Morbidity and mortality outcomes of patients requiring isolated tricuspid valve surgery: a retrospective cohort study of 537 patients in New South Wales between 2002 and 2018.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of the study was to evaluate mortality and morbidity outcomes following open-heart isolated tricuspid valve surgery (TVSx) with medium to long-term follow-up. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: New South Wales public and private hospital admissions between 1 January 2002 and 30 June 2018. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 537 patients underwent open isolated TVSx during the study period. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcome was all-cause mortality tracked from the death registry to 31 December 2018. Secondary morbidity outcomes, including admission for congestive cardiac failure (CCF), new atrial fibrillation (AF), infective endocarditis (IE), pulmonary embolism (PE) and insertion of a permanent pacemaker (PPM) or implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD), were tracked from the Admitted Patient Data Collection database. Independent mortality associations were determined using the Cox regression method. RESULTS: A total of 537 patients underwent open isolated TVSx (46% male): median age (IQR) was 63.5 years (43.9-73.8 years) with median length of stay of 16 days (10-31 days). Main cardiovascular comorbidities were AF (54%) and CCF (42%); 67% had rheumatic tricuspid valve. In-hospital and total mortality were 7.4% and 39.3%, respectively (mean follow-up: 4.8 years). Cause-specific deaths were evenly split between cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular causes. Predictors of mortality included a history of CCF (HR=1.78, 95% CI 1.33 to 2.38, p<0.001) and chronic pulmonary disease (HR=2.66, 95% CI 1.63 to 4.33, p<0.001). In-hospital PPM rate was 10.0%. At 180 days, 53 (9.9%) patients were admitted for CCF, 25 (10.1%) had new AF, 7 (1.5%) had new IE and <1% had PE, post-discharge PPM or ICD insertion. CONCLUSION: Open isolated TVSx carries significant mortality risk, with decompensated CCF and new AF the most common morbidities encountered after surgery. This report forms a benchmark to compare outcomes with newer percutaneous tricuspid interventions.

Understanding Risk Factors for Oropharyngeal Gonorrhea Among Sex Workers Attending Sexual Health Clinics in 2 Australian Cities: Mixed Methods Study.

BACKGROUND: The risk factors for oropharyngeal gonorrhea have not been examined in sex workers despite the increasing prevalence of gonorrhea infection. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to determine the risk factors for oropharyngeal gonorrhea in female and gender-diverse sex workers (including cisgender and transgender women, nonbinary and gender fluid sex workers, and those with a different identity) and examine kissing, oral sex, and mouthwash practices with clients. METHODS: This mixed methods case-control study was conducted from 2018 to 2020 at 2 sexual health clinics in Melbourne, Victoria, and Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. We recruited 83 sex workers diagnosed with oropharyngeal gonorrhea (cases) and 581 sex workers without (controls). Semistructured interviews with 19 sex workers from Melbourne were conducted. RESULTS: In the case-control study, the median age of 664 sex workers was 30 (IQR 25-36) years. Almost 30% of sex workers (192/664, 28.9%) reported performing condomless fellatio on clients. Performing condomless fellatio with clients was the only behavior associated with oropharyngeal gonorrhea (adjusted odds ratio 3.6, 95% CI 1.7-7.6; P=.001). Most participants (521/664, 78.5%) used mouthwash frequently. In the qualitative study, almost all sex workers reported kissing clients due to demand and generally reported following clients' lead with regard to kissing style and duration. However, they used condoms for fellatio because they considered it a risky practice for contracting sexually transmitted infections, unlike cunnilingus without a dental dam. CONCLUSIONS: Our study shows that condomless fellatio is a risk factor for oropharyngeal gonorrhea among sex workers despite most sex workers using condoms with their clients for fellatio. Novel interventions, particularly targeting the oropharynx, will be required for oropharyngeal gonorrhea prevention.

Controlling COVID-19 outbreaks in the correctional setting: A mathematical modelling study.

