Modelling infectious diseases with herd immunity in a randomly mixed population.

The conventional susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model tends to magnify the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases, and thus the estimated total infections and immunized population may be higher than the threshold required for infection control and eradication. The study developed a new SIR framework that allows the transmission rate of infectious diseases to decline along with the reduced risk of contact infection to overcome the limitations of the conventional SIR model. Two new SIR models were formulated to mimic the declining transmission rate of infectious diseases at different stages of transmission. Model A utilized the declining transmission rate along with the reduced risk of contact infection following infection, while Model B incorporated the declining transmission rate following recovery. Both new models and the conventional SIR model were then used to simulate an infectious disease with a basic reproduction number (r0) of 3.0 and a herd immunity threshold (HIT) of 0.667 with and without vaccination. Outcomes of simulations were assessed at the time when the total immunized population reached the level predicted by the HIT, and at the end of simulations. Further, all three models were used to simulate the transmission dynamics of seasonal influenza in the United States and disease burdens were projected and compared with estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. For the simulated infectious disease, in the initial phase of the outbreak, all three models performed expectedly when the sizes of infectious and recovered populations were relatively small. As the infectious population increased, the conventional SIR model appeared to overestimate the infections even when the HIT was achieved in all scenarios with and without vaccination. For the same scenario, Model A appeared to attain the level predicted by the HIT and in comparison, Model B projected the infectious disease to be controlled at the level predicted by the HIT only at high vaccination rates. For infectious diseases with high r0, and at low vaccination rates, the level at which the infectious disease was controlled cannot be accurately predicted by the current theorem. Transmission dynamics of infectious diseases with herd immunity can be accurately modelled by allowing the transmission rate of infectious diseases to decline along with the reduction of contact infection risk after recovery or vaccination. Model B provides a credible framework for modelling infectious diseases with herd immunity in a randomly mixed population.

Understanding protection from SARS-CoV-2 using metabolomics.

The COVID-19 pandemic is still raging in most countries. Although the recent mass vaccination campaign has opened a new chapter in the battle against SARS-CoV-2, the world is still far from herd immunity. There is an urgent need to identify healthy people at high risk of contracting COVID-19, as well as supplements and nutraceuticals that can reduce the risk of infection or mitigate symptoms. In the present study, a metabolic phenotype that could protect individuals from SARS-CoV-2 infection or predispose them to developing COVID-19 was investigated. Untargeted metabolomics was performed on serum samples collected from 51 healthcare workers who were in good health at the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy, and who were later exposed to the same risk of developing COVID-19. Half of them developed COVID-19 within three weeks of the blood collection. Our results demonstrate the presence of a specific signature associated with protection from SARS-CoV-2. Circulating monolaurin, which has well-known antiviral and antibacterial properties, was higher in protected subjects, suggesting a potential defensive role against SARS-CoV-2 infection; thus, dietary supplements could boost the immune system against this infection. In addition, our data demonstrate that people with higher levels of cholesterol are at higher risk of developing COVID-19. The present study demonstrates that metabolomics can be of great help for developing personalized medicine and for supporting public healthcare strategies. Studies with larger cohorts of subjects are necessary to confirm our findings.

COVID-19 related interdisciplinary methods: Preventing errors and detecting research opportunities.

More than 130,000 peer-reviewed studies have been published within one year after COVID-19 emerged in many countries. This large and rapidly growing field may overwhelm the synthesizing abilities of both researchers and policy-makers. To provide a sinopsis, prevent errors, and detect cognitive gaps that may require interdisciplinary research methods, the literature on COVID-19 is summarized, twice. The overall purpose of this study is to generate a dialogue meant to explain the genesis of and/or find remedies for omissions and contradictions. The first review starts in Biology and ends in Policy. Policy is chosen as a destination because it is the setting where cognitive integration must occur. The second review follows the opposite path: it begins with stated policies on COVID-19 and then their assumptions and disciplinary relationships are identified. The purpose of this interdisciplinary method on methods is to yield a relational and explanatory view of the field -one strategy likely to be incomplete but usable when large bodies of literature need to be rapidly summarized. These reviews identify nine inter-related problems, research needs, or omissions, namely: (1) nation-wide, geo-referenced, epidemiological data collection systems (open to and monitored by the public); (2) metrics meant to detect non-symptomatic cases -e.g., test positivity-; (3) cost-benefit oriented methods, which should demonstrate they detect silent viral spreaders even with limited testing; (4) new personalized tests that inform on biological functions and disease correlates, such as cell-mediated immunity, co-morbidities, and immuno-suppression; (5) factors that influence vaccine effectiveness; (6) economic predictions that consider the long-term consequences likely to follow epidemics that growth exponentially; (7) the errors induced by self-limiting and/or implausible paradigms, such as binary and reductionist approaches; (8) new governance models that emphasize problem-solving skills, social participation, and the use of scientific knowledge; and (9) new educational programs that utilize visual aids and audience-specific communication strategies. The analysis indicates that, to optimally address these problems, disciplinary and social integration is needed. By asking what is/are the potential cause(s) and consequence(s) of each issue, this methodology generates visualizations that reveal possible relationships as well as omissions and contradictions. While inherently limited in scope and likely to become obsolete, these shortcomings are avoided when this 'method on methods' is frequently practiced. Open-ended, inter-/trans-disciplinary perspectives and broad social participation may help researchers and citizens to construct, de-construct, and re-construct COVID-19 related research.

