Review on epidemiology, disease burden, and treatment patterns of IgA nephropathy in select APAC countries.

BACKGROUND: Immunoglobulin type A (IgA) nephropathy is the most common primary glomerulonephritis (GN) worldwide with higher rates in East and Pacific Asia compared to North America and Europe. Despite high reported prevalence of IgAN in these countries, the overall disease prevalence across Asia is not available. Treatment patterns of IgAN patients across Asian countries have also not been summarized. The aim of this study was to review and summarize evidence on IgA nephropathy prevalence, treatment patterns, and humanistic and economic burden in mainland China, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and Australia. METHODS: A targeted literature review was conducted in PubMed and local databases in China (including Taiwan), South Korea, Japan, and Australia between January 2010-December 2021. Website literature searches were conducted using Google Scholar and Baidu. RESULTS: Sixty-nine publications and 3 clinical guidelines were included. Incidence ranged from 0 to 10.7 per 100 000 people per year in Australia, Japan, and Taiwan, and ranged from 6.3 to 24.70% among patients who underwent renal biopsy in mainland China. Prevalence and diagnosis rates ranged from 0 to 72.1% in mainland China, South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, and Australia. Mortality rates in mainland China, South Korea, and Japan varied widely. The top 3 commonly used therapies were angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor/angiotensin receptor blockers (0.9-99.6%), corticosteroids (3.5-100%), and immunosuppressants (1.6-85.5%) in Japan, mainland China, and South Korea. Patient quality of life was measured by different tools, and annual hospitalization costs ranged from $1 284.73 to $2 252.12 (2015-2018) in China. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of IgA nephropathy among the general population in select countries/regions is not commonly available, despite evidence from studies and clinical guidelines. In addition, it is observed across geographic regions that heterogeneity exists in prevalence rates, and large variations exist in treatment patterns. There is need to fill in these gaps to understand the contributing factors behind the differences through population-based, multi-center, and real-world studies.

Charting new frontiers in IgA nephropathy: a paradigm shift toward precision medicine and early intervention?

Advancements in glomerular transcriptomics offer a promising avenue toward precision medicine in IgA nephropathy. Traditional prognostic biomarkers, including proteinuria, blood pressure, and histomorphometry, fall short at capturing the complexity of IgA nephropathy and can only crudely guide therapeutic decisions. This issue needs to be addressed urgently as pathway-specific treatments become available. Glomerular transcriptomics, although technically challenging, offers an opportunity to refine prognostic precision and identify therapeutic targets, even when apparent risk of disease progression is low.

Personalized decision support system for tailoring IgA nephropathy treatment strategies.

BACKGROUND: The ongoing debate surrounding the use of immunosuppressive treatments for IgA nephropathy (IgAN) underscores the demand for personalized and effective strategies. METHODS: Analyzed data from 807 IgAN patients over 5+ years using three methods: Random Forest with molecular biomarkers, network biomarkers with graph engineering, and an auto-encoder model. All models were trained using identical demographic, clinical, and pathological data, employing an 80-20 split for training and testing purposes. RESULTS: In the comprehensive assessment of IgAN prognosis, the Random Forest model, employing molecular biomarkers, demonstrated strong performance metrics (AUC = 0.83, sensitivity = 0.51, specificity = 0.96). However, traditional graph feature engineering on patient-specific networks outperformed these results with an AUC of 0.90, sensitivity of 0.64, and specificity of 0.94. The Auto-encoder model showed the best accuracy (AUC = 0.91, sensitivity = 0.46, specificity = 0.96). The findings highlighted the superior predictive capabilities of network biomarkers over molecular biomarkers for adverse renal outcome prediction in IgAN. Consequently, we integrated Auto-encoder-derived Network Biomarkers with Random Forest Models to enhance prognostic precision in diverse IgAN treatment scenarios. The prediction for the prognosis of patients receiving supportive care, glucocorticoid therapy, and immunosuppressant treatment yielded AUC values of 0.95, 0.96, and 1, respectively, indicating high specificity. Drawing from these insights, we pioneered the development of an innovative decision support model for IgAN treatment. This model demonstrated the ability to make medical decisions comparable to those by experienced nephrologists, enabling the customization of personalized disease management strategies. CONCLUSION: Our system accurately predicted IgAN prognosis and evaluated various treatment efficacies, aiding physicians in devising optimal therapeutic strategies for patients.

