Slaying the Serpent: A Research Agenda to Expand Intervention Development and Accelerate Guinea Worm Eradication Efforts.

Dracunculiasis, also known as Guinea worm disease, is targeted to become the second human disease and first parasitic infection to be eradicated. The global Guinea Worm Eradication Program (GWEP), through community-based interventions, reduced the burden of disease from an estimated 3.5 million cases per year in 1986 to only 13 human cases in 2022. Despite progress, in 2012 Guinea worm disease was detected in domesticated dogs and later in domesticated cats and baboons. Without previous development of any Guinea worm therapeutics, diagnostic tests to detect pre-patent Guinea worm infection, or environmental surveillance tools, the emergence of Guinea worm disease in animal hosts-a threat to eradication-motivated an assessment of evidence gaps and research opportunities. This gap analysis informed the refinement of a robust research agenda intended to generate new evidence and identify additional tools for national GWEPs and to better align the global GWEP with a 2030 Guinea worm eradication certification target. This paper outlines the rationale for the development and expansion of the global GWEP Research Agenda and summarizes the results of the gap analysis that was conducted to identify Guinea worm-related research needs and opportunities. We describe five work streams informed by the research gap analysis that underpin the GWEP Research Agenda and address eradication endgame challenges through the employment of a systems-informed One Health approach. We also discuss the infrastructure in place to disseminate new evidence and monitor research results as well as plans for the continual review of evidence and research priorities.

Predicting the Environmental Suitability and Identifying Climate and Sociodemographic Correlates of Guinea Worm (Dracunculus medinensis) in Chad.

A comprehensive understanding of the spatial distribution and correlates of infection are key for the planning of disease control programs and assessing the feasibility of elimination and/or eradication. In this work, we used species distribution modeling to predict the environmental suitability of the Guinea worm (Dracunculus medinensis) and identify important climatic and sociodemographic risk factors. Using Guinea worm surveillance data collected by the Chad Guinea Worm Eradication Program (CGWEP) from 2010 to 2022 in combination with remotely sensed climate and sociodemographic correlates of infection within an ensemble machine learning framework, we mapped the environmental suitability of Guinea worm infection in Chad. The same analytical framework was also used to ascertain the contribution and influence of the identified climatic risk factors. Spatial distribution maps showed predominant clustering around the southern regions and along the Chari River. We also identified areas predicted to be environmentally suitable for infection. Of note are districts near the western border with Cameroon and southeastern border with Central African Republic. Key environmental correlates of infection as identified by the model were proximity to permanent rivers and inland lakes, farmlands, land surface temperature, and precipitation. This work provides a comprehensive model of the spatial distribution of Guinea worm infections in Chad 2010-2022 and sheds light on potential environmental correlates of infection. As the CGWEP moves toward elimination, the methods and results in this study will inform surveillance activities and help optimize the allocation of intervention resources.

Factors Influencing Community Engagement during Guinea Worm and Polio Eradication Endgames in Chad: Recommendations for "Last Mile" Programming.

Community engagement is a strategy commonly used in health and development programming. Many disease eradication programs engage with communities through different structures and mechanisms to detect, report, contain, and respond to the diseases they target. Qualitative operational research was conducted in a district of Chad co-endemic for both dracunculiasis (i.e., Guinea worm disease) and circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus to reveal factors influencing community engagement behavior in the context of eradication-related programming. Women and men from six communities and stakeholders from the local, district, and central levels were recruited to participate in focus group discussions and semi-structured in-depth interviews. A thematic analysis was performed to identify barriers and facilitators of community engagement. Barriers to community engagement included mistrust in exogenously established health program initiatives (i.e., initiatives designed by partners external to targeted program communities) resulting from negative past experiences with external entities and community groups and the lure of profit-motivating community engagement. Subgroup and intersectionality analyses revealed that gender and other identities influence whether and to what extent certain members of the community engage in a meaningful way. Facilitators of community engagement included leadership and the influence of authorities and leaders in community participation, perceived benefits of being engaged with community-based initiatives, and use of incentives to enhance community participation. Study findings may be used to inform the refinement of community engagement approaches in Chad and learning agendas for other "last mile" disease eradication programs.

