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Ischaemic or haemorrhagic perioperative stroke (that is, stroke occurring during or within 30 days following surgery) can be a devastating complication following surgery. Incidence is reported in the 0.1-0.7% range in adults undergoing non-cardiac and non-neurological surgery, in the 1-5% range in patients undergoing cardiac surgery and in the 1-10% range following neurological surgery. However, higher rates have been reported when patients are actively assessed and in high-risk populations. Prognosis is significantly worse than stroke occurring in the community, with double the 30-day mortality, greater disability and diminished quality of life among survivors. Considering the annual volume of surgeries performed worldwide, perioperative stroke represents a substantial burden. Despite notable differences in aetiology, patient populations and clinical settings, existing clinical recommendations for perioperative stroke are extrapolated mainly from stroke in the community. Perioperative in-hospital stroke is unique with respect to the stroke occurring in other settings, and it is essential to apply evidence from other settings with caution and to identify existing knowledge gaps in order to effectively guide patient care and future research.
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Procedimentos Cirúrgicos Cardíacos , Acidente Vascular Cerebral , Adulto , Humanos , Qualidade de Vida , Acidente Vascular Cerebral/complicações , Acidente Vascular Cerebral/epidemiologia , Fatores de RiscoRESUMO
OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to understand the role of surgical Trainee Research Collaboratives (TRCs) in conducting randomised controlled trials and identify strategies to enhance trainee engagement in trials. DESIGN: This is a mixed methods study. We used observation of TRC meetings, semi-structured interviews and an online survey to explore trainees' motivations for engagement in trials and TRCs, including barriers and facilitators. Interviews were analysed thematically, alongside observation field notes. Survey responses were analysed using descriptive statistics. Strategies to enhance TRCs were developed at a workshop by 13 trial methodologists, surgical trainees, consultants and research nurses. SETTING: This study was conducted within a secondary care setting in the UK. PARTICIPANTS: The survey was sent to registered UK surgical trainees. TRC members and linked stakeholders across surgical specialties and UK regions were purposefully sampled for interviews. RESULTS: We observed 5 TRC meetings, conducted 32 semi-structured interviews and analysed 73 survey responses. TRCs can mobilise trainees thus gaining wider access to patients. Trainees engaged with TRCs to improve patient care, surgical evidence and to help progress their careers. Trainees valued the TRC infrastructure, research expertise and mentoring. Challenges for trainees included clinical and other priorities, limited time and confidence, and recognition, especially by authorship. Key TRC strategies were consultant support, initial simple rapid studies, transparency of involvement and recognition for trainees (including authorship policies) and working with Clinical Trials Units and research nurses. A 6 min digital story on YouTube disseminated these strategies. CONCLUSION: Trainee surgeons are mostly motivated to engage with trials and TRCs. Trainee engagement in TRCs can be enhanced through building relationships with key stakeholders, maximising multi-disciplinary working and offering training and career development opportunities.
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Especialidades Cirúrgicas , Cirurgiões , Humanos , Educação de Pós-Graduação em Medicina , Cirurgiões/educação , Motivação , Inquéritos e Questionários , Ensaios Clínicos Controlados Aleatórios como AssuntoRESUMO
Carotid atherosclerotic disease continues to be an important cause of stroke, often disabling or fatal. Such strokes could be largely prevented through optimal medical therapy and carotid revascularization. Advancements in discovery research and imaging along with evidence from recent pharmacology and interventional clinical trials and registries and the progress in acute stroke management have markedly expanded knowledge base for clinical decisions in carotid stenosis. Nevertheless, there is variability in carotid-related stroke prevention and management strategies across medical specialities. Optimal patient care can be achieved by (1) establishing a unified knowledge foundation and (2) fostering multi-specialty collaborative guidelines. The emergent Neuro-Vascular Team concept, mirroring the multi-disciplinary Heart Team, embraces diverse specializations, tailores personalized, stratified medicine approaches to individual patient needs, and integrates innovative imaging and risk-assessment biomarkers. Proposed approach integrates collaboration of multiple specialists central to carotid artery stenosis management such as neurology, stroke medicine, cardiology, angiology, ophthalmology, vascular surgery, endovascular interventions, neuroradiology and neurosurgery. Moreover, patient education regarding current treatment options, their risks and advantages, is pivotal, promting patient's active role in clinical care decisions. This enables optimization of interventions ranging from lifestyle modification, carotid revascularization by stenting or endarterectomy, as well as pharmacological management encompassing statins, novel lipid-lowering and antithrombotic strategies and targeting inflammation and vascular dysfunction. This consensus document provides a harmonized multi-specialty approach to multimorbidity prevention in carotid stenosis patients, based on comprehensive knowledge review, pinpointing research gaps in an evidence-based medicine approach. It aims to be a foundational tool for interdisciplinary collaboration and prioritized patient-centric decision-making.
