Spatiotemporal Changes and Influencing Factors of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Guangzhou, China, From 2013 to 2022: Retrospective Analysis.

Background: In the past 10 years, the number of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) cases reported in Guangzhou, China, has averaged about 60,000 per year. It is necessary to conduct an in-depth analysis to understand the epidemiological pattern and related influencing factors of HFMD in this region. Objective: This study aims to describe the epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal distribution of HFMD cases in Guangzhou from 2013 to 2022 and explore the relationship between sociodemographic factors and HFMD incidence. Methods: The data of HFMD cases in Guangzhou come from the Infectious Disease Information Management System of the Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Spatial analysis and space-time scan statistics were used to visualize the spatiotemporal distribution of HFMD cases. Multifactor ordinary minimum regression model, geographically weighted regression, and geographically and temporally weighted regression were used to analyze the influencing factors, including population, economy, education, and medical care. Results: From 2013 to 2022, a total of 599,353 HFMD cases were reported in Guangzhou, with an average annual incidence rate of 403.62/100,000. Children aged 5 years and younger accounted for 93.64% (561,218/599,353) of all cases. HFMD cases showed obvious bimodal distribution characteristics, with the peak period from May to July and the secondary peak period from August to October. HFMDs in Guangzhou exhibited a spatial aggregation trend, with the central urban area showing a pattern of low-low aggregation and the peripheral urban area demonstrating high-high aggregation. High-risk areas showed a dynamic trend of shifting from the west to the east of peripheral urban areas, with coverage first increasing and then decreasing. The geographically and temporally weighted regression model results indicated that population density (ß=-0.016) and average annual income of employees (ß=-0.007) were protective factors for HFMD incidence, while the average number of students in each primary school (ß=1.416) and kindergarten (ß=0.412) was a risk factor. Conclusions: HFMD cases in Guangzhou were mainly infants and young children, and there were obvious differences in time and space. HFMD is highly prevalent in summer and autumn, and peripheral urban areas were identified as high-risk areas. Improving the economic level of peripheral urban areas and reducing the number of students in preschool education institutions are key strategies to controlling HFMD.

A Hand-Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreak in an Atypical Population of College Students.

Hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD), which is typically seen in the younger pediatric population, is uncommon in older adolescent and young adult populations. We report on an atypical outbreak of HFMD among college students at a mid-size university in the mid-Atlantic U.S. The outbreak included 138 qualifying cases of HFMD among students at the institution between August and November 2018. All tested samples were positive for CVA6, a less common cause of HFMD. Signs and symptoms and campus mitigation strategies are described. This case report aims to highlight an atypical outbreak of HFMD for clinicians who care for older adolescent and college-aged patients in primary care and community settings, and may see cases and/or outbreaks of HFMD in these populations.

Construction of effective reproduction number of infectious disease individuals based on spatiotemporal discriminant search model: take hand-foot-mouth disease as an example.

OBJECTIVE: In order to facilitate the tracing of infectious diseases in a small area and to effectively carry out disease control and epidemiological investigations, this research proposes a novel spatiotemporal model to estimate effective reproduction number(Re)for infectious diseases, based on the fundamental concept of contact tracing. METHODS: This study utilizes the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) among children in Bishan District, Chongqing, China from 2015 to 2019. The study incorporates the epidemiological characteristics of HFMD and aims to construct a Spatiotemporal Correlation Discrimination of HFMD. Utilizing ARC ENGINE and C# programming for the creation of a spatio-temporal database dedicated to HFMD to facilitate data collection and analysis. The scientific validity of the proposed method was verified by comparing the effective reproduction number obtained by the traditional SEIR model. RESULTS: We have ascertained the optimal search radius for the spatiotemporal search model to be 1.5 km. Upon analyzing the resulting Re values, which range from 1.14 to 4.75, we observe a skewed distribution pattern from 2015 to 2019. The median and quartile Re value recorded is 2.42 (1.98, 2.72). Except for 2018, the similarity coefficient r of the years 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2019 were all close to 1, and p <0.05 in the comparison of the two models, indicating that the Re values obtained by using the search model and the traditional SEIR model are correlated and closely related. The results exhibited similarity between the Re curves of both models and the epidemiological characteristics of HFMD. Finally, we illustrated the regional distribution of Re values obtained by the search model at various time intervals on Geographic Information System (GIS) maps which highlighted variations in the incidence of diseases across different communities, neighborhoods, and even smaller areas. CONCLUSION: The model comprehensively considers both temporal variation and spatial heterogeneity in disease transmission and accounts for each individual's distinct time of onset and spatial location. This proposed method differs significantly from existing mathematical models used for estimating Re in that it is founded on reasonable scientific assumptions and computer algorithms programming that take into account real-world spatiotemporal factors. It is particularly well-suited for estimating the Re of infectious diseases in relatively stable mobile populations within small geographical areas.

