Global governance for pandemic prevention and the wildlife trade.

Although ideas about preventive actions for pandemics have been advanced during the COVID-19 crisis, there has been little consideration for how they can be operationalised through governance structures within the context of the wildlife trade for human consumption. To date, pandemic governance has mostly focused on outbreak surveillance, containment, and response rather than on avoiding zoonotic spillovers in the first place. However, given the acceleration of globalisation, a paradigm shift towards prevention of zoonotic spillovers is warranted as containment of outbreaks becomes unfeasible. Here, we consider the current institutional landscape for pandemic prevention in light of ongoing negotiations of a so-called pandemic treaty and how prevention of zoonotic spillovers from the wildlife trade for human consumption could be incorporated. We argue that such an institutional arrangement should be explicit about zoonotic spillover prevention and focus on improving coordination across four policy domains, namely public health, biodiversity conservation, food security, and trade. We posit that this pandemic treaty should include four interacting goals in relation to prevention of zoonotic spillovers from the wildlife trade for human consumption: risk understanding, risk assessment, risk reduction, and enabling funding. Despite the need to keep political attention on addressing the current pandemic, society cannot afford to miss the opportunity of the current crisis to encourage institution building for preventing future pandemics.

Tracking Chinese newspaper coverage of elephant ivory through topic modeling.

Mass media worldwide has contributed to increasing awareness of the illegal wildlife trade and its significant impact on wildlife conservation. We used mass media coverage as a proxy for macro-level public opinion to analyze the media framing of elephant ivory in 6394 Chinese newspaper articles published from 2000 to 2021 and thus determine the effects of wildlife policies on public opinion. We focused on 2 events: the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) approval of China as a trading partner in the purchase and import of ivory stockpiles from Africa in July 2008 and the Chinese government's announcement of a domestic ivory ban in December 2016. Using latent Dirichlet allocation topic modeling, we identified 8 topics about elephant ivory and grouped them into 3 frames: ivory arts and culture, ivory crimes, and elephant conservation. Over the last 2 decades, topics related to ivory crimes remained the most prevalent in news articles. Topics about ivory arts and culture showed a significant shift in media salience before and after the 2 events (from 0.44 to 0.19 and from 0.08 to 0.15, respectively, p < 0.05), whereas the other 2 frames did not change significantly. Contrary to popular belief, our results indicated that Chinese macro-level public opinion on ivory had become more negative following the CITES approval of ivory importation and less negative after the ivory ban announcement, at least for certain periods. The relationship between mass media, public opinion, and wildlife trade policies is complex and requires further examination of the sociopolitical dynamics that influence media narratives. Our results showed the value of topic modeling in monitoring and assessing media representations of wildlife issues in the era of big data. Conservationists should remain vigilant of mass media coverage and collaborate with media practitioners to produce comprehensive narratives on wildlife issues if resources permit.