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BACKGROUND: Individuals with significant asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis (ACAS) and atrial fibrillation (AF) could benefit from specific interventions to prevent heart attack and stroke, but are often clinically 'silent'. We aimed to determine detection rate of ACAS and AF by screening, targeting a population at increased cardiovascular risk. METHODS: Data on adults who attended voluntary and self-funded commercial screening clinics in the United States or the United Kingdom between 2008 and 2013 were used. The Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ASCVD) risk equation was applied to each participants and detection rates of targeted screening for ≥50% ACAS and AF to those at highest risk of CVD was assessed. RESULTS: Among 0.4 million individuals between 40 and 80 years, without CVD, 6191 (1.6%) had ACAS and 1026 (0.3%) had AF. Selective screening of participants with a predicted 10-year CVD risk of ≥20% identified 40% of ACAS cases, a prevalence of 3.7%, leading to a number needed to screen (NNS) of 27, as well as 39% of AF cases, a prevalence of 0.6%, with a NNS of 170. Selective screening of those with a predicted 10-year CVD risk of ≥15% identified 54% of ACAS cases, a prevalence of 3.3%, and an NNS of 31, as well as 51% of AF cases, a prevalence of 0.5%, with an NNS of 195. CONCLUSIONS: Selective screening for ACAS and AF implemented in ASCVD risk assessment greatly reduces the NNS when compared with population-level screening with detection rates of ACAS and AF substantially greater in people at higher predicted CVD risk.
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Aterosclerose , Fibrilação Atrial , Doenças Cardiovasculares , Estenose das Carótidas , Acidente Vascular Cerebral , Adulto , Humanos , Estenose das Carótidas/diagnóstico por imagem , Estenose das Carótidas/epidemiologia , Doenças Cardiovasculares/diagnóstico , Doenças Cardiovasculares/epidemiologia , Fibrilação Atrial/diagnóstico , Fibrilação Atrial/epidemiologia , Acidente Vascular Cerebral/diagnóstico , Acidente Vascular Cerebral/epidemiologia , Acidente Vascular Cerebral/etiologia , Medição de Risco , Fatores de Risco , Programas de RastreamentoRESUMO
Introduction: Populations at increased risk of dementia need to be identified for well-powered trials of preventive interventions. Weight loss, which often occurs in pre-clinical dementia, could identify a population at sufficiently high dementia risk. Methods: In 12,975 survivors in the Heart Protection Study statin trial of people with, or at high risk of, cardiovascular disease, the association of weight change over 5 years during the trial with post-trial dementia recorded in electronic hospital admission and death records (n = 784) was assessed, after adjustment for age, sex, treatment allocation, and deprivation measures. Results: Among the 60% without substantial weight gain (≤2 kg weight gain), each 1 kg weight loss was associated with a risk ratio for dementia of 1.04 (95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.07). Weight loss ≥4 kg and cognitive function below the mean identified participants aged ≥67 years with a 13% 10-year dementia risk. Discussion: The combination of weight loss and high vascular risk identified individuals at high risk of dementia who could be recruited to dementia prevention trials.
