The cost of typhoid illness in low- and middle-income countries, a scoping review of the literature.

Typhoid fever is responsible for a substantial health burden in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). New means of prevention became available with the prequalification of typhoid conjugate vaccines (TCV) by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2018. Policymakers require evidence to inform decisions about TCV. The economic burden related to typhoid fever can be considerable, both for healthcare providers and households, and should be accounted for in the decision-making process. We aimed to understand the breadth of the evidence on the cost of typhoid fever by undertaking a scoping review of the published literature. We searched scientific databases with terms referring to typhoid fever cost of illness to identify published studies for the period January 1st 2000 to May 24th 2024. We also conferred with stakeholders engaged in typhoid research to identify studies pending completion or publication. We identified 13 published studies reporting empirical data for 11 countries, most of them located in Asia. The total cost of a typhoid episode ranged from $23 in India to $884 in Indonesia (current 2022 United States Dollar [USD]). Household expenditures related to typhoid fever were characterized as catastrophic in 9 studies. We identified 5 studies pending completion or publication, which will provide evidence for 9 countries, most of them located in Africa. Alignment in study characteristics and methods would increase the usefulness of the evidence generated and facilitate cross-country and regional comparison. The gap in evidence across regions should be mitigated when studies undertaken in African countries are published. There remains a lack of evidence on the cost to treat typhoid in the context of increasing antimicrobial resistance. Decision-makers should consider the available evidence on the economic burden of typhoid, particularly as risk factors related to antimicrobial resistance and climate change increase typhoid risk. Additional studies should address typhoid illness costs, using standardized methods and accounting for the costs of antimicrobial resistance.

Typhoidal Salmonella human challenge studies: ethical and practical challenges and considerations for low-resource settings.

Typhoidal Salmonella is a major global problem affecting more than 12 million people annually. Controlled human infection models (CHIMs) in high-resource settings have had an important role in accelerating the development of conjugate vaccines against Salmonella Typhi.The typhoidal Salmonella model has an established safety profile in over 2000 volunteers in high-income settings, and trial protocols, with modification, could be readily transferred to new study sites. To date, a typhoidal Salmonella CHIM has not been conducted in a low-resource setting, although it is being considered.Our article describes the challenges posed by a typhoidal Salmonella CHIM in the high-resource setting of Oxford and explores considerations for an endemic setting.Development of CHIMs in endemic settings is scientifically justifiable as it remains unclear whether findings from challenge studies performed in high-resource non-endemic settings can be extrapolated to endemic settings, where the burden of invasive Salmonella is highest. Volunteers are likely to differ across a range of important variables such as previous Salmonella exposure, diet, intestinal microbiota, and genetic profile. CHIMs in endemic settings arguably are ethically justifiable as affected communities are more likely to gain benefit from the study. Local training and research capacity may be bolstered.Safety was of primary importance in the Oxford model. Risk of harm to the individual was mitigated by careful inclusion and exclusion criteria; close monitoring with online diary and daily visits; 24/7 on-call staffing; and access to appropriate hospital facilities with capacity for in-patient admission. Risk of harm to the community was mitigated by exclusion of participants with contact with vulnerable persons; stringent hygiene and sanitation precautions; and demonstration of clearance of Salmonella infection from stool following antibiotic treatment.Safety measures should be more stringent in settings where health systems, transport networks, and sanitation are less robust.We compare the following issues between high- and low-resource settings: scientific justification, risk of harm to the individual and community, benefits to the individual and community, participant understanding, compensation, and regulatory requirements.We conclude that, with careful consideration of country-specific ethical and practical issues, a typhoidal Salmonella CHIM in an endemic setting is possible.

How Can the Typhoid Fever Surveillance in Africa and the Severe Typhoid Fever in Africa Programs Contribute to the Introduction of Typhoid Conjugate Vaccines?

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization now recommends the use of typhoid conjugate vaccines (TCVs) in typhoid-endemic countries, and Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, added TCVs into the portfolio of subsidized vaccines. Data from the Severe Typhoid Fever in Africa (SETA) program were used to contribute to TCV introduction decision-making processes, exemplified for Ghana and Madagascar. METHODS: Data collected from both countries were evaluated, and barriers to and benefits of introduction scenarios are discussed. No standardized methodological framework was applied. RESULTS: The Ghanaian healthcare system differs from its Malagasy counterpart: Ghana features a functioning insurance system, antimicrobials are available nationwide, and several sites in Ghana deploy blood culture-based typhoid diagnosis. A higher incidence of antimicrobial-resistant Salmonella Typhi is reported in Ghana, which has not been identified as an issue in Madagascar. The Malagasy people have a low expectation of provided healthcare and experience frequent unavailability of medicines, resulting in limited healthcare-seeking behavior and extended consequences of untreated disease. CONCLUSIONS: For Ghana, high typhoid fever incidence coupled with spatiotemporal heterogeneity was observed. A phased TCV introduction through an initial mass campaign in high-risk areas followed by inclusion into routine national immunizations prior to expansion to other areas of the country can be considered. For Madagascar, a national mass campaign followed by routine introduction would be the introduction scenario of choice as it would protect the population, reduce transmission, and prevent an often-deadly disease in a setting characterized by lack of access to healthcare infrastructure. New, easy-to-use diagnostic tools, potentially including environmental surveillance, should be explored and improved to facilitate identification of high-risk areas.

Toward Control? The Prospects and Challenges of Typhoid Conjugate Vaccine Introduction.

With a newly World Health Organization (WHO)-prequalified typhoid conjugate vaccine (TCV), Gavi funding for eligible countries, and a WHO policy recommendation for TCV use, now is the time for countries to introduce TCVs as part of an integrated typhoid control program, particularly in light of the increasing burden of antimicrobial resistance. Continued vaccine development efforts will lead to secure supply of low-cost vaccines, and ongoing vaccine studies will provide critical vaccine performance data and inform optimal deployment strategies, in both routine use and in outbreak settings. TCV programs should include thoughtful communication planning and community engagement to counter vaccine hesitancy.

Opportunities for Typhoid Vaccination in India.

Typhoid fever, an infection with potentially life threatening complications, is responsible for 11 to 21 million illness episodes and 145,000 to 161,000 deaths each year globally. India is a high burden country and also faces the challenge of antimicrobial resistance, which further narrows treatment options. This review analyzes the need for typhoid vaccination in India, and appraises the evidence on efficacy, immunogenicity and cost-effectiveness of currently available typhoid vaccines. In 2018, WHO prequalified the first typhoid conjugate vaccine Vi-TT and recommended it for children aged 6-23 months, along with measles vaccine at 9 or 15 months of age through the expanded programme on immunization. With the high endemicity of typhoid in India and the proven cost-effectiveness of the conjugate vaccine, a roll-out of typhoid vaccine should be considered at the earliest.

Cost-effectiveness of routine and campaign use of typhoid Vi-conjugate vaccine in Gavi-eligible countries: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Typhoid fever is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries. In 2017, WHO recommended the programmatic use of typhoid Vi-conjugate vaccine (TCV) in endemic settings, and Gavi, The Vaccine Alliance, has pledged support for vaccine introduction in these countries. Country-level health economic evaluations are now needed to inform decision-making. METHODS: In this modelling study, we compared four strategies: no vaccination, routine immunisation at 9 months, and routine immunisation at 9 months with catch-up campaigns to either age 5 years or 15 years. For each of the 54 countries eligible for Gavi support, output from an age-structured transmission-dynamic model was combined with country-specific treatment and vaccine-related costs, treatment outcomes, and disability weights to estimate the reduction in typhoid burden, identify the strategy that maximised average net benefit (ie, the optimal strategy) across a range of country-specific willingness-to-pay (WTP) values, estimate and investigate the uncertainties surrounding our findings, and identify the epidemiological conditions under which vaccination is optimal. FINDINGS: The optimal strategy was either no vaccination or TCV immunisation including a catch-up campaign. Routine vaccination with a catch-up campaign to 15 years of age was optimal in 38 countries, assuming a WTP value of at least US$200 per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted, or assuming a WTP value of at least 25% of each country's gross domestic product (GDP) per capita per DALY averted, at a vaccine price of $1·50 per dose (but excluding Gavi's contribution according to each country's transition phase). This vaccination strategy was also optimal in 48 countries assuming a WTP of at least $500 per DALY averted, in 51 with assumed WTP values of at least $1000, in 47 countries assuming a WTP value of at least 50% of GDP per capita per DALY averted, and in 49 assuming a minimum of 100%. Vaccination was likely to be cost-effective in countries with 300 or more typhoid cases per 100 000 person-years. Uncertainty about the probability of hospital admission (and typhoid incidence and mortality) had the greatest influence on the optimal strategy. INTERPRETATION: Countries should establish their own WTP threshold and consider routine TCV introduction, including a catch-up campaign when vaccination is optimal on the basis of this threshold. Obtaining improved estimates of the probability of hospital admission would be valuable whenever the optimal strategy is uncertain. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Research Foundation-Flanders, and the Belgian-American Education Foundation.

