The Lagos State COVID-19 Think-tank, a Potential Framework for Decision-making in a Pandemic Era.

Lagos state remains the epicenter of COVID-19 infection in Nigeria. To facilitate the emergency preparedness and response to COVID-19, the State Governor and Incident Commander constituted a Think Tank comprising 13 experts from various disciplines committed to the health of the public. The Think Tank assisted the government with decision-making strategies and supported the emergency operation centre (EOC) for the COVID-19 response. Their main achievements were developing frameworks for decision-making and strategies for phased easing of the State-wide lockdown. The challenges encountered were that it was often viewed as a parallel structure to the EOC and separated from the traditional civil service structure; causing some reluctance to implement ideas generated by the Think Tank. Nevertheless, the Think Tank played an important role during the COVID-19 pandemic; the lessons learned might help other states and resource-limited countries wishing to adopt this approach to emergency response.

RésuméL'État de Lagos reste l'épicentre de l'infection au COVID-19 au Nigeria. Pour faciliter la préparation et la réponse aux situations d'urgence (EPR) face au COVID-19, le gouverneur de l'État a constitué un groupe de réflexion composé de 13 experts de diverses disciplines. Le concept du groupe de réflexion était d'impliquer le secteur privé et le milieu universitaire dans la réponse COVID de l'État de Lagos, reconnaissant qu'un résultat réussi de l'EPR nécessite une expertise dont certaines n'existaient pas au sein de la fonction publique. Le Think Tank a aidé le gouvernement à élaborer des stratégies de prise de décision et a soutenu le centre des opérations d'urgence (COU) pour la réponse à la COVID-19. Leurs principales réalisations ont été l'élaboration de cadres de prise de décision et de stratégies d'assouplissement progressif du confinement à l'échelle de l'État. Les défis rencontrés étaient qu'il était souvent considéré comme une structure parallèle à l'EOC et séparé de la structure traditionnelle de la fonction publique; provoquant une certaine réticence à mettre en œuvre les idées générées. Le groupe de réflexion de l'État de Lagos a démontré un modèle réussi de partenariat public-privé dans le domaine de la santé mis en œuvre par une diversité d'acteurs dans des secteurs critiques. Cela pourrait être considéré comme un modèle utile pour faire face à une myriade de crises similaires auxquelles le secteur de la santé est souvent confronté. Les enseignements tirés pourraient aider d'autres États et pays aux ressources limitées souhaitant adopter cette approche dans les interventions d'urgence.

How Global Collaboration Can Improve the Medical Countermeasure Life Cycle for Infectious Disease Outbreaks.

Infectious disease outbreaks have become increasingly common and require global partnership for adequate preparedness and response. During outbreaks, medical countermeasures (MCMs)-vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics-need to reach patients quickly. Recent outbreaks exemplify that products with regulatory approval can expand access and reach patients quicker than investigational products. Unfortunately, insufficient funding globally and differences in funders' prioritization puts gains and future efforts at risk. Of primary concern is (1) lack of a feasible regulatory path and clinical capability to achieve regulatory approval for new MCMs for many diseases; and (2) the need for partners with the mandate, funding, and capabilities to support long-term sustainment of manufacturing capability and stockpiling of licensed products. Without collaboration, the global community runs the risk of losing the capabilities built through years of investment and being underprepared to combat future threats. Synergies between funders are critical to create long-term sustainment of products to ensure access.

Utilizing disease transmission and response capacities to optimize covid-19 control in Malaysia.

OBJECTIVES: Public Health Social Measures (PHSM) such as movement restriction movement needed to be adjusted accordingly during the COVID-19 pandemic to ensure low disease transmission alongside adequate health system capacities based on the COVID-19 situational matrix proposed by the World Health Organization (WHO). This paper aims to develop a mechanism to determine the COVID-19 situational matrix to adjust movement restriction intensity for the control of COVID-19 in Malaysia. METHODS: Several epidemiological indicators were selected based on the WHO PHSM interim guidance report and validated individually and in several combinations to estimate the community transmission level (CT) and health system response capacity (RC) variables. Correlation analysis between CT and RC with COVID-19 cases was performed to determine the most appropriate CT and RC variables. Subsequently, the CT and RC variables were combined to form a composite COVID-19 situational matrix (SL). The SL matrix was validated using correlation analysis with COVID-19 case trends. Subsequently, an automated web-based system that generated daily CT, RC, and SL was developed. RESULTS: CT and RC variables were estimated using case incidence and hospitalization rate; Hospital bed capacity and COVID-19 ICU occupancy respectively. The estimated CT and RC were strongly correlated [ρ = 0.806 (95% CI 0.752, 0.848); and ρ = 0.814 (95% CI 0.778, 0.839), p < 0.001] with the COVID-19 cases. The estimated SL was strongly correlated with COVID-19 cases (ρ = 0.845, p < 0.001) and responded well to the various COVID-19 case trends during the pandemic. SL changes occurred earlier during the increase of cases but slower during the decrease, indicating a conservative response. The automated web-based system developed produced daily real-time CT, RC, and SL for the COVID-19 pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: The indicators selected and combinations formed were able to generate validated daily CT and RC levels for Malaysia. Subsequently, the CT and RC levels were able to provide accurate and sensitive information for the estimation of SL which provided valuable evidence on the progression of the pandemic and movement restriction adjustment for the control of Malaysia.

