Land use land cover change in the African Great Lakes Region: a spatial-temporal analysis and future predictions.

The African Great Lakes Region has experienced substantial land use land cover change (LULCC) over the last decades, driven by a complex interplay of various factors. However, a comprehensive analysis exploring the relationships between LULCC, and its explanatory variables remains unexplored. This study focused on the Lake Kivu catchment in Rwanda, analysing LULCC from 1990 to 2020, identifying major variables, and predicting future LULC scenarios under different development trajectories. Image classification was conducted in Google Earth Engine using random forest classifier, by incorporating seasonal composites Landsat images, spectral indices, and topographic features, to enhance discrimination and capture seasonal variations. The results demonstrated an overall accuracy exceeding 83%. Historical analysis revealed significant changes, including forest loss (26.6 to 18.7%) and agricultural land expansion (27.7 to 43%) in the 1990-2000 decade, attributed to political conflicts and population movements. Forest recovery (24.8% by 2020) was observed in subsequent decades, driven by Rwanda's sustainable development initiatives. A Multi-Layer Perceptron neural network from Land Change Modeler predicted distinct 2030 and 2050 LULC scenarios based on natural, socio-economic variables, and historical transitions. Analysis of explanatory variables highlighted the significant role of proximity to urban centers, population density, and terrain in LULCC. Predictions indicate distinct trajectories influenced by demographic and socio-economic trends. The study recommends adopting the Green Growth Economy scenario aligned with ongoing conservation measures. The findings contribute to identifying opportunities for land restoration and conservation efforts, promoting the preservation of Lake Kivu catchment's ecological integrity, in alignment with national and global goals.

Origin of the Laurentian Great Lakes fish fauna through upward adaptive radiation cascade prior to the Last Glacial Maximum.

The evolutionary histories of adaptive radiations can be marked by dramatic demographic fluctuations. However, the demographic histories of ecologically-linked co-diversifying lineages remain understudied. The Laurentian Great Lakes provide a unique system of two such radiations that are dispersed across depth gradients with a predator-prey relationship. We show that the North American Coregonus species complex ("ciscoes") radiated rapidly prior to the Last Glacial Maximum (80-90 kya), a globally warm period, followed by rapid expansion in population size. Similar patterns of demographic expansion were observed in the predator species, Lake Charr (Salvelinus namaycush), following a brief time lag, which we hypothesize was driven by predator-prey dynamics. Diversification of prey into deep water created ecological opportunities for the predators, facilitating their demographic expansion, which is consistent with an upward adaptive radiation cascade. This study provides a new timeline and environmental context for the origin of the Laurentian Great Lakes fish fauna, and firmly establishes this system as drivers of ecological diversification and rapid speciation through cyclical glaciation.

Pathways linking watershed development and riparian quality to stream water quality and fish communities: Insights from 233 subbasins of the Great Lakes region.

Anthropogenic stressors such as urban development, agricultural runoff, and riparian zone degradation impair stream water quality and biodiversity. However, the intricate pathways that connect these stressors at watershed and riparian scales to stream ecosystems-and their interplay with climate and hydrology-remain understudied. In this study, we used Partial Least Squares (PLS) path modeling to examine these pathways and their collective impacts on stream water quality and fish community structures across 233 watersheds in the Great Lakes region. Our study suggests that moderate levels of watershed development enhance overall fish richness, potentially due to increased water temperature and nutrient availability, but reduces both the percentages and richness of cold water and intolerant taxa. Riparian quality exerts indirect effects on water quality with climate and stream order serving as key mediators. Complementing our SEM analysis, we also used Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) models and identified a significant positive relationship between the proportion of clay and agricultural land with TN concentrations. However, TP concentrations are influenced by a more complex set of interactions involving developed areas, soil, and slope. These findings emphasize the necessity of adopting integrated management strategies to preserve the health and integrity of freshwater ecosystems in the Great Lakes region. These strategies should integrate watershed and riparian protection measures while also taking into account the effects of climate change and specific local conditions.

Determining the plant-pollinator network in a culturally significant food and medicine garden in the Great Lakes region.

