Age, period, cohort effects in trends of depressive symptoms among middle-aged and older Chinese adults.

Objectives: To investigate the effects of age, period, and cohort on the trends of depression; and to examine the influence of these three temporal effects on residential disparities in depression. Methods: Using data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) during 2011 to 2020, involving 77,703 respondents aged 45 years old and above. The measurement of depressive symptoms was the score of 10-question version of the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D 10). The hierarchical age-period-cohort cross-classified random effects models were conducted to examine trends in depressive symptoms related to age, period and cohort. Results: CES-D scores increased with age and slightly decreased at older age. The cohort trends mostly increased except for a downward trend among those born in 1950s. As for the period effect, CES-D scores decreased gradually from 2011 to 2013 followed by a upward trend. Rural residents were associated with higher level of depression than those live in urban area. These residence gaps in depression enlarged before the age of 80, and then narrowed. The urban-rural disparities in CES-D scores gradually diminished across cohorts, while the corresponding period-based change in urban-rural gaps was not significant. Conclusion: When age, period, cohort factors are considered, the age effects on depression dominated, and the period and cohort variations were relatively small. The residence disparities in depression reduced with successive cohorts, more attention should be paid to the worsening depression condition of younger cohorts in urban areas.

The Trend of Chronic Diseases Among Older Koreans, 2004-2020: Age-Period-Cohort Analysis.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to examine age, period, and cohort effects contributing to the prevalence of diabetes and hypertension among older Koreans. Additionally, it sought to investigate how sociodemographic characteristics interact with period and cohort effects to influence the disease prevalence. METHODS: Using the 2004-2020 data from the National Survey of Older Koreans, a nationally representative sample of older adults aged 65 or older, hierarchical age-period-cohort cross-classified random effects models (HAPC-CCREMs) were employed to estimate separate age, period, and cohort components of the recent trends in diabetes and hypertension. Sociodemographic characteristics were tested for their interactions with period and cohort effects. RESULTS: Significant period effects were observed, indicating a steady increase in the likelihood of being diagnosed with diabetes and hypertension over time. Age effects revealed a quadratic trend, with disease risks generally increasing with age, but the rate of increase diminishing at older ages. Cohort effects exhibited an inverted U-shaped pattern, with higher risks observed in the 1930s and early 1940s cohorts compared to earlier and later cohorts. Gender and educational attainment emerged as significant moderators. Women than men born in the early 1930s exhibited higher risks of diabetes and hypertension, whereas individuals with lower educational attainment showed a steadily increasing risk of hypertension over time. DISCUSSION: The results underscore the complex interplay of age, period, and cohort effects in shaping disease prevalence among older Koreans. Our findings highlight the importance of considering historical context and sociodemographic factors in understanding disease trends and designing targeted interventions to mitigate health disparities.

Comparing cohort and period trends of early-onset colorectal cancer: a global analysis.

BACKGROUND: Incidence of early-onset colorectal cancer (CRC) has increased globally in recent decades. We examined early-onset CRC incidence trends worldwide for potential cohort effects, defined as changes associated with time of birth (eg, early-life exposure to carcinogens), and period effects, defined as changes associated with calendar periods (eg, screening programs). METHODS: We obtained long-term incidence data for early-onset CRC diagnosed in patients aged 20 to 49 years through the year 2012 for 35 countries in the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents database. We used a smoothing method to help compare cohort and period trends of early-onset CRC and used an age-period-cohort model to estimate cohort and period effects. RESULTS: Cohort effects had a more dominant role than period effects in the early-onset CRC incidence in Shanghai (China), the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, the United States, and Osaka (Japan). The smoothed trends show the specific birth cohorts when early-onset CRC began to increase: the 1940s-1950s birth cohorts in the United States; the 1950s-1960s birth cohorts in other Western countries; the 1960s birth cohorts in Osaka; and the 1970s-1980s birth cohorts in Shanghai. Such increases occurred earlier for early-onset cancers of the rectum than of the colon. For the other countries, the results were less clear. CONCLUSIONS: Recent birth cohorts may have been exposed to risk factors different from earlier cohorts, contributing to increased early-onset CRC incidence in several developed countries or regions in the West and Asia. Such increases began in earlier birth cohorts in Western countries than in developed regions of Asia.

Trends and age-period-cohort effect on incidence of hepatitis B from 2008 to 2022 in Guangzhou, China.

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is highly prevalent in Guangzhou, China. This study aimed to examine the long-term trend of HB incidence from 2008 to 2022 and the independent impacts of age, period, and cohort on the trends. HBV data were collected from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. Joinpoint regression was utilized to examine temporal trends, and an age-period-cohort model was employed to estimate the effects of age, period, and cohort. A total of 327,585 HBV cases were included in this study. The incidence of chronic and acute HB showed a decreasing trend in Guangzhou over the past 15 years, with an average annual percent change of - 4.31% and - 16.87%, respectively. Age, period, and cohort all exerted significant effects. The incidence of HB was higher in males than in females and non-central areas compared to central areas. Age groups of 0-4 years and 15-24 years were identified as high-risk groups. The period relative risks for chronic HB incidence decreased initially and then stabilized. Cohorts born later had lower risks. Chronic HB incidences remain high in Guangzhou, especially among males, younger individuals, and residents of non-central areas. More efforts are still needed to achieve hepatitis elimination targets.

Trends in uterine cancer incidence in the United States: The contribution of age, period and cohort effects.

OBJECTIVE: In the U.S., uterine cancer incidence is rising, with racial and ethnic minorities experiencing the largest increases. We performed age-period-cohort analyses using novel methods to examine the contribution of age at diagnosis (age), year of diagnosis (period), and birth cohort (cohort), to trends in uterine cancer incidence. METHODS: We used uterine cancer incidence data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Result (SEER) 12 database (1992-2019), and performed hysterectomy-correction. We generated hexamaps to visualize age, period, and cohort effects, and used mutual information to estimate the percent contribution of age, period, and cohort effects, individually and combined, on uterine cancer incidence, overall and by race and ethnicity and histology. RESULTS: Hexamaps showed an increase in uterine cancer in later time periods, and a cohort effect around 1933 showing a lower incidence compared with earlier and later cohorts. Age, period, and cohort effects combined contributed 86.6% (95% CI: 86.4%, 86.9%) to the incidence. Age effects had the greatest contribution (65.1%, 95% CI: 64.3%, 65.9), followed by cohort (20.7%, 95% CI: 20.1%, 21.3%) and period (14.2%, 95% CI: 13.7%, 14.8%) effects. Hexamaps showed higher incidence in recent years for non-Hispanic Blacks and non-endometrioid tumors. CONCLUSIONS: Age effects had the largest contribution to uterine cancer incidence, followed by cohort and period effects overall and across racial and ethnic groups and histologies. IMPACT: These findings can inform uterine cancer modeling studies on the effects of interventions that target risk factors which may vary across age, period, or cohort.

Irish Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis Incidence: Age, Period, and Cohort Effects Using a Partial Least Squares Regression Model.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: To investigate the underlying reasons for variability in the incidence rate of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) within the Irish population between the years 1996 and 2021. METHODS: The Irish ALS register was used to calculate the incidence and to subsequently extract age at diagnosis (age), year of diagnosis (period), and date of birth (cohort) for all incident patients within the study period (n = 2,771). An age-period-cohort (APC) model using partial least squares regression was constructed to examine each component separately and their respective contribution to the incidence while minimizing the well-known identifiability problem of APC effects. A dummy regression model consisting of 5 periods, 19 cohorts, and 16 age groups was used to examine nonlinear relationships within the data over time. The CIs for each of these were estimated using the jackknife method. RESULTS: The nonlinear model achieved R2 of 99.43% with 2-component extraction. Age variation was evident with those in the ages 65-79 years contributing significantly to the incidence (ßmax = 0.0746, SE = 0.000410, CI 0.00665-0.00826). However, those aged 25-60 years contributed significantly less (ßmin = -0.00393, SE = 0.000291, CI -0.00454 to -0.00340). Each successive period showed an increase in the regression model coefficient suggesting an increasing incidence over time, independent of the other factors examined-an increase of ß from -0.00489 (SE = 0.000264, CI -0.00541 to -0.00437) to 0.00973 (SE = 0.000418, CI 0.0105-0.00891). A cohort effect was demonstrated showing that the contribution of those born between 1927 and 1951 contributed to a significantly greater degree than the other birth cohorts (ßmax = 0.00577, SE = 0.000432, CI 0.00493-0.00662). DISCUSSION: Using the Irish population-based ALS Register, robust age, period, and cohort effects can be identified. The age effect may be accounted for by demographic shifts within the population. Changes in disease categorization, competing risks of death, and improved surveillance may account for period effects. The cohort effect may reflect lifestyle and environmental factors associated with the challenging economic circumstances in Ireland between 1927 and 1951. Age-period-cohort studies can help to account for changes in disease incidence and prevalence, providing additional insights into likely demographic and environmental factors that influence population-based disease risk.

Investigating temporal patterns of colorectal cancer incidence in Spain: a comprehensive analysis of age, period and cohort effects, 1990-2019.

AIM: This study aimed to evaluate how age, period, and cohort (A-P-C) impact colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence in Spain from 1990 to 2019. METHOD: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, we used joinpoint analysis to identify long-term trends and A-P-C modelling to quantify net drift, local drift, longitudinal age curves, and rate ratios (RRs) of period and cohort effects. RESULTS: CRC incidence increased steadily in Spain from 1990 to 2019, with a more significant rise in males than in females. The age standardized rates rose from 84.9 to 129.3 cases per 100,000 in males and from 56.9 to 70.3 cases per 100,000 in females. Joinpoint analysis revealed distinct patterns for men and women: male incidence showed three phases (a surge until 1995, a slowdown until 2012, and a subsequent decrease) while female incidence showed a single increase until 2011 and then stabilized. Local drifts increased in all age groups over 45, with stability in males under 45 and a decrease in females aged 30-39. The risk of CRC increased with age, with males consistently having a higher risk than females. The risk of CRC increased over time for both men and women but at different rates. The risk for cohorts born in the early to mid-20th century peaked in the 1960s and remained stable until the late 1990s. CONCLUSION: The increasing incidence of CRC in Spain, with distinct patterns by gender and birth cohort, underlines the importance of preventive strategies adapted to temporal and demographic variations to address this public health challenge.

Age-period-cohort effects on incidence trends of childhood leukemia from four population-based cancer registries in Colombia.

BACKGROUND: Childhood leukemia (CL) is the most prevalent form of pediatric cancer on a global scale. However, there is a limited understanding of the dynamics of CL incidence in South America, with a specific knowledge gap in Colombia. This study aimed to identify trends in CL incidence and to analyze the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on the risk of leukemia incidence in this population. METHODS: Information on all newly diagnosed leukemia cases (in general and by subtype) among residents aged 0-18 years and living in the serving areas of population-based cancer registries of Cali (2008-2017), Bucaramanga (2000-2017), Manizales (2003-2017), and Pasto (1998-2018). Estimated annual percent changes (EAPC) in incidence over time and potential changes in the slope of these EAPCs were calculated using joinpoint regression models. The effects of age, period, and cohort in CL incidence trends were evaluated using age-period-cohort models addressing the identifiability issue through the application of double differences. RESULTS: A total of 966 childhood leukemia cases were identified. The average standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of leukemia was calculated and expressed per 100,000 person-years - observing ASIR of 4.46 in Cali, 7.27 in Bucaramanga, 3.89 in Manizales and 4.06 in Pasto. Concerning CL trends there were no statistically significant changes in EAPC throughout the different periods, however, when analyzed by leukemia subtype, statistically significant changes were observed in the EAPC for both ALL and AML. Analysis of age-period-cohort models revealed that age-related factors significantly underpin the incidence trends of childhood leukemia in these four Colombian cities. CONCLUSIONS: This study offers valuable insights into the incidence trends of childhood leukemia in four major Colombian cities. The analysis revealed stable overall CL incidence rates across varying periods, predominantly influenced by age-related factors and the absence of cohort and period effects. This information is useful for surveillance and planning purposes for CL diagnosis and treatment in Colombia.

