Navigating optimal treaty-shopping routes using a multiplex network model.

The international tax treaty system is a highly integrated and complex network. In this system, many multinational enterprises (MNEs) explore ways of reducing taxes by choosing optimal detour routes. Treaty abuse by these MNEs causes significant loss of tax revenues for many countries, but there is no systematic way of regulating their actions. However, it may be helpful to find a way of detecting the optimal routes by which MNEs avoid taxes and observe the effects of this behavior. In this paper, we investigate the international tax treaty network system of foreign investment channels based on real data and introduce a novel measure of tax-routing centrality and other centralities via network analysis. Our analysis of tax routing in a multiplex network reveals not only various tax-minimizing routes and their rates, but also new paths which cannot be found by navigating a single network layer. In addition, we identify strongly connected components of the multiplex tax treaty system with minimal tax shopping routes; more than 80 countries are included in this system. This means that there are far more pathways to be observed than can be detected on any given individual single layer. We provide a unified framework for analyzing the international tax treaty system and observing the effects of tax avoidance by MNEs.

The Mexico SimSmoke tobacco control policy model: Development of a simulation model of daily and nondaily cigarette smoking.

BACKGROUND: Nondaily smoking has been on the rise, especially in Mexico. While Mexico has strengthened its tobacco control policies, their effects on nondaily smokers have gone largely unexamined. We developed a simulation model to estimate the impact of tobacco control policies on daily and nondaily smoking in Mexico. METHODS: A previously validated Mexico SimSmoke model that estimated overall trends in smoking prevalence from 2002 through 2013 was extended to 2018 and adapted to distinguish daily and nondaily smoking prevalence. The model was then validated using data from Mexican surveys through 2016. To gauge the potential effects of policies, we compared the trends in smoking under current policies with trends from policies kept at their 2002 levels. RESULTS: Between 2002 and 2016, Mexico SimSmoke underestimated the reduction in male and female daily smoking rates. For nondaily smoking, SimSmoke predicted a decline among both males and females, while survey rates showed increasing rates in both genders, primarily among ages 15-44. Of the total reduction in smoking rates predicted by the model by 2018, tax policies account for more than 55%, followed by health warnings, cessation treatment, smoke-free air laws, and tobacco control spending. CONCLUSIONS: Although Mexico SimSmoke did not successfully explain trends in daily and nondaily smoking, it helps to identify gaps in surveillance and policy evaluation for nondaily smokers. Future research should consider appropriate measures of nondaily smoking prevalence, trajectories between daily and nondaily smoking, and the separate impact of tobacco control policies on each group.

Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of smoking tobacco use and initiation among young people in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019.

BACKGROUND: Universally, smoking cessation rates among established smokers are poor. Preventing young people from starting use of and becoming addicted to tobacco products remains a key strategy to end the tobacco epidemic. Previous country-specific studies have found that initiation of smoking tobacco use occurs predominantly among young people and have found mixed progress in reducing the prevalence of smoking tobacco use among young people. Current and comparable estimates for all countries are needed to inform targeted interventions and policies. METHODS: We modelled two indicators: prevalence of current smoking tobacco use among young adults aged 15-24 years, and the age at which current smokers aged 20-54 years in 2019 began smoking regularly. We synthesised data from 3625 nationally representative surveys on prevalence of smoking and 254 on age at initiation. We used spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression to produce estimates of the prevalence of smoking and age of initiation by sex, for 204 countries and territories for each year between 1990 and 2019. FINDINGS: Globally in 2019, an estimated 155 million (95% uncertainty interval 150-160) individuals aged 15-24 years were tobacco smokers, with a prevalence of 20·1% (19·4-20·8) among males and 4·95% (4·64-5·29) among females. We estimated that 82·6% (82·1-83·1) of current smokers initiated between ages 14 and 25 years, and that 18·5% (17·7-19·3) of smokers began smoking regularly by age 15 years. Although some countries have made substantial progress in reducing the prevalence of smoking tobacco use among young people, prevalence in 2019 still exceeds 20% among males aged 15-24 years in 120 countries and among females aged 15-24 years in 43 countries. INTERPRETATION: The fact that most smokers start smoking regularly before age 20 years highlights the unique window of opportunity to target prevention efforts among young people and save millions of lives and avert health-care costs in the future. Countries can substantially improve the health of their populations by implementing and enforcing evidence-based tobacco control policies that prevent the next generation from initiating smoking. FUNDING: Bloomberg Philanthropies.

Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of chewing tobacco use in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

BACKGROUND: Chewing tobacco and other types of smokeless tobacco use have had less attention from the global health community than smoked tobacco use. However, the practice is popular in many parts of the world and has been linked to several adverse health outcomes. Understanding trends in prevalence with age, over time, and by location and sex is important for policy setting and in relation to monitoring and assessing commitment to the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control. METHODS: We estimated prevalence of chewing tobacco use as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 using a modelling strategy that used information on multiple types of smokeless tobacco products. We generated a time series of prevalence of chewing tobacco use among individuals aged 15 years and older from 1990 to 2019 in 204 countries and territories, including age-sex specific estimates. We also compared these trends to those of smoked tobacco over the same time period. FINDINGS: In 2019, 273·9 million (95% uncertainty interval 258·5 to 290·9) people aged 15 years and older used chewing tobacco, and the global age-standardised prevalence of chewing tobacco use was 4·72% (4·46 to 5·01). 228·2 million (213·6 to 244·7; 83·29% [82·15 to 84·42]) chewing tobacco users lived in the south Asia region. Prevalence among young people aged 15-19 years was over 10% in seven locations in 2019. Although global age-standardised prevalence of smoking tobacco use decreased significantly between 1990 and 2019 (annualised rate of change: -1·21% [-1·26 to -1·16]), similar progress was not observed for chewing tobacco (0·46% [0·13 to 0·79]). Among the 12 highest prevalence countries (Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, India, Madagascar, Marshall Islands, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Palau, Sri Lanka, and Yemen), only Yemen had a significant decrease in the prevalence of chewing tobacco use, which was among males between 1990 and 2019 (-0·94% [-1·72 to -0·14]), compared with nine of 12 countries that had significant decreases in the prevalence of smoking tobacco. Among females, none of these 12 countries had significant decreases in prevalence of chewing tobacco use, whereas seven of 12 countries had a significant decrease in the prevalence of tobacco smoking use for the period. INTERPRETATION: Chewing tobacco remains a substantial public health problem in several regions of the world, and predominantly in south Asia. We found little change in the prevalence of chewing tobacco use between 1990 and 2019, and that control efforts have had much larger effects on the prevalence of smoking tobacco use than on chewing tobacco use in some countries. Mitigating the health effects of chewing tobacco requires stronger regulations and policies that specifically target use of chewing tobacco, especially in countries with high prevalence. FUNDING: Bloomberg Philanthropies and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

[Association of Annual Transition of Implementation of Nonsmoking at Eating and Drinking Establishments with Indices on Population/Household and Economy/Labor: Examination Using Prefectural Data].

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to clarify the relationship of the annual transition of implementation of nonsmoking at eating and drinking establishments with indices of population/household and economy/labor by prefecture. METHODS: The prefectural rates of eating and drinking establishments implementing nonsmoking (hereafter, nonsmoking rate) were computed in a year using the data from "Tabelog®". Forty-seven prefectures were classified by hierarchical cluster analysis into "prefecture clusters" 1 to 5 in descending order of the median of nonsmoking rates. The indices of population/household (e.g., percentage of the population aged 65 years and over and percentage of nuclear family household) and economy/labor (e.g., prefectural income per capita and percentage of construction and mining workers) were classified by hierarchical cluster analysis into 11 "index clusters", and the representative index in each index cluster was extracted from the results of the Jonckheere-Terpstra test. An ordinal logistic regression analysis was performed using the numbers 1 to 5 of prefecture clusters as dependent variables and the indices representing the index clusters as independent variables. RESULTS: The percentage of the population aged 65 years and over and the percentage of construction and mining workers were positively related to the order of prefectural clusters. CONCLUSIONS: To promote implementation of nonsmoking in eating and drinking establishments in prefectures especially in those with larger numbers of elderly people and construction and mining workers, it is important to inform the persons in charge that implementation of nonsmoking does not affect the number of customers.

Differences in smokers' awareness of the health risks of smoking before and after introducing pictorial tobacco health warnings: findings from the 2012-2017 international tobacco control (ITC) Netherlands surveys.

