The economic burden of type 2 diabetes on the public healthcare system in Kenya: a cost of illness study.

BACKGROUND: The burden of chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is a growing public health concern. The availability of cost-of-illness data, particularly public healthcare costs for NCDs, is limited in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), yet such data evidence is needed for policy action. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to estimate the economic burden of type 2 diabetes (T2D) on Kenya's public healthcare system in 2021 and project costs for 2045. METHODS: This was a cost-of-illness study using the prevalence-based bottom-up costing approach to estimate the economic burden of T2D in the year 2021. We further conducted projections on the estimated costs for the year 2045. The costs were estimated corresponding to the care, treatment, and management of diabetes and some diabetes complications based on the primary data collected from six healthcare facilities in Nairobi and secondary costing data from previous costing studies in low and middle-income countries (LMICs). The data capture and costing analysis were done in Microsoft Excel 16, and sensitivity analysis was conducted on all the parameters to estimate the cost changes. RESULTS: The total cost of managing T2D for the healthcare system in Kenya was estimated to be US$ 635 million (KES 74,521 million) in 2021. This was an increase of US$ 2 million (KES 197 million) considering the screening costs of undiagnosed T2D in the country. The major cost driver representing 59% of the overall costs was attributed to T2D complications, with nephropathy having the highest estimated costs of care and management (US$ 332 million (KES 36, 457 million). The total cost for T2D was projected to rise to US$ 1.6 billion (KES 177 billion) in 2045. CONCLUSION: This study shows that T2D imposes a huge burden on Kenya's healthcare system. There is a need for government and societal action to develop and implement policies that prevent T2D, and appropriately plan care for those diagnosed with T2D.

Measuring the harm of sugar sweetened beverages and internalities associated with it.

Introduction: Obesity, which is partly driven by the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), significantly increases the risk of type-2 diabetes and cardiovascular diseases, leading to substantial health and economic burdens. Methods: This study aims to quantify the monetary value of health harms caused by SSB consumption, along with the associated internalities, through a contingent valuation survey. The results are crucial for determining the socially optimal tax rate. Results: We surveyed 293 residents of Wellington, New Zealand, to assess their willingness to pay (WTP) for reductions in the risks of diabetes, stroke, and heart disease associated with SSB intake. Logistic regression analysis revealed the marginal WTP for a 1% risk reduction in diabetes, stroke, and heart disease to be NZ$404.86, NZ$809.04, and NZ$1,236.84, respectively. Based on these values, we estimate the marginal harm from SSB consumption to be approximately NZ$17.37 per liter in New Zealand, with internalities amounting to NZ$6.43 per liter, suggesting an optimal tax rate of NZ$6.49 per liter. Discussion: Implementing such a tax is feasible and would likely double or triple the price of SSBs in New Zealand.

Household economic burden of type-2 diabetes and hypertension comorbidity care in urban-poor Ghana: a mixed methods study.

BACKGROUND: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) predispose households to exorbitant healthcare expenditures in health systems where there is no access to effective financial protection for healthcare. This study assessed the economic burden associated with the rising burden of type-2 diabetes (T2D) and hypertension comorbidity management, and its implications for healthcare seeking in urban Accra. METHODS: A convergent parallel mixed-methods study design was used. Quantitative sociodemographic and cost data were collected through survey from a random community-based sample of 120 adults aged 25 years and older and living with comorbid T2D and hypertension in Ga Mashie, Accra, Ghana in November and December 2022. The monthly economic cost of T2D and hypertension comorbidity care was estimated using a descriptive cost-of-illness analysis technique from the perspective of patients. Thirteen focus group discussions (FGDs) were conducted among community members with and without comorbid T2D and hypertension. The FGDs were analysed using deductive and inductive thematic approaches. Findings from the survey and qualitative study were integrated in the discussion. RESULTS: Out of a total of 120 respondents who self-reported comorbid T2D and hypertension, 23 (19.2%) provided complete healthcare cost data. The direct cost of managing T2D and hypertension comorbidity constituted almost 94% of the monthly economic cost of care, and the median direct cost of care was US$19.30 (IQR:10.55-118.88). Almost a quarter of the respondents pay for their healthcare through co-payment and insurance jointly, and 42.9% pay out-of-pocket (OOP). Patients with lower socioeconomic status incurred a higher direct cost burden compared to those in the higher socioeconomic bracket. The implications of the high economic burden resulting from self-funding of healthcare were found from the qualitative study to be: 1) poor access to quality healthcare; (2) poor medication adherence; (3) aggravated direct non-medical and indirect cost; and (4) psychosocial support to help cope with the cost burden. CONCLUSION: The economic burden associated with healthcare in instances of comorbid T2D and hypertension can significantly impact household budget and cause financial difficulty or impoverishment. Policies targeted at effectively managing NCDs should focus on strengthening a comprehensive and reliable National Health Insurance Scheme coverage for care of chronic conditions.

Modeling the Clinical and Economic Burden of Therapeutic Inertia in People with Type 2 Diabetes in Saudi Arabia.

INTRODUCTION: Therapeutic inertia in type 2 diabetes, defined as a failure to intensify treatment despite poor glycemic control, can arise due to a variety of factors, despite evidence linking improved glycemic control with reductions in diabetes-related complications. The present study aimed to evaluate the health and economic burden of therapeutic inertia in people with type 2 diabetes in Saudi Arabia. METHODS: The IQVIA Core Diabetes Model (v.9.0) was used to evaluate outcomes. Baseline cohort characteristics were sourced from Saudi-specific data, with baseline glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) tested at 8.0%, 9.0%, and 10.0%. Modeled subjects were brought to an HbA1c target of 7.0% immediately or after delays of 1-5 years across time horizons of 3-50 years. Outcomes were discounted annually at 3.0%. Costs were accounted from a societal perspective and expressed in 2023 Saudi Arabian Riyals (SAR). RESULTS: Immediate glycemic control was associated with improved or equal life expectancy and quality-adjusted life expectancy and cost savings in all scenarios compared with delays in achieving target HbA1c. Combined cost savings ranged from SAR 411 (EUR 102) per person with a baseline HbA1c of 8.0% versus a 1-year delay over a 3-year time horizon, to SAR 21,422 (EUR 5291) per person with a baseline HbA1c of 10.0% versus a 5-year delay over a 50-year time horizon. Discounted life expectancy and quality-adjusted life expectancy were projected to improve by up to 0.4 years and 0.5 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), respectively, with immediate glycemic control. CONCLUSION: Therapeutic inertia was associated with a substantial health and economic burden in Saudi Arabia. Interventions and initiatives that can help to reduce therapeutic inertia are likely to improve health outcomes and reduce healthcare expenditure.

Utilization and cost of non-insulin glucose-lowering drugs in Australia from 2013 to 2023.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the utilization and costs of non-insulin glucose-lowering drugs (GLDs) in Australia from 2013 to 2023. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of the Australian Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) administrative dataset of 118 727 494 GLD prescriptions. The main outcome measures were the annual number of GLD prescriptions dispensed, accounting for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) prevalence and healthcare system costs, adjusted for inflation. RESULTS: Utilization of GLDs doubled from 6.4 million prescriptions in 2013 to 15.6 million in 2023. The average annual percent increase in utilization was 8.1%, compared to the average annual increase in prevalence of T2DM of 1.8%. The biggest change was in sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors, for which there was an average annual increase in utilization of 59.4% (95% confidence interval [CI] 51.7%, 68.2%; p < 0.05) from 2014 (first full year of PBS listing), followed by glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs), which showed an increase of 31.4% (95% CI 28.5%, 33.8%; p < 0.05) annually (2013 to 2023). Dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitor utilization tripled, with an average annual increase of 10.9% (95% CI 8.1%, 13.8%; p < 0.05), but this plateaued from 2020. Metformin utilization increased by 4.7% (95% CI 2.0%, 6.9%; p < 0.05) annually. In contrast, sulphonylurea, glitazone and acarbose utilization declined. Total GLD costs increased threefold over the same period. Despite only accounting for 11.7% of utilization, GLP-1RAs contributed to 35% of the costs. CONCLUSION: Utilization of GLDs doubled, and associated costs tripled over the past 11 years, with no sign of either utilization or costs plateauing, predominantly due to increased GLP-1RA and SGLT2 inhibitor prescribing.

