The role of farm subsidies in changing India's water footprint.

Dwindling groundwater supplies threaten food security and livelihoods. Output subsidies for farmers are a ubiquitous agricultural policy tool, yet their contribution to growing groundwater stress remains poorly quantified. We show how output subsidies guaranteeing the purchase of crops at higher than market prices may have contributed substantially to declining water tables in India. Our analysis suggests that these policies may have led to a 30% over-production of water intensive crops. In the northwestern state of Punjab, rice procurement can potentially account for at least 50% of the groundwater table decline over 34 years. In the central state of Madhya Pradesh, wheat procurement adopted in the late 2000s appears to have driven a 5.3 percentage point increase in dry wells and a consequent 3.4 percentage point increase in deep tubewells. These results suggest that well-intentioned but poorly designed subsidies can impose harmful externalities on the environment and undermine long-term sustainable development.

Parametric seasonal-trend autoregressive neural network for long-term crop price forecasting.

Crop price forecasting is difficult in that supply is not as elastic as demand, therefore, supply and demand should be stabilized through long-term forecasting and pre-response to the price. In this study, we propose a Parametric Seasonal-Trend Autoregressive Neural Network (PaSTANet), which is a hybrid model that includes both a multi-kernel residual convolution neural network model and a Gaussian seasonality-trend model. To compare the performance of the PaSTANet, we used daily data from the Garak market for four crops: onion, radish, Chinese cabbage, and green onion, and performed long-term price forecasts for one year in 2023. The PaSTANet shows good performance on all four crops compared to other conventional statistical and deep learning-based models. In particular, for onion, the (mean absolute error (MAE) for the long-term forecast of 2023 is 107, outperforming the second-best Prophet (152) by 29.6%. Chinese cabbage, radish, and green onion all outperform the existing models with MAE of 2008, 3703, and 557, respectively. Moreover, using the confidence interval, the predicted price was categorized into three intervals: probability, caution, and warning. Comparing the percentage of classified intervals about the true prices in our test set, we found that they accurately detect the large price volatility.

Enhancing yield and economic benefits through sustainable pest management in Okra cultivation.

Okra (Abelmoschus esculentus) is a prominent vegetable crop in Asia, confronting persistent threats from pests such as leafhoppers, whiteflies, and shoot and fruit borers. Conventional chemical control methods, despite their adverse ecological effects, remain the primary approach for pest management. Indiscriminate chemical use has led to reduced biodiversity among natural predators and the disruption of food webs in ecosystems. To address these challenges, this study assessed the efficacy of integrated (IM) and biointensive (BM) pest management modules in comparison to conventional chemical methods (CM) for mitigating insect damage to okra leaves and fruits, and subsequently, their impact on okra yield. Our result revealed that the BM exhibited the least effectiveness but outperformed untreated control plots significantly. In contrast, both IM and CM significantly reduced damage from sap-sucking insects and borer pests. Notably, plots treated with the chemical module found decreased populations of natural enemies. The IM demonstrated the lowest fruit infestation rate (5.06%), yielding the highest crop production (8.97 t ha-1), along with the maximum net return (Indian Rupees: 44,245) and incremental cost-benefit ratio (3.31). Thus, the study suggested that the implementation of integrated pest management practices can result in higher okra yields and greater economic benefits. These findings shed light on the potential of sustainable agricultural practices as a safer and more economically viable alternative to chemical-intensive pest control in okra cultivation.

The impact of COVID-19 on livelihood assets: a case study of high-value crop farmers in North-West Bangladesh.

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a catastrophic impact on public health, extending to the food system and people's livelihoods worldwide, including Bangladesh. This study aimed to ascertain the COVID-19 pandemic impacts on livelihood assets in the North-Western areas (Rajshahi and Rangpur) of Bangladesh. Primary data were collected from 320 farmers engaged in high-value agriculture using a multistage sampling method. The data were analysed using first-order structural equation modelling. The findings reveal a significant impact (p < 0.01) of the pandemic on all livelihood assets in Bangladesh. Notably, human assets exhibited the highest impact, with a coefficient of 0.740, followed sequentially by financial (0.709), social (0.684), natural (0.600), physical (0.542), and psychological (0.537) assets. Government-imposed lockdowns and mobility restrictions were identified as the major causes of the pandemic's negative effects on livelihoods, which included lost income, rising food prices, decreased purchasing power, inadequate access to food and medical supplies, increased social insecurity, and a rise in depression, worry, and anxiety among farmers. The effects of COVID-19 and associated policy measures on the livelihoods of high-value crop farmers have reversed substantial economic and nutritional advances gained over the previous decade. This study suggests attention to the sustainable livelihoods of farmers through direct cash transfer and input incentive programs to minimize their vulnerability to a pandemic like COVID-19 or any other crisis in the future.