BACKGROUND: As of May 2016, pictorial health warnings (PHWs) showing the harms of smoking were implemented in the European Union. After one year they had to be fully implemented. We studied changes in awareness of the health risks of smoking after implementation of PHWs among smokers from the Netherlands, whether the trend before the implementation changed after the implementation, and whether there were differences between subgroups. METHODS: We used survey data from six yearly waves of the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Netherlands Survey from 2012 to 2017. The number of participating smokers ranged between 1236 and 1604 per wave. Data were analyzed using Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) analyses. RESULTS: Indicators of awareness of the health risks of smoking that did not change between 2015 and 2017 were perceived susceptibility (ß = 0.043, p = 0.059) and perceived severity (ß = - 0.006, p = 0.679) regarding lung problems. Perceived susceptibility, however, was more pronounced between 2015 and 2017 than between 2012 and 2015(p value of interaction: p = 0.044). Noticing information about the dangers of smoking (ß = 0.119, p < 0.001) and knowledge about the health risks of smoking (ß = 0.184, p < 0.001) increased between 2015 and 2017. These increases were both more pronounced when compared to 2012-2015 (p values of interactions: p = 0.002 and p < 0.001 respectively). Compared to high educated smokers, low educated smokers (ß = - 1.137, p < 0.001) and moderate educated smokers (ß = - 0.894, p < 0.001) were less knowledgeable about the health risks of smoking in 2016 and 2017. CONCLUSIONS: Introducing PHWs coincided with an increase in smokers' knowledge about the health risks of smoking. Dutch tobacco control policy and campaigns should focus on improving Dutch smokers' awareness of the health risks of smoking even more, especially among low educated smokers.

Changes in adolescent smoking with implementation of local smoke-free policies in Indonesia: Quasi-experimental repeat cross-sectional analysis of national surveys of 2007 and 2013.

BACKGROUND: Banning smoking from public places may prevent adolescent smoking, but there is little evidence on impact of smoke-free policies (SFPs) from low and middle-income countries. This study assessed to what extent the adoption of local SPFs in Indonesia between 2007 and 2013 associated with adolescent smoking. METHODS: Data on 239,170 adolescents (12-17 years old) were derived from the 2007 and 2013 national health surveys in 497 districts and 33 provinces. This study compared 2013 survey respondents living in districts/provinces that adopted SFPs between 2007 and 2013, with 2007 respondents and 2013 respondents in districts/provinces that did not adopt policies. Multilevel logistic regression analysis assessed whether SFP was associated with daily and non-daily smoking. We controlled for survey year, SFP in 2007, socio-demographics, and district characteristics. RESULTS: Strong district SFPs was significantly associated with lower odds of daily smoking (OR:0.81, 95 %CI:0.69-0.97), but non-significantly with non-daily smoking (OR:0.89, 95 %CI:0.76-1.05). Strong provincial SFPs was not associated with daily smoking (OR:1.02, 95 %CI:0.84-1.25), but was associated with higher odds of non-daily smoking (OR:1.22, 95 %CI:0.99-1.51). Moderately strong SFPs did not consistently show associations in the same direction. For example, moderately strong provincial SFP was associated with higher odds of daily smoking (OR:1.27, 95 %CI:1.11-1.46) and lower odds of non-daily smoking (OR:0.82, 95 %CI:0.72-0.93). CONCLUSION: We did not detect a consistent short-term effect of district and province-level smoke-free policies on adolescent smoking in Indonesia. Weak implementation and poor compliance may compromise effectiveness, which would call for improvement of SFP implementation in Indonesia.

Population-level predictors of changes in success rates of smoking quit attempts in England: a time series analysis.

AIMS: To quantify associations between the success of smoking quit attempts and factors that have varied throughout 2007-2018 at a population level. DESIGN: time series analysis using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogeneous Input (ARIMAX) modelling. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Data were aggregated from 54 847 past-year smokers taking part in the Smoking Toolkit Study which involves monthly repeated cross-sectional household surveys of individuals aged 16+ in England. MEASUREMENTS: The input series were: (1) attempts at smoking reduction using (a) e-cigarettes and (b) nicotine replacement therapy (NRT); (2) use during a quit attempt of (a) e-cigarettes, (b) NRT over-the-counter, (c) medication on prescription and (d) face-to-face behavioural support; (3) use of roll-your-own tobacco; (4) prevalence of (a) smoking and (b) non-daily smoking; (5) tobacco control mass media expenditure; (6) expenditure on smoking; (7) smoker characteristics in the form of (a) high motivation to quit, (b) average age, (c) socio-economic status and (d) cigarette consumption; (8) implementation of tobacco control policies; and (9) quit attempt rate. FINDINGS: The licensing of NRT for harm reduction was associated with a 0.641% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.073-1.209, P = 0.027] increase in the mean point prevalence of the success rate of quit attempts. For every 1% increase in the mean point prevalence of e-cigarette use and use of prescription medication during a quit attempt, the mean point prevalence of successful quit attempts increased by 0.106% (95% CI = 0.011-0.201, P = 0.029) and 0.143% (95% CI = 0.009-0.279, P = 0.038), respectively. For every 1% increase in the mean expenditure on tobacco control mass media, the mean point prevalence of successful quit attempts increased by 0.046% (95% CI = 0.001-0.092, P = 0.046). Other associations were not statistically significant. CONCLUSION: In England between 2007 and 2018, licensing of nicotine replacement therapy for use in harm reduction, greater use of e-cigarettes and prescription medications during a quit attempt and higher expenditure on tobacco control mass media were all associated with higher success rates of quit attempts.

