Potential Celiac Disease in Children: Health Status on A Long-Term Gluten-Containing Diet.

Potential celiac disease (PCD) is a clinical condition characterised by the presence of a positive CD-specific serology and a normal intestinal architecture. Asymptomatic PCD patients are generally advised to continue on a gluten-containing diet (GCD), but long-term risks of this approach have never been explored. In the present study, we aimed to investigate nutritional and autoimmune complications possibly developing overtime in a cohort of asymptomatic PCD children on a GCD. We compared children's parameters of growth, nutritional status, and autoimmunity between the time of diagnosis and on the occasion of their last medical check, after a long-term gluten-containing diet. Altogether, we collected data from 171 PCD children with a mean follow-up time of 3 years (range 0.35-15.3 years). During follow-up, although patients did not reduce their amount of daily gluten intake, their anti-tissue transglutaminase (anti-TG2) antibodies spontaneously and significantly decreased. Most parameters analysed had not changed during follow-up (height centile, ferritin, albumin, cholesterol, calcium, alkaline phosphatase, parathormone, and vitamin D) or even improved significantly (weight and BMI centile, haemoglobin, blood iron, HDL, glycaemia, and HbA1C, p < 0.05), always remaining within the limit of normality. Equally, autoantibodies for other concomitant autoimmune disorders did not increase overtime. Similar results were obtained excluding from analysis patients who had stopped producing anti-TG2 and those with a follow-up time < 3 years. Our pilot study has provided reassuring results regarding the maintenance of a gluten-containing diet in asymptomatic PCD children, even when long-term follow-up was considered.

Early diet and the risk of coeliac disease. An update 2024 position paper by the ESPGHAN special interest group on coeliac disease.

This position paper by the European Society for Paediatric Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Nutrition (ESPGHAN) Special Interest Group on Coeliac Disease (SIG-CD) presents an update to the 2016 recommendations concerning early diet and the risk of coeliac disease (CD). This update adheres to the policy that mandates reviewing guidelines every 5 years, particularly when new data emerge. The 2024 statements and recommendations are essentially similar to the 2016 recommendations. Breastfeeding, whether any amount, exclusive, or of any duration, does not reduce the risk of developing CD. Introducing gluten into an infant's diet at any time between completed 4 months (≥17 weeks) and 12 months of age does not affect the cumulative incidence of CD, although earlier introduction may lead to earlier seroconversion and CD. In observational studies involving cohorts with a known risk for CD, consuming a high amount of gluten compared to a low amount during weaning and in the subsequent childhood years-specifically the first 2-3 years, and even up to 5 years in some studies-was associated with an increased risk for CD. However, the specific optimal amounts of gluten consumption remain undetermined due to insufficient evidence on safe thresholds, and the impact of restricting gluten in the diet of healthy children of unknown risk for CD is unknown. Thus, any recommendation on the gluten amount is currently unjustifiable for the general population and infants with known HLA risk types. There is no specific guidance on the type of gluten-containing foods to be introduced at weaning.

Impact of 12-SNP and 6-SNP Polygenic Scores on Predisposition to High LDL-Cholesterol Levels in Patients with Familial Hypercholesterolemia.

BACKGROUND: Familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) comprises high LDL-cholesterol (LDL-c) levels and high cardiovascular disease risk. In the absence of pathogenic variants in causative genes, a polygenic basis was hypothesized. METHODS: In a population of 418 patients (excluding homozygotes) with clinical suspicion of FH, the FH-causative genes and the regions of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) included in 12-SNP and 6-SNP scores were sequenced by next-generation sequencing, allowing for the detection of pathogenic variants (V+) in 220 patients. To make a comparison, only patients without uncertain significance variants (V-/USV-) were considered (n = 162). RESULTS: Higher values of both scores were observed in V+ than in V-. Considering a cut-off leading to 80% of V-/USV- as score-positive, a lower prevalence of patients positive for both 12-SNP and 6-SNP scores was observed in V+ (p = 0.010 and 0.033, respectively). Mainly for the 12-SNP score, among V+ patients, higher LDL-c levels were observed in score-positive (223 mg/dL -IQR 187-279) than in negative patients (212 mg/dL -IQR 162-240; p = 0.006). Multivariate analysis confirmed the association of scores and LDL-c levels independently of age, sex, and presence of pathogenic variants and revealed a greater association in children. CONCLUSIONS: The 12-SNP and 6-SNP polygenic scores could explain hypercholesterolemia in patients without pathogenic variants as well as the variability of LDL-c levels among patients with FH-causative variants.