Birth cohort effects on diagnosed atrial fibrillation incidence: nationwide cohort study from 1980 to 2018.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF) shows substantial temporal trends, but the contribution of birth cohort effects is unknown. These effects refer to the relationship between birth year and the likelihood of developing AF. We aimed to assess trends in cumulative incidence of diagnosed AF across birth cohorts and to disentangle the effects of age, birth cohort and calendar period by using age-period-cohort analyses. METHODS: In a Danish nationwide population-based cohort study, 4.7 million individuals were selected at a given index age (45, 55, 65 and 75 years) free of AF and followed up for diagnosed AF. For each index age, we assessed trends in 10-year cumulative incidence of AF across six 5-year birth cohorts. An age-period-cohort model was estimated using Poisson regression with constrained spline functions collapsing data into 1-year intervals across ages and calendar years. RESULTS: Cumulative incidence of AF diagnosis increased across birth cohorts for all index ages (ptrend<0.001). Compared with the first birth cohort, the diagnosed AF incidence rate ratio in the last birth cohort was 3.0 (95% CI 2.9 to 3.2) for index age 45 years, 2.9 (2.8 to 3.0) for 55 years, 2.8 (2.7 to 2.8) for 65 years and 2.7 (2.6 to 2.7) for 75 years. Age-period-cohort analyses showed substantial birth cohort effects independent of age, with no clear period effect. Compared with individuals born in 1930, the diagnosed AF incidence rate was 0.125 smaller among individuals born in 1885 and was four times larger among individuals born in 1975. CONCLUSION: Substantial birth cohort effects, independent of age and calendar period, influence trends in diagnosed AF incidence.

Latina paradox in Spain? Arrival-cohort effects on the birthweight of newborns of Latina mothers.

This study analyses the arrival-cohort effects on the newborn birthweight of Latina women residing in Spain. First, it has been tested whether women of Latin American origin in Spain have an advantage in terms of birth outcomes, a pattern previously documented in the United States and referred to as the 'Latin American paradox'. Second, it has been examined whether this health advantage of Latina mothers varies by arrival cohort.A novel database provided by the Spanish National Statistics Office that links the 2011 Census with Natural Movement of the Population records from January 2011 to December 2015 has been used. Poisson regression models were applied to test for differences in the incidence rates of low birthweight (LBW) and high birthweight (HBW) among children of Latina and native mothers, controlling for various demographic, socio-economic, and birth characteristics.Two distinct arrival-cohort effects on perinatal health were observed. On one hand, first-generation Latina women were found to be at a lower risk of giving birth to LBW infants; however, they experienced a higher incidence of HBW during the study period. Second, Latina women of 1.5 generation, likely stressed by increased exposure to the receiving country, exhibited adverse birthweight results.

Detecting Cohort Effects in Accelerated Longitudinal Designs Using Multilevel Models.

Accelerated longitudinal designs allow researchers to efficiently collect longitudinal data covering a time span much longer than the study duration. One important assumption of these designs is that each cohort (a group defined by their age of entry into the study) shares the same longitudinal trajectory. Although previous research has examined the impact of violating this assumption when each cohort is defined by a single age of entry, it is possible that each cohort is instead defined by a range of ages, such as groups that experience a particular historical event. In this paper we examined how including cohort membership in linear and quadratic multilevel models performed in detecting and controlling for cohort effects in this scenario. Using a Monte Carlo simulation study, we assessed the performance of this approach under conditions related to the number of cohorts, the overlap between cohorts, the strength of the cohort effect, the number of affected parameters, and the sample size. Our results indicate that models including a proxy variable for cohort membership based on age at study entry performed comparably to using true cohort membership in detecting cohort effects accurately and returning unbiased parameter estimates. This indicates that researchers can control for cohort effects even when true cohort membership is unknown.