Economic analysis of crop protection strategies: comparing the value of increased fungicide inputs and crop genetic improvement in managing Ascochyta blight in Australian chickpeas.

BACKGROUND: Genetic improvement of crop varieties requires significant investment. Therefore, varieties must be developed to suit a broad range of breeding targets, such as yield and suitability to rainfall zones, farm management practices and quality traits. In the case of breeding for disease resistance, breeders need to consider the value of genetic improvement relative to other disease management strategies and the dynamics of pathogen genetic and phenotypic diversity. This study uses a benefit-cost analysis framework to assess the economic value of fungicide management and crop genetic improvement in disease resistance for Australian chickpea varieties. RESULTS: When assessing the likelihood of growers switching to new crop varieties with improved genetic resistance to disease, the simulation results reveal that adopting these varieties yielded higher net benefit values compared to implementing current fungicide strategies across all rainfall zones. On average, the increase in net benefit varied between 2.6% and 3.5%. Conversely, when we examined the scenario involving modifying the current fungicide strategy, we observed that, on average, switching from the current fungicide management strategy to one which involved additional fungicides was beneficial in about 73% of the cases. CONCLUSION: Our analysis reveals the importance of factors such as commodity prices, production costs, disease-related variables and risk aversion in determining the economic benefits of adopting new crop protection strategies. Furthermore, the research reveals the need for accessible information and reliable data sources when evaluating the benefits of new agricultural technologies. This would assist growers in making informed and sustainable disease management decisions. © 2024 The Author(s). Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

Landscape features support natural pest control and farm income when pesticide application is reduced.

Future trajectories of agricultural productivity need to incorporate environmental targets, including the reduction of pesticides use. Landscape features supporting natural pest control (LF-NPC) offer a nature-based solution that can serve as a partial substitute for synthetic pesticides, thereby supporting future productivity levels. Here, we introduce a novel approach to quantify the contribution of LF-NPC to agricultural yields and its associated economic value to crop production in a broad-scale context. Using the European Union as case study, we combine granular farm-level data, a spatially explicit map of LF-NPC potential, and a regional agro-economic supply and market model. The results reveal that farms located in areas characterized by higher LF-NPC potential experience lower productivity losses in a context of reduced synthetic pesticides use. Our analysis suggests that LF-NPC reduces yield gaps on average by four percentage points, and increases income by a similar magnitude. These results highlight the significance of LF-NPC for agricultural production and income, and provide a valuable reference point for farmers and policymakers aiming to successfully invest in landscape features to achieve pesticides reduction targets.

Impact of economic indicators on rice production: A machine learning approach in Sri Lanka.

Rice is a crucial crop in Sri Lanka, influencing both its agricultural and economic landscapes. This study delves into the complex interplay between economic indicators and rice production, aiming to uncover correlations and build prediction models using machine learning techniques. The dataset, spanning from 1960 to 2020, includes key economic variables such as GDP, inflation rate, manufacturing output, population, population growth rate, imports, arable land area, military expenditure, and rice production. The study's findings reveal the significant influence of economic factors on rice production in Sri Lanka. Machine learning models, including Linear Regression, Support Vector Machines, Ensemble methods, and Gaussian Process Regression, demonstrate strong predictive accuracy in forecasting rice production based on economic indicators. These results underscore the importance of economic indicators in shaping rice production outcomes and highlight the potential of machine learning in predicting agricultural trends. The study suggests avenues for future research, such as exploring regional variations and refining models based on ongoing data collection.

Alternative crop residue management practices to mitigate the environmental and economic impacts of open burning of agricultural residues.