Diagnostic Delay of Celiac Disease in Childhood.

Importance: The extent and factors associated with risk of diagnostic delay in pediatric celiac disease (CD) are poorly understood. Objectives: To investigate the diagnostic delay of CD in childhood, and to assess factors associated with this delay. Design, Setting, and Participants: Multicenter, retrospective, cross-sectional study (2010-2019) of pediatric (aged 0-18 years) patients with CD from 13 pediatric tertiary referral centers in Italy. Data were analyzed from January to June 2023. Main Outcomes and Measures: The overall diagnostic delay (ie, the time lapse occurring from the first symptoms or clinical data indicative of CD and the definitive diagnosis), further split into preconsultation and postconsultation diagnostic delay, were described. Univariable and multivariable linear regression models for factors associated with diagnostic delay were fitted. Factors associated with extreme diagnostic delay (ie, 1.5 × 75th percentile) and misdiagnosis were assessed. Results: A total of 3171 patients with CD were included. The mean (SD) age was 6.2 (3.9) years; 2010 patients (63.4%) were female; and 10 patients (0.3%) were Asian, 41 (1.3%) were Northern African, and 3115 (98.3%) were White. The median (IQR) overall diagnostic delay was 5 (2-11) months, and preconsultation and postconsultation diagnostic delay were 2 (0-6) months and 1 (0-3) month, respectively. The median (IQR) extreme overall diagnostic delay (586 cases [18.5%]) was 11 (5-131) months, and the preconsultation and postconsultation delays were 6 (2-120) and 3 (1-131) months, respectively. Patients who had a first diagnosis when aged less than 3 years (650 patients [20.5%]) showed a shorter diagnostic delay, both overall (median [IQR], 4 [1-7] months for patients aged less than 3 years vs 5 [2-12] months for others) and postconsultation (median [IQR], 1 [0-2] month for patients aged less than 3 years vs 2 [0-4] months for others). A shorter delay was registered in male patients, both overall (median [IQR], 4 [1-10] months for male patients vs 5 [2-12] months for female patients) and preconsultation (median [IQR], 1 [0-6] month for male patients vs 2 [0-6] months for female patients). Family history of CD was associated with lower preconsultation delay (odds ratio [OR], 0.59; 95% CI, 0.47-0.74) and lower overall extreme diagnostic delay (OR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.56-0.99). Neurological symptoms (78 patients [21.5%]; OR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.03-1.78), gastroesophageal reflux (9 patients [28.1%]; OR, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.02-3.42), and failure to thrive (215 patients [22.6%]; OR, 1.62; 95% CI, 1.31-2.00) showed a more frequent extreme diagnostic delay. A previous misdiagnosis (124 patients [4.0%]) was more frequently associated with gastroesophageal reflux disease, diarrhea, bloating, abdominal pain, constipation, fatigue, osteopenia, and villous atrophy (Marsh 3 classification). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional study of pediatric CD, the diagnostic delay was rather short. Some factors associated with risk for longer diagnostic delay and misdiagnosis emerged, and these should be addressed in future studies.

IL-10-producing regulatory cells impact on celiac disease evolution.