Trends and age-period-cohort effect on dental caries prevalence from 2008 to 2019 among Brazilian preschoolers.

This study aimed to evaluate trends in the prevalence of dental caries in preschool children and associated factors considering different time variations. This is a time series study performed using data from three cross-sectional studies with pre-school children from southern Brazil in 2008, 2013 and 2019. This children group was born between the years of 2003 to 2018. Dental caries was evaluated by decayed, missing and filled deciduous teeth (dmft index). Demographic, socioeconomic, behavioural and psychosocial variables were also collected. Chi-square test for trends and a hierarchical age-period-cohort (HAPC) analysis using multilevel Poisson regression model for testing the associations between predictor variables and dental caries experience were used. A total of 1,644 pre-school children participated in all surveys. There was a significant difference in caries experience considering all APC effects. The prevalence of dental caries was 25.0% in 2008, 16.3% in 2013, and 19.4% in 2019 (p < 0.01) and no statistical difference was observed. An age effect showed that older children were more likely to experience dental caries. Considering the cohort effect, there is a significant difference between the generations, mainly between 2003 and 2018. Household income, use of dental services, and parent's perception of child oral health were associated with dental caries experience no matter the time variation. Despite recent declines in dental caries prevalence among preschool children, caries levels increased with age and social inequalities persisted through the years, indicating a need of reviewing the policies to reduce the burden of this oral disease.

Examining age, period and cohort effects in attitude change to childhood vaccinations in a representative New Zealand survey: a multiyear cohort-sequential growth modelling study.

OBJECTIVES: Vaccinations are an important preventative measure in reducing the spread of infectious diseases worldwide. However, concerns of undervaccination during childhood have become increasingly common. The current study aims to investigate changes in attitudes towards childhood vaccinations prior to the COVID-19 pandemic using a national sample from New Zealand. DESIGN: Age-based, period-based, and cohort-based changes were assessed using cohort-sequential latent growth modelling in 11 overlapping birth cohorts, which spanned the ages of 23-79 years. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Data were taken from the New Zealand Attitudes and Values Study where 58 654 adults completed at least one wave across a 7-year period (2013 and 2015-2019). RESULTS: The period-based and cohort-based models fit the data equally well (χ2(282)=8547.93, p<0.001, comparative fit index, CFI=0.894, root mean square error of approximation, (RMSEA)=0.074, standardised root mean square residual, SRMR=0.105; χ2(273)=8514.87, p<0.001, CFI=0.894, RMSEA=0.075, SRMR=0.105, respectively) suggesting societal factors contribute to childhood vaccination attitudes. Additionally, the findings suggest attitudes towards childhood vaccinations were becoming increasingly more positive in all birth cohorts (ps<0.001), with younger and older birth cohorts exhibiting even positive attitudes compared with middle-aged cohorts. CONCLUSION: Overall, both the cohort-based and period-based models reveal changes in vaccination attitudes suggesting that even prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, societal influences had an impact on attitudes towards childhood vaccination.

Three decades of infant motor development: Cohort effects in motor skill onsets.

Infant motor development is affected by the sociocultural context in which it takes place. Because societal and cultural practices are dynamic, this exploratory study examined whether the ages at which infants typically learned to crawl, cruise, and walk changed over the past 3 decades. We compiled archival data from 1,306 infants born between January 31, 1992, and December 10, 2021. Parents originally reported milestone onsets in interviews and by using diaries. For each motor milestone, a linear regression model predicted the onset age using birth date. Segmented regression analyses inspected changes in slopes over time. Covariates included rural/urban housing, gestation age, season of birth, and birth weight. Infants' average crawling, cruising, and walking onset ages changed over time. After controlling for the covariates, infants' crawling onset age steadily increased until 2012, after which crawling onset age decreased. Infants' cruising onset age increased from 1991 to 2001, after which cruising onset age remained stable. After controlling for the covariates, infants' walking onset increased until 2015, after which walking onset age decreased. Thus, when infants were born explained a small but significant amount of variability in infant motor skill onset. While the current study showed that motor development changed over the years, motor development is just a model system for development more generally: Cohort effects may be pervasive across developmental domains. Using motor development as a model system for studying change suggests that generational effects due to a changing society may be pervasive across developmental domains. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Age, period and cohort effects on gastric cancer mortality in Spain, 1980-2021.

BACKGROUND: this study aimed to evaluate the effects of age, time period and cohort (A-P-C) on gastric cancer (GC) mortality in Spain from 1980 to 2021. METHODS: an ecological trend study was performed (with aggregated data obtained from the Spanish National Statistics Institute (INE). Joinpoint regression software was used to estimate rates by sex and age group (< 35, 35-64, > 64 years) and mortality trends. The National Cancer Institute A-P-C tools were used to assess the effects of age, time of death and birth cohort. RESULTS: GC mortality rates in Spain decreased significantly in both sexes. In the under-35 age group, rates were stable after an initial significant decline. In the 35-64 age group, the decline was more pronounced in males than in females. In the 65+ age group, rates fell significantly for both sexes, but more so for females than for males. The net drift and local drift also showed significant decreases across all age groups from 24 years onwards. GC mortality rates increased with age and decreased with calendar time and successive birth cohorts, regardless of sex. The ratio of age-specific rates between males and females increased with age, and birth cohort relative risk estimates followed a steady downward trend until the mid-1970s, after which the decline stabilized. The relative risk decreased for both sexes, with a more pronounced decrease in males. CONCLUSION: GC mortality rates in Spain have been decreasing over time and across successive birth cohorts, with a stabilizing trend observed for those under 35 years of age.

Mortality related to HCV and other chronic liver diseases in Veneto (Italy), 2008-2021: Changes in trends and age-period-cohort effects.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The objective of this study was to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and direct-acting antiviral (DAA) agents on mortality related to chronic liver diseases (CLD). METHODS: Age-standardized mortality rates were computed based on CLD as the underlying cause of death (UCOD) and as any mention in death certificates (multiple causes of death-MCOD). Time trends in age-standardized mortality rates were investigated using generalized estimation equation models. Additionally, we conducted age, period, and birth cohort (APC) analyses on CLD-related mortality associated with alcohol and hepatitis C virus (HCV). RESULTS: Between 2008 and 2021, among residents in the Veneto region (Northeastern Italy) aged ≥35 years, there were 20 409 deaths based on the UCOD and 30 069 deaths based on MCOD from all CLD. We observed a 4% annual decline in age-standardized MCOD-based mortality throughout 2008-2021, with minor peaks corresponding to COVID-19 epidemic waves. Starting in 2016, the decline in HCV-related mortality accelerated further (p < .001). A peak in HCV-related mortality in the 1963-1967 birth cohort was observed, which levelled off by the end of the study period. Mortality related to alcoholic liver disease declined at a slower pace, becoming the most common aetiology mentioned in death certificates. CONCLUSIONS: The study demonstrates a significant decrease in HCV-related mortality at the population level in Italy with the introduction of DAAs. Continuous monitoring of MCOD data is warranted to determine if this favourable trend will continue. Further studies utilizing additional health records are needed to clarify the role of other CLD etiologies.

