2022 Sudan Ebolavirus Outbreak in Uganda: Modelling Case Burden and Outbreak Duration.

In September 2022, an outbreak of Sudan virus (SUDV) was confirmed in Uganda. Following the first case report, we developed an individual based modelling platform (IBM-SUDV) to estimate the burden of cases and deaths, as well as the duration of the unfolding SUDV outbreak, using different scenarios. Modelled projections were within the range of cases and deaths ultimately observed.

HETEROGENEOUS EXPANSION OF POLYMORPHONUCLEAR MYELOID-DERIVED SUPPRESSOR CELLS DISTINGUISHES HIGH-RISK SEPSIS IMMUNOPHENOTYPES IN UGANDA.

ABSTRACT: Background: Understanding of immune cell phenotypes associated with inflammatory and immunosuppressive host responses in sepsis is imprecise, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, where the global sepsis burden is concentrated. In these settings, elucidation of clinically relevant immunophenotypes is necessary to determine the relevance of emerging therapeutics and refine mechanistic investigations of sepsis immunopathology. Methods: In a prospective cohort of adults hospitalized with suspected sepsis in Uganda (N = 43; median age 46 years [IQR 36-59], 24 [55.8%] living with HIV, 16 [37.2%] deceased at 60 days), we combined high-dimensional flow cytometry with unsupervised machine learning and manual gating to define peripheral immunophenotypes associated with increased risk of 60-day mortality. Results: Patients who died showed heterogeneous expansion of polymorphonuclear myeloid-derived suppressor cells, with increased and decreased abundance of CD16 - PD-L1 dim and CD16 bright PD-L1 bright subsets, respectively, significantly associated with mortality. While differences between CD16 - PD-L1 dim cell abundance and mortality risk appeared consistent throughout the course of illness, those for the CD16 bright PD-L1 bright subset were more pronounced early after illness onset. Independent of HIV co-infection, depletion of CD4 + T cells, dendritic cells, and CD56 - CD16 bright NK cells were significantly associated with mortality risk, as was expansion of immature, CD56 + CD16 - CD11c + NK cells. Abundance of T cells expressing inhibitory checkpoint proteins (PD-1, CTLA-4, LAG-3) was similar between patients who died versus those who survived. Conclusions: This is the first study to define high-risk immunophenotypes among adults with sepsis in sub-Saharan Africa, an immunologically distinct region where biologically informed treatment strategies are needed. More broadly, our findings highlight the clinical importance and complexity of myeloid derived suppressor cell expansion during sepsis and support emerging data that suggest a host-protective role for PD-L1 myeloid checkpoints in acute critical illness.

Widening geographic range of Rift Valley fever disease clusters associated with climate change in East Africa.

BACKGROUND: Recent epidemiology of Rift Valley fever (RVF) disease in Africa suggests growing frequency and expanding geographic range of small disease clusters in regions that previously had not reported the disease. We investigated factors associated with the phenomenon by characterising recent RVF disease events in East Africa. METHODS: Data on 100 disease events (2008-2022) from Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania were obtained from public databases and institutions, and modelled against possible geoecological risk factors of occurrence including altitude, soil type, rainfall/precipitation, temperature, normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI), livestock production system, land-use change and long-term climatic variations. Decadal climatic variations between 1980 and 2022 were evaluated for association with the changing disease pattern. RESULTS: Of 100 events, 91% were small RVF clusters with a median of one human (IQR, 1-3) and three livestock cases (IQR, 2-7). These clusters exhibited minimal human mortality (IQR, 0-1), and occurred primarily in highlands (67%), with 35% reported in areas that had never reported RVF disease. Multivariate regression analysis of geoecological variables showed a positive correlation between occurrence and increasing temperature and rainfall. A 1°C increase in temperature and a 1-unit increase in NDVI, one months prior were associated with increased RVF incidence rate ratios of 1.20 (95% CI 1.1, 1.2) and 1.93 (95% CI 1.01, 3.71), respectively. Long-term climatic trends showed a significant decadal increase in annual mean temperature (0.12-0.3°C/decade, p<0.05), associated with decreasing rainfall in arid and semi-arid lowlands but increasing rainfall trends in highlands (p<0.05). These hotter and wetter highlands showed increasing frequency of RVF clusters, accounting for 76% and 43% in Uganda and Kenya, respectively. CONCLUSION: These findings demonstrate the changing epidemiology of RVF disease. The widening geographic range of disease is associated with climatic variations, with the likely impact of wider dispersal of virus to new areas of endemicity and future epidemics.