Celiac Disease (CD) is a T-cell mediated disorder caused by immune response to gluten, although the mechanisms underlying CD progression are still elusive. We analyzed immune cell composition, plasma cytokines, and gliadin-specific T-cell responses in patients with positive serology and normal intestinal mucosa (potential-CD) or villous atrophy (acute-CD), and after gluten-free diet (GFD). We found: an inflammatory signature and the presence of circulating gliadin-specific IFN-γ+ T cells in CD patients regardless of mucosal damage; an increased frequency of IL-10-secreting dendritic cells (DC-10) in the gut and of circulating gliadin-specific IL-10-secreting T cells in potential-CD; IL-10 inhibition increased IFN-γ secretion by gliadin-specific intestinal T cells from acute- and potential-CD. On GFD, inflammatory cytokines normalized, while IL-10-producing T cells accumulated in the gut. We show that IL-10-producing cells are fundamental in controlling pathological T-cell responses to gluten: DC-10 protect the intestinal mucosa from damage and represent a marker of potential-CD.

Diagnosis of Seronegative and Ultrashort Celiac Disease.

In its conventional form, celiac disease (CeD) is characterized by both positive serology and flat villi in the duodenum, and is well known by gastroenterologists and general practitioners. The aim of this review was to shed light on 2 neglected and not yet well-defined celiac phenotypes, that is, seronegative and ultrashort CeD. Seronegative CeD can be suspected in the presence of flat villi, positive HLA-DQ2 and/or HLA-DQ8, and the absence of CeD antibodies. After ruling out other seronegative enteropathies, the diagnosis can be confirmed by both clinical and histologic improvements after 1 year of a gluten-free diet. Ultrashort CeD is characterized by the finding of flat villi in the duodenal bulb in the absence of mucosal damage in the distal duodenum and with serologic positivity. Data on the prevalence, clinical manifestations, histologic lesions, genetic features, and outcome of seronegative and ultrashort CeD are inconclusive due to the few studies available and the small number of patients diagnosed. Some additional diagnostic tools have been developed recently, such as assessing intestinal transglutaminase 2 deposits, flow cytometry technique, microRNA detection, or proteomic analysis, and they seem to be useful in the identification of complex cases. Further cooperative studies are highly desirable to improve the knowledge of these 2 still-obscure variants of CeD.

Maintaining the gluten-free diet: The key to improve glycemic metrics in youths with type 1 diabetes and celiac disease.

AIMS: Gluten-free diets (GFD) were considered as high glycemic index and/or high content of saturated fats; this could affect keeping good metabolic control in individuals with both type 1 diabetes (T1D) and celiac disease (CD). Our objective was to analyze time in range and other continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) metrics with real-time CGM systems, in youths with T1D and CD, compared to those with T1D only. METHODS: An observational case-control study, comparing youths aged 8-18 years with T1D and CD, with people with T1D only was performed. The degree of maintaining GFD was assessed through anti-tissue transglutaminase antibodies and dietary interview, and maintaining Mediterranean diet through the KIDMED questionnaire. RESULTS: 86 youths with T1D and CD, 167 controls with T1D only, were included in the study and the two groups reported similar real-time CGM metrics. Among the first group, 29 % were not completely maintaining GFD and compared to people with T1D only they showed higher hyperglycemia rates (% time above range: 38.72 ± 20.94 vs 34.34 ± 20.94; P = 0.039). CONCLUSIONS: Individuals with T1D and CD who maintain GFD presented similar glucose metrics compared to youths with T1D only. Individuals not strictly maintaining GFD presented higher hyperglycemia rates.

Circulating anti-hypothalamus antibodies in celiac patients: tissue transglutaminase friend or foe?