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OBJECTIVE: Stroke and carotid atherosclerosis are associated with dementia. Carotid endarterectomy (CEA) reduces stroke risk, although its effect on later dementia is uncertain. Participants in the Asymptomatic Carotid Surgery Trial (ACST-1), randomly allocated to immediate vs. deferral of CEA (i.e., no intervention unless or until triggered by ipsilateral transient ischaemic attack or stroke), were followed, to study effects on dementia. METHODS: From 1993 to 2003, ACST-1 included 3 120 participants with asymptomatic tight carotid stenosis. All UK and Swedish patients (n = 1 601; 796 immediate vs. 805 deferral) were followed with trial records, national electronic health record linkage, and (UK only) by post and telephone. Cumulative incidence and competing risk analyses were used to measure the effects of risk factors and CEA on dementia risk. Intention to treat analyses yielded hazard ratios (HRs; immediate vs. deferral) of dementia. RESULTS: The median follow up was 19.4 years (interquartile range 16.9 - 21.7). Dementia was recorded in 107 immediate CEA patients and 115 allocated delayed surgery; 1 290 patients died (1 091 [538 vs. 536] before any dementia diagnosis). Dementia incidence rose with age and with female sex (men: 8.3% aged < 70 years at trial entry vs. 15.1% aged ≥ 70; women: 15.1% aged < 70 years at trial entry vs. 22.4% aged ≥ 70 years) and was higher in those with pre-existing cerebral infarction (silent or with prior symptoms; 20.2% vs. 13.6%). Dementia risk was similar in both randomised groups: 6.7% vs. 6.6% at 10 years and 14.3% vs. 15.5% at 20 years, respectively. The dementia HR was 0.98 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.75 - 1.28; p = .89), with no heterogeneity in the neutral effect of immediate CEA on dementia related to age, carotid stenosis, blood pressure, diabetes, country of residence, or medical treatments at trial entry (heterogeneity values p > .05). CONCLUSION: CEA was not associated with significant reductions in the long term hazards of dementia, but the CI did not exclude a proportional benefit or hazard of about 25%.
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Demência , Endarterectomia das Carótidas , Idoso , Estenose das Carótidas/cirurgia , Demência/epidemiologia , Endarterectomia das Carótidas/efeitos adversos , Feminino , Humanos , Incidência , Masculino , Fatores de Risco , Acidente Vascular Cerebral/epidemiologiaRESUMO
OBJECTIVE: Observational studies demonstrate an inverse association between type II diabetes and abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) for reasons that are unclear. The aim of this study was to clarify the causal association between type II diabetes predisposition and AAA using Mendelian randomisation. METHODS: Effect estimates for single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with diabetes were obtained from the DIAbetes Meta-ANalysis of Trans-Ethnic association studies (DIAMANTE) consortium to construct a genetic instrumental variable. Corresponding effect estimates for associations of these SNPs with AAA were obtained from the International Aneurysm Consortium comprising six separate AAA genomewide association studies (4 972 cases and 99 858 controls). Mendelian randomisation estimates were calculated using inverse variance, weighted median, and MR-Egger methods, and compared against recently published observational estimates. RESULTS: A genetic risk score was constructed from 206 SNPs associated with diabetes. All three Mendelian randomisation models showed no effect of genetic liability to diabetes and risk of AAA (inverse variance: odds ratio 1.04 per unit higher log odds, 95% 0.98 - 1.11, p = .19; MR-Egger slope p = .33; weighted median p = .50). Results were similar after excluding the TCF7L2 locus (inverse variance p = .075). Findings from the Mendelian randomisation analysis differed from previous observational reports of an inverse association (pdif < .001). CONCLUSION: Lifelong genetic predisposition to diabetes does not appear to protect against AAA. These findings differ from traditional epidemiological studies showing an inverse association between diabetes and AAA, for reasons that remain unclear.