A Review of the Economic Evidence of Typhoid Fever and Typhoid Vaccines.

Typhoid places a substantial economic burden on low- and middle-income countries. We performed a literature review and critical overview of typhoid-related economic issues to inform vaccine introduction. We searched 4 literature databases, covering 2000-2017, to identify typhoid-related cost-of-illness (COI) studies, cost-of-delivery studies, cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs), and demand forecast studies. Manual bibliographic searches of reviews revealed studies in the gray literature. Planned studies were identified in conference proceedings and through partner organization outreach. We identified 29 published, unpublished, and planned studies. Published COI studies revealed a substantial burden in Asia, with hospitalization costs alone ranging from $159 to $636 (in 2016 US$) in India, but there was less evidence for the burden in Africa. Cost-of-delivery studies are largely unpublished, but 1 study found that $671 000 in government investments would avert $60 000 in public treatment costs. CEA evidence was limited, but generally found targeted vaccination programs to be cost-effective. This review revealed insufficient economic evidence for vaccine introduction. Countries considering vaccine introduction should have access to relevant economic evidence to aid in decision-making and planning. Planned studies will fill many of the existing gaps in the literature.

Typhoid conjugate vaccines: a new tool in the fight against antimicrobial resistance.

Typhoid fever is an acute systemic infectious disease responsible for an estimated 12-20 million illnesses and over 150 000 deaths annually. In March, 2018, a new recommendation was issued by WHO for the programmatic use of typhoid conjugate vaccines in endemic countries. Health economic analyses of typhoid vaccines have informed funding decisions and national policies regarding vaccine rollout. However, by focusing only on averted typhoid cases and their associated costs, traditional cost-effectiveness analyses might underestimate crucial benefits of typhoid vaccination programmes, because the potential effect of typhoid vaccines on the treatment of patients with non-specific acute febrile illnesses is not considered. For every true case of typhoid fever, three to 25 patients without typhoid disease are treated with antimicrobials unnecessarily, conservatively amounting to more than 50 million prescriptions per year. Antimicrobials for suspected typhoid might therefore be an important selective pressure for the emergence and spread of antimicrobial resistance globally. We propose that large-scale, more aggressive typhoid vaccination programmes-including catch-up campaigns in children up to 15 years of age, and vaccination in lower incidence settings-have the potential to reduce the overuse of antimicrobials and thereby reduce antimicrobial resistance in many bacterial pathogens. Funding bodies and national governments must therefore consider the potential for broad reductions in antimicrobial use and resistance in decisions related to the rollout of typhoid conjugate vaccines.

Economic evaluation of typhoid - a review.

INTRODUCTION: To evaluate the potential economic value and likely impact of a hypothetical rapid test in its early stages of development requires the use of models. The model structure and the type of model (dynamic/static) to employ are key considerations. The aim of the review was to explore the literature on typhoid economic evaluations and to explore the types of models that have been previously adopted in this setting for test-treat evaluations and to capture data on model inputs that may be useful for a de novo model. AREAS COVERED: A systematic review was conducted to identify economic evaluations focused on typhoid in established literature databases. Eight studies were identified and included for narrative synthesis. The review has revealed that there have been relatively few economic evaluations that have focused on typhoid fever, all of which have focused on the impact of interventions at the population level (vaccination) but not the individual level (test-treat strategies). EXPERT COMMENTARY: Under certain circumstances, either a static model or a transmission dynamic model may be appropriate in the evaluation of an intervention for typhoid fever. Typhoid test-treat modeling represents a gray area where further work is needed.