Potential Impact of a Diagnostic Test for Detecting Prepatent Guinea Worm Infections in Dogs.

Chad has seen a considerable reduction in cases of Guinea worm disease (or dracunculiasis) in domestic dogs in recent years. Tethering of dogs and application of Abate® larvicide to water sources appear to have contributed to this progress, but with 767 reported dog cases in 2021, accelerating elimination of the disease in Chad may require additional tools. We investigate the potential benefits of a hypothetical diagnostic test that could be capable of detecting prepatent infections in dogs. We adapt an agent-based simulation model for forecasting the impact of interventions on guinea worm disease in dogs to examine the interaction of multiple test factors including test accuracy, when the test can detect infection, dog selection, and dog-owner compliance with tethering recommendations. We find that a diagnostic test could be successful if used in conjunction with existing interventions, and elimination can be achieved within 2 years with 80% or higher test sensitivity, 90% or higher specificity, systematic testing of each dog twice per year, and more than 90% long-term tethering compliance when a dog tests positive or a worm is emerging. Because of the long incubation period of Guinea worm disease (10-14 months) and the fact that no treatment exists, the benefits of the test rely on the testing rollout and response of dog owners. If the test could estimate the timing of worm emergence, long-term tethering could be eliminated and infected dogs could be tethered only when the worms are expected, minimizing the related resources (human and financial) to support the intervention.

Progress Toward Eradication of Dracunculiasis - Worldwide, January 2022-June 2023.

The effort to eradicate Dracunculus medinensis, the etiologic agent of dracunculiasis, or Guinea worm disease, commenced at CDC in 1980. In 1986, with an estimated 3.5 million cases worldwide in 20 African and Asian countries, the World Health Assembly called for dracunculiasis elimination. The Guinea Worm Eradication Program (GWEP) was established to help countries with endemic dracunculiasis reach this goal. GWEP is led by The Carter Center and supported by partners that include the World Health Organization, UNICEF, and CDC. In 2012, D. medinensis infections were unexpectedly confirmed in Chadian dogs, and since then, infections in dogs, cats, and baboons have posed a new challenge for GWEP, as have ongoing civil unrest and insecurity in some areas. By 2022, dracunculiasis was endemic in five countries (Angola, Chad, Ethiopia, Mali, and South Sudan), with only 13 human cases identified, the lowest yearly total ever reported. Animal infections, however, were not declining at the same rate: 686 animal infections were reported in 2022, including 606 (88%) in dogs in Chad. Despite these unanticipated challenges as well as the COVID-19 pandemic, countries appear close to reaching the eradication goal. GWEP will continue working with country programs to address animal infections, civil unrest, and insecurity, that challenge the eradication of Guinea worm.

Participating in eradication: how Guinea worm redefined eradication, and eradication redefined Guinea worm, 1985-2022.

Guinea worm disease (dracunculiasis) is a debilitating waterborne disease. Once widespread, it is now on the brink of eradication. However, the Guinea Worm Eradication Programme (GWEP), like guinea worm itself, has been under-studied by historians. The GWEP demonstrates an unusual model of eradication, one focused on primary healthcare (PHC), community participation, health education and behavioural change (safe drinking). The PHC movement collided with a waterborne disease, which required rapid but straightforward treatment to prevent transmission, creating a historical space for the emergence of village-based volunteer health workers, as local actors realigned global health policy on a local level. These Village Volunteers placed eradication in the hands of residents of endemic areas, epitomising the participation-focused nature of the GWEP. This participatory mode of eradication highlights the agency of those in endemic areas, who, through volunteering, safe drinking and community self-help, have been the driving force behind dracunculiasis eradication. In the twenty-first century, guinea worm has become firstly a problem of human mobility, as global health has struggled to contain cases in refugees and nomads, and latterly a zoonotic disease, as guinea worm has shifted hosts to become primarily a parasite of dogs. This demonstrates both the potential of One Health approaches and the need for One Health to adopt from PHC and the GWEP a focus on the health of humans and animals in isolated and impoverished areas. Guinea worm demonstrates how the biological and the historical interact, with the GWEP and guinea worm shaping each other over the course of the eradication programme.