Molecular Evolutionary Dynamics of Coxsackievirus A6 Causing Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease From 2021 to 2023 in China: Genomic Epidemiology Study.

Background: Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a global public health concern, notably within the Asia-Pacific region. Recently, the primary pathogen causing HFMD outbreaks across numerous countries, including China, is coxsackievirus (CV) A6, one of the most prevalent enteroviruses in the world. It is a new variant that has undergone genetic recombination and evolution, which might not only induce modifications in the clinical manifestations of HFMD but also heighten its pathogenicity because of nucleotide mutation accumulation. Objective: The study assessed the epidemiological characteristics of HFMD in China and characterized the molecular epidemiology of the major pathogen (CV-A6) causing HFMD. We attempted to establish the association between disease progression and viral genetic evolution through a molecular epidemiological study. Methods: Surveillance data from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention from 2021 to 2023 were used to analyze the epidemiological seasons and peaks of HFMD in Henan, China, and capture the results of HFMD pathogen typing. We analyzed the evolutionary characteristics of all full-length CV-A6 sequences in the NCBI database and the isolated sequences in Henan. To characterize the molecular evolution of CV-A6, time-scaled tree and historical population dynamics regarding CV-A6 sequences were estimated. Additionally, we analyzed the isolated strains for mutated or missing amino acid sites compared to the prototype CV-A6 strain. Results: The 2021-2023 epidemic seasons for HFMD in Henan usually lasted from June to August, with peaks around June and July. The monthly case reporting rate during the peak period ranged from 20.7% (4854/23,440) to 35% (12,135/34,706) of the total annual number of cases. Analysis of the pathogen composition of 2850 laboratory-confirmed cases identified 8 enterovirus serotypes, among which CV-A6 accounted for the highest proportion (652/2850, 22.88%). CV-A6 emerged as the major pathogen for HFMD in 2022 (203/732, 27.73%) and 2023 (262/708, 37.01%). We analyzed all CV-A6 full-length sequences in the NCBI database and the evolutionary features of viruses isolated in Henan. In China, the D3 subtype gradually appeared from 2011, and by 2019, all CV-A6 virus strains belonged to the D3 subtype. The VP1 sequences analyzed in Henan showed that its subtypes were consistent with the national subtypes. Furthermore, we analyzed the molecular evolutionary features of CV-A6 using Bayesian phylogeny and found that the most recent common ancestor of CV-A6 D3 dates back to 2006 in China, earlier than the 2011 HFMD outbreak. Moreover, the strains isolated in 2023 had mutations at several amino acid sites compared to the original strain. Conclusions: The CV-A6 virus may have been introduced and circulating covertly within China prior to the large-scale HFMD outbreak. Our laboratory testing data confirmed the fluctuation and periodic patterns of CV-A6 prevalence. Our study provides valuable insights into understanding the evolutionary dynamics of CV-A6.

Assessing the modification impact of vaccination on the relationship of the Discomfort Index with hand, foot, and mouth disease in Guizhou: A multicounty study.

