Orthohantaviruses in Misiones Province, Northeastern Argentina.

Few cases of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome have been reported in northeastern Argentina. However, neighboring areas show a higher incidence, suggesting underreporting. We evaluated the presence of antibodies against orthohantavirus in small rodents throughout Misiones province. Infected Akodon affinis montensis and Oligoryzomys nigripes native rodents were found in protected areas of Misiones.

Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome in an Adolescent from North Dakota.

Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome remains an uncommon yet emerging viral zoonosis that causes respiratory failure and hemodynamic instability in children and adolescents. Due to its acutely progressive course and high mortality rate, clinicians treating hantavirus pulmonary syndrome should understand its epidemiologic risk factors, clinical syndrome and radiographic findings. We present a case of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome in a 14-year-old female from North Dakota who survived the infection without sequelae.

Distribution and prevalence of Sin Nombre hantavirus in rodent species in eastern New Mexico.

Orthohantaviruses are diverse zoonotic RNA viruses. Small mammals, such as mice and rats are common chronic, asymptomatic hosts that transmit the virus through their feces and urine. In North America, hantavirus infection primarily causes hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome (HCPS), which has a mortality rate of nearly 36%. In the United States of America, New Mexico (NM) is leading the nation in the number of HCPS-reported cases (N = 129). However, no reported cases of HCPS have occurred within eastern NM. In this study, we assessed the prevalence of Sin Nombre virus (SNV) in rodent assemblages across eastern NM, using RT-qPCR. We screened for potential rodent hosts in the region, as well as identified areas that may pose significant infection risk to humans. We captured and collected blood and lung tissues from 738 rodents belonging to 23 species. 167 individuals from 16 different species were positive for SNV RNA by RT-qPCR, including 6 species unreported in the literature: Onychomys leucogaster (Northern grasshopper mouse), Dipodomys merriami (Merriam's kangaroo rat), Dipodomys ordii (Ord's kangaroo rat), Dipodomys spectabilis (Banner-tailed kangaroo rat), Perognathus flavus (Silky pocket mouse), and Chaetodipus hispidus (Hispid pocket mouse). The infection rates did not differ between sexes or rodent families (i.e., Cricetidae vs. Heteromyidae). Generalized linear model showed that disturbed habitat types positively influenced the prevalence of SNV at sites of survey. Overall, the results of this study indicate that many rodent species in east New Mexico have the potential to maintain SNV in the environment, but further research is needed to assess species specific infectivity mechanisms and potential risk to humans.

Safety and Immunogenicity of an Andes Virus DNA Vaccine by Needle-Free Injection: A Randomized, Controlled Phase 1 Study.

BACKGROUND: Andes virus (ANDV), a rodent-borne hantavirus, causes hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS). The safety and immunogenicity of a novel ANDV DNA vaccine was evaluated. METHODS: Phase 1, double-blind, dose-escalation trial randomly assigned 48 healthy adults to placebo or ANDV DNA vaccine delivered via needle-free jet injection. Cohorts 1 and 2 received 2 mg of DNA or placebo in a 3-dose (days 1, 29, 169) or 4-dose (days 1, 29, 57, 169) schedule, respectively. Cohorts 3 and 4 received 4 mg of DNA or placebo in the 3-dose and 4-dose schedule, respectively. Subjects were monitored for safety and neutralizing antibodies by pseudovirion neutralization assay (PsVNA50) and plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT50). RESULTS: While 98% and 65% of subjects had at least 1 local or systemic solicited adverse event (AE), respectively, most AEs were mild or moderate; no related serious AEs were detected. Cohorts 2, 3, and 4 had higher seroconversion rates than cohort 1 and seropositivity of at least 80% by day 197, sustained through day 337. PsVNA50 geometric mean titers were highest for cohort 4 on and after day 197. CONCLUSIONS: This first-in-human candidate HPS vaccine trial demonstrated that an ANDV DNA vaccine was safe and induced a robust, durable immune response. Clinical Trials Registration. NCT03682107.

Filling the gaps in the Argentinian distribution of orthohantavirus: First finding of Lechiguanas virus in rodents from Corrientes, Argentina.

Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) is an emerging infectious disease caused by orthohantaviruses in the Americas. In Argentina, since 1995, several reservoirs and virus variants have been described, but the northeastern and central endemic zones in the country include an area without human or rodent infections, despite sharing rodent species with areas with that disease. The aim of this study was to search for orthohantavirus in rodent communities that inhabit this area, which borders two endemic areas of HPS. Small rodents were captured in June of 2022 through a total effort of 644 trap nights distributed in five grids located in the Iberá National Park, Corrientes, Northeastern Argentina. All rodents were sexed, weighed, and the species was recorded. Blood samples were extracted to detect ANDV-specific immunoglobulin G (IgG), and to extract the RNA virus. Trimmed sequences were mapped against reference sequences from GenBank. We captured a total of 36 Oligoryzomys flavescens and 15 Oxymycterus rufus. We detected the O. flavescens species infected with Lechiguanas orthohantavirus in the camping area of the National Park. A nucleotide comparison with previously published sequences shows a 98.34% similarity to the virus obtained from a human case of HPS reported in the adjacent Misiones province. This study demonstrated, for the first time, that O. flavescens is a host of the Lechiguanas orthohantavirus in this zone and contributes to closing information gaps on the distribution of orthohantavirus in Argentina. Additionally, the high similarity with the hantavirus found in the human case of Misiones suggests that the reservoir in that province would also be O. flavescens (not previously confirmed). This information permits us to focus on the preventive measurements to protect the human population.

Orthohantavirus Infection in Two Rodent Species that Inhabit Wetlands in Argentina.

Previous research conducted in central-east region of Argentina recorded potential orthohantavirus host rodents in diverse environments, but no research has focused particularly on islands, the environments that present the greatest risk to humans. For this reason, the aims of this research were to determine the orthohantavirus host in the rodent community focused on islands of Paraná River Delta, central-east region of Argentina, to identify temporal and spatial factors associated with orthohantavirus prevalence variations, to compare the functional traits of seropositive and seronegative rodents, and to explore the association between orthohantavirus prevalence and rodent community characteristics between August 2014 and May 2018. With a trapping effort of 14,600 trap-nights, a total of 348 sigmodontine rodent specimens belonging to seven species were captured 361 times. The overall antibody prevalence was 4.9%. Particularly, 14.9% of Oligoryzomys flavescens and 1.5% of Oxymycterus rufus, mainly reproductively active adult males, had antibodies against orthohantavirus. Even though O. flavescens inhabit all islands, our results suggest spatial heterogeneity in the viral distribution, with two months after periods of low temperature presenting increases in seroprevalence. This could be a response to the increased proportion of adults present in the rodent population. In addition, an association was found between the high seroprevalence and the diversity of the rodent assemblage. We also found 1.5% of O. rufus exposed to orthohantavirus, which shows us that further investigation of the ecology of the virus is needed to answer whether this species act as a spillover or a new competent host.

Seroprevalence of Hantavirus among Manual Cane Cutters and Epidemiological Aspects of HPS in Central Brazil.

Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) is a rodent-borne zoonotic disease that is endemic throughout the Americas. Agricultural activities increase exposure to wild rodents, especially for sugarcane cutters. We carried out a survey of the epidemiological aspects of HPS and investigated the prevalence of hantavirus infection in the sugarcane cutter population from different localities in the Brazilian Midwest region. We conducted a retrospective study of all confirmed HPS cases in the state of Goiás reported to the National HPS surveillance system between 2007 and 2017, along with a seroepidemiological study in a population of sugarcane cutters working in Goiás state in 2016, using the anti-hantavirus (Andes) ELISA IgG. A total of 634 serum samples from cane cutters were tested for hantavirus antibodies, with 44 (6.9%) being IgG-reactive according to ELISA. The destination of garbage was the only statistically significant variable (p = 0.03) related to the detection of hantavirus IgG (p < 0.05). We described the epidemiological profile of reported hantavirus cases in Goiás-a highly endemic area for HPS, and where the seroepidemiological study was conducted. Our results increase our knowledge about hantavirus infections in Brazil and highlight the vulnerability of sugarcane cutters to a highly lethal disease that, to date, has no specific treatment or vaccination.