Deliberate open burning of crop residues emits greenhouse gases and toxic pollutants into the atmosphere. This study investigates the environmental impacts (global warming potential, GWP) and economic impacts (net cash flow) of nine agricultural residue management schemes, including open burning, fertilizer production, and biochar production for corn residue, rice straw, and sugarcane leaves. The environmental assessment shows that, except the open burning schemes, fossil fuel consumption is the main contributor of the GWP impact. The fertilizer and biochar schemes reduce the GWP impact including black carbon by 1.88-1.96 and 2.46-3.22 times compared to open burning. The biochar schemes have the lowest GWP (- 1833.19 to - 1473.21 kg CO2-eq/ton). The economic assessment outcomes reveal that the biochar schemes have the highest net cash flow (222.72-889.31 US$2022/ton or 1258.15-13409.16 US$2022/ha). The expenditures of open burning are practically zero, while the biochar schemes are the most costly to operate. The most preferable agricultural residue management type is the biochar production, given the lowest GWP impact and the highest net cash flow. To discourage open burning, the government should tailor the government assistance programs to the needs of the farmers and make the financial assistance more accessible.

Analysis of the competitiveness and complementarity of China-Vietnam bilateral agricultural commodity trade.

Vietnam's agricultural exports to China have remained strong, with the country maintaining its position as the top destination for Agri-products. This article primarily utilizes the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) Index, and Trade Complementarity (TC) index to examine the trade comparative advantage, and the complementary of twenty major agricultural products between China and Vietnam from 2012 to 2021. The study results showed that Vietnam and China frequently exchange agricultural products. Vietnam has more stronger competitiveness than China in terms of agricultural products. China's exports to Vietnam were highly complementary to Vietnam's imports in category 0 whiles Vietnam's exports to China showed strong complementarity with China's imports in category 2. This paper analyzes the complementarity and comparative advantages of agricultural trade between China and Vietnam, and proposes informed suggestions for policy-making to promote agricultural trade between the countries. The proposed suggestions aim to expand agricultural trade between the two countries, reduce the trade imbalance, and achieve mutual benefit and win-win results.

Narrowing yield gaps does not guarantee a living income from smallholder farming-an empirical study from western Kenya.

Crop yields in sub-Saharan Africa need to increase to keep pace with food demands from the burgeoning population. Smallholder farmers play an important role in national food self-sufficiency, yet many live in poverty. Investing in inputs to increase yields is therefore often not viable for them. To investigate how to unlock this paradox, whole-farm experiments can reveal which incentives could increase farm production while also increasing household income. In this study we investigated the impact of providing farmers with a US$ 100 input voucher each season, for five seasons in a row, on maize yields and overall farm-level production in two contrasting locations in terms of population density, Vihiga and Busia, in western Kenya. We compared the value of farmers' produce with the poverty line and the living income threshold. Crop yields were mainly limited by cash constraints and not by technological constraints as maize yield immediately increased from 16% to 40-50% of the water-limited yield with the provision of the voucher. In Vihiga, at best, one-third of the participating households reached the poverty line. In Busia half of the households reached the poverty line and one-third obtained a living income. This difference between locations was caused by larger farm areas in Busia. Although one third of the households increased the area farmed, mostly by renting land, this was not enough for them to obtain a living income. Our results provide empirical evidence of how a current smallholder farming system could improve its productivity and value of produce upon the introduction of an input voucher. We conclude that increasing yields of the currently most common crops cannot provide a living income for all households and additional institutional changes, such as alternative employment, are required to provide smallholder farmers a way out of poverty.

Optimal nitrogen rate strategy for sustainable rice production in China.

Avoiding excessive agricultural nitrogen (N) use without compromising yields has long been a priority for both research and government policy in China1,2. Although numerous rice-related strategies have been proposed3-5, few studies have assessed their impacts on national food self-sufficiency and environmental sustainability and fewer still have considered economic risks faced by millions of smallholders. Here we established an optimal N rate strategy based on maximizing either economic (ON) or ecological (EON) performance using new subregion-specific models. Using an extensive on-farm dataset, we then assessed the risk of yield losses among smallholder farmers and the challenges of implementing the optimal N rate strategy. We find that meeting national rice production targets in 2030 is possible while concurrently reducing nationwide N consumption by 10% (6-16%) and 27% (22-32%), mitigating reactive N (Nr) losses by 7% (3-13%) and 24% (19-28%) and increasing N-use efficiency by 30% (3-57%) and 36% (8-64%) for ON and EON, respectively. This study identifies and targets subregions with disproportionate environmental impacts and proposes N rate strategies to limit national Nr pollution below proposed environmental thresholds, without compromising soil N stocks or economic benefits for smallholders. Thereafter, the preferable N strategy is allocated to each region based on the trade-off between economic risk and environmental benefit. To facilitate the adoption of the annually revised subregional N rate strategy, several recommendations were provided, including a monitoring network, fertilization quotas and smallholder subsidies.