The COVID-19 pandemic impacted the activities of the Schistosomiasis Control Program in Brazil: is the goal of controlling the disease by 2030 at risk?

BACKGROUND: Schistosomiasis continues to represent a serious public health problem in Brazil. With the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, several control strategies were suspended, probably compromising the goals of eradicating the disease in the country. We aimed to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Schistosomiasis Control Program (PCE) actions in all endemic states of Brazil. METHODS: We performed an ecological study using spatial analysis techniques. The PCE variables assessed were the population surveyed, the number of Kato-Katz tests, positive cases of schistosomiasis and the percentage of cases treated between 2015 and 2021. The percent change was calculated to verify if there was an increase or decrease in 2020 and 2021, along with time trend analyses provided by the Joinpoint model. Spatial distribution maps were elaborated considering the percent change. RESULTS: The surveyed population decreased in 2020 (-65.38%) and 2021 (-37.94%) across Brazil. There was a proportional reduction in the number of Kato-Katz tests (2020, -67.48%; 2021, -40.52%), a decrease in the percentage of positive cases (2020, -71.16%; 2021, -40.5%) and a reduction in the percentage of treated cases (2020, -72.09%; 2021, -41.67%). Time trend analyses showed a decreasing trend in most PCE variables. CONCLUSIONS: The PCE activities were impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil and PCE strategies must be urgently reviewed, focusing on investments in all endemic areas.

Infectious Disease Preparedness for Homeless Populations: Recommendations from a Community-Academic Partnership.

BACKGROUND: People experiencing homelessness are at increased risk of infectious disease transmission due to congregate living conditions, barriers to healthcare, and excess burden of underlying chronic disease. OBJECTIVES: We are a multisectoral community-academic partnership working to address the intersecting crises of homelessness and health disparities in Tippecanoe County, Indiana. We offer key recommendations for infectious disease preparedness and risk mitigation for homeless populations based on our ongoing community-based participatory research and lessons learned through COVID-19 response and Monkeypox preparations. LESSONS LEARNED: Infectious disease preparedness and response in homeless populations requires strong local partnerships; ongoing training and support for staff and volunteers of homeless shelters and service agencies; tailored outreach, education, and communication with people experiencing homelessness; and standardized processes for creating, disseminating, enforcing, and evaluating public health policies in homeless shelters. Consistency and open communication are key to a successful community-academic partnership. CONCLUSIONS: Community-academic partnerships are critical to effective infectious disease preparedness in homeless populations. The lessons learned from community-based participatory research with homeless communities and multisectoral partners on the frontline can improve future outbreak and pandemic response for people experiencing homelessness and other vulnerable communities in the United States.

Trajectory of COVID-19 response and management strategy in China: scientific rationale driven strategy adjustments.

The pneumonia caused by novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 infection in early December 2019, which was later named coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by the World Health Organization (WHO), rapidly spread across the world. China has made extraordinary efforts to this unprecedented pandemic, put its response and control at a very high level of infectious disease management (Category B but with measures for Category A), given top priority to the people and their lives, and balanced the pandemic control and socio-economic development. After more than three years' fighting against this disease, China downgraded the management of COVID-19 to Category B infectious disease on January 8, 2023 and the WHO declared the end of public health emergency on May 5, 2023. However, the ending of pandemic does not mean that the disease is no longer a health threat. Experiences against COVID-19 from China and the whole world should be learned to prepare well for the future public health emergencies. This article gives a systematic review of the trajectory of COVID-19 development in China, summarizes the critical policy arrangements and provides evidence for the adjustment during policy making process, so as to share experiences with international community and contribute to the global health for all humanity.

The impact of risk perceptions and belief in conspiracy theories on COVID-19 pandemic-related behaviours.

Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, conspiracy theories about the virus spread rapidly, and whilst governments across the globe put in place different restrictions and guidelines to contain the pandemic, these were not universally adhered to. This research examined the association between pandemic related risk perceptions, belief in conspiracy theories, and compliance with COVID-19 public guidelines amongst a UK sample (n = 368). Participants rated their level of concern for a series of potential risks during the pandemic (to the economy, personal health, freedom, media integrity and health risk to others). Participants also rated their level of belief in different conspiracy theories and self-reported their behaviour during the first UK lockdown. Mediational analyses showed that stronger belief in conspiracy theories was associated with perceptions of lower risk to health and higher risk to the economy and freedom, which in turn were associated with lower compliance with COVID-19 related governmental guidelines. Perception of information transparency risks did not mediate the association between belief in conspiracy theories and compliant behaviours. These results highlight the key role that risk perception may play in translating belief in conspiracy theories into low compliance with governmental COVID-19 related guidelines. Our findings suggest new patterns with respect to the relationship between conspiracy theory adherence and salience of different risk perceptions amidst the pandemic, which could have implications for the development of public health messaging and communication interventions.