BACKGROUND: Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a major public health issue in China while temperature and humidity are well-documented predictors. However, evidence on the combined effect of temperature and humidity is still limited. It also remains unclear whether such an effect could be modified by the enterovirus 71 (EV71) vaccination. METHODS: Based on 320,042 reported HFMD cases during the summer months between 2012 and 2019, we conducted a study utilizing Distributed Lag Non-Linear Models (DLNM) and time-varying DLNM to examine how China's HFMD EV71 vaccine strategy would affect the correlation between meteorological conditions and HFMD risk. RESULTS: The incidence of HFMD changed with the Discomfort Index in an arm-shaped form. The 14-day cumulative risk of HFMD exhibited a statistically significant increase during the period of 2017-2019 (following the implementation of the EV71 vaccine policy) compared to 2012-2016 (prior to the vaccine implementation). For the total population, the range of relative risk (RR) values for HFMD at the 75th, 90th, and 99th percentiles increased from 1.082-1.303 in 2012-2016 to 1.836-2.022 in 2017-2019. In the stratified analyses, Han Chinese areas show stronger relative growth, with RR values at the 75th, 90th, and 99th percentiles increased by 14.3%, 39.1%, and 134.4% post-vaccination, compared to increases of 22.7%, 41.6%, and 38.8% in minority areas. Similarly, boys showed greater increases (24.4%, 47.7%, 121.5%) compared to girls (8.1%, 28.1%, 58.3%). Additionally, the central Guizhou urban agglomeration displayed a tendency for stronger relative growth compared to other counties. CONCLUSIONS: Although the EV71 vaccine policy has been implemented, it hasn't effectively controlled the overall risk of HFMD. There's been a shift in the main viral subtypes, potentially altering population susceptibility and influencing HFMD occurrences. The modulating effects of vaccine intervention may also be influenced by factors such as race, sex, and economic level.

Molecular characteristics of the structure protein VP1 in Coxsackievirus A10 Isolates from China.

INTRODUCTION: Coxsackievirus A10 (CVA10) is a non-enveloped, positive-sense single-stranded RNA virus classified within the Enterovirus genus in the Picornaviridae family. It is among the pathogens that can cause hand, foot and mouth disease. This study aimed to analyze the temporal and spatial distribution of CVA10 in China to understand its epidemiological characteristics of CVA10. METHODOLOGY: We collected the VP1 sequences of CVA10 from January 1, 2004, to December 31, 2019, from the GenBank database and created the global map using MapChart. We selected 56 known CVA10 genotype sequences. Then, MEGA6.06 was used to construct a phylogenetic tree with the collected gene sequences and the known reference sequences for comparative analysis to assess the distribution of CVA10 genotypes in different countries between 2004 and 2019. RESULTS: CVA10 has been widely detected or reported globally. In China, the prevalent genotype of CVA10 was mainly genotype B before 2008 and genotype C after 2009. In other countries, the prevalence of genotype D was dominant, followed by genotypes C and F, and the prevalence of CVA10 varied from continent to continent. CONCLUSIONS: Monitoring CVA10 genotypes or evolutionary branches should be strengthened, and the study of epidemic genotype characteristics should be enhanced. This will serve as a basis for further research and development of monovalent CVA10 or polyvalent vaccines designed for effective disease prevention.

Clinical features of hand, foot and mouth disease caused by Coxsackievirus A6 in Xi'an, China, 2013-2019: A multicenter observational study.