Understanding the interactions between plants and pollinators within a system can provide information about pollination requirements and the degree to which species contribute to floral reproductive success. Past research has focused largely on interactions within monocultured agricultural systems and only somewhat on wild pollination networks. This study focuses on the culturally significant Three Sisters Garden, which has been grown and tended by many Indigenous peoples for generations in the Great Lakes Region. Here, the plant-pollinator network of the traditional Three Sisters Garden with the inclusion of some additional culturally significant plants was mapped. Important visitors in this system included the common eastern bumble bee, Bombus impatiens Cresson (Hymenoptera: Apidae), and the hoary squash bee, Xenoglossa pruinosa (Say) (Hymenoptera: Apidae), as determined by their abundances and pollinator service index (PSI) values. Understanding the key pollinators in the Three Sisters Garden links biological diversity to cultural diversity through the pollination of culturally significant plants. Further, this information could be of use in supporting Indigenous food sovereignty by providing knowledge about which wild pollinators could be supported to increase fruit and seed set within the Three Sisters Garden. Our findings can also lead to more effective conservation of important wild pollinator species.

Clovis organizational dynamics at a Late Glacial campsite in the central Great Lakes: Belson site excavations 2020-2021.

The Belson site is located on an outwash plain draining the Early Algonquin stage of the central Great Lakes (coinciding with the Older Dryas stadial period around 14,000 Cal B.P) southwest across Lower Michigan into the Ohio tributaries. By 13,000 Cal B.P the St. Joseph River had incised multiple channels into this plain. On a terrace just north of a now-abandoned channel, a detailed surface study by Talbot from 2005-2018 showed several flake clusters largely of Attica chert, procured about 235 km southwest of Belson. A study of the surface sample was published by the authors in 2021 and indicated that the points were made with the Clovis technological pattern. Excavations in 2020-21 revealed hundreds of buried flakes and multiple tools in the lower, less-disturbed terrace sediment. Plotting of this material indicates successive occupations below the ploughed deposit and covering more than 30 m2. The buried assemblages are similar to the published surface assemblage with the addition of more small scrapers and manufacturing debris. Several of the buried tools have traces of proteins from a range of mammals, suggesting a broad-spectrum subsistence strategy. The documentation of a succession of little disturbed deposits with precisely recorded micro-debris will allow for testing of models describing settlement choice and developing dynamics of internal site organization. Initial analysis of recovered data provides support for an 'outcrop centered' model where high-quality chert outcrops serve as central places on the landscape. Samples of sediment and charcoal for identification and dating await study.

The Ins and Outs of Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances in the Great Lakes: The Role of Atmospheric Deposition.

As part of the Integrated Atmospheric Deposition Network, precipitation (n = 207) and air (n = 60) from five sites and water samples (n = 87) from all five Great Lakes were collected in 2021-2023 and analyzed for 41 per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS). These measurements were combined with other available data to estimate the mass budget for four representative compounds, PFBA, PFBS, PFOS, and PFOA for the basin. The median Σ41PFAS concentrations in precipitation across the five sites ranged between 2.4 and 4.5 ng/L. The median Σ41PFAS concentration in lake water was highest in Lake Ontario (11 ng/L) and lowest in Lake Superior (1.3 ng/L). The median Σ41PFAS concentration in air samples was highest in Cleveland at 410 pg/m3 and lowest at Sleeping Bear Dunes at 146 pg/m3. The net mass transfer flows were generally negative for Lakes Superior, Michigan, and Huron and positive for Lakes Erie and Ontario, indicating that the three most northern lakes are accumulating PFAS and the other two are eliminating PFAS. Atmospheric deposition is an important source of PFAS, particularly for Lake Superior.

Spatiotemporal and multi-isotope assessment of metal sedimentation in the Great Lakes.

