Mortality in Innu communities in Labrador, 1993-2018: a cross-sectional study of causes and location of death.

In Canada, most people prefer to die at home. However, the proportion of deaths that occur in hospital has increased over time. This study examined mortality rates and proportionate mortality in Innu communities in Labrador, and compared patterns to other communities in Labrador and Newfoundland. We conducted a cross-sectional ecological study with mortality data from the vital statistics system. This included information about all deaths in Newfoundland and Labrador from 1993 to 2018. We used descriptive statistics and rates to examine patterns by age, sex, cause and location. During the 2003 to 2018 period the leading cause of death in the Innu communities (excluding external causes) was cancer, followed by circulatory disease and respiratory disease. Between 1993 and 2018, there was a lower percentage of hospital deaths and a higher percentage of at home deaths in Innu communities than in the rest of the province. The majority of deaths among Innu were due to cancer and chronic diseases. We found a higher percentage of at home deaths in Innu communities compared to the rest of the province.

All-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality and wildfire-related ozone: a multicountry two-stage time series analysis.

BACKGROUND: Wildfire activity is an important source of tropospheric ozone (O3) pollution. However, no study to date has systematically examined the associations of wildfire-related O3 exposure with mortality globally. METHODS: We did a multicountry two-stage time series analysis. From the Multi-City Multi-Country (MCC) Collaborative Research Network, data on daily all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory deaths were obtained from 749 locations in 43 countries or areas, representing overlapping periods from Jan 1, 2000, to Dec 31, 2016. We estimated the daily concentration of wildfire-related O3 in study locations using a chemical transport model, and then calibrated and downscaled O3 estimates to a resolution of 0·25°â€ˆ× 0·25° (approximately 28 km2 at the equator). Using a random-effects meta-analysis, we examined the associations of short-term wildfire-related O3 exposure (lag period of 0-2 days) with daily mortality, first at the location level and then pooled at the country, regional, and global levels. Annual excess mortality fraction in each location attributable to wildfire-related O3 was calculated with pooled effect estimates and used to obtain excess mortality fractions at country, regional, and global levels. FINDINGS: Between 2000 and 2016, the highest maximum daily wildfire-related O3 concentrations (≥30 µg/m3) were observed in locations in South America, central America, and southeastern Asia, and the country of South Africa. Across all locations, an increase of 1 µg/m3 in the mean daily concentration of wildfire-related O3 during lag 0-2 days was associated with increases of 0·55% (95% CI 0·29 to 0·80) in daily all-cause mortality, 0·44% (-0·10 to 0·99) in daily cardiovascular mortality, and 0·82% (0·18 to 1·47) in daily respiratory mortality. The associations of daily mortality rates with wildfire-related O3 exposure showed substantial geographical heterogeneity at the country and regional levels. Across all locations, estimated annual excess mortality fractions of 0·58% (95% CI 0·31 to 0·85; 31 606 deaths [95% CI 17 038 to 46 027]) for all-cause mortality, 0·41% (-0·10 to 0·91; 5249 [-1244 to 11 620]) for cardiovascular mortality, and 0·86% (0·18 to 1·51; 4657 [999 to 8206]) for respiratory mortality were attributable to short-term exposure to wildfire-related O3. INTERPRETATION: In this study, we observed an increase in all-cause and respiratory mortality associated with short-term wildfire-related O3 exposure. Effective risk and smoke management strategies should be implemented to protect the public from the impacts of wildfires. FUNDING: Australian Research Council and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

Long-term noise exposure and cause-specific mortality in chronic respiratory diseases, considering the modifying effect of air pollution.

BACKGROUND: Chronic respiratory diseases (CRDs) are among the top three causes of human mortality. The relationship between modifiable environmental risk factor of noise and risk of mortality in CRDs is unclear. We investigated the longitudinal association between environmental noise exposure and cause-specific mortality in individuals with CRDs, considering the modifying effect of air pollution. METHODS: Residential noise exposure was modelled using Common Noise Assessment Methods in Europe. Information on death causes were acquired from death registry data. Cox proportional-hazards models were used to estimate effect sizes. RESULTS: Among 41,222 participants selected from UK Biobank with CRDs in baseline, a total of 3618 death cases occurred during an average follow-up of 12 years with mortality density of 7.16 per 1000 person years. Exposure with highest noise level (> percentile 90) were associated with 22 % (Hazard ratio [HR] = 1.22, 95 % confidence interval [CI]: 1.05, 1.42), 71 % (HR = 1.71, 95 % CI: 1.14, 2.56), and 84 % (HR = 1.84, 95 % CI: 1.10, 3.07) increased risks for all-cause, respiratory disease (RD)-cause, and COPD-cause mortalities, separately. Both multiplicative and additive interactions was found between air pollution and noise with the risk of RD-cause mortality. Participants with high air pollution and noise exposure were associated with a 101 % (HR = 2.01, 95 % CI: 1.10, 3.66) increased risk of RD-cause mortality. CONCLUSION: It is imperative to mitigate noise exposure as a preventive measure against incident mortality in individuals with CRDs.