PURPOSE: To investigate the clinical features of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) caused by coxsackievirus A6 (CVA6) and this work may help early diagnose of atypical HFMD. METHODS: From January 2013 to December 2019, a total of 7,208 patients with a clinical diagnosis of HFMD in Xi'an Children's Hospital, Xi'an Central Hospital, and Xi'an Jiaotong University Second Affiliated Hospital, were included in this observational study. The clinical data, specimens and follow-up results were collected. Real-time RT‒PCR was performed for the detection and typing of enterovirus nucleic acids. RESULTS: Of the 7,208 clinically diagnosed HFMD patients, 5,622 were positive for enterovirus nucleic acids, and the positive proportions of CVA6, enterovirus 71 (EV-A71), coxsackievirus A16 (CVA16), and other enteroviruses were 31.0% (1,742/5,622), 27.0% (1,518/5,622), 35.0% (1,968/5,622), and 7.0% (394/5,622), respectively. Based on the etiology, patients were divided into CVA6 group, EV-A71group, and CVA16 group. The mean age at onset was significantly higher in the CVA6 group (4.62±2.13 years) than in the EV-A71 group and CVA16 group (3.45±2.25 years and 3.35±2.13 years, respectively; both P < 0.05). The male/female ratio was 1.45 (1,031/711) in the CVA6 group and was not significantly different from the other two groups. The incidence of fever was significantly higher in the CVA6 group [82.5% (1,437/1,742)] than in the EV-A71 group [51.3% (779/1,518)] and the CVA16 group [45.9% (903/1,968)] (P < 0.05). In the CVA6 group, the rashes were more frequently on the trunk and elbows/knees and were significantly different from the other two groups (P < 0.05). The number of patients with two or more rash morphologies was significantly higher in the CVA6 group than in the other two groups (P < 0.05). The incidence of bullous rash in the CVA6 group [20.2%; n = 352] was higher than in the EV-A71 group [0.33%; n = 5] and CVA16 group [0.66%; n = 13] (P < 0.05). The incidence of neurological complications was significantly higher in the EV-A71 group [52.1% (791/1,518)] than in the CVA16 group [5.1% (100/1,968)] and the CVA6 group [0.8% (14/1,742)] (P < 0.05). In the follow-up period, 160 patients (9.2%) with CVA6 HFMD experienced onychomadesis, but no onychomadesis was observed in the EV-A71 and CVA16 groups. The average WBC count was significantly higher in the CVA6 group than in the CVA16 group (P < 0.05). The number of patients with increased CRP was significantly larger in the CVA6 group than in the CVA16 group but was significantly smaller than that in the EV-A71 group (P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: CVA6 has become one of the main pathogens of HFMD in the Xi'an area during 2013-2019. The main clinical manifestations were slightly different from those of HFMD caused by EV-A71 or CVA16, with a higher frequency of fever, diverse morphologies and diffuse distribution of rashes, fewer neurological complications and some onychomadesis.

The Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease Sentinel Surveillance System in South Korea: Retrospective Evaluation Study.

Background: South Korea has implemented a hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) surveillance system since 2009 to monitor incidence trends and identify disease burden. This nationwide surveillance involves a network of approximately 100 pediatric clinics that report all probable and confirmed HFMD cases. Following the COVID-19 pandemic, infectious disease surveillance systems must be evaluated to ensure the effective use of limited public health resources. Objective: This study aimed to evaluate the HFMD sentinel surveillance system in South Korea from 2017 to 2022, focusing on the transition period after the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed the HFMD sentinel surveillance system from the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency using systematic guidelines for public health surveillance system evaluation developed by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. We assessed the system's overall performance in 5 main factors: timeliness, stability, completeness, sensitivity, and representativeness (ie, the age and geographic distribution of sentinels). We rated these factors as weak, moderate, or good. Results: Our study showed that the completeness, sensitivity, and age representativeness of the HFMD surveillance performance were temporarily reduced to moderate levels from 2020 to 2021 and recovered in 2022, while the timeliness and geographic representativeness were maintained at a good level throughout the study period. The stability of the surveillance was moderate from 2017 to 2021 and weak in 2022. Conclusions: This is the first study to evaluate the HFMD surveillance system after the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. We identified a temporarily reduced level of performance (ie, completeness, sensitivity, and age-specific representativeness) during the acute phase of the pandemic and good performance in 2022. Surveillance system evaluation and maintenance during public health emergencies will provide robust and reliable data to support public health policy development. Regular staff training programs and reducing staff turnover will improve HFMD surveillance system stability.

