Population and community ecology: past progress and future directions.

Population and community ecology as a science are about 100 years old, and we discuss here our opinion of what approaches have progressed well and which point to possible future directions. The three major threads within population and community ecology are theoretical ecology, statistical tests and models, and experimental ecology. We suggest that our major objective is to understand what factors determine the distribution and abundance of organisms within populations and communities, and we evaluate these threads against this major objective. Theoretical ecology is elegant and compelling and has laid the groundwork for achieving our overall objectives with useful simple models. Statistics and statistical models have contributed informative methods to analyze quantitatively our understanding of distribution and abundance for future research. Population ecology is difficult to carry out in the field, even though we may have all the statistical methods and models needed to achieve results. Community ecology is growing rapidly with much description but less understanding of why changes occur. Biodiversity science cuts across all these subdivisions but rarely digs into the necessary population and community science that might solve conservation problems. Climate change affects all aspects of ecology but to assume that everything in population and community ecology is driven by climate change is oversimplified. We make recommendations on how to advance the field with advice for present and future generations of population and community ecologists.

A future food boom rescues the negative effects of early-life adversity on adult lifespan in a small mammal.

Early-life adversity, even when transient, can have lasting effects on individual phenotypes and reduce lifespan across species. If these effects can be mitigated by a high-quality later-life environment, then differences in future resources may explain variable resilience to early-life adversity. Using data from over 1000 wild North American red squirrels, we tested the hypothesis that the costs of early-life adversity for adult lifespan could be offset by later-life food abundance. We identified six adversities that reduced juvenile survival in the first year of life, though only one-birth date-had continued independent effects on adult lifespan. We then built a weighted early-life adversity (wELA) index integrating the sum of adversities and their effect sizes. Greater weighted early-life adversity predicted shorter adult lifespans in males and females, but a naturally occurring food boom in the second year of life ameliorated this effect. Experimental food supplementation did not replicate this pattern, despite increasing lifespan, indicating that the buffering effect of a future food boom may hinge on more than an increase in available calories. Our results suggest a non-deterministic role of early-life conditions for later-life phenotype, highlighting the importance of evaluating the consequences of early-life adversity in the context of an animal's entire life course.

Effectiveness of population-based recovery actions for threatened southern mountain caribou.

Habitat loss is affecting many species, including the southern mountain caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) population in western North America. Over the last half century, this threatened caribou population's range and abundance have dramatically contracted. An integrated population model was used to analyze 51 years (1973-2023) of demographic data from 40 southern mountain caribou subpopulations to assess the effectiveness of population-based recovery actions at increasing population growth. Reducing potential limiting factors on threatened caribou populations offered a rare opportunity to identify the causes of decline and assess methods of recovery. Southern mountain caribou abundance declined by 51% between 1991 and 2023, and 37% of subpopulations were functionally extirpated. Wolf reduction was the only recovery action that consistently increased population growth when applied in isolation, and combinations of wolf reductions with maternal penning or supplemental feeding provided rapid growth but were applied to only four subpopulations. As of 2023, recovery actions have increased the abundance of southern mountain caribou by 52%, compared to a simulation with no interventions. When predation pressure was reduced, rapid population growth was observed, even under contemporary climate change and high levels of habitat loss. Unless predation is reduced, caribou subpopulations will continue to be extirpated well before habitat conservation and restoration can become effective.

Habitat alteration or climate: What drives the densities of an invading ungulate?

Anthropogenic habitat alteration and climate change are two well-known contributors to biodiversity loss through changes to species distribution and abundance; yet, disentangling the effects of these two factors is often hindered by their inherent confound across both space and time. We leveraged a contrast in habitat alteration associated with the jurisdictional boundary between two Canadian provinces to evaluate the relative effects of spatial variation in habitat alteration and climate on white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) densities. White-tailed deer are an invading ungulate across much of North America, whose expansion into Canada's boreal forest is implicated in the decline of boreal caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou), a species listed as Threatened in Canada. We estimated white-tailed deer densities using 300 remote cameras across 12 replicated 50 km2 landscapes over 5 years. White-tailed deer densities were significantly lower in areas where winter severity was higher. For example, predicted deer densities declined from 1.83 to 0.35 deer/km2 when winter severity increased from the lowest value to the median value. There was a tendency for densities to increase with increasing habitat alteration; however, the magnitude of this effect was approximately half that of climate. Our findings suggest that climate is the primary driver of white-tailed deer populations; however, understanding the mechanisms underpinning this relationship requires further study of over-winter survival and fecundity. Long-term monitoring at the invasion front is needed to evaluate the drivers of abundance over time, particularly given the unpredictability of climate change and increasing prevalence of extreme weather events.

Inferring condition in wild mammals: body condition indices confer no benefit over measuring body mass across ecological contexts.

Many studies assume that it is beneficial for individuals of a species to be heavier, or have a higher body condition index (BCI), without accounting for the physiological relevance of variation in the composition of different body tissues. We hypothesized that the relationship between BCI and masses of physiologically important tissues (fat and lean) would be conditional on annual patterns of energy acquisition and expenditure. We studied three species with contrasting ecologies in their respective natural ranges: an obligate hibernator (Columbian ground squirrel, Urocitellus columbianus), a facultative hibernator (black-tailed prairie dog, Cynomys ludovicianus), and a food-caching non-hibernator (North American red squirrel, Tamiasciurus hudsonicus). We measured fat and lean mass in adults of both sexes using quantitative magnetic resonance (QMR). We measured body mass and two measures of skeletal structure (zygomatic width and right hind foot length) to develop sex- and species-specific BCIs, and tested the utility of BCI to predict body composition in each species. Body condition indices were more consistently, and more strongly correlated, with lean mass than fat mass. The indices were most positively correlated with fat when fat was expected to be very high (pre-hibernation prairie dogs). In all cases, however, BCI was never better than body mass alone in predicting fat or lean mass. While the accuracy of BCI in estimating fat varied across the natural histories and annual energetic patterns of the species considered, measuring body mass alone was as effective, or superior in capturing sufficient variation in fat and lean in most cases.

Consistent spatial patterns in microbial taxa of red squirrel gut microbiomes.

Gut microbiomes are diverse ecosystems whose drivers of variation remain largely unknown, especially in time and space. We analysed a dataset with over 900 red squirrel (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus) gut microbiome samples to identify the drivers of gut microbiome composition in this territorial rodent. The large-scale spatiotemporal replication in the data analysed was an essential component of understanding the assembly of these microbial communities. We identified that the spatial location of the sampled squirrels in their local environment is a key contributor to gut microbial community composition. The non-core gut microbiome (present in less than 75% of gut microbiome samples) had highly localised spatial patterns throughout different seasons and different study areas in the host squirrel population. The core gut microbiome, on the other hand, showed some spatial patterns, though fewer than in the non-core gut microbiome. Environmental transmission of microbiota is the likely contributor to the spatiotemporal distribution observed in the North American red squirrel gut microbiome.

When death comes: linking predator-prey activity patterns to timing of mortality to understand predation risk.

The assumption that activity and foraging are risky for prey underlies many predator-prey theories and has led to the use of predator-prey activity overlap as a proxy of predation risk. However, the simultaneous measures of prey and predator activity along with timing of predation required to test this assumption have not been available. Here, we used accelerometry data on snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus) and Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) to determine activity patterns of prey and predators and match these to precise timing of predation. Surprisingly we found that lynx kills of hares were as likely to occur during the day when hares were inactive as at night when hares were active. We also found that activity rates of hares were not related to the chance of predation at daily and weekly scales, whereas lynx activity rates positively affected the diel pattern of lynx predation on hares and their weekly kill rates of hares. Our findings suggest that predator-prey diel activity overlap may not always be a good proxy of predation risk, and highlight a need for examining the link between predation and spatio-temporal behaviour of predator and prey to improve our understanding of how predator-prey behavioural interactions drive predation risk.

Does coat colour influence survival? A test in a cyclic population of snowshoe hares.

Some mammal species inhabiting high-latitude biomes have evolved a seasonal moulting pattern that improves camouflage via white coats in winter and brown coats in summer. In many high-latitude and high-altitude areas, the duration and depth of snow cover has been substantially reduced in the last five decades. This reduction in depth and duration of snow cover may create a mismatch between coat colour and colour of the background environment, and potentially reduce the survival rate of species that depend on crypsis. We used long-term (1977-2020) field data and capture-mark-recapture models to test the hypothesis that whiteness of the coat influences winter apparent survival in a cyclic population of snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus) at Kluane, Yukon, Canada. Whiteness of the snowshoe hare coat in autumn declined during this study, and snowshoe hares with a greater proportion of whiteness in their coats in autumn survived better during winter. However, whiteness of the coat in spring did not affect subsequent summer survival. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that the timing of coat colour change in autumn can reduce overwinter survival. Because declines in cyclic snowshoe hare populations are strongly affected by low winter survival, the timing of coat colour change may adversely affect snowshoe hare population dynamics as climate change continues.

Benefits of living closer to kin vary by genealogical relationship in a territorial mammal.

While cooperative interactions among kin are a key building block in the societies of group-living species, their importance for species with more variable social environments is unclear. North American red squirrels (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus) defend individual territories in dynamic neighbourhoods and are known to benefit from living among familiar conspecifics, but not relatives. However, kin-directed behaviours may be restricted to specific genealogical relationships or strongly mediated by geographical distance, masking their influence at broader scales. Using distance between territories as a proxy for the ability of individuals to interact, we estimated the influence of primary kin (parents, offspring, siblings) on the annual survival and reproductive success of red squirrels. This approach revealed associations between fitness and access to kin, but only for certain genealogical relationships and fitness components. For example, females had enhanced annual survival when living closer to their daughters, though the reverse was not true. Most surprising was the finding that males had higher annual reproductive success when living closer to their father, suggesting possible recognition and cooperation among fathers and sons. Together, these findings point to unexpected nuance in the fitness consequences of kinship dynamics for a species that is territorial and largely solitary.

Phenotype-environment mismatch errors enhance lifetime fitness in wild red squirrels.

Mismatches between an organism's phenotype and its environment can result in short-term fitness costs. Here, we show that some phenotype-environment mismatch errors can be explained by asymmetrical costs of different types of errors in wild red squirrels. Mothers that mistakenly increased reproductive effort when signals of an upcoming food pulse were absent were more likely to correctly increase effort when a food pulse did occur. However, mothers that failed to increase effort when cues of an upcoming food pulse were present suffered lifetime fitness costs that could only be offset through food supplementation. In fluctuating environments, such phenotype-environment mismatches may therefore reflect a bias to overestimate environmental cues and avoid making the costliest error, ultimately enhancing lifetime fitness.

Coat color mismatch improves survival of a keystone boreal herbivore: Energetic advantages exceed lost camouflage.

Climate warming is causing asynchronies between animal phenology and environments. Mismatched traits, such as coat color change mismatched with snow, can decrease survival. However, coat change does not serve a singular adaptive benefit of camouflage, and alternate coat change functions may confer advantages that supersede mismatch costs. We found that mismatch reduced, rather than increased, autumn mortality risk of snowshoe hares in Yukon by 86.5% when mismatch occurred. We suggest that the increased coat insulation and lower metabolic rates of winter-acclimatized hares confer energetic advantages to white mismatched hares that reduce their mortality risk. We found that white mismatched hares forage 17-77 min less per day than matched brown hares between 0°C and -10°C, thus lowering their predation risk and increasing survival. We found no effect of mismatch on spring mortality risk, during which mismatch occurred at warmer temperatures, suggesting a potential temperature limit at which the costs of conspicuousness outweigh energetic benefits.

Density-dependent plasticity in territoriality revealed using social network analysis.

Territories are typically defined as spatially exclusive areas that are defended against conspecifics. Given the spatial nature of territoriality, it is inherently density dependent, but the economics of territoriality also depend on the distribution and abundance of defended resources. Our objectives were to assess the effects of changing population density and food availability on individually based territorial phenotypes. We developed a novel analytical framework that bridges spatially explicit territories with social network analysis to model density-dependent territorial phenotypes. Using the outputs from our data pipeline, we modelled plasticity in territory size and territory intrusion rates in a long-term study population of North American red squirrels Tamiasciurus hudsonicus. Red squirrels defend year-round territories around a central hoard (midden) of white spruce Picea glauca cones. Importantly, white spruce is a masting species that produces large cone crops every 4-7 years (i.e. mast years) in our study area interspersed with non-mast years when few cones are produced. In the spring following mast years, populations are approximately double in size, but are lower in the spring of non-mast years. We predicted that territory size and intrusion rates would decrease as resource abundance, and consequently population density, increased. By contrast, as resource abundance decreased via depletion, and therefore density decreased, territories should increase in size and intrusions should also increase. As we expected, individual territory size and territorial intrusions were negatively density dependent, such that increased density after mast years resulted in smaller territories and fewer intrusions. When considering between-individual variation in plasticity across a density gradient, individuals responded differently to changes in population density within their lifetime. Our results show that territory size and intrusion rates display negative density dependence. When food becomes available in the autumn of a mast year and density in spring of the following year increases, territories shrink in size to effectively a small area around the midden. While our findings for red squirrels are unique compared to other systems, they serve as a reminder that the direction and strength of fundamental ecological relationships can depend on the nature of the system.

The glucocorticoid response to environmental change is not specific to agents of natural selection in wild red squirrels.

Evolutionary endocrinology aims to understand how natural selection shapes endocrine systems and the degree to which endocrine systems themselves can induce phenotypic responses to environmental changes. Such responses may be specialized in that they reflect past selection for responsiveness only to those ecological factors that ultimately influence natural selection. Alternatively, endocrine responses may be broad and generalized, allowing organisms to cope with a variety of environmental changes simultaneously. Here, we empirically tested whether the endocrine response of female North American red squirrels (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus) was specialized or generalized. We first quantified the direction and magnitude of natural selection acting on three female life history traits (parturition date, litter size, offspring postnatal growth rate) during 32 years of fluctuations in four potential ecological agents of selection (food availability, conspecific density, predator abundance, and temperature). Only three of the four variables (food, density, and predators) affected patterns of natural selection on female life history traits. We then quantified fecal glucocorticoid metabolites (FGMs) across 7 years and found that all four environmental variables, regardless of their effects on patterns of selection, were associated with glucocorticoid production. Our results provide support for a generalized, rather than specific, glucocorticoid response to environmental change that can integrate across multiple co-occurring environmental stressors.

Integrative Studies of the Effects of Mothers on Offspring: An Example from Wild North American Red Squirrels.

Animal species vary in whether they provide parental care or the type of care provided, and this variation in parental care among species has been a common focus of comparative studies. However, the proximate causes and ultimate consequences of within-species variation in parental care have been less studied. Most studies about the impacts of within-species variation in parental care on parental fitness have been in primates, whereas studies in laboratory rodents have been invaluable for understanding what causes inter-individual variation in parental care and its influence on offspring characteristics. We integrated both of these perspectives in our long-term study of North American red squirrels (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus) in the Yukon, Canada, where we have focused on understanding the impacts of mothers on offspring. This includes documenting the impacts that mothers or the maternal environment itself has on their offspring, identifying how changes in maternal physiology impact offspring characteristics, the presence of individual variation in maternal attentiveness toward offspring before weaning and its fitness consequences, and postweaning maternal care and its fitness consequences. We provide an overview of these contributions to understanding the impacts mothers have on their offspring in red squirrels using an integrative framework and contrast them with studies in the laboratory.

Genetic variance in fitness indicates rapid contemporary adaptive evolution in wild animals.

The rate of adaptive evolution, the contribution of selection to genetic changes that increase mean fitness, is determined by the additive genetic variance in individual relative fitness. To date, there are few robust estimates of this parameter for natural populations, and it is therefore unclear whether adaptive evolution can play a meaningful role in short-term population dynamics. We developed and applied quantitative genetic methods to long-term datasets from 19 wild bird and mammal populations and found that, while estimates vary between populations, additive genetic variance in relative fitness is often substantial and, on average, twice that of previous estimates. We show that these rates of contemporary adaptive evolution can affect population dynamics and hence that natural selection has the potential to partly mitigate effects of current environmental change.