The Impact of Unrelated Future Medical Costs on Economic Evaluation Outcomes for Different Models of Diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: This study leveraged data from 11 independent international diabetes models to evaluate the impact of unrelated future medical costs on the outcomes of health economic evaluations in diabetes mellitus. METHODS: Eleven models simulated the progression of diabetes and occurrence of its complications in hypothetical cohorts of individuals with type 1 (T1D) or type 2 (T2D) diabetes over the remaining lifetime of the patients to evaluate the cost effectiveness of three hypothetical glucose improvement interventions versus a hypothetical control intervention. All models used the same set of costs associated with diabetes complications and interventions, using a United Kingdom healthcare system perspective. Standard utility/disutility values associated with diabetes-related complications were used. Unrelated future medical costs were assumed equal for all interventions and control arms. The statistical significance of changes on the total lifetime costs, incremental costs and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) before and after adding the unrelated future medical costs were analysed using t-test and summarized in incremental cost-effectiveness diagrams by type of diabetes. RESULTS: The inclusion of unrelated costs increased mean total lifetime costs substantially. However, there were no significant differences between the mean incremental costs and ICERs before and after adding unrelated future medical costs. Unrelated future medical cost inclusion did not alter the original conclusions of the diabetes modelling evaluations. CONCLUSIONS: For diabetes, with many costly noncommunicable diseases already explicitly modelled as complications, and with many interventions having predominantly an effect on the improvement of quality of life, unrelated future medical costs have a small impact on the outcomes of health economic evaluations.

GLP-1 Medication Use for Type 2 Diabetes Has Soared.

This JAMA Data Brief discusses new data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, or MEPS, Household Component, a household survey sponsored by the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality.

Out-of-pocket direct cost of ambulatory care of type 2 diabetes in Delhi: Estimates from the Delhi diabetes community-II (DEDICOM-II) survey.

BACKGROUND & AIM: Much of the cost data from India is restricted to patients recruited purely from healthcare institutions and do not explore determinants. Therefore, the out of pocket expenditure for ambulatory diabetes care was evaluated in Delhi. METHODS: The DEDICOM-II survey used a two-stage probability-proportionate-to-size(systematic) cluster design. Thirty clusters were chosen to recruit 25 to 30 subjects per area. We used questionnaires to estimate the direct out-of-pocket expenditure (OOPE) on drugs, investigations, consultation and travel, excluding hospitalization, and then analysed its determinants and impact on quality of care. RESULTS: We enrolled 843 subjects with a mean age of 53.1 years. The annual direct OOPE on ambulatory care of diabetes was US$ 116.3 (95 % CI 93.8-138.9) or INR 8074.8 (95 % CI 6512.9-9636.7), corresponding to 3.6 %(95 % CI 2.9-4.3) of the yearly family income. The burden of expenses was disproportionately higher for those visiting private providers from lower-income groups(19.1 %). Duration of disease and treatment with insulin predicted higher annual OOPE while care at public facilities was less expensive. Cost was higher for those adhering to the recommended processes of care. Quality of care was better for institutional care and worse for alternative medicine or self-care. CONCLUSIONS: The study provides representative estimates of the high cost of diabetes management in Delhi across the socio-economic and care provider spectra. Poorer patients suffer a high financial burden from diabetes, highlighting the need for enhancing equity in diabetes care.

Family out-of-pocket expenditure for type 2 diabetes mellitus care and percentage of family income.

BACKGROUND: Type 2 diabetes has economic implications involving family income and out-of-pocket spending. OBJECTIVE: Determine family out-of-pocket expenditure for type 2 diabetes mellitus care and percentage of family income. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Study of family out-of-pocket spending in families with patients with type 2 diabetes treated at primary care level. Out-of-pocket expenses included expenses for transportation, food-drinks, and external medications. Family income corresponded to the total economic income contributed by family members. The percentage of out-of-pocket spending in relation to family income was identified with the relationship between these two variables. Statistical analysis included averages and percentages. RESULTS: The annual family out-of-pocket expenditure on transportation was $2,621.24, the family out-of-pocket expenditure on food and beverages was $1,075.67, and the family out-of-pocket expenditure on external medications was $722.08. The total annual family out-of-pocket expense was $4,418.89 and corresponds to 4.73% of family income. CONCLUSION: The family out-of-pocket expense in the family with a patient with diabetes mellitus 2 was $4,418.89 and represents 4.73% of the family income.