Correctional centres (termed here 'prisons') are at high risk of COVID-19 and have featured major outbreaks worldwide. Inevitable close contacts, frequent inmate movements, and a disproportionate burden of co-morbidities mean these environments need to be prioritised in any public health response to respiratory pathogens such as COVID-19. We developed an individual-based SARS-CoV-2 transmission model for the prison system in New South Wales, Australia - incorporating all 33 correctional centres, 13,458 inmates, 578 healthcare and 6,909 custodial staff. Potential COVID-19 disease outbreaks were assessed under various mitigation strategies, including quarantine on entry, isolation of cases, rapid antigen testing of staff, as well as immunisation.Without control measures, the model projected a peak of 472 new infections daily by day 35 across the prison system, with all inmates infected by day 120. The most effective individual mitigation strategies were high immunisation coverage and prompt lockdown of centres with infected inmates which reduced outbreak size by 62-73%. Other than immunisation, the combination of quarantine of inmates at entry, isolation of proven or suspected cases, and widespread use of personal protective equipment by staff and inmates was the most effective strategy. High immunisation coverage mitigates the spread of COVID-19 within and between correctional settings but is insufficient alone. Maintaining quarantine and isolation, along with high immunisation levels, will allow correctional systems to function with a low risk of outbreaks. These results have informed public health policy for respiratory pathogens in Australian correctional systems.

'Joining the Dots: Linking Prenatal Drug Exposure to Childhood and Adolescence' - research protocol of a population cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Prenatal drug exposure (PDE) is one of the most important causes of child harm, but comprehensive information about the long-term outcomes of the families is difficult to ascertain. The Joining the Dots cohort study uses linked population data to understand the relationship between services, therapeutic interventions and outcomes of children with PDE. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Information from routinely collected administrative databases was linked for all births registered in New South Wales (NSW), Australia between 1 July 2001 and 31 December 2020 (n=1 834 550). Outcomes for seven mutually exclusive groups of children with varying prenatal exposure to maternal substances of addiction, including smoking, alcohol, prescription/illicit drugs and neonatal abstinence syndrome will be assessed. Key exposure measures include maternal drug use type, maternal social demographics or social determinants of health, and maternal physical and mental health comorbidities. Key outcome measures will include child mortality, academic standardised testing results, rehospitalisation and maternal survival. Data analysis will be conducted using Stata V.18.0. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Approvals were obtained from the NSW Population and Health Services Research Ethics Committee (29 June 2020; 2019/ETH12716) and the Australian Capital Territory Health Human Research Ethics Committee (11 October 2021; 2021-1231, 2021-1232, 2021-1233); and the Aboriginal Health and Medical Research Council (5 July 2022; 1824/21), and all Australian educational sectors: Board of Studies (government schools), Australian Independent Schools and Catholic Education Commission (D2014/120797). Data were released to researchers in September 2022. Results will be presented in peer-reviewed academic journals and at international conferences. Collaborative efforts from similar datasets in other countries are welcome.

Health Perceptions, Multimorbidity, and New Fractures and Mortality Among Patients With a Fracture.

Importance: A high proportion of patients who sustain a fracture have multimorbidity. However, the association of multimorbidity with postfracture adverse outcomes, such as subsequent fractures and premature mortality, has not been widely explored. Objective: To examine the association of multimorbidity and self-rated health with subsequent fractures and mortality after fracture. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prospective cohort study included participants from New South Wales, Australia, in the Sax Institute's 45 and Up Study (n = 267 357). Participants were recruited from July 2005 to December 2009 and followed up from the date of the incident fracture until subsequent fracture, death, or the end of the study (April 2017), whichever occurred first, with questionnaire data linked to hospital admission and medication records. Data analysis was reported between March and September 2023. Exposures: Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) score and self-rated health (SRH). Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcomes were subsequent fracture or mortality after an incident fracture. Associations between SRH measures and subsequent fracture and mortality were also assessed. All analyses were stratified by sex given the different fracture and mortality risk profiles of females and males. Results: Of 25 280 adults who sustained incident fractures, 16 191 (64%) were female (mean [SD] age, 74 [12] years) and 9089 (36%) were male (mean [SD] age, 74 [13] years). During a median follow-up time of 2.8 years (IQR, 1.1-5.2 years), 2540 females (16%) and 1135 males (12%) sustained a subsequent fracture and 2281 females (14%) and 2140 males (24%) died without a subsequent fracture. Compared with a CCI score of less than 2, those with a CCI score of 2 to 3 had an increased risk of subsequent fracture (females: hazard ratio [HR], 1.16 [95% CI, 1.05-1.27]; males: HR, 1.25 [95% CI, 1.09-1.43]) and mortality (females: HR, 2.19 [95% CI, 1.99-2.40]; males: HR, 1.89 [95% CI, 1.71-2.09]). Those with a CCI score of 4 or greater had greater risks of subsequent fracture (females: HR, 1.33 [95% CI, 1.12-1.58]; males: HR, 1.48 [95% CI, 1.21-1.81]) and mortality (females: HR, 4.48 [95% CI, 3.97-5.06]; males: HR, 3.82 [95% CI 3.41-4.29]). Self-rated health was also significantly associated with subsequent fracture and mortality. Those reporting the poorest health and quality of life had the highest subsequent fracture risks, and their mortality risks were even higher. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, both CCI and SRH measures were associated with increased risk of subsequent fractures and mortality after fracture, underscoring the importance of managing the care of patients with comorbidities who sustain a fracture.