The impacts of extreme heat events on non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality: An analysis of 12 Canadian cities from 2000 to 2020.

Background: Extreme heat has significant impacts on mortality. In Canada, past research has analyzed the degree to which non-accidental mortality increases during single extreme heat events; however, few studies have considered multiple causes of death and the impacts of extreme heat events on mortality over longer time periods. Data and methods: Daily death counts attributable to non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory causes were retrieved for the 12 most populous cities in Canada from 2000 to 2020. Generalized additive models were applied to quantify daily mortality risks for people aged younger than 65 years and for those aged 65 years and older in each city and for each cause of death. Model results were used to calculate the change in mortality risks and the number of excess deaths attributable to extreme heat during extreme heat events. Results: Elevated mortality risks were observed during extreme heat events in most cities for non-accidental and respiratory causes. The impacts of extreme heat on non-accidental mortality were typically greater for people aged 65 and older than for those aged younger than 65. Significantly higher non-accidental mortality risks were observed during extreme heat events for people aged 65 and older in Montréal, the city of Québec, Surrey, and Toronto. For cardiovascular and respiratory causes, people aged 65 and older had significantly higher mortality risks during extreme heat events in Montréal, and both Montréal and Toronto, respectively. In the 12 cities, approximately 670 excess non-accidental deaths, 115 excess cardiovascular deaths, and 115 excess respiratory deaths were attributable to extreme heat events during the study period. Mortality risks during extreme heat events were generally higher in cities with larger proportions of renter households and fewer extreme heat events. Interpretation: This study estimates the longer-term impacts of extreme heat events on three mortality outcomes in a set of large Canadian cities. As climate change causes more frequent and intense extreme heat events, and as policy makers aim to reduce the health impacts of heat, it is important to understand how and where extreme heat affects health.

Demographic and geographical trends in chronic lower respiratory diseases mortality in the United States, 1999 to 2020.

Chronic lower respiratory disease (CLRD) related mortality has decreased in the United States due to increasing awareness in the general population and advancing preventative efforts, diagnostic measures, and treatment. However, demographic and regional differences still persist throughout the United States. In this study, we analyzed the temporal trends of demographic and geographical differences in CLRD-related mortality. Data was extracted from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (CDC WONDER) database. Using this data, age-adjusted mortality rates per 100,000 people (AAMR), annual percentage change (APC), and average annual percentage changes with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were assessed. The Joinpoint Regression Program was used to determine mortality trends between 1999 and 2020 based on demographic and regional groups.During this study period, there were 3,064,049 CLRD-related deaths, with most demographics and regional areas showing an overall decreasing trend. However, higher mortality rates were seen in the non-Hispanic White population and rural areas. Interestingly, mortality rates witnessed a decreasing trend for males throughout the study duration compared to females, who only began to show decreases in mortality during the latter half of the 2010s. Using these results, one can target efforts and build policies to improve CLRD-related mortality and reduce disparities in the coming decades.

The temporal variation in the effects of extreme temperature on respiratory mortality: Evidence from 136 cities in China, 2006-2019.

BACKGROUND: In the context of climate change and urbanization, the temporal variation of the adverse health effect of extreme temperature has attracted increasing attention. METHODS: The meteorological data and the daily death records of mortality from respiratory diseases of 136 Chinese cities were from 2006 to 2019. Heat wave and cold spell were selected as the indicator events of extreme high temperature and extreme low temperature, respectively. The generalized linear model and time-varying distributed lag model were used to perform a two-stage time-series analysis to evaluate the temporal variation of the mortality risk associated with extreme temperature in the total population, sub-populations (sex- and age- specific) and different regions (climatic zone and relative humidity level). RESULTS: During the study period, relative risk (RR) of respiratory mortality associated with heat wave decreased from 1.22 (95 %CI: 1.07-1.39) to 1.13 (95 %CI: 1.01-1.26) in the total population, and RR of respiratory mortality associated with cold spell decreased from 1.30 (95 %CI: 1.14-1.49) to 1.17 (95 %CI: 1.08-1.26). The impact of heat wave reduced in the males (P = 0.044) and in the females as with cold spell (P < 0.001). The respiratory mortality risk of people over 65 associated with cold spell decreased (P = 0.040 for people aged 65-74 and P < 0.001 for people over 75). The effect of cold spell reduced in cities from tropical or arid zone (P = 0.035). The effects of both heat wave and cold spell decreased in cities with the relative humidity in the first quartile (P = 0.046 and 0.010, respectively). CONCLUSION: The impact of heat wave on mortality of respiratory diseases decreased mainly in males and cities with the lowest relative humidity, while the impact of cold spell reduced in females, people over 65 and tropical and arid zone, suggesting adaptation to extreme temperature of Chinese residents to some extent.

Ambient fine particulate matter and daily mortality: a comparative analysis of observed and estimated exposure in 347 cities.

BACKGROUND: Model-estimated air pollution exposure products have been widely used in epidemiological studies to assess the health risks of particulate matter with diameters of ≤2.5 µm (PM2.5). However, few studies have assessed the disparities in health effects between model-estimated and station-observed PM2.5 exposures. METHODS: We collected daily all-cause, respiratory and cardiovascular mortality data in 347 cities across 15 countries and regions worldwide based on the Multi-City Multi-Country collaborative research network. The station-observed PM2.5 data were obtained from official monitoring stations. The model-estimated global PM2.5 product was developed using a machine-learning approach. The associations between daily exposure to PM2.5 and mortality were evaluated using a two-stage analytical approach. RESULTS: We included 15.8 million all-cause, 1.5 million respiratory and 4.5 million cardiovascular deaths from 2000 to 2018. Short-term exposure to PM2.5 was associated with a relative risk increase (RRI) of mortality from both station-observed and model-estimated exposures. Every 10-µg/m3 increase in the 2-day moving average PM2.5 was associated with overall RRIs of 0.67% (95% CI: 0.49 to 0.85), 0.68% (95% CI: -0.03 to 1.39) and 0.45% (95% CI: 0.08 to 0.82) for all-cause, respiratory, and cardiovascular mortality based on station-observed PM2.5 and RRIs of 0.87% (95% CI: 0.68 to 1.06), 0.81% (95% CI: 0.08 to 1.55) and 0.71% (95% CI: 0.32 to 1.09) based on model-estimated exposure, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality risks associated with daily PM2.5 exposure were consistent for both station-observed and model-estimated exposures, suggesting the reliability and potential applicability of the global PM2.5 product in epidemiological studies.

Comparison for the effects of different components of temperature variability on mortality: A multi-country time-series study.

BACKGROUND: Temperature variability (TV) is associated with increased mortality risk. However, it is still unknown whether intra-day or inter-day TV has different effects. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to assess the association of intra-day TV and inter-day TV with all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. METHODS: We collected data on total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality and meteorology from 758 locations in 47 countries or regions from 1972 to 2020. We defined inter-day TV as the standard deviation (SD) of daily mean temperatures across the lag interval, and intra-day TV as the average SD of minimum and maximum temperatures on each day. In the first stage, inter-day and intra-day TVs were modelled simultaneously in the quasi-Poisson time-series model for each location. In the second stage, a multi-level analysis was used to pool the location-specific estimates. RESULTS: Overall, the mortality risk due to each interquartile range [IQR] increase was higher for intra-day TV than for inter-day TV. The risk increased by 0.59% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.53, 0.65) for all-cause mortality, 0.64% (95% CI: 0.56, 0.73) for cardiovascular mortality, and 0.65% (95% CI: 0.49, 0.80) for respiratory mortality per IQR increase in intra-day TV0-7 (0.9 °C). An IQR increase in inter-day TV0-7 (1.6 °C) was associated with 0.22% (95% CI: 0.18, 0.26) increase in all-cause mortality, 0.44% (95% CI: 0.37, 0.50) increase in cardiovascular mortality, and 0.31% (95% CI: 0.21, 0.41) increase in respiratory mortality. The proportion of all-cause deaths attributable to intra-day TV0-7 and inter-day TV0-7 was 1.45% and 0.35%, respectively. The mortality risks varied by lag interval, climate area, season, and climate type. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicated that intra-day TV may explain the main part of the mortality risk related to TV and suggested that comprehensive evaluations should be proposed in more countries to help protect human health.

Improved pediatric ICU mortality prediction for respiratory diseases: machine learning and data subdivision insights.

The growing concern of pediatric mortality demands heightened preparedness in clinical settings, especially within intensive care units (ICUs). As respiratory-related admissions account for a substantial portion of pediatric illnesses, there is a pressing need to predict ICU mortality in these cases. This study based on data from 1188 patients, addresses this imperative using machine learning techniques and investigating different class balancing methods for pediatric ICU mortality prediction. This study employs the publicly accessible "Paediatric Intensive Care database" to train, validate, and test a machine learning model for predicting pediatric patient mortality. Features were ranked using three machine learning feature selection techniques, namely Random Forest, Extra Trees, and XGBoost, resulting in the selection of 16 critical features from a total of 105 features. Ten machine learning models and ensemble techniques are used to make accurate mortality predictions. To tackle the inherent class imbalance in the dataset, we applied a unique data partitioning technique to enhance the model's alignment with the data distribution. The CatBoost machine learning model achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 72.22%, while the stacking ensemble model yielded an AUC of 60.59% for mortality prediction. The proposed subdivision technique, on the other hand, provides a significant improvement in performance metrics, with an AUC of 85.2% and an accuracy of 89.32%. These findings emphasize the potential of machine learning in enhancing pediatric mortality prediction and inform strategies for improved ICU readiness.

Cause-Specific Excess Mortality During the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020-2021) in 12 Countries of the C-MOR Consortium.

BACKGROUND: This study investigated cause-specific mortality rates in 12 countries during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021. METHODS: We collected weekly cause-specific mortality data from respiratory disease, pneumonia, cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer from national vital statistic databases. We calculated excess mortality for respiratory disease (excluding COVID-19 codes), pneumonia, and CVD in 2020 and 2021 by comparing observed weekly against expected mortality based on historical data (2015-2019), accounting for seasonal trends. We used multilevel regression models to investigate the association between country-level pandemic-related variables and cause-specific mortality. RESULTS: Significant reductions in cumulative mortality from respiratory disease and pneumonia were observed in 2020 and/or 2021, except for Georgia, Northern Ireland, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine, which exhibited excess mortality for one or both causes. Australia, Austria, Cyprus, Georgia, and Northern Ireland experienced excess cumulative CVD mortality in 2020 and/or 2021. Australia, Austria, Brazil, Cyprus, Georgia, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Slovenia, experienced increased crude cumulative cancer mortality during 2020 and/or 2021 compared to previous years. Among pandemic-related variables, reported COVID-19 incidence was negatively associated with increased cancer mortality, excess respiratory, (2020) and pneumonia (2021) mortality, and positively associated with respiratory and CVD mortality (2021). Stringency of control measures were negatively associated with excess respiratory disease, CVD, and increased cancer mortality (2021). CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence of substantial excess mortality from CVD, and notable reductions in respiratory disease and pneumonia in both years across most countries investigated. Our study also highlights the beneficial impact of stringent control measures in mitigating excess mortality from most causes in 2021.

Exposure to volatile organic compounds and mortality in US adults: A population-based prospective cohort study.

Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are ubiquitous in both indoor and outdoor environments. Evidence on the associations of individual and joint VOC exposure with all-cause and cause-specific mortality is limited. Measurements of 15 urinary VOC metabolites were available to estimate exposure to 12 VOCs in the National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey (NHANES) 2005-2006 and 2011-2018. The environment risk score (ERS) was calculated using LASSO regression to reflect joint exposure to VOCs. Follow-up data on death were obtained from the NHANES Public-Use Linked Mortality File through December 31, 2019. Cox proportional hazard models and restricted cubic spline models were applied to evaluate the associations of individual and joint VOC exposures with all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Population attributable fractions were calculated to assess the death burden attributable to VOC exposure. During a median follow-up of 6.17 years, 734 (8.34 %) deaths occurred among 8799 adults. Urinary metabolites of acrolein, acrylonitrile, 1,3-butadiene, and ethylbenzene/styrene were significantly associated with all-cause, cardiovascular disease (CVD), respiratory disease (RD), and cancer mortality in a linear dose-response manner. Linear and robust dose-response relationships were also observed between ERS and all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Each 1-unit increase in ERS was associated with a 33.6 %, 39.1 %, 109.8 %, and 67.8 % increase for all-cause, CVD, RD, and cancer mortality risk, respectively. Moreover, joint exposure to VOCs contributed to 17.95 % of all-cause deaths, 13.49 % of CVD deaths, 35.65 % of RD deaths, and 33.85 % of cancer deaths. Individual and joint exposure to VOCs may enhance the risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Reducing exposure to VOCs may alleviate the all-cause and cause-specific death burden.

Symptom burden, service use and care dissatisfaction among older adults with cancer, cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, dementia and neurological disease during the last 3 months before death: A pooled analysis of mortality follow-back surveys.

BACKGROUND: Variation in the provision of care and outcomes in the last months of life by cancer and non-cancer conditions is poorly understood. AIMS: (1) To describe patient conditions, symptom burden, practical problems, service use and dissatisfaction with end-of-life care for older adults based on the cause of death. (2) To explore factors related to these variables focussing on the causes of death. DESIGN: Secondary analysis of pooled data using cross-sectional mortality follow-back surveys from three studies: QUALYCARE; OPTCare Elderly; and International Access, Right, and Empowerment 1. SETTING/PARTICIPANTS: Data reported by bereaved relatives of people aged ⩾75 years who died of cancer, cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, dementia or neurological disease. RESULTS: The pooled dataset contained 885 responses. Overall, service use and circumstances surrounding death differed significantly across causes of death. Bereaved relatives reported symptom severity from moderate to overwhelming in over 30% of cases for all causes of death. Across all causes of death, 28%-38% of bereaved relatives reported some level of dissatisfaction with care. Patients with cardiovascular disease and dementia experienced lower symptom burden and dissatisfaction than those with cancer. The absence of a reliable key health professional was consistently associated with higher symptom burden (p = 0.002), practical problems (p = 0.001) and dissatisfaction with care (p = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: We showed different trajectories towards death depending on cause. Improving symptom burden and satisfaction in patients at the end-of-life is challenging, and the presence of a reliable key health professional may be helpful.

Cardiorespiratory Fitness as a Predictor of Non-Cardiovascular Disease and Non-Cancer Mortality in Men.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association of 5 major cause-specific non-cardiovascular disease (CVD) and non-cancer deaths with cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF). METHODS: Patients were 36,645 men (43.3±9.3 years) free of known CVD and cancer at baseline who completed a maximal treadmill graded exercise test during a preventive examination at the Cooper Clinic (Dallas, Texas) between 1971 and 2003. CRF was quantified as maximal treadmill exercise test duration and grouped as low (referent), moderate, and high. Cause-specific non-CVD non-cancer deaths were (1) diabetes or kidney disease, (2) chronic respiratory disease, (3) acute respiratory and infectious disease, (4) injuries, and (5) other non-CVD non-cancer deaths. RESULTS: A total of 694 non-CVD non-cancer deaths occurred during an average of 17 years of follow-up. After adjustment for covariates, hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for moderate and high CRF, respectively, were 0.57 (0.47 to 0.69) and 0.43 (0.34 to 0.54) for overall non-CVD non-cancer deaths (P<.0001); 0.39 (0.28 to 0.54) and 0.17 (0.10 to 0.28) for diabetes or kidney disease (P<.001); 0.36 (0.22 to 0.59) and 0.09 (0.04 to 0.20) for chronic respiratory diseases (P<.001 for all); 0.74 (0.47 to 1.16) and 0.34 (0.19 to 0.61) for acute respiratory and infectious diseases (P<.01 for both); and 0.48 (0.35 to 0.66) and 0.38 (0.26 to 0.55) for any other non-CVD non-cancer deaths (P<.0001 for both). CONCLUSION: Higher levels of CRF were significantly associated with lower risk of mortality from the 5 major non-CVD non-cancer causes. These results suggest that improvement in CRF may reduce non-CVD non-cancer deaths, which account for a significant proportion of adult mortality.

Health impact assessment of PM2.5 from uncovered coal trains in the San Francisco Bay Area: Implications for global exposures.