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Aneurisma da Aorta Abdominal , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2 , Aneurisma da Aorta Abdominal/epidemiologia , Aneurisma da Aorta Abdominal/genética , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/diagnóstico , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/epidemiologia , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/genética , Predisposição Genética para Doença , Estudo de Associação Genômica Ampla , Humanos , Análise da Randomização Mendeliana/métodos , Polimorfismo de Nucleotídeo ÚnicoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Among asymptomatic patients with severe carotid artery stenosis but no recent stroke or transient cerebral ischaemia, either carotid artery stenting (CAS) or carotid endarterectomy (CEA) can restore patency and reduce long-term stroke risks. However, from recent national registry data, each option causes about 1% procedural risk of disabling stroke or death. Comparison of their long-term protective effects requires large-scale randomised evidence. METHODS: ACST-2 is an international multicentre randomised trial of CAS versus CEA among asymptomatic patients with severe stenosis thought to require intervention, interpreted with all other relevant trials. Patients were eligible if they had severe unilateral or bilateral carotid artery stenosis and both doctor and patient agreed that a carotid procedure should be undertaken, but they were substantially uncertain which one to choose. Patients were randomly allocated to CAS or CEA and followed up at 1 month and then annually, for a mean 5 years. Procedural events were those within 30 days of the intervention. Intention-to-treat analyses are provided. Analyses including procedural hazards use tabular methods. Analyses and meta-analyses of non-procedural strokes use Kaplan-Meier and log-rank methods. The trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN21144362. FINDINGS: Between Jan 15, 2008, and Dec 31, 2020, 3625 patients in 130 centres were randomly allocated, 1811 to CAS and 1814 to CEA, with good compliance, good medical therapy and a mean 5 years of follow-up. Overall, 1% had disabling stroke or death procedurally (15 allocated to CAS and 18 to CEA) and 2% had non-disabling procedural stroke (48 allocated to CAS and 29 to CEA). Kaplan-Meier estimates of 5-year non-procedural stroke were 2·5% in each group for fatal or disabling stroke, and 5·3% with CAS versus 4·5% with CEA for any stroke (rate ratio [RR] 1·16, 95% CI 0·86-1·57; p=0·33). Combining RRs for any non-procedural stroke in all CAS versus CEA trials, the RR was similar in symptomatic and asymptomatic patients (overall RR 1·11, 95% CI 0·91-1·32; p=0·21). INTERPRETATION: Serious complications are similarly uncommon after competent CAS and CEA, and the long-term effects of these two carotid artery procedures on fatal or disabling stroke are comparable. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council and Health Technology Assessment Programme.
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Estenose das Carótidas/cirurgia , Endarterectomia das Carótidas/estatística & dados numéricos , Stents/estatística & dados numéricos , Acidente Vascular Cerebral/mortalidade , Idoso , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Fatores de Risco , Fatores de Tempo , Resultado do TratamentoRESUMO
Atherosclerotic stenosis of the internal carotid artery is an important cause of stroke. The aim of this guideline is to analyse the evidence pertaining to medical, surgical and endovascular treatment of patients with carotid stenosis. These guidelines were developed based on the ESO standard operating procedure and followed the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) approach. The working group identified relevant questions, performed systematic reviews and meta-analyses of the literature, assessed the quality of the available evidence, and wrote recommendations. Based on moderate quality evidence, we recommend carotid endarterectomy (CEA) in patients with ≥60-99% asymptomatic carotid stenosis considered to be at increased risk of stroke on best medical treatment (BMT) alone. We also recommend CEA for patients with ≥70-99% symptomatic stenosis, and we suggest CEA for patients with 50-69% symptomatic stenosis. Based on high quality evidence, we recommend CEA should be performed early, ideally within two weeks of the last retinal or cerebral ischaemic event in patients with ≥50-99% symptomatic stenosis. Based on low quality evidence, carotid artery stenting (CAS) may be considered in patients < 70 years old with symptomatic ≥50-99% carotid stenosis. Several randomised trials supporting these recommendations were started decades ago, and BMT, CEA and CAS have evolved since. The results of another large trial comparing outcomes after CAS versus CEA in patients with asymptomatic stenosis are anticipated in the near future. Further trials are needed to reassess the benefits of carotid revascularisation in combination with modern BMT in subgroups of patients with carotid stenosis.