First detection of multiple cases related to CV-A16 strain of B1c clade in Beijing in 2022.

Coxsackievirus A16 (CV-A16) is a significant etiologic agent of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) and herpangina (HA), with the capacity to progress to severe complications, including encephalitis, aseptic meningitis, acute flaccid paralysis, myocarditis, and other critical conditions. Beijing's epidemiological surveillance system, established in 2008, encompasses 29 hospitals and 16 district disease control centers. From 2019 to 2021, the circulation of CV-A16 was characterized by the co-circulation of B1a and B1b clades. Multiple cases of HFMD linked to clade B1c has not been reported in Beijing until 2022. This study enrolled 400 HFMD and 493 HA cases. Employing real-time RT-PCR, 368 enterovirus-positive cases were identified, with 180 selected for sequencing. CV-A16 was detected in 18.89% (34/180) of the cases, second only to CV-A6, identified in 63.33% (114/180). Full-length VP1 gene sequences were successfully amplified and sequenced in 22 cases, revealing the presence of clades B1a, B1b, and B1c in 14, 3, and 5 cases, respectively. A cluster of five B1c clade cases occurred between June 29 and July 17, 2022, within a 7-km diameter region in Shunyi District. Phylogenetic analysis of five complete VP1 gene sequences and two full-genome sequences revealed close clustering with the 2018 Indian strain (GenBank accession: MH780757.1) within the B1c India branch, with NCBI BLAST results showing over 98% similarity. Comparative sequence analysis identified three unique amino acid variations (P3S, V25A, and I235V). The 2022 Shunyi District HFMD cases represent the first instances of spatiotemporally correlated CV-A16 B1c clade infections in Beijing, underscoring the necessity for heightened surveillance of B1c clade CV-A16 in HFMD and HA in this region.

Increasing intensity of enterovirus outbreaks projected with climate change.

Pathogens of the enterovirus genus, including poliovirus and coxsackieviruses, typically circulate in the summer months suggesting a possible positive association between warmer weather and transmission. Here we evaluate the environmental and demographic drivers of enterovirus transmission, as well as the implications of climate change for future enterovirus circulation. We leverage pre-vaccination era data on polio in the US as well as data on two enterovirus A serotypes in China and Japan that are known to cause hand, foot, and mouth disease. Using mechanistic modeling and statistical approaches, we find that enterovirus transmission appears positively correlated with temperature although demographic factors, particularly the timing of school semesters, remain important. We use temperature projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to simulate future outbreaks under late 21st-century climate change for Chinese provinces. We find that outbreak size increases with climate change on average, though results differ across climate models depending on the degree of wintertime warming. In the worst-case scenario, we project peak outbreaks in some locations could increase by up to 40%.

Frontiers and hotspots in hand, foot, and mouth disease research during 2006 to 2023: A bibliometric and visual analysis.

BACKGROUND: Enteroviruses-infected hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) seriously threatens human health. This study aimed to analyze the research status, hotspots, and frontiers of HFMD. METHODS: Publications on HFMD between January 1, 2006, and January 31, 2023, were retrieved from the Web of Science Core database. Bibliometric tools, including CiteSpace, VOSviewer, R package "Bibiometrix," SCImago Graphica, and Charticulator, were utilized to analyze and visualize the data. RESULTS: A total of 1860 articles from 424 journals, involving 8815 authors from 64 countries and 1797 institutions were analyzed. The number of studies on HFMD has shown an increasing trend over the past 18 years, with an annual increase observed since 2006, which is particularly prominent after 2010. Research in this field has centered on the Asian region. Notably, the research hotspots were mainly focused on vaccines, epidemiology, and pathogenesis of HFMD. Among the researchers in this field, Zhang Yong emerged as the most prolific author, while Xu Wenbo had the most significant influence. The Chinese Academy of Sciences was the most productive institution, and China was the most productive country for HFMD research. CONCLUSION: By bibliometric analysis, researchers in the HMFD field can efficiently identify and visually represent their research focus and limitations. In the future, it is crucial to maintain ongoing surveillance of HFMD outbreaks and their pathogenic changes. Additionally, future research should extensively explore the molecular mechanisms underlying Enteroviruses-induced HFMD with a focus on developing vaccines and therapies.