Coal generates almost 40% of the world's electricity with 80 countries throughout the world using coal power. An inherent part of this generation is the rail transport of coal in uncovered cars, often up to a mile long. Existing studies document the subsequent increments of PM2.5 to the near-rail populations, which typically include a large number of economically disadvantaged residents and/or people of color. However, to date there is no assessment of the health implications of this stage in the use of coal. The present study quantifies such impacts on a region in the San Francisco Bay Area. The analysis shows important effects on mortality, hospitalization for cardiovascular and respiratory disease, asthma exacerbation, work loss, and days of restricted activity. Several of these outcomes exhibited a one to six percent increase over baseline. As such, it delineates the implications for the global effects of the transport of coal.

Ultra-processed food consumption and risk of chronic respiratory diseases mortality among adults: evidence from a prospective cohort study.

PURPOSE: The purpose of the study was to determine the relationships between ultra-processed food (UPF) consumption and risk of mortality due to chronic respiratory diseases (CRDs) overall, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and lung cancer. METHODS: A total of 96,607 participants aged 55 years and over were included from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian (PLCO) cancer trial. Dietary intake was measured using food frequency questionnaire. Cox regression was fitted to estimate the risk of all-cause mortality and mortality due to CRDs overall, COPD and lung cancer associated with UPF intake. Competing risk regression was used to account for deaths from other causes and censoring. RESULTS: During the follow-up of 1,379,655.5 person-years (median 16.8 years), 28,700 all-cause, 4092 CRDs, 2015 lung cancer and 1,536 COPD mortality occurred. A higher intake of UPF increased the risk of mortality from CRDs overall by 10% (HR 1.10; 95% CI 1.01, 1.22) and COPD by 26% (HR 1.26; 95% CI 1.06, 1.49) but not associated with lung cancer mortality risk (HR 0.97; 95% CI 0.84, 1.12). However, the risk of lung cancer increased by 16% (HR 1.16; 95% CI 1.01, 1.34) in the highest UPF intake after multiple imputation. Dose-response relationships existed for CRDs and COPD mortality but not lung cancer. CONCLUSION: UPF consumption was associated with an increased risk of CRD mortality. The association between UPF consumption and lung cancer mortality is inconclusive and only significant when multiple imputation was applied.

Ambient temperature and risk of cardiovascular and respiratory adverse health outcomes: a nationwide cross-sectional study from Spain.

AIMS: We assessed the association of temperature and temperature variability with cause-specific emergency hospitalizations and mortality from cardiovascular and respiratory diseases in Spain, as well as the effect modification of this association by individual and contextual factors. METHODS AND RESULTS: We collected data on health (hospital admissions and mortality), weather (temperature and relative humidity), and relevant contextual indicators for 48 Spanish provinces during 2004-2019. The statistical analysis was separately performed for the summer (June-September) and winter (December-March) seasons. We first applied a generalized linear regression model with quasi-Poisson distribution to estimate daily province-specific temperature-health associations, and then we fitted multilevel multivariate meta-regression models to the evaluate effect modification of the contextual characteristics on heat- and cold-related risks. High temperature increased the risk of mortality across all cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, with the strongest effect for hypertension (relative risk (RR) at 99th temperature percentile vs. optimum temperature: 1.510 [95% empirical confidence interval {eCI} 1.251 to 1.821]), heart failure (1.528 [1.353 to 1.725]), and pneumonia (2.224 [1.685 to 2.936]). Heat also had an impact on all respiratory hospitalization causes (except asthma), with similar risks between pneumonia (1.288 [1.240 to 1.339]), acute bronchitis and bronchiolitis (1.307 [1.219 to 1.402]), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (1.260 [1.158 to 1.372]). We generally found significant risks related to low temperature for all cardiovascular and respiratory causes, with heart failure (RR at 1st temperature percentile vs. optimum temperature: 1.537 [1.329 to 1.779]) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (1.885 [1.646 to 2.159]) exhibiting the greatest risk for hospitalization, and acute myocardial infarction (1.860 [1.546 to 2.238]) and pneumonia (1.734 [1.219 to 2.468]) for mortality. Women and the elderly were more vulnerable to heat, while people with secondary education were less susceptible to cold compared to those not achieving this educational stage. Results from meta-regression showed that increasing heating access to the highest current provincial value (i.e. 95.6%) could reduce deaths due to cold by 59.5% (57.2 to 63.5). CONCLUSION: Exposure to low and high temperatures was associated with a greater risk of morbidity and mortality from multiple cardiovascular and respiratory conditions, and heating was the most effective societal adaptive measure to reduce cold-related mortality.

Exposure to low and high temperatures increases the risk of morbidity and mortality from several cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, especially among the elderly. Increasing access to heating could substantially reduce cold-related mortality burden.