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Atherosclerotic stenosis of the internal carotid artery is an important cause of stroke. The aim of this guideline is to analyse the evidence pertaining to medical, surgical and endovascular treatment of patients with carotid stenosis. These guidelines were developed based on the ESO standard operating procedure and followed the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) approach. The working group identified relevant questions, performed systematic reviews and meta-analyses of the literature, assessed the quality of the available evidence, and wrote recommendations. Based on moderate quality evidence, we recommend carotid endarterectomy (CEA) in patients with ≥60-99% asymptomatic carotid stenosis considered to be at increased risk of stroke on best medical treatment (BMT) alone. We also recommend CEA for patients with ≥70-99% symptomatic stenosis, and we suggest CEA for patients with 50-69% symptomatic stenosis. Based on high quality evidence, we recommend CEA should be performed early, ideally within two weeks of the last retinal or cerebral ischaemic event in patients with ≥50-99% symptomatic stenosis. Based on low quality evidence, carotid artery stenting (CAS) may be considered in patients < 70 years old with symptomatic ≥50-99% carotid stenosis. Several randomised trials supporting these recommendations were started decades ago, and BMT, CEA and CAS have evolved since. The results of another large trial comparing outcomes after CAS versus CEA in patients with asymptomatic stenosis are anticipated in the near future. Further trials are needed to reassess the benefits of carotid revascularisation in combination with modern BMT in subgroups of patients with carotid stenosis.
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OBJECTIVE: No dedicated studies have been performed on the optimal management of patients with an acute stroke related to carotid intervention nor is there a solid recommendation given in the European Society for Vascular Surgery guideline. By implementation of an international expert Delphi panel, this study aimed to obtain expert consensus on the optimal management of in hospital stroke occurring during or following CEA and to provide a practical treatment decision tree. METHODS: A four round Delphi consensus study was performed including 31 experts. The aim of the first round was to investigate whether the conceptual model indicating the traditional division between intra- and post-procedural stroke in six phases was appropriate, and to identify relevant clinical responses during these six phases. In rounds 2, 3, and 4, the aim was to obtain consensus on the optimal response to stroke in each predefined setting. Consensus was reached in rounds 1, 3, and 4 when ≥ 70% of experts agreed on the preferred clinical response and in round 2 based on a Likert scale when a median of 7 - 9 (most adequate response) was given, IQR ≤ 2. RESULTS: The experts agreed (> 80%) on the use of the conceptual model. Stroke laterality and type of anaesthesia were included in the treatment algorithm. Consensus was reached in 17 of 21 scenarios (> 80%). Perform diagnostics first for a contralateral stroke in any phase, and for an ipsilateral stroke during cross clamping, or apparent stroke after leaving the operation room. For an ipsilateral stroke during the wake up phase, no formal consensus was achieved, but 65% of the experts would perform diagnostics first. A CT brain combined with a CTA or duplex ultrasound of the carotid arteries should be performed. For an ipsilateral intra-operative stroke after flow restoration, the carotid artery should be re-explored immediately (75%). CONCLUSION: In patients having a stroke following carotid endarterectomy, expedited diagnostics should be performed initially in most phases. In patients who experience an ipsilateral intra-operative stroke following carotid clamp release, immediate re-exploration of the index carotid artery is recommended.
