Births in the United States, 2023.

Objectives: This report presents 2023 data on U.S. births compared with 2022 and 2021 for several key demographic and maternal and infant characteristics. Methods: Descriptive tabulations of data reported on the birth certificates of the 3.60 million births that occurred in 2023 are presented. Data are presented for the number of births, the general fertility rate, teenage birth rates, the distribution of births by trimester prenatal care began and the distribution of births by selected gestational age categories. Data for 2023 are compared with data for 2022 and 2021. Results: A total of 3,596,017 births were registered in the United States in 2023, down 2% from 2022. The general fertility rate declined 3% in 2023 to 54.5 births per 1,000 females ages 15-44. Birth rates declined for females ages 15-19 (4%), 15-17 (2%), and 18-19 (5%), from 2022 to 2023. The percentage of mothers receiving prenatal care in the first trimester of pregnancy declined 1% to 76.1% in 2023 while the percentage of mothers with no prenatal care increased 5%. The preterm birth rate was essentially unchanged at 10.41% in 2023 but the rate of early term births rose 2%.

A Bayesian Projection of the Total Fertility Rate of Puerto Rico: 2020-2050.

OBJECTIVE: The abrupt decline in the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of Puerto Rico to 0.9 children per woman, well below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman, makes the prospect of a sustained population decline a real possibility. Population projections produced by the United States Census Bureau and the United Nations Population Division show that the island population may decline from 3.8 millions in 2000 to slightly above 2 million by 2050, a dramatic population decline of 47% in 50 years. Both population projections assume that all countries with a TFR below replacement level could eventually increase toward or oscillate to 2.1 children per woman and have Puerto Rico's TFR approaching 1.5 by 2050. This assumption has been widely criticized as unrealistic and not supported by evidence. The main objective of our research is to provide an alternative fertility projection for Puerto Rico by 2050 that has more realistic assumptions. METHODS: Our methodology is based on the Bayesian Hierarchical Probabilistic Theory used by the United Nations to incorporate a way to measure the uncertainty and to estimate the projection parameters. We modified the assumptions used by the United Nations by considering 17 countries with TFR similar to Puerto Rico. RESULTS: By 2050, Puerto Rico may have a TFR of 1.1 bounded by a 95% credibility interval (0.56,1.77). CONCLUSION: Under this scenario Puerto Rico can expect to have a larger population decline than that projected by the Census Bureau and the United Nations.

Two World Wars and Belgium: Missing Births and Birth Sex Ratio Changes.

INTRODUCTION: The sex ratio at birth (male/total births, M/T) is expected to approximate 0.515. M/T is influenced by many factors including stress. Both World Wars have been implicated as influencing birth rates and M/T. This study was carried out to analyse the effects of two World Wars on Belgium vis-à-vis missing births as well as M/T changes. METHODS: Belgian male and female births were available for 1830-2019 and annual population was available from Statista. ARIMA models were used to estimate and project birth losses. The effect of wars was assumed to begin in the years following the commencement of each war and extend to the year after cessation of hostilities i.e., 1915-1919 and 1940-1946 for the First and Second World Wars respectively. RESULTS: This study included 27,346,178 live births for 1830-2019, M/T 0.5124. There was a decreasing trend in births for 1830-2019, significant for 1950-2019. There were dips in births in association with both Wars resulting in over 440,000 missing births, 3.80% of the Belgian population for the First World War and 1.91% for the Second World War. M/T rose non-significantly for the First World War and significantly for the Second World War. DISCUSSION: The declining birth rate and M/T in developed countries is a recognised phenomenon. The missing births in relation to wars are of demographic importance but are often overlooked with emphasis usually on casualties and deaths. M/T may rise in wars, possibly due to increased coital activity as well as other factors.

The influence of social, demographic and economic factors on fertility trends in Gulf Cooperation Council countries: A longitudinal time trend analysis-1980-2021.