Model-based analysis on social acceptability and feasibility of a focused protection strategy against the COVID-19 pandemic.

This paper studies the social acceptability and feasibility of a focused protection strategy against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We propose a control scheme to develop herd immunity while satisfying the following two basic requirements for a viable policy option. The first requirement is social acceptability: the overall deaths should be minimized for social acceptance. The second is feasibility: the healthcare system should not be overwhelmed to avoid various adverse effects. To exploit the fact that the disease severity increases considerably with age and comorbidities, we assume that some focused protection measures for those high-risk individuals are implemented and the disease does not spread within the high-risk population. Because the protected population has higher severity ratios than the unprotected population by definition, the protective measure can substantially reduce mortality in the whole population and also avoid the collapse of the healthcare system. Based on a simple susceptible-infected-recovered model, social acceptability and feasibility of the proposed strategy are summarized into two easily computable conditions. The proposed framework can be applied to various populations for studying the viability of herd immunity strategies against COVID-19. For Japan, herd immunity may be developed by the proposed scheme if [Formula: see text] and the severity rates of the disease are 1/10 times smaller than the previously reported value, although as high mortality as seasonal influenza is expected.

COVID-19 reinfection - An enigmatic public health threat.

To the Editor The COVID-19 pandemic has been consistently on the rise across the globe. The recovered patients getting long-term sequelae, especially lung fibrosis and residual neurological deficits, is an area of concern. Another extremely important conundrum is the risk of re-infection. It has been recently documented from Hong Kong  and puts an unpleasant question mark on long term immunity, sampling technique standardization, viral mutation and efficacy of herd immunity. There are definitions for COVID -19 infection and its severity, but unfortunately none for re-infection.

Infectious diseases epidemiology, quantitative methodology, and clinical research in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic: Perspective from a European country.

Starting from historic reflections, the current SARS-CoV-2 induced COVID-19 pandemic is examined from various perspectives, in terms of what it implies for the implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions, the modeling and monitoring of the epidemic, the development of early-warning systems, the study of mortality, prevalence estimation, diagnostic and serological testing, vaccine development, and ultimately clinical trials. Emphasis is placed on how the pandemic had led to unprecedented speed in methodological and clinical development, the pitfalls thereof, but also the opportunities that it engenders for national and international collaboration, and how it has simplified and sped up procedures. We also study the impact of the pandemic on clinical trials in other indications. We note that it has placed biostatistics, epidemiology, virology, infectiology, and vaccinology, and related fields in the spotlight in an unprecedented way, implying great opportunities, but also the need to communicate effectively, often amidst controversy.

A Web Application About Herd Immunity Using Personalized Avatars: Development Study.

BACKGROUND: Herd immunity or community immunity refers to the reduced risk of infection among susceptible individuals in a population through the presence and proximity of immune individuals. Recent studies suggest that improving the understanding of community immunity may increase intentions to get vaccinated. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to design a web application about community immunity and optimize it based on users' cognitive and emotional responses. METHODS: Our multidisciplinary team developed a web application about community immunity to communicate epidemiological evidence in a personalized way. In our application, people build their own community by creating an avatar representing themselves and 8 other avatars representing people around them, for example, their family or coworkers. The application integrates these avatars in a 2-min visualization showing how different parameters (eg, vaccine coverage, and contact within communities) influence community immunity. We predefined communication goals, created prototype visualizations, and tested four iterative versions of our visualization in a university-based human-computer interaction laboratory and community-based settings (a cafeteria, two shopping malls, and a public library). Data included psychophysiological measures (eye tracking, galvanic skin response, facial emotion recognition, and electroencephalogram) to assess participants' cognitive and affective responses to the visualization and verbal feedback to assess their interpretations of the visualization's content and messaging. RESULTS: Among 110 participants across all four cycles, 68 (61.8%) were women and 38 (34.5%) were men (4/110, 3.6%; not reported), with a mean age of 38 (SD 17) years. More than half (65/110, 59.0%) of participants reported having a university-level education. Iterative changes across the cycles included adding the ability for users to create their own avatars, specific signals about who was represented by the different avatars, using color and movement to indicate protection or lack of protection from infectious disease, and changes to terminology to ensure clarity for people with varying educational backgrounds. Overall, we observed 3 generalizable findings. First, visualization does indeed appear to be a promising medium for conveying what community immunity is and how it works. Second, by involving multiple users in an iterative design process, it is possible to create a short and simple visualization that clearly conveys a complex topic. Finally, evaluating users' emotional responses during the design process, in addition to their cognitive responses, offers insights that help inform the final design of an intervention. CONCLUSIONS: Visualization with personalized avatars may help people understand their individual roles in population health. Our app showed promise as a method of communicating the relationship between individual behavior and community health. The next steps will include assessing the effects of the application on risk perception, knowledge, and vaccination intentions in a randomized controlled trial. This study offers a potential road map for designing health communication materials for complex topics such as community immunity.