The highlights in nephrology in 2023 / Les temps forts en néphrologie en 2023

This article aims to summarize the "Quoi de neuf en néphrologie?" session held at the 2023 SFNDT Congress in Liège and sessions focused on updates regarding IgA nephropathy (NIgA) and ANCA-associated vasculitis. The agenda for the nephrology "Quoi de neuf en néphrologie?" session this year was to review key publications from non-nephrology journals, discussing topics such as nephroprotection, treatment of glomerulopathies (IgA and APOL1), clinical trials on arterial hypertension, urinary lithiasis, and other areas of renal physiology, including glomerular filtration rate estimation.

Cet article a pour but de résumer d'une part la session « Quoi de neuf en néphrologie ? ¼ qui a eu lieu au congrès de la Société francophone de néphrologie, dialyse et transplantation (SFNDT) 2023 à Liège en Belgique, mais également les sessions portant sur les actualités de la néphropathie à IgA (NIgA) et des vascularites associées aux anticorps anticytoplasme des polynucléaires neutrophiles (ANCA). Le cahier des charges du « Quoi de neuf en néphrologie ? ¼ cette année était de reprendre les principaux articles publiés dans des revues hors néphrologie et s'est articulé sur les publications autour de la néphroprotection, du traitement des glomérulopathies (IgA et APOL1), des essais cliniques sur l'hypertension artérielle ou dans la lithiase urinaire, ou dans d'autres champs de la physiologie rénale comme l'estimation du débit de filtration glomérulaire.

A multi-center randomized controlled trial to investigate potential effects of exercise therapy on renal function stratified by renal disorders and renal pathology: beneficial or harmful effect in immunoglobulin a nephropathy.

BACKGROUND: The effects of exercise therapy (ET) on renal function in chronic kidney disease (CKD) remain unclear. METHODS: In a randomized controlled trial (UMIN-CTR number: UMIN000038415), we investigated whether ET affects renal function in CKD; eligible patients had undergone renal biopsy in the past 3 months. We stratified patients by disease (immunoglobulin A [IgA] nephropathy, n = 16; diabetic nephropathy, n = 4; benign nephrosclerosis, n = 13; and other CKD types, n = 13) and randomized them to 12 weeks' observation and 24 weeks' ET comprising home-based aerobic exercise 3×/week and resistance training 2×/week (intervention group) or usual care (non-intervention group). Primary endpoint was creatinine-based estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) or serum cystatin C-based eGFR (eGFRcys). Secondary endpoints included urinary protein and exercise tolerance. RESULTS: Seventy patients were enrolled, 50 fulfilled the inclusion criteria, but 4 discontinued before randomization. No items significantly differed between week 0 to 24 in either group (intervention group, n = 23; non-intervention group, n = 23) or between groups at week 24 (intention-to-treat population) in the total study population. The eGFRcys slope showed no significant intergroup difference in the observation period, but eGFRcys improved significantly in IgA nephropathy patients (n = 16) in the intervention group (stratified comparison; week 0, 48.3 ± 18.2; week 24, 51.6 ± 17.6; p = 0.043). In these patients, urinary protein was significantly worse at week 24 in the non-intervention group (p = 0.046) and worsened significantly less in the intervention group (p = 0.039). CONCLUSION: ET did not improve renal function overall in CKD patients but might help maintain renal function in patients with IgA nephropathy.

Points of view in nephrology: personalized management of IgA nephropathy, beyond KDIGO.

IgA nephropathy is the most common primary glomerulonephritis worldwide, and an important cause of kidney failure, as 20-40% of patients progress to renal replacement therapy 20-30 years after diagnosis. Its clinical presentation ranges from isolated microscopic hematuria to nephrotic syndrome, and even to a rapidly progressive course. Ethnicity and epigenetics play a key role in its clinical aggressiveness. Selection of patients at risk needing immunosuppressive treatment is a challenge for the nephrologist. Some active and chronic kidney lesions detected on kidney biopsy have been demonstrated to have prognostic value according to the Oxford Classification of IgA nephropathy, later validated by numerous studies. However, KDIGO 2021 guidelines still consider persistent proteinuria > 1 g/24 h to be the most relevant risk factor for the progression of IgA nephropathy and the only one requiring immunosuppressive treatment. KDIGO guidelines have proposed a therapeutic algorithm, but many patients present peculiar characteristics that are not addressed by the current guidelines, pointing to the need for alternative approaches. In these cases, a tailored approach to each patient should be followed in which clinical, histological, laboratory, social and ethical aspects must be considered. In this manuscript we present three cases of IgA nephropathy from different countries, highlighting many of the aspects encountered in clinical practice that illustrate an individualized approach to the treatment of these patients.

