Development of a Risk Prediction Model for Assessing Dental Readiness in the Canadian Armed Forces.

INTRODUCTION: The establishment and sustainment of a high state of dental readiness in the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) are the primary missions of the Royal Canadian Dental Corps. The objective of this study was to develop a risk prediction tool to estimate dental readiness in active CAF personnel. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The prediction model was developed to predict the classification of non-deployable (yes/no) within 12 months (primary) and 18 months (secondary) using both dental history data (including dental attendance, restorations, root canals, and third molar status) and demographic information. Two cohorts were used for development: a recruit cohort who enrolled between April 2016 and March 2017 and a longer-serving member (LSM) cohort who had their recall dental exam between May 2014 and October 2014. Each group was followed until April 26, 2018. Elastic net logistic regression models were used to create the models. Model performance was evaluated using area under the curve, F1, and the Brier score. RESULTS: The recruit cohort included 2,828 individuals and the LSM cohort included 2,398 individuals. Overall, the classification of non-deployable occurred in 5.1% of the study population within 12 months and 9.6% of the population within 18 months. The models predicted the outcome with an area under the receiver operating curve of 0.77 in recruits and 0.70 in LSMs. CONCLUSION: The prediction model shows potential but its performance and usability could be further improved through the consistent collection of high quality, discretely entered, epidemiological data following standardized diagnostic terminology and coding. A recalibrated and automated version of this model could assist in decision making, resource allocation, and the enhancement of military dental readiness.

Community water fluoridation exposure and dental caries experience in newly enrolled members of the Canadian Armed Forces 2006-2017.

OBJECTIVES: This cross-sectional study examines the dental caries experience of new Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) members in relation to enrollment from municipalities with and without water fluoridation. METHODS: The study population consisted of recruits who enrolled in the CAF between 2006 and 2017 with an enrollment address in municipalities with known fluoridation status (n = 24,552). Odontogram statistics from dental examinations were used to calculate the number of decayed, missing, and filled teeth (DMFT) and tooth surfaces (DMFS) for each recruit. The average difference between recruits from municipalities with and without fluoridation was determined using a linear regression model which adjusted for confounding by age and gender and allowed effect modification based on socio-economic status. RESULTS: The average recruit was male, 24 years of age, with 5.6 DMFT and 11.6 DMFS. After adjusting for age and gender, recruits residing in municipalities with water fluoridation had lower DMFT by 0.67 (CI - 0.55, - 0.79) points and lower DMFS by 1.77 (- 1.46, - 2.09) points. When allowing for effect modification by median income quintile of the recruits' home census tract, the average reduction in DMFT and DMFS was similar in all income quintiles, with average reductions in DMFT ranging from 0.47 to 1.02 and average reductions in DMFS ranging from 1.33 to 2.70. CONCLUSION: Residence in a municipality with water fluoridation was associated with reduced caries experience in a national sample of newly enrolled CAF members. The benefits of water fluoridation were uniform across neighbourhood income and military rank classes.

RéSUMé: OBJECTIFS: Cette étude transversale examine l'importance du niveau de la carie dentaire des nouveaux membres des Forces armées canadiennes (FAC) par rapport à l'enrôlement provenant des municipalités avec et sans fluoration de l'eau. MéTHODES: La population étudiée était constituée de recrues qui se sont enrôlés dans les FAC entre 2006 et 2017 avec une adresse d'inscription dans les municipalités dont le statut de fluoration est connu (n = 24 552). Les statistiques en provenance des odontogrammes des examens dentaires ont été utilisées pour calculer le nombre de dents et surfaces cariés, absents et obturés (CAOD & CAOF) pour chaque recrue. La différence moyenne entre les recrues des municipalités avec ou sans fluoration a été déterminée à l'aide d'un modèle de régression linéaire qui a été ajusté pour prendre en considération l'âge et le sexe et a permis une modification de l'effet en fonction du statut socioéconomique. RéSULTATS: La recrue moyenne était un homme de 24 ans avec 5,6 CAOD et 11,6 CAOF. Après ajustement en fonction de l'âge et du sexe, les recrues résidant dans les municipalités avec fluoration de l'eau avaient un CAOD inférieur de 0,67 points (IC -0,55, -0,79) et un CAOF inférieur de 1,77 points (-1,46, -2,09). En permettant la modification de l'effet par l'indice de revenu médian du secteur de recensement d'origine des recrues, la réduction moyenne du CAOD et du CAOF était similaire dans tous les niveaux de revenu, avec des réductions moyennes du CAOD d'entre 0,47 et 1,02 et des réductions moyennes du CAOF d'entre 1,33 et 2,70. CONCLUSION: La résidence dans une municipalité avec fluoration de l'eau a été associée avec une réduction des caries dans un échantillonnage national de nouveaux membres enrôlés dans les FAC. Les avantages de la fluoration de l'eau étaient uniformes dans l'ensemble des niveaux de revenu du quartier et des différentes classes de grade militaire.

Costs of prenatal detection of congenital heart disease.

Little information is available about the transportation costs incurred from the missed prenatal diagnosis of congenital heart disease (CHD). The objectives of the present study were to analyze the costs of emergency transportation related to the postnatal diagnosis of major CHD and to perform a cost/benefit analysis of additional training for ultrasound technicians to study the implications of improved prenatal detection rates. The 1-year costs incurred for emergency transportation of pre- and postnatally diagnosed infants with CHD in Northern California and North Western Nevada were calculated and compared. The prenatal detection rate in our cohort (n = 147) was 30.6%. Infants postnatally diagnosed were 16.5 times more likely (p <0.001) to require emergency transport. The associated emergency transportation costs were US$542,143 in total for all patients with CHD. The mean cost per patient was $389.00 versus $5,143.51 for prenatally and postnatally diagnosed infants, respectively (p <0.001). Assuming an improvement in detection rates after 1-day training for ultrasound technicians, the investment in training cost can be recouped in 1 year if the detection rate increased by 2.4% to 33%. Savings of $6,543,476 would occur within 5 years if the detection rate increased to 50%. In conclusion, CHD diagnosed postnatally results in greater costs related to emergency transportation of ill infants. Improving the prenatal detection rates through improved ultrasound technician training could result in considerable cost savings.