Combining serological and contact data to derive target immunity levels for achieving and maintaining measles elimination.

BACKGROUND: Vaccination has reduced the global incidence of measles to the lowest rates in history. However, local interruption of measles virus transmission requires sustained high levels of population immunity that can be challenging to achieve and maintain. The herd immunity threshold for measles is typically stipulated at 90-95%. This figure does not easily translate into age-specific immunity levels required to interrupt transmission. Previous estimates of such levels were based on speculative contact patterns based on historical data from high-income countries. The aim of this study was to determine age-specific immunity levels that would ensure elimination of measles when taking into account empirically observed contact patterns. METHODS: We combined estimated immunity levels from serological data in 17 countries with studies of age-specific mixing patterns to derive contact-adjusted immunity levels. We then compared these to case data from the 10 years following the seroprevalence studies to establish a contact-adjusted immunity threshold for elimination. We lastly combined a range of hypothetical immunity profiles with contact data from a wide range of socioeconomic and demographic settings to determine whether they would be sufficient for elimination. RESULTS: We found that contact-adjusted immunity levels were able to predict whether countries would experience outbreaks in the decade following the serological studies in about 70% of countries. The corresponding threshold level of contact-adjusted immunity was found to be 93%, corresponding to an average basic reproduction number of approximately 14. Testing different scenarios of immunity with this threshold level using contact studies from around the world, we found that 95% immunity would have to be achieved by the age of five and maintained across older age groups to guarantee elimination. This reflects a greater level of immunity required in 5-9-year-olds than established previously. CONCLUSIONS: The immunity levels we found necessary for measles elimination are higher than previous guidance. The importance of achieving high immunity levels in 5-9-year-olds presents both a challenge and an opportunity. While such high levels can be difficult to achieve, school entry provides an opportunity to ensure sufficient vaccination coverage. Combined with observations of contact patterns, further national and sub-national serological studies could serve to highlight key gaps in immunity that need to be filled in order to achieve national and regional measles elimination.

Streptococcus pneumoniae serotype 3 is masking PCV13-mediated herd immunity in Canadian adults hospitalized with community acquired pneumonia: A study from the Serious Outcomes Surveillance (SOS) Network of the Canadian immunization research Network (CIRN).

BACKGROUND: The 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) was recently shown to be effective against PCV13-type invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and pneumococcal community acquired pneumonia (CAPSpn) in healthy adults aged ≥65 years, prompting many countries to re-assess adult immunization. In Canada, the potential benefits of adult PCV13 immunization were unclear given anticipated herd immunity from PCV13 childhood immunization introduced since 2010. This study describes the serotype distribution and clinical outcomes of Canadian adults aged ≥16 years, who were hospitalized with CAPSpn and IPD from 2010 to 2015. METHODS: Active surveillance for CAP and IPD was performed in adult hospitals across five Canadian provinces. IPD was identified when Streptococcus pneumoniae was isolated from sterile sites. Bacteremic and non-bacteremic CAPSpn were identified using blood culture, and sputum culture or PCV13-specific urine antigen detection (UADPCV13), respectively. Serotype was assigned using Quellung reaction, PCR, or UADPCV13. RESULTS: Of 6687 CAP cases where a test was performed, S. pneumoniae positivity decreased from 15.9% in 2011 to 8.8% in 2014, but increased to 12.9% in 2015. CAPSpn attributed to PCV13 serotypes followed a similar trend, dropping from 8.3% in 2010 to 4.6% in 2014, but increasing to 6.3% in 2015. The decline was primarily attributed to serotypes 7F and 19A, and the proportional increase to serotype 3. Similar trends were noted for bacteremic and non-bacteremic CAPSpn. Serious outcomes such as 30-day mortality, intensive care unit admission, and requirement for mechanical ventilation were prominent in CAPSpn and IPD cases, but remained unchanged over the study years. CONCLUSION: Herd immunity afforded primarily by serotypes 7F and 19A appears to be partly masked by a concomitant proportional increase of serotype 3. Despite evidence of herd immunity, these PCV13 serotypes remain persistent in Canadian adults hospitalized with CAPSpn, and represent between 5 and 10% of all CAP in this patient population.