ANTECEDENTES: La diabetes tipo 2 tiene implicaciones económicas en el ingreso familiar y el gasto de bolsillo. OBJETIVO: Determinar el gasto de bolsillo familiar en la atención de la diabetes mellitus tipo 2 y el porcentaje que representa en el ingreso familiar. MATERIAL Y MÉTODOS: Estudio de gasto de bolsillo de las familias con pacientes con diabetes tipo 2 atendidos en el primer nivel de atención. El gasto de bolsillo familiar incluyó gasto en traslado, alimentos-bebidas y medicamentos externos. El ingreso familiar correspondió al total de ingresos económicos aportados por los miembros de la familia. El porcentaje del gasto de bolsillo con relación al ingreso familiar se identificó con la relación entre estas dos variables. El análisis estadístico incluyó promedios y porcentajes. RESULTADOS: El gasto de bolsillo familiar anual en transporte fue de $2621.24, en alimentos y bebidas fue de $1075.67 y en medicamentos externos fue de $722.08. El gasto familiar de bolsillo total anual fue de $4418.89 y correspondió a 4.73 % del ingreso familiar. CONCLUSIÓN: El gasto de bolsillo en las familias con un paciente con diabetes mellitus tipo 2 fue de $4418.89 y representó 4.73 % del ingreso familiar.

Financial Benefits of Renal Dose-Adjusted Dipeptidyl Peptidase-4 Inhibitors for Patients with Type 2 Diabetes and Chronic Kidney Disease.

BACKGRUOUND: Dipeptidyl peptidase-4 (DPP4) inhibitors are frequently prescribed for patients with type 2 diabetes; however, their cost can pose a significant barrier for those with impaired kidney function. This study aimed to estimate the economic benefits of substituting non-renal dose-adjusted (NRDA) DPP4 inhibitors with renal dose-adjusted (RDA) DPP4 inhibitors in patients with both impaired kidney function and type 2 diabetes. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study was conducted from January 1, 2012 to December 31, 2018, using data obtained from common data models of five medical centers in Korea. Model 1 applied the prescription pattern of participants with preserved kidney function to those with impaired kidney function. In contrast, model 2 replaced all NRDA DPP4 inhibitors with RDA DPP4 inhibitors, adjusting the doses of RDA DPP4 inhibitors based on individual kidney function. The primary outcome was the cost difference between the two models. RESULTS: In total, 67,964,996 prescription records were analyzed. NRDA DPP4 inhibitors were more frequently prescribed to patients with impaired kidney function than in those with preserved kidney function (25.7%, 51.3%, 64.3%, and 71.6% in patients with estimated glomerular filtration rates [eGFRs] of ≥60, <60, <45, and <30 mL/min/1.73 m2, respectively). When model 1 was applied, the cost savings per year were 7.6% for eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 and 30.4% for eGFR <30 mL/min/1.73 m2. According to model 2, 15.4% to 51.2% per year could be saved depending on kidney impairment severity. CONCLUSION: Adjusting the doses of RDA DPP4 inhibitors based on individual kidney function could alleviate the economic burden associated with medical expenses.

Metformin in the Diabetes Prevention Program 3-year trial: The cost-effectiveness that never was.

AIM: To highlight oversimplified quality-adjusted life year (QALY) calculations and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) regarding lifestyle metformin and placebo as flaws in the trial-based (Diabetes Prevention Program) cost-effectiveness analysis. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We revised the QALY calculations to conform to convention and calculated appropriate ICERs using both original and revised QALYs results. We used several additional health economics tools to present results, showing the consistency of each method and the added value of each. We presented net monetary benefits, assessed decision uncertainty and calculated net losses. We also used graphics, making correct interpretation clearer and allowing illustration and calculation of technical and economic inefficiencies of treatments that were not cost-effective. RESULTS: ICERs with either QALY calculation indicated that metformin was technically and economically inefficient and not cost-effective. There was virtually no decision uncertainty. All methods employed pointed to an identical conclusion. CONCLUSIONS: In contrast to original claims, although lifestyle was cost-effective in diabetes prevention, metformin was not, and acting otherwise imposes significant monetary and health costs. Various available tools of economic evaluation would probably have prevented the original misinterpretation by the authors had they been used. The varied tools implemented here illustrate with a common example their consistency and value to the field, showing how to depict the results in various ways.

State Out-Of-Pocket Caps On Insulin Costs: No Significant Increase In Claims Or Utilization.

