An analysis of NHS 111 demand for primary care services: A retrospective cohort study.

The NHS 111 service triages over 16,650,745 calls per year and approximately 48% of callers are triaged to a primary care disposition, such as a telephone appointment with a general practitioner (GP). However, there has been little assessment of the ability of primary care services to meet this demand. If a timely service cannot be provided to patients, it could result in patients calling 999 or attending emergency departments (ED) instead. This study aimed to explore the patient journey for callers who were triaged to a primary care disposition, and the ability of primary care services to meet this demand. We obtained routine, retrospective data from the Connected Yorkshire research database, and identified all 111 calls between the 1st January 2021 and 31st December 2021 for callers registered with a GP in the Bradford or Airedale region of West Yorkshire, who were triaged to a primary care disposition. Subsequent healthcare system access (111, 999, primary and secondary care) in the 72 hours following the index 111 call was identified, and a descriptive analysis of the healthcare trajectory of patients was undertaken. There were 56,102 index 111 calls, and a primary care service was the first interaction in 26,690/56,102 (47.6%) of cases, with 15,470/26,690 (58%) commenced within the specified triage time frame. Calls to 999 were higher in the cohort who had no prior contact with primary care (58% vs 42%) as were ED attendances (58.2% vs 41.8), although the proportion of avoidable ED attendances was similar (10.5% vs 11.8%). Less than half of 111 callers triaged to a primary care disposition make contact with a primary care service, and even when they do, call triage time frames are frequently not met, suggesting that current primary care provision cannot meet the demand from 111.

Use of Mobile Technologies to Streamline Pretriage Patient Flow in the Emergency Department: Observational Usability Study.

BACKGROUND: In emergency departments (EDs), triage nurses are under tremendous daily pressure to rapidly assess the acuity level of patients and log the collected information into computers. With self-service technologies, patients could complete data entry on their own, allowing nurses to focus on higher-order tasks. Kiosks are a popular working example of such self-service technologies; however, placing a sufficient number of unwieldy and fixed machines demands a spatial change in the greeting area and affects pretriage flow. Mobile technologies could offer a solution to these issues. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to investigate the use of mobile technologies to improve pretriage flow in EDs. METHODS: The proposed stack of mobile technologies includes patient-carried smartphones and QR technology. The web address of the self-registration app is encoded into a QR code, which was posted directly outside the walk-in entrance to be seen by every ambulatory arrival. Registration is initiated immediately after patients or their proxies scan the code using their smartphones. Patients could complete data entry at any site on the way to the triage area. Upon completion, the result is saved locally on smartphones. At the triage area, the result is automatically decoded by a portable code reader and then loaded into the triage computer. This system was implemented in three busy metropolitan EDs in Shanghai, China. Both kiosks and smartphones were evaluated randomly while being used to direct pretriage patient flow. Data were collected during a 20-day period in each center. Timeliness and usability of medical students simulating ED arrivals were assessed with the After-Scenario Questionnaire. Usability was assessed by triage nurses with the Net Promoter Score (NPS). Observations made during system implementation were subject to qualitative thematic analysis. RESULTS: Overall, 5928 of 8575 patients performed self-registration on kiosks, and 7330 of 8532 patients checked in on their smartphones. Referring effort was significantly reduced (43.7% vs 8.8%; P<.001) and mean pretriage waiting times were significantly reduced (4.4, SD 1.7 vs 2.9, SD 1.0 minutes; P<.001) with the use of smartphones compared to kiosks. There was a significant difference in mean usability scores for "ease of task completion" (4.4, SD 1.5 vs 6.7, SD 0.7; P<.001), "satisfaction with completion time" (4.5, SD 1.4 vs 6.8, SD 0.6; P<.001), and "satisfaction with support" (4.9, SD 1.9 vs 6.6, SD 1.2; P<.001). Triage nurses provided a higher NPS after implementation of mobile self-registration compared to the use of kiosks (13.3% vs 93.3%; P<.001). A modified queueing model was identified and qualitative findings were grouped by sequential steps. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests patient-carried smartphones as a useful tool for ED self-registration. With increased usability and a tailored queueing model, the proposed system is expected to minimize pretriage waiting for patients in the ED.

