Convergence of HIV and non-communicable disease epidemics: geospatial mapping of the unmet health needs in an HIV hyperendemic community in South Africa.

INTRODUCTION: As people living with HIV (PLHIV) are experiencing longer survival, the co-occurrence of HIV and non-communicable diseases has become a public health priority. In response to this emerging challenge, we aimed to characterise the spatial structure of convergence of chronic health conditions in an HIV hyperendemic community in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, we used data from a comprehensive population-based disease survey conducted in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, which collected data on HIV, diabetes and hypertension. We implemented a novel health needs scale to categorise participants as: diagnosed and well-controlled (Needs Score 1), diagnosed and suboptimally controlled (Score 2), diagnosed but not engaged in care (Score 3) or undiagnosed and uncontrolled (Score 4). Scores 2-4 were indicative of unmet health needs. We explored the geospatial structure of unmet health needs using different spatial clustering methods. RESULTS: The analytical sample comprised 18 041 individuals. We observed a similar spatial structure for HIV among those with combined needs Score 2-3 (diagnosed but uncontrolled) and Score 4 (undiagnosed and uncontrolled), with most PLHIV with unmet needs clustered in the southern urban and peri-urban areas. Conversely, a high prevalence of need Scores 2 and 3 for diabetes and hypertension was mostly distributed in the more rural central and northern part of the surveillance area. A high prevalence of need Score 4 for diabetes and hypertension was mostly distributed in the rural southern part of the surveillance area. Multivariate clustering analysis revealed a significant overlap of all three diseases in individuals with undiagnosed and uncontrolled diseases (unmet needs Score 4) in the southern part of the catchment area. CONCLUSIONS: In an HIV hyperendemic community in South Africa, areas with the highest needs for PLHIV with undiagnosed and uncontrolled disease are also areas with the highest burden of unmet needs for other chronic health conditions, such as diabetes and hypertension. Our study has revealed remarkable differences in the distribution of health needs across the rural to urban continuum even within this relatively small study site. The identification and prioritisation of geographically clustered vulnerable communities with unmet health needs for both HIV and non-communicable diseases provide a basis for policy and implementation strategies to target communities with the highest health needs.

Identifying sex-specific anthropometric measures and thresholds for dysglycemia screening in an HIV-endemic rural South African population.

Valid screening and diagnostic algorithms are needed to achieve 2030 targets proposed by the WHO's Global Diabetes Compact. We explored anthropometric thresholds to optimally screen and refer individuals for diabetes testing in rural South Africa. We evaluated screening thresholds for waist circumference (WC), body mass index (BMI), and waist-hip ratio (WHR) to detect dysglycemia based on a glycated hemoglobin (HbA1C) ≥6.5% among adults in a population-based study in South Africa using weighted, non-parametric ROC regression analyses. We then assessed the diagnostic validity of traditional obesity thresholds, explored optimal thresholds for this population, and fit models stratified by sex, age, and HIV status. The prevalence of dysglycemia in the total study population (n = 17,846) was 7.7%. WC had greater discriminatory capacity than WHR to detect dysglycemia in men (p-value<0.001) and women (p<0.001). WC had greater discriminatory capacity than BMI to detect dysglycemia in women (p<0.001). However, BMI and WC performed similarly for men (p = 0.589). Whereas traditional WC thresholds for women (>81cm) performed well (sensitivity 91%, positive predictive value [PPV] 14.9%), substantially lower thresholds were needed to achieve acceptable sensitivity and PPV among men (traditional >94cm, derived >79.5cm). WC outperforms BMI as an anthropometric screening measure for dysglycemia in rural South Africa. Whereas WC guideline thresholds are appropriate for women, male-derived WC cutoffs performed better at lower thresholds. In this rural South African population, thresholds that maximize specificity and PPV for efficient resource allocation may be preferred.

Association between prior tuberculosis disease and dysglycemia within an HIV-endemic, rural South African population.

OBJECTIVE: Tuberculosis (TB) may predispose individuals to the development of diabetes. Such a relationship could have an outsized impact in high-prevalence TB settings. However, few studies have explored this relationship in populations heavily burdened by diabetes and TB. METHODS: We analyzed data from a community-based population cohort that enrolled adults in rural South Africa. Individuals were considered to have prior TB if they self-reported a history of TB treatment. We fitted sex-specific logistic regression models, adjusted for potential clinical and demographic confounders, to estimate relationships between dysglycemia (HBA1c ≥6.5%) and prior TB. Propensity score-matched cohorts accounted for the differential age distributions between comparator groups. We examined the interactions between sex, prior TB, and HIV status. RESULTS: In the analytic cohort (n = 17,593), the prevalence of prior TB was 13.8% among men and 10.7% among women. Dysglycemia was found in 9.1% of the population, and HIV prevalence was 34.0%. We found no difference in dysglycemia prevalence by prior TB (men OR 0.96, 95% CI 0.60-1.56: women OR 1.05, 95% CI 0.79-1.39). However, there was a qualitative interaction by HIV serostatus, such that among men without HIV, those with a history of TB had a greater prevalence of dysglycemia than those without prior TB (10.1% vs. 4.6%, p = 0.0077). An inverse relationship was observed among men living with HIV (prior TB 3.3% vs. no TB 7.3%, p = 0.0073). CONCLUSIONS: Treated TB disease was not associated with dysglycemia in an HIV-endemic, rural South African population. However, we found a significant interaction between prior TB and HIV status among men, suggesting distinct pathophysiological mechanisms between the two infections that may impact glucose metabolism. Longitudinal studies are needed to better establish a causal effect and underlying mechanisms related to resolved TB, HIV, and diabetes.

Association between HIV and Prevalent Hypertension and Diabetes Mellitus in South Africa: Analