A conceptual health state diagram for modelling the transmission of a (re)emerging infectious respiratory disease in a human population.

Mathematical modelling of (re)emerging infectious respiratory diseases among humans poses multiple challenges for modellers, which can arise as a result of limited data and surveillance, uncertainty in the natural history of the disease, as well as public health and individual responses to outbreaks. Here, we propose a COVID-19-inspired health state diagram (HSD) to serve as a foundational framework for conceptualising the modelling process for (re)emerging respiratory diseases, and public health responses, in the early stages of their emergence. The HSD aims to serve as a starting point for reflection on the structure and parameterisation of a transmission model to assess the impact of the (re)emerging disease and the capacity of public health interventions to control transmission. We also explore the adaptability of the HSD to different (re)emerging diseases using the characteristics of three respiratory diseases of historical public health importance. We outline key questions to contemplate when applying and adapting this HSD to (re)emerging infectious diseases and provide reflections on adapting the framework for public health-related interventions.

Assessing the impact of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions and relaxation policies on Class B respiratory infectious diseases transmission in China.

This study investigates the incidence of Class B respiratory infectious diseases (RIDs) in China under the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic and examines variations post-epidemic, following the relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Two-stage evaluation was used in our study. In the first stage evaluation, we established counterfactual models for the pre-COVID-19 period to estimate expected incidences of Class B RIDs without the onset of the epidemic. In the second stage evaluation, we constructed seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average intervention (SARIMA-Intervention) models to evaluate the impact on the Class B RIDs after NPIs aimed at COVID-19 pandemic were relaxed. The counterfactual model in the first stage evaluation suggested average annual increases of 10.015%, 78.019%, 70.439%, and 67.799% for tuberculosis, scarlet fever, measles, and pertussis respectively, had the epidemic not occurred. In the second stage evaluation, the total relative reduction in 2023 of tuberculosis, scarlet fever, measles and pertussis were - 35.209%, - 59.184%, - 4.481%, and - 9.943% respectively. The actual incidence declined significantly in the first stage evaluation. However, the results of the second stage evaluation indicated that a rebound occurred in four Class B RIDs after the relaxation of NPIs; all of these showed a negative total relative reduction rate.

Forecasting Disease Burden with a Dynamic Transmission Model of Human Papillomavirus and Recurrent Respiratory Papillomatosis in the United States.

Juvenile- and adult-onset recurrent respiratory papillomatosis (JORRP and AORRP) are rare but serious conditions that are caused by oral human papillomavirus (HPV) infections. The proliferation of wart-like growths throughout the respiratory tract can result in medical problems, including death. The current treatment scheme is surgery, though prevention of HPV infection through vaccination is available. A previously developed model for JORRP and AORRP was adapted to the United States using data on disease burden and HPV infection. The model was validated against post-vaccination reductions in disease and used to forecast the future burden of JORRP and AORRP, estimating the impact that HPV vaccination will have on these diseases. Between 2007 (the beginning of HPV vaccination in the US) and 2021, this model estimates that approximately 1393 lives, 22,867 Quality-Adjusted-Life-Years, and over USD 672 million in treatment costs have been saved by HPV vaccination. There is also a substantial reduction in JORRP and AORRP burden, with a 95% reduction in incidence by 2040. Moreover, between 2040 and 2121, the model predicts 3-11 total cases of HPV6/11-related JORRP in the US, and 36-267 total cases of HPV6/11-related AORRP. HPV vaccination in the United States has driven, and will continue to drive, substantial reductions in the public health and economic burden of HPV6/11-related JORRP and AORRP.

Repetition in social contacts: implications in modelling the transmission of respiratory infectious diseases in pre-pandemic and pandemic settings.

The spread of viral respiratory infections is intricately linked to human interactions, and this relationship can be characterized and modelled using social contact data. However, many analyses tend to overlook the recurrent nature of these contacts. To bridge this gap, we undertake the task of describing individuals' contact patterns over time by characterizing the interactions made with distinct individuals during a week. Moreover, we gauge the implications of this temporal reconstruction on disease transmission by juxtaposing it with the assumption of random mixing over time. This involves the development of an age-structured individual-based model, using social contact data from a pre-pandemic scenario (the POLYMOD study) and a pandemic setting (the Belgian CoMix study), respectively. We found that accounting for the frequency of contacts impacts the number of new, distinct, contacts, revealing a lower total count than a naive approach, where contact repetition is neglected. As a consequence, failing to account for the repetition of contacts can result in an underestimation of the transmission probability given a contact, potentially leading to inaccurate conclusions when using mathematical models for disease control. We, therefore, underscore the necessity of acknowledging contact repetition when formulating effective public health strategies.

Upper respiratory Streptococcus pneumoniae colonization among working-age adults with prevalent exposure to overcrowding.

Most pneumococcal disease occurs among infants and older adults and is thought to be driven by the transmission of Streptococcus pneumoniae from young children to these vulnerable age groups. However, pneumococcal disease outbreaks also affect non-elderly adults living or working in congregate, close-contact settings. Little is known about pneumococcal carriage in such populations. From July to November 2020, we collected saliva from low-income adult farmworkers in Monterey County, California, and tested for pneumococcal carriage following culture enrichment via quantitative PCR assays targeting the pneumococcal lytA and piaB genes. Participants were considered to carry pneumococci if lytA and piaB cycle threshold values were both below 40. Among 1,283 participants enrolled in our study, 117 (9.1%) carried pneumococci. Carriers tended more often than non-carriers to be exposed to children aged <5 years [odds ratio (OR) = 1.45 (0.95-2.20)] and overcrowding [OR = 1.48 (0.96-2.30) and 2.84 (1.20-6.73), respectively, for participants in households with >2-4 and >4 persons per bedroom vs ≤2 persons per bedroom]. Household overcrowding remained associated with increased risk of carriage among participants not exposed to children aged <5 years [OR = 2.05 (1.18-3.59) for participants living in households with >2 vs ≤2 persons per bedroom]. Exposure to children aged <5 years and overcrowding were each associated with increased pneumococcal density among carriers [piaB cT difference of 2.04 (0.36-3.73) and 2.44 (0.80-4.11), respectively]. While exposure to young children was a predictor of pneumococcal carriage, associations of overcrowding with increased prevalence and density of carriage in households without young children suggest that transmission also occurs among adults in close-contact settings.IMPORTANCEAlthough infants and older adults are the groups most commonly affected by pneumococcal disease, outbreaks are known to occur among healthy, working-age populations exposed to overcrowding, including miners, shipyard workers, military recruits, and prisoners. Carriage of Streptococcus pneumoniae is the precursor to pneumococcal disease, and its relation to overcrowding in adult populations is poorly understood. We used molecular methods to characterize pneumococcal carriage in culture-enriched saliva samples from low-income adult farmworkers in Monterey County, CA. While exposure to children in the household was an important risk factor for pneumococcal carriage, living in an overcrowded household without young children was an independent predictor of carriage as well. Moreover, participants exposed to children or overcrowding carried pneumococci at higher density than those without such exposures, suggesting recent transmission. Our findings suggest that, in addition to transmission from young children, pneumococcal transmission may occur independently among adults in overcrowded settings.

Effects of coronavirus disease 2019 on the spread of respiratory-transmitted human-to-human bacteria.

OBJECTIVES: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has necessitated significant changes in medical systems, social behaviours, and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). We aimed to determine the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on changes in the epidemiology of respiratory-transmitted bacteria that have been unexplored. METHODS: We utilised a comprehensive national surveillance database from 2018 to 2021 to compare monthly number of patients with four respiratory-transmitted human-to-human bacteria (Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, Moraxella catarrhalis, and Streptococcus pyogenes) before and after the COVID-19 pandemic, stratified by specimen sources and age groups. RESULTS: The incidence of detected patients with S. pneumoniae, H. influenzae, and S. pyogenes from both respiratory and blood cultures significantly decreased from 2019 to 2020. In 2021, the incidence of detected patients with the respiratory-transmitted bacterial species, except for S. pyogenes, from respiratory cultures, increased again from April to July, primarily affecting the 0-4-year age group. CONCLUSIONS: Our comprehensive national surveillance data analysis demonstrates the dynamic changes and effects of NPIs on respiratory-transmitted bacteria during the COVID-19 pandemic, with variations observed among species, specimen sources, and age groups.

Reducing Transmission of Airborne Respiratory Pathogens: A New Beginning as the COVID-19 Emergency Ends.

BACKGROUND: In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, new evidence-based strategies have emerged for reducing transmission of respiratory infections through management of indoor air. OBJECTIVES: This paper reviews critical advances that could reduce the burden of disease from inhaled pathogens and describes challenges in their implementation. DISCUSSION: Proven strategies include assuring sufficient ventilation, air cleaning by filtration, and air disinfection by germicidal ultraviolet (UV) light. Layered intervention strategies are needed to maximize risk reduction. Case studies demonstrate how to implement these tools while also revealing barriers to implementation. Future needs include standards designed with infection resilience and equity in mind, buildings optimized for infection resilience among other drivers, new approaches and technologies to improve ventilation, scientific consensus on the amount of ventilation needed to achieve a desired level of risk, methods for evaluating new air-cleaning technologies, studies of their long-term health effects, workforce training on ventilation systems, easier access to federal funds, demonstration projects in schools, and communication with the public about the importance of indoor air quality and actions people can take to improve it. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP13878.

Alert for pharynx-centered gastrointestinal and respiratory cross-infection and cryptic cross-transmission routes of 2019-nCoV.