Identification and Management of Pelvic Fractures in Prehospital and Emergency Department Settings.

INTRODUCTION: This study aims to describe the characteristics of patients with a pelvic fracture treated at a level 1 trauma center, the proportion of prehospital undertriage and the use of pelvic circumferential compression device (PCCD). METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort study. Prehospital and inhospital medical records of adults (≥16 y old) with a pelvic fracture who were treated at Hopital de l'Enfant-Jesus-CHU de Québec (Quebec City, Canada), a university-affiliated level 1 trauma center, between September 01, 2017 and September 01, 2021 were reviewed. Isolated hip or pubic ramus fracture were excluded. Data are presented using proportions and means with standard deviations. RESULTS: A total of 228 patients were included (males: 62.3%; mean age: 54.6 [standard deviation 21.1]). Motor vehicle collision (47.4%) was the main mechanism of injury followed by high-level fall (21.5%). Approximately a third (34.2%) needed at least one blood transfusion. Compared to those admitted directly, transferred patients were more likely to be male (73.0% versus 51.3%, P < 0.001) and to have a surgical procedure performed at the trauma center (71.3% versus 46.9%, P < 0.001). The proportion of prehospital undertriage was 22.6%. Overall, 17.1% had an open-book fracture and would have potentially benefited from a prehospital PCCD. Forty-six transferred patients had a PCCD applied at the referral hospital of which 26.1% needed adjustment. CONCLUSIONS: Pelvic fractures are challenging to identify in the prehospital environment and are associated with a high undertriage of 22.6%. Reducing undertriage and optimizing the use of PCCD are key opportunities to improve care of patients with a pelvic fracture.

Quality improvement initiative: improving obstetric triaging practices in a rural maternal hospital in central India.

Triaging of obstetric patients by emergency care providers is paramount. It helps provide appropriate and timely management to prevent further injury and complications. Standardised trauma acuity scales have limited applicability in obstetric triage. Specific obstetric triage index tools improve maternal and neonatal outcomes but remain underused. The aim was to introduce a validity-tested obstetric triage tool to improve the percentage of correctly triaged patients (correctly colour-coded in accordance with triage index tool and attended to within the stipulated time interval mandated by the tool) from the baseline of 49% to more than 90% through a quality improvement (QI) process.A team of nurses, obstetricians and postgraduates did a root cause analysis to identify the possible reasons for incorrect triaging of obstetric patients using process flow mapping and fish bone analysis. Various change ideas were tested through sequential Plan-Do-Study-Act (PDSA) cycles to address issues identified.The interventions included introduction and application of an obstetric triage index tool, training of triage nurses and residents. We implemented these interventions in eight PDSA cycles and observed outcomes by using run charts. A set of process, output and outcome indicators were used to track if changes made were leading to improvement.Proportion of correctly triaged women increased from the baseline of 49% to more than 95% over a period of 8 months from February to September 2020, and the results have been sustained in the last PDSA cycle, and the triage system is still sustained with similar results. The median triage waiting time reduced from the baseline of 40 min to less than 10 min. There was reduction in complications attributable to improper triaging such as preterm delivery, prolonged intensive care unit stay and overall morbidity. It can be thus concluded that a QI approach improved obstetric triaging in a rural maternity hospital in India.