Los medios masivos han contribuido a una mayor conciencia mundial del mercado ilegal de fauna y el impacto significativo que tiene sobre la conservación. Usamos la cobertura de los medios masivos como sustituto de la opinión pública a nivel macro para analizar el encuadre mediático que le dan al marfil 6,394 artículos publicados en periódicos chinos entre el 2000 y 2021 para así determinar los efectos que tienen las políticas de fauna sobre la opinión pública. Nos enfocamos en dos eventos: la autorización que dio la Convención sobre el Comercio Internacional de Especies Amenazadas (CITES) a China como socio comercial en la compra e importación de reservas de marfil desde África en julio de 2008 y la prohibición doméstica de marfil anunciada por el gobierno chino en diciembre de 2016. Usamos el modelado de asignación latente de Dirichlet para identificar ocho temas sobre el marfil y los agrupamos en tres encuadres: arte y cultura del marfil, crimen del marfil y conservación de elefantes. Durante las últimas dos décadas, los temas relacionados con los crímenes del marfil fueron los más prevalentes en los artículos periodísticos. Los temas relacionados al arte y cultura del marfil mostraron un cambio significativo en la relevancia mediática antes y después de los dos eventos (de 0.44 a 0.19 y de 0.08 a 0.15, respectivamente, p<0.05), mientras que los otros dos encuadres no cambiaron significativamente. Contrario a las creencias populares, nuestros resultados indicaron que la opinión pública a nivel macro sobre el marfil en China se ha vuelto más negativa después de la autorización de CITES y menos negativa después de la prohibición del marfil, al menos durante ciertos periodos. La relación entre los medios masivos, la opinión pública y las políticas del comercio de fauna es compleja y requiere un análisis más profundo de las dinámicas sociopolíticas que influyen sobre las narrativas mediáticas. Nuestros resultados muestran el valor del modelado de temas en el monitoreo y evaluación de la representación en medios de los temas sobre fauna en tiempos de los macrodatos. Los conservacionistas deberían permanecer atentos a la cobertura de los medios masivos y colaborar con los profesionales de los medios para producir narraciones completas sobre la fauna si los recursos lo permiten.

The unequal burden of human-wildlife conflict.

Human-wildlife conflict is one of the most pressing sustainable development challenges globally. This is particularly the case where ecologically and economically important wildlife impact the livelihoods of humans. Large carnivores are one such group and their co-occurrence with low-income rural communities often results in real or perceived livestock losses that place increased costs on already impoverished households. Here we show the disparities associated with the vulnerability to conflict arising from large carnivores on cattle (Bos taurus) globally. Across the distribution of 18 large carnivores, we find that the economic vulnerability to predation losses (as measured by impacts to annual per capita income) is between two and eight times higher for households in transitioning and developing economies when compared to developed ones. This potential burden is exacerbated further in developing economies because cattle keepers in these areas produce on average 31% less cattle meat per animal than in developed economies. In the lowest-income areas, our estimates suggest that the loss of a single cow or bull equates to nearly a year and a half of lost calories consumed by a child. Finally, our results show that 82% of carnivore range falls outside protected areas, and five threatened carnivores have over one third of their range located in the most economically sensitive conflict areas. This unequal burden of human-carnivore conflict sheds light on the importance of grappling with multiple and conflicting sustainable development goals: protecting life on land and eliminating poverty and hunger.

Leopard and spotted hyena densities in the Lake Mburo National Park, southwestern Uganda.

Robust measures of animal densities are necessary for effective wildlife management. Leopards (Panthera pardus) and spotted hyenas (Crocuta Crocuta) are higher order predators that are data deficient across much of their East African range and in Uganda, excepting for one peer-reviewed study on hyenas, there are presently no credible population estimates for these species. A lack of information on the population status and even baseline densities of these species has ramifications as leopards are drawcards for the photo-tourism industry, and along with hyenas are often responsible for livestock depredations from pastoralist communities. Leopards are also sometimes hunted for sport. Establishing baseline density estimates for these species is urgently needed not only for population monitoring purposes, but in the design of sustainable management offtakes, and in assessing certain conservation interventions like financial compensation for livestock depredation. Accordingly, we ran a single-season survey of these carnivores in the Lake Mburo National Park of south-western Uganda using 60 remote camera traps distributed in a paired format at 30 locations. We analysed hyena and leopard detections under a Bayesian spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) modelling framework to estimate their densities. This small national park (370 km2) is surrounded by Bahima pastoralist communities with high densities of cattle on the park edge (with regular park incursions). Leopard densities were estimated at 6.31 individuals/100 km2 (posterior SD = 1.47, 95% CI [3.75-9.20]), and spotted hyena densities were 10.99 individuals/100 km2, but with wide confidence intervals (posterior SD = 3.35, 95% CI [5.63-17.37]). Leopard and spotted hyena abundance within the boundaries of the national park were 24.87 (posterior SD 7.78) and 39.07 individuals (posterior = SD 13.51) respectively. Leopard densities were on the middle end of SECR studies published in the peer-reviewed literature over the last 5 years while spotted hyena densities were some of the first reported in the literature using SECR, and similar to a study in Botswana which reported 11.80 spotted hyenas/100 km2. Densities were not noticeably lower at the park edge, and in the southwest of our study site, despite repeated cattle incursions into these areas. We postulate that the relatively high densities of both species in the region could be owed to impala Aepyceros melampus densities ranging from 16.6-25.6 impala/km2. Another, potential explanatory variable (albeit a speculative one) is the absence of interspecific competition from African lions (Panthera leo), which became functionally extinct (there is only one male lion present) in the park nearly two decades ago. This study provides the first robust population estimate of these species anywhere in Uganda and suggests leopards and spotted hyenas continue to persist in the highly modified landscape of Lake Mburo National Park.