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Estenose das Carótidas/cirurgia , Endarterectomia das Carótidas , Complicações Intraoperatórias , Complicações Pós-Operatórias , Acidente Vascular Cerebral/etiologia , Algoritmos , Tomada de Decisão Clínica/métodos , Árvores de Decisões , Técnica Delphi , Humanos , Complicações Intraoperatórias/diagnóstico , Complicações Intraoperatórias/terapia , Complicações Pós-Operatórias/diagnóstico , Complicações Pós-Operatórias/terapia , Acidente Vascular Cerebral/diagnóstico , Acidente Vascular Cerebral/terapiaRESUMO
Background Associations between adiposity and atrial fibrillation (AF) might differ between sexes. We aimed to determine precise estimates of the risk of AF by body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) in men and women. Methods and Results Between 2008 and 2013, over 3.2 million adults attended commercial screening clinics. Participants completed health questionnaires and underwent physical examination along with cardiovascular investigations, including an ECG. We excluded those with cardiovascular and cardiac disease. We used multivariable logistic regression and determined joint associations of BMI and WC and the risk of AF in men and women by comparing likelihood ratio χ2 statistics. Among 2.1 million included participants 12 067 (0.6%) had AF. A positive association between BMI per 5 kg/m2 increment and AF was observed, with an odds ratio of 1.65 (95% CI, 1.57-1.73) for men and 1.36 (95% CI, 1.30-1.42) for women among those with a BMI above 20 kg/m2. We found a positive association between AF and WC per 10 cm increment, with an odds ratio of 1.47 (95% CI, 1.36-1.60) for men and 1.37 (95% CI, 1.26-1.49) for women. Improvement of likelihood ratio χ2 was equal after adding BMI and WC to models with all participants. In men, WC showed stronger improvement of likelihood ratio χ2 than BMI (30% versus 23%). In women, BMI showed stronger improvement of likelihood ratio χ2 than WC (23% versus 12%). Conclusions We found a positive association between BMI (above 20 kg/m2) and AF and between WC and AF in both men and women. BMI seems a more informative measure about risk of AF in women and WC seems more informative in men.
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Adiposidade/fisiologia , Fibrilação Atrial/etiologia , Índice de Massa Corporal , Obesidade/complicações , Medição de Risco/métodos , Circunferência da Cintura/fisiologia , Idoso , Fibrilação Atrial/epidemiologia , Fibrilação Atrial/fisiopatologia , Estudos Transversais , Feminino , Humanos , Incidência , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Obesidade/fisiopatologia , Estudos Retrospectivos , Fatores de Risco , Distribuição por Sexo , Fatores Sexuais , Reino Unido/epidemiologia , Estados Unidos/epidemiologiaRESUMO
OBJECTIVE: Current guidelines recommending rapid revascularisation of symptomatic carotid stenosis are largely based on data from clinical trials performed at a time when best medical therapy was potentially less effective than today. The risk of stroke and its predictors among patients with symptomatic carotid stenosis awaiting revascularisation in recent randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and in medical arms of earlier RCTs was assessed. METHODS: The pooled data of individual patients with symptomatic carotid stenosis randomised to stenting (CAS) or endarterectomy (CEA) in four recent RCTs, and of patients randomised to medical therapy in three earlier RCTs comparing CEA vs. medical therapy, were compared. The primary outcome event was any stroke occurring between randomisation and treatment by CAS or CEA, or within 120 days after randomisation. RESULTS: A total of 4 754 patients from recent trials and 1 227 from earlier trials were included. In recent trials, patients were randomised a median of 18 (IQR 7, 50) days after the qualifying event (QE). Twenty-three suffered a stroke while waiting for revascularisation (cumulative 120 day risk 1.97%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.75 - 3.17). Shorter time from QE until randomisation increased stroke risk after randomisation (χ2 = 6.58, p = .011). Sixty-one patients had a stroke within 120 days of randomisation in the medical arms of earlier trials (cumulative risk 5%, 95% CI 3.8 - 6.2). Stroke risk was lower in recent than earlier trials when adjusted for time between QE and randomisation, age, severity of QE, and degree of carotid stenosis (HR 0.47, 95% CI 0.25 - 0.88, p = .019). CONCLUSION: Patients with symptomatic carotid stenosis enrolled in recent large RCTs had a lower risk of stroke after randomisation than historical controls. The added benefit of carotid revascularisation to modern medical care needs to be revisited in future studies. Until then, adhering to current recommendations for early revascularisation of patients with symptomatic carotid stenosis considered to require invasive treatment is advisable.