Pediatric Critical Care Referrals for Tertiary Inpatient and Transport Services in Canada's Maritime Provinces: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: Accurate triage of children referred for tertiary pediatric critical care services is crucial to ensure optimal disposition and resource conservation. We aimed to explore the characteristics and level of care needs of children referred to tertiary pediatric critical care inpatient and transport services and the characteristics of referring physicians and hospitals to which these children present. METHODS: We conducted a 1-year retrospective cohort study of children (< 16 years) with documented referral to pediatric critical care and specialized transport services at a tertiary pediatric hospital from regional (24/7 pediatrician on-call coverage) and community (no pediatric specialty services) hospitals in Canada's Maritime provinces. RESULTS: We identified 205 documented referrals resulting in 183 (89%) transfers; 97 (53%) were admitted to the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU). Of 150 children transferred from centers with 24/7 pediatric specialist coverage, 45 (30%) were admitted to the tertiary hospital pediatric medical unit with no subsequent admission to the PICU. Of 20 children transferred from community hospitals and admitted to the tertiary hospital general pediatric medical unit, 9 (45%) bypassed proximate regional hospitals with specialist pediatric care capacity. The specialized pediatric critical care transport team performed 151 (83%) of 183 interfacility transfers; 83 (55%) were admitted to the PICU. CONCLUSION: One third of the children accepted for interfacility transfer after pediatric critical care referral were triaged to a similar level of care as could be provided at the sending or nearest regional hospital. Improved utilization of pediatric expertise in regional hospitals may reduce unnecessary pediatric transports and conserve valuable health care resources.

The Effects of Displaying the Time Targets of the Manchester Triage System to Emergency Department Personnel: Prospective Crossover Study.

BACKGROUND: The use of triage systems such as the Manchester Triage System (MTS) is a standard procedure to determine the sequence of treatment in emergency departments (EDs). When using the MTS, time targets for treatment are determined. These are commonly displayed in the ED information system (EDIS) to ED staff. Using measurements as targets has been associated with a decline in meeting those targets. OBJECTIVE: This study investigated the impact of displaying time targets for treatment to physicians on processing times in the ED. METHODS: We analyzed the effects of displaying time targets to ED staff on waiting times in a prospective crossover study, during the introduction of a new EDIS in a large regional hospital in Germany. The old information system version used a module that showed the time target determined by the MTS, while the new system version used a priority list instead. Evaluation was based on 35,167 routinely collected electronic health records from the preintervention period and 10,655 records from the postintervention period. Electronic health records were extracted from the EDIS, and data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and generalized additive models. We evaluated the effects of the intervention on waiting times and the odds of achieving timely treatment according to the time targets set by the MTS. RESULTS: The average ED length of stay and waiting times increased when the EDIS that did not display time targets was used (average time from admission to treatment: preintervention phase=median 15, IQR 6-39 min; postintervention phase=median 11, IQR 5-23 min). However, severe cases with high acuity (as indicated by the triage score) benefited from lower waiting times (0.15 times as high as in the preintervention period for MTS1, only 0.49 as high for MTS2). Furthermore, these patients were less likely to receive delayed treatment, and we observed reduced odds of late treatment when crowding occurred. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that it is beneficial to use a priority list instead of displaying time targets to ED personnel. These time targets may lead to false incentives. Our work highlights that working better is not the same as working faster.

Child acute illness presentation and referrals at primary health clinics in Malawi: a secondary analysis of ASPIRE.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to assess the prevalence, presentation and referral patterns of children with acute illness attending primary health centres (PHCs) in a low-resource setting. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: We conducted a secondary analysis of ASPIRE. Children presenting at eight PHCs in urban Blantyre district in southern Malawi with both recorded clinician and mHealth (non-clinician) triage data were included, and patient records from different data collection points along the patient healthcare seeking pathway were consolidated and analysed. RESULTS: Between April 2017 and September 2018, a total of 204 924 children were triaged, of whom 155 931 had both recorded clinician and mHealth triage data. The most common presenting symptoms at PHCs were fever (0.3%), cough (0.2%) and difficulty breathing (0.2%). The most common signs associated with referral for under-5 children were trauma (26.7%) and temperature (7.4%). The proportion of emergency and priority clinician triage were highest among young infants <2 months (0.2% and 81.4%, respectively). Of the 3004 referrals (1.9%), 1644 successfully reached the referral facility (54.7%). Additionally, 372 children were sent home from PHC who subsequently self-referred to the referral facility (18.7%). CONCLUSIONS: Fever and respiratory symptoms were the most common presenting symptoms, and trauma was the most common reason for referral. Rates of referral were low, and of successful referral were moderate. Self-referrals constituted a substantial proportion of attendance at the referral facility. Reducing gaps in care and addressing dropouts as well as self-referrals along the referral pathway could improve child health outcomes.

Refining ambulance clinical response models: The impact on ambulance response and emergency department presentations.

OBJECTIVE: The ambulance service in Victoria, Australia implemented a revised clinical response model (CRM) in 2016 which was designed to increase the diversion of low-acuity Triple Zero (000) calls to secondary telephone triage and reduce emergency ambulance dispatches. The present study evaluates the influence of the revised CRM on emergency ambulance response times and ED presentations. METHODS: A retrospective study of emergency calls for ambulance between 1 January 2015 and 31 December 2018. Ambulance data were linked with ED presentations occurring up to 48 h after contact. Interrupted time series analyses were used to evaluate the impact of the revised CRM. RESULTS: A total of 2 365 529 calls were included. The proportion allocated a Code 1 (time-critical, lights/sirens) dispatch decreased from 56.6 to 41.0% after implementation of the revised CRM. The proportion of calls not receiving an emergency ambulance increased from 10.4 to 19.6%. Interrupted time series analyses demonstrated an improvement in Code 1 cases attended within 15 min (Key Performance Indicator). However, for patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest or requiring lights and sirens transport to hospital, there was no improvement in response time performance. By the end of the study period, there was also no difference in the proportion of callers presenting to ED when compared with the estimated proportion assuming the revised CRM had not been implemented. CONCLUSION: The revised CRM was associated with improved Code 1 response time performance. However, there was no improvement in response times for high acuity patients, and no change in the proportion of callers presenting to ED.

Descriptive analysis and evaluation of Health Link referrals to the emergency department before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: In Alberta, Health Link (HL) provides a 24-h, nurse-staffed, phone resource to the public for health-care advice. HL directs callers to either seek care in the emergency department (ED), with a primary care provider or provide self-care at home. This work aims to describe HL ED referrals prior to and during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: Data from January 1, 2018-December 31, 2019, and July 1, 2020-June 30, 2022, were selected. HL calls were categorized as likely appropriate if the patient was referred and presented to the ED within 24 h and had a Canadian Triage and Acuity Scale (CTAS) of 1-3; or a CTAS of 4-5 and the patient was admitted, specialist consulted, or diagnostic imaging or laboratory tests were completed. The primary outcome was the percentage of likely appropriate referrals among all HL ED referrals. RESULTS: In the 2018-2019 and 2020-2022 samples, respectively, there were 845,372 and 832,730 calls. Of the 211,723 and 213,486 ED referrals, only 140,614 (66.4%) and 143,322 (67.1%) presented to an ED. Of these, 84.3 and 86.7 per 100 patient visits were categorized as likely appropriate referrals. Health Link referrals account for 3.2% and 3.8% of all ED visits. IMPACT: HL referrals to the ED represent only a small percentage of all ED visits. Based on our definition, most referrals by HL are likely appropriate. The COVID-19 pandemic does not appear to have altered the rates of calls to HL, the number of HL calls referred to the ED, nor the likely appropriateness of those referrals.

An Assessment of Clinical Accuracy of Vital Sign-based Triage Tools Among U.S. and Coalition Forces.

INTRODUCTION: Early appropriate allocation of resources for critically injured combat casualties is essential. This is especially important when inundated with an overwhelming number of casualties where limited resources must be efficiently allocated, such as during mass casualty events. There are multiple scoring systems utilized in the prehospital combat setting, including the shock index (SI), modified shock index (MSI), simple triage and rapid treatment (START), revised trauma score (RTS), new trauma score (NTS), Glasgow Coma Scale + age + pressure (GAP), and the mechanism + GAP (MGAP) score. The optimal score for application to the combat trauma population remains unclear. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This is a secondary analysis of a previously described dataset from the Department of Defense Trauma Registry from January 1, 2007 through March 17, 2020. We constructed univariable analyses to determine the area under the receiving operator characteristic (AUROC) for the scoring systems of interest. Our primary outcomes were early death (within 24 hours) or early massive transfusion, as defined by ≥3 units. RESULTS: There were 12,268 casualties that met inclusion criteria. There were 168 (1%) who died within the first 24 hours and 2082 (17%) that underwent significant transfusion within the first 24 hours. When assessing the predictive capabilities for death within 24 hours, the AUROCs were 0.72 (SI), 0.69 (MSI), 0.89 (START), 0.90 (RTS), 0.83 (NTS), 0.90 (GAP), and 0.91 (MGAP). The AUROCs for massive transfusion were 0.89 (SI), 0.89 (MSI), 0.82 (START), 0.81 (RTS), 0.83 (NTS), 0.85 (MGAP), and 0.86 (GAP). CONCLUSIONS: This study retrospectively applied seven triage tools to a database of 12,268 cases from the Department of Defense Trauma Registry to evaluate their performance in predicting early death or massive transfusion in combat. All scoring systems performed well with an AUROC >0.8 for both outcomes. Although the SI and MSI performed best for predicting massive transfusion (both had an AUROC of 0.89), they ranked last for assessment of mortality within 24 hours, with the other tools performing well. START, RTS, NTS, MGAP and GAP reliably identified early death and need for massive transfusion, with MGAP and GAP performing the best overall. These findings highlight the importance of assessing triage tools to best manage resources and ultimately preserve lives of traumatically wounded warfighters. Further studies are needed to explain the surprising performance discrepancy of the SI and MSI in predicting early death and massive transfusion.

Triaging of acutely ill children transported by ambulance. / Hastegradsvurdering av akutt syke barn transportert i ambulanse.

BACKGROUND: The Western Norway Regional Health Authority uses SATS Norge (SATS-N), a modified version of the South African Triage Scale, in all accident and emergency departments (A&E) and ambulance services in the region. The purpose of the study was to examine the validity of the paediatric component of SATS-N used for children transported to hospital by ambulance for emergency medical assistance. MATERIAL AND METHOD: We conducted a retrospective observational study which included all children in the age group 0-14 years, admitted by ambulance to A&E at Haukeland University Hospital for emergency medical assistance in the period from January to June 2020. The five triage levels in SATS-N were dichotomised to high triage level (the two highest triage categories) or low triage level (the three lowest triage categories). Sensitivity was calculated as the proportion of patients assigned to the high triage level among those who were directly transferred from A&E to a high dependency unit, and specificity as the proportion of patients assigned to the low triage level among those who were not directly transferred to a high dependency unit. RESULTS: Of a total of 303 patient transports, 270 (89 %) were triaged in the ambulance and 243 (80 %) in the A&E. In the pre-hospital and A&E settings, the sensitivity of SATS-N was 96 % and 88 %, and specificity was 46 % and 60 %, respectively. INTERPRETATION: For children admitted to hospital by ambulance, SATS-N had high sensitivity and low specificity for identifying patients who needed to be directly transferred from A&E to a high dependency unit.

The impact of emergency department crowding on admission decisions and patient outcomes.

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of emergency department (ED) crowding levels on patient admission decisions and outcomes. METHODS: A retrospective study was performed based on 2-year electronic health record data from a tertiary care hospital ED in Alberta, Canada. Using modified Poisson regression models, we studied the association of patient admission decisions and 7-day revisit probability with ED crowding levels measured by: 1) the total number of patients waiting and in treatment (ED census), 2) the number of boarding patients (boarder census), and 3) the average physician workload, calculated by the total number of ED patients divided by the number of physicians on duty (physician workload census). The control variables included age, gender, treatment area, triage level, and chief complaint. A subgroup analysis was performed to evaluate the heterogeneous effects among patients of different acuity levels. RESULTS: Our dataset included 141,035 patient visit records after cleaning from August 2013 to July 2015. The patient admission probability was positively correlated with ED census (relative risk [RR] = 1.006, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.005 to 1.007) and physician workload census (RR = 1.029, 95% CI = 1.027 to 1.032), but inversely correlated with boarder census (RR = 0.991, 95% CI = 0.989 to 0.993). We further found that the 7-day revisit probability of discharged patients was positively associated with boarder census (RR = 1.009, 95% CI = 1.004 to 1.014). CONCLUSIONS: Patient admission probability was found to be directly associated with ED census and physician workload census, but inversely associated with the boarder census. The effects of boarder census and physician workload census were stronger for patients of triage levels 3-5. Our results suggested that (i) insufficient physician staffing may lead to unnecessary patient admissions; (ii) too many boarding patients in ED leads to an increase in unsafe discharges, and as a result, an increase in 7-day revisit probability.