Celiac disease (CD) is an autoimmune disease with inflammatory characteristics, having a condition of chronic malabsorption, affecting approximately 1% of the population at any age. In recent years, a concrete correlation between eating disorders and CD has emerged. Hypothalamus plays a central role in determining eating behaviour, regulating appetite and, consequently, food intake. One hundred and ten sera from celiac patients (40 active and 70 following a gluten-free diet) were tested for the presence of autoantibodies against primate hypothalamic periventricular neurons by immunofluorescence and by a home-made ELISA assay. In addition, ghrelin was measured by ELISA. As control, 45 blood serums from healthy age matched were analysed. Among active CD, all patients resulted positive for anti-hypothalamus autoantibodies and sera showed significantly higher levels of ghrelin. All of the free-gluten CD were negative for anti-hypothalamus autoantibodies and had low levels of ghrelin, as well as healthy controls. Of interest, anti-hypothalamic autoantibodies directly correlate with anti-tTG amounts and with mucosal damage. In addition, competition assays with recombinant tTG showed a drastically reduction of anti-hypothalamic serum reactivity. Finally, ghrelin levels are increased in CD patients and correlated with anti-tTG autoantibodies and anti-hypothalamus autoantibodies. This study demonstrates for the first time the presence of anti-hypothalamus antibodies and their correlation with the severity of the CD. It also allows us to hypothesize the role of tTG as a putative autoantigen expressed by hypothalamic neurons.

Tolerogenic IL-10-engineered dendritic cell-based therapy to restore antigen-specific tolerance in T cell mediated diseases.

Tolerogenic dendritic cells play a critical role in promoting antigen-specific tolerance via dampening of T cell responses, induction of pathogenic T cell exhaustion and antigen-specific regulatory T cells. Here we efficiently generate tolerogenic dendritic cells by genetic engineering of monocytes with lentiviral vectors co-encoding for immunodominant antigen-derived peptides and IL-10. These transduced dendritic cells (designated DCIL-10/Ag) secrete IL-10 and efficiently downregulate antigen-specific CD4+ and CD8+ T cell responses from healthy subjects and celiac disease patients in vitro. In addition, DCIL-10/Ag induce antigen-specific CD49b+LAG-3+ T cells, which display the T regulatory type 1 (Tr1) cell gene signature. Administration of DCIL-10/Ag resulted in the induction of antigen-specific Tr1 cells in chimeric transplanted mice and the prevention of type 1 diabetes in pre-clinical disease models. Subsequent transfer of these antigen-specific T cells completely prevented type 1 diabetes development. Collectively these data indicate that DCIL-10/Ag represent a platform to induce stable antigen-specific tolerance to control T-cell mediated diseases.

Antibody Profile, Gene Expression and Serum Cytokines in At-Risk Infants before the Onset of Celiac Disease.

Immunological events that precede the development of villous atrophy in celiac disease (CeD) are still not completely understood. We aimed to explore CeD-associated antibody production (anti-native gliadin (AGA), anti-deamidated gliadin (DGP) and anti-tissue transglutaminase (anti-tTG)) in infants at genetic risk for CeD from the Italian cohorts of the PREVENT-CD and Neocel projects, as well as the relationship between antibody production and systemic inflammation. HLA DQ2 and/or DQ8 infants from families with a CeD case were followed from birth. Out of 220 at-risk children, 182 had not developed CeD by 6 years of age (CTRLs), and 38 developed celiac disease (CeD). The profiles of serum cytokines (INFγ, IL1ß, IL2, IL4, IL6, IL10, IL12p70, IL17A and TNFα) and the expression of selected genes (FoxP3, IL10, TGFß, INFγ, IL4 and IL2) were evaluated in 46 children (20 CeD and 26 CTRLs). Among the 182 healthy CTRLs, 28 (15.3%) produced high levels of AGA-IgA (AGA+CTRLs), and none developed anti-tTG-IgA or DGP-IgA, compared to 2/38 (5.3%) CeD infants (Chi Sq. 5.97, p = 0.0014). AGAs appeared earlier in CTRLs than in those who developed CeD (19 vs. 28 months). Additionally, the production of AGAs in CeD overlapped with the production of DGP and anti-tTG. In addition, gene expression as well as serum cytokine levels discriminated children who developed CeD from CTRLs. In conclusion, these findings suggest that the early and isolated production of AGA-IgA antibodies is a CeD-tolerogenic marker and that changes in gene expression and cytokine patterns precede the appearance of anti-tTG antibodies.