Indigenous-led conservation: Pathways to recovery for the nearly extirpated Klinse-Za mountain caribou.

Indigenous Peoples around the northern hemisphere have long relied on caribou for subsistence and for ceremonial and community purposes. Unfortunately, despite recovery efforts by federal and provincial agencies, caribou are currently in decline in many areas across Canada. In response to recent and dramatic declines of mountain caribou populations within their traditional territory, West Moberly First Nations and Saulteau First Nations (collectively, the "Nations") came together to create a new vision for caribou recovery on the lands they have long stewarded and shared. The Nations focused on the Klinse-Za subpopulation, which had once encompassed so many caribou that West Moberly Elders remarked that they were "like bugs on the landscape." The Klinse-Za caribou declined from ~250 in the 1990s to only 38 in 2013, rendering Indigenous harvest of caribou nonviable and infringing on treaty rights to a subsistence livelihood. In collaboration with many groups and governments, this Indigenous-led conservation initiative paired short-term population recovery actions, predator reduction and maternal penning, with long-term habitat protection in an effort to create a self-sustaining caribou population. Here, we review these recovery actions and the promising evidence that the abundance of Klinse-Za caribou has more than doubled from 38 animals in 2013 to 101 in 2021, representing rapid population growth in response to recovery actions. With looming extirpation averted, the Nations focused efforts on securing a landmark conservation agreement in 2020 that protects caribou habitat over a 7986-km2 area. The Agreement provides habitat protection for >85% of the Klinse-Za subpopulation (up from only 1.8% protected pre-conservation agreement) and affords moderate protection for neighboring caribou subpopulations (29%-47% of subpopulation areas, up from 0%-20%). This Indigenous-led conservation initiative has set both the Indigenous and Canadian governments on the path to recover the Klinse-Za subpopulation and reinstate a culturally meaningful caribou hunt. This effort highlights how Indigenous governance and leadership can be the catalyst needed to establish meaningful conservation actions, enhance endangered species recovery, and honor cultural connections to now imperiled wildlife.

Balancing food acquisition and predation risk drives demographic changes in snowshoe hare population cycles.

Snowshoe hare cycles are one of the most prominent phenomena in ecology. Experimental studies point to predation as the dominant driving factor, but previous experiments combining food supplementation and predator removal produced unexplained multiplicative effects on density. We examined the potential interactive effects of food limitation and predation in causing hare cycles using an individual-based food-supplementation experiment over-winter across three cycle phases that naturally varied in predation risk. Supplementation doubled over-winter survival with the largest effects occurring in the late increase phase. Although the proximate cause of mortality was predation, supplemented hares significantly decreased foraging time and selected for conifer habitat, potentially reducing their predation risk. Supplemented hares also lost less body mass which resulted in the production of larger leverets. Our results establish a mechanistic link between how foraging time, mass loss and predation risk affect survival and reproduction, potentially driving demographic changes associated with hare cycles.

MASTREE+: Time-series of plant reproductive effort from six continents.

Significant gaps remain in understanding the response of plant reproduction to environmental change. This is partly because measuring reproduction in long-lived plants requires direct observation over many years and such datasets have rarely been made publicly available. Here we introduce MASTREE+, a data set that collates reproductive time-series data from across the globe and makes these data freely available to the community. MASTREE+ includes 73,828 georeferenced observations of annual reproduction (e.g. seed and fruit counts) in perennial plant populations worldwide. These observations consist of 5971 population-level time-series from 974 species in 66 countries. The mean and median time-series length is 12.4 and 10 years respectively, and the data set includes 1122 series that extend over at least two decades (≥20 years of observations). For a subset of well-studied species, MASTREE+ includes extensive replication of time-series across geographical and climatic gradients. Here we describe the open-access data set, available as a.csv file, and we introduce an associated web-based app for data exploration. MASTREE+ will provide the basis for improved understanding of the response of long-lived plant reproduction to environmental change. Additionally, MASTREE+ will enable investigation of the ecology and evolution of reproductive strategies in perennial plants, and the role of plant reproduction as a driver of ecosystem dynamics.

