Chronogram: an R package for data curation and analysis of infection and vaccination cohort studies.

Motivation: Observational cohort studies that track vaccine and infection responses offer real-world data to inform pandemic policy. Translating biological hypotheses, such as whether different patterns of accumulated antigenic exposures confer differing antibody responses, into analysis code can be onerous, particularly when source data is dis-aggregated. Results: The R package chronogram introduces the class chronogram, where metadata is seamlessly aggregated with sparse infection episode, clinical and laboratory data. Each experimental modality is added sequentially, allowing the incorporation of new data, such as specialized time-consuming research assays, or their downstream analyses. Source data can be any rectangular data format, including database tables (such as structured query language databases). This supports annotations that aggregate data types/sources, for example, combining symptoms, molecular testing, and sequencing of one or more infectious episodes in a pathogen-agnostic manner. Chronogram arranges observational data to allow the translation of biological hypotheses into their corresponding code via a shared vocabulary. Availability and implementation: Chronogram is implemented R and available under an MIT licence at: https://www.github.com/FrancisCrickInstitute/chronogram; a user manual is available at: https://franciscrickinstitute.github.io/chronogram/.

Real-time estimation of immunological responses against emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants in the UK: a mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants and COVID-19 vaccination have resulted in complex exposure histories. Rapid assessment of the effects of these exposures on neutralising antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 infection is crucial for informing vaccine strategy and epidemic management. We aimed to investigate heterogeneity in individual-level and population-level antibody kinetics to emerging variants by previous SARS-CoV-2 exposure history, to examine implications for real-time estimation, and to examine the effects of vaccine-campaign timing. METHODS: Our Bayesian hierarchical model of antibody kinetics estimated neutralising-antibody trajectories against a panel of SARS-CoV-2 variants quantified with a live virus microneutralisation assay and informed by individual-level COVID-19 vaccination and SARS-CoV-2 infection histories. Antibody titre trajectories were modelled with a piecewise linear function that depended on the key biological quantities of an initial titre value, time the peak titre is reached, set-point time, and corresponding rates of increase and decrease for gradients between two timing parameters. All process parameters were estimated at both the individual level and the population level. We analysed data from participants in the University College London Hospitals-Francis Crick Institute Legacy study cohort (NCT04750356) who underwent surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 either through asymptomatic mandatory occupational health screening once per week between April 1, 2020, and May 31, 2022, or symptom-based testing between April 1, 2020, and Feb 1, 2023. People included in the Legacy study were either Crick employees or health-care workers at three London hospitals, older than 18 years, and gave written informed consent. Legacy excluded people who were unable or unwilling to give informed consent and those not employed by a qualifying institution. We segmented data to include vaccination events occurring up to 150 days before the emergence of three variants of concern: delta, BA.2, and XBB 1.5. We split the data for each wave into two categories: real-time and retrospective. The real-time dataset contained neutralising-antibody titres collected up to the date of emergence in each wave; the retrospective dataset contained all samples until the next SARS-CoV-2 exposure of each individual, whether vaccination or infection. FINDINGS: We included data from 335 participants in the delta wave analysis, 223 (67%) of whom were female and 112 (33%) of whom were male (median age 40 years, IQR 22-58); data from 385 participants in the BA.2 wave analysis, 271 (70%) of whom were female and 114 (30%) of whom were male (41 years, 22-60); and data from 248 participants in the XBB 1.5 wave analysis, 191 (77%) of whom were female, 56 (23%) of whom were male, and one (<1%) of whom preferred not to say (40 years, 21-59). Overall, we included 968 exposures (vaccinations) across 1895 serum samples in the model. For the delta wave, we estimated peak titre values as 490·0 IC50 (95% credible interval 224·3-1515·9) for people with no previous infection and as 702·4 IC50 (300·8-2322·7) for people with a previous infection before omicron; the delta wave did not include people with a previous omicron infection. For the BA.2 wave, we estimated peak titre values as 858·1 IC50 (689·8-1363·2) for people with no previous infection, 1020·7 IC50 (725·9-1722·6) for people with a previous infection before omicron, and 1422·0 IC50 (679·2-3027·3) for people with a previous omicron infection. For the XBB 1.5 wave, we estimated peak titre values as 703·2 IC50 (415·0-3197·8) for people with no previous infection, 1215·9 IC50 (511·6-7338·7) for people with a previous infection before omicron, and 1556·3 IC50 (757·2-7907·9) for people with a previous omicron infection. INTERPRETATION: Our study shows the feasibility of real-time estimation of antibody kinetics before SARS-CoV-2 variant emergence. This estimation is valuable for understanding how specific combinations of SARS-CoV-2 exposures influence antibody kinetics and for examining how COVID-19 vaccination-campaign timing could affect population-level immunity to emerging variants. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, National Institute for Health Research University College London Hospitals Biomedical Research Centre, UK Research and Innovation, UK Medical Research Council, Francis Crick Institute, and Genotype-to-Phenotype National Virology Consortium.