Responding to Africa's burden of disease: accelerating progress.

Although Africa is home to about 14% of the global population (1.14 billion people), it is growing three times faster than the global average [1]. The continent carries a high burden of disease, but there has been real progress in eradication, elimination, and control since 2015. Examples are the eradication of wild polio in 2020 [2] and the eradication or elimination of neglected tropical diseases, such as dracunculiasis in Kenya in 2018; Human African trypanosomiasis in Togo in 2022; and trachoma in Togo, Gambia, Ghana, and Malawi in 2022 [3]. New HIV infections reduced by 44% in 2021 compared to 2010 [4], and in 2021 the African region passed the 2020 milestone of the End TB Strategy, with a 22% reduction in new infections compared with 2015 [5].

Progress Toward Global Eradication of Dracunculiasis - Worldwide, January 2021-June 2022.

Dracunculiasis (Guinea worm disease), caused by the parasite Dracunculus medinensis, is acquired by drinking water containing small crustacean copepods (water fleas) infected with D. medinensis larvae. Recent evidence suggests that the parasite also appears to be transmitted by eating fish or other aquatic animals. About 1 year after infection, the worm typically emerges through the skin on a lower limb of the host, causing pain and disability (1). No vaccine or medicine is available to prevent or treat dracunculiasis. Eradication relies on case containment* to prevent water contamination and other interventions to prevent infection, including health education, water filtration, treatment of unsafe water with temephos (an organophosphate larvicide), and provision of safe drinking water (1,2). CDC began worldwide eradication efforts in October 1980, and in 1984 was designated by the World Health Organization (WHO) as the technical monitor of the Dracunculiasis Eradication Program (1). In 1986, with an estimated 3.5 million cases† occurring annually in 20 African and Asian countries§ (3), the World Health Assembly called for dracunculiasis elimination. The Guinea Worm Eradication Program (GWEP),¶ led by The Carter Center and supported by partners that include WHO, UNICEF, and CDC, began assisting ministries of health in countries with endemic disease. In 2021, a total of 15 human cases were identified and three were identified during January-June 2022. As of November 2022, dracunculiasis remained endemic in five countries (Angola, Chad, Ethiopia, Mali, and South Sudan); cases reported in Cameroon were likely imported from Chad. Eradication efforts in these countries are challenged by infection in animals, the COVID-19 pandemic, civil unrest, and insecurity. Animal infections, mostly in domestic dogs, some domestic cats, and in Ethiopia, a few baboons, have now surpassed human cases, with 863 reported animal infections in 2021 and 296 during January-June 2022. During the COVID-19 pandemic all national GWEPs remained fully operational, implementing precautions to ensure safety of program staff members and community members. In addition, the progress toward eradication and effectiveness of interventions were reviewed at the 2021 and 2022 annual meetings of GWEP program managers, and the 2021 meeting of WHO's International Commission for the Certification of Dracunculiasis Eradication. With only 15 human cases identified in 2021 and three during January-June 2022, program efforts appear to be closer to reaching the goal of eradication. However, dog infections and impeded access because of civil unrest and insecurity in Mali and South Sudan continue to be the greatest challenges for the program. This report describes progress during January 2021-June 2022 and updates previous reports (2,4).

Development and validation of a quantitative PCR for the detection of Guinea worm (Dracunculus medinensis).