Widening geographic range of Rift Valley fever disease clusters associated with climate change in East Africa.

Background: Recent epidemiology of Rift Valley fever (RVF) disease in Africa suggests growing frequency and expanding geographic range of small disease clusters in regions that previously had not reported the disease. We investigated factors associated with the phenomenon by characterizing recent RVF disease events in East Africa. Methods: Data on 100 disease events (2008 - 2022) from Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania were obtained from public databases and institutions, and modeled against possible geo-ecological risk factors of occurrence including altitude, soil type, rainfall/precipitation, temperature, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), livestock production system, land-use change, and long-term climatic variations. Decadal climatic variations between 1980-2022 were evaluated for association with the changing disease pattern. Results: Of 100 events, 91% were small RVF clusters with a median of one human (IQR, 1-3) and 3 livestock cases (IQR, 2-7). These clusters exhibited minimal human mortality (IQR 0-1), and occurred primarily in highlands (67%), with 35% reported in areas that had never reported RVF disease. Multivariate regression analysis of geo-ecological variables showed a positive correlation between occurrence and increasing temperature and rainfall. A 1oC increase in temperature and 1-unit increase in NDVI, 1-3 months prior were associated with increased RVF incidence rate ratios (IRR) of 1.20 (95% CI 1.1,1.2) and 9.88 (95% CI 0.85, 119.52), respectively. Long-term climatic trends showed significant decadal increase in annual mean temperature (0.12 to 0.3oC/decade, P<0.05), associated with decreasing rainfall in arid and semi-arid lowlands but increasing rainfall trends in highlands (P<0.05). These hotter and wetter highlands showed increasing frequency of RVF clusters, accounting for 76% and 43% in Uganda and Kenya, respectively. Conclusion: These findings demonstrate the changing epidemiology of RVF disease. The widening geographic range of disease is associated with climatic variations, with the likely impact of wider dispersal of virus to new areas of endemicity and future epidemics. Key questions: What is already known on this topic?: Rift Valley fever is recognized for its association with heavy rainfall, flooding, and El Niño rains in the East African region. A growing body of recent studies has highlighted a shifting landscape of the disease, marked by an expanding geographic range and an increasing number of small RVF clusters.What this study adds: This study challenges previous beliefs about RVF, revealing that it predominantly occurs in small clusters rather than large outbreaks, and its association with El Niño is not as pronounced as previously thought. Over 65% of these clusters are concentrated in the highlands of Kenya and Uganda, with 35% occurring in previously unaffected regions, accompanied by an increase in temperature and total rainfall between 1980 and 2022, along with a rise in the annual number of rainy days. Notably, the observed rainfall increases are particularly significant during the short-rains season (October-December), aligning with a secondary peak in RVF incidence. In contrast, the lowlands of East Africa, where typical RVF epidemics occur, display smaller and more varied trends in annual rainfall.How this study might affect research, practice, or policy: The worldwide consequence of the expanding RVF cluster is the broader dispersion of the virus, leading to the establishment of new regions with virus endemicity. This escalation heightens the risk of more extensive extreme-weather-associated RVF epidemics in the future. Global public health institutions must persist in developing preparedness and response strategies for such scenarios. This involves the creation and approval of human RVF vaccines and therapeutics, coupled with a rapid distribution plan through regional banks.