Evolution of resistance to COVID-19 vaccination with dynamic social distancing.

The greatest hope for a return to normalcy following the COVID-19 pandemic is worldwide vaccination. Yet, a relaxation of social distancing that allows increased transmissibility, coupled with selection pressure due to vaccination, will probably lead to the emergence of vaccine resistance. We analyse the evolutionary dynamics of COVID-19 in the presence of dynamic contact reduction and in response to vaccination. We use infection and vaccination data from six different countries. We show that under slow vaccination, resistance is very likely to appear even if social distancing is maintained. Under fast vaccination, the emergence of mutants can be prevented if social distancing is maintained during vaccination. We analyse multiple human factors that affect the evolutionary potential of the virus, including the extent of dynamic social distancing, vaccination campaigns, vaccine design, boosters and vaccine hesitancy. We provide guidelines for policies that aim to minimize the probability of emergence of vaccine-resistant variants.

Model-Estimated Association Between Simulated US Elementary School-Related SARS-CoV-2 Transmission, Mitigation Interventions, and Vaccine Coverage Across Local Incidence Levels.

Importance: With recent surges in COVID-19 incidence and vaccine authorization for children aged 5 to 11 years, elementary schools face decisions about requirements for masking and other mitigation measures. These decisions require explicit determination of community objectives (eg, acceptable risk level for in-school SARS-CoV-2 transmission) and quantitative estimates of the consequences of changing mitigation measures. Objective: To estimate the association between adding or removing in-school mitigation measures (eg, masks) and COVID-19 outcomes within an elementary school community at varying student vaccination and local incidence rates. Design, Setting, and Participants: This decision analytic model used an agent-based model to simulate SARS-CoV-2 transmission within a school community, with a simulated population of students, teachers and staff, and their household members (ie, immediate school community). Transmission was evaluated for a range of observed local COVID-19 incidence (0-50 cases per 100 000 residents per day, assuming 33% of all infections detected). The population used in the model reflected the mean size of a US elementary school, including 638 students and 60 educators and staff members in 6 grades with 5 classes per grade. Exposures: Variant infectiousness (representing wild-type virus, Alpha variant, and Delta variant), mitigation effectiveness (0%-100% reduction in the in-school secondary attack rate, representing increasingly intensive combinations of mitigations including masking and ventilation), and student vaccination levels were varied. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcomes were (1) probability of at least 1 in-school transmission per month and (2) mean increase in total infections per month among the immediate school community associated with a reduction in mitigation; multiple decision thresholds were estimated for objectives associated with each outcome. Sensitivity analyses on adult vaccination uptake, vaccination effectiveness, and testing approaches (for selected scenarios) were conducted. Results: With student vaccination coverage of 70% or less and moderate assumptions about mitigation effectiveness (eg, masking), mitigation could only be reduced when local case incidence was 14 or fewer cases per 100 000 residents per day to keep the mean additional cases associated with reducing mitigation to 5 or fewer cases per month. To keep the probability of any in-school transmission to less than 50% per month, the local case incidence would have to be 4 or fewer cases per 100 000 residents per day. Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, in-school mitigation measures (eg, masks) and student vaccinations were associated with substantial reductions in transmissions and infections, but the level of reduction varied across local incidence. These findings underscore the potential role for responsive plans that deploy mitigation strategies based on local COVID-19 incidence, vaccine uptake, and explicit consideration of community objectives.

Adapting obstetric and neonatal services during the COVID-19 pandemic: a scoping review.

BACKGROUND: The provision of care to pregnant persons and neonates must continue through pandemics. To maintain quality of care, while minimizing physical contact during the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome-related Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV2) pandemic, hospitals and international organizations issued recommendations on maternity and neonatal care delivery and restructuring of clinical and academic services. Early in the pandemic, recommendations relied on expert opinion, and offered a one-size-fits-all set of guidelines. Our aim was to examine these recommendations and provide the rationale and context to guide clinicians, administrators, educators, and researchers, on how to adapt maternity and neonatal services during the pandemic, regardless of jurisdiction. METHOD: Our initial database search used Medical subject headings and free-text search terms related to coronavirus infections, pregnancy and neonatology, and summarized relevant recommendations from international society guidelines. Subsequent targeted searches to December 30, 2020, included relevant publications in general medical and obstetric journals, and updated society recommendations. RESULTS: We identified 846 titles and abstracts, of which 105 English-language publications fulfilled eligibility criteria and were included in our study. A multidisciplinary team representing clinicians from various disciplines, academics, administrators and training program directors critically appraised the literature to collate recommendations by multiple jurisdictions, including a quaternary care Canadian hospital, to provide context and rationale for viable options. INTERPRETATION: There are different schools of thought regarding effective practices in obstetric and neonatal services. Our critical review presents the rationale to effectively modify services, based on the phase of the pandemic, the prevalence of infection in the population, and resource availability.