Development and validation of an overdose risk prediction tool using prescription drug monitoring program data.

OBJECTIVES: To develop and validate a machine-learning algorithm to predict fatal overdose using Pennsylvania Prescription Drug Monitoring Program (PDMP) data. METHODS: The training/testing (n = 3020,748) and validation (n = 2237,701) cohorts included Pennsylvania residents with a prescription dispensing from February 2018-September 2021. Potential predictors (n = 222) were measured in the 6 months prior to a random index date. Using a gradient boosting machine, we developed a 20-variable model to predict risk of fatal drug overdose in the 6 months after the index date. RESULTS: Beneficiaries in the training (n = 1,812,448), testing (n = 1,208,300), and validation (n = 2,237,701) samples had similar age, with low rates of fatal overdose during 6-month follow up (0.12%, 0.12%, 0.04%, respectively). The validation c-statistic was 0.86 for predicting fatal overdose using 20 PDMP variables. When ranking individuals based on risk score, the prediction model more accurately identified fatal overdose at 6 months compared to using opioid dosage or opioid/benzodiazepine overlap, although the percentage of individuals in the highest risk percentile who died at 6 months was less than 1%. CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS: A gradient boosting machine algorithm predicting fatal overdose derived from twenty variables performed well in discriminating risk across testing and validation samples, improving on single factor risk measures like opioid dosage.

Assessment of Probable Opioid Use Disorder Using Electronic Health Record Documentation.

Importance: Electronic health records are a potentially valuable source of information for identifying patients with opioid use disorder (OUD). Objective: To evaluate whether proxy measures from electronic health record data can be used reliably to identify patients with probable OUD based on Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (Fifth Edition) (DSM-5) criteria. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cross-sectional study analyzed individuals within the Geisinger health system who were prescribed opioids between December 31, 2000, and May 31, 2017, using a mixed-methods approach. The cohort was identified from 16 253 patients enrolled in a contract-based, Geisinger-specific medication monitoring program (GMMP) for opioid use, including patients who maintained or violated contract terms, as well as a demographically matched control group of 16 253 patients who were prescribed opioids but not enrolled in the GMMP. Substance use diagnoses and psychiatric comorbidities were assessed using automated electronic health record summaries. A manual medical record review procedure using DSM-5 criteria for OUD was completed for a subset of patients. The analysis was conducted beginning from June 5, 2017, until May 29, 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was the prevalence of OUD as defined by proxy measures for DSM-5 criteria for OUD as well as the prevalence of comorbidities among patients prescribed opioids within an integrated health system. Results: Among the 16 253 patients enrolled in the GMMP (9309 women [57%]; mean [SD] age, 52 [14] years), OUD diagnoses as defined by diagnostic codes were present at a much lower rate than expected (291 [2%]), indicating the necessity for alternative diagnostic strategies. The DSM-5 criteria for OUD can be assessed using manual medical record review; a manual review of 200 patients in the GMMP and 200 control patients identifed a larger percentage of patients with probable moderate to severe OUD (GMMP, 145 of 200 [73%]; and control, 27 of 200 [14%]) compared with the prevalence of OUD assessed using diagnostic codes. Conclusions and Relevance: These results suggest that patients with OUD may be identified using information available in the electronic health record, even when diagnostic codes do not reflect this diagnosis. Furthermore, the study demonstrates the utility of coding for DSM-5 criteria from medical records to generate a quantitative DSM-5 score that is associated with OUD severity.

The use of the orbitofrontal H-sulcus as a reference frame for value signals.

Understanding the factors that drive organization and function of the brain is an enduring question in neuroscience. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), structure and function have been mapped in primary sensory cortices based on knowledge of the organizational principles that likely drive a given region (e.g., aspects of visual form in primary visual cortex and sound frequency in primary auditory cortex) and knowledge of underlying cytoarchitecture. The organizing principles of higher-order brain areas that encode more complex signals, such as the orbitofrontal cortex (OFC), are less well understood. One fundamental component that underlies the many functions of the OFC is the ability to compute the reward or value of a given object. There is evidence of variability in the spatial location of responses to specific categories of objects (or value of said objects) within the OFC, and several reference frames have been proposed to explain this variability, including topographic spatial gradients that correspond to axes of primary versus secondary rewards and positive versus negative reinforcers. One potentially useful structural morphometric reference frame in the OFC is the "H-sulcus," a pattern formed by medial orbital, lateral orbital and transverse orbital sulci. In 48 human subjects, we use a structural morphometric tracing procedure to localize functional activation along the H-sulcus for face and food stimuli. We report the novel finding that food-selective responses are consistently found within the caudal portion of the medial orbital sulcus, but no consistency within the H-sulcus for response to face stimuli. These results suggest that sulcogyral anatomy of the H-sulcus may be an important morphological metric that contributes to the organizing principles of the OFC response to certain stimulus categories, including food.

Distinct and overlapping fusiform activation to faces and food.

The fusiform cortex is a part of the ventral visual stream and is typically associated with face processing. Indeed, a subregion of the fusiform has been named the "fusiform face area" or FFA, based on its robust response to faces relative to other objects. In a separate literature, appetizing food has also been shown to activate bilateral fusiform cortex, yet no study to date has directly compared face and food responses within the same paradigm. Here, we use functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to compare face and food responses in ventral visual cortex and other regions that are typically associated with face processing. We present evidence that a region of the left fusiform cortex (typically associated with face processing) actually responds equally to faces and food. We go on to describe the similarities and differences in location of face- and food-responses in the fusiform, the relationship of fusiform activation to body mass index (BMI), and resting state connectivity of face- and food-selective fusiform. Results are interpreted within a model in which motivational relevance or value influence fusiform response.