Dracunculus medinensis (Guinea worm) is a parasitic nematode that can cause the debilitating disease dracunculiasis (Guinea worm disease) in humans. The global Guinea Worm Eradication Program has led intervention and eradication efforts since the 1980s, and Guinea worm infections in people have decreased >99.99%. With the final goal of eradication drawing nearer, reports of animal infections from some remaining endemic countries pose unique challenges. Currently, confirmation of suspected Guinea worm infection relies on conventional molecular techniques such as polymerase chain reaction (PCR), which is not specific to Guinea worm and, therefore, requires sequencing of the PCR products to confirm the identity of suspect samples, a process that often takes a few weeks. To decrease the time required for species confirmation, we developed a quantitative PCR assay targeting the mitochondrial cytochrome b (cytb) gene of Guinea worm. Our assay has a limit of detection of 10 copies per reaction. The mean analytical parameters (± SE) were as follows: efficiency = 93.4 ± 7.7%, y-intercept = 40.93 ± 1.11, slope = -3.4896 ± 0.12, and the R2 = 0.999 ± 0.004. The assay did not amplify other nematodes found in Guinea worm-endemic regions and demonstrated 100% diagnostic sensitivity and specificity. Implementation of this quantitative PCR assay for Guinea worm identification could eliminate the need for DNA sequencing to confirm species. Thus, this approach can be implemented to provide more rapid confirmation of Guinea worm infections, leading to faster execution of Guinea worm interventions while increasing our understanding of infection patterns.

Dracunculiasis Eradication: End-Stage Challenges.

This report summarizes the status of the global Dracunculiasis Eradication Program as of the end of 2021. Dracunculiasis (Guinea worm disease) has been eliminated from 17 of 21 countries where it was endemic in 1986, when an estimated 3.5 million cases occurred worldwide. Only Chad, Ethiopia, Mali, and South Sudan reported cases in humans in 2021. Chad, Ethiopia, and Mali also reported indigenous infections of animals, mostly domestic dogs, with Dracunculus medinensis. Insecurity and infections in animals are the main obstacles remaining to interrupting dracunculiasis transmission completely.

Epidemiological and molecular investigations of a point-source outbreak of Dracunculus medinensis infecting humans and dogs in Chad: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Dracunculiasis (also known as Guinea worm disease), caused by the Dracunculus medinensis nematode, is progressing towards eradication, with a reduction in cases from 3·5 million cases in the mid-1980s to only 54 human cases at the end of 2019. Most cases now occur in Chad. On April 19, 2019, a 19-year-old woman presented with D medinensis in an area within the Salamat region of Chad, where the disease had not been previously reported. We aimed to investigate the connection between this case and others detected locally and elsewhere in Chad using a combination of epidemiological and genetic approaches. METHODS: In this cross-sectional field study, we conducted household case searches and informal group interviews in the Bogam, Liwi, and Tarh villages in Chad. All community members including children were eligible for participation in the outbreak investigation. Adult female D medinensis associated with this outbreak were collected for genetic analysis (18 from humans and two from dogs). Four mitochondrial genes and 22 nuclear microsatellite markers were used to assess relatedness of worms associated with the outbreak in comparison with other worms from elsewhere in Chad. FINDINGS: Between April 12 and Sept 6, 2019, we identified 22 human cases and two canine cases of dracunculiasis associated with 15 households. Six (40%) of the 15 affected households had multiple human or canine cases within the household. Most cases of dracunculiasis in people were from three villages in Salamat (21 [95%] of 22 cases), but one case was detected nearly 400 km away in Sarh city (outside the Salamat region). All people with dracunculiasis reported a history of consuming fish and unfiltered water. Worms associated with this outbreak were genetically similar and shared the same maternal lineage. INTERPRETATION: Molecular epidemiological results suggest a point-source outbreak that originated from a single female D medinensis, rather than newly identified sustained local transmission. The failure of the surveillance system to detect the suspected canine infection in 2018 highlights the challenge of canine D medinensis detection, particularly in areas under passive surveillance. Human movement can also contribute to dracunculiasis spread over long distances. FUNDING: The Carter Center.