This study investigates spatiotemporal dynamics in metal sedimentation in the North American Great Lakes and their underlying biogeochemical controls. Bulk geochemical and isotope analyses of n = 72 surface and core sediment samples show that metal (Cu, Zn, Pb) concentrations and their isotopic compositions vary spatially across oligotrophic to mesotrophic settings, with intra-lake heterogeneity being similar or higher than inter-lake (basin-scale) variability. Concentrations of Cu, Zn, and Pb in sediments from Lake Huron and Lake Erie vary from 5 to 73 mg/kg, 18-580 mg/kg, and 5-168 mg/kg, respectively, but metal enrichment factors were small (<2) across the surface- and core sediments. The isotopic signatures of surface sediment Cu (δ65Cu between -1.19‰ and +0.96‰), Zn (δ66Zn between -0.09‰ and +0.41‰) and Pb (206/207Pb from 1.200 to 1.263) indicate predominantly lithogenic metal sourcing. In addition, temporal trends in sediment cores from Lake Huron and Lake Erie show uniform metal concentrations, minor enrichment, and Zn and Pb isotopic signatures suggestive of negligible in-lake biogeochemical fractionation. In contrast, Cu isotopic signatures and correlation to chlorophyll and macronutrient levels suggest more differentiation from source variability and/or redox-dependent fractionation, likely related to biological scavenging. Our results are used to derive baseline metal sedimentation fluxes and will help optimize water quality management and strategies for reducing metal loads and enrichment in the Great Lakes and beyond.

Polychlorinated biphenyls and incident coronary heart disease-related outcomes in Great Lakes fish consumers.

BACKGROUND: Exposure to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) has been linked to risk factors for cardiovascular disease such as increased inflammation, accelerated atherosclerosis, diabetes, and sex hormone dysregulation. Furthermore, there is increasing evidence suggesting associations between internal dose of PCBs and cardiovascular outcomes. OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study is to investigate longitudinal associations of PCBs with coronary heart disease (CHD)-related outcomes in a cohort of Great Lakes sport fish consumers. METHODS: The Great Lakes Sport Fish Consumer cohort was established in the early 1990's. Eight hundred nineteen participants were followed from 1993 to 2017. Serum PCBs were measured in 1994/1995 (baseline), in 2001, and in 2004, while health history questionnaires were administered in 1996, 2003, 2010, and 2017. Cox models were used to prospectively investigate associations of total PCBs and PCB groupings, based on aryl hydrocarbon receptor activity, with incident self-reported physician diagnosis of coronary heart disease (CHD), myocardial infarction (MI), and angina pectoris. RESULTS: A 2-fold increase in phenobarbital-type PCBs was associated with a 72% increase in likelihood of self-reported incident diagnosis of CHD (HR=1.72, 95% CI: 1.06-2.81; p=0.0294). Similar results were observed for total PCBs (HR=1.68, 95% CI: 1.05-2.69; p=0.0306) and mixed methacholine/phenobarbital type (mixed-type) PCBs (HR=1.60, 95% CI: 1.02-2.52; p=0.0427), but not methacholine-type PCBs. PCBs were not strongly associated with risk of MI or angina. CONCLUSIONS: This study presents evidence that exposure to PCBs increases the risk of developing coronary heart disease. Given the large number of risk factors and causal pathways for CHD, future research is required to better understand biological mechanisms of action for PCBs on CHD.

Fostering effective and sustainable scientific collaboration and knowledge exchange: a workshop-based approach to establish a national ecological observatory network (NEON) domain-specific user group.

The decision to establish a network of researchers centers on identifying shared research goals. Ecologically specific regions, such as the USA's National Ecological Observatory Network's (NEON's) eco-climatic domains, are ideal locations by which to assemble researchers with a diverse range of expertise but focused on the same set of ecological challenges. The recently established Great Lakes User Group (GLUG) is NEON's first domain specific ensemble of researchers, whose goal is to address scientific and technical issues specific to the Great Lakes Domain 5 (D05) by using NEON data to enable advancement of ecosystem science. Here, we report on GLUG's kick off workshop, which comprised lightning talks, keynote presentations, breakout brainstorming sessions and field site visits. Together, these activities created an environment to foster and strengthen GLUG and NEON user engagement. The tangible outcomes of the workshop exceeded initial expectations and include plans for (i) two journal articles (in addition to this one), (ii) two potential funding proposals, (iii) an assignable assets request and (iv) development of classroom activities using NEON datasets. The success of this 2.5-day event was due to a combination of factors, including establishment of clear objectives, adopting engaging activities and providing opportunities for active participation and inclusive collaboration with diverse participants. Given the success of this approach we encourage others, wanting to organize similar groups of researchers, to adopt the workshop framework presented here which will strengthen existing collaborations and foster new ones, together with raising greater awareness and promotion of use of NEON datasets. Establishing domain specific user groups will help bridge the scale gap between site level data collection and addressing regional and larger ecological challenges.