IgA nephropathy in children: before and after the start of COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: We describe the clinical course of children with IgA nephropathy (IgAN), diagnosed before and after the emergence of COVID-19. We hypothesized that COVID-19 vaccination and/or infection resulted in more children with IgAN to present clinically. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of children with IgAN diagnosed on kidney biopsy from 2014-2020 (Period 1) and 2021-2022 (Period 2). Baseline characteristics, clinical presentation, investigations and treatments were compared between patients diagnosed in Period 1 and Period 2, as well as between patients with and without chronic changes on kidney biopsy. Continuous variables were compared using the Wilcoxon rank sum test. Categorical variables were compared using χ2 or Fisher exact tests. RESULTS: Nineteen children with IgAN were diagnosed by kidney biopsy, with 10 during Period 1 and 9 patients during Period 2 (an average of 1-2 patients/year and 4-5 patients/year in Periods 1 and 2, respectively). The most common indication for kidney biopsy is proteinuria with urine protein/creatinine ratio 1.4 (interquartile range [IQR] 1.2-9.0) vs. 0.8 (IQR 0.6-1.5) g/g (p = 0.064) at time of kidney biopsy for patients in Period 1 and 2, respectively. Clinical course was similar in both periods. No patient required acute or chronic kidney replacement therapy. CONCLUSIONS: The rate of diagnosing children with IgAN was higher since the emergence of COVID-19, suggesting that COVID-19 may trigger an immune response responsible for IgAN, similar to other mucosal infections.

IgA vasculitis in adults, pediatrics and non-vasculitic IgA nephropathy, retrospective analysis from 2 centers.

Renal involvement represents the major long-term morbidity associated with IgA vasculitis (IgAV). Our aim was to evaluate clinical characteristics and long-term renal outcomes of IgAV in pediatrics and adults comparing to IgA nephropathy (IgAN). Our retrospective study included children and adults with IgAV and IgAN patients, admitted in a 13-year period (2007-2019) to rheumatology clinics and in hospital pediatric and internal medicine departments. We compared frequencies of clinical manifestations, laboratory findings, treatments, long-term outcomes at 1 year follow-up, including all-cause mortality and dialysis until the end of follow-up time. A total of 60 adult IgAV, 60 pediatric IgAV and 45 IgAN patients were evaluated. Adult IgAV patients were significantly older than IgAN patients (53.1 ±â€…17.4 years vs 45.1 ±â€…15.7 years respectively, P = .02) and had significantly higher rates of cardiovascular comorbidities. The risk and time to dialysis were similar among IgAN and adult IgAV groups. Yet, overall mortality at long term follow up was higher in IgAV adult group compared to IgAN. No dialysis or renal transplantation were reported in pediatric IgAV patients. IgAV and IgAN adult patients were comparable regarding risk of end stage renal disease. Of note, high mortality rates were observed among adult IgAV group.

Exploring the pathogenesis and treatment of IgA nephropathy based on epigenetics.

IgA nephropathy is the most common primary glomerulonephritis worldwide. However, its exact cause remains unclear, with known genetic factors explaining only 11% of the variation. Recently, researchers have turned their attention to epigenetic abnormalities in immune-related diseases, recognizing their significance in IgA nephropathy's development and progression. This emerging field has revolutionized our understanding of epigenetics in IgA nephropathy research. Though in its early stages, studying IgA nephropathy's epigenetics holds promise for unraveling its pathogenesis and identifying new biomarkers and therapies. This review aims to comprehensively analyze epigenetics' role in IgA nephropathy's development and suggest avenues for potential therapeutic interventions. In the future, assessing and modulating epigenetics may become integral in diagnosing, tailoring treatments and assessing prognoses for IgA nephropathy.