Predictive analytics for cardiovascular patient readmission and mortality: An explainable approach.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular patients experience high rates of adverse outcomes following discharge from hospital, which may be preventable through early identification and targeted action. This study aimed to investigate the effectiveness and explainability of machine learning algorithms in predicting unplanned readmission and death in cardiovascular patients at 30 days and 180 days from discharge. METHODS: Gradient boosting machines were trained and evaluated using data from hospital electronic medical records linked to hospital administrative and mortality data for 39,255 patients admitted to four hospitals in New South Wales, Australia between 2017 and 2021. Sociodemographic variables, admission history, and clinical information were used as potential predictors. The performance was compared to LASSO regression, as well as the HOSPITAL and LACE risk score indices. Important risk factors identified by the gradient-boosting machine model were explored using Shapley values. RESULTS: The models performed well, especially for the mortality outcomes. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values were 0.70 for readmission and 0.87-0.90 for mortality using the full gradient boosting machine algorithms. Among the top predictors for 30-day and 180-day readmission were increased red cell distribution width, old age (especially above 80 years), high measured troponin and urea levels, not being married or in a relationship, and low albumin levels. For mortality, these included increased red cell distribution width, old age (especially older than 70 years), high measured troponin and urea levels, high neutrophil and monocyte counts, and low eosinophil and lymphocyte counts. The Shapley values gave clear insight into the dynamics of decision-tree-based models. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrated an explainable predictive algorithm to identify cardiovascular patients who are at high risk of readmission or death at discharge from the hospital and identified key risk factors.

Outcomes of atypical (B3) core biopsy lesions diagnosed across BreastScreen NSW, Australia.

INTRODUCTION: Atypical or B3 lesions comprise a heterogeneous group of uncertain malignant potential. B3 lesions diagnosed on core biopsy are usually recommended for diagnostic open biopsy. Identifying factors which could allow conservative management of B3 lesions would be helpful in avoiding unnecessary surgery. The aim of this study was to identify the upgrade rate to malignancy for B3 core biopsy lesions and to compare characteristics of lesions which were malignant and benign at excision. METHOD: This retrospective study used data from BreastScreen New South Wales (NSW), Australia, of women who were diagnosed with B3 lesions on needle biopsy from 2011 to 2019. RESULTS: During the study period, 1927 B3 lesions were included. The upgrade rate to malignancy was 26.4%. Of the malignant lesions on excision, 29.6% were invasive and 69.2% were in situ. The rates of upgrade to invasive cancer and DCIS varied substantially with the core biopsy lesion type. Lesions with atypia on core biopsy had significantly higher upgrade rates to malignancy at 34.7% compared to 13.6% for lesions without atypia (p < 0.0001). Lesions with malignant pathology were significantly larger than those with benign pathology (difference = 5.1 mm (95% CI 2.7-7.5 mm), p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The overall upgrade rate of B3 lesions to malignancy was 26.4%. The majority of the lesions were upgraded to DCIS instead of invasive cancer. Upgrade rates varied by lesion type. Lesions with atypia had significantly higher upgrade rates to cancer compared to lesions without atypia. Malignant lesions were significantly larger than benign lesions.