Comparison of Strategies and Incidence Thresholds for Vi Conjugate Vaccines Against Typhoid Fever: A Cost-effectiveness Modeling Study.

Background: Typhoid fever remains a major public health problem globally. While new Vi conjugate vaccines hold promise for averting disease, the optimal programmatic delivery remains unclear. We aimed to identify the strategies and associated epidemiologic conditions under which Vi conjugate vaccines would be cost-effective. Methods: We developed a dynamic, age-structured transmission and cost-effectiveness model that simulated multiple vaccination strategies with a typhoid Vi conjugate vaccine from a societal perspective. We simulated 10-year vaccination programs with (1) routine immunization of infants (aged <1 year) through the Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI) and (2) routine immunization of infants through the EPI plus a 1-time catch-up campaign in school-aged children (aged 5-14 years). In the base case analysis, we assumed a 0.5% case-fatality rate for all cases of clinically symptomatic typhoid fever and defined strategies as highly cost-effective by using the definition of a low-income country (defined as a country with a gross domestic product of $1045 per capita). We defined incidence as the true number of clinically symptomatic people in the population per year. Results: Vi conjugate typhoid vaccines were highly cost-effective when administered by routine immunization activities through the EPI in settings with an annual incidence of >50 cases/100000 (95% uncertainty interval, 40-75 cases) and when administered through the EPI plus a catch-up campaign in settings with an annual incidence of >130 cases/100000 (95% uncertainty interval, 50-395 cases). The incidence threshold was sensitive to the typhoid-related case-fatality rate, carrier contribution to transmission, vaccine characteristics, and country-specific economic threshold for cost-effectiveness. Conclusions: Typhoid Vi conjugate vaccines would be highly cost-effective in low-income countries in settings of moderate typhoid incidence (50 cases/100000 annually). These results were sensitive to case-fatality rates, underscoring the need to consider factors contributing to typhoid mortality (eg, healthcare access and antimicrobial resistance) in the global vaccination strategy.

A forecast of typhoid conjugate vaccine introduction and demand in typhoid endemic low- and middle-income countries to support vaccine introduction policy and decisions.

A Typhoid Conjugate Vaccine (TCV) is expected to acquire WHO prequalification soon, which will pave the way for its use in many low- and middle-income countries where typhoid fever is endemic. Thus it is critical to forecast future vaccine demand to ensure supply meets demand, and to facilitate vaccine policy and introduction planning. We forecasted introduction dates for countries based on specific criteria and estimated vaccine demand by year for defined vaccination strategies in 2 scenarios: rapid vaccine introduction and slow vaccine introduction. In the rapid introduction scenario, we forecasted 17 countries and India introducing TCV in the first 5 y of the vaccine's availability while in the slow introduction scenario we forecasted 4 countries and India introducing TCV in the same time period. If the vaccine is targeting infants in high-risk populations as a routine single dose, the vaccine demand peaks around 40 million doses per year under the rapid introduction scenario. Similarly, if the vaccine is targeting infants in the general population as a routine single dose, the vaccine demand increases to 160 million doses per year under the rapid introduction scenario. The demand forecast projected here is an upper bound estimate of vaccine demand, where actual demand depends on various factors such as country priorities, actual vaccine introduction, vaccination strategies, Gavi financing, costs, and overall product profile. Considering the potential role of TCV in typhoid control globally; manufacturers, policymakers, donors and financing bodies should work together to ensure vaccine access through sufficient production capacity, early WHO prequalification of the vaccine, continued Gavi financing and supportive policy.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of typhoid conjugate vaccines in five endemic low- and middle-income settings.