Pediatric Mild Traumatic Brain Injury: Who Can Be Managed at a Non-pediatric Trauma Center Hospital? A Systematic Review of the Literature.

BACKGROUND: Pediatric traumatic brain injury (TBI) affects about 475,000 children in the United States annually. Studies from the 1990s showed worse mortality in pediatric TBI patients not transferred to a pediatric trauma center (PTC), but did not examine mild pediatric TBI. Evidence-based guidelines used to identify children with clinically insignificant TBI who do not require head CT were developed by the Pediatric Emergency Care Applied Research Network (PECARN). However, which patients can be safely observed at a non-PTC is not directly addressed. METHODS: A systematic review of the literature was conducted, focusing on management of pediatric TBI and transfer decisions from 1990 to 2020. RESULTS: Pediatric TBI patients make up a great majority of preventable transfers and admissions, and comprise a significant portion of avoidable costs to the health care system. Majority of mild TBI patients admitted to a PTC following transfer do not require ICU care, surgical intervention, or additional imaging. Studies have shown that as high as 83% of mild pediatric TBI patients are discharged within 24 hrs. CONCLUSIONS: An evidence-based clinical practice algorithm was derived through synthesis of the data reviewed to guide transfer decision. The papers discussed in our systematic review largely concluded that transfer and admission was unnecessary and costly in pediatric patients with mild TBI who met the following criteria: blunt, no concern for NAT, low risk on PECARN assessment, or intermediate risk on PECARN with negative imaging or imaging with either isolated, nondisplaced skull fractures without ICH and/or EDH, or SDH <0.3 cm with no midline shift.

Analysis of Risk Factors of Hospital Emergency Nursing Based on Comprehensive Nursing Methods.

In order to improve the comprehensive nursing effect of the hospital emergency treatment, this paper analyzes the process of the hospital emergency treatment. In addition, this paper combines the possible risks to analyze the risk factors of the comprehensive nursing in the hospital emergency treatment and builds an intelligent analysis model based on the actual situation of the hospital emergency treatment. At the same time, this paper conducts a systematic survey of emergency services and gives the composition and structure of the system. In addition, this paper divides the business required by the system into modules, including registration module, doctor workstation, nurse workstation, query statistics module, decision-making module, and maintenance module. Finally, this paper suggests that in the process of the clinical triage, more ideas for improving the existing evaluation model should be proposed, and experience should be transformed into advantages, so as to improve emergency triage skills; establish an objective, quantitative, and scientific concept of emergency classification and triage; and fully realize scientific triage and precise triage.

Association of Postoperative Undertriage to Hospital Wards With Mortality and Morbidity.