Viruses associated with measles-like illnesses in Uganda.

OBJECTIVES: In this study, we investigated the causes of measles-like illnesses (MLI) in the Uganda national surveillance program in order to inform diagnostic assay selection and vaccination strategies. METHODS: We used metagenomic next-generation sequencing (M-NGS) on the Illumina platform to identify viruses associated with MLI (defined as fever and rash in the presence of either cough, coryza or conjunctivitis) in patient samples that had tested IgM negative for measles between 2010 and 2019. RESULTS: Viral genomes were identified in 87/271 (32%) of samples, of which 44/271 (16%) contained 12 known viral pathogens. Expected viruses included rubella, human parvovirus B19, Epstein Barr virus, human herpesvirus 6B, human cytomegalovirus, varicella zoster virus and measles virus (detected within the seronegative window-period of infection) and the blood-borne hepatitis B virus. We also detected Saffold virus, human parvovirus type 4, the human adenovirus C2 and vaccine-associated poliovirus type 1. CONCLUSIONS: The study highlights the presence of undiagnosed viruses causing MLI in Uganda, including vaccine-preventable illnesses. NGS can be used to monitor common viral infections at a population level, especially in regions where such infections are prevalent, including low and middle income countries to guide vaccination policy and optimize diagnostic assays.

COVID-19 immune signatures in Uganda persist in HIV co-infection and diverge by pandemic phase.

Little is known about the pathobiology of SARS-CoV-2 infection in sub-Saharan Africa, where severe COVID-19 fatality rates are among the highest in the world and the immunological landscape is unique. In a prospective cohort study of 306 adults encompassing the entire clinical spectrum of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Uganda, we profile the peripheral blood proteome and transcriptome to characterize the immunopathology of COVID-19 across multiple phases of the pandemic. Beyond the prognostic importance of myeloid cell-driven immune activation and lymphopenia, we show that multifaceted impairment of host protein synthesis and redox imbalance define core biological signatures of severe COVID-19, with central roles for IL-7, IL-15, and lymphotoxin-α in COVID-19 respiratory failure. While prognostic signatures are generally consistent in SARS-CoV-2/HIV-coinfection, type I interferon responses uniquely scale with COVID-19 severity in persons living with HIV. Throughout the pandemic, COVID-19 severity peaked during phases dominated by A.23/A.23.1 and Delta B.1.617.2/AY variants. Independent of clinical severity, Delta phase COVID-19 is distinguished by exaggerated pro-inflammatory myeloid cell and inflammasome activation, NK and CD8+ T cell depletion, and impaired host protein synthesis. Combining these analyses with a contemporary Ugandan cohort of adults hospitalized with influenza and other severe acute respiratory infections, we show that activation of epidermal and platelet-derived growth factor pathways are distinct features of COVID-19, deepening translational understanding of mechanisms potentially underlying SARS-CoV-2-associated pulmonary fibrosis. Collectively, our findings provide biological rationale for use of broad and targeted immunotherapies for severe COVID-19 in sub-Saharan Africa, illustrate the relevance of local viral and host factors to SARS-CoV-2 immunopathology, and highlight underemphasized yet therapeutically exploitable immune pathways driving COVID-19 severity.

A Transcriptomic Classifier Model Identifies High-Risk Endotypes in a Prospective Study of Sepsis in Uganda.