BACKGROUND: Typhoid fever remains endemic in low- and middle-income countries. Programmatic use of existing vaccines is limited, but upcoming typhoid conjugate vaccines (TCVs) could warrant wider use. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of five TCV delivery strategies in three urban areas (Delhi and Kolkata, India and Nairobi, Kenya) and two rural settings (Lwak, Kenya and Dong Thap, Vietnam) with varying incidence. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We evaluated routine infant vaccination with and without catch-up campaigns among older individuals. We used a dynamic model of typhoid transmission to simulate cases, hospitalizations, deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALY) lost, treatment and intervention costs. We estimated cost-effectiveness (in terms of cost in international dollars (I$) per DALY averted) from the healthcare payer perspective, and assessed how it was influenced by uncertain model parameters. Compared to no vaccination, routine infant vaccination at I$1/dose was cost-saving in Delhi and Dong Thap, "very cost-effective" in Kolkata and Nairobi, and "cost-effective" in Lwak according to World Health Organization thresholds. However, routine vaccination was not the optimal strategy compared to strategies that included a catch-up campaign, which yielded the highest probability of being cost-saving in Delhi and Dong Thap and were most likely to provide a return on investment above a willingness-to-pay threshold of I$1440 in Kolkata, I$2300 in Nairobi, and I$5360 in Lwak. Vaccine price impacted the optimal strategy, and the number of doses required and rate of hospitalization were the primary sources of uncertainty. CONCLUSION: Routine vaccination with TCV would be cost-effective in most settings, and additional one-time catch-up campaigns would also be economically justified.

A review of typhoid fever transmission dynamic models and economic evaluations of vaccination.

Despite a recommendation by the World Health Organization (WHO) that typhoid vaccines be considered for the control of endemic disease and outbreaks, programmatic use remains limited. Transmission models and economic evaluation may be informative in decision making about vaccine programme introductions and their role alongside other control measures. A literature search found few typhoid transmission models or economic evaluations relative to analyses of other infectious diseases of similar or lower health burden. Modelling suggests vaccines alone are unlikely to eliminate endemic disease in the short to medium term without measures to reduce transmission from asymptomatic carriage. The single identified data-fitted transmission model of typhoid vaccination suggests vaccines can reduce disease burden substantially when introduced programmatically but that indirect protection depends on the relative contribution of carriage to transmission in a given setting. This is an important source of epidemiological uncertainty, alongside the extent and nature of natural immunity. Economic evaluations suggest that typhoid vaccination can be cost-saving to health services if incidence is extremely high and cost-effective in other high-incidence situations, when compared to WHO norms. Targeting vaccination to the highest incidence age-groups is likely to improve cost-effectiveness substantially. Economic perspective and vaccine costs substantially affect estimates, with disease incidence, case-fatality rates, and vaccine efficacy over time also important determinants of cost-effectiveness and sources of uncertainty. Static economic models may under-estimate benefits of typhoid vaccination by omitting indirect protection. Typhoid fever transmission models currently require per-setting epidemiological parameterisation to inform their use in economic evaluation, which may limit their generalisability. We found no economic evaluation based on transmission dynamic modelling, and no economic evaluation of typhoid vaccination against interventions such as improvements in sanitation or hygiene.

Economic evaluation of typhoid vaccination in a prolonged typhoid outbreak setting: the case of Kasese district in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Vaccination has been increasingly promoted to help control epidemic and endemic typhoid fever in high-incidence areas. Despite growing recognition that typhoid incidence in some areas of sub-Saharan Africa is similar to high-incidence areas of Asia, no large-scale typhoid vaccination campaigns have been conducted there. We performed an economic evaluation of a hypothetical one-time, fixed-post typhoid vaccination campaign in Kasese, a rural district in Uganda where a large, multi-year outbreak of typhoid fever has been reported. METHODS: We used medical cost and epidemiological data retrieved on-site and campaign costs from previous fixed-post vaccination campaigns in Kasese to account for costs from a public sector health care delivery perspective. We calculated program costs and averted disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and medical costs as a result of vaccination, to calculate the cost of the intervention per DALY and case averted. RESULTS: Over the 3 years of projected vaccine efficacy, a one-time vaccination campaign was estimated to avert 1768 (90%CI: 684-4431) typhoid fever cases per year and a total of 3868 (90%CI: 1353-9807) DALYs over the duration of the immunity conferred by the vaccine. The cost of the intervention per DALY averted was US$ 484 (90%CI: 18-1292) and per case averted US$ 341 (90%CI: 13-883). CONCLUSION: We estimated the vaccination campaign in this setting to be highly cost-effective, according to WHO's cost-effective guidelines. Results may be applicable to other African settings with similar high disease incidence estimates.

Effect of travel distance on household demand for typhoid vaccines: implications for planning.