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Estenose das Carótidas , Endarterectomia das Carótidas , AVC Isquêmico , Conduta do Tratamento Medicamentoso/estatística & dados numéricos , Intervenção Coronária Percutânea , Estenose das Carótidas/complicações , Estenose das Carótidas/diagnóstico , Estenose das Carótidas/fisiopatologia , Estenose das Carótidas/terapia , Revascularização Cerebral/tendências , Endarterectomia das Carótidas/métodos , Endarterectomia das Carótidas/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , AVC Isquêmico/diagnóstico , AVC Isquêmico/etiologia , Intervenção Coronária Percutânea/instrumentação , Intervenção Coronária Percutânea/métodos , Intervenção Coronária Percutânea/estatística & dados numéricos , Medição de Risco , Stents , Listas de EsperaRESUMO
AIMS: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with higher risk of stroke. While the prevalence of AF is low in the general population, risk prediction models might identify individuals for selective screening of AF. We aimed to systematically identify and compare the utility of established models to predict prevalent AF. METHODS AND RESULTS: Systematic search of PubMed and EMBASE for risk prediction models for AF. We adapted established risk prediction models and assessed their predictive performance using data from 2.5M individuals who attended vascular screening clinics in the USA and the UK and in the subset of 1.2M individuals with CHA2DS2-VASc ≥2. We assessed discrimination using area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves and agreement between observed and predicted cases using calibration plots. After screening 6959 studies, 14 risk prediction models were identified. In our cohort, 10 464 (0.41%) participants had AF. For discrimination, six prediction model had AUROC curves of 0.70 or above in all individuals and those with CHA2DS2-VASc ≥2. In these models, calibration plots showed very good concordance between predicted and observed risks of AF. The two models with the highest observed prevalence in the highest decile of predicted risk, CHARGE-AF and MHS, showed an observed prevalence of AF of 1.6% with a number needed to screen of 63. Selective screening of the 10% highest risk identified 39% of cases with AF. CONCLUSION: Prediction models can reliably identify individuals at high risk of AF. The best performing models showed an almost fourfold higher prevalence of AF by selective screening of individuals in the highest decile of risk compared with systematic screening of all cases. REGISTRATION: This systematic review was registered (PROSPERO CRD42019123847).
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Fibrilação Atrial , Acidente Vascular Cerebral , Fibrilação Atrial/diagnóstico , Fibrilação Atrial/epidemiologia , Estudos de Coortes , Humanos , Valor Preditivo dos Testes , Curva ROC , Medição de Risco , Fatores de Risco , Acidente Vascular Cerebral/diagnóstico , Acidente Vascular Cerebral/epidemiologiaRESUMO
INTRODUCTION: Posterior cerebral circulation strokes are most commonly caused by posterior vasculature in situ thrombosis, cardiac emboli, or arterial dissection. However, the foetal origin of the posterior communicating artery is an anatomical variant of the cerebral circulation that results in communication between the internal carotid and posterior cerebral circulation. Therefore, rarely this can result in posterior cerebral territory infarction from internal carotid artery thrombo-embolism. This is the report of a case in which a patient suffered posterior circulation stroke secondary to this anatomical variation of the circle of Willis. REPORT: A 71 year old male patient was admitted to the stroke team with seizures, headache, and confusion. Examination revealed a left sided homonymous hemianopia. Diffusion weighted magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of the brain 36 hours into his admission revealed an acute right posterior circulation infarct with extensive haemorrhagic transformation. Duplex ultrasound three days later revealed a heavily calcified right internal carotid artery mixed echogenicity plaque with 80%-90% stenosis. Subsequent computed tomography angiography showed a large right foetal variant posterior communicating artery. Following improvement in functional status, the patient underwent uneventful carotid endarterectomy to reduce risk of future stroke. DISCUSSION: In patients presenting with posterior circulation infarction, clinicians should consider embolism from an atheromatous internal carotid artery via the variant foetal origin of posterior communicating artery. If detected, consideration should be given to undertaking carotid endarterectomy to reduce future stroke risk if no other source is detected.