Delirium and incident dementia in hospital patients in New South Wales, Australia: retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the strength and nature of the association between delirium and incident dementia in a population of older adult patients without dementia at baseline. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study using large scale hospital administrative data. SETTING: Public and private hospitals in New South Wales, Australia between July 2001 and March 2020. PARTICIPANTS: Data were extracted for 650 590 hospital patients aged ≥65 years. Diagnoses of dementia and delirium were identified from ICD-10 (international classification of diseases, 10th revision) codes. Patients with dementia at baseline were excluded. Delirium-no delirium pairs were identified by matching personal and clinical characteristics, and were followed for more than five years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Cox proportional hazards models and Fine-Gray hazard models were used to estimate the associations of delirium with death and incident dementia, respectively. Delirium-outcome dose-response associations were quantified, all analyses were performed in men and women separately, and sensitivity analyses were conducted. RESULTS: The study included 55 211 matched pairs (48% men, mean age 83.4 years, standard deviation 6.5 years). Collectively, 58% (n=63 929) of patients died and 17% (n=19 117) had a newly reported dementia diagnosis during 5.25 years of follow-up. Patients with delirium had 39% higher risk of death (hazard ratio 1.39, 95% confidence interval 1.37 to 1.41) and three times higher risk of incident dementia (subdistribution hazard ratio 3.00, 95% confidence interval 2.91 to 3.10) than patients without delirium. The association with dementia was stronger in men (P=0.004). Each additional episode of delirium was associated with a 20% increased risk of dementia (subdistribution hazard ratio 1.20, 95% confidence interval 1.18 to 1.23). CONCLUSIONS: The study findings suggest delirium was a strong risk factor for death and incident dementia among older adult patients. The data support a causal interpretation of the association between delirium and dementia. The clinical implications of delirium as a potentially modifiable risk factor for dementia are substantial.

First implantable cardiac defibrillator insertions in New South Wales, 2005-2020: an analysis of linked administrative data.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the annual numbers of first ICD insertions in New South Wales during 2005-2020; to examine health outcomes for people who first received ICDs during this period. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study; analysis of linked administrative health data. SETTING, PARTICIPANTS: All first insertions of ICDs in NSW, 2005-2020. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Annual numbers of first ICD insertions, and of emergency department presentations and hospital re-admissions 30 days, 90 days, 365 days after first ICD insertions; all-cause and disease-specific mortality (to ten years after ICD insertion). RESULTS: During 2005-2020, ICDs were first inserted into 16 867 people (18.5 per 100 000 population); their mean age was 65.7 years (standard deviation, 13.5 years; 7376 aged 70 years or older, 43.7%), 13 214 were men (78.3%). The annual number of insertions increased from 791 in 2005 to 1256 in 2016; the first ICD insertion rate increased from 15.5 in 2005 to 18.9 per 100 000 population in 2010, after which the rate was stable until 2019 (19.8 per 100 000 population). Of the 16 778 people discharged alive from hospital after first ICD insertions, 54.4% presented to emergency departments within twelve months, including 1236 with cardiac arrhythmias (7.4%) and 434 with device-related problems (2.6%); 56% were re-admitted to hospital, including 1944 with cardiac arrhythmias (11.5%) and 2045 with device-related problems (12.1%). A total of 5624 people who received first ICDs during 2005-2020 (33.3%) died during follow-up (6.7 deaths per 100 person-years); the survival rate was 94.4% at one year, 76.5% at five years, and 54.2% at ten years. CONCLUSIONS: The annual number of new ICDs inserted in NSW has increased since 2005. A substantial proportion of recipients experience device-related problems that require re-admission to hospital. The potential harms of ICD insertion should be considered when assessing the likelihood of preventing fatal ventricular arrhythmia.

Do they stay, or do they go? Children presenting to five emergency departments across New South Wales, Australia with acute burn injuries: a retrospective review.