Typhoid fever causes millions of illnesses and hundreds of thousands of deaths yearly. Vaccinations would mitigate this problem, but the users would probably have to pay some or most of the cost. Several willingness-to-pay studies have assessed the effect of price on private demand to provide a basis for financial planning of campaigns, but the effect of travel distance, which is a potentially important determinant of demand, has not been studied. This paper thus has two objectives: (i) conduct a willingness-to-pay survey to assess the effects of distance, price and other variables on the private demand for typhoid vaccinations in a rural township of China where a campaign is under consideration; and (ii) embed the demand function in a mathematical model to address three planning questions; should each village have its own clinic, would one clinic be best or should the number of clinics be something in-between? Private vaccine demand was found to depend on and be inelastic with respect to both price and travel distance. A 1-km increase in distance caused the number of vaccinations demanded to decrease the same as a $0.5 increase in price. Thus, the marginal rate of substitution was $0.5 per km. A single clinic would be best for the township only if diseconomies of scale in supplying vaccinations exceeded the marginal rate of substitution. Otherwise, multiple clinics close to users would be optimal. Thus, deciding the number, location and capacities of clinics for vaccination planning is as important as deciding what price(s) to charge.

Desirability for a typhoid fever vaccine among rural residents, Pemba Island, Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Surveillance data indicate that Salmonella enterica serotype Typhi (S. Typhi) is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in Africa. With limited anticipated short-term improvements in sanitation and water infrastructure, targeted vaccination campaigns may be an important prevention tool for typhoid fever. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted with 435 randomly selected households in four rural villages on Pemba Island, Tanzania. A dichotomous 'readiness to pay' variable was created to assess vaccine desirability. Data analyses included univariate and bivariate descriptive statistics and binary logistic regression. Bivariate outcomes (ANOVA, t-tests, and chi-square) and odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals are reported. RESULTS: A total of 66% respondents stated that they would pay for a typhoid fever vaccine in the future. Readiness to pay was not significantly associated with household expenditures. Readiness to pay was associated with use of local Primary Health Care Units (PHCUs) compared to use of cottage or district hospitals (OR 1.8 [95% CI, 1.2-2.7]: p=.007) and with knowledge of someone being sick from typhoid fever (OR 2.2 [95% CI, 1.0-4.5]: p=.039). Respondents perceiving prevention measures as more effective (OR 1.0 [95% CI, 1.0-1.2]: p=.009) were also more likely ready to pay. Preferred methods of communication of information about a typhoid fever vaccine included broadcasting via microphone ('miking'), radio, and door-to-door visits. CONCLUSIONS: With rapid increase in numbers of licensed and promising vaccines, policy makers and health administrators are faced with decisions regarding allocation of scarce health resources for competing interventions. Community residents need to be informed about diseases which may not be readily recognized, diagnosed, and treated. Perceived vulnerability to the disease may increase likelihood of vaccine desirability. A better local understanding of typhoid fever is needed for general prevention measures, increasing treatment access, and future vaccination campaigns.

An optimization model for reducing typhoid cases in developing countries without increasing public spending.

This article considers the investment case for using the Vi polysaccharide vaccine in developing countries from two perspectives: reducing typhoid cases and limiting new health care spending. A case study is presented using data from South and Southeast Asia. The purpose of the paper, however, is to draw broad implications that may apply to developing countries in general. Typical consumer demand functions developed from stated preference household surveys in South and Southeast Asia are used to predict probabilities of adults and children purchasing typhoid vaccinations at different prices. These functions are incorporated in a formal mathematical model. Using data from the recent literature for South and Southeast Asia for typhoid incidence, Vi vaccine effectiveness, public cost of illness, and vaccination program cost, three mass vaccination policy alternatives are evaluated: charging adults and children different (optimal) prices, charging uniform prices, and providing free vaccines. Assuming differential pricing is politically feasible, different vaccine prices for children and adults would maximize the number of typhoid cases avoided from a mass vaccination program if the public sector faces a budget constraint on spending for the vaccination program. However, equal prices for children and adults produce very similar results, and they might be more readily accepted by the community. Alternatively, if vaccines are free, the number of cases is not significantly reduced compared to either pricing policy, but a large external financial contribution from government or donors would be required. A Monte Carlo simulation explores the effects of uncertain parameters on vaccination program outcomes.