Progress Toward Poliomyelitis Eradication - Worldwide, January 2022-December 2023.

In 1988, poliomyelitis (polio) was targeted for eradication. Global efforts have led to the eradication of two of the three wild poliovirus (WPV) serotypes (types 2 and 3), with only WPV type 1 (WPV1) remaining endemic, and only in Afghanistan and Pakistan. This report describes global polio immunization, surveillance activities, and poliovirus epidemiology during January 2022-December 2023, using data current as of April 10, 2024. In 2023, Afghanistan and Pakistan identified 12 total WPV1 polio cases, compared with 22 in 2022. WPV1 transmission was detected through systematic testing for poliovirus in sewage samples (environmental surveillance) in 13 provinces in Afghanistan and Pakistan, compared with seven provinces in 2022. The number of polio cases caused by circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses (cVDPVs; circulating vaccine virus strains that have reverted to neurovirulence) decreased from 881 in 2022 to 524 in 2023; cVDPV outbreaks (defined as either a cVDPV case with evidence of circulation or at least two positive environmental surveillance isolates) occurred in 32 countries in 2023, including eight that did not experience a cVDPV outbreak in 2022. Despite reductions in paralytic polio cases from 2022, cVDPV cases and WPV1 cases (in countries with endemic transmission) were more geographically widespread in 2023. Renewed efforts to vaccinate persistently missed children in countries and territories where WPV1 transmission is endemic, strengthen routine immunization programs in countries at high risk for poliovirus transmission, and provide more effective cVDPV outbreak responses are necessary to further progress toward global polio eradication.

Building confidence in the COVID-19 vaccine in a polio-endemic country: strategic communication lessons from Pakistan.

In a health emergency, governments rely on public trust in their policy, and anticipate its compliance to protect health and save lives. Vaccine hesitancy compromises this process when an emergency involves infections. The prevailing discourse on vaccine hesitancy often describes it as a static phenomenon, ignoring its expanse and complexity, and neglecting the exploration of tools to address it. This article diverges from the conventional perspective by explaining the case of Pakistan and its communication strategy for the COVID-19 vaccine. Decades of polio vaccine hesitancy, rooted in the country's fight against terrorism, constitute its history. On the other hand, the first-ever launch of typhoid conjugate vaccine involving 35 million kids during 2019-2021 was a success. Against this backdrop, the country considered vaccine hesitancy as a dynamic phenomenon, interwoven with the social ecology and the responsiveness of the healthcare system. Its communication strategy facilitated those willing to receive the vaccine, while being responsive to the information needs of those still in the decision-making process. In the face of both hesitancy and a scarcity of vaccine doses, the country successfully inoculated nearly 70% (160 million) of its population in just over 1 year. People's perceptions about the COVID-19 vaccine also improved over time. This achievement offers valuable insights and tools for policymakers and strategists focused on the demand side of vaccine programmes. The lessons can significantly contribute to the global discourse on improving vaccine confidence and bolstering global health security.

Exploring the path to polio eradication: insights from consecutive seroprevalence surveys among Pakistani children.

Introduction: After trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine (tOPV) cessation, Pakistan has maintained immunity to type 2 poliovirus by administering inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) in routine immunization, alongside monovalent OPV type 2 (mOPV2) and IPV in supplementary immunization activities (SIAs). This study assesses the change in poliovirus type 2 immunity after tOPV withdrawal and due to SIAs with mOPV2 and IPV among children aged 6-11 months. Methods: Three cross-sectional sequential serological surveys were conducted in 12 polio high-risk areas of Pakistan. 25 clusters from each geographical stratum were selected utilizing probability proportional to size. Results: Seroprevalence of type 2 poliovirus was 49%, with significant variation observed among surveyed areas; <30% in Pishin, >80% in Killa Abdullah, Mardan & Swabi, and Rawalpindi. SIAs with IPV improved immunity from 38 to 57% in Karachi and 60 to 88% in Khyber. SIAs with IPV following mOPV2 improved immunity from 62 to 65% in Killa Abdullah, and combined mOPV2 and IPV SIAs in Pishin improved immunity from 28 to 89%. Results also reflected that immunity rates for serotypes 1 and 3 were consistently above 90% during all three phases and across all geographical areas. Conclusion: The study findings highlight the importance of implementing effective vaccination strategies to prevent the re-emergence of poliovirus. Moreover, the results provide crucial information for policymakers working toward achieving global polio eradication.

