Absence of effects of widespread badger culling on tuberculosis in cattle.

Government policy in England aims for the elimination of bovine tuberculosis (bTB). This policy includes culling of European badger (Meles meles) to reduce cattle TB incidence. The rationale is based on a field trial, the Randomised Badger Culling Trial (RBCT) 1998-2005, which reported a substantial decrease in bTB herd incidence where badger culling had been implemented, in comparison to untreated control areas. The RBCT was undertaken because previous studies of reductions in badgers by culling, reported a possible association between bTB in badger and cattle, but none could directly show causation. The effect of intensive widespread (proactive) culling in the RBCT was reported in 2006 in the journal Nature. Analysis of an extensive badger removal programme in England since 2013 has raised concerns that culling has not reduced bTB herd incidence. The present study re-examined RBCT data using a range of statistical models. Most analytical options showed no evidence to support an effect of badger culling on bTB herd incidence 'confirmed' by visible lesions and/or bacterial culture post mortem following a comparative intradermal skin test (SICCT). However, the statistical model chosen by the RBCT study was one of the few models that showed an effect. Various criteria suggest that this was not an optimal model, compared to other analytical options available. The most likely explanation is that the RBCT proactive cull analysis over-fitted the data with a non-standard method to control for exposure giving it a poor predictive value. Fresh appraisal shows that there was insufficient evidence to conclude RBCT proactive badger culling affected bTB breakdown incidence. The RBCT found no evidence of an effect of culling on 'total' herd incidence rates. Total herd incidences include those confirmed as bTB at necropsy and those herds where there was at least one animal animal positive to the comparative intradermal skin test, the standard diagnostic test used for routine surveillance, but not confirmed at necropsy. This was also the case using the more suitable statistical models. Use only of 'confirmed' herd incidence data, together with a more recent (2013) published perception that RBCT data presented 'a strong evidence base….with appropriate detailed statistical or other quantitative analysis' should be reconsidered. The results of the present report are consistent with other analyses that were unable to detect any disease control benefits from badger culling in England (2013-2019). This study demonstrates one form of potential driver to the reproducibility crisis, in this case with disease control management in an increasingly intensified livestock industry.

Unveiling insights into bovine tuberculosis: A comprehensive review.

The frequent zoonotic disease known as "bovine tuberculosis" is brought on by the Mycobacterium bovis bacteria, which can infect both people and animals. The aim of this review article is to provide an explanation of the etiology, history, epidemiology, pathogenesis, clinical symptoms, diagnosis, transmission, risk factors, public health importance, economic impact, treatment, and control of bovine tuberculosis. Primarily, bovine tuberculosis affects cattle, but other animals may also be affected. Bovine tuberculosis is present throughout the world, with the exception of Antarctica. Cattle that contract bovine tuberculosis might suffer from a persistent, crippling illness. In the early stages of the disease, there are no symptoms. The tuberculin test is the primary method for detecting bovine tuberculosis in cows. Depending on its localized site in the infected animal, M. bovis can be found in respiratory secretions, milk, urine, feces, vaginal secretions, semen, feces, and exudates from lesions (such as lymph node drainage and some skin lesions). This illness generally lowers cattle productivity and could have a negative financial impact on the livestock business, particularly the dairy industry. The most effective first-line anti-tuberculosis chemotherapy consists of isoniazid, ethambutol, rifampin, and streptomycin. Second-line drugs used against bovine tuberculosis include ethionamide, capreomycin, thioacetazone, and cycloserine. To successfully control and eradicate bovine tuberculosis, developed nations have implemented routine testing and culling of infected animals under national mandatory programs.

Computing metrics to inform selection of candidate areas for a regionalized approach to bovine tuberculosis eradication in Ireland.