OBJECTIVE: The overall objective of the study was to describe the disposition status of children presenting with a burn injury to five emergency departments (ED) across New South Wales (NSW), Australia. DESIGN: A retrospective study design was used to review routinely collected ED data. SETTING: Study sites included five acute hospitals across NSW, Australia. PARTICIPANTS: During the 5-year study period between 1 January 2015 to 31 December 2020, there were 5213 paediatric burn injury presentations. RESULTS: The mean age of burn injury presentations was 24 months (Inter-Quartile-Range (IQR) 12-84), of which 57% (2951/5213) were males. The most common presentation time was between 16:00 and 23:59 hours (63%, 3297/5213), and the median time spent in the ED was 3 hours (IQR 1-4). The majority (80%, 4196/5213) of the burn injuries presentations did not require hospital admission. The most common principal diagnoses were 'Burn body region unspecified' (n=1916) and 'Burn of wrist and hand' (n=1060). CONCLUSION: Most children who presented to the hospital with a burn injury were not admitted. Often the details of these burns were poorly recorded and a complete picture of the true burden of burn injury in children, especially the ongoing care given outside the acute hospital setting, is missing. This information is crucial, as it would inform future models of care as the paradigm shifts rapidly towards primary, ambulatory and outpatient models of care.

Emergence of Poultry-Associated Human Salmonella enterica Serovar Abortusovis Infections, New South Wales, Australia.

Salmonella enterica serovar Abortusovis is a ovine-adapted pathogen that causes spontaneous abortion. Salmonella Abortusovis was reported in poultry in 2009 and has since been reported in human infections in New South Wales, Australia. Phylogenomic analysis revealed a clade of 51 closely related isolates from Australia originating in 2004. That clade was genetically distinct from ovine-associated isolates. The clade was widespread in New South Wales poultry production facilities but was only responsible for sporadic human infections. Some known virulence factors associated with human infections were only found in the poultry-associated clade, some of which were acquired through prophages and plasmids. Furthermore, the ovine-associated clade showed signs of genome decay, but the poultry-associated clade did not. Those genomic changes most likely led to differences in host range and disease type. Surveillance using the newly identified genetic markers will be vital for tracking Salmonella Abortusovis transmission in animals and to humans and preventing future outbreaks.

Predicting Adverse Outcomes Following Catheter Ablation Treatment for Atrial Flutter/Fibrillation.

BACKGROUND & AIM: To develop prognostic survival models for predicting adverse outcomes after catheter ablation treatment for non-valvular atrial fibrillation (AF) and/or atrial flutter (AFL). METHODS: We used a linked dataset including hospital administrative data, prescription medicine claims, emergency department presentations, and death registrations of patients in New South Wales, Australia. The cohort included patients who received catheter ablation for AF and/or AFL. Traditional and deep survival models were trained to predict major bleeding events and a composite of heart failure, stroke, cardiac arrest, and death. RESULTS: Out of a total of 3,285 patients in the cohort, 177 (5.3%) experienced the composite outcome-heart failure, stroke, cardiac arrest, death-and 167 (5.1%) experienced major bleeding events after catheter ablation treatment. Models predicting the composite outcome had high-risk discrimination accuracy, with the best model having a concordance index >0.79 at the evaluated time horizons. Models for predicting major bleeding events had poor risk discrimination performance, with all models having a concordance index <0.66. The most impactful features for the models predicting higher risk were comorbidities indicative of poor health, older age, and therapies commonly used in sicker patients to treat heart failure and AF and AFL. DISCUSSION: Diagnosis and medication history did not contain sufficient information for precise risk prediction of experiencing major bleeding events. Predicting the composite outcome yielded promising results, but future research is needed to validate the usefulness of these models in clinical practice. CONCLUSIONS: Machine learning models for predicting the composite outcome have the potential to enable clinicians to identify and manage high-risk patients following catheter ablation for AF and AFL proactively.

Breast Cancer Stage and Size Detected with Film versus Digital Mammography in New South Wales, Australia: A Population-Based Study Using Routinely Collected Data.