We proposed that the pharynx, as a common organ of the respiratory and digestive tracts, may be a respiratory and digestive tract cross cryptic transmission pathway for 2019-nCoV infection from the nasal cavities to the pharynx and lung, then to nasal cavities by aerosol (respiratory route) to the pharynx and the gastrointestinal tract, then to the oral cavity by feces (fecal-oral route) and to pharynx, lungs, or gastrointestinal tract.

Evaluating Seasonal Variations in Human Contact Patterns and Their Impact on the Transmission of Respiratory Infectious Diseases.

BACKGROUND: Human contact patterns are a key determinant driving the spread of respiratory infectious diseases. However, the relationship between contact patterns and seasonality as well as their possible association with the seasonality of respiratory diseases is yet to be clarified. METHODS: We investigated the association between temperature and human contact patterns using data collected through a cross-sectional diary-based contact survey in Shanghai, China, between December 24, 2017, and May 30, 2018. We then developed a compartmental model of influenza transmission informed by the derived seasonal trends in the number of contacts and validated it against A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza data collected in Shanghai during the same period. RESULTS: We identified a significant inverse relationship between the number of contacts and the seasonal temperature trend defined as a spline interpolation of temperature data (p = 0.003). We estimated an average of 16.4 (95% PrI: 15.1-17.5) contacts per day in December 2017 that increased to an average of 17.6 contacts (95% PrI: 16.5-19.3) in January 2018 and then declined to an average of 10.3 (95% PrI: 9.4-10.8) in May 2018. Estimates of influenza incidence obtained by the compartmental model comply with the observed epidemiological data. The reproduction number was estimated to increase from 1.24 (95% CI: 1.21-1.27) in December to a peak of 1.34 (95% CI: 1.31-1.37) in January. The estimated median infection attack rate at the end of the season was 27.4% (95% CI: 23.7-30.5%). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings support a relationship between temperature and contact patterns, which can contribute to deepen the understanding of the relationship between social interactions and the epidemiology of respiratory infectious diseases.

Household transmission of human metapneumovirus and seasonal coronavirus.

We analyzed data from a community-based acute respiratory illness study involving K-12 students and their families in southcentral Wisconsin and assessed household transmission of two common seasonal respiratory viruses - human metapneumovirus (HMPV) and human coronaviruses OC43 and HKU1 (HCOV). We found secondary infection rates of 12.2% (95% CI: 8.1%-17.4%) and 19.2% (95% CI: 13.8%-25.7%) for HMPV and HCOV, respectively. We performed individual- and family-level regression models and found that HMPV transmission was positively associated age of the index case (individual model: p = .016; family model: p = .004) and HCOV transmission was positively associated with household density (family model: p = .048). We also found that the age of the non-index case was negatively associated with transmission of both HMPV (individual model: p = .049) and HCOV (individual model: p = .041), but we attributed this to selection bias from the original study design. Understanding household transmission of common respiratory viruses like HMPV and HCOV may help to broaden our understanding of the overall disease burden and establish methods to prevent the spread of disease from low- to high-risk populations.

Masks and respirators for prevention of respiratory infections: a state of the science review.

SUMMARYThis narrative review and meta-analysis summarizes a broad evidence base on the benefits-and also the practicalities, disbenefits, harms and personal, sociocultural and environmental impacts-of masks and masking. Our synthesis of evidence from over 100 published reviews and selected primary studies, including re-analyzing contested meta-analyses of key clinical trials, produced seven key findings. First, there is strong and consistent evidence for airborne transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and other respiratory pathogens. Second, masks are, if correctly and consistently worn, effective in reducing transmission of respiratory diseases and show a dose-response effect. Third, respirators are significantly more effective than medical or cloth masks. Fourth, mask mandates are, overall, effective in reducing community transmission of respiratory pathogens. Fifth, masks are important sociocultural symbols; non-adherence to masking is sometimes linked to political and ideological beliefs and to widely circulated mis- or disinformation. Sixth, while there is much evidence that masks are not generally harmful to the general population, masking may be relatively contraindicated in individuals with certain medical conditions, who may require exemption. Furthermore, certain groups (notably D/deaf people) are disadvantaged when others are masked. Finally, there are risks to the environment from single-use masks and respirators. We propose an agenda for future research, including improved characterization of the situations in which masking should be recommended or mandated; attention to comfort and acceptability; generalized and disability-focused communication support in settings where masks are worn; and development and testing of novel materials and designs for improved filtration, breathability, and environmental impact.

Household Transmission and Clinical Features of Respiratory Tract Infections That Were SARS-CoV-2 Positive and Negative.