We describe the computation of metrics to inform the selection of areas for a regionalised approach to bovine tuberculosis eradication in Ireland. Our aim was not to recommend suitable regions but to elucidate the criteria used in metric selection and comment on the diversity of metric values amongst regions. The 26 counties of Ireland were compared using 20 metrics, grouped into five categories: region size and cattle population, herd fragmentation, cattle movement, bovine TB testing, badger population and control. Fragmentation metrics, measuring the proportion of herds with land in at least two counties, varied considerably by county, from 1% to 24 %.  Between 25 % and 92 % of moves into herds came from a different county, illustrating the likely disruption in trade that a regionalized approach could entail. Cattle movement networks were combined with a risk model to calculate the proportion of moves which would be deemed risky under a risk-based trading regime and these results were compared to a more traditional approach based on the herd type and test history of each herd, with many fewer moves potentially restricted using the latter approach. We show how correlation between region size and some of the metrics complicates their interpretation.

Assessing the feasibility of test-and-cull and test-and-segregation approaches for the control of high-prevalence bovine tuberculosis in Ethiopian intensive dairy farms.

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is endemic and has a substantial impact on the livestock sector in Ethiopia and other low and middle-income countries (LMICs). With a national emphasis on dairy farm intensification to boost milk production and spur economic growth, the incidence of bTB is anticipated to rise. However, Ethiopia, like other LMICs, lacks a comprehensive national bTB control strategy due to the economic and social infeasibility of traditional test-and-cull (TC) approaches. To inform the development of such a strategy, we evaluated the effectiveness and feasibility of TC and test-and-segregation (TSg) strategies for bTB control on Ethiopian dairy farms. A TC approach was used at Farm A [N = 62; comparative cervical test (CCT) > 4 mm, starting prevalence 11.3%] while TSg was implemented at Farm B (N = 45; CCT > 4 mm, prevalence 22.2%), with testing intervals of 2-4 months. Both strategies achieved a reduction in bTB prevalence to 0%, requiring seven rounds of TC over 18 months at Farm A, and five rounds of TSg over 12 months at Farm B's negative herd. The results show that adopting more sensitive thresholds [CCT > 0 mm or single cervical test (SCT) > 2 mm] during later rounds was pivotal in identifying and managing previously undetected infections, emphasizing the critical need for optimized diagnostic thresholds. Cost analysis revealed that TC was approximately twice as expensive as TSg, primarily due to testing, labor, and cow losses in TC, versus construction of new facilities and additional labor for TSg. This underscores the economic and logistical challenges of bTB management in resource-limited settings. Taken together, our study highlights an urgent need for the exploration of alternative approaches including TSg and or vaccination to mitigate within herd transmission and enable implementation of bTB control in regions where TC is not feasible.

A scoping review on bovine tuberculosis highlights the need for novel data streams and analytical approaches to curb zoonotic diseases.

Zoonotic diseases represent a significant societal challenge in terms of their health and economic impacts. One Health approaches to managing zoonotic diseases are becoming more prevalent, but require novel thinking, tools and cross-disciplinary collaboration. Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is one example of a costly One Health challenge with a complex epidemiology involving humans, domestic animals, wildlife and environmental factors, which require sophisticated collaborative approaches. We undertook a scoping review of multi-host bTB epidemiology to identify trends in species publication focus, methodologies, and One Health approaches. We aimed to identify knowledge gaps where novel research could provide insights to inform control policy, for bTB and other zoonoses. The review included 532 articles. We found different levels of research attention across episystems, with a significant proportion of the literature focusing on the badger-cattle-TB episystem, with far less attention given to tropical multi-host episystems. We found a limited number of studies focusing on management solutions and their efficacy, with very few studies looking at modelling exit strategies. Only a small number of studies looked at the effect of human disturbances on the spread of bTB involving wildlife hosts. Most of the studies we reviewed focused on the effect of badger vaccination and culling on bTB dynamics with few looking at how roads, human perturbations and habitat change may affect wildlife movement and disease spread. Finally, we observed a lack of studies considering the effect of weather variables on bTB spread, which is particularly relevant when studying zoonoses under climate change scenarios. Significant technological and methodological advances have been applied to bTB episystems, providing explicit insights into its spread and maintenance across populations. We identified a prominent bias towards certain species and locations. Generating more high-quality empirical data on wildlife host distribution and abundance, high-resolution individual behaviours and greater use of mathematical models and simulations are key areas for future research. Integrating data sources across disciplines, and a "virtuous cycle" of well-designed empirical data collection linked with mathematical and simulation modelling could provide additional gains for policy-makers and managers, enabling optimised bTB management with broader insights for other zoonoses.