Effects of Temephos (Abate®), Spinosad (Natular®), and Diflubenzuron on the Survival of Cyclopoid Copepods.

Dracunculus medinensis, also known as the African Guinea worm, is the causative agent of dracunculiasis and the focus of the global Guinea Worm Eradication Program (GWEP). Transmission of D. medinensis to humans occurs primarily by drinking water containing cyclopoid copepods infected with third-stage D. medinensis larvae. A common intervention to interrupt transmission and decrease the number of copepods in infected water bodies is the application of the organophosphate larvicide Abate® (temephos). However, the use of alternative compounds to help decrease copepod populations would be beneficial to the GWEP. We compared the immobilization of copepods by three compounds: Abate, Natular® (spinosad), and diflubenzuron. Our results confirm that neither diflubenzuron nor Natular immobilized copepods as quickly or as effectively as Abate. However, doubling or tripling the suggested concentration of Natular resulted in immobilization rates similar to Abate over 72 hours of continuous exposure. Further research on the possible effects of higher concentrations of Natular on the environment and nontarget organisms is necessary to determine whether this compound can be used safely to control the copepod population.

Seasonal fishery facilitates a novel transmission pathway in an emerging animal reservoir of Guinea worm.

Exploitation of natural resources is a driver of human infectious disease emergence. The emergence of animal reservoirs of Guinea worm Dracunculus medinensis, particularly in domestic dogs Canis familiaris, has become the major impediment to global eradication of this human disease. 93% of all Guinea worms detected worldwide in 2020 were in dogs in Chad. Novel, non-classical pathways for transmission of Guinea worm in dogs, involving consumption of fish, have been hypothesized to support the maintenance of this animal reservoir. We quantified and analyzed variation in Guinea worm emergence in dogs in Chad, across three climatic seasons, in multiple villages and districts. We applied forensic stable isotope analyses to quantify dietary variation within and among dogs and GPS tracking to characterize their spatial ecology. At the end of the hot-dry season and beginning of the wet season, when fishing by people is most intensive, Guinea worm emergence rates in dogs were highest, dogs ate most fish, and fish consumption was most closely associated with disease. Consumption of fish by dogs enables a non-classical transmission pathway for Guinea worm in Chad. Seasonal fisheries and the facilitation of dogs eating fish are likely contributing to disease persistence and to this key impediment to human disease eradication. Interrelated natural resource use, climatic variation, companion animal ecology, and human health highlight the indispensability of One Health approaches to the challenges of eradicating Guinea worm and other zoonotic diseases.

Progress Toward Global Eradication of Dracunculiasis, January 2020-June 2021.