Nearly all patients with type 1 diabetes and 20-30 percent of patients with type 2 diabetes use insulin to manage glycemic control. Approximately one-quarter of patients who use insulin report underuse because of cost. In response, more than twenty states have implemented monthly caps on insulin out-of-pocket spending, ranging from $25 to $100. Using a difference-in-differences approach, this study evaluated whether state-level caps on insulin out-of-pocket spending change insulin usage among commercially insured enrollees. The study included 33,134 people ages 18-64 who had type 1 diabetes or who used insulin to manage type 2 diabetes with commercial insurance coverage that was subject to state-level oversight and was included in the 25 percent sample of the IQVIA PharMetrics database during 2018-21. Insulin out-of-pocket caps did not significantly increase quarterly insulin claims for enrollees who had type 1 diabetes or who used insulin to manage type 2 diabetes. State-level caps on insulin out-of-pocket spending for commercial enrollees did not significantly increase insulin use; that may be in part because of out-of-pocket expenses being lower than cap amounts.

Prescription Fills for Semaglutide Products by Payment Method.

This cross-sectional study examines trends in US prescription fills for semaglutide products by payment method between January 2021 and December 2023.

Comparing the effects of biguanides and dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors on cardio-cerebrovascular outcomes, nephropathy, retinopathy, neuropathy, and treatment costs in diabetic patients.

BACKGROUND: Western guidelines often recommend biguanides as the first-line treatment for diabetes. However, dipeptidyl peptidase-4 (DPP-4) inhibitors, alongside biguanides, are increasingly used as the first-line therapy for type 2 diabetes (T2DM) in Japan. However, there have been few studies comparing the effectiveness of biguanides and DPP-4 inhibitors with respect to diabetes-related complications and cardio-cerebrovascular events over the long term, as well as the costs associated. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to compare the outcomes of patients with T2DM who initiate treatment with a biguanide versus a DPP-4 inhibitor and the long-term costs associated. METHODS: We performed a cohort study between 2012 and 2021 using a new-user design and the Shizuoka Kokuho database. Patients were included if they were diagnosed with T2DM. The primary outcome was the incidence of cardio-cerebrovascular events or mortality from the initial month of treatment; and the secondary outcomes were the incidences of related complications (nephropathy, renal failure, retinopathy, and peripheral neuropathy) and the daily cost of the drugs used. Individuals who had experienced prior events during the preceding year were excluded, and events within 6 months of the start of the study period were censored. Propensity score matching was performed to compare between two groups. RESULTS: The matched 1:5 cohort comprised 529 and 2,116 patients who were initially treated with a biguanide or a DPP-4 inhibitor, respectively. Although there were no significant differences in the incidence of cardio-cerebrovascular events or mortality and T2DM-related complications between the two groups (p = 0.139 and p = 0.595), daily biguanide administration was significantly cheaper (mean daily cost for biguanides, 61.1 JPY; for DPP-4 inhibitors, 122.7 JPY; p<0.001). CONCLUSION: In patients with T2DM who initiate pharmacotherapy, there were no differences in the long-term incidences of cardio-cerebrovascular events or complications associated with biguanide or DPP-4 use, but the former was less costly.

Continuous glucose monitoring for self-management of diabetes in people living with type 2 diabetes mellitus on basal insulin therapy: A microsimulation model and cost-effectiveness analysis from a US perspective with relevance to Medicaid.