BACKGROUND: Digital mammography has replaced film mammography in breast-screening programs globally, including Australia. This led to an increase in the rate of detection, but whether there was increased detection of clinically important cancers is uncertain. METHODS: In this population-wide retrospective cohort study in New South Wales, Australia spanning 2004 to 2016 and including 4,631,656 screens, there were 22,965 cancers in women screened with film (n = 11,040) or digital mammography (n = 11,925). We examined the change in tumor characteristics overall and how these rates changed over time, accounting for changes in background rates using an interrupted time-series. Comparisons were made with unscreened women (n = 26,326) during this time. RESULTS: We found increased detection of in situ cancer (3.36 per 10,000 screens), localized invasive, and smaller-sized breast cancers attributable to the change in mammography technology, whereas screen-detected intermediate-sized and metastatic breast cancers decreased. Rates of early-stage and intermediate-sized interval cancers increased, and late-stage (-1.62 per 10,000 screens) and large interval cancers decreased. In unscreened women, there were small increases in the temporal trends of cancers across all stages. CONCLUSIONS: At least some of the increased detection of smaller early-stage cancers may have translated into a reduction in larger and late-stage cancers, indicating beneficial detection of cancers that would have otherwise progressed. However, the increased detection of smaller early-stage and small cancers may also have increased over-diagnosis of lesions that would otherwise have not caused harm. IMPACT: Robust evaluation of potential benefits and harms is needed after changes to screening programs. See related In the Spotlight, p. 638.

The proof is in the poo-ding: Benefits of the longitudinal molecular surveillance of drug resistance demonstrated in a New South Wales cattle herd.

Our understanding of anthelmintic resistance in the gastrointestinal nematodes of Australian cattle relies exclusively on small-scale phenotypic reports utilising traditional faecal egg count reduction tests. This approach is not readily scalable to establish the national prevalence of resistance, nor is it conducive of routine longitudinal surveillance for the emergence of resistance in its early stages. This study introduces the benefits of applying mixed amplicon metabarcoding longitudinally for timely and cost-efficient molecular surveillance of multiple anthelmintic resistance mutations, as they emerge on farms. Using opportunistically collected faecal samples from a cattle herd in central west New South Wales (2019-2023), we detected the early emergence of Haemonchus spp. levamisole-resistant S168T shortly after levamisole introduction, while benzimidazole-resistant allele frequencies remained constant. Additionally, we observed the possible spill-over of resistant Haemonchus contortus from sheep, along with variations in faecal burdens and species diversity influenced by climate stochasticity and host immunity. This study emphasises the power of molecular diagnostics for farm-level anthelmintic resistance management, providing essential evidence to support its integration into routine surveillance programmes.

Genome characterization of influenza A and B viruses in New South Wales, Australia, in 2019: A retrospective study using high-throughput whole genome sequencing.

BACKGROUND: During the 2019 severe influenza season, New South Wales (NSW) experienced the highest number of cases in Australia. This study retrospectively investigated the genetic characteristics of influenza viruses circulating in NSW in 2019 and identified genetic markers related to antiviral resistance and potential virulence. METHODS: The complete genomes of influenza A and B viruses were amplified using reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and sequenced with an Illumina MiSeq platform. RESULTS: When comparing the sequencing data with the vaccine strains and reference sequences, the phylogenetic analysis revealed that most NSW A/H3N2 viruses (n = 68; 94%) belonged to 3C.2a1b and a minority (n = 4; 6%) belonged to 3C.3a. These viruses all diverged from the vaccine strain A/Switzerland/8060/2017. All A/H1N1pdm09 viruses (n = 20) showed genetic dissimilarity from vaccine strain A/Michigan/45/2015, with subclades 6B.1A.5 and 6B.1A.2 identified. All B/Victoria-lineage viruses (n = 21) aligned with clade V1A.3, presenting triple amino acid deletions at positions 162-164 in the hemagglutinin protein, significantly diverging from the vaccine strain B/Colorado/06/2017. Multiple amino acid substitutions were also found in the internal proteins of influenza viruses, some of which have been previously reported in hospitalized influenza patients in Thailand. Notably, the oseltamivir-resistant marker H275Y was present in one immunocompromised patient infected with A/H1N1pdm09 and the resistance-related mutation I222V was detected in another A/H3N2-infected patient. CONCLUSIONS: Considering antigenic drift and the constant evolution of circulating A and B strains, we believe continuous monitoring of influenza viruses in NSW via the high-throughput sequencing approach provides timely and pivotal information for both public health surveillance and clinical treatment.

The economic costs of alcohol-related harms at the local level in New South Wales.