[Diagnosis and Treatment of IgA Nephropathy-2023]. / Diagnostik und Therapie IgA Nephropathie ­ 2023.

Immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN) is the most common glomerulonephritis. It leads to end-stage kidney disease in about a third of the patients within 10 to 20 years. The pathogenesis of IgAN is incompletely understood. It is believed that a dysregulation of the mucosal immune system leads to undergalactosylation of IgA, followed by formation of IgG autoantibodies against undergalactosylated IgA, circulation of these IgG-IgA immune complexes, deposition of the immune complexes in the mesangium, ultimately resulting in glomerular inflammation. IgAN can occasionally be triggered by other diseases, these secondary causes of IgAN should be identified or ruled out (chronic inflammatory bowel disease, infections, tumors, rheumatic diseases). Characteristic findings of IgAN of variable extent are a nephritic urinary sediment (erythrocytes, acanthocytes, erythrocyte casts), proteinuria, impaired renal function, arterial hypertension, or intermittent painless macrohematuria, especially during infections of the upper respiratory tract. However, the diagnosis of IgAN can only be made by a kidney biopsy. A histological classification (MEST­C score) should always be reported to be able to estimate the prognosis. The most important therapeutic measure is an optimization of the supportive therapy, which includes, among other things, a consistent control of the blood pressure, an inhibition of the RAS, and the administration of an SGLT2 inhibitor. A systemic immunosuppressive therapy with corticosteroids is discussed controversially, should be used restrictively and only administered after an individual benefit-risk assessment under certain conditions that speak for a progressive IgAN. New promising therapeutics are enteral Budesonide or the dual angiotensin-II-receptor- and endothelin-receptor-antagonist Sparsentan. Rapidly progressive IgAN should be treated with corticosteroids and cyclophosphamide like ANCA-associated vasculitis.

IgA nephropathy in adults-treatment standard.

Immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN) is the most common primary form of glomerular disease worldwide and carries a high lifetime risk of kidney failure. The underlying pathogenesis of IgAN has been characterized to a sub-molecular level; immune complexes containing specific O-glycoforms of IgA1 are central. Kidney biopsy remains the gold-standard diagnostic test for IgAN and histological features (i.e. MEST-C score) have also been shown to independently predict outcome. Proteinuria and blood pressure are the main modifiable risk factors for disease progression. No IgAN-specific biomarker has yet been validated for diagnosis, prognosis or tracking response to therapy. There has been a recent resurgence of investigation into IgAN treatments. Optimized supportive care with lifestyle interventions and non-immunomodulatory drugs remains the backbone of IgAN management. The menu of available reno-protective medications is rapidly expanding beyond blockade of the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system to include sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 and endothelin type A receptor antagonism. Systemic immunosuppression can further improve kidney outcomes, although recent randomized controlled trials have raised concerns regarding infectious and metabolic toxicity from systemic corticosteroids. Studies evaluating more refined approaches to immunomodulation in IgAN are ongoing: drugs targeting the mucosal immune compartment, B-cell promoting cytokines and the complement cascade are particularly promising. We review the current standards of treatment and discuss novel developments in pathophysiology, diagnosis, outcome prediction and management of IgAN.

Interventions for decreasing the risk of recurrent IgA nephropathy: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Recurrent IgA nephropathy (rIgAN) is an important cause of kidney allograft loss. Till now, no proven strategies have been confirmed to prevent/decrease the rIgAN. Here, a systematic review and meta-analysis were performed on the available interventions impacting rIgAN. PubMed, Embase, Web of sciences, ProQuest, and Cochrane library databases along with Google Scholar were searched for articles evaluating the rIgAN after kidney transplantation (up to 23 February 2023). The main inclusion criteria were kidney transplantation because of primary IgAN and articles studying the rate of the rIgAN based on different therapeutic interventions to find their effects on the disease recurrence. Based on our criteria, 11 papers were included in this systematic review, two of which pleased the criteria for the meta-analysis. Meta-analysis showed that the risk of the rIgAN in the steroid-free group was 3.33 times more than that of the steroid-receiving group (Pooled Hazard Ratio = 3.33, 95% CI 0.60 to18.33, Z-value = 1.38, p-value = 0.16). Steroid-free therapy increases the risk of rIgAN in kidney transplant recipients with primary IgAN. High-quality trials with large sample sizes studies are needed to confirm the impact of the steroids on decreasing the rate of the rIgAN.