BACKGROUND: Reducing the risks of complications is a primary goal of diabetes management, with effective glycemic control a key factor. Glucose monitoring using continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) technology is an important part of diabetes self-management, helping patients reach and maintain targeted glucose and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) levels. Although clinical guidelines recommended CGM use, coverage by Medicaid is limited, likely because of cost concerns. OBJECTIVE: To assess the cost-effectiveness of FreeStyle Libre CGM systems, compared with capillary-based self-monitoring of blood glucose (SMBG), in US individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus using basal insulin. METHODS: A patient-level microsimulation model was used to compare CGM with SMBG for a population of 10,000 patients. A 10-year horizon was used, with an annual discount rate of 3.0% for costs and utilities. Model population characteristics were based on US national epidemiology data. Patient outcomes were based on published clinical trials and real-world studies. Annual costs, reflective of 2023 values, included CGM and SMBG acquisition costs and the costs of treating diabetic ketoacidosis, severe hypoglycemia, and diabetes complications. The effect of CGM was modeled as a persistent 1.1% reduction in HbA1c relative to SMBG based on US real-world evidence. Disutilities were based on published clinical trials and other relevant literature. The primary outcome was cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. Sensitivity analyses were performed to test the validity of the model results when accounting for a plausible variation of inputs. RESULTS: In the base case analysis, CGM was dominant to SMBG, providing more QALYs (6.18 vs 5.97) at a lower cost ($70,137 vs $71,809) over the 10-year time horizon. A $10,456 increase in glucose monitoring costs was offset by a $12,127 reduction in treatment costs. Cost savings reflected avoidance of acute diabetic events (savings owing to reductions in severe hypoglycemia and diabetic ketoacidosis were $271 and $2,159, respectively) and a reduced cumulative incidence of diabetes complications, particularly renal failure (saving $5,292), myocardial infarction (saving $1,996), and congestive heart failure (saving $1,061). Scenario analyses were consistent with the base case results, and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for CGM vs SMBG ranged from dominant to cost-effective. In probabilistic analysis, CGM was 100% likely to be cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $50,000/QALY. CONCLUSIONS: CGM is cost-effective compared with SMBG for US patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus receiving basal insulin therapy. This suggests that state Medicaid programs could benefit from broader coverage of CGM.

Health-related quality of life assessment in health economic analyses involving type 2 diabetes.

AIM: Incorporating health-related quality of life (HRQoL) measures into health economic analyses can help to provide evidence to inform decisions about how to improve patient outcomes in the most cost-effective manner. The aim of this narrative review was to assess which HRQoL instruments have been used in economic evaluations of type 2 diabetes management including in Indigenous communities. METHOD: MEDLINE (Ovid), Embase (Ovid) and Cochrane were searched from inception to June 2022. Studies included patients with type 2 diabetes; economic evaluations, derived scores from direct questioning of individuals; and were in English. Records were assessed for bias using the JBI critical appraisal tools. RESULTS: A total of 3737 records were identified, with 22 publications meeting the criteria for inclusion. Across those 22 articles, nine HRQoL instruments had been utilised. Generic tools were most frequently used to measure HRQoL, including EQ-5D (-3 L and -5 L) (n = 10, 38%); SF-12 (n = 5, 19%); and SF-36 (n = 4, 15%). Two tools addressing the specific stressors faced by people with type 2 diabetes were utilised: Problem Areas In Diabetes tool (n = 1, 4%) and Diabetes Distress Scale (n = 1, 4%). Two publications reported whether the study population included Indigenous peoples. CONCLUSION: A wide range of HRQoL instruments are used in economic evaluations of type 2 diabetes management, with the most frequent being varying forms of the EQ-5D. Few economic evaluations noted whether Indigenous peoples were featured in the study population. More research into HRQoL in people living with type 2 diabetes is urgently needed to improve evidence on effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of interventions.

Examining the Impact of Structural Uncertainty Across 10 Type 2 Diabetes Models: Results From the 2022 Mount Hood Challenge.

OBJECTIVES: The Mount Hood Diabetes Challenge Network aimed to examine the impact of model structural uncertainty on the estimated cost-effectiveness of interventions for type 2 diabetes. METHODS: Ten independent modeling groups completed a blinded simulation exercise to estimate the cost-effectiveness of 3 interventions in 2 type 2 diabetes populations. Modeling groups were provided with a common baseline population, cost and utility values associated with different model health states, and instructions regarding time horizon and discounting. We collated the results to identify variation in predictions of net monetary benefit (NMB) and the drivers of those differences. RESULTS: Overall, modeling groups agreed which interventions had a positive NMB (ie, were cost-effective), Although estimates of NMB varied substantially-by up to £23 696 for 1 intervention. Variation was mainly driven through differences in risk equations for complications of diabetes and their implementation between models. The number of modeled health states was also a significant predictor of NMB. CONCLUSIONS: This exercise demonstrates that structural uncertainty between different health economic models affects cost-effectiveness estimates. Although it is reassuring that a decision maker would likely reach similar conclusions on which interventions were cost-effective using most models, the range in numerical estimates generated across different models would nevertheless be important for price-setting negotiations with intervention developers. Minimizing the impact of structural uncertainty on healthcare decision making therefore remains an important priority. Model registries, which record and compare the impact of structural assumptions, offer one potential avenue to improve confidence in the robustness of health economic modeling.