'It is impossible to meet our officially bTB-free targets with the current testing policy'.

Neil J Watt and Keith Cutler argue that Defra's aim of achieving officially bovine tuberculosis (bTB)-free status for England by 2038 is unlikely to be met without a drastic change to testing and policy.

Is badger culling associated with risk compensation behaviour among cattle farmers?

BACKGROUND: Risk compensation theory suggests that behaviours are modified in response to interventions that remove risks by substituting them with other risky behaviours to maintain a 'risk equilibrium'. Alternatively, risk reduction interventions may result in spill-over behaviours that seek to minimise risks further. This paper assessed evidence for these behavioural risk responses among farmers in response to badger culling that seeks to remove the risk of bovine tuberculosis in cattle. METHODS: Data from the UK's randomised badger culling trial were re-analysed, comparing farmers' cattle movement practices in proactive and reactive culling areas and control areas. Analysis compared cattle movements during and after the trial using zero-inflated negative binomial regression. RESULTS: The analysis found no strong evidence of risk compensation behaviours among farmers who experienced proactive culling. However, strong evidence for a reduction in cattle movements in reactive culling areas was found. The results indicate high levels of inertia within farming systems in relation to cattle purchasing. LIMITATIONS: Data do not account for the risk of cattle purchases and reflect previous policy regimens. Evidence from recent badger culling interventions should be analysed. CONCLUSION: Proactive badger culling was not associated with risk compensation behaviours, while reactive badger culling was associated with decreased risk taking among farmers.

Private veterinarians' views of the Irish bovine TB eradication programme.

There is limited understanding of Private Veterinary Practitioners' (PVPs) perceptions of, opinions about and attitudes towards the Irish Bovine Tuberculosis (bTB) eradication programme. Understanding their attitudes and behaviors towards the bTB eradication programme is both timely and crucial as their actions have a great influence on the effectiveness and sustainability of the programme itself. To date, PVPs have been consulted about how they view their role in the programme, however, less is known about the challenges they face in carrying out good quality bTB testing, and how likely they feel the programme will succeed to eradicate bTB in the future. The results from this study represent a good part of the probable sphere of perceptions, behaviors, attitudes and knowledge of the respective study population and several key critical points that are believed to have hindered the success of the bTB eradication programme in Ireland to date. This study progressed our understanding of the reasons for why farmers are demotivated by and disconnected with the Irish bTB eradication programme according to PVPs, how PVPs feel challenged in their role carrying out bTB testing, and their views on how, if possible, bTB can be eradicated in the future. Their insights will influence how the Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine (DAFM) interacts with PVPs and farmers in the future with respect to the bTB and the eradication programme.

BCG vaccination reduces bovine tuberculosis transmission, improving prospects for elimination.

Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) is a routinely used vaccine for protecting children against Mycobacterium tuberculosis that comprises attenuated Mycobacterium bovis. BCG can also be used to protect livestock against M. bovis; however, its effectiveness has not been quantified for this use. We performed a natural transmission experiment to directly estimate the rate of transmission to and from vaccinated and unvaccinated calves over a 1-year exposure period. The results show a higher indirect efficacy of BCG to reduce transmission from vaccinated animals that subsequently become infected [74%; 95% credible interval (CrI): 46 to 98%] compared with direct protection against infection (58%; 95% CrI: 34 to 73%) and an estimated total efficacy of 89% (95% CrI: 74 to 96%). A mechanistic transmission model of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) spread within the Ethiopian dairy sector was developed and showed how the prospects for elimination may be enabled by routine BCG vaccination of cattle.

Vaccines to control tuberculosis in cattle.

The age-old cattle disease has resisted rigorous control, but the BCG vaccine may do better.