Dracunculiasis (Guinea worm disease), caused by the parasite Dracunculus medinensis, is traditionally acquired by drinking water containing copepods (water fleas) infected with D. medinensis larvae, but in recent years also appears increasingly to be transmitted by eating fish or other aquatic animals. The worm typically emerges through the skin on a lower limb of the host 1 year after infection, causing pain and disability (1). There is no vaccine or medicine to prevent or medicine to treat dracunculiasis; eradication relies on case containment* to prevent water contamination and other interventions to prevent infection: health education, water filtration, treatment of unsafe water with temephos (an organophosphate larvicide), and provision of safe drinking water (1,2). The eradication campaign began in 1980 at CDC (1). In 1986, with an estimated 3.5 million cases† occurring annually in 20 African and Asian countries§ (3), the World Health Assembly called for dracunculiasis elimination (4). The Guinea Worm Eradication Program (GWEP), led by The Carter Center and supported by the World Health Organization (WHO), UNICEF, CDC, and other partners, began assisting ministries of health in countries with endemic disease. With 27 cases in humans reported in 2020, five during January-June 2021, and only six countries currently affected by dracunculiasis (Angola, Chad, Ethiopia, Mali, South Sudan, and importations into Cameroon), achievement of eradication appears to be close. However, dracunculiasis eradication is challenged by civil unrest, insecurity, and epidemiologic and zoologic concerns. Guinea worm infections in dogs were first reported in Chad in 2012. Animal infections have now overtaken human cases, with 1,601 reported animal infections in 2020 and 443 during January-June 2021. Currently, all national GWEPs remain fully operational, with precautions taken to ensure safety of program staff and community members in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Because of COVID-19, The Carter Center convened the 2020 and 2021 annual GWEP Program Managers meetings virtually, and WHO's International Commission for the Certification of Dracunculiasis Eradication met virtually in October 2020. Since 1986, WHO has certified 199 countries, areas, and territories dracunculiasis-free. Six countries are still affected: five with endemic disease and importations into Cameroon. Seven countries (five with endemic dracunculiasis, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Sudan) still lack certification (4). The existence of infected dogs, especially in Chad, and impeded access because of civil unrest and insecurity in Mali and South Sudan are now the greatest challenges to interrupting transmission. This report describes progress during January 2020-June 2021 and updates previous reports (2,4,5).

Quantifying conflict zones as a challenge to certification of Guinea worm eradication in Africa: a new analytical approach.

OBJECTIVES: To quantify conflict events and access across countries that remain to be certified free of transmission of Dracunculus medinensis (Guinea worm disease) or require postcertification surveillance as part of the Guinea Worm Eradication Programme (GWEP). SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Populations living in Guinea worm affected areas across seven precertification countries and 13 postcertification sub-Saharan African countries. OUTCOME MEASURES: The number of conflict events and rates per 100 000 population, the main types of conflict and actors reported to be responsible for events were summarised and mapped across all countries. Chad and Mali were presented as case studies. Guinea worm information was based on GWEP reports. Conflict data were obtained from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project. Maps were created using ArcGIS V.10.7 and access was measured as regional distance and time to cities. RESULTS: More than 980 000 conflict events were reported between 2000 and 2020, with a significant increase since 2018. The highest number and rates were reported in precertification Mali (n=2556; 13.0 per 100 000), South Sudan (n=2143; 19.4), Democratic Republic of Congo (n=7016; 8.1) and postcertification Nigeria (n=6903; 3.4), Central Africa Republic (n=1251; 26.4), Burkina Faso (n=2004; 9.7). Violence against civilians, protests and battles were most frequently reported with several different actors involved including Unidentified Armed Groups and Boko Haram. Chad and Mali had contracting epidemiological and conflict situations with affected regions up to 700 km from the capital or 10 hours to the nearest city. CONCLUSIONS: Understanding the spatial-temporal patterns of conflict events, identifying hotspots, the actors responsible and their sphere of influence is critical for the GWEP and other public health programmes to develop practical risk assessments, deliver essential health interventions, implement innovative surveillance, determine certification and meet the goals of eradication.

Assessment of the Chad guinea worm surveillance information system: A pivotal foundation for eradication.