IgA nephropathy in adults with epidermolysis bullosa.

Epidermolysis bullosa (EB) is a devastating genetic condition caused by mutations in genes that give rise to aberrant proteins. There are 16 different such proteins implicated in EB that are important in maintaining the integrity of the dermoepidermal junction. It is classified into four major subtypes: (i) EB simplex; (ii) junctional EB (JEB); (iii) dystrophic EB (DEB); and (iv) Kindler EB. Renal disease is a recognized complication of EB and the aetiology is complex. We describe our experience of managing five patients with EB and IgA nephropathy. We recommend that patients with recessive DEB and JEB routinely have the following monitored: renal function, urinary albumin/creatinine ratio, urine analysis, serum albumin levels and immunoglobulins; specifically serum IgA. Management of IgA nephropathy in the context of EB should be tailored to the individual and be carried out within a specialist multidisciplinary team. Our case series provides important insights into the treatment of IgA nephropathy in patients with EB and will help inform treatment in this rare genetic disease. Case series and reports like ours are key in gaining real-life data to quantify the actual risk of morbidity and mortality from each of the treatment modalities discussed.

Efficacy and Safety of Plasma Exchange as an Adjunctive Therapy for Rapidly Progressive IgA Nephropathy and Henoch-Schönlein Purpura Nephritis: A Systematic Review.

Patients with IgA nephropathy (IgAN), including Henoch-Schönlein purpura nephritis (HSP), who present with rapidly progressive glomerulonephritis (RPGN) have a poor prognosis despite aggressive immunosuppressive therapy. The utility of plasmapheresis/plasma exchange (PLEX) for IgAN/HSP is not well established. This systematic review aims to assess the efficacy of PLEX for IgAN and HSP patients with RPGN. A literature search was conducted using MEDLINE, EMBASE, and through Cochrane Database from inception through September 2022. Studies that reported outcomes of PLEX in IgAN or HSP patients with RPGN were enrolled. The protocol for this systematic review is registered with PROSPERO (no. CRD42022356411). The researchers systematically reviewed 38 articles (29 case reports and 9 case series articles) with a total of 102 RPGN patients (64 (62.8%) had IgAN and 38 (37.2%) had HSP). The mean age was 25 years and 69% were males. There was no specific PLEX regimen utilized in these studies, but most patients received at least 3 PLEX sessions that were titrated based on the patient's response/kidney recovery. The number of PLEX sessions ranged from 3 to 18, and patients additionally received steroids and immunosuppressive treatment (61.6% of patients received cyclophosphamide). Follow-up time ranged from 1 to 120 months, with the majority being followed for at least 2 months after PLEX. Among IgAN patients treated with PLEX, 42.1% (n = 27/64) achieved remission; 20.3% (n = 13/64) achieved complete remission (CR) and 18.7% (n = 12/64) partial remission (PR). 60.9% (n = 39/64) progressed to end-stage kidney disease (ESKD). Among HSP patients treated with PLEX, 76.3% (n = 29/38) achieved remission; of these, 68.4% (n = 26/38) achieved CR and 7.8% achieved (n = 3/38) PR. 23.6% (n = 9/38) progressed to ESKD. Among kidney transplant patients, 20% (n = 1/5) achieved remission and 80% (n = 4/5) progressed to ESKD. Adjunctive plasmapheresis/plasma exchange with immunosuppressive therapy showed benefits in some HSP patients with RPGN and possible benefits in IgAN patients with RPGN. Future prospective, multi-center, randomized clinical studies are needed to corroborate this systematic review's findings.

High-frequency plasma exchange therapy for immunocompromised, type I crescentic glomerulonephritis complicated with IgA nephropathy: A case report and literature review.