Monitoring the evolution of vaccine-derived poliovirus in East and Southern African countries, 2010 - 2021.

Introduction: the Africa region was certified indigenous wild poliovirus-free in August 2020. Countries in East and Southern Africa have, during acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) and environmental surveillance (ES), detected equally concerning vaccine-derived polioviruses (VDPVs) that have not been systematically documented to guide programming in the sub-region. The study documents trends and salient observations of the VDPVs by country of detection, for 11 years from 2010 to 2021. Methods: we conducted secondary data analysis, a descriptive study design, by deploying field and laboratory of AFP and environmental surveillance databases of the 20 East and Southern African countries from 2010 to 2021. Results: a total of 318 VDPVs were reported over the study period. The majority were from AFP cases (58.8%) and the rest equally distributed between healthy community children and environmental surveillance sources. More polioviruses were detected after 2016 than during the period before. We observed that more boys were affected by VDPVs compared to girls. Children under 5 years were more affected than other age groups, with a mean age of 3.6 years. Delay of samples in the field seemed to increase the likelihood of not reporting VDPVs and not mounting timely public health detailed investigations and vaccination responses. Conclusion: the study provides useful evolutional trends of VDPVs for surveillance and vaccination programming. We also noted that the VDPV2s have been increasing after the 2016 tOPV to oral polio vaccine (bOPV) switch. The COVID-19 pandemic emergence in 2020, led to a decline in AFP, ES surveillance, and immunization activities. Our findings point to the need to implement enhanced tailored childhood immunization recovery strategies and to speed up the use of inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) to boost population immunity.

Surveillance To Track Progress Toward Polio Eradication - Worldwide, 2022-2023.

The reliable and timely detection of poliovirus cases through surveillance for acute flaccid paralysis (AFP), supplemented by environmental surveillance of sewage samples, is a critical component of the polio eradication program. Since 1988, the number of polio cases caused by wild poliovirus (WPV) has declined by >99.9%, and eradication of WPV serotypes 2 and 3 has been certified; only serotype 1 (WPV1) continues to circulate, and transmission remains endemic in Afghanistan and Pakistan. This surveillance update evaluated indicators from AFP surveillance, environmental surveillance for polioviruses, and Global Polio Laboratory Network performance data provided by 28 priority countries for the program during 2022-2023. No WPV1 cases have been detected outside of Afghanistan and Pakistan since August 2022, when an importation into Malawi and Mozambique resulted in an outbreak during 2021-2022. During 2022-2023, among 28 priority countries, 20 (71.4%) met national AFP surveillance indicator targets, and the number of environmental surveillance sites increased. However, low national rates of reported AFP cases in priority countries in 2023 might have resulted from surveillance reporting lags; substantial national and subnational AFP surveillance gaps persist. Maintaining high-quality surveillance is critical to achieving the goal of global polio eradication. Monitoring surveillance indicators is important to identifying gaps and guiding surveillance-strengthening activities, particularly in countries at high risk for poliovirus circulation.

Poliomyelitis and COVID-19: a repeated history.

The measurement of the enterovirus and the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in sewage water is relevant in the early detection of the introduction or disappearance of these viruses in the ecosystem. We evaluated the co-circulation of the enteroviruses and SARS-CoV-2 in 81 sewage water samples collected between September 2021 and April 2023 from different regions of north and southeast Romania, at the border with Ukraine. We used, for the molecular detection of the pathogens, the multiplex real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay produced for respiratory samples and the Respiratory 2.1 Plus panel Biofire Film array. The isolation of enteroviruses was performed on cell culture lines, in accordance with the World Health Organization (WHO) recommendations. By molecular investigations, we detected the SARS-CoV-2 in 22 (27%) samples, and the human rhinovirus/enterovirus in 64 (79%) samples. By isolation on cell culture lines, 27 samples (33,33%) were positive for non-polio enteroviruses, and no poliovirus strains were isolated, proving the maintenance of the polio-free status in Romania. In an emergency situation, the molecular detection of the pathogens in sewage water using a PCR system integrating sample preparation, amplification, detection, and analysis in 1 h could be implemented.