Overcoming racism in the twin spheres of conservation science and practice.

It is time to acknowledge and overcome conservation's deep-seated systemic racism, which has historically marginalized Black, Indigenous and people of colour (BIPOC) communities and continues to do so. We describe how the mutually reinforcing 'twin spheres' of conservation science and conservation practice perpetuate this systemic racism. We trace how institutional structures in conservation science (e.g. degree programmes, support and advancement opportunities, course syllabuses) can systematically produce conservation graduates with partial and problematic conceptions of conservation's history and contemporary purposes. Many of these graduates go on to work in conservation practice, reproducing conservation's colonial history by contributing to programmes based on outmoded conservation models that disproportionately harm rural BIPOC communities and further restrict access and inclusion for BIPOC conservationists. We provide practical, actionable proposals for breaking vicious cycles of racism in the system of conservation we have with virtuous cycles of inclusion, equality, equity and participation in the system of conservation we want.

Wildlife impacts and changing climate pose compounding threats to human food security.

High-level policy debates surrounding elephant management often dominate global conservation headlines, yet realities for people living with wildlife are not adequately incorporated into policymaking or evident in related discourse.1,2 Human health and livelihoods can be severely impacted by wildlife and indirectly by policy outcomes.3 In landscapes where growing human and elephant (Loxodonta spp. and Elephas maximus) populations compete over limited resources, human-elephant conflict causes crop loss, human injury and death, and retaliatory killing of wildlife.4-6 Across Africa, these problems may be increasingly compounded by climate change, which intensifies resource competition and food insecurity.6-9 Here, we examine how human-wildlife impacts interact with climate change and household food insecurity across the Kavango-Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area, the world's largest terrestrial transboundary conservation area, spanning five African nations. We use hierarchical Bayesian statistical models to analyze multi-country household data together with longitudinal satellite-based climate measures relevant to rainfed agriculture. We find that crop depredation by wildlife, primarily elephants, impacts 58% of sampled households annually and is associated with significant increases in food insecurity. These wildlife impacts compound effects of changing climate on food insecurity, most notably observed as a 5-day shortening of the rainy season per 10 years across the data record (1981-2018). To advance sustainability goals, global conservation policy must better integrate empirical evidence on the challenges of human-wildlife coexistence into longer term strategies at transboundary scales, specifically in the context of climate change.3,9-11.

Consequences Matter: Compassion in Conservation Means Caring for Individuals, Populations and Species.

Human activity affecting the welfare of wild vertebrates, widely accepted to be sentient, and therefore deserving of moral concern, is widespread. A variety of motives lead to the killing of individual wild animals. These include to provide food, to protect stock and other human interests, and also for sport. The acceptability of such killing is widely believed to vary with the motive and method. Individual vertebrates are also killed by conservationists. Whether securing conservation goals is an adequate reason for such killing has recently been challenged. Conventional conservation practice has tended to prioritise ecological collectives, such as populations and species, when their interests conflict with those of individuals. Supporters of the 'Compassionate Conservation' movement argue both that conservationists have neglected animal welfare when such conflicts arise and that no killing for conservation is justified. We counter that conservationists increasingly seek to adhere to high standards of welfare, and that the extreme position advocated by some supporters of 'Compassionate Conservation', rooted in virtue ethics, would, if widely accepted, lead to considerable negative effects for conservation. Conservation practice cannot afford to neglect consequences. Moreover, the do-no-harm maxim does not always lead to better outcomes for animal welfare.