OBJECTIVES: In high-income countries (HICs), sepsis endotypes defined by distinct pathobiological mechanisms, mortality risks, and responses to corticosteroid treatment have been identified using blood transcriptomics. The generalizability of these endotypes to low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), where the global sepsis burden is concentrated, is unknown. We sought to determine the prevalence, prognostic relevance, and immunopathological features of HIC-derived transcriptomic sepsis endotypes in sub-Saharan Africa. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Public referral hospital in Uganda. PATIENTS: Adults ( n = 128) hospitalized with suspected sepsis. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Using whole-blood RNA sequencing data, we applied 19-gene and 7-gene classifiers derived and validated in HICs (SepstratifieR) to assign patients to one of three sepsis response signatures (SRS). The 19-gene classifier assigned 30 (23.4%), 92 (71.9%), and 6 (4.7%) patients to SRS-1, SRS-2, and SRS-3, respectively, the latter of which is designed to capture individuals transcriptionally closest to health. SRS-1 was defined biologically by proinflammatory innate immune activation and suppressed natural killer-cell, T-cell, and B-cell immunity, whereas SRS-2 was characterized by dampened innate immune activation, preserved lymphocyte immunity, and suppressed transcriptional responses to corticosteroids. Patients assigned to SRS-1 were predominantly (80.0% [24/30]) persons living with HIV with advanced immunosuppression and frequent tuberculosis. Mortality at 30-days differed significantly by endotype and was highest (48.1%) in SRS-1. Agreement between 19-gene and 7-gene SRS assignments was poor (Cohen's kappa 0.11). Patient stratification was suboptimal using the 7-gene classifier with 15.1% (8/53) of individuals assigned to SRS-3 deceased at 30-days. CONCLUSIONS: Sepsis endotypes derived in HICs share biological and clinical features with those identified in sub-Saharan Africa, with major differences in host-pathogen profiles. Our findings highlight the importance of context-specific sepsis endotyping, the generalizability of conserved biological signatures of critical illness across disparate settings, and opportunities to develop more pathobiologically informed sepsis treatment strategies in LMICs.

Integration of SARS-CoV-2 testing and genomic sequencing into influenza sentinel surveillance in Uganda, January to December 2022.

IMPORTANCE: Respiratory pathogens cause high rates of morbidity and mortality globally and have high pandemic potential. During the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, influenza surveillance was significantly interrupted because of resources being diverted to SARS-CoV-2 testing and sequencing. Based on recommendations from the World Health Organization, the Uganda Virus Research Institute, National Influenza Center laboratory integrated SARS-CoV-2 testing and genomic sequencing into the influenza surveillance program. We describe the results of influenza and SARS-CoV-2 testing of samples collected from 16 sentinel surveillance sites located throughout Uganda as well as SARS-CoV-2 testing and sequencing in other health centers. The surveillance system showed that both SARS-CoV-2 and influenza can be monitored in communities at the national level. The integration of SARS-CoV-2 detection and genomic surveillance into the influenza surveillance program will help facilitate the timely release of SARS-CoV-2 information for COVID-19 pandemic mitigation and provide important information regarding the persistent threat of influenza.

Rubella virus genotype 2B endemicity and related utility of serum-based molecular characterization in Uganda.

There are 13 globally recognized rubella virus genotypes of which only 2 (1E and 2B) have been detected recently. The largest percentage of all reported rubella virus sequences come from China and Japan with Africa reporting limited data. In a bid to address the lack of rubella genotype data in Uganda and the World Health Organization Africa region, we sought to characterize rubella viruses retrospectively using sera collected from suspected measles patients that turned out rubella IgM positive.Seven sequences belonging to genotype 2B sub-lineage 2B-L2c were obtained. These sequences clustered with other genotype 2B sequences previously reported from Uganda. None of the other genotypes (1E and 1G) reported from Uganda in the earlier years were detected. In addition, none of the sequences were obtained after the introduction of the measles-rubella containing vaccine. The above highlight the need for continuous rubella virological surveillance to confirm interruption of endemic rubella genotype circulation.

Sabin polio virus protein 1 (VP1) evolution in patients with acute flaccid paralysis from 2010 to 2016 in Uganda.

Acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) is a rare side effect of the oral polio vaccine but can be associated with outbreaks and permanent disability in patients harboring circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses (cVDPVs). With the advancement of polio abolition in a glimpse, cVDPVs are causing outbreaks and slowing the polio eradication process. The polio virus protein 1 (VP1) contains the binding site that is key for virus transmission. Understanding the evolution of VP1 among AFP patients could yield more insight into the early events of cVDPVs. Polioviruses were identified from stool specimens of AFP patients using cell culture; and confirmed by the real time RT PCR intra-typic differentiation and vaccine-derived poliovirus assays. Seventy-nine (79) Sabin-like poliovirus 1 (SL1) and 86 Sabin-like poliovirus 3 (SL3) were sequenced. The VP1 amino acid substitutions T106A in Sabin poliovirus 1 and A54V in Sabin poliovirus 3 were common among the AFP patients as has been found in previous studies. Other substitutions that were associated with AFP were: T290A and A54T in SL1 and SL3 respectively. Nucleotide mutations that were common among the AFP patients included T402C, C670A, and T816C in SL1, and G22A, C375Y, A472R, and A694T in SL3 polioviruses. Characterizing mutations that are associated with AFP could contribute to efforts pursued to mitigate the risk of vaccine-derived polioviruses and promote development of safer vaccines.

Environmental surveillance detects circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 that was undetected by acute flaccid paralysis surveillance in 2021 in Uganda.

The success of the global polio eradication initiative is threatened by the genetic instability of the oral polio vaccine, which can result in the emergence of pathogenic vaccine-derived polioviruses following prolonged replication in the guts of individuals with primary immune deficiencies or in communities with low vaccination coverage. Through environmental surveillance, circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 was detected in Uganda in the absence of detection by acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) surveillance. This underscores the sensitivity of environmental surveillance and emphasizes its usefulness in supplementing AFP surveillance for poliovirus infections in the race towards global polio eradication.

Development of a Novel Clinicomolecular Risk Index to Enhance Mortality Prediction and Immunological Stratification of Adults Hospitalized with Sepsis in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Pilot Study from Uganda.

The global burden of sepsis is concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where epidemic HIV and unique pathogen diversity challenge the effective management of severe infections. In this context, patient stratification based on biomarkers of a dysregulated host response may identify subgroups more likely to respond to targeted immunomodulatory therapeutics. In a prospective cohort of adults hospitalized with suspected sepsis in Uganda, we applied machine learning methods to develop a prediction model for 30-day mortality that integrates physiology-based risk scores with soluble biomarkers reflective of key domains of sepsis immunopathology. After model evaluation and internal validation, whole-blood RNA sequencing data were analyzed to compare biological pathway enrichment and inferred immune cell profiles between patients assigned differential model-based risks of mortality. Of 260 eligible adults (median age, 32 years; interquartile range, 26-43 years; 59.2% female, 53.9% living with HIV), 62 (23.8%) died by 30 days after hospital discharge. Among 14 biomarkers, soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor 1 (sTNFR1) and angiopoietin 2 (Ang-2) demonstrated the greatest importance for mortality prediction in machine learning models. A clinicomolecular model integrating sTNFR1 and Ang-2 with the Universal Vital Assessment (UVA) risk score optimized 30-day mortality prediction across multiple performance metrics. Patients assigned to the high-risk, UVA-based clinicomolecular subgroup exhibited a transcriptional profile defined by proinflammatory innate immune and necroptotic pathway activation, T-cell exhaustion, and expansion of key immune cell subsets including regulatory and gamma-delta T cells. Clinicomolecular stratification of adults with suspected sepsis in Uganda enhanced 30-day mortality prediction and identified a high-risk subgroup with a therapeutically targetable immunological profile. Further studies are needed to advance pathobiologically informed sepsis management in SSA.