Occurrence of poliovirus and non-polio enterovirus among children with acute flaccid paralysis in Cameroon from 2015 to 2020.

INTRODUCTION: Poliovirus (PV) and non-polio enteroviruses (NPEV) belong to the Picornaviridae family. They are found worldwide and are responsible for a wide range of diseases such as acute flaccid paralysis (AFP). This study aimed to evaluate the detection rate of PV and NPEV in stool samples from children under fifteen years of age presenting with AFP in Cameroon and their distribution over time. METHODOLOGY: Stool samples were collected as part of poliovirus surveillance throughout Cameroon from 2015 to 2020. Virus isolation was performed using RD and L20B cells maintained in culture. Molecular methods such as intratypic differentiation were used to identify PVs serotypes and analysis of the VP1 genome was performed. RESULTS: A total of 12,354 stool samples were analyzed. The EV detection rate by virus isolation was 11.42% (1411/12354). This rate varied from year to year with a mean distribution of 11.41 with a 95% confidence interval [11.37; 11.44]. Of the viruses detected, suspected poliovirus accounted for 31.3% (442/1411) and NPEV 68.67% (969/1411). No wild poliovirus (WPV) was isolated. Sabin types 1 and 3 were continuously isolated. Surprisingly, from February 2020, vaccine-derived PV type 2 (VDPV2) was detected in 19% of cases, indicating its resurgence. CONCLUSIONS: This study strongly supports the successful elimination of WPV in Cameroon and the resurgence of VDPV2. However, as long as VDPV outbreaks continue to be detected in Africa, it remains essential to monitor how they spread.

[Eradication of poliomyelitis in Spain: What has happened in the last decade?] / Erradicación de la poliomielitis en España: ¿qué ha pasado en la última década?

On the 60th anniversary of the initiation of the polio vaccination campaign in Spain, the significant milestone in achieving disease control is highlighted. There has been a shift from an incidence of over 2,000 yearly cases in the 1960s to a sustained absence of wild poliovirus (WPV) since 1988. Despite the observed negative impact on polio vaccination coverage at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, these rates gradually recovered, reaching 98.2% in primary vaccination in 2022. Over the past decade, two essential elements have been identified to maintain the goal of polio elimination and that reinforces the importance of sustaining high vaccination coverage: robust epidemiological surveillance systems and a swift response to alerts to protect the vulnerable population and prevent virus reintroduction. In order to achieve eradication, it is crucial to interrupt international transmission and maintain continuous high-quality surveillance and effective coordination across different levels in response to any detection of PV, wild or vaccine derived. This article aimed to provide a comprehensive view of the polio eradication situation in Spain, focusing on the key events that occurred in the last decade and the present and future challenges.

hito en el control de la enfermedad que ha supuesto el cambio desde una incidencia de más de 2.000 casos anuales en la década de los 60 a una ausencia mantenida de poliovirus (PV) salvaje desde 1988. A pesar del impacto negativo observado en las coberturas de vacunación de poliomielitis al inicio de la pandemia de la COVID-19, estas se fueron recuperando, alcanzando un 98,2% en la primovacunación en 2022. En la última década se han identificado dos elementos esenciales para mantener el objetivo de eliminación de la poliomielitis y que, además, refuerzan la importancia de mantener altas coberturas de vacunación: los sistemas de vigilancia epidemiológica robustos y la respuesta rápida a las alertas para proteger a la población vulnerable y evitar la circulación del virus. Es crucial interrumpir la transmisión a nivel internacional para lograr la erradicación, manteniendo una vigilancia continua de alta calidad y una coordinación efectiva entre los diferentes niveles frente a cualquier detección de PV, ya sea salvaje o derivado de la vacuna. Este artículo tuvo como objetivo proporcionar una visión integral sobre la situación de erradicación de la poliomielitis en España, centrándose en los eventos clave ocurridos en la última década y en los retos presentes y futuros.

Circulating vaccine derived polio virus type 2 outbreak and response in Yemen, 2021-2022, a retrospective descriptive analysis.