Systematic review: early feeding practices and the risk of coeliac disease. A 2022 update and revision.

BACKGROUND: The effects of early feeding practices on the risk of coeliac disease (CD) remain debated. AIMS: To update evidence on these practices on the risk of CD and/or CD-related autoimmunity (CDA), defined as anti-transglutaminase or anti-endomysial antibody positivity METHODS: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library to May 2022 for randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and observational studies. RESULTS: We included 36 publications (30 studies). In the population at genetic risk of developing CD (HLA DQ2/DQ8-positive), exclusive or any breastfeeding and longer breastfeeding duration did not reduce the risk of developing CD/CDA during childhood. While a meta-analysis of four case-control studies showed a decreased risk for CD when gluten was introduced during breastfeeding, this was not shown in RCTs and cohort studies. Age at gluten introduction was not associated with cumulative CD/CDA risk, although two RCTs suggested that earlier gluten introduction was associated with earlier CDA appearance. Evidence from six observational studies suggests that consumption of a higher amount of gluten at weaning and/or thereafter may increase CD risk. There is insufficient evidence to determine the amount of gluten associated with an increased CD/CDA risk. Regarding whether infant feeding practices modulate the risk conferred by different HLA genotypes results were inconsistent. CONCLUSIONS: For the population at genetic risk of CD, breastfeeding and age at gluten introduction have no effect on its cumulative incidence during childhood. There is some evidence for an effect of the amount of gluten consumed at weaning and/or thereafter on CD/CDA risk.

Prevalence of functional gastrointestinal disorders in children with celiac disease on different types of gluten-free diets.

BACKGROUND: Functional gastrointestinal disorders (FGIDs) are common during the pediatric age. FGIDs are not related to biochemical or structural abnormalities. However, since they have a high prevalence, several studies have evaluated an overlap between FGIDs and organic diseases. Individuals with celiac disease (CD) have been shown to be at an increased risk for functional abdominal pain, even if they adhere well to a gluten-free diet (GFD). Little information is available for the pediatric age group. The aims of our study were to evaluate the prevalence of FGIDS in CD children 1 year after diagnosis and to compare the prevalence of FGIDs in CD children on a GFD with processed foods compared with those on a GFD with natural products. AIM: To assess the prevalence of FGIDs in children with CD after 1 year of follow-up and to compare the prevalence of FGIDs in children with CD on a GFD with processed foods and in children on a GFD with natural products. METHODS: We recruited pediatric patients aged 1-18 years with a new CD diagnosis. Participants were randomized to two groups: Group A on a GFD with processed foods (diet 1); and group B on a GFD with natural products (diet 2). Clinical monitoring, diet assessment and the questionnaire on pediatric gastrointestinal symptoms-Rome IV version were performed at diagnosis (T0) and after 12 mo of follow-up (T1). Dietary intake was assessed using a 3-d food diary record. Data from the diaries were evaluated using WinFood nutrient analysis software. We assessed the prevalence of FGIDs at T1 and the correlation with the type of GFD. RESULTS: We registered 104 CD children, with 55 patients in group A (53.0%) and 49 patients in group B (47.0%). Initially, 30 of the 55 (54.5%) CD children were symptomatic in group A, while 25 of 49 (51.0%) were symptomatic in group B. At T1, in spite of a low or negative serology for CD, FGIDs prevalence was 10/55 (18.0%) in group A and 8/49 (16.3%) in group B, with no statistically significant difference between the two groups (P = 0.780). At T1 the macro- and micronutrient intake was similar across the two groups with no significant differences in nutrient analysis. However, in both groups at T1 we found that a lower prevalence of FGIDs (P = 0.055) was associated with an inferior caloric (odds ratio = 0.99, 95% confidence interval: 0.99-1.00) and fat (odds ratio = 0.33, 95% confidence interval: 0.65-0.95) intake. CONCLUSION: Our results showed that CD children on a GFD have gastrointestinal symptoms with an elevated prevalence of FGIDs. Our study suggests that developing FGIDs may be linked to caloric intake and percentage of food fat, but it does not change between a GFD with processed foods or a GFD with natural products. However, long-term monitoring is required to evaluate a correlation between FGIDs and various types of GFDs.