RATIONALE: Anti-glomerular basement membrane (anti-GBM) disease has been reported to coexist with other immune-mediated glomerular disorders, including antineutrophil cytoplasmic autoantibody positive glomerulonephritis and membranous glomerulopathy. It is well known that anti-GBM disease often manifests as type I crescentic glomerulonephritis on renal biopsy. However, concurrent cases of both type I crescentic glomerulonephritis and IgA nephropathy are rare. PATIENT CONCERNS: We report the case of a 40-years-old woman with microscopic hematuria, mild proteinuria and an immunocompromised status. Laboratory data revealed serum creatinine showed progressive progress, suddenly rising from the normal range to 316.2µmol/L within 4 months. The CD4 lymphocyte count was 0.274 × 109/L (reference value 0.35-1.82 × 109/L). The anti-GBM antibody titer was 192.4 IU/mL (reference range: <20 RU/mL). DIAGNOSES: Renal biopsy was performed after admission. The pathological diagnosis was type I crescentic glomerulonephritis, IgA nephropathy, and clinical anti-GBM disease. INTERVENTIONS: The patient was seriously ill on admission and progressed rapidly. Combined with poor immune function, we immediately initiated high-frequency plasma exchange (PE). In addition, to avoid rebound of antibody levels, PE was performed for 5 times. Follow-up treatment was combined with standard-dose corticosteroids and cyclophosphamide. OUTCOMES: The patient was followed up for 1 year. On the last visit, her serum creatinine decreased to 103.5µmol/L, anti-GBM antibody remained negative, and proteinuria and hematuria disappeared. LESSONS: This case illustrates that when crescentic nephritis or anti-GBM disease is combined with other immune diseases, especially when the immune function is extremely low, if the application of high-dose steroid shocks may induce fatal infections, to some extent high frequency PE has certain advantages.

Prognostic factors of IgA nephropathy presenting with mild proteinuria at the time of diagnosis (a multicenter cohort study).

BACKGROUND: Clinical factors affecting renal prognosis in patients with immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN) and low urinary protein excretion (U-Prot) remain unclear. This study evaluated such factors in patients with clinical grade I (CG-I) IgAN with U-Prot < 0.5 g/day. METHODS: This secondary analysis of a previous retrospective study included 394 patients with CG-I IgAN. The primary outcome was the first occurrence of a 1.5-fold increase in serum creatinine levels from baseline. Factors related to renal prognosis were examined using univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. CG-I was divided into C-Grade Ia (CG-Ia) (n = 330) with baseline eGFR ≥ 60 ml/min/1.73 m2, and C-Grade Ib (CG-Ib) (n = 64) with baseline eGFR < 60 ml/min/1.73 m2. Outcome incidence was compared between conservative and aggressive therapy (corticosteroids and/or tonsillectomy) groups. RESULTS: Overall outcome incidence was significantly higher in CG-Ib than in CG-Ia; the cumulative incidence was significantly higher in CG-Ib (hazard ratio, 9.67; 95% confidence interval, 2.90-32.23). Older age, higher IgA levels, eGFR < 60 mL/min/1.73 m2, lower eGFR at baseline were independent prognostic factors for CG-I. Older age, lower eGFR, higher IgA levels at baseline, and U-Prot remission at 1-year post-diagnosis were independent prognostic factors for CG-Ib. Aggressive therapy tended to suppress the cumulative outcome incidence compared with conservative therapy in CG-Ib (p = 0.087). CONCLUSION: An eGFR < 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 is a significant predictor of renal prognosis in patients with IgAN and U-Prot < 0.5 g/day.

Post-hoc analysis of a tool to predict kidney failure in patients with IgA nephropathy.

BACKGROUND: Recently, a tool based on two different artificial neural networks has been developed. The first network predicts kidney failure (KF) development while the second predicts the time frame to reach this outcome. In this study, we conducted a post-hoc analysis to evaluate the discordant results obtained by the tool. METHODS: The tool performance was analyzed in a retrospective cohort of 1116 adult IgAN patients, as were the causes of discordance between the predicted and observed cases of KF. RESULTS: There was discordance between the predicted and observed KF in 216 IgAN patients (19.35%) all of whom were elderly, hypertensive, had high serum creatinine levels, reduced renal function and moderate or severe renal lesions. Many of these patients did not receive therapy or were non-responders to therapy. In other IgAN patients the tool predicted KF but the outcome was not reached because patients responded to therapy. Therefore, in the discordant group (prediction did not match the observed outcome) the proportion of patients having or not having KF was strongly associated with treatment (P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: The post-hoc analysis shows that discordance in a low number of patients is not an error, but rather the effect of positive response to therapy. Thus, the tool could both help physicians to determine the prognosis of the disease and help patients to plan for their future.