Immunogenicity of third dose COVID-19 vaccine strategies in patients who are immunocompromised with suboptimal immunity following two doses (OCTAVE-DUO): an open-label, multicentre, randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial.

BACKGROUND: The humoral and T-cell responses to booster COVID-19 vaccine types in multidisease immunocompromised individuals who do not generate adequate antibody responses to two COVID-19 vaccine doses, is not fully understood. The OCTAVE DUO trial aimed to determine the value of third vaccinations in a wide range of patients with primary and secondary immunodeficiencies. METHODS: OCTAVE-DUO was a prospective, open-label, multicentre, randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial investigating humoral and T-cell responses in patients who are immunocompromised following a third vaccine dose with BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273, and of NVX-CoV2373 for those with lymphoid malignancies. We recruited patients who were immunocompromised from 11 UK hospitals, aged at least 18 years, with previous sub-optimal responses to two doses of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. Participants were randomly assigned 1:1 (1:1:1 for those with lymphoid malignancies), stratified by disease, previous vaccination type, and anti-spike antibody response following two doses. Individuals with lived experience of immune susceptibility were involved in the study design and implementation. The primary outcome was vaccine-specific immunity defined by anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike antibodies (Roche Diagnostics UK and Ireland, Burgess Hill, UK) and T-cell responses (Oxford Immunotec, Abingdon, UK) before and 21 days after the third vaccine dose analysed by a modified intention-to-treat analysis. The trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN 15354495, and the EU Clinical Trials Register, EudraCT 2021-003632-87, and is complete. FINDINGS: Between Aug 4, 2021 and Mar 31, 2022, 804 participants across nine disease cohorts were randomly assigned to receive BNT162b2 (n=377), mRNA-1273 (n=374), or NVX-CoV2373 (n=53). 356 (45%) of 789 participants were women, 433 (55%) were men, and 659 (85%) of 775 were White. Anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike antibodies measured 21 days after the third vaccine dose were significantly higher than baseline pre-third dose titres in the modified intention-to-treat analysis (median 1384 arbitrary units [AU]/mL [IQR 4·3-7990·0] compared with median 11·5 AU/mL [0·4-63·1]; p<0·001). Of participants who were baseline low responders, 380 (90%) of 423 increased their antibody concentrations to more than 400 AU/mL. Conversely, 166 (54%) of 308 baseline non-responders had no response after the third dose. Detectable T-cell responses following the third vaccine dose were seen in 494 (80%) of 616 participants. There were 24 serious adverse events (BNT612b2 eight [33%] of 24, mRNA-1273 12 [50%], NVX-CoV2373 four [17%]), two (8%) of which were categorised as vaccine-related. There were seven deaths (1%) during the trial, none of which were vaccine-related. INTERPRETATION: A third vaccine dose improved the serological and T-cell response in the majority of patients who are immunocompromised. Individuals with chronic renal disease, lymphoid malignancy, on B-cell targeted therapies, or with no serological response after two vaccine doses are at higher risk of poor response to a third vaccine dose. FUNDING: Medical Research Council, Blood Cancer UK.