Aún existen importantes vacíos en la comprensión de la respuesta reproductiva de las plantas al cambio medioambiental, en parte, porque su monitoreo en especies de plantas longevas requiere una observación directa durante muchos años, y estos conjuntos de datos rara vez han estado disponibles. Aquí presentamos a MASTREE +, una base de datos que recopila series de tiempo de la reproducción de las plantas de todo el planeta, poniendo a disposición estos datos de libre acceso para la comunidad científica. MASTREE + incluye 73.828 puntos de observación de la reproducción anual georreferenciados (ej. conteos de semillas y frutos) en poblaciones de plantas perennes en todo el mundo. Estas observaciones consisten en 5971 series temporales a nivel de población provenientes de 974 especies en 66 países. La mediana de la duración de las series de tiempo es de 10 años (media = 12.4 años) y el conjunto de datos incluye 1.122 series de al menos dos décadas (≥20 años de observaciones). Para un subconjunto de especies bien estudiadas, MASTREE +incluye un amplio conjunto de series temporales replicadas en gradientes geográficos y climáticos. Describimos el conjunto de datos de acceso abierto disponible como un archivo.csv y presentamos una aplicación web asociada para la exploración de datos. MASTREE+ proporcionará la base para mejorar la comprensión sobre la respuesta reproductiva de plantas longevas al cambio medioambiental. Además, MASTREE+ facilitará los avances en la investigación de la ecología y la evolución de las estrategias reproductivas en plantas perennes y el papel de la reproducción vegetal como determinante de la dinámica de ecosistemas.

Glucocorticoids coordinate changes in gut microbiome composition in wild North American red squirrels.

The gut microbiome impacts host health and fitness, in part through the diversification of gut metabolic function and pathogen protection. Elevations in glucocorticoids (GCs) appear to reduce gut microbiome diversity in experimental studies, suggesting that a loss of microbial diversity may be a negative consequence of increased GCs. However, given that ecological factors like food availability and population density may independently influence both GCs and microbial diversity, understanding how these factors structure the GC-microbiome relationship is crucial to interpreting its significance in wild populations. Here, we used an ecological framework to investigate the relationship between GCs and gut microbiome diversity in wild North American red squirrels (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus). As expected, higher GCs predicted lower gut microbiome diversity and an increase in metabolic taxa. Surprisingly, but in line with prior empirical studies on wild animals, gastrointestinal pathogens decreased as GCs increased. Both dietary heterogeneity and an upcoming food pulse exhibited direct effects on gut microbiome diversity, whereas conspecific density and reproductive activity impacted diversity indirectly via changes in host GCs. Our results provide evidence of a gut-brain axis in wild red squirrels and highlight the importance of situating the GC-gut microbiome relationship within an ecological framework.

Resource exploitation efficiency collapses the home range of an apex predator.

Optimizing energy acquisition and expenditure is a fundamental trade-off for consumers, strikingly reflected in how mobile organisms use space. Several studies have established that home range size decreases as resource density increases, but the balance of costs and benefits associated with exploiting a given resource density is unclear. We evaluate how the ability of consumers to exploit their resources through movement (termed "resource exploitation") interacts with resource density to influence home range size. We then contrast two hypotheses to evaluate how resource exploitation influences home range size across a vast gradient of productivity and density of human-created linear features (roads and seismic lines) that are known to facilitate animal movements. Under the Diffusion Facilitation Hypothesis, linear features are predicted to lead to more diffuse space use and larger home ranges. Under the Exploitation Efficiency Hypothesis, linear features are predicted to increase foraging efficiency, resulting in less space being required to meet energetic demands and therefore smaller home ranges. Using GPS telemetry data from 142 wolves (Canis lupus) distributed over more than 500,000 km2 , we found that wolf home range size was influenced by the interaction between resource density and exploitation efficiency. Home range size decreased as linear feature density increased, supporting the Exploitation Efficiency Hypothesis. However, the effect of linear features on home range size diminished in more productive areas, suggesting that exploitation efficiency is of greater importance when resource density is low. These results suggest that smaller home ranges will occur where both linear feature density and primary productivity are higher, thereby increasing regional wolf density.