Brief Report: Detection of Urine Lipoarabinomannan Is Associated With Proinflammatory Innate Immune Activation, Impaired Host Defense, and Organ Dysfunction in Adults With Severe HIV-Associated Tuberculosis in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: The immunopathology of disseminated HIV-associated tuberculosis (HIV/TB), a leading cause of critical illness and death among persons living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa, is incompletely understood. Reflective of hematogenously disseminated TB, detection of lipoarabinomannan (LAM) in urine is associated with greater bacillary burden and poor outcomes in adults with HIV/TB. METHODS: We determined the relationship between detection of urine TB-LAM, organ dysfunction, and host immune responses in a prospective cohort of adults hospitalized with severe HIV/TB in Uganda. Generalized additive models were used to analyze the association between urine TB-LAM grade and concentrations of 14 soluble immune mediators. Whole-blood RNA-sequencing data were used to compare transcriptional profiles between patients with high- vs. low-grade TB-LAM results. RESULTS: Among 157 hospitalized persons living with HIV, 40 (25.5%) had positive urine TB-LAM testing. Higher TB-LAM grade was associated with more severe physiologic derangement, organ dysfunction, and shock. Adjusted generalized additive models showed that higher TB-LAM grade was significantly associated with higher concentrations of mediators reflecting proinflammatory innate and T-cell activation and chemotaxis (IL-8, MIF, MIP-1ß/CCL4, and sIL-2Ra/sCD25). Transcriptionally, patients with higher TB-LAM grades demonstrated multifaceted impairment of antibacterial defense including reduced expression of genes encoding cytotoxic and autophagy-related proteins and impaired cross-talk between innate and cell-mediated immune effectors. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings add to emerging data suggesting pathobiological relationships between LAM, TB dissemination, innate cell activation, and evasion of host immunity in severe HIV/TB. Further translational studies are needed to elucidate the role for immunomodulatory therapies, in addition to optimized anti-TB treatment, in this often critically ill population.

HIV infection drives pro-inflammatory immunothrombotic pathway activation and organ dysfunction among adults with sepsis in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: The global burden of sepsis is concentrated in high HIV-burden settings in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Despite this, little is known about the immunopathology of sepsis in persons with HIV (PWH) in the region. We sought to determine the influence of HIV on host immune responses and organ dysfunction among adults hospitalized with suspected sepsis in Uganda. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. METHODS: We compared organ dysfunction and 30-day outcome profiles of PWH and those without HIV. We quantified 14 soluble immune mediators, reflective of key domains of sepsis immunopathology, and performed whole-blood RNA-sequencing on samples from a subset of patients. We used propensity score methods to match PWH and those without HIV by demographics, illness duration, and clinical severity, and compared immune mediator concentrations and gene expression profiles across propensity score-matched groups. RESULTS: Among 299 patients, 157 (52.5%) were PWH (clinical stage 3 or 4 in 80.3%, 67.7% with known HIV on antiretroviral therapy). PWH presented with more severe physiologic derangement and shock, and had higher 30-day mortality (34.5% vs. 10.2%; P  < 0.001). Across propensity score-matched groups, PWH exhibited greater pro-inflammatory immune activation, including upregulation of interleukin (IL)-6, IL-8, IL-15, IL-17 and HMGB1 signaling, with concomitant T-cell exhaustion, prothrombotic pathway activation, and angiopoeitin-2-related endothelial dysfunction. CONCLUSIONS: Sepsis-related organ dysfunction and mortality in Uganda disproportionately affect PWH, who demonstrate exaggerated activation of multiple immunothrombotic and metabolic pathways implicated in sepsis pathogenesis. Further investigations are needed to refine understanding of sepsis immunopathology in PWH, particularly mechanisms amenable to therapeutic manipulation.

The road to a polio-free Uganda; contribution of the Expanded Program on Immunization Laboratory (EPI-LAB) at Uganda Virus Research Institute.