Importance: Undertriaging patients who are at increased risk for postoperative complications after surgical procedures to low-acuity hospital wards (ie, floors) rather than highly vigilant intensive care units (ICUs) may be associated with risk of unrecognized decompensation and worse patient outcomes, but evidence for these associations is lacking. Objective: To test the hypothesis that postoperative undertriage is associated with increased mortality and morbidity compared with risk-matched ICU admission. Design, Setting, and Participants: This longitudinal cross-sectional study was conducted using data from the University of Florida Integrated Data Repository on admissions to a university hospital. Included patients were individuals aged 18 years or older who were admitted after a surgical procedure from June 1, 2014, to August 20, 2020. Data were analyzed from April through August 2021. Exposures: Ward admissions were considered undertriaged if their estimated risk for hospital mortality or prolonged ICU stay (ie, ≥48 hours) was in the top quartile among all inpatient surgical procedures according to a validated machine-learning model using preoperative and intraoperative electronic health record features available at surgical procedure end time. A nearest neighbors algorithm was used to identify a risk-matched control group of ICU admissions. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcomes of hospital mortality and morbidity were compared among appropriately triaged ward admissions, undertriaged wards admissions, and a risk-matched control group of ICU admissions. Results: Among 12 348 postoperative ward admissions, 11 042 admissions (89.4%) were appropriately triaged (5927 [53.7%] women; median [IQR] age, 59 [44-70] years) and 1306 admissions (10.6%) were undertriaged and matched with a control group of 2452 ICU admissions. The undertriaged group, compared with the control group, had increased median [IQR] age (64 [54-74] years vs 62 [50-73] years; P = .001) and increased proportions of women (649 [49.7%] women vs 1080 [44.0%] women; P < .001) and admitted patients with do not resuscitate orders before first surgical procedure (53 admissions [4.1%] vs 27 admissions [1.1%]); P < .001); 207 admissions that were undertriaged (15.8%) had subsequent ICU admission. In the validation cohort, hospital mortality and prolonged ICU stay estimations had areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.92 (95% CI, 0.91-0.93) and 0.92 (95% CI, 0.92-0.92), respectively. The undertriaged group, compared with the control group, had similar incidence of prolonged mechanical ventilation (32 admissions [2.5%] vs 53 admissions [2.2%]; P = .60), decreased median (IQR) total costs for admission ($26 900 [$18 400-$42 300] vs $32 700 [$22 700-$48 500]; P < .001), increased median (IQR) hospital length of stay (8.1 [5.1-13.6] days vs 6.0 [3.3-9.3] days, P < .001), and increased incidence of hospital mortality (19 admissions [1.5%] vs 17 admissions [0.7%]; P = .04), discharge to hospice (23 admissions [1.8%] vs 14 admissions [0.6%]; P < .001), unplanned intubation (45 admissions [3.4%] vs 49 admissions [2.0%]; P = .01), and acute kidney injury (341 admissions [26.1%] vs 477 admissions [19.5%]; P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: This study found that admitted patients at increased risk for postoperative complications who were undertriaged to hospital wards had increased mortality and morbidity compared with a risk-matched control group of admissions to ICUs. Postoperative undertriage was identifiable using automated preoperative and intraoperative data as features in real-time machine-learning models.

Pediatric age-adjusted shock index as a tool for predicting outcomes in children with or without traumatic brain injury.

BACKGROUND: The pediatric age-adjusted shock index (SIPA) accurately identifies severely injured children following trauma without accounting for neurological status. Understanding how the presence of traumatic brain injury (TBI) affects the generalizability of SIPA as a bedside triage tool is important given high rates of TBI in the pediatric trauma population. We hypothesized that SIPA combined with TBI (SIPAB+) would more accurately identify severely injured children. METHODS: Patients (1-18 years old) in the American College of Surgeons Pediatric Trauma Quality Improvement Program database (2014-2017) with an elevated SIPA upon arrival to a pediatric trauma center were included. Pediatric age-adjusted shock index combined with TBI was defined as elevated SIPA with Glasgow Coma Scale score of ≤8. Pediatric age-adjusted shock index without TBI (SIPAB-) was defined as elevated SIPA with Glasgow Coma Scale score of >9. Patients were stratified into SIPAB+ and SIPAB-. A subanalysis of patients with isolated brain injury and those with brain injury and multisystem injuries was also performed. Data were compared through univariate models and three separate logistic regression models. RESULTS: Overall, 25,068 had an elevated SIPA, with 12.3% classified as SIPAB+ and the remainder SIPAB-. Patients classified as SIPAB+ received more blood transfusions within 4 hours of injury and had higher mortality rates. On logistic regression, SIPAB+ patients had significantly higher odds of early blood transfusion and a combination of both. Mortality and early blood transfusion were also higher in SIPAB+ patients on subanalysis for patients with isolated TBI and those with multisystem injuries. CONCLUSION: The use of SIPAB+ as a bedside triage tool accurately identifies traumatically injured children at high risk for early blood transfusion and/or death while incorporating the presence of neurological injury. This is true for patients with isolated TBI and those with multisystem injury, indicating its utility in predicting outcomes for TBI patients with elevated SIPA regardless of presence of concomitant injuries. Incorporation of this as a triage tool should be considered to better predict resources in this population. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Prognostic, level III.