COVID-19 in non-hospitalised adults caused by either SARS-CoV-2 sub-variants Omicron BA.1, BA.2, BA.4/5 or Delta associates with similar illness duration, symptom severity and viral kinetics, irrespective of vaccination history.

BACKGROUND: SARS-CoV-2 variant Omicron rapidly evolved over 2022, causing three waves of infection due to sub-variants BA.1, BA.2 and BA.4/5. We sought to characterise symptoms and viral loads over the course of COVID-19 infection with these sub-variants in otherwise-healthy, vaccinated, non-hospitalised adults, and compared data to infections with the preceding Delta variant of concern (VOC). METHODS: In a prospective, observational cohort study, healthy vaccinated UK adults who reported a positive polymerase chain reaction (PCR) or lateral flow test, self-swabbed on alternate weekdays until day 10. We compared participant-reported symptoms and viral load trajectories between infections caused by VOCs Delta and Omicron (sub-variants BA.1, BA.2 or BA.4/5), and tested for relationships between vaccine dose, symptoms and PCR cycle threshold (Ct) as a proxy for viral load using Chi-squared (χ2) and Wilcoxon tests. RESULTS: 563 infection episodes were reported among 491 participants. Across infection episodes, there was little variation in symptom burden (4 [IQR 3-5] symptoms) and duration (8 [IQR 6-11] days). Whilst symptom profiles differed among infections caused by Delta compared to Omicron sub-variants, symptom profiles were similar between Omicron sub-variants. Anosmia was reported more frequently in Delta infections after 2 doses compared with Omicron sub-variant infections after 3 doses, for example: 42% (25/60) of participants with Delta infection compared to 9% (6/67) with Omicron BA.4/5 (χ2 P < 0.001; OR 7.3 [95% CI 2.7-19.4]). Fever was less common with Delta (20/60 participants; 33%) than Omicron BA.4/5 (39/67; 58%; χ2 P = 0.008; OR 0.4 [CI 0.2-0.7]). Amongst infections with an Omicron sub-variants, symptoms of coryza, fatigue, cough and myalgia predominated. Viral load trajectories and peaks did not differ between Delta, and Omicron, irrespective of symptom severity (including asymptomatic participants), VOC or vaccination status. PCR Ct values were negatively associated with time since vaccination in participants infected with BA.1 (ß = -0.05 (CI -0.10-0.01); P = 0.031); however, this trend was not observed in BA.2 or BA.4/5 infections. CONCLUSION: Our study emphasises both the changing symptom profile of COVID-19 infections in the Omicron era, and ongoing transmission risk of Omicron sub-variants in vaccinated adults. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT04750356.

Combined analyses of within-host SARS-CoV-2 viral kinetics and information on past exposures to the virus in a human cohort identifies intrinsic differences of Omicron and Delta variants.

The emergence of successive Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants of concern (VOCs) during 2020 to 2022, each exhibiting increased epidemic growth relative to earlier circulating variants, has created a need to understand the drivers of such growth. However, both pathogen biology and changing host characteristics-such as varying levels of immunity-can combine to influence replication and transmission of SARS-CoV-2 within and between hosts. Disentangling the role of variant and host in individual-level viral shedding of VOCs is essential to inform Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) planning and response and interpret past epidemic trends. Using data from a prospective observational cohort study of healthy adult volunteers undergoing weekly occupational health PCR screening, we developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to reconstruct individual-level viral kinetics and estimate how different factors shaped viral dynamics, measured by PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values over time. Jointly accounting for both interindividual variation in Ct values and complex host characteristics-such as vaccination status, exposure history, and age-we found that age and number of prior exposures had a strong influence on peak viral replication. Older individuals and those who had at least 5 prior antigen exposures to vaccination and/or infection typically had much lower levels of shedding. Moreover, we found evidence of a correlation between the speed of early shedding and duration of incubation period when comparing different VOCs and age groups. Our findings illustrate the value of linking information on participant characteristics, symptom profile and infecting variant with prospective PCR sampling, and the importance of accounting for increasingly complex population exposure landscapes when analysing the viral kinetics of VOCs. Trial Registration: The Legacy study is a prospective observational cohort study of healthy adult volunteers undergoing weekly occupational health PCR screening for SARS-CoV-2 at University College London Hospitals or at the Francis Crick Institute (NCT04750356) (22,23). The Legacy study was approved by London Camden and Kings Cross Health Research Authority Research and Ethics committee (IRAS number 286469). The Legacy study was approved by London Camden and Kings Cross Health Research Authority Research and Ethics committee (IRAS number 286469) and is sponsored by University College London Hospitals. Written consent was given by all participants.