Youth smoking and anti-smoking policies in North Dakota: a system dynamics simulation study.

BACKGROUND: The current study utilizes system dynamics to model the determinants of youth smoking and simulate effects of anti-smoking policies in the context of North Dakota, a state with one of the lowest cigarette tax rates in the USA. METHODS: An explanatory model was built to replicate historical trends in the youth smoking rate. Three different policies were simulated: 1) an increase in cigarette excise taxes; 2) increased funding for CDC-recommended comprehensive tobacco control programs; and 3) enforcement of increased retailer compliance with age restrictions on cigarette sales. RESULTS: The explanatory model successfully replicated historical trends in adolescent smoking behavior in North Dakota from 1992 to 2014. The policy model showed that increasing taxes to $2.20 per pack starting in 2015 was the most effective of the three policies, producing a 32.6% reduction in youth smoking rate by 2032. Other policies reduced smoking by a much lesser degree (7.0 and 3.2% for comprehensive tobacco control program funding and retailer compliance, respectively). The effects of each policy were additive. CONCLUSIONS: System dynamics modeling suggests that increasing cigarette excise taxes are particularly effective at reducing adolescent smoking rates. More generally, system dynamics offers an important complement to conventional analysis of observational data.

[Current and emerging issues in tobacco prevention and control]. / Estado actual y desafíos emergentes en la prevención y el control del tabaco.

OBJECTIVE: To review the implementation of the WHO Framework Convention onTobacco Control in theAmericas, describe two national case studies and analyze the evidence on electronic cigarettes from a public health perspective. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Revision of the tobacco control legislation and the scientific evidence regarding electronic cigarettes. RESULTS: Implementation of tobacco control policies is not homogeneous, with important advances in smoke-free environments, pictorial health warnings, and epidemiological surveillance, but challenges that remain for the implementation of a total ban of tobacco advertising, increases in tobacco taxes, and tobacco cessation programs. Tobacco industry interference is one of the main obstacles for advancing and novel products create uncertainty about their regulation. CONCLUSIONS: There is a need for political will for a comprehensive implementation of the Convention, with evidence-based decisions to confront challenges and to defend the achievements from tobacco industry interference.

OBJETIVO: Revisar la aplicación del Convenio Marco de la OMS para el Control del Tabaco en las Américas, describir dos estudios de caso nacionales y analizar la evidencia sobre los cigarrillos electrónicos desde la perspectiva de salud pública. MATERIAL Y MÉTODOS: Revisión de la legislación de control de tabaco y la evidencia científica sobre los cigarrillos electrónicos. RESULTADOS: La aplicación de políticas no es homogénea, con avances importantes en ambientes libres de humo, advertencias sanitarias gráficas y vigilancia epidemiológica, pero desafíos pendientes en la prohibición total de la publicidad, incremento de impuestos y cesación tabáquica.La interferencia de la industria tabacalera es uno de los principales obstáculos para avanzar y los nuevos productos crean incertidumbre sobre su regulación. CONCLUSIONES: Se necesita revitalizar la voluntad política para aplicar integralmente el Convenio, tomando decisiones basadas en evidencia ante los nuevos desafíos y defendiendo los logros de la interferencia de la industria.

Estado actual y desafíos emergentes en la prevención y el control del tabaco / Current and emerging issues in tobacco prevention and control

Resumen: Objetivos: Revisar la aplicación del Convenio Marco de la OMS para el Control del Tabaco en las Américas, describir dos estudios de caso nacionales y analizar la evidencia sobre los cigarrillos electrónicos desde la perspectiva de salud pública. Material y métodos: Revisión de la legislación de control de tabaco y la evidencia científica sobre los cigarrillos electrónicos. Resultados: La aplicación de políticas no es homogénea, con avances importantes en ambientes libres de humo, advertencias sanitarias gráficas y vigilancia epidemiológica, pero desafíos pendientes en la prohibición total de la publicidad, incremento de impuestos y cesación tabáquica. La interferencia de la industria tabacalera es uno de los principales obstáculos para avanzar y los nuevos productos crean incertidumbre sobre su regulación. Conclusiones: Se necesita revitalizar la voluntad política para aplicar integralmente el Convenio, tomando decisiones basadas en evidencia ante los nuevos desafíos y defendiendo los logros de la interferencia de la industria.