OBJECTIVES: To analyze the fertility rate trends in the GCC countries and their association with socioeconomic factors so that policymakers may use the study findings for future healthcare plans. METHODS: Total population, crude death rate, life expectancy, literacy rate, human development index (HDI), female employment, unemployment rate, urbanisation, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and inflation were chosen as possible predictors of TFR trends. The data were collected for the Global Burden of Disease 2021 study and other official databases such as the World Bank, the United Nations Development Program and Our World in Data for the 6 Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Mean with standard deviation and percentage change was calculated to assess trends of TFR and all other variables from 1980-2021. RESULTS: The fertility rate declined in all 6 countries in 2021 compared to 1980. The highest decline was found in the United Arab Emirates (75.5%), while the lowest was in Kuwait (60.9%). From 1980-2021, total population, life expectancy, HDI, literacy rate, GDP, urbanisation, and female labor force increased in all GCC countries. The total population, life expectancy, urbanisation, female labor force, GDP and HDI were negatively and significantly correlated with TFR (p<0.01). The literacy rate showed a negative and significant correlation with TFR in Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar. CONCLUSION: The TFR is declining in GCC countries. The plausible causes include the inclination towards postponement of marriages and excessive costs of living. These trends and associations need to be evaluated by policymakers so that they identify priority areas for interventions, allocate resources and formulate developmental plans accordingly to ensure strategic progress of the region.

Mortality risk predicts global, local, and individual patterns of human reproduction.

BACKGROUND: Human reproductive dynamics in the post-industrial world are typically explained by economic, technological, and social factors including the prevalence of contraception and increasing numbers of women in higher education and the workforce. These factors have been targeted by multiple world governments as part of family policies, yet those policies have had limited success. The current work adopts a life history perspective from evolutionary biology: like most species, human populations may respond to safer environments marked by lower morbidity and mortality by slowing their reproduction and reducing their number of offspring. We test this association on three levels of analysis using global, local, and individual data from publicly available databases. RESULTS: Data from over 200 world nations, 3,000 U.S. counties and 2,800 individuals confirm an association between human reproductive outcomes and local mortality risk. Lower local mortality risk predicts "slower" reproduction in humans (lower adolescent fertility, lower total fertility rates, later age of childbearing) on all levels of analyses, even while controlling for socioeconomic variables (female employment, education, contraception). CONCLUSIONS: The association between extrinsic mortality risk and reproductive outcomes, suggested by life history theory and previously supported by both animal and human data, is now supported by novel evidence in humans. Social and health policies governing human reproduction, whether they seek to boost or constrain fertility, may benefit from incorporating a focus on mortality risk.

Interrupted time series analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and compulsory social health insurance system on fertility rates: a study of live births in Kazakhstan, 2019-2023.

Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic triggered global health crises, affecting population health directly through infections and fatalities, and indirectly by increasing the burden of chronic diseases due to disrupted healthcare access and altered lifestyle behaviors. Amidst these challenges, concerns regarding reproductive health and fertility rates have emerged, necessitating an understanding of their implications for policymaking and healthcare planning. Furthermore, Kazakhstan's healthcare landscape underwent significant changes with the reintroduction of compulsory social health insurance system in January 2020, coinciding with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aims to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and compulsory social health insurance system on fertility rates in Kazakhstan by examining live birth data from 2019 to 2024. Methods: Using Interrupted Time Series analysis, we evaluated the effect of the COVID-19 lockdown announcement and compulsory social health insurance system implementation on monthly birth rates, adjusted for the number of women of reproductive age from January 2019 to December 2023. Results: In the final model, the coefficients were as follows: the effect of the COVID-19 lockdown was estimated at 469 (SE = 2600, p = 0.8576); the centering variable was estimated at 318 (SE = 222, p = 0.1573), suggesting no significant trend in monthly birth rates over time; the insurance effect was estimated at 7,050 (SE = 2,530, p < 0.01); and the effect of the number of women of reproductive age was estimated at -0.204 (SE = 0.0831, p = 0.01). Discussion: The implementation of the compulsory social health insurance system, rather than the announcement of the COVID-19 lockdown, has had a significant positive impact on live birth rates in Kazakhstan. However, despite governmental efforts, live birth rates are declining, potentially due to unaddressed health needs of fertile women and economic challenges. Urgent policy-level actions are needed to address gaps in healthcare services and promote reproductive health.