Trends in the mortality of diabetes in Mexico from 1998 to 2022: a joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort effect analysis.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose was to analyze age-standardized trends in diabetes mortality rates (DMR) from 1998 to 2022, stratified by sex and Mexican state, and the effects attributable to age, period, and cohort by sex. STUDY DESIGN: Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort effect analysis. METHODS: Based on the tenth revision of the International Classification of Diseases, E11, E12, E13, and E14 codes of the death certificate, a daily record of mortality was extracted from the death certificate attributable to diabetes as the main cause. From 1998 to 2022, sexes and ages (≥20 years) were used to calculate the crude mortality rates and standardized at the national and Mexican state levels. Additionally, the age-period-cohort model was used to examine age, period, and cohort effects. RESULTS: From 1998 to 2005, the age-adjusted DMR increased by 3.6% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.7, 4.5) for the total population, as shown by the joinpoint regression analysis at a national level; from 2017 to 2020, it increased by 7.4% (95% CI: 0.6, 14.8). The DMR with the highest increase during the study period came mainly from states in the country's southeastern region, 2.3% to 3.7% per year. The net age and period effects showed that mortality increased with advancing age and with going time, respectively; and the net cohort effect revealed that mortality increased in more recent birth cohorts, mainly in men Rate Ratio (RR) = 2.37 (95% CI: 2.29, 2.46) vs RR = 1.13 (95% CI: 1.09, 1.17). CONCLUSION: The DMR increased among older age groups. The period effect showed that mortality increased over time. Furthermore, the cohort effect showed that mortality increased in more recent birth cohorts, especially among men.

Changing epidemiology of colorectal cancer - birth cohort effects and emerging risk factors.

Incidence and mortality of colorectal cancer (CRC) are increasing worldwide, suggesting broad changes in the epidemiology of CRC. In this Review, we discuss the changes that are becoming evident, including trends in CRC incidence and mortality by age and birth cohort, and consider the contributions of early-life exposures and emerging risk factors to these changes. Importantly, incidence of CRC has increased among people born since the early 1950s in nearly all regions of the world. These so-called birth cohort effects imply the involvement of factors that influence the earliest stages of carcinogenesis and have effects across the life course. Accumulating evidence supports the idea that early-life exposures are important risk factors for CRC, including exposures during fetal development, childhood, adolescence and young adulthood. Environmental chemicals could also have a role because the introduction of many in the 1950s and 1960s coincides with increasing incidence of CRC among people born during those years. To reverse the expected increases in the global burden of CRC, participation in average-risk screening programmes needs to be increased by scaling up and implementing evidence-based screening strategies, and emerging risk factors responsible for these increases need to be identified.

Efeito da idade-período-coorte na mortalidade por câncer do colo do útero no Centro-Oeste do Brasil, 1980-2019 / Age-period-cohort effect on cervical cancer mortality in the Center-West of Brazil, 1980-2019 / Efecto edad-período-cohorte en la mortalidad por cáncer de cuello uterino en el Centro-Oeste de Brasil, 1980-2019

Objetivos: analisar o efeito da idade-período-coorte nas taxas de mortalidade por câncer do colo do útero no Centro-Oeste do Brasil. Métodos: estudo ecológico de séries temporais, de 1980 a 2019, cujas fontes de dados foram o Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade e as estimativas populacionais do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. Modelos de efeito idade-período-corte com distribuição de Poisson foram usados. Resultados: observaram-se 19.260 óbitos, correspondente à taxa de mortalidade padronizada média de 17,23/100 mil mulheres. O efeito da idade indicou aumento progressivo das taxas com o avançar da idade. O efeito do período evidenciou redução do risco de morte no Distrito Federal (2015-2019), Mato Grosso do Sul (2010-2014) e Mato Grosso (2010-2019), além de aumento em Goiás (2015-2019). O efeito da coorte revelou aumento do risco de morte para as nascidas antes de 1950-1954 e redução nas gerações a partir de 1955-1959. Conclusão: há evidências de efeito da idade-período-coorte na mortalidade por câncer do colo do útero no Centro-Oeste brasileiro, o que demanda fortalecimento de ações para sua prevenção e controle voltadas para mulheres de coortes e idades sob maior risco de morrer por essa causa.