BACKGROUND: The outbreaks of circulating Vaccine Derived Polio Viruses (cVDPVs) have emerged as a major challenge for the final stage of polio eradication. In Yemen, an explosive outbreak of cVDPV2 was reported from August 2021 to December 2022. This study aims to compare the patterns of cVDPV2 outbreak, response measures taken by health authorities, and impacts in southern and northern governorates. METHOD: A retrospective descriptive study of confirmed cases of VDPV2 was performed. The data related to cVDPV2 as well as stool specimens and environmental samples that were shipped to WHO-accredited labs were collected by staff of surveillance. Frequencies and percentages were used to characterize and compare the confirmed cases from the southern and northern governorates. The average delayed time as a difference in days between the date of sample collection and lab confirmation was calculated. RESULTS: The cVDPV2 was isolated from 227 AFP cases reported from 19/23 Yemeni governorates and from 83% (39/47) of environmental samples with an average of 7 months delayed from sample collection. However, the non-polio AFP (NPAFP) and adequate stool specimen rates in the north were 6.7 and 87% compared to 6.4 and 87% in the south, 86% (195) and 14%(32) out of the total 227 confirmed cases were detected from northern and southern governorates, respectively. The first and second cases of genetically linked isolates experienced paralysis onset on 30 August and 1st September 2021. They respectively were from Taiz and Marib governorates ruled by southern authorities that started vaccination campaigns as a response in February 2022. Thus, in contrast to 2021, the detected cases in 2022 from the total cases detected in the south were lower accounting for 22% (7 of 32) of compared to 79% (155 of 195) of the total cases the north. CONCLUSION: A new emerging cVDPV2 was confirmed in Yemen. The result of this study highlighted the impact of vaccination campaigns in containing the cVDPV2 outbreak. Maintaining a high level of immunization coverage and switching to nOPV2 instead of tOPV and mOPV2 in campaigns are recommended and environmental surveillance should be expanded in such a risky country.

Safety of the novel oral poliovirus vaccine type 2 (nOPV2) in infants and young children aged 1 to <5 years and lot-to-lot consistency of the immune response to nOPV2 in infants in The Gambia: a phase 3, double-blind, randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Novel oral poliovirus vaccine type 2 (nOPV2) has been engineered to improve the genetic stability of Sabin oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) and reduce the emergence of circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses. This trial aimed to provide key safety and immunogenicity data required for nOPV2 licensure and WHO prequalification. METHODS: This phase 3 trial recruited infants aged 18 to <52 weeks and young children aged 1 to <5 years in The Gambia. Infants randomly assigned to receive one or two doses of one of three lots of nOPV2 or one lot of bivalent OPV (bOPV). Young children were randomised to receive two doses of nOPV2 lot 1 or bOPV. The primary immunogenicity objective was to assess lot-to-lot equivalence of the three nOPV2 lots based on one-dose type 2 poliovirus neutralising antibody seroconversion rates in infants. Equivalence was declared if the 95% CI for the three pairwise rate differences was within the -10% to 10% equivalence margin. Tolerability and safety were assessed based on the rates of solicited adverse events to 7 days, unsolicited adverse events to 28 days, and serious adverse events to 3 months post-dose. Stool poliovirus excretion was examined. The trial was registered as PACTR202010705577776 and is completed. FINDINGS: Between February and October, 2021, 2345 infants and 600 young children were vaccinated. 2272 (96·9%) were eligible for inclusion in the post-dose one per-protocol population. Seroconversion rates ranged from 48·9% to 49·2% across the three lots. The minimum lower bound of the 95% CIs for the pairwise differences in seroconversion rates between lots was -5·8%. The maximum upper bound was 5·4%. Equivalence was therefore shown. Of those seronegative at baseline, 143 (85·6%) of 167 (95% CI 79·4-90·6) infants and 54 (83·1%) of 65 (71·7-91·2) young children seroconverted over the two-dose nOPV2 schedule. The post-two-dose seroprotection rates, including participants who were both seronegative and seropositive at baseline, were 604 (92·9%) of 650 (95% CI 90·7-94·8) in infants and 276 (95·5%) of 289 (92·4-97·6) in young children. No safety concerns were identified. 7 days post-dose one, 78 (41·7%) of 187 (95% CI 34·6-49·1) infants were excreting the type 2 poliovirus. INTERPRETATION: nOPV2 was immunogenic and safe in infants and young children in The Gambia. The data support the licensure and WHO prequalification of nOPV2. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

[Compassionate culture in addressing polio in healthcare settings. The spanish case (1940-1970)]. / La cultura compasiva en el abordaje de la poliomielitis en entornos sanitarios. El caso español (1940-1970).