INTRODUCTION: Alcohol is a harmful, toxic and addictive substance that causes many diseases and injuries. Alcohol use also incurs a financial cost to the health care system and wider economy. This project aimed to undertake a cost impact analysis of alcohol-related harms at the local level in New South Wales (NSW). The alcohol-related harms costing model is an interactive tool designed for use by local health districts, stakeholders such as Liquor and Gaming NSW, NSW Independent Liquor and Gaming Authority and community stakeholders. METHODS: Costs included in the analysis were alcohol-related hospitalisations, deaths, crimes, emergency department attendances, outpatient presentations and their impacts on productivity. Two local government areas (LGA) were used as case studies to demonstrate local impacts. RESULTS: In 2019-2020, the total cost of alcohol-related harms for NSW was estimated at $9 billion, at a rate of $120.3 million per 100,000 population. The total costs were comprised of alcohol-attributable premature mortality ($8.3 billion), non-fatal health care costs ($275 million) and crime costs ($457 million). A comparative analysis of two case study LGAs estimated that alcohol-related harms cost $195 million for the Northern Beaches LGA and $351 million for the Central Coast LGA. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: This research has developed a 'proof-of-concept' model to estimate the cost of alcohol-related harms at the local level in Australia, empowering health agencies and local community stakeholders to use economic evidence in their submissions in response to new liquor licence applications and other policies that impact their local community. This economic evidence can be used to improve the quality of decisions on alcohol regulation and policies. There are a number of future research opportunities that would enhance the economic evidence available to liquor licensing decision-makers.

Serological evidence of exposure of healthy dogs to Leptospira in Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.

In 2017, highly fatal canine leptospirosis emerged in Sydney, Australia. Based on results of microscopic agglutination testing (MAT), serovar Copenhageni appeared to be the most common causative serovar. Prior to this, no clinical cases had been reported since 1976. In a serosurvey of healthy dogs in Australian shelters in 2004, 2.4% of 431 New South Wales dogs had serological evidence of exposure to Copenhageni, the most prevalent serovar. The aim of this study was to estimate the current prevalence of Leptospira exposure and associated serovars in healthy Sydney dogs, previously unvaccinated against Leptospira. Serum samples from 411 healthy dogs in leptospirosis hotspots and neighbouring suburbs were collected before vaccination. MAT for 23 serovars was performed at the WHO Leptospirosis Reference Laboratory in Queensland, Australia. The overall seroprevalence was 4.1% (17/411) with low titres (1/50-1/200) detected. Eleven dogs were from known leptospirosis hotspots. Eight dogs were known to hunt rodents. One dog had been in contact with a leptospirosis positive dog 1 year prior. Serovar Topaz was the most prevalent serovar (n = 5) followed by serovars Australis (n = 4), Copenhageni (n = 4), Djasiman (n = 2), Cynopteri (n = 1), Javanica (n = 1), Medanensis (n = 1), and Pomona (n = 1). In conclusion, serological evidence of exposure of dogs in Sydney to Leptospira is low, but apparently has increased since 2004. Positive titres to serovars not previously reported to cause disease in dogs could be due to low virulence of those serovars or cross-reactivity with other serovars.

Bushfire-smoke trigger hospital admissions with cerebrovascular diseases: Evidence from 2019-20 bushfire in Australia.