Genetic variation and evolutionary characteristics of Echovirus 11: new variant within genotype D5 associated with neonatal death found in China.

Echovirus 11 (E11) has gained attention owing to its association with severe neonatal infections. From 2018 to 2023, a surge in severe neonatal cases and fatalities linked to a novel variant of genotype D5 was documented in China, France, and Italy. However, the prevention and control of E11 variants have been hampered by limited background data on the virus circulation and genetic variance. Therefore, the present study investigated the circulating dynamics of E11 and the genetic variation and molecular evolution of genotype D5 through the collection of strains from the national acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) and hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) surveillance system in China during 2000-2022 and genetic sequences published in the GenBank database. The results of this study revealed a prevalent dynamic of E11 circulation, with D5 being the predominant genotype worldwide. Further phylogenetic analysis of genotype D5 indicated that it could be subdivided into three important geographic clusters (D5-CHN1: 2014-2019, D5-CHN2: 2016-2022, and D5-EUR: 2022-2023). Additionally, variant-specific (144) amino acid mutation sites and positive-selection pressure sites (132, 262) were identified in the VP1 region. Cluster-specific recombination patterns were also identified, with CVB5, E6, and CVB4 as the major recombinant viruses. These findings provide a preliminary landscape of E11 circulation worldwide and basic scientific data for further study of the pathogenicity of E11 variants.

Epidemiological and etiological investigations of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Jiashan, northeastern Zhejiang Province, China, during 2016 to 2022.

Background: Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a common infectious disease in children. Enterovirus A71 (EV71) and coxsackievirus A16 (CA16) have been identified as the predominant pathogens for several decades. In recent years, coxsackievirus A6 (CA6) and coxsackievirus A10 (CA10) have played increasingly important roles in a series of HFMD outbreaks. We performed a retrospective analysis of the epidemiology of HFMD and the spectrum of different viral serotypes, to elucidate the genetic and phylogenetic characteristics of the main serotypes in the Jiashan area during 2016 to 2022. Methods: Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the time and population distribution of HFMD in Jiashan during 2016 to 2022 based on surveillance data. Molecular diagnostic methods were performed to identify the viral serotypes and etiological characteristics of HFMD. Phylogenetic analyses was based on VP1 region of CA16 and CA6. Results: The average annual incidence rate of HFMD fluctuated from 2016 to 2022. Children aged 1-5 years accounted for 81.65% of cases and boys were more frequently affected than girls. Except when HFMD was affected by the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020 and 2022, epidemics usually peak in June to July, followed by a small secondary peak from October to December and a decline in February. Urban areas had a high average incidence and rural areas had the lowest. Among 560 sample collected in Jiashan, 472 (84.29%) were positive for enterovirus. The most frequently identified serotypes were CA6 (296, 52.86%), CA16 (102, 18.21%), EV71 (16, 2.86%), CA10 (14, 2.50%) and other enteroviruses (44, 7.86%). There were 71 and 142 VP1 sequences from CA16 and CA6, respectively. Substitution of N218D, A220L and V251I was detected in CA16 and may have been related to viral infectivity. Phylogenetic analysis showed that CA16 could be assigned to two genogroups, B1a and B1b, while all the CA6 sequences belonged to the D3a genogroup. Conclusion: CA6 and CA16 were the two major serotypes of enteroviruses circulating in the Jiashan area during 2016 to 2022. Continuous and comprehensive surveillance for HFMD is needed to better understand and evaluate the prevalence and evolution of the associated pathogens.

Evolution, recombination and geographic spreading of global Coxsackievirus A6.