Temporal Trends of Great Lakes Legacy Contaminants: Ecological and Biological Considerations Applying the Age-Trend Model.

The USEPA Great Lakes Fish Monitoring and Surveillance Program (GLFMSP) has been monitoring top predator lake trout and walleye contaminant concentrations since the early 1970s. Our research revealed that select legacy contaminant groups (∑PCBs, ∑DDTs, ∑chlordanes, and ∑5PBDEs) have similar t1/2 and k2 values across the Great Lakes, with the exception of both Lake Erie sites and the Lake Superior─Keweenaw Point site. The slower halving times determined at both Lake Erie sites are consistent with legacy contaminant remobilization due to extreme weather climate effects and past remedial actions on the Detroit River, whereas the Lake Superior─Keweenaw Point site demonstrates contaminant halving times approaching the exponential minimum. Overall, Great Lakes select contaminant groupings have decreased between 25.8 and 97.9% since 2004. An age-normalized Great Lakes Contaminant Index (GLCI) was devised, indicating both Lake Michigan sites as the most highly impacted. The mean absolute deviation statistic was applied, documenting the need to age-correct contaminant trends due to highly variable age profiles. With the noted exceptions, the uniformity of age-corrected trend modeling suggests that a combination of the fundamental biological and physicochemical mechanisms of natural contaminant sequestration, declining dissolved water concentrations, accumulation/metabolism/depuration, and the overall reduction of legacy contaminant loading are driving the generally consistent rates of declines in the Great Lakes. Many of the biological and ecological stressors currently associated with climate change appear to be accounted for by the age-trend model.

Decadal-scale variability and warming affect spring timing and forest growth across the western Great Lakes region.

The Great Lakes region of North America has warmed by 1-2 °C on average since pre-industrial times, with the most pronounced changes observable during winter and spring. Interannual variability in temperatures remains high, however, due to the influence of ocean-atmosphere circulation patterns that modulate the warming trend across years. Variations in spring temperatures determine growing season length and plant phenology, with implications for whole ecosystem function. Studying how both internal climate variability and the "secular" warming trend interact to produce trends in temperature is necessary to estimate potential ecological responses to future warming scenarios. This study examines how external anthropogenic forcing and decadal-scale variability influence spring temperatures across the western Great Lakes region and estimates the sensitivity of regional forests to temperature using long-term growth records from tree-rings and satellite data. Using a modeling approach designed to test for regime shifts in dynamic time series, this work shows that mid-continent spring climatology was strongly influenced by the 1976/1977 phase change in North Pacific atmospheric circulation, and that regional forests show a strengthening response to spring temperatures during the last half-century.

Measuring culturally and contextually specific distress among Afghan, Iraqi, and Great Lakes African refugees.

Culturally and contextually valid measurement of psychological distress is critical, given the increasing numbers of forcibly displaced people and transnational migration. This study replicates an inductive process that elicited culturally specific expressions, understandings, and idioms of distress among Afghans to develop culturally specific measures of distress for Great Lakes Africans and Iraqis and expands this methodology to include a focus on the contexts of refugees resettled in the United States. To create the measures, we adapted Miller et al.'s (2006) model for the Afghan Symptom Checklist (ASCL) and conducted 18 semistructured qualitative interviews that attended to refugees' multiple settings; the impact of potentially traumatic events initially and postresettlement; and the experiences and impact of resettlement stressors. We tested the newly developed measures and existing ASCL with 280 recently resettled refugees (< 3 years) from Afghanistan, the Great Lakes region of Africa, and Iraq to assess factor structure, reliability, and construct validity. We successfully replicated and adapted a process for creating culturally specific measures of distress to create reliable and valid scales that consider culturally and contextually specific distress among several groups of forcibly displaced people. Our results highlight the salience of individuals' social contexts and how they are manifested as idioms of distress, bringing together two key areas of research: the social construction of mental health and social determinants of mental health. These findings have implications for improving measurement of psychological distress and for developing multilevel interventions that are culturally resonant and address factors beyond the individual level. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Legacy contaminant trends in the Great Lakes uncovered by the wildlife environmental quality index.