Mucosal Healing in Celiac Disease: Villous Architecture and Immunohistochemical Features in Children on a Long-Term Gluten Free Diet.

Considerable heterogeneity exists across studies assessing intestinal mucosal recovery in celiac (CD) patients on a gluten-free diet (GFD). We aimed at investigating histological and immunohistochemical features in CD patients on a long-term GFD and to correlate them to the GFD duration. Morphometrical and immunohistochemical analysis were retrospectively performed on duodenal biopsies in three groups of children: 33 on a long-term (>2 years) GFD (GFD-group), four of which remained seropositive despite dietary adherence, 31 with villous atrophy (ACD-group) and 76 heathy, non-celiac (CTR-group). Moreover, in the GFD-group, we correlated immunohistochemical alterations to the GFD duration. The villous to crypt (V/C) ratio significantly improved after the GFD and completely normalized in all patients, becoming even higher than in the CTR-group (median value 3.2 vs. 3, p = 0.007). In parallel, the number of CD3+ and TCRγδ+ cells in the epithelium were significantly reduced in the GFD compared to ACD patients, even if they remained higher than in the CTR-group (p < 0.05). In contrast, CD25+ cells in the lamina propria significantly decreased after the GFD (p < 0.05) and become comparable to the CTR-group (p = 0.9). In the GFD-group there was no difference in the immunohistochemical parameters between seropositive and seronegative patients and alterations did not correlate to GFD length. In conclusion, a GFD is able to both restore a normal V/C ratio and reduce inflammation, but the epithelium maintains some stigmata of the disorder, such as an increased number of CD3+ and TCRγδ+ cells. These alterations persist regardless of the duration of the GFD.

Pivotal Role of Inflammation in Celiac Disease.

Celiac disease (CD) is an immune-mediated enteropathy triggered in genetically susceptible individuals by gluten-containing cereals. A central role in the pathogenesis of CD is played by the HLA-restricted gliadin-specific intestinal T cell response generated in a pro-inflammatory environment. The mechanisms that generate this pro-inflammatory environment in CD is now starting to be addressed. In vitro study on CD cells and organoids, shows that constant low-grade inflammation is present also in the absence of gluten. In vivo studies on a population at risk, show before the onset of the disease and before the introduction of gluten in the diet, cellular and metabolic alterations in the absence of a T cell-mediated response. Gluten exacerbates these constitutive alterations in vitro and in vivo. Inflammation, may have a main role in CD, adding this disease tout court to the big family of chronic inflammatory diseases. Nutrients can have pro-inflammatory or anti-inflammatory effects, also mediated by intestinal microbiota. The intestine function as a crossroad for the control of inflammation both locally and at distance. The aim of this review is to discuss the recent literature on the main role of inflammation in the natural history of CD, supported by cellular fragility with increased sensitivity to gluten and other pro-inflammatory agents.

Guidelines of the Italian societies of gastroenterology on the diagnosis and management of coeliac disease and dermatitis herpetiformis.