Comparative effectiveness of sotrovimab and molnupiravir for preventing severe COVID-19 outcomes in patients on kidney replacement therapy: observational study using the OpenSAFELY-UKRR and SRR databases.

Background: Due to limited inclusion of patients on kidney replacement therapy (KRT) in clinical trials, the effectiveness of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) therapies in this population remains unclear. We sought to address this by comparing the effectiveness of sotrovimab against molnupiravir, two commonly used treatments for non-hospitalised KRT patients with COVID-19 in the UK. Methods: With the approval of National Health Service England, we used routine clinical data from 24 million patients in England within the OpenSAFELY-TPP platform linked to the UK Renal Registry (UKRR) to identify patients on KRT. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) of sotrovimab versus molnupiravir with regards to COVID-19-related hospitalisations or deaths in the subsequent 28 days. We also conducted a complementary analysis using data from the Scottish Renal Registry (SRR). Results: Among the 2367 kidney patients treated with sotrovimab (n = 1852) or molnupiravir (n = 515) between 16 December 2021 and 1 August 2022 in England, 38 cases (1.6%) of COVID-19-related hospitalisations/deaths were observed. Sotrovimab was associated with substantially lower outcome risk than molnupiravir {adjusted HR 0.35 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.17-0.71]; P = .004}, with results remaining robust in multiple sensitivity analyses. In the SRR cohort, sotrovimab showed a trend toward lower outcome risk than molnupiravir [HR 0.39 (95% CI 0.13-1.21); P = .106]. In both datasets, sotrovimab had no evidence of an association with other hospitalisation/death compared with molnupiravir (HRs ranged from 0.73 to 1.29; P > .05). Conclusions: In routine care of non-hospitalised patients with COVID-19 on KRT, sotrovimab was associated with a lower risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes compared with molnupiravir during Omicron waves.

CD4+ and CD8+ T cells and antibodies are associated with protection against Delta vaccine breakthrough infection: a nested case-control study within the PITCH study.

IMPORTANCE: Defining correlates of protection against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccine breakthrough infection informs vaccine policy for booster doses and future vaccine designs. Existing studies demonstrate humoral correlates of protection, but the role of T cells in protection is still unclear. In this study, we explore antibody and T cell immune responses associated with protection against Delta variant vaccine breakthrough infection in a well-characterized cohort of UK Healthcare Workers (HCWs). We demonstrate evidence to support a role for CD4+ and CD8+ T cells as well as antibodies against Delta vaccine breakthrough infection. In addition, our results suggest a potential role for cross-reactive T cells in vaccine breakthrough.

Antibody correlates of protection against Delta infection after vaccination: A nested case-control within the UK-based SIREN study.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate serological correlates of protection against SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617.2 (Delta) infection after two vaccinations. METHODS: We performed a case-control study, where cases were Delta infections after the second vaccine dose and controls were vaccinated, never infected participants, matched by age, gender and region. Sera were tested for anti-SARS-CoV-2 Spike antibody levels (anti-S) and neutralising antibody titres (nAbT), using live virus microneutralisation against Ancestral, Delta and Omicron (BA.1, B.1.1.529). We modelled the decay of anti-S and nAbT for both groups, inferring levels at matched calendar times since the second vaccination. We assessed differences in inferred antibody titres between groups and used conditional logistic regression to explore the relationship between titres and odds of infection. RESULTS: In total, 130 sequence-confirmed Delta cases and 318 controls were included. Anti-S and Ancestral nAbT decayed similarly between groups, but faster in cases for Delta nAbT (p = 0.02) and Omicron nAbT (p = 0.002). At seven days before infection, controls had higher anti-S levels (p < 0.0001) and nAbT (p < 0.0001; all variants) at matched calendar time. A two-fold increase in anti-S levels was associated with a 29% ([95% CI 14-42%]; p = 0.001) reduction in odds of Delta infection. Delta nAbT>40 were associated with reduced odds of Delta infection (89%, [69-96%]; p < 0.0001), with additional benefits for titres >100 (p = 0.009) and >400 (p = 0.007). CONCLUSIONS: We have identified correlates of protection against SARS-CoV-2 Delta, with potential implications for vaccine deployment, development, and public health response.