Since the 1970s, wildlife managers have prioritized the recovery of Great Lakes ecosystems from contamination by Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs). Monitoring and quantifying the region's recovery is challenged by the diversity of legacy contaminants in the environment and the lack of benchmarks for their potential biological effects. We address this gap by introducing the Wildlife Environmental Quality Index (WEQI) based on prior water and sediment quality indices. The tool summarizes, in a single score, the exposure of wildlife to harmful levels of multiple contaminants - with harmful levels set by published guidelines for protecting piscivorous wildlife from biological impacts. We applied the new index to a combined Canadian and American dataset of Herring Gull (Larus argentatus) egg data to elucidate trends in wildlife for eight legacy industrial pollutants and insecticides in the Great Lakes. Environmental quality of the Great Lakes region (as indexed by WEQI) improved by 18% between 2002 and 2017. Improvement came from reductions in both the scope of contamination (the number of guideline-exceeding contaminants) and its amplitude (the average size of guideline exceedances) at bird colonies. But recovery was unequal among lakes, with Lake Erie showing no improvement at one extreme. Weakly- or non-recovering lakes (Erie, Ontario, Huron) were marked by inconsistent improvement in scope and amplitude, likely due to ongoing loading, sediment resuspension and other stressors reported elsewhere. Fast-recovering lakes (Superior and Michigan), meanwhile, improved in both scope and amplitude. Contrasting trends and contaminant profiles (e.g., exceedances of PCBs versus DDTs) highlight the importance of lake-specific management for equalizing recoveries. Lower environmental quality at American than Canadian colonies, particularly in Lake Huron, further suggest uneven success in - and opportunities for - the binational management of wildlife exposure to legacy contaminants.

Habitat selection of resident and non-resident gray wolves: implications for habitat connectivity.

Habitat selection studies facilitate assessing and predicting species distributions and habitat connectivity, but habitat selection can vary temporally and among individuals, which is often ignored. We used GPS telemetry data from 96 Gray wolves (Canis lupus) in the western Great Lakes region of the USA to assess differences in habitat selection while wolves exhibited resident (territorial) or non-resident (dispersing or floating) movements and discuss implications for habitat connectivity. We used a step-selection function (SSF) to assess habitat selection by wolves exhibiting resident or non-resident movements, and modeled circuit connectivity throughout the western Great Lakes region. Wolves selected for natural land cover and against areas with high road densities, with no differences in selection among wolves when resident, dispersing, or floating. Similar habitat selection between resident and non-resident wolves may be due to similarity in environmental conditions, when non-resident movements occur largely within established wolf range rather than near the periphery or beyond the species range. Alternatively, non-resident wolves may travel through occupied territories because higher food availability or lower human disturbance outweighs risks posed by conspecifics. Finally, an absence of differences in habitat selection between resident and non-resident wolf movements may be due to other unknown reasons. We recommend considering context-dependency when evaluating differences in movements and habitat use between resident and non-resident individuals. Our results also provide independent validation of a previous species distribution model and connectivity analysis suggesting most potential wolf habitat in the western Great Lakes region is occupied, with limited connectivity to unoccupied habitat.

Assessing Contaminants of Emerging Concern in the Great Lakes Ecosystem: A Decade of Method Development and Practical Application.

Assessing the ecological risk of contaminants in the field typically involves consideration of a complex mixture of compounds which may or may not be detected via instrumental analyses. Further, there are insufficient data to predict the potential biological effects of many detected compounds, leading to their being characterized as contaminants of emerging concern (CECs). Over the past several years, advances in chemistry, toxicology, and bioinformatics have resulted in a variety of concepts and tools that can enhance the pragmatic assessment of the ecological risk of CECs. The present Focus article describes a 10+- year multiagency effort supported through the U.S. Great Lakes Restoration Initiative to assess the occurrence and implications of CECs in the North American Great Lakes. State-of-the-science methods and models were used to evaluate more than 700 sites in about approximately 200 tributaries across lakes Ontario, Erie, Huron, Michigan, and Superior, sometimes on multiple occasions. Studies featured measurement of up to 500 different target analytes in different environmental matrices, coupled with evaluation of biological effects in resident species, animals from in situ and laboratory exposures, and in vitro systems. Experimental taxa included birds, fish, and a variety of invertebrates, and measured endpoints ranged from molecular to apical responses. Data were integrated and evaluated using a diversity of curated knowledgebases and models with the goal of producing actionable insights for risk assessors and managers charged with evaluating and mitigating the effects of CECs in the Great Lakes. This overview is based on research and data captured in approximately about 90 peer-reviewed journal articles and reports, including approximately about 30 appearing in a virtual issue comprised of highlighted papers published in Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry or Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management. Environ Toxicol Chem 2023;42:2506-2518. © 2023 SETAC. This article has been contributed to by U.S. Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

Evaluating the trophic transfer of PCBs from fish to humans: Insights from a synergism of environmental monitoring and physiologically-based pharmacokinetic modeling.