INTRODUCTION: Coeliac disease and dermatitis herpetiformis are immune-mediated diseases triggered by the consumption of gluten in genetically predisposed individuals. These guidelines were developed to provide general practitioners, paediatricians, gastroenterologists, and other clinicians with an overview on the diagnosis, management and follow-up of coeliac patients and those with dermatitis herpetiformis. METHODS: Guidelines were developed by the Italian Societies of Gastroenterology. Following a systematic literature review, the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation methodology was used to assess the certainty of the evidence. Statements and recommendations were developed by working groups consisting of gastroenterologists and a paediatrician with expertise in this field. RESULTS: These guidelines provide a practical guidance for the diagnosis, management and follow-up of coeliac patients and dermatitis herpetiformis in children and adults, both in primary care and in specialist settings. We developed four sections on diagnosis, gluten-free diet, follow-up and risk of complications in adults, one section focused on diagnosis and follow-up in children and one on the diagnosis and management of dermatitis herpetiformis. CONCLUSIONS: These guidelines may support clinicians to improve the diagnosis and management of patients with coeliac disease.

ESPGHAN Position Paper on Management and Follow-up of Children and Adolescents With Celiac Disease.

OBJECTIVES: To gather the current evidence and to offer recommendations for follow-up and management. METHODS: The Special Interest Group on Celiac Diseases of the European Society of Paediatric Gastroenterology Hepatology and Nutrition formulated ten questions considered to be essential for follow-up care. A literature search (January 2010-March 2020) was performed in PubMed or Medline. Relevant publications were identified and potentially eligible studies were assessed. Statements and recommendations were developed and discussed by all coauthors. Recommendations were voted upon: joint agreement was set as at least 85%. RESULTS: Publications (n = 2775) were identified and 164 were included. Using evidence or expert opinion, 37 recommendations were formulated on: The need to perform follow-up, its frequency and what should be assessed, how to assess adherence to the gluten-free diet, when to expect catch-up growth, how to treat anemia, how to approach persistent high serum levels of antibodies against tissue-transglutaminase, the indication to perform biopsies, assessment of quality of life, management of children with unclear diagnosis for which a gluten-challenge is indicated, children with associated type 1 diabetes or IgA deficiency, cases of potential celiac disease, which professionals should perform follow-up, how to improve the communication to patients and their parents/caregivers and transition from pediatric to adult health care. CONCLUSIONS: We offer recommendations to improve follow-up of children and adolescents with celiac disease and highlight gaps that should be investigated to further improve management.

Prediction Models for Celiac Disease Development in Children From High-Risk Families: Data From the PreventCD Cohort.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Screening for celiac disease (CD) is recommended in children with affected first-degree relatives (FDR). However, the frequency of screening and at what age remain unknown. The aims of this study were to detect variables influencing the risk of CD development and develop and validate clinical prediction models to provide individualized screening advice. METHODS: We analyzed prospective data from the 10 years of follow-up of the PreventCD-birth cohort involving 944 genetically predisposed children with CD-FDR. Variables significantly influencing the CD risk were combined to determine a risk score. Landmark analyses were performed at different ages. Prediction models were created using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analyses, backward elimination, and Harrell's c-index for discrimination. Validation was done using data from the independent NeoCel cohort. RESULTS: In March 2019, the median follow-up was 8.3 years (22 days-12.0 years); 135/944 children developed CD (mean age, 4.3 years [range, 1.1-11.4]). CD developed significantly more often in girls (P = .005) and in Human Leukocyte Antigen (HLA)-DQ2 homozygous individuals (8-year cumulative incidence rate of 35.4% vs maximum of the other HLA-risk groups 18.2% [P < .001]). The effect of homozygosity DR3-DQ2/DR7-DQ2 on CD development was only present in girls (interaction P = .04). The prediction models showed good fit in the validation cohort (Cox regression 0.81 [0.54]). To calculate a personalized risk of CD development and provide screening advice, we designed the Prediction application https://hputter.shinyapps.io/preventcd/. CONCLUSION: Children with CD-FDR develop CD early in life, and their risk depends on gender, age and HLA-DQ, which are all factors that are important for sound screening advice. These children should be screened early in life, including HLA-DQ2/8-typing, and if genetically predisposed to CD, they should get further personalized screening advice using our Prediction application. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN74582487 (https://www.isrctn.com/search?q=ISRCTN74582487).