Objectives: to analyze the effect of age-period-cohort on cervical cancer mortality rates in the Center-West of Brazil. Methods: ecological time series study from 1980 to 2019, utilizing data from the Mortality Information System and population estimates from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Age-period-cohort effect models with Poisson distribution were employed. Results: 19,260 deaths were observed, corresponding to an average standardized mortality rate of 17.23/100,000 women. The age effect indicated a progressive increase in rates as age advanced. The period effect showed a reduction in the risk of death in the Federal District (2015-2019), Mato Grosso do Sul (2010-2014), and Mato Grosso (2010-2019), as well as an increase in Goiás (2015-2019). The cohort effect showed an increase in the risk of death for those born before 1950-1954 and a reduction in the generations from 1955-1959 onwards. Conclusion: there is evidence of an age-period-cohort effect on mortality from cervical cancer in the Brazilian Center-West, which calls for the strengthening of actions for its prevention and control aimed at women of cohorts and ages at greater risk of dying from this cause.

Objetivos: análisis del efecto de la edad-período-cohorte en las tasas de mortalidad por cáncer de cuello uterino en el centro-oeste de Brasil. Métodos:estudio de series temporales ecológicas, de 1980 a 2019, cuyas fuentes de datos fueron el Sistema de Información de Mortalidad y las estimaciones de población del Instituto Brasileño de Geografía y Estadística. Se utilizaron modelos de efecto edad-período-corte con distribución de Poisson. Resultados: se registraron 19.260 fallecimientos, lo que corresponde a una tasa media de mortalidad estandarizada de 17,23/100.000 mujeres. El efecto edad indicó un aumento progresivo de las tasas con el avance de la edad. El efecto período mostró una reducción del riesgo de muerte en el Distrito Federal (2015-2019), Mato Grosso do Sul (2010-2014) y Mato Grosso (2010-2019), así como un aumento en Goiás (2015-2019). El efecto cohorte mostró un aumento del riesgo de muerte para los nacidos antes de 1950-1954 y una reducción en las generaciones a partir de 1955-1959. Conclusión: hay evidencias de un efecto edad-período-cohorte en la mortalidad por cáncer de cuello uterino en el Centro-Oeste brasileño, lo que exige el refuerzo de las acciones para su prevención y control dirigidas a las mujeres de cohortes y edades con mayor riesgo de morir por esta causa.

Secular trends in the incidence of major depressive disorder and dysthymia in China from 1990 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: Depression is increasingly recognized as a worldwide serious, public health concern. A better understanding of depression is important for advancing its management and learning the difference between major depressive disorder (MDD) and dysthymia. Our aim is to conduct a concurrent analysis of the trends of both MDD and dysthymia in China. METHODS: The data on depression from 1990 to 2019 were collected from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019). To determine the average annual percent changes (AAPC) and relative risks (RRs), joinpoint regression and the age-period-cohort models were employed, respectively. RESULTS: The incidence number of MDD and dysthymia continuously increased in China from 1990 to 2019, however, the age-standardized rates (ASR) had a decreasing trend in both men and women. The results from joinpoint regression showed that a declining trend was presented in young people (< 50 years) but an increased trend in the elderly (≥ 50 years) both in men and women, during 1990-2019. Age is the most influential factor for MDD and dysthymia. Age RRs for MDD incidence had an overall increasing trend with age. Period RR in MDD presented a U-shaped pattern, while Cohort RRs presented an inverted U-shaped pattern. On the other hand, RRs in dysthymia for period and cohort effects had no statistical significance, only the age effect presented an inverted U-shaped pattern. CONCLUSIONS: The disparities in trends observed between MDD and dysthymia during the period of 1990-2019 indicated the significance of distinguishing between these two disorders. The age, period and cohort effects all had a greater impact on MDD than on dysthymia, and age effects presented different influential patterns in these two. To alleviate the burden of depressive disorders in China, proactive measures need to be implemented, with particular attention to the elderly population.