Tendência de mortalidade prematura por doenças crônicas não transmissíveis no estado de São Paulo / Trends of premature mortality due to chronic non-communicable diseases in the state of São Paulo / Tendencia de la mortalidad prematura por enfermedades crónicas no transmisibles en el estado de São Paulo

Objetivo: analisar a tendência de óbitos prematuros relacionados às doenças crônicas não transmissíveis e sua relação com o nível de escolaridade e renda da população do estado de São Paulo. Método: estudo ecológico, utilizando dados do Departamento de Informática do Sistema Único de Saúde (DATASUS), referentes aos óbitos registrados no período de 2012 a 2019, de pessoas na faixa etária de 30 a 69 anos em decorrência de doenças cardiovasculares e respiratórias; neoplasias e diabetes mellitus. Os dados foram analisados por meio de modelo linear generalizado de distribuição binomial-negativa com função de ligação logarítmica Resultados: o coeficiente de mortalidade prematura por doenças crônicas não transmissíveis apresentou aumento, passando de 313,16 óbitos/ 100.000 habitantes no ano de 2012 para 315,08/100.000 habitantes em 2019. Conclusão: há necessidade de uma atenção especial da gestão em saúde às doenças crônicas não transmissíveis, ações para a prevenção, promoção e diagnóstico precoce, destacando-se o papel relevante dos serviços da atenção primária à saúde(AU)

Objective: to analyze the trend of premature deaths related to chronic non-communicable diseases and their relationship with the level of education and income of the population in the state of São Paulo. Method: ecological study, using data from the Department of Informatics of the Unified Health System (DATASUS), referring to deaths registered between 2012 and 2019 of people aged 30 to 69 years due to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases; neoplasms and diabetes mellitus. The data were analyzed using a generalized linear model of negative binomial distribution with a logarithmic link function. Results: the premature mortality rate due to chronic non-communicable diseases increased, from 313.16 deaths/100,000 inhabitants in 2012 to 315 .08/100,000 inhabitants in 2019. Conclusion: there is a need for special attention from health management to chronic non-communicable diseases, actions for prevention, promotion and early diagnosis, highlighting the relevant role of primary health care services(AU)

Objetivo: analizar la tendencia de muertes prematuras relacionadas con enfermedades crónicas no transmisibles y su relación con el nivel de educación y de ingresos de la población en el estado de São Paulo. Método: estudio ecológico, utilizando datos del Departamento de Informática del Sistema Único de Salud (DATASUS), relativos a muertes registradas entre 2012 y 2019 de personas de 30 a 69 años, por enfermedades cardiovasculares y respiratorias, neoplasias y diabetes mellitus. Se analizaron los datos utilizando un modelo lineal generalizado de distribución binomial negativa con una función de enlace logarítmica. Resultados: la tasa de mortalidad prematura por enfermedades crónicas no transmisibles aumentó, de 313,16 muertes/100.000 habitantes en 2012 a 315,08/100.000 habitantes en 2019. Conclusión: es necesaria una atención especial desde la gestión sanitaria a las enfermedades crónicas no transmisibles, acciones de prevención, promoción y diagnóstico temprano, destacando el papel relevante de los servicios de atención primaria de salud(AU)

[Disease burden and risk factors of chronic respiratory diseases in Jiangsu Province from 1990 to 2019].

Objective: To analyze the prevalence and the trend of the disease burden of chronic respiratory diseases and relevant risk factors in Jiangsu province from 1990 to 2019 and provide evidence for the prevention and treatment of chronic respiratory diseases. Methods: The data from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD2019) were used to calculate the prevalence rate, mortality rate and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rate. Software Joinpoint was used to calculate the annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC) of the standardized prevalence rate, standardized mortality rate and standardized DALY rate. The population attributable fractions (PAF) were used to estimate the proportion of chronic respiratory disease caused by different risk factors. Results: In 1990 and 2019, the prevalence rates of chronic respiratory diseases were 4.83% and 5.45%. The mortality rates were 134.91/100 000 and 80.99/100 000 respectively, and the DALY rates were 2 678.52/100 000 and 1 534.31/100 000 respectively. From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized prevalence rate, mortality rate and DALY rate in Jiangsu showed a significant downward trend (AAPC values were -0.90%, -5.28% and -4.70% respectively, P<0.05). Tobacco use was the leading cause of chronic respiratory diseases, followed by air pollution, occupational exposure, suboptimal temperature and high BMI. Compared with 1990, the proportion of DALYs of chronic respiratory diseases attributable to tobacco use and high BMI increased in 2019. Conclusion: The overall burden of chronic respiratory diseases in Jiangsu shows a downward trend. Prevention and health education should be focused on the population with a smoking history and high BMI. At the same time, environmental management, attention to suboptimal temperature and control of occupational exposure factors should also be adopted as important means to prevent and control chronic respiratory diseases.