Pregnancy in girls under 14 years old: Spatial analysis in Brazil, 2011-2021. / Gravidez em meninas menores de 14 anos: análise espacial no Brasil, 2011 a 2021.

The objective was to analyze the spatial distribution of pregnancy in children under 14 years and six months by Brazilian region and municipality and sociodemographic and health characteristics of pregnant women and live births. Ecological study analyzing the Live Birth Information System (SINASC) from 2011 to 2021 in three age groups (< 14 years and six months, 15-19 years, and 20 years and above) by demographic and birth variables. We applied the Global and Local Moran. A total of 127,022 live births to girls aged 10-14 years were identified during the period, most of whom were Black, 21.1% in common-law or married relationships, with a lower proportion of seven prenatal care appointments and enrollment in the first trimester, a higher proportion of low birth weight and low Apgar score, residing in the North and Northeast. The mean live birth rate for 10-to-14-year-old girls was significantly autocorrelated with space, especially in municipalities of the Midwest and North. Pregnancy from 10 to 14 years of age reveals several vulnerabilities suffered by these girls due to pregnancy at an early age, which is more common among Black women, with implications for morbimortality for them and their children and the presumed violence in these cases, including denied access to legal abortion.

O objetivo foi analisar a distribuição espacial da gravidez em menores de 14 anos e seis meses segundo regiões e municípios brasileiros e características sociodemográficas e de saúde das parturientes e nascidos vivos. Estudo ecológico, analisando o Sistema de Informação sobre Nascidos Vivos (SINASC), 2011-2021, em três grupos etários (<14 anos e 6 meses, 15-19 e 20 anos e mais), segundo variáveis demográficas e do parto. Foram aplicados os Índices Global e Local de Moran. No período foram 127.022 nascidos vivos de meninas 10-14 anos, na maioria negras, 21,1% em união estável ou casadas, com menor proporção de 7 consultas de pré-natal e captação no primeiro trimestre, maior proporção de baixo peso ao nascer e baixo índice de Apgar, residentes nas regiões Norte e Nordeste. A taxa média de nascidos vivos de 10-14 anos mostrou autocorrelação significativa com o espaço, especialmente em municípios do Centro-Oeste e Norte. A gravidez de 10 a 14 revela uma sequência de vulnerabilidades sofridas por essas meninas, pela gravidez em idade precoce, maior frequência entre negras, com implicações na morbimortalidade para ela e seus filhos; e pela violência presumida nesses casos, incluindo o acesso negado ao aborto legal.

Housing wealth, fertility and children's health in China: A regression discontinuity design.

This paper examines the influence of housing wealth on fertility outcomes through a regression discontinuity design based on a 2006 Chinese housing-market policy. Our analysis reveals that the positive impact of this policy on housing wealth significantly enhances the likelihood of fertility by 7.3 %. Our result implies that a 1 % increase in housing wealth can raise the fertility rate by 0.18 %. Furthermore, we observe that children born subsequent to the positive housing wealth shock exhibit improved health, not only at birth but also over the long term. Lastly, we present suggestive evidence suggesting that both parental pre-birth time allocation and parental health may help explain the documented positive effects of housing wealth on fertility rates.

Trends in fertility and abortion in Czechia.