The presence of epidemic outbreaks of poliomyelitis in the initial and central decades of the last century constituted an important Public Health problem due to the absence of effective treatments because it preferentially affected children, in environments with acceptable levels of health, and the fear of the paralytic sequelae. This work attempted to reconstruct some of the responses that were given in the Spanish state, both in professional health settings and from alternative heterodox approaches such as the Kenny method, taking as a reference axis the compassionate culture that was behind the development of the measures. adopted and their critical analysis, in the period before the implementation of anti-polio vaccines.

La presencia de brotes epidémicos de poliomielitis en las décadas iniciales y centrales del siglo pasado constituyó un importante problema de Salud Pública, debido a la ausencia de tratamientos eficaces, por afectar de forma preferente a edades infantiles, en entornos con niveles aceptables de salubridad y por las temibles secuelas paralíticas. En este trabajo se intentan reconstruir algunas de las respuestas que se dieron en el estado español, tanto en los ámbitos profesionales sanitarios como desde planteamientos heterodoxos alternativos como el método Kenny, tomando como eje de referencia la cultura compasiva que estuvo detrás del desarrollo de las medidas adoptadas, así como su análisis crítico, en el periodo anterior a la puesta en marcha de las vacunas antipoliomielíticas.

Evaluation of the environmental polio surveillance system-Northern Region, Ghana, 2021.

BACKGROUND: Acute Flaccid Paralysis (AFP) surveillance is the gold standard in the polio eradication initiative. The environmental component of polio surveillance can detect circulating Polioviruses from sewage without relying on clinical presentation. The effectiveness of the Environmental Surveillance (ES) is crucial to global polio eradication. We assessed the usefulness and attributes of the ES system in the Northern region and determined if the system is meeting its objectives. METHODS: We conducted a descriptive cross-sectional evaluation in the Northern region from 2019 to 2020 using the updated US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guideline. We interviewed stakeholders, reviewed records, and observed surveillance activities from 29th March to 7th May, 2021. Quantitative data were analyzed manually as frequencies and proportions whiles thematic analysis was used for the qualitative data. RESULTS: One of 48 (2.1%) samples collected tested positive for circulating vaccine-derived Poliovirus (cVDPV). The cVDPV detection triggered enhanced AFP surveillance that resulted in the identification of a case of AFP. Three rounds of polio vaccination campaigns were organized. All surveillance officers interviewed were willing to continue providing their services for the ES. Reporting form has few variables and is easy to complete. The completeness of forms was 97.9% (47/48). Samples collected were dispatched on the same day to the testing laboratory. The system's data was managed manually. CONCLUSION: The system was useful in detecting polio outbreaks. Data quality was good, the system was simple, flexible, acceptable, representative, and fairly stable. Sensitivity was high but predictive value positive was low. Timeliness in reporting was good but feedback from the national level could not be assessed. There is a need to improve on the feedback system and ensure that, the surveillance data is managed electronically.

2022 Polio outbreak, Rockland County, NY: Cost evaluation of strategies to prevent future outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases.

In 1994, the World Health Organization Region of the Americas was declared polio-free. In July 2022, a confirmed case of paralytic polio in an unvaccinated adult resident of Rockland County, New York was reported by the New York State Department of Health (NYSDOH) and Rockland County Department of Health (RCDOH). While only one case was identified, a single case of paralytic polio represents a public health emergency in the United States. The patient's county of residence was identified to have low vaccination coverage indicating that the community was at risk for additional cases. Disease outbreaks are resource-intensive and incur high costs to the patient, local health departments, and to society. These costs are potentially avoidable for vaccine-preventable diseases and thus, highlight the urgency to not only interrupt transmission but to prevent future vaccine-preventable disease outbreaks by improving vaccination coverage. Following case confirmation, an investigation and response was initiated by NYSDOH, along with local health departments and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). After the initial investigation and response, collaborative efforts to mitigate risk and strengthen routine immunization continued, which included provider outreach and immunization record assessments of Head Start and licensed childcare facilities (primarily those with missing or incomplete required vaccination coverage reports from the previous year) in Rockland County. We estimated the costs of (1) provider outreach and (2) childcare and pre-kindergarten immunization record assessments of select licensed childcare and Head Start facilities in Rockland County. The total labor cost incurred for these activities was $138,514 with a total of 2,555 h incurred. Often there are unique opportunities in the midst of an outbreak for public health to implement activities to proactively address low vaccination and strengthen vaccination coverage and possibly prevent future outbreaks. Understanding the cost of these activities might help inform future outbreak planning.