Comparative effectiveness of two- and three-dose COVID-19 vaccination schedules involving AZD1222 and BNT162b2 in people with kidney disease: a linked OpenSAFELY and UK Renal Registry cohort study.

Background: Kidney disease is a key risk factor for COVID-19-related mortality and suboptimal vaccine response. Optimising vaccination strategies is essential to reduce the disease burden in this vulnerable population. We therefore compared the effectiveness of two- and three-dose schedules involving AZD1222 (AZ; ChAdOx1-S) and BNT162b2 (BNT) among people with kidney disease in England. Methods: With the approval of NHS England, we performed a retrospective cohort study among people with moderate-to-severe kidney disease. Using linked primary care and UK Renal Registry records in the OpenSAFELY-TPP platform, we identified adults with stage 3-5 chronic kidney disease, dialysis recipients, and kidney transplant recipients. We used Cox proportional hazards models to compare COVID-19-related outcomes and non-COVID-19 death after two-dose (AZ-AZ vs BNT-BNT) and three-dose (AZ-AZ-BNT vs BNT-BNT-BNT) schedules. Findings: After two doses, incidence during the Delta wave was higher in AZ-AZ (n = 257,580) than BNT-BNT recipients (n = 169,205; adjusted hazard ratios [95% CIs] 1.43 [1.37-1.50], 1.59 [1.43-1.77], 1.44 [1.12-1.85], and 1.09 [1.02-1.17] for SARS-CoV-2 infection, COVID-19-related hospitalisation, COVID-19-related death, and non-COVID-19 death, respectively). Findings were consistent across disease subgroups, including dialysis and transplant recipients. After three doses, there was little evidence of differences between AZ-AZ-BNT (n = 220,330) and BNT-BNT-BNT recipients (n = 157,065) for any outcome during a period of Omicron dominance. Interpretation: Among individuals with moderate-to-severe kidney disease, two doses of BNT conferred stronger protection than AZ against SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe disease. A subsequent BNT dose levelled the playing field, emphasising the value of heterologous RNA doses in vulnerable populations. Funding: National Core Studies, Wellcome Trust, MRC, and Health Data Research UK.

Commercial Immunoglobulin Products Contain Neutralizing Antibodies Against Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Spike Protein.

BACKGROUND: Patients with antibody deficiency respond poorly to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination and are at risk of severe or prolonged infection. They are given long-term immunoglobulin replacement therapy (IRT) prepared from healthy donor plasma to confer passive immunity against infection. Following widespread COVID-19 vaccination alongside natural exposure, we hypothesized that immunoglobulin preparations will now contain neutralizing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spike antibodies, which confer protection against COVID-19 disease and may help to treat chronic infection. METHODS: We evaluated anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike antibody in a cohort of patients before and after immunoglobulin infusion. Neutralizing capacity of patient samples and immunoglobulin products was assessed using in vitro pseudovirus and live-virus neutralization assays, the latter investigating multiple batches against current circulating Omicron variants. We describe the clinical course of 9 patients started on IRT during treatment of COVID-19. RESULTS: In 35 individuals with antibody deficiency established on IRT, median anti-spike antibody titer increased from 2123 to 10 600 U/mL postinfusion, with corresponding increase in pseudovirus neutralization titers to levels comparable to healthy donors. Testing immunoglobulin products directly in the live-virus assay confirmed neutralization, including of BQ1.1 and XBB variants, but with variation between immunoglobulin products and batches.Initiation of IRT alongside remdesivir in patients with antibody deficiency and prolonged COVID-19 infection (median 189 days, maximum >900 days with an ancestral viral strain) resulted in clearance of SARS-CoV-2 at a median of 20 days. CONCLUSIONS: Immunoglobulin preparations now contain neutralizing anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies that are transmitted to patients and help to treat COVID-19 in individuals with failure of humoral immunity.