Abstract: Objectives: To review the implementation of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control in the Americas, describe two national case studies and analyze the evidence on electronic cigarettes from a public health perspective. Materials and methods: Revision of the tobacco control legislation and the scientific evidence regarding electronic cigarettes. Results: Implementation of tobacco control policies is not homogeneous, with important advances in smoke-free environments, pictorial health warnings, and epidemiological surveillance, but challenges that remain for the implementation of a total ban of tobacco advertising, increases in tobacco taxes, and tobacco cessation programs. Tobacco industry interference is one of the main obstacles for advancing and novel products create uncertainty about their regulation. Conclusion: There is a need for political will for a comprehensive implementation of the Convention, with evidence-based decisions to confront challenges and to defend the achievements from tobacco industry interference.

Tobacco control in Mexico: a decade of progress and challenges.

Mexico was the first country in the Americas to sign and ratify the World Health Organization's (WHO) Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) in 2004. More than a decade later, it is appropriate to evaluate legislative and regulatory progress and the associated challenges; and also, to propose a roadmap to prioritize the problems to be addressed to achieve long-term sustainable solutions. Mexico has made substantial progress in tobacco control. However, regulations have been only weakly enforced. The tobacco industry continues to interfere with full implementation of the WHO-FCTC. As a result, tobacco consumption remains stable at about 17.6%, with a trend upwards among vulnerable groups: adolescents, women and low-income groups. The growing popularity of new tobacco products (electronic cigarettes or e-cigs) among young Mexicans is an increasing challenge. Our review reveals the need to implement all provisions of the WHO-FCTC in its full extent, and that laws and regulations will not be effective in decreasing the tobacco epidemic unless they are strictly enforced.

México fue el primer país de América en firmar y ratificar el Convenio Marco de la OMS para el Control del Tabaco (CMCT-OMS) en 2004. Un poco más de una década después, es relevante evaluar aspectos legislativos, regulatorios, avances y desafíos, además de proponer una ruta crítica con soluciones sustentables a largo plazo. México ha avanzado en el control del tabaco; sin embargo, las medidas se han implementado parcialmente y la industria del tabaco continúa interfiriendo con la implementación completa del CMCTOMS. Como resultado, el consumo de tabaco se mantiene estable alrededor de 17.6%, con una tendencia ascendente entre los más vulnerables: adolescentes, mujeres y grupos de bajos ingresos. La creciente popularidad de uso de los e-cig entre los jóvenes mexicanos trae nuevos y complejos desafíos. Es perentorio implementar al más alto nivel todas las disposiciones del CMCT-OMS: las leyes y los reglamentos no serán eficaces para abatir la epidemia de tabaquismo si no se aplican adecuadamente.

Impact of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control on global cigarette consumption: quasi-experimental evaluations using interrupted time series analysis and in-sample forecast event modelling.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) on global cigarette consumption. DESIGN: Two quasi-experimental impact evaluations, using interrupted time series analysis (ITS) and in-sample forecast event modelling. SETTING AND POPULATION: 71 countries for which verified national estimates of cigarette consumption from 1970 to 2015 were available, representing over 95% of the world's cigarette consumption and 85% of the world's population. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The FCTC is an international treaty adopted in 2003 that aims to reduce harmful tobacco consumption and is legally binding on the 181 countries that have ratified it. Main outcomes were annual national estimates of cigarette consumption per adult from 71 countries since 1970, allowing global, regional, and country comparisons of consumption levels and trends before and after 2003, with counterfactual control groups modelled using pre-intervention linear time trends (for ITS) and in-sample forecasts (for event modelling). RESULTS: No significant change was found in the rate at which global cigarette consumption had been decreasing after the FCTC's adoption in 2003, using either ITS or event modelling. Results were robust after realigning data to the year FCTC negotiations commenced (1999), or to the year when the FCTC first became legally binding in each country. By contrast to global consumption, high income and European countries showed a decrease in annual consumption by over 1000 cigarettes per adult after 2003, whereas low and middle income and Asian countries showed an increased annual consumption by over 500 cigarettes per adult when compared with a counterfactual event model. CONCLUSIONS: This study finds no evidence to indicate that global progress in reducing cigarette consumption has been accelerated by the FCTC treaty mechanism. This null finding, combined with regional differences, should caution against complacency in the global tobacco control community, motivate greater implementation of proven tobacco control policies, encourage assertive responses to tobacco industry activities, and inform the design of more effective health treaties.