Serological investigation on the prevalence of poliovirus in Guangdong province: A cross-sectional study.

In 2019, we conducted a cross-sectional study for polio virus seroprevalence in Guangdong province, China. We assessed the positivity rates of poliomyelitis NA and GMT in serum across various demographic groups, and the current findings were compared with pre-switch data from 2014. Using multistage random sampling method, four counties/districts were randomly selected per city, and within each, one general hospital and two township hospitals were chosen. Healthy individuals coming for medical checkups or vaccination were invited. A total of 1318 individual samples were collected and tested. In non-newborn population, age-dependent positivity rates ranged from 77.8% to 100% for PV1 NA and 70.3% to 98.9% for PV3 NA (p < .01). The lowest GMT values for both types (17.03 and 8.46) occurred in the 20 to <30 years age group, while peak GMTs for PV1 and PV3 were observed in 1 to <2 (340.14) and 0 to <1-year (168.90) age groups, respectively. GMTs for PV1 (P = .002) and PV3 (P = .007) in Eastern Guangdong were lower than those in the other three regions. Male participants showed higher GMTs than females (P = .016 and .033, respectively). In newborn population, both males and females showed higher PV1 NA positivity rates and GMTs compared to PV3 (p < .05). Post-switch PV3 NA positivity rates were higher than pre-switch rates (p = .016). GMTs of both PV1 and PV3 were significantly higher post-switch (p < .001). The positivity rates of NAs and GMTs remain high level, which play an important role in resisting poliomyelitis infection. Effect of the converted immunization program was more pronounced than that before.

Evaluation of 17 years of MERIN (Meningitis and Encephalitis register in Lower Saxony, Germany) surveillance system: participants acceptability survey, completeness and timeliness of data.

BACKGROUND: A Meningitis and Encephalitis Surveillance (MERIN) was implemented in 2003 in Lower Saxony, Germany as an alternative to acute flaccid paralyses surveillance, as the latter did not reach WHO sensitivity criteria. The system provides information on circulating enterovirus (EV) serotypes by focussing on patients with suspected aseptic meningitis, encephalitis or acute flaccid paralysis and contributes to the national surveillance in documenting polio free status. MERIN is based on voluntary participation of hospitals. Therefore, our evaluation focusses on acceptability of the system's objectives and performance, and identifying areas for improvement. METHODS: To assess acceptability, 32 contributing hospitals were invited to an online-based survey (11/2021 to 01/2022) to rate the MERIN objectives, laboratory's performance, their workload, modes of processes and communication. Ideas for improvement were collected in open fields. In addition, data completeness and timeliness of laboratory diagnostics were assessed. RESULTS: Of 32 hospitals, 21 responded (66% response rate), sending 30 questionnaires, 25 from pediatric and 5 from neurological departments. High levels of satisfaction with the communication (≥ 96%), timeliness (≥ 81%), and distribution of the results (≥ 85%) were reported, 97% of participants judged the required workload as adequate. The median proportion of eligible patients included in MERIN was 75%. Participants gave rapid and reliable diagnostic testing the highest priority (96%), while monitoring of Germany's polio-free status was rated the lowest (61%). Providing medical reports digitally as well as regular updates about circulating EV serotypes were identified as areas for improvement. Data completeness of selected variables ranged from 78.3 to 99.9%. Median time between sample collection and arrival at laboratory was 2 days [IQR 1-3], EV diagnostics via PCR took one day [IQR 0-6] and EV isolation on cell culture 11 days [IQR 10-13]. CONCLUSION: MERIN is a highly accepted surveillance system. Its quality was enhanced further by addressing the suggested improvements such as regular reports on circulating EV serotypes and facilitating digital access to laboratory results. Our results emphasise the importance of recognizing and considering participants' motivations and expectations, and addressing their priorities, even if this is not the surveillance system's main focus. This approach can be applied to surveillance systems of other non-mandatory notifiable diseases.