The impact of heat waves on the mortality of Chinese population: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Many studies had shown that with global warming, heat waves may increase the mortality risk of Chinese populations. However, these findings are not consistent. Therefore, we elucidated the associations by meta-analysis and quantified the magnitude of these risks, as well as the underlying factors. METHODS: We searched the China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), Wanfang database, PubMed, EMBASE, and Web of Science for literature screening up to Nov 10, 2022, to analyze the effect of heat waves on mortality in the Chinese population. Literature screening and data extraction were performed independently by two researchers and the data were merged by meta-analysis. In addition, we conducted subgroup analysis by sex, age, years of education, region, and number of events to explore the source of heterogeneity. RESULTS: Fifteen related studies on the impact on heat waves of the death of Chinese people were included in this study. The results of the meta-analysis showed that heat waves were significantly associated with increased mortality from non-accidental deaths, cardiovascular diseases, stroke, respiratory diseases, and circulatory diseases in the Chinese population: non-accidental mortality (RR = 1.19, 95% CI: 1.13-1.27, P < .01), cardiovascular diseases (RR = 1.25, 95% CI: 1.14-1.38), stroke (RR = 1.11, 95% CI: 1.03-1.20), respiratory diseases (RR = 1.18, 95% CI: 1.09-1.28), and circulatory diseases (RR = 1.11, 95% CI: 1.06-1.17). Subgroup analyses showed that heat waves had a higher risk of non-accidental death for those with <6 years of education than for those with ≥6 years of education. Meta-regression analysis showed that the contribution of the study year to the inter studied heterogeneity was 50.57%. The sensitivity analysis showed that the exclusion of any single study did not materially alter the overall combined effect. The meta-analysis method indicated no obvious evidence of publication bias. CONCLUSIONS: The results of the review indicated that heat waves were associated with increased mortality in the Chinese population, that attention should be paid to high-risk groups, and that public health policies and strategies should be implemented to more effectively respond to and adapt to climate change.

Long-term exposure to elemental components of fine particulate matter and all-natural and cause-specific mortality in a Danish nationwide administrative cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is a well-recognized risk factor for premature death. However, evidence on which PM2.5 components are most relevant is unclear. METHODS: We evaluated the associations between mortality and long-term exposure to eight PM2.5 elemental components [copper (Cu), iron (Fe), zinc (Zn), sulfur (S), nickel (Ni), vanadium (V), silicon (Si), and potassium (K)]. Studied outcomes included death from diabetes, chronic kidney disease (CKD), dementia, and psychiatric disorders as well as all-natural causes, cardiovascular disease (CVD), respiratory diseases (RD), and lung cancer. We followed all residents in Denmark (aged ≥30 years) from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2017. We used European-wide land-use regression models at a 100 × 100 m scale to estimate the residential annual mean levels of exposure to PM2.5 components. The models were developed with supervised linear regression (SLR) and random forest (RF). The associations were evaluated by Cox proportional hazard models adjusting for individual- and area-level socioeconomic factors and total PM2.5 mass. RESULTS: Of 3,081,244 individuals, we observed 803,373 death from natural causes during follow-up. We found significant positive associations between all-natural mortality with Si and K from both exposure modeling approaches (hazard ratios; 95% confidence intervals per interquartile range increase): SLR-Si (1.04; 1.03-1.05), RF-Si (1.01; 1.00-1.02), SLR-K (1.03; 1.02-1.04), and RF-K (1.06; 1.05-1.07). Strong associations of K and Si were detected with most causes of mortality except CKD and K, and diabetes and Si (the strongest associations for psychiatric disorders mortality). In addition, Fe was relevant for mortality from RD, lung cancer, CKD, and psychiatric disorders; Zn with mortality from CKD, RD, and lung cancer, and; Ni and V with lung cancer mortality. CONCLUSIONS: We present novel results of the relevance of different PM2.5 components for different causes of death, with K and Si seeming to be most consistently associated with mortality in Denmark.