The assessment of the development of fertility and abortion rates over the last three decades shows that Czechia has reached the top position in Europe with a total fertility rate of 1.83 children per woman in 2021. The postponement of fertility to women's older age, which was behind the sharp drop in fertility to 1.1, has been gradually slowed down and halted between 2015 and 2021. In recent years, there has been an increase in fertility rates for women aged 30 and older as well as a balanced increase for women under 30. In the European context Czechia has maintained its position as a country with lower rates of reproductive ageing. The favourable demographic position of Czechia among European countries is also illustrated by the relatively low level of the abortion rate. The postponement of female fertility to older ages has not been accompanied by an increase in the abortion rate among young women, but on the contrary a decline in fertility has been accompanied by a decline in the abortion rate. Given the year-on-year increase in total fertility (from 1.71 in 2020 to 1.83 in 2021), the initial effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on fertility can be assessed positively. However, the subsequent decline to 1.62 in 2022 is already the result of a combination of adverse effects stemming from the consequences of antipandemic measures and worsening economic conditions, to which new security risks associated with the war in Ukraine have subsequently been added. This has created the conditions for a further postponement of fertility until women are older.

Exploring the mystical relationship between the Moon, Sun, and birth rate.

OBJECTIVE: The Moon has a noticeable influence on the Earth due to its gravity, the most visible manifestation of which are tides. We aimed to see if the Moon's daily cycle, like the Sun's, affects the prevalence and incidence of childbirth. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, we examined all deliveries at the Academic Hospital of Udine between 2001 and 2019. All consecutive singleton pregnancies with spontaneous labor and vaginal delivery were included. RESULTS: During the period, 13,349 singleton pregnancies with spontaneous labor and vaginal delivery were delivered in 6939 days. A significantly higher prevalence of deliveries was found with the Moon above the horizon (50.63% vs. 49.37%, p < 0.05). Moreover, during the day, there was a significantly higher prevalence of deliveries than during nighttime (53.74% vs. 45.79%, p < 0.05). Combining the Moon and Sun altitude, the majority of deliveries were registered when both were above the horizon (27.39% vs. 26.13%, 23.25%, or 23.24%, p < 0.05). These findings were confirmed in multivariate analysis after adjusting for parity, gestational age, or season. We found no correlation between birth and the Moon phase. CONCLUSIONS: Our data support the interaction of the Moon and the Sun in determining the time of birth. More research is needed to understand these phenomena and improve our understanding of labor initiation mechanisms.

Predicting Future Birth Rates with the Use of an Adaptive Machine Learning Algorithm: A Forecasting Experiment for Scotland.

The total fertility rate is influenced over an extended period of time by shifts in population socioeconomic characteristics and attitudes and values. However, it may be impacted by macroeconomic trends in the short term, although these effects are likely to be minimal when fertility is low. With the objective of forecasting monthly deliveries, this study concentrates on the analysis of registered births in Scotland. Through this approach, we examine the significance of precisely forecasting fertility trends, which can subsequently aid in the anticipation of demand in diverse sectors by allowing policymakers to anticipate changes in population dynamics and customize policies to tackle emerging demographic challenges. Consequently, this has implications for fiscal stability, national economic accounts and the environment. In conducting our analysis, we incorporated non-linear machine learning methods alongside traditional statistical approaches to forecast monthly births in an out-of-sample exercise that occurs one step in advance. The outcomes underscore the efficacy of machine learning in generating precise predictions within this particular domain. In sum, this research will comprehensively demonstrate a cutting-edge model of machine learning that utilizes several attributes to assist in clinical decision-making, predict potential complications during pregnancy and choose the appropriate delivery method, as well as help in medical diagnosis and treatment.

The Global Adolescent Fertility Decline is Counteracted by Increasing Teen Births in Sub-Saharan Africa.

There is a lack of understanding of the persistence of elevated teen fertility rates in certain regions and countries, in contrast to the significant decline observed in other regions globally. This report considers fertility trends among 15- to 19-year olds in the period 1950-2020 and explores potential driving factors behind the significant shifts that occurred over this period. The countries where teen fertility remains high are those with fast-growing populations, primarily located in sub-Saharan Africa. Countries with higher teen fertility are typically characterized by limited use of modern contraception, lower education levels, and early marriage. Sub-Saharan Africa has emerged as the world region with the most teen births, increasing its proportion of global teen births from 12 percent in 1950 to 47 percent in 2020, a time during which this region's share of the global adolescent (15-19) population grew from 7.5 percent to 19 percent. By 2035, 67 percent of all teen births globally are projected to occur in this region. Consequently, the future number of births to teenage mothers will to a large extent depend on the development in sub-Saharan Africa over the coming decades.