Background: The control of poliomyelitis in Uganda dates back as far as 1950 and acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) surveillance has since been used as a criterion for identifying wild polioviruses. Poliovirus isolation was initially pursued through collaborative research however, in 1993, the Expanded Program on Immunization Laboratory (EPI-LAB) was established as a member of the Global Poliovirus Laboratory Network (GPLN) and spearheaded this activity at Uganda Virus Research Institute. Objectives: The aim of this report is to document the progress and impact of the EPI-LAB on poliovirus eradication in Uganda. Methods: Poliovirus detection and identification were achieved fundamentally through tissue culture and intra-typic differentiation of the poliovirus based on the real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (rRT PCR). The data obtained was entered into the national AFP database and analysed using EpiInfoTM statistical software. Results: Quantitative and qualitative detection of wild and Sabin polioviruses corresponded with the polio campaigns. The WHO target indicators for AFP surveillance were achieved essentially throughout the study period. Conclusion: Virological tracking coupled with attaining standard AFP surveillance indicators has been pivotal in achieving and maintaining the national wild polio-free status. Laboratory surveillance remains key in informing the certification process of polio eradication.

Multidimensional analysis of the host response reveals prognostic and pathogen-driven immune subtypes among adults with sepsis in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: The global burden of sepsis is concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa, where severe infections disproportionately affect young, HIV-infected adults and high-burden pathogens are unique. In this context, poor understanding of sepsis immunopathology represents a crucial barrier to development of locally-effective treatment strategies. We sought to determine inter-individual immunologic heterogeneity among adults hospitalized with sepsis in a sub-Saharan African setting, and characterize associations between immune subtypes, infecting pathogens, and clinical outcomes. METHODS: Among a prospective observational cohort of 288 adults hospitalized with suspected sepsis in Uganda, we applied machine learning methods to 14 soluble host immune mediators, reflective of key domains of sepsis immunopathology (innate and adaptive immune activation, endothelial dysfunction, fibrinolysis), to identify immune subtypes in randomly-split discovery (N = 201) and internal validation (N = 87) sub-cohorts. In parallel, we applied similar methods to whole-blood RNA-sequencing data from a consecutive subset of patients (N = 128) to identify transcriptional subtypes, which we characterized using biological pathway and immune cell-type deconvolution analyses. RESULTS: Unsupervised clustering consistently identified two immune subtypes defined by differential activation of pro-inflammatory innate and adaptive immune pathways, with transcriptional evidence of concomitant CD56(-)/CD16( +) NK-cell expansion, T-cell exhaustion, and oxidative-stress and hypoxia-induced metabolic and cell-cycle reprogramming in the hyperinflammatory subtype. Immune subtypes defined by greater pro-inflammatory immune activation, T-cell exhaustion, and metabolic reprogramming were consistently associated with a high-prevalence of severe and often disseminated HIV-associated tuberculosis, as well as more extensive organ dysfunction, worse functional outcomes, and higher 30-day mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Our results highlight unique host- and pathogen-driven features of sepsis immunopathology in sub-Saharan Africa, including the importance of severe HIV-associated tuberculosis, and reinforce the need to develop more biologically-informed treatment strategies in the region, particularly those incorporating immunomodulation.

Severe COVID-19 in Uganda across Two Epidemic Phases: A Prospective Cohort Study.

Among a prospective cohort of children and adults admitted to a national COVID-19 treatment unit in Uganda from March to December 2020, we characterized the epidemiology of and risk factors for severe illness. Across two epidemic phases differentiated by varying levels of community transmission, the proportion of patients admitted with WHO-defined severe COVID-19 ranged from 5% (7/146; 95% CI: 2-10) to 33% (41/124; 95% CI: 25-42); 21% (26/124; 95% CI: 14-29%) of patients admitted during the peak phase received oxygen therapy. Severe COVID-19 was associated with older age, male sex, and longer duration of illness before admission. Coinfection with HIV was not associated with illness severity; malaria or tuberculosis coinfection was rare. No patients died during admission. Despite low mortality, hospital incidence of severe COVID-19 during the first epidemic peak in Uganda was substantial. Improvements in vaccine deployment and acute care capacity, including oxygen delivery, are urgently needed to prevent and manage severe COVID-19 in sub-Saharan Africa.