Inequality in access to cultural ecosystem services from protected areas in the Chilean biodiversity hotspot.

Experiences with nature through visits to protected areas provide important cultural ecosystem services that have the potential to strengthen pro-environmental attitudes and behavior. Understanding accessibility to protected areas and likely preferences for enjoying the benefits of nature visits are key factors in identifying ways to reduce inequality in access and inform the planning and management for future protected areas. We develop, at a regional scale, a novel social media database of visits to public protected areas in part of the Chilean biodiversity hotspot using geotagged photographs and assess the inequality of access using the home locations of the visitors and socio-economic data. We find that 20% of the population of the region make 87% of the visits to protected areas. The larger, more biodiverse protected areas were the most visited and provided most cultural ecosystem services. Wealthier people tend to travel further to visit protected areas while people with lower incomes tend to visit protected areas that are closer to home. By providing information on the current spatial flows of people to protected areas, we demonstrate the need to expand the protected area network, especially in lower income areas, to reduce inequality in access to the benefits from cultural ecosystem services provided by nature to people.

Reach and messages of the world's largest ivory burn.

Recent increases in ivory poaching have depressed African elephant populations. Successful enforcement has led to ivory stockpiling. Stockpile destruction is becoming increasingly popular, and most destruction has occurred in the last 5 years. Ivory destruction is intended to send a strong message against ivory consumption, both in promoting a taboo on ivory use and catalyzing policy change. However, there has been no effort to establish the distribution and extent of media reporting on ivory destruction events globally. We analyzed media coverage of the largest ivory destruction event in history (Kenya, 30 April 2016) across 11 nation states connected to ivory trade. We used an online-media crawling tool to search online media outlets and subjected 5 of the largest print newspapers (by circulation) in 5 nations of interest to content analysis. Most online news on the ivory burn came from the United States (81% of 1944 articles), whereas most of the print news articles came from Kenya (61% of 157 articles). Eighty-six to 97% of all online articles reported the burn as a positive conservation action, whereas 4-50% discussed ivory burning as having a negative impact on elephant conservation. Most articles discussed law enforcement and trade bans as effective for elephant conservation. There was more relative search interest globally in the 2016 Kenyan ivory burn than any other burn in 5 years. Ours is the first attempt to track the reach of media coverage relative to an ivory burn and provides a case study in tracking the effects of a conservation-marketing event.

Developing a theory of change for a community-based response to illegal wildlife trade.

The escalating illegal wildlife trade (IWT) is one of the most high-profile conservation challenges today. The crisis has attracted over US$350 million in donor and government funding in recent years, primarily directed at increased enforcement. There is growing recognition among practitioners and policy makers of the need to engage rural communities that neighbor or live with wildlife as key partners in tackling IWT. However, a framework to guide such community engagement is lacking. We developed a theory of change (ToC) to guide policy makers, donors, and practitioners in partnering with communities to combat IWT. We identified 4 pathways for community-level actions: strengthen disincentives for illegal behavior, increase incentives for wildlife stewardship, decrease costs of living with wildlife, and support livelihoods that are not related to wildlife. To succeed the pathways, all require strengthening of enabling conditions, including capacity building, and of governance. Our ToC serves to guide actions to tackle IWT and to inform the evaluation of policies. Moreover, it can be used to foster dialogue among IWT stakeholders, from local communities to governments and international donors, to develop a more effective, holistic, and sustainable community-based response to the IWT crisis.