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BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: CREST (Carotid Revascularization Endarterectomy Versus Stenting Trial) reported a higher periprocedural risk for any stroke, death, or myocardial infarction for women randomized to carotid artery stenting (CAS) compared with women randomized to carotid endarterectomy (CEA). No difference in risk by treatment was detected for women relative to men in the 4-year primary outcome. We aimed to conduct a pooled analysis among symptomatic patients in large randomized trials to provide more precise estimates of sex differences in the CAS-to-CEA risk for any stroke or death during the 120-day periprocedural period and ipsilateral stroke thereafter. METHODS: Data from the Carotid Stenosis Trialists' Collaboration included outcomes from symptomatic patients in EVA-3S (Endarterectomy Versus Angioplasty in Patients With Symptomatic Severe Carotid Stenosis), SPACE (Stent-Protected Angioplasty Versus Carotid Endarterectomy in Symptomatic Patients), ICSS (International Carotid Stenting Study), and CREST. The primary outcome was any stroke or death within 120 days after randomization and ipsilateral stroke thereafter. Event rates and relative risks were estimated using Poisson regression; effect modification by sex was assessed with a sex-by-treatment-by-trial interaction term, with significant interaction defined a priori as P≤0.10. RESULTS: Over a median 2.7 years of follow-up, 433 outcomes occurred in 3317 men and 1437 women. The CAS-to-CEA relative risk of the primary outcome was significantly lower for women compared with men in 1 trial, nominally lower in another, and nominally higher in the other two. The sex-by-treatment-by-trial interaction term was significant (P=0.065), indicating heterogeneity among trials. Contributors to this heterogeneity are primarily differences in periprocedural period. When the trials are nevertheless pooled, there were no significant sex differences in risk in any follow-up period. CONCLUSIONS: There were significant differences between trials in the magnitude of sex differences in treatment effect (CAS-to-CEA relative risk), indicating pooling data from these trials to estimate sex differences might not be valid. Whether sex is acting as an effect modifier of the CAS-to-CEA treatment effect in symptomatic patients remains uncertain. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT00190398 (EVA-3S) and NCT00004732 (CREST). URL: https://www.isrctn.com; Unique identifier: ISRCTN57874028 (SPACE) and ISRCTN25337470 (ICSS).
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Angioplastia/métodos , Estenose das Carótidas/cirurgia , Endarterectomia das Carótidas/métodos , Caracteres Sexuais , Resultado do Tratamento , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Angioplastia/instrumentação , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Ensaios Clínicos Controlados Aleatórios como Assunto , StentsRESUMO
OBJECTIVE: Asymptomatic carotid stenosis (ACS) is associated with an increased risk of ischaemic stroke and myocardial infarction. Risk scores have been developed to detect individuals at high risk of ACS, thereby enabling targeted screening, but previous external validation showed scope for refinement of prediction by adding additional predictors. The aim of this study was to develop a novel risk score in a large contemporary screened population. METHODS: A prediction model was developed for moderate (≥50%) and severe (≥70%) ACS using data from 596 469 individuals who attended screening clinics. Variables that predicted the presence of ≥50% and ≥70% ACS independently were determined using multivariable logistic regression. Internal validation was performed using bootstrapping techniques. Discrimination was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) and agreement between predicted and observed cases using calibration plots. RESULTS: Predictors of ≥50% and ≥70% ACS were age, sex, current smoking, diabetes mellitus, prior stroke/transient ischaemic attack, coronary artery disease, peripheral arterial disease, blood pressure, and blood lipids. Models discriminated between participants with and without ACS reliably, with an AUROC of 0.78 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.77-0.78) for ≥ 50% ACS and 0.82 (95% CI 0.81-0.82) for ≥ 70% ACS. The number needed to screen in the highest decile of predicted risk to detect one case with ≥50% ACS was 13 and that of ≥70% ACS was 58. Targeted screening of the highest decile identified 41% of cases with ≥50% ACS and 51% with ≥70% ACS. CONCLUSION: The novel risk model predicted the prevalence of ACS reliably and performed better than previous models. Targeted screening among the highest decile of predicted risk identified around 40% of all cases with ≥50% ACS. Initiation or intensification of cardiovascular risk management in detected cases might help to reduce both carotid related ischaemic strokes and myocardial infarctions.