Modeling undetected poliovirus circulation following the 2022 outbreak in the United States.

BACKGROUND: New York State (NYS) reported a polio case (June 2022) and outbreak of imported type 2 circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV2) (last positive wastewater detection in February 2023), for which uncertainty remains about potential ongoing undetected transmission. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Extending a prior deterministic model, we apply an established stochastic modeling approach to characterize the confidence about no circulation (CNC) of cVDPV2 as a function of time since the last detected signal of transmission (i.e. poliovirus positive acute flaccid myelitis case or wastewater sample). RESULTS: With the surveillance coverage for the NYS population majority and its focus on outbreak counties, modeling suggests a high CNC (95%) within 3-10 months of the last positive surveillance signal, depending on surveillance sensitivity and population mixing patterns. Uncertainty about surveillance sensitivity implies longer durations required to achieve higher CNC. CONCLUSIONS: In populations that maintain high overall immunization coverage with inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV), rare polio cases may occur in un(der)-vaccinated individuals. Modeling demonstrates the unlikeliness of type 2 outbreaks reestablishing endemic transmission or resulting in large absolute numbers of paralytic cases. Achieving and maintaining high immunization coverage with IPV remains the most effective measure to prevent outbreaks and shorten the duration of imported poliovirus transmission.

Non-Polio Enteroviruses Isolated by Acute Flaccid Paralysis Surveillance Laboratories in the Russian Federation in 1998-2021: Distinct Epidemiological Features of Types.

More than 100 types of non-polio enteroviruses (NPEVs) are ubiquitous in the human population and cause a variety of symptoms ranging from very mild to meningitis and acute flaccid paralysis (AFP). Much of the information regarding diverse pathogenic properties of NPEVs comes from the surveillance of poliovirus, which also yields NPEV. The analysis of 265 NPEV isolations from 10,433 AFP cases over 24 years of surveillance and more than 2500 NPEV findings in patients without severe neurological lesions suggests that types EV-A71, E13, and E25 were significantly associated with AFP. EV-A71 was also significantly more common among AFP patients who had fever at the onset and residual paralysis compared to all AFP cases. In addition, a significant disparity was noticed between types that were common in humans (CV-A2, CVA9, EV-A71, E9, and E30) or in sewage (CVA7, E3, E7, E11, E12, and E19). Therefore, there is significant evidence of non-polio viruses being implicated in severe neurological lesions, but further multicenter studies using uniform methodology are needed for a definitive conclusion.

Trade-offs of different poliovirus vaccine options for outbreak response in the United States and other countries that only use inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) in routine immunization.

Delays in achieving polio eradication have led to ongoing risks of poliovirus importations that may cause outbreaks in polio-free countries. Because of the low, but non-zero risk of paralysis with oral poliovirus vaccines (OPVs), countries that achieve and maintain high national routine immunization coverage have increasingly shifted to exclusive use of inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) for all preventive immunizations. However, immunization coverage within countries varies, with under-vaccinated subpopulations potentially able to sustain transmission of imported polioviruses and experience local outbreaks. Due to its cost, ease-of-use, and ability to induce mucosal immunity, using OPV as an outbreak control measure offers a more cost-effective option in countries in which OPV remains in use. However, recent polio outbreaks in IPV-only countries raise questions about whether and when IPV use for outbreak response may fail to stop poliovirus transmission and what consequences may follow from using OPV for outbreak response in these countries. We systematically reviewed the literature to identify modeling studies that explored the use of IPV for outbreak response in IPV-only countries. In addition, applying a model of the 2022 type 2 poliovirus outbreak in New York, we characterized the implications of using different OPV formulations for outbreak response instead of IPV. We also explored the hypothetical scenario of the same outbreak except for type 1 poliovirus instead of type 2. We find that using IPV for outbreak response will likely only stop outbreaks for polioviruses of relatively low transmission potential in countries with very high overall immunization coverage, seasonal transmission dynamics, and only if IPV immunization interventions reach some unvaccinated individuals. Using OPV for outbreak response in IPV-only countries poses substantial risks and challenges that require careful consideration, but may represent an option to consider for some outbreaks in some populations depending on the properties of the available vaccines and coverage attainable.