BACKGROUND: Comparative data are limited on the transmission of respiratory infections positive and negative for SARS-CoV-2 in households with children. METHODS: In June to August 2020, we recruited 700 participants (175 households, 376 children, 324 adults) to be prospectively followed for all respiratory tract infections. Follow-up lasted from recruitment until April 2022. Daily symptoms were monitored by weekly electronic questionnaires. SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction testing from nasopharyngeal specimens was performed for symptomatic participants and twice (1-week interval) for the household members of positive participants. Clinical features and secondary attack rates (SARs) based on the onset of symptoms were compared between respiratory infections that were SARS-CoV-2 positive and negative. RESULTS: Most SARS-CoV-2 infections (90%) occurred from January to April 2022 when Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 were the dominant variants. SARS-CoV-2-positive infections were transmitted more often than SARS-CoV-2-negative infections (SAR, 41% vs 24%; P < .001). SARS-CoV-2 transmission was similar for child and adult index cases (SAR, 40% vs 43%; P = .47), but the transmission of SARS-CoV-2-negative infections was higher for child index cases (SAR, 27% vs 18%; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings demonstrate that SARS-CoV-2 Omicron viruses spread more effectively within households as compared with other respiratory infections.

Incidence and transmission associated with respiratory viruses in an acute care facility: An observational study.

We estimated the extent of respiratory virus transmission over three pre-COVID-19 seasons. Of 16,273 assays, 22.9% (3,726) detected ≥1 respiratory virus. The frequency of putatively hospital-acquired infection ranged from 6.9% (influenza A/B) to 24.7% (adenovirus). The 176 clusters were most commonly associated with rhinovirus/enterovirus (70) and influenza A/B (62).

Simulating respiratory disease transmission within and between classrooms to assess pandemic management strategies at schools.

The global spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has emphasized the need for evidence-based strategies for the safe operation of schools during pandemics that balance infection risk with the society's responsibility of allowing children to attend school. Due to limited empirical data, existing analyses assessing school-based interventions in pandemic situations often impose strong assumptions, for example, on the relationship between class size and transmission risk, which could bias the estimated effect of interventions, such as split classes and staggered attendance. To fill this gap in school outbreak studies, we parameterized an individual-based model that accounts for heterogeneous contact rates within and between classes and grades to a multischool outbreak data of influenza. We then simulated school outbreaks of respiratory infectious diseases of ongoing threat (i.e., COVID-19) and potential threat (i.e., pandemic influenza) under a variety of interventions (changing class structures, symptom screening, regular testing, cohorting, and responsive class closures). Our results suggest that interventions changing class structures (e.g., reduced class sizes) may not be effective in reducing the risk of major school outbreaks upon introduction of a case and that other precautionary measures (e.g., screening and isolation) need to be employed. Class-level closures in response to detection of a case were also suggested to be effective in reducing the size of an outbreak.

Hybrid measurement of respiratory aerosol reveals a dominant coarse fraction resulting from speech that remains airborne for minutes.

Accurate measurements of the size and quantity of aerosols generated by various human activities in different environments are required for efficacious mitigation strategies and accurate modeling of respiratory disease transmission. Previous studies of speech droplets, using standard aerosol instrumentation, reported very few particles larger than 5 µm. This starkly contrasts with the abundance of such particles seen in both historical slide deposition measurements and more recent light scattering observations. We have reconciled this discrepancy by developing an alternative experimental approach that addresses complications arising from nucleated condensation. Measurements reveal that a large volume fraction of speech-generated aerosol has diameters in the 5- to 20-µm range, making them sufficiently small to remain airborne for minutes, not hours. This coarse aerosol is too large to penetrate the lower respiratory tract directly, and its relevance to disease transmission is consistent with the vast majority of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections initiating in the upper respiratory tract. Our measurements suggest that in the absence of symptoms such as coughing or sneezing, the importance of speech-generated aerosol in the transmission of respiratory diseases is far greater than generally recognized.

A video-based analysis of situations bearing the risk of respiratory disease transmission during football matches.

We aimed to analyze the number and type of contacts involving the risk of respiratory disease transmission during football match play. We analysed 50 matches from different playing levels. Two reviewers evaluated the contacts of all players in each match. We focused on between-player contacts, crowding, actions with potentially increased aerosol and droplet production and within-player hand-to-head contacts. We categorized the duels with direct contact into frontal and other ones and measured contact duration. The number of between-player contacts were similar between playing levels (median 28.3 [IQR 22.6, 33] contacts per player-hour). Frontal contacts summed up to 8% of all contacts. Contacts involving the head occurred less than once per player and match with none lasting longer than 3 s. Crowding included between two and six players and the duration was mostly less than 10 s. Aerosol and droplet producing activities were three to four times more frequent in adult compared to youth players. Our results suggest that the risk of respiratory pathogen transmission is low during football matches. This conclusion is based on the finding that most close contact situations are of short duration and on the fact that it is an outdoor sport.