Accumulation of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) within fish tissues has prompted many states to issue consumption advisories. In Pennsylvania such advisories suggest one meal per month for most game species harvested from Lake Erie; however, these advisories do not account for the emergent properties of regional PCB mixtures, and the downstream accumulation of PCB congeners into human tissues is poorly documented. This study aimed to demonstrate the utility of pairing environmental monitoring with pharmacokinetic modeling for the purpose of estimating dietary PCB exposure in humans. We qualified and quantified the PCB congeners present in the filets of five Lake Erie fish species and used these data to estimate exposure under consumption scenarios that matched or exceeded the advisories. Physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling was then employed to predict PCB accumulation within seven tissue compartments of a hypothetical man and woman over 10 years. Twenty-one congeners were detected between the five fish species at concentrations ranging from 56.0 to 411.7 ng/g. Predicted accumulation in human tissues varied based on tissue type, the species consumed, biological sex, and fish-consumption rate. Notably, steady-state concentrations were higher in fatty tissue compartments ("Fat" and "Liver") and across all tissues in women compared to men. This study serves as a preliminary blueprint for generating predictions of site-specific and tissue-specific exposure through the integration of environmental monitoring and pharmacokinetic modeling. Although the details may vary across applications, this simple approach could complement traditional exposure assessments for vulnerable communities in the Great Lakes region that continue to suffer from legacy contamination.

Anglers as potential vectors of aquatic invasive species: Linking inland water bodies in the Great Lakes region of the US.

Unimpeded transfer and spread of invasive species throughout freshwater systems is of global concern, altering species compositions, disrupting ecosystem processes, and diverting economic resources. The magnitude and complexity of the problem is amplified by the global connectedness of human movements and the multiple modes of inter-basin transport of aquatic invasive species. Our objective was to trace the fishing behavior of anglers delineating potential pathways of transfer of invasive species throughout the vast inland waters of the Great Lakes of North America, which contain more than 21% of the world's surface freshwater and are among the most highly invaded aquatic ecosystems in the world. Combining a comprehensive survey and a spatial analysis of the movements of thousands of anglers in 12 states within the US portion of the Great Lakes Basin and the Upper Mississippi and Ohio River Basins, we estimated that 6.5 million licensed anglers in the study area embarked on an average of 30 fishing trips over the course of the year, and 70% of the individuals fished in more than one county. Geospatial linkages showed direct connections made by individuals traveling between 99% of the 894 counties where fishing occurred, and between 61 of the 66 sub-watersheds in a year. Estimated numbers of fishing trips to individual counties ranged from 1199-1.95 million; generally highest in counties bordering the Great Lakes. Of these, 79 had more than 10,000 estimated fishing trips originating from anglers living in other counties. Although angler movements are one mechanism of invasive species transfer, there likely is a high cumulative probability of invasive species transport by several million people fishing each year throughout this extensive freshwater network. A comprehensive georeferenced survey, coupled with a spatial analysis of fishing destinations, provides a potentially powerful tool to track, predict, curtail and control the transfer and proliferation of invasive species in freshwater.

A thirty-year contaminant trend analysis in great lakes Native American fish harvests 1991-2021.