Cigarette consumption estimates for 71 countries from 1970 to 2015: systematic collection of comparable data to facilitate quasi-experimental evaluations of national and global tobacco control interventions.

OBJECTIVES: To collect, appraise, select, and report the best available national estimates of cigarette consumption since 1970. DESIGN: Systematic collection of comparable data. SETTING AND POPULATION: 71 of 214 countries for which searches for national cigarette consumption data were conducted, representing over 95% of global cigarette consumption and 85% of the world's population. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Validated cigarette consumption data covering 1970-2015 were identified for 71 countries. Data quality appraisal was conducted by two research team members in duplicate, with greatest weight given to official government sources. All data were standardised into units of cigarettes consumed per year in each country, a detailed accounting of data quality and sourcing was prepared, and all collected data and metadata were made freely available in an open access dataset. RESULTS: Cigarette consumption fell in most countries over the past three decades but trends in country specific consumption were highly variable. For example, China consumed 2.5 million metric tonnes (MMT) of cigarettes in 2013, more than Russia (0.36 MMT), the United States (0.28 MMT), Indonesia (0.28 MMT), Japan (0.20 MMT), and the next 35 highest consuming countries combined. The US and Japan achieved reductions of more than 0.1 MMT from a decade earlier, whereas Russian consumption plateaued, and Chinese and Indonesian consumption increased by 0.75 MMT and 0.1 MMT, respectively. These data generally concord with modelled country level data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation and have the additional advantage of not smoothing year-over-year discontinuities that are necessary for robust quasi-experimental impact evaluations. CONCLUSIONS: Before this study, publicly available data on cigarette consumption have been limited; they have been inappropriate for quasi-experimental impact evaluations (modelled data), held privately by companies (proprietary data), or widely dispersed across many national statistical agencies and research organisations (disaggregated data). This new dataset confirms that cigarette consumption has decreased in most countries over the past three decades, but that secular country specific consumption trends are highly variable. The findings underscore the need for more robust processes in data reporting, ideally built into international legal instruments or other mandated processes. To monitor the impact of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control and other tobacco control interventions, data on national tobacco production, trade, and sales should be routinely collected and openly reported.

Tobacco control in Mexico: a decade of progress and challenges / El control de tabaco en México: una década de avances y desafíos

Abstract: Mexico was the first country in the Americas to sign and ratify the World Health Organization's (WHO) Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) in 2004. More than a decade later, it is appropriate to evaluate legislative and regulatory progress and the associated challenges; and also, to propose a roadmap to prioritize the problems to be addressed to achieve long-term sustainable solutions. Mexico has made substantial progress in tobacco control. However, regulations have been only weakly enforced. The tobacco industry continues to interfere with full implementation of the WHO-FCTC. As a result, tobacco consumption remains stable at about 17.6%, with a trend upwards among vulnerable groups: adolescents, women and low-income groups. The growing popularity of new tobacco products (electronic cigarettes or e-cigs) among young Mexicans is an increasing challenge. Our review reveals the need to implement all provisions of the WHO-FCTC in its full extent, and that laws and regulations will not be effective in decreasing the tobacco epidemic unless they are strictly enforced.

Resumen: México fue el primer país de América en firmar y ratificar el Convenio Marco de la OMS para el Control del Tabaco (CMCT-OMS) en 2004. Un poco más de una década después, es relevante evaluar aspectos legislativos, regulatorios, avances y desafíos, además de proponer una ruta crítica con soluciones sustentables a largo plazo. México ha avanzado en el control del tabaco; sin embargo, las medidas se han implementado parcialmente y la industria del tabaco continúa interfiriendo con la implementación completa del CMCT-OMS. Como resultado, el consumo de tabaco se mantiene estable alrededor de 17.6%, con una tendencia ascendente entre los más vulnerables: adolescentes, mujeres y grupos de bajos ingresos. La creciente popularidad de uso de los e-cig entre los jóvenes mexicanos trae nuevos y complejos desafíos. Es perentorio implementar al más alto nivel todas las disposiciones del CMCT-OMS: las leyes y los reglamentos no serán eficaces para abatir la epidemia de tabaquismo si no se aplican adecuadamente.