INTRODUCTION: Exposure to ambient air pollution is strongly associated with increased cerebrovascular diseases. The 2019-20 bushfire season in Australia burnt 5.4 million hectares of land in New South Wales alone, with smoke so severe it affected cities in Argentina, 11,000 km away. The smoke emitted by bushfires consists of both gaseous and particle components. It is important to note that exposure to particulate matter has been shown to be linked to a heightened risk of stroke, which is the primary kind of cerebrovascular illness, as well as an increased likelihood of hospitalisations and mortality. However, the available data is inadequate in terms of documenting the response of patients diagnosed with a proven cerebrovascular illness to bushfire smoke. Additionally, there is a lack of information about the health effects associated with particulate matter throughout the bushfire season and on days when smoke was present in 2019 and 2020.Therefore, we aimed to determine the effects of (i) short-term air pollution triggered by bushfires and (ii) high smoke days in increasing the daily number of hospital admissions with cerebrovascular diseases. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Hospitalisation data were accessed from the admitted patient dataset from seven local Government areas of Hunter New England Local Health District. The bushfire period was defined from 1 October 2019 to 10 February 2020, and a same period from 2018-19 as the control. High bushfire smoke days were days when the average daily concentration of particulate matter was higher than the 95th percentile of the control period. Poisson regression models and fixed effect meta-analysis were used to analyse the data. RESULTS: In total, 275 patients with cerebrovascular admissions were identified, with 147 (53.5%) during the bushfire (2019-20) and 128 (46.5%) in the control period (2018-19). There was no significant increase in daily admissions for cerebrovascular disease (Incidence Rate Ratio, IRR: 1.04; 95% CI: 0.81-1.34; p-value: 0.73), acute stroke (IRR: 1.15; 95% CI: 0.88-1.50; p-value: 0.29) or acute ischaemic stroke (IRR: 1.18; 95% CI: 0.87-1.59; p-value: 0.28), over the entire bushfire period. However, the high bushfire smoke days were associated with increased acute ischaemic stroke-related hospital admissions across lead 0-3 and the highest cumulative effect was observed with lead 0 (IRR:1.52; 95% CI: 1.01-2.29; p-value: 0.04). In addition, during the bushfire period, particulate matter, both PM10 and PM2.5 (defined as particulates that have an effective aerodynamic diameter of 10, and 2.5 microns, respectively), were also associated with increased acute ischaemic stroke admissions with a lag of 0-3 days. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: The results suggested a possible association between particulate matter and high smoke days with increased hospital admissions due to acute ischaemic stroke during the recent Australian bushfire season.

Estimating the Prevalence of Autism Spectrum Disorder in New South Wales, Australia: A Data Linkage Study of Three Routinely Collected Datasets.

Routinely collected data help estimate the prevalence of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) in jurisdictions without active autism surveillance. We created a population-based cohort of 1,211,834 children born in 2002-2015 in New South Wales, Australia using data linkage. Children with ASD were identified in three datasets - disability services, hospital admissions, and ambulatory mental health data. The prevalence of ASD in the cohort was 1.3% by age 12 and prevalence at age 6 increased an average of 4.1% per year (95% Confidence Interval, 3.3%, 4.8%). Most children with ASD were identified in disability services data (87%), although data linkage identified 1,711 additional cases that were more likely female, older at first contact, and living in major cities and less disadvantaged areas.

Pregnancy-associated gynecological cancer in New South Wales, Australia 1994-2013: A population-based historical cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Pregnancy-associated gynecological cancer (PAGC) refers to cancers of the ovary, uterus, fallopian tube, cervix, vagina, and vulva diagnosed during pregnancy or within 12 months postpartum. We aimed to describe the incidence of, and perinatal outcomes associated with, invasive pregnancy-associated gynecological cancer. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We conducted a population-based historical cohort study using linked data from New South Wales, Australia. We included all women who gave birth between 1994 and 2013, with a follow-up period extending to September 30, 2018. Three groups were analyzed: a gestational PAGC group (women diagnosed during pregnancy), a postpartum PAGC group (women diagnosed within 1 year of giving birth), and a control group (women with control diagnosis during pregnancy or within 1 year of giving birth). We used generalized estimation equations to compare perinatal outcomes between study groups. RESULTS: There were 1 786 137 deliveries during the study period; 70 women were diagnosed with gestational PAGC and 191 with postpartum PAGC. The incidence of PAGC was 14.6/100 000 deliveries and did not change during the study period. Women with gestational PAGC (adjusted odds ratio [aAOR] 6.81, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.97-15.62) and with postpartum PAGC (aOR 2.65, 95% CI 1.25-5.61) had significantly increased odds of a severe maternal morbidity outcome compared with the control group. Babies born to women with gestational PAGC were more likely to be born preterm (aOR 3.11, 95% CI 1.47-6.59) and were at increased odds of severe neonatal complications (aOR 3.47, 95% CI 1.45-8.31) compared with babies born to women without PAC. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of PAGC has not increased over time perhaps reflecting, in part, the effectiveness of cervical screening and early impacts of human papillomavirus vaccination programs in Australia. The higher rate of preterm birth among the gestational PAGC group is associated with adverse outcomes in babies born to these women.