The Chippewa Ottawa Resource Authority (CORA) in Sault Ste. Marie, Michigan has been monitoring contaminant concentrations of mercury (Hg) and polychorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in the fillet portions of lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) and lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformus) from waters of lakes Superior, Huron, and Michigan since 1991. This contaminant monitoring program is essential to supporting the fisheries interests and consumption advice for five Ojibwa and Ottawa tribes (collectively called Anishinaabe) whose ancestors ceded lands through the 1836 Treaty of Washingtonbut retained the rights to hunt and fish on those lands and waters. This manuscript presents an updated contaminant trend analysis covering the past three decades in which we observed a significant decreasing trend of median PCBs in both whitefish and lake trout harvested by tribal fishermen across all lakes. Median Hg tissue burdens significantly increased in whitefish harvests across all lakes and lake trout harvested from lake Michigan relative to earlier decades. Linear regression of fish fillets, adjusted for length, also conform to these trends. In 2021, per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) were detected in all Lake Michigan samples of lake trout (median 6.81pbb total PFAS) and in white fish (median 7.18 ppb total PFAS). Both decreasing and increasing trends of these key contaminants can alter fish consumption advice and risk calculations relative to advice presented in earlier decades.

Declining life expectancy in the Great Lakes region: contributors to Black and white longevity change across educational attainment.

BACKGROUND: The East North Central Census division (aka the Great Lakes region) experienced a decrease in life expectancy of 0.3 years from 2014 to 2016 - one of the largest declines across the nine Census divisions. Disadvantaged groups that typically have below-average life expectancy, including Black individuals and those without a college education, may have been disproportionately affected by this longevity shift. This investigation examines life expectancy changes among different sex, race, and education groups in the Great Lakes region, and how specific causes of death contributed to within-group longevity changes over time and across age. METHODS: We used 2008 to 2017 death counts from the National Center for Health Statistics and American Community Survey population estimates to measure within-group change in life expectancy at age 25 among non-Hispanic Black and white males and females by educational attainment. We decomposed life expectancy change over time for each subgroup by 24 causes of death and measured their contribution to longevity change across 13 age groups. RESULTS: Among persons with ≤ 12 years of education, white males and females experienced 1.3- and 1.7-year longevity declines respectively, compared to a 0.6-year decline among Black males and a 0.3-year decline among Black females. Life expectancy declined among all groups with 13-15 years of education, but especially Black females, who experienced a 2.2-year loss. With the exception of Black males, all groups with 16 + years of education experienced longevity gains. Homicide contributed 0.34 years to longevity decline among Black males with ≤ 12 years of education. Drug poisoning made large contributions to longevity losses among Black females with ≤ 12 years of education (0.31 years), white males and females with 13-15 years of education (0.35 and 0.21 years, respectively), and white males and females with ≤ 12 years of education (0.92 and 0.65 years, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Public health efforts to reduce the risks of homicide among Black males without a college education and drug poisoning among all groups could improve life expectancy and reduce racial and educational longevity disparities in the Great Lakes region.

On the probability of ecological risks from microplastics in the Laurentian Great lakes.

The Laurentian Great Lakes represent important and iconic ecosystems. Microplastic pollution has become a major problem among other anthropogenic stressors in these lakes. There is a need for policy development, however, assessing the risks of microplastics is complicated due to the uncertainty and poor quality of the data and incompatibility of exposure and effect data for microplastics with different properties. Here we provide a prospective probabilistic risk assessment for Great Lakes sediments and surface waters that corrects for the misalignment between exposure and effect data, accounts for variability due to sample volume when using trawl samples, for the random spatiotemporal variability of exposure data, for uncertainty in data quality (QA/QC), in the slope of the power law used to rescale the data, and in the HC5 threshold effect concentration obtained from Species Sensitivity Distributions (SSDs). We rank the lakes in order of the increasing likelihood of risks from microplastics, for pelagic and benthic exposures. A lake-wide risk, i.e. where each location exceeds the risk limit, is not found for any of the lakes. However, the probability of a risk from food dilution occurring in parts of the lakes is 13-15% of the benthic exposures in Lakes Erie and Huron, and 8.3-10.3% of the pelagic exposures in Lake Michigan, Lake Huron, Lake Superior, and Lake Erie, and 24% of the pelagic exposures in Lake Ontario. To reduce the identified uncertainties, we recommend that future research focuses on characterizing and quantifying environmentally relevant microplastic (ERMP) over a wider size range (ideally 1-5000 µm) so that probability density functions (PDFs) can be better calibrated for different habitats. Toxicity effect testing should use a similarly wide range of sizes and other ERMP characteristics so that complex data alignments can be minimized and assumptions regarding ecologically relevant dose metrics (ERMs) can be validated.