Genomic signature of early T-cell response is associated with lower antibody titer threshold for sterilizing immunity.

Vaccination is an effective approach to reduce disease burden. High vaccination coverage blocks pathogen transmission to ensure herd immunity. However, the concept of herd immunity assumes that vaccinated individuals cannot be infected and mediate silent pathogen transmission. While the correlates of vaccine-mediated protection against disease have been examined, the correlates of sterilizing immunity that prevents infection have not been systematically defined. Here, we used full genome expression profiling to explore the molecular correlates of serological response and non-response to measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccination as surrogates of infection and sterilizing immunity, respectively. We observed that the antibody titers needed to sterilize infection with the vaccine strains were higher than current WHO disease protection thresholds. In subjects with baseline antibodies below such sterilizing immunity thresholds, serological non-response to MMR vaccination was associated with gene expression profile indicative of early T-cell activation and signalling. Specifically, genes that regulate T-cell function and response were induced at day 1 post-vaccination in non-responders but not in responders. These findings suggest that rapid T-cell response prevented MMR vaccine infection to limit antigenic presentation and hence serological response. Collectively, our findings suggest an important role for T-cells in engendering sterilizing immunity.

Fitness costs associated with mounting a social immune response.

Social immune systems comprise immune defences mounted by individuals for the benefit of others (sensuCotter & Kilner 2010a). Just as with other forms of immunity, mounting a social immune response is expected to be costly but so far these fitness costs are unknown. We measured the costs of social immunity in a sub-social burying beetle, a species in which two or more adults defend a carrion breeding resource for their young by smearing the flesh with antibacterial anal exudates. Our experiments on widowed females reveal that a bacterial challenge to the breeding resource upregulates the antibacterial activity of a female's exudates, and this subsequently reduces her lifetime reproductive success. We suggest that the costliness of social immunity is a source of evolutionary conflict between breeding adults on a carcass, and that the phoretic communities that the beetles transport between carrion may assist the beetle by offsetting these costs.

Bacterial recognition and induced cell activation in sepsis.

The pathogenesis of sepsis involves complex interaction between the host and the infecting microorganism. Recognition and processing of microorganism antigens are essential functions of the cells of innate immune systems, and will ultimately, through the antigen presentation to the cells of adaptive immunity and the synthesis and secretions of mediators, such as cytokines, drive a coordinated immune response. Neutrophils and monocytes will therefore function as sensing and effectors cells. Fundamental in this process is the ability to discriminate self from non-self molecules. Of major interest in sepsis is that the protective and damaging host responses are part of the same process, that is, the inflammatory response that controls the infection process also underscores many of the pathophysiological events of sepsis. Moreover, this is a dynamic process according to the continuum of sepsis and its complications; up and down regulation of cellular activities may be differently regulated in different tissues, different cells and even in different functions of the same cell. This review will focus on microorganism recognition and signalization in sepsis, with emphasis on the neutrophils and monocytes adaptation during the ongoing disease.

Cost-effectiveness of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine: evidence from the first 5 years of use in the United States incorporating herd effects.

BACKGROUND: Pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) has been in routine use in the United States for 5 years. Prior U.S. cost-effectiveness analyses have not taken into account the effect of the vaccine on nonvaccinated persons. METHODS: We revised a previously published model to simulate the effects of PCV on children vaccinated between 2000 and 2004, and to incorporate the effect of the vaccine in reducing invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) in nonvaccinated persons during those years. Data from the Active Bacterial Core Surveillance of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (2000-2004) were used to estimate changes in the burden of IPD in nonvaccinated adults since the introduction of PCV (compared with the baseline years 1997-1999). Results combined the simulated effects of the vaccine on the vaccinated and nonvaccinated populations. RESULTS: Before incorporating herd effects in the model, the PCV was estimated to have averted 38,000 cases of IPD during its first 5 years of use at a cost of dollar 112,000 per life-year saved. After incorporating the reductions in IPD for nonvaccinated individuals, the vaccine averted 109,000 cases of IPD at a cost of dollar 7500 per life-year saved. When the herd effect was assumed to be half that of the base case, the cost per life-year saved was dollar 18,000. CONCLUSIONS: IPD herd effects in the nonvaccinated population substantially reduce the cost, and substantially improve the cost-effectiveness, of PCV. The cost-effectiveness of PCV in actual use has been more favorable than predicted by estimates created before the vaccine was licensed.