Management of Hantavirus Cardiopulmonary Syndrome in Critical Care Transport: A Review.

In 1993, the Southwest found itself staring down a disease then known as "unexplained adult respiratory syndrome." During the outbreak, 12 of 23 known patients died. What we now recognize as hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome still remains a rare and deadly disease. Although no cure exists, modern supportive techniques such as extracorporeal membrane oxygenation have increased survival among these patients. Early diagnosis has become the primary factor in patient survival. The initial presentation of hantavirus is similar to acute respiratory distress syndrome, necessitating a high index of suspicion to afford the patient the best chance of survival. Diagnosis is further complicated by prolonged and nonspecific incubation periods making it difficult to pinpoint an exposure. Familiarizing oneself with common clinical presentations, diagnostic strategies, and testing is the best way to increase patient survival. Because hantavirus has a predilection for rural areas, transport to a tertiary facility is paramount to provide the resources necessary to care for these complex patients. Rapid sequence intubation, although common in airway-compromised patients, could prove fatal in the setting of the severe hemodynamic instability found in hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome. Anticipation of significant pressor use and fluid administration could likely mean the difference in patient mortality during transport.

Assessing Pulmonary Epithelial Damage in Hantavirus Cardiopulmonary Syndrome: Challenging the Predominant Role of Vascular Endothelium through sRAGE as a Potential Biomarker.

Hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome (HCPS) is a severe respiratory illness primarily associated with microvascular endothelial changes, particularly in the lungs. However, the role of the pulmonary epithelium in HCPS pathogenesis remains unclear. This study explores the potential of soluble Receptors for Advanced Glycation End-products (sRAGE) as a biomarker for assessing pulmonary epithelial damage in severe HCPS, challenging the prevailing view that endothelial dysfunction is the sole driver of this syndrome. We conducted a cross-sectional study on critically ill HCPS patients, categorizing them into mild HCPS, severe HCPS, and negative control groups. Plasma sRAGE levels were measured, revealing significant differences between the severe HCPS group and controls. Our findings suggest that sRAGE holds promise as an indicator of pulmonary epithelial injury in HCPS and may aid in tracking disease progression and guiding therapeutic strategies. This study brings clarity on the importance of investigating the pulmonary epithelium's role in HCPS pathogenesis, offering potential avenues for enhanced diagnostic precision and support in this critical public health concern.

Modeling potential risk areas of Orthohantavirus transmission in Northwestern Argentina using an ecological niche approach.

BACKGROUND: Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) is a rodent-borne zoonosis in the Americas, with up to 50% mortality rates. In Argentina, the Northwestern endemic area presents half of the annually notified HPS cases in the country, transmitted by at least three rodent species recognized as reservoirs of Orthohantavirus. The potential distribution of reservoir species based on ecological niche models (ENM) can be a useful tool to establish risk areas for zoonotic diseases. Our main aim was to generate an Orthohantavirus risk transmission map based on ENM of the reservoir species in northwest Argentina (NWA), to compare this map with the distribution of HPS cases; and to explore the possible effect of climatic and environmental variables on the spatial variation of the infection risk. METHODS: Using the reservoir geographic occurrence data, climatic/environmental variables, and the maximum entropy method, we created models of potential geographic distribution for each reservoir in NWA. We explored the overlap of the HPS cases with the reservoir-based risk map and a deforestation map. Then, we calculated the human population at risk using a census radius layer and a comparison of the environmental variables' latitudinal variation with the distribution of HPS risk. RESULTS: We obtained a single best model for each reservoir. The temperature, rainfall, and vegetation cover contributed the most to the models. In total, 945 HPS cases were recorded, of which 97,85% were in the highest risk areas. We estimated that 18% of the NWA population was at risk and 78% of the cases occurred less than 10 km from deforestation. The highest niche overlap was between Calomys fecundus and Oligoryzomys chacoensis. CONCLUSIONS: This study identifies potential risk areas for HPS transmission based on climatic and environmental factors that determine the distribution of the reservoirs and Orthohantavirus transmission in NWA. This can be used by public health authorities as a tool to generate preventive and control measures for HPS in NWA.

Hantavirus in Panama: Twenty Years of Epidemiological Surveillance Experience.

Twenty years have passed since the emergence of hantavirus zoonosis in Panama at the beginning of this millennium. We provide an overview of epidemiological surveillance of hantavirus disease (hantavirus pulmonary syndrome and hantavirus fever) during the period 1999-2019 by including all reported and confirmed cases according to the case definition established by the health authority. Our findings reveal that hantavirus disease is a low-frequency disease, affecting primarily young people, with a relatively low case-fatality rate compared to other hantaviruses in the Americas (e.g., ANDV and SNV). It presents an annual variation with peaks every 4-5 years and an interannual variation influenced by agricultural activities. Hantavirus disease is endemic in about 27% of Panama, which corresponds to agroecological conditions that favor the population dynamics of the rodent host, Oligoryzomys costaricensis and the virus (Choclo orthohantavirus) responsible for hantavirus disease. However, this does not rule out the existence of other endemic areas to be characterized. Undoubtedly, decentralization of the laboratory test and dissemination of evidence-based surveillance guidelines and regulations have standardized and improved diagnosis, notification at the level of the primary care system, and management in intensive care units nationwide.

Infección por hantavirus en la Provincia de Buenos Aires-Argentina. Comportamiento de la serie temporal 1997-2021 / Hantavirus infection in the Province of Buenos Aires-Argentina. Characteristics of the time series 1997-2021

INTRODUCCIÓN: La infección por hantavirus es endémica en América del Sur, con un amplio espectro de gravedad y una letalidad que varía entre 17 y 40 por ciento. El presente estudio recoge información de 25 años de vigilancia epidemiológica en Buenos Aires, Argentina. OBJETIVO: Caracterizar el comportamiento de la serie temporal 1997-2021, observando tendencia y estacionalidad. MÉTODOS: La función de serie temporal utilizada empleó la media móvil centrada según periodos trimestrales, de forma que cada año se dividió en cuartiles. Se consideró un modelo multiplicativo. RESULTADOS: Con una tasa de mortalidad de la serie de 0,15 por 100 mil y de letalidad de 22,6, la razón varones : mujeres fue de 3,4:1. La distribución sindrómica mostró mayor compromiso renal, siendo la tasa de mortalidad prácticamente igual en ambos sexos. CONCLUSIÓN: Como enfermedad infecciosa, la infección por hantavirus reflejó en los últimos 25 años un comportamiento, recurrente y estacional, endémico y compartido en sus características clínicas con el resto de la región andina.

BACKGROUND: Hantavirus infection is endemic in South America, with a wide spectrum of severity and a fatality rate that varies between 17-40 percent. This study collects information from 25 years of epidemiological surveillance in Buenos Aires, Argentina. AIM: To characterize the behavior of the 1997-2021 time series, observing trends and seasonality. METHODS: The time series function used the moving average centered according to quarterly periods, so that each year was divided into quartiles. A multiplicative model is missed. RESULTS: With a mortality rate for the series of 0.15 per 100,000 and a fatality rate of 22.6, the male : female ratio was 3.4:1. The syndromic distribution showed greater renal involvement, with the mortality rate being practically the same in both sexes. CONCLUSION: As an infectious disease, hantavirus has reflected in the last 25 years a behavior, recurrent and seasonal, endemic and shared in its clinical characteristics with the rest of the Andean region.

Andes Virus Genome Mutations That Are Likely Associated with Animal Model Attenuation and Human Person-to-Person Transmission.

We performed whole-genome sequencing with bait enrichment techniques to analyze Andes virus (ANDV), a cause of human hantavirus pulmonary syndrome. We used cryopreserved lung tissues from a naturally infected long-tailed colilargo, including early, intermediate, and late cell culture, passages of an ANDV isolate from that animal, and lung tissues from golden hamsters experimentally exposed to that ANDV isolate. The resulting complete genome sequences were subjected to detailed comparative genomic analysis against American orthohantaviruses. We identified four amino acid substitutions related to cell culture adaptation that resulted in attenuation of ANDV in the typically lethal golden hamster animal model of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome. Changes in the ANDV nucleocapsid protein, glycoprotein, and small nonstructural protein open reading frames correlated with mutations typical for ANDV strains associated with increased virulence in the small-animal model. Finally, we identified three amino acid substitutions, two in the small nonstructural protein and one in the glycoprotein, that were only present in the clade of viruses associated with efficient person-to-person transmission. Our results indicate that there are single-nucleotide polymorphisms that could be used to predict strain-specific ANDV virulence and/or transmissibility. IMPORTANCE Several orthohantaviruses cause the zoonotic disease hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) in the Americas. Among them, HPS caused by Andes virus (ANDV) is of great public health concern because it is associated with the highest case fatality rate (up to 50%). ANDV is also the only orthohantavirus associated with relatively robust evidence of person-to-person transmission. This work reveals nucleotide changes in the ANDV genome that are associated with virulence attenuation in an animal model and increased transmissibility in humans. These findings may pave the way to early severity predictions in future ANDV-caused HPS outbreaks.

Hantavirus in humans: a review of clinical aspects and management.

Hantavirus infections are part of the broad group of viral haemorrhagic fevers. They are also recognised as a distinct model of an emergent zoonotic infection with a global distribution. Many factors influence their epidemiology and transmission, such as climate, environment, social development, ecology of rodent hosts, and human behaviour in endemic regions. Transmission to humans occurs by exposure to infected rodents in endemic areas; however, Andes hantavirus is unique in that it can be transmitted from person to person. As hantaviruses target endothelial cells, they can affect diverse organ systems; increased vascular permeability is central to pathogenesis. The main clinical syndromes associated with hantaviruses are haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), which is endemic in Europe and Asia, and hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome (HCPS), which is endemic in the Americas. HCPS and HFRS are separate clinical entities, but they share several features and have many overlapping symptoms, signs, and pathogenic alterations. For HCPS in particular, clinical outcomes are highly associated with early clinical suspicion, access to rapid diagnostic testing or algorithms for presumptive diagnosis, and prompt transfer to a facility with critical care units. No specific effective antiviral treatment is available.

Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome: 1993-2018.

OBJECTIVES: From 1993 to 2018, hantavirus infections were reported in 39 states, with hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) as the most common and fatal manifestation. To identify differences in the presentation of HPS between children and adults, we hypothesized that children with HPS would be diagnosed later in their illness course given the nonspecific clinical features of HPS. METHODS: This was an evaluation of the clinical and demographic characteristics of national HPS cases from 1993 to 2018. Data were from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention database and 1 state department of health, comprising 97% of US cases. We compared children (0 to 12 years), adolescents (13 to 18 years), and adults using nonparametric and parametric analyses, with additional exploratory analyses to identify clinical variables associated with mortality. RESULTS: Among 719 HPS patients, 22 (3.0%) were aged ≤12 years, 47 (6.5%) were 13 to 18 years old, and the remaining 650 (90.4%) were adults. Overall mortality was 35.4% and did not differ between age groups (P = .8). The time between symptom onset and death differed by age group, with children living a median of 2 days (interquartile range [IQR] 2 to 3), adolescents 4 days (IQR 3 to 5), and adults 5 days (IQR 4 to 8; P = .001). The mean highest hematocrit and median highest creatinine level were significantly associated with mortality in those 0 to 18 years old but not adults. CONCLUSIONS: In our dataset representing the largest study of HPS in the United States, we found that children with HPS died more quickly than adults and that highest hematocrit and creatinine levels were associated with death only among those <19 years old.

Emerging Maripa Hantavirus as a Potential Cause of a Severe Health Threat in French Guiana.

We describe the clinical parameters and management of nine confirmed cases of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome reported in French Guiana since 2008. All patients were admitted to Cayenne Hospital. Seven patients were men and the mean age was 48 years (range, 19-71 years). Two phases characterized the disease. The prodromal phase was characterized by fever (77.8%), myalgia (66.7%), and gastrointestinal symptoms (vomiting and diarrhea; 55.6%) starting, on average, 5 days before the illness phase, which was characterized by respiratory failure in all patients. Five patients died (55.6%) and the length of stay in the intensive care unit was 19 days (range, 11-28 days) for survivors. Detection of two back-to-back recent cases highlights the reason to screen for hantavirus infection during the nonspecific phase of the disease, in particular when concomitant pulmonary infection and digestive disorders are observed. Specific longitudinal serological surveys must also be used to identify other potential clinical forms of the disease in French Guiana.

Modelling relative abundance of Oligoryzomys flavescens, an Orthohantavirus reservoir, in an endemic hantavirus pulmonary syndrome zone.

Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) is a zoonotic emerging infectious disease caused by New World orthohantaviruses (family Hantaviridae) hosted by rodents of the family Cricetidae. In Argentina, one of its main hosts is the sigmodontine rodent Oligoryzomys flavescens, a widely distributed mouse of the Pampas, Delta and Espinal ecoregions of central-east Argentina. Because the abundance of the reservoir and its proportion in the rodent community affects both virus prevalence and human exposure risk, its estimation throughout its known geographical distribution is of key importance for the design of public health strategies to prevent HPS. The aim of this study was therefore to model the relative abundance of O. flavescens in most of the Pampas ecoregion within Buenos Aires Province, Argentina, where hantavirus pulmonary syndrome is endemic. To do this we used owl-pellet samples collected between 2006 and 2008 from 51 sites distributed throughout most of Buenos Aires province. Mammalian prey in each pellet was identified to the lowest possible taxonomic level by examination of the skulls, dentaries and molars. We modelled the frequency of O. flavescens found in each sample as a function of climatic, environmental, and topographic data of each site. The two best models were applied to a Geo referential Information System to build maps of estimated frequency (as a proxy of relative abundance) within Buenos Aires province. Estimated relative abundance of O. flavescens in Buenos Aires province was significantly associated with annual mean temperature, annual precipitation and presence of freshwater bodies, and varied among sub-regions, with the Inland and Rolling Pampas being the regions with highest frequencies. Knowing in which areas O. flavescens abundance is expected to be higher can be used to concentrate limited sanitary efforts in those areas that are most needed in order to reduce transmission and increase detection.

Experimental Infection of Peromyscus Species Rodents with Sin Nombre Virus.

We demonstrate that 6 distinct Peromyscus rodent species are permissive to experimental infection with Sin Nombre orthohantavirus (SNV). Viral RNA and SNV antibodies were detected in members of all 6 species. P. leucopus mice demonstrated markedly higher viral and antibody titers than P. maniculatus mice, the established primary hosts for SNV.

[Prognostic factors for cardio-pulmonary syndrome and death by hantavirus Andes Sur: cohort study in San Carlos de Bariloche and health influence area]. / Factores pronósticos de síndrome cardiopulmonar y muerte por hantavirus Andes Sur: Estudio de cohorte en San Carlos de Bariloche y su zona de influencia sanitaria.

Hantavirus infections occur through the inhalation of aerosols from the excreta of infected rodents. These viruses cause a cardiopulmonary syndrome in the case of the Andes Sur variant, with a mortality that can reach 50%. It occurs in sporadic cases or in small clusters, in which interhuman contagion predominates. In this historical cohort-type observational study, in people infected with Andes Sur hantavirus during the years 2009 to 2019 who was assisted in the public health subsector of San Carlos de Bariloche (Argentina), it was sought to identify factors that could predict poor evolution (cardiopulmonary syndrome and death). For this, the risk for each of the variables was characterized and, to obtain key information about the relationships between them, a multiple correspondence analysis was also applied. During the study period, 38 people were included. The mean age was 35 years. Person-to-person contagion was suspected in 10/38 (26.8%) cases. 21.1% (8/28) presented a hantavirus pulmonary syndrome at the time of diagnosis, while 55.3% (21/38) developed it during their evolution, and 44.7% (17/38) of those infected died during hospitalization. Age over 15 years and thrombocytopenia were associated with a higher risk of clinical progression, while mild forms or asymptomatic people, person-to-person transmission, or during an epidemiological outbreak, were associated with a lower risk of death.

Las infecciones por hantavirus, ocurren a través de la inhalación de aerosoles provenientes de excretas de roedores infectados. Estos virus causan síndrome cardiopulmonar en el caso de la variante Andes Sur, con una mortalidad que puede alcanzar el 50%. Se presenta como casos esporádicos o en pequeños conglomerados, en los que predomina el contagio interhumano. En este estudio observacional de tipo cohorte histórica, en personas infectadas con hantavirus Andes Sur durante los años 2009 a 2019 que fueron asistidas en el subsector público de salud de San Carlos de Bariloche(Argentina), se buscó identificar factores que pudieran predecir mala evolución (síndrome cardiopulmonar y muerte). Para ello se caracterizó el riesgo para cada una de las variables y, para obtener información clave sobre las relaciones entre las mismas, se aplicó además un análisis de correspondencias múltiples. Durante el período de estudio, 38 personas fueron incluidas. La edad media fue de 35 años. Se sospechó contagio de persona a persona en 10/38 (26.8%) casos. El 21.1% (8/28) tuvo al momento del diagnóstico un síndrome pulmonar por hantavirus. Mientras que, 55.3% (21/38) lo desarrolló durante su evolución y 44.7% (17/38) de los infectados fallecieron durante la internación. La edad mayor a 15 años y la plaquetopenia, se asociaron con un mayor riesgo de progresión clínica, mientras que las formas de leves o las personas asintomáticas, el contagio persona a persona o durante un brote epidemiológico, se asociaron con un menor riesgo de muerte.

Modeling of hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome. / Modelamiento del síndrome cardiopulmonar por hantavirus.

Introduction: Hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome is an infection caused by rodents of the Bunyanvirales family towards humans. This disease in Chile is considered endemic, which has a high fatality rate. At present, some studies show the contagion between people of the Andes virus, whose locality is concentrated in Argentina and Chile. Objectives: Analyze the possibility of hantavirus transmission between humans using an SEIR-type mathematical model. Methods: An SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious and Recovered) mathematical model to express the dynamics of hantavirus disease is proposed, including the possibility of human-to-human transmission and the perception of risk. Results: The peak of human-to-human contagion decreases by about 25% after increasing peoples perception of risk by reducing the rate of resistance to changeand increasing the speed of peoples reaction. Conclusions: It is urgent to review risk communication strategies and prevention measures in the face of this possibility of massive human-tohuman infections, in addition to strengthening research and planning the development of a vaccine to protect populations exposed to this disease with a high fatality rate.

Introducción: El síndrome cardiopulmonar por hantavirus es una enfermedad causada por un virus perteneciente al orden bunyanvirales, y transmitida hacia los humanos a través de roedores. Esta enfermedad en Chile es considerada endémica, la cual tiene una alta tasa de letalidad. En la actualidad existen estudios que evidencian el contagio entre personas del virus Andes, cuya localidad se concentra en los países de Argentina y Chile. Objetivos: Analizar la posibilidad de transmisión de hantavirus entre humanos, mediante un modelo matemático tipo SEIR. Métodos: Se plantea un modelo matemático tipo SEIR (susceptible, expuesto, infeccioso y recuperado) para expresar la dinámica de la enfermedad por hantavirus, incluyendo la posibilidad de transmisión entre humanos y la percepción del riesgo. Resultados: El máximo de contagio entre humanos disminuye cerca de 25% tras aumentar la percepción de riesgo de las personas, mediante la reducción de la tasa de resistencia al cambio y aumento la velocidad de reaccionar de las personas. Conclusiones: Es urgente revisar las estrategias de comunicación de riesgo y medidas de prevención ante esta posibilidad de contagios masivos entre humanos, además de fortalecer la investigación y proyectar el desarrollo de una vacuna para proteger las poblaciones expuestas a esta enfermedad con alta tasa de letalidad.