Within-host SARS-CoV-2 viral kinetics informed by complex life course exposures reveals different intrinsic properties of Omicron and Delta variants.

The emergence of successive SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOC) during 2020-22, each exhibiting increased epidemic growth relative to earlier circulating variants, has created a need to understand the drivers of such growth. However, both pathogen biology and changing host characteristics - such as varying levels of immunity - can combine to influence replication and transmission of SARS-CoV-2 within and between hosts. Disentangling the role of variant and host in individual-level viral shedding of VOCs is essential to inform COVID-19 planning and response, and interpret past epidemic trends. Using data from a prospective observational cohort study of healthy adult volunteers undergoing weekly occupational health PCR screening, we developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to reconstruct individual-level viral kinetics and estimate how different factors shaped viral dynamics, measured by PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values over time. Jointly accounting for both inter-individual variation in Ct values and complex host characteristics - such as vaccination status, exposure history and age - we found that age and number of prior exposures had a strong influence on peak viral replication. Older individuals and those who had at least five prior antigen exposures to vaccination and/or infection typically had much lower levels of shedding. Moreover, we found evidence of a correlation between the speed of early shedding and duration of incubation period when comparing different VOCs and age groups. Our findings illustrate the value of linking information on participant characteristics, symptom profile and infecting variant with prospective PCR sampling, and the importance of accounting for increasingly complex population exposure landscapes when analysing the viral kinetics of VOCs.

Spatial dysregulation of T follicular helper cells impairs vaccine responses in aging.

The magnitude and quality of the germinal center (GC) response decline with age, resulting in poor vaccine-induced immunity in older individuals. A functional GC requires the co-ordination of multiple cell types across time and space, in particular across its two functionally distinct compartments: the light and dark zones. In aged mice, there is CXCR4-mediated mislocalization of T follicular helper (TFH) cells to the dark zone and a compressed network of follicular dendritic cells (FDCs) in the light zone. Here we show that TFH cell localization is critical for the quality of the antibody response and for the expansion of the FDC network upon immunization. The smaller GC and compressed FDC network in aged mice were corrected by provision of TFH cells that colocalize with FDCs using CXCR5. This demonstrates that the age-dependent defects in the GC response are reversible and shows that TFH cells support stromal cell responses to vaccines.

Sotrovimab restores neutralization against current Omicron subvariants in patients with blood cancer.

Wu et al. report that patients with hematologic malignancies have reduced immunity against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron subvariants and Sotrovimab retains neutralizing capacity against all tested Omicron subvariants.

Strong peak immunogenicity but rapid antibody waning following third vaccine dose in older residents of care homes.

Third-dose coronavirus disease 2019 vaccines are being deployed widely but their efficacy has not been assessed adequately in vulnerable older people who exhibit suboptimal responses after primary vaccination series. This observational study, which was carried out by the VIVALDI study based in England, looked at spike-specific immune responses in 341 staff and residents in long-term care facilities who received an mRNA vaccine following dual primary series vaccination with BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1. Third-dose vaccination strongly increased antibody responses with preferential relative enhancement in older people and was required to elicit neutralization of Omicron. Cellular immune responses were also enhanced with strong cross-reactive recognition of Omicron. However, antibody titers fell 21-78% within 100 d after vaccine and 27% of participants developed a breakthrough Omicron infection. These findings reveal strong immunogenicity of a third vaccine in one of the most vulnerable population groups and endorse an approach for widespread delivery across this population. Ongoing assessment will be required to determine the stability of immune protection.