Analysis of competitive and comparative advantages of potato production in Indonesia.

Fundamental issues in sustainable development of competitive potato production in Indonesia are production and distribution inefficiencies. This study aims to examine the potato production competitiveness through competitive and comparative analyses as well as evaluating the impacts of government policy on potato production. This study employs Policy Analysis Matrix (PAM) to analyse the cross-section data collected from six regencies in Indonesia. Potato production in Indonesia was profitable privately and socially. The highest value of competitive advantage was indicated by PCR value in the dry season in Wonosobo Regency, Central Java Province. The lowest values were found in Bandung Regency. Highest comparative advantage was revealed in Tanah Karo Regency, North Sumatra Province, during the rainy season. Highest comparative advantage was found in Bandung Regency, West Java Province, in the dry season. However, the social profit was lower than the private profit indicating the potato farmers dealt with disincentives due to imperfect market. It implies that increasing domestic potato production will be more profitable rather than import. The policy makers need to evaluate the recent policies on input and output markets as well as the supply chain of potato to cope with imperfect markets in order to increase farmers' income.

Identification of climate induced optimal rice yield and vulnerable districts rankings of the Punjab, Pakistan.

The study attracted to insinuate the inhabitant anomalies of the crop yield in the districts of the Punjab where climate variation, inputs utilization, and district exponents are indispensable factors. Impact evaluation of sowing and harvesting dates for rice yield has been analyzed. Suitable sowing and harvesting dates and potential districts for the crop are proposed. Data consisting of 13,617 observations of more than 90 factors encompassing valuable dimensions of the growth of the crops collected through comprehensive surveys conducted by the Agriculture Department of Punjab are formulated to incorporate in this study. The results establish the significant negative repercussions of climate variability while the impacts vary in the districts. The crop yield deteriorates considerably by delaying the sowing and harvesting times. Districts climate-induced vulnerability ranking revealed Layyah, Jhelum, Mianwali, Khanewal and Chinniot, the most vulnerable while Kasur, Gujrat, Mandi Bhauddin, Nankana Sahib and Hafizabad, the least vulnerable districts. Spatial mapping explains the geographical pattern of vulnerabilities and yield/monetary losses. The study ranks districts using climate-induced yield and monetary loss (222.30 thousand metric tons of rice which are equal to 27.79 billion PKR climatic losses in single rice season) and recommends: the formation of district policy to abate the adverse climate impact, utilization of suitable climate variation by adhering proper sowing and harvesting times, setting the prioritized districts facing climate-induced losses for urgent attention and preferable districts for rice crop.

Global relationships between crop diversity and nutritional stability.

Nutritional stability - a food system's capacity to provide sufficient nutrients despite disturbance - is an important, yet challenging to measure outcome of diversified agriculture. Using 55 years of data across 184 countries, we assemble 22,000 bipartite crop-nutrient networks to quantify nutritional stability by simulating crop and nutrient loss in a country, and assess its relationship to crop diversity across regions, over time and between imports versus in country production. We find a positive, saturating relationship between crop diversity and nutritional stability across countries, but also show that over time nutritional stability remained stagnant or decreased in all regions except Asia. These results are attributable to diminishing returns on crop diversity, with recent gains in crop diversity among crops with fewer nutrients, or with nutrients already in a country's food system. Finally, imports are positively associated with crop diversity and nutritional stability, indicating that many countries' nutritional stability is market exposed.

Assessment of crop damage by rodent pests from experimental barley crop fields in Farta District, South Gondar, Ethiopia.