BACKGROUND: In the absence of a vaccine or pharmacological treatment, prevention and control of Guinea worm disease is dependent on timely identification and containment of cases to interrupt transmission. The Chad Guinea Worm Eradication Program (CGWEP) surveillance system detects and monitors Guinea worm disease in both humans and animals. Although Guinea worm cases in humans has declined, the discovery of canine infections in dogs in Chad has posed a significant challenge to eradication efforts. A foundational information system that supports the surveillance activities with modern data management practices is needed to support continued program efficacy. METHODS: We sought to assess the current CGWEP surveillance and information system to identify gaps and redundancies and propose system improvements. We reviewed documentation, consulted with subject matter experts and stakeholders, inventoried datasets to map data elements and information flow, and mapped data management processes. We used the Information Value Cycle (IVC) and Data-Information System-Context (DISC) frameworks to help understand the information generated and identify gaps. RESULTS: Findings from this study identified areas for improvement, including the need for consolidation of forms that capture the same demographic variables, which could be accomplished with an electronic data capture system. Further, the mental models (conceptual frameworks) IVC and DISC highlighted the need for more detailed, standardized workflows specifically related to information management. CONCLUSIONS: Based on these findings, we proposed a four-phased roadmap for centralizing data systems and transitioning to an electronic data capture system. These included: development of a data governance plan, transition to electronic data entry and centralized data storage, transition to a relational database, and cloud-based integration. The method and outcome of this assessment could be used by other neglected tropical disease programs looking to transition to modern electronic data capture systems.

Linked surveillance and genetic data uncovers programmatically relevant geographic scale of Guinea worm transmission in Chad.

BACKGROUND: Guinea worm (Dracunculus medinensis) was detected in Chad in 2010 after a supposed ten-year absence, posing a challenge to the global eradication effort. Initiation of a village-based surveillance system in 2012 revealed a substantial number of dogs infected with Guinea worm, raising questions about paratenic hosts and cross-species transmission. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We coupled genomic and surveillance case data from 2012-2018 to investigate the modes of transmission between dog and human hosts and the geographic connectivity of worms. Eighty-six variants across four genes in the mitochondrial genome identified 41 genetically distinct worm genotypes. Spatiotemporal modeling revealed worms with the same genotype ('genetically identical') were within a median range of 18.6 kilometers of each other, but largely within approximately 50 kilometers. Genetically identical worms varied in their degree of spatial clustering, suggesting there may be different factors that favor or constrain transmission. Each worm was surrounded by five to ten genetically distinct worms within a 50 kilometer radius. As expected, we observed a change in the genetic similarity distribution between pairs of worms using variants across the complete mitochondrial genome in an independent population. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: In the largest study linking genetic and surveillance data to date of Guinea worm cases in Chad, we show genetic identity and modeling can facilitate the understanding of local transmission. The co-occurrence of genetically non-identical worms in quantitatively identified transmission ranges highlights the necessity for genomic tools to link cases. The improved discrimination between pairs of worms from variants identified across the complete mitochondrial genome suggests that expanding the number of genomic markers could link cases at a finer scale. These results suggest that scaling up genomic surveillance for Guinea worm may provide additional value for programmatic decision-making critical for monitoring cases and intervention efficacy to achieve elimination.

Alternative transmission pathways for guinea worm in dogs: implications for outbreak risk and control.

Guinea worm (Dracunculus medinensis) has exerted a high human health burden in parts of Africa. Complete eradication of Guinea worm disease (dracunculiasis) may be delayed by the circulation of the parasite in domestic dogs. As with humans, dogs acquire the parasite by directly ingesting infected copepods, and recent evidence suggests that consuming frogs that ingested infected copepods as tadpoles may be a viable transmission route (paratenic route). To understand the relative contributions of direct and paratenic transmission routes, we developed a mathematical model that describes transmission of Guinea worm between dogs, copepods and frogs. We explored how the parasite basic reproductive number (R0) depends on parameters amenable to actionable interventions under three scenarios: frogs/tadpoles do not consume copepods; tadpoles consume copepods but frogs do not contribute to transmission; and frogs are paratenic hosts. We found a non-monotonic relationship between the number of dogs and R0. Generally, frogs can contribute to disease control by removing infected copepods from the waterbody even when paratenic transmission can occur. However, paratenic transmission could play an important role in maintaining the parasite when direct transmission is reduced by interventions focused on reducing copepod ingestion by dogs. Together, these suggest that the most effective intervention strategies may be those which focus on the reduction of copepods, as this reduces outbreak potential irrespective of the importance of the paratenic route.