The potential impact of triage protocols on racial disparities in clinical outcomes among COVID-positive patients in a large academic healthcare system.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has had a devastating impact in the United States, particularly for Black populations, and has heavily burdened the healthcare system. Hospitals have created protocols to allocate limited resources, but there is concern that these protocols will exacerbate disparities. The sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score is a tool often used in triage protocols. In these protocols, patients with higher SOFA scores are denied resources based on the assumption that they have worse clinical outcomes. The purpose of this study was to assess whether using SOFA score as a triage tool among COVID-positive patients would exacerbate racial disparities in clinical outcomes. METHODS: We analyzed data from a retrospective cohort of hospitalized COVID-positive patients in the Yale-New Haven Health System. We examined associations between race/ethnicity and peak overall/24-hour SOFA score, in-hospital mortality, and ICU admission. Other predictors of interest were age, sex, primary language, and insurance status. We used one-way ANOVA and chi-square tests to assess differences in SOFA score across racial/ethnic groups and linear and logistic regression to assess differences in clinical outcomes by sociodemographic characteristics. RESULTS: Our final sample included 2,554 patients. Black patients had higher SOFA scores compared to patients of other races. However, Black patients did not have significantly greater in-hospital mortality or ICU admission compared to patients of other races. CONCLUSION: While Black patients in this sample of hospitalized COVID-positive patients had higher SOFA scores compared to patients of other races, this did not translate to higher in-hospital mortality or ICU admission. Results demonstrate that if SOFA score had been used to allocate care, Black COVID patients would have been denied care despite having similar clinical outcomes to white patients. Therefore, using SOFA score to allocate resources has the potential to exacerbate racial inequities by disproportionately denying care to Black patients and should not be used to determine access to care. Healthcare systems must develop and use COVID-19 triage protocols that prioritize equity.

Audit of laboratory sensitivity of human papillomavirus and cytology testing in a cervical screening program.

The globally recommended public health policy for cervical screening is primary human papillomavirus (HPV) screening with cytology triaging of positives. To ensure optimal quality of laboratory services we have conducted regular audits of cervical smears taken before cervical cancer or cancer in situ (CIN3+) within an HPV-based screening program. The central cervical screening laboratory of Stockholm, Sweden, identified cases of CIN3+ who had had a previous cervical screening test up to 3 years before and randomly selected 300 cervical liquid-based cytology (LBC) samples for auditing. HPV testing with Roche Cobas was performed either at screening or with biobanked samples. HPV negative samples and subsequent biopsies were retrieved and tested with modified general primer HPV PCR and, if still HPV-negative, the LBCs and biopsies were whole genome sequenced. The Cobas 4800 detected HPV in 1020/1052 (97.0%) LBC samples taken before CIN3+. Further analyses found HPV in 28 samples, with nine of those containing HPV types not targeted by the Cobas 4800 test. There were 4 specimens (4/1052, 0.4%) where no HPV was detected. By comparison, the proportion of CIN3+ cases that were positive in a previous cytology were 91.6%. We find that the routine HPV screening test had a sensitivity in the real-life screening program of 97.0%. Regular laboratory audits of cervical samples taken before CIN3+ can be readily performed within a real-life screening program and provide assurance that the laboratory of the real-life program has the expected performance.

Ageism in the COVID-19 pandemic: age-based discrimination in triage decisions and beyond.

Ageism has unfortunately become a salient phenomenon during the COVID-19 pandemic. In particular, triage decisions based on age have been hotly discussed. In this article, I first defend that, although there are ethical reasons (founded on the principles of benefit and fairness) to consider the age of patients in triage dilemmas, using age as a categorical exclusion is an unjustifiable ageist practice. Then, I argue that ageism during the pandemic has been fueled by media narratives and unfair assumptions which have led to an ethically problematic group homogenization of the older population. Finally, I conclude that an intersectional perspective can shed light on further controversies on ageism and triage in the post-pandemic future.