This study was conducted in Farta district, south Gondar from 2019 to 2020 cropping years to identify rodent pest species and estimate damage caused on barley crops. Four independent barley crop fields (40 x 40 m each) were sampled randomly to estimate the loss. Two were located near Alemsaga Priority State Forest and the other two were away from the forest. Four (2 x 2 m) rodent exclusion plots were established at 10 m interval as control units in each selected experimental barley fields using fine wire mesh. Rodent pest species were collected using both Sherman and snap traps throughout the different crop growing stages. The damaged and undamaged barley tillers by pest rodents were counted on five 1 x 1 m randomly sampled quadrats for each selected experimental fields. Variations on pest rodent population between cropping years and sites were analyzed using Chi square test. The mean crop damages between cropping years and experimental field sites were analyzed using two way ANOVA. Arvicanthis abyssinicus, Mastomys natalensis, Arvicanthis dembeensis, Mus musculus, Lophuromys simensis, Tachyoryctes splendens and Hystrix cristata were identified as pest rodents in the study area. A total of 968 individual rodents (427 in 2019 and 541 in 2020) were trapped during the study period. There was a statistical variation (χ2 = 13.42, df = 1 and P<0.05) between trapped individuals of the two successive years. The crop fields near the forest were more vulnerable than away from the forest during both cropping years. Statistical variations was observed on mean crop losses between cropping years and experimental barley crop sites. The highest crop damage was seen at maturity stage and the lowest during sowing in all experimental plots and cropping years. The percentage of barley yield loss due to rodent pests was 21.7 kg ha-1. The monetary value of this yield loss was equivalent to 4875 Birr (121.9 US$ h-1). Alemsaga Forest as shelter and conservation strategies like free of farmland from livestock and terracing for soil conservation have great role for the high rodent pest populations in the study area. Field sanitation, trapping and using restricted rodenticides like zinc phosphide are the possible recommendation to local farmers against rodent pests.

Genetically modified crop regulations: scope and opportunity using the CRISPR-Cas9 genome editing approach.

Global demand for food is increasing day by day due to an increase in population and shrinkage of the arable land area. To meet this increasing demand, there is a need to develop high-yielding varieties that are nutritionally enriched and tolerant against environmental stresses. Various techniques are developed for improving crop quality such as mutagenesis, intergeneric crosses, and translocation breeding. Later, with the development of genetic engineering, genetically modified crops came up with the transgene insertion approach which helps to withstand adverse conditions. The process or product-focused approaches are used for regulating genetically modified crops with their risk analysis on the environment and public health. However, recent advances in gene-editing technologies have led to a new era of plant breeding by developing techniques including site-directed nucleases, zinc finger nucleases, and the clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats (CRISPR)/CRISPR associated protein 9 (Cas9) that involve precise gene editing without the transfer of foreign genes. But these techniques always remain in debate for their regulation status and public acceptance. The European countries and New Zealand, consider the gene-edited plants under the category of genetically modified organism (GMO) regulation while the USA frees the gene-edited plants from such type of regulations. Considering them under the category of GMO makes a long and complicated approval process to use them, which would decrease their immediate commercial value. There is a need to develop strong regulatory approaches for emerging technologies that expedite crop research and attract people to adopt these new varieties without hesitation.

The role of premium subsidies in crop insurance.

This study develops a novel framework of heterogeneous producer attitudes towards risk to analyze different, stated and revealed, roles of crop insurance premium subsidies and underlying policy objectives of the government. The analysis reveals a strong connection and a complementarity between the roles of premium subsidies in increasing producer participation in crop insurance, inducing a desired separating equilibrium in the presence of asymmetric information, and transferring income to agricultural producers participating in the program. Developing an alternative design of premium subsidies that can achieve the stated government objective of increased producer participation and induce any desired separating equilibrium at significantly reduced costs, our study rejects the idea that the income redistribution taking place under the current policy design is necessary for increasing producer participation in crop insurance. Indeed, the current policy design reveals that premium subsidies are either a means of income redistribution or a policy failure.

Projecting the Global Potential Distribution of Cydia pomonella (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) Under Historical and RCP4.5 Climate Scenarios.

The codling moth Cydia pomonella (L.) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) is a destructive pest of apple (Malus domestica (Rosales: Rosaceae)), pear (Pyrus spp. (Rosales: Rosaceae)), and other pome tree fruits; outbreaks cause significant ecological and economic losses. In this study, we used CLIMEX model to predict and evaluate the global risk of C. pomonella based on historical climate data (1989-2018) and simulated future climate data (2071-2100) under the RCP4.5 scenarios. Cydia pomonella exhibited a wide distribution under both historical and future climate conditions. Climate change is predicted to expand the northern boundary of the potential distribution from approximately 60°N to 75°N. Temperature was the most dominant factor in climatic suitability for the pest. Combinations of multiple meteorological factors (relative humidity and precipitation) associated with a failure to break diapause in certain regions also affect suitability, particularly in northern South America and central Africa. Irrigation only had a slight impact on species favorability in some areas. The projections established in our study present insight into the global potential suitability of C. pomonella under climate change scenarios by the end of the 21st century. Farmers should be aware of the risk associated with the pest based on the results, which would provide guidance for quarantine agencies and trade negotiators worldwide.