BACKGROUND: The increasing incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) associated with Coxsackievirus A6 (CVA6) has become a very significant public health problem. The aim of this study is to investigate the recombination, geographic transmission, and evolutionary characteristics of the global CVA6. METHODS: From 2019 to 2022, 73 full-length CVA6 sequences were obtained from HFMD patients in China and analyzed in combination with 1032 published whole genome sequences. Based on this dataset, the phylogenetic features, recombinant diversity, Bayesian phylodynamic characteristics, and key amino acid variations in CVA6 were analyzed. RESULTS: The four genotypes of CVA6, A, D, E, and F, are divided into 24 recombinant forms (RFs, RF-A - RF-X) based on differences in the P3 coding region. The eastern China region plays a key role in the dissemination of CVA6 in China. VP1-137 and VP1-138 are located in the DE loop on the surface of the CVA6 VP1 protein, with the former being a highly variable site and the latter having more non-synonymous substitutions. CONCLUSIONS: Based on whole genome sequences, this study contributes to the CVA6 monitoring, early warning, and the pathogenic mechanism by studying recombination diversity, geographical transmission characteristics, and the variation of important amino acid sites.

Effects of extreme meteorological factors and high air pollutant concentrations on the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Jining, China.

Background: The evidence on the effects of extreme meteorological conditions and high air pollution levels on incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is limited. Moreover, results of the available studies are inconsistent. Further investigations are imperative to elucidate the specific issue. Methods: Data on the daily cases of HFMD, meteorological factors and air pollution were obtained from 2017 to 2022 in Jining City. We employed distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) incorporated with Poisson regression to explore the impacts of extreme meteorological conditions and air pollution on HFMD incidence. Results: We found that there were nonlinear relationships between temperature, wind speed, PM2.5, SO2, O3 and HFMD. The cumulative risk of extreme high temperature was higher at the 95th percentile (P95th) than at the 90th percentile(P90th), and the RR values for both reached their maximum at 10-day lag (P95th RR = 1.880 (1.261-2.804), P90th RR = 1.787 (1.244-2.569)), the hazardous effect of extreme low temperatures on HFMD is faster than that of extreme high temperatures. The cumulative effect of extreme low wind speeds reached its maximum at 14-day lag (P95th RR = 1.702 (1.389-2.085), P90th RR = 1.498(1.283-1.750)). The cumulative effect of PM2.5 concentration at the P90th was largest at 14-day lag (RR = 1.637 (1.069-2.506)), and the cumulative effect at the P95th was largest at 10-day lag (RR = 1.569 (1.021-2.411)). High SO2 concentration at the P95th at 14-day lag was associated with higher risk for HFMD (RR: 1.425 (1.001-2.030)). Conclusion: Our findings suggest that high temperature, low wind speed, and high concentrations of PM2.5 and SO2 are associated with an increased risk of HFMD. This study not only adds insights to the understanding of the impact of extreme meteorological conditions and high levels of air pollutants on HFMD incidence but also holds practical significance for the development and enhancement of an early warning system for HFMD.

Genomic epidemiology of CVA10 in Guangdong, China, 2013-2021.

Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD) is a highly contagious viral illness primarily affecting children globally. A significant epidemiological transition has been noted in mainland China, characterized by a substantial increase in HFMD cases caused by non-Enterovirus A71 (EV-A71) and non-Coxsackievirus A16 (CVA16) enteroviruses (EVs). Our study conducts a retrospective examination of 36,461 EV-positive specimens collected from Guangdong, China, from 2013 to 2021. Epidemiological trends suggest that, following 2013, Coxsackievirus A6 (CVA6) and Coxsackievirus A10 (CVA10) have emerged as the primary etiological agents for HFMD. In stark contrast, the incidence of EV-A71 has sharply declined, nearing extinction after 2018. Notably, cases of CVA10 infection were considerably younger, with a median age of 1.8 years, compared to 2.3 years for those with EV-A71 infections, possibly indicating accumulated EV-A71-specific herd immunity among young children. Through extensive genomic sequencing and analysis, we identified the N136D mutation in the 2 A protein, contributing to a predominant subcluster within genogroup C of CVA10 circulating in Guangdong since 2017. Additionally, a high frequency of recombination events was observed in genogroup F of CVA10, suggesting that the prevalence of this lineage might be underrecognized. The dynamic landscape of EV genotypes, along with their potential to cause outbreaks, underscores the need to broaden surveillance efforts to include a more diverse spectrum of EV genotypes. Moreover, given the shifting dominance of EV genotypes, it may be prudent to re-evaluate and optimize existing vaccination strategies, which are currently focused primarily target EV-A71.

Impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and interventions on hand, foot and mouth disease in Zhengzhou, China, 2014-2022: a retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: Since December 2019, COVID-19 has spread rapidly around the world, and studies have shown that measures to prevent COVID-19 can largely reduce the spread of other infectious diseases. This study explored the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and interventions on the incidence of HFMD. METHODS: We gathered data on the prevalence of HFMD from the Children's Hospital Affiliated to Zhengzhou University. An autoregressive integrated moving average model was constructed using HFMD incidence data from 2014 to 2019, the number of cases predicted from 2020 to 2022 was predicted, and the predicted values were compared with the actual measurements. RESULTS: From January 2014 to October 2022, the Children's Hospital of Zhengzhou University admitted 103,995 children with HFMD. The average number of cases of HFMD from 2020 to 2022 was 4,946, a significant decrease from 14,859 cases from 2014 to 2019. We confirmed the best ARIMA (2,0,0) (1,1,0)12 model. From 2020 to 2022, the yearly number of cases decreased by 46.58%, 75.54%, and 66.16%, respectively, compared with the forecasted incidence. Trends in incidence across sexes and ages displayed patterns similar to those overall. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 outbreak and interventions reduced the incidence of HFMD compared to that before the outbreak. Strengthening public health interventions remains a priority in the prevention of HFMD.

Modeling and analysis of the effect of optimal virus control on the spread of HFMD.

A within-host and between-host hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) mathematical model is established and the affect of optimal control in its within-host part on HFMD transmission is studied. Through define two basic reproduction numbers, by using the fast-slow system analysis method of time scale, the global stabilities of the between-host (slow) system and within-host (fast) system are researched, respectively. An optimal control problem with drug-treatment control on coupled within-host and between-host HFMD model is formulated and analysed theoretically. Finally, the purposed optimal control measures are applied to the actual HFMD epidemic analysis in Zhejiang Province, China from April 1, 2021 to June 30, 2021. The numerical results show that the drug control strategies can reduce the virus load per capita and can effectively prevent large-scale outbreaks of HFMD.

Epidemiological and Genetic Characterization of Coxsackievirus A6-Associated Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Gwangju, South Korea, in 2022.

Coxsackievirus A6 (CV-A6) has emerged as the predominant causative agent of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in young children. Since the declaration of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) as a global pandemic, the incidence of infectious diseases, including HFMD, has decreased markedly. When social mitigation was relaxed during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2022, the re-emergence of HFMD was observed in Gwangju, South Korea, and seasonal characteristics of the disease appeared to have changed. To investigate the molecular characteristics of enterovirus (EV) associated with HFMD during 2022, 277 specimens were collected. Children aged younger than 5 years accounted for the majority of affected individuals. EV detection and genotyping were performed using real-time RT-PCR and nested RT-PCR followed by sequence analysis. The EV detection rate was found to be 82.3%, and the main genotype identified was CV-A6. Sixteen CV-A6 samples were selected for whole genome sequencing. According to phylogenetic analysis, all CV-A6 strains from this study belonged to the sub-genotype D3 clade based on VP1 sequences. Analysis of 3D polymerase phylogeny showed that only the recombinant RF-A group was identified. In conclusion, circulating EV types should be continuously monitored to understand pathogen emergence and evolution during the post-pandemic era.