Reconstructing Prospective Intergenerational Educational Mobility in 12 Countries.

In this article, we reconstruct prospective intergenerational educational mobility and explore fertility's role in this process for women born between 1925 and 1950 in 12 European countries. We do so by combining high-quality retrospective data (Generations and Gender Survey) and low-requirement prospective datasets using an inferential method developed and advanced in prior research. Our analysis shows that the negative educational fertility gradient partly compensates for the inequality in prospective mobility rates between lower and higher educated women and is most pronounced in high-inequality contexts. However, fertility's role is small and declining and thus does not account for much of the differences in mobility rates between countries. We also explore the relative importance of sibship size effects in mediating the effect of fertility gradient, finding it negligible. Finally, we explore the correspondence between prospective and retrospective estimates in the reconstruction of prospective mobility rates and suggest why the former, when available, must be preferred.

Decomposing the Drivers of Population Aging: A Research Note.

Population aging is an important and increasingly relevant area of study for demographers. A growing body of research seeks to determine how long-term changes in births, mortality, and migration-the three drivers of any demographic process-have shaped the present aging situation. Using variable-r decomposition and cohort data, this research note presents a formula for the change in the old-age dependency ratio to determine the extent to which relative changes in births, as well as in mortality and migration rates, contribute to aging. This perspective provides a careful and in-depth picture of aging and contributes to the debate concerning whether changes in births or mortality have had the strongest effect on population aging. When applied to Australia, the United States, and several European populations, the decomposition of the old-age dependency ratio shows that aging occurred in all populations and that changes in both births and mortality contributed to this aging. Analysis of these populations demonstrates that although they differed regarding which of these factors contributed more, changes in births prevailed as the more significant factor. In nearly all populations, migration decreased the rate of population aging.

State of South Dakota's Child: 2023.

In 2022, there was a decrease in births in the state with 111 fewer resident newborns than in the previous year. This represented a decrease of 1% of its white and 3.5% of its AIBO (American Indian, Black and Other) births. The 2022 birth rate per 1,000 population for the state (12.3) is higher than observed nationally (10.9) but matches its 2020 rate that was an historic low. Approximately 22% of all births in 2022 were AIBO and this percent of the state's entire birth cohort has decreased in the past several years. The American Indian contribution to the AIBO cohort has also decreased as its racial diversity has increased. The percent of births that are low birth weight has consistently been lower in South Dakota than nationally. An increase of 16 infant deaths in 2022 from 2021 and the decreased number of births led to an increase in the infant mortality rate (IMR = deaths in first year of life per 1,000 live births) from 6.3 to 7.8, but this 2022 IMR is not statistically significantly higher than its previous five-year mean. Further, the 2022 increase in the IMR was almost entirely among white infants with the post neonatal mortality rate (PNMR = deaths between 28 and 365 days of life) decreasing between these two years for AIBO infants. Nonetheless, the state's five year mean rates of death (2018-2022) are significantly higher for the AIBO than white infants for the neonatal (0-27 days) and post neonatal periods of the first year of life. Recently, however, the ratio of AIBO to white post neonatal mortality rate (PNMR) has decreased, but increased for the neonatal mortality rate (NMR). Infants in South Dakota are significantly more likely between 2018 and 2022 to die of congenital anomalies, sudden unexpected infant death (SUID), and accidents/homicides than in the United States in 2021. SUID remains the leading cause of post neonatal death and its risk may be decreased when babies are placed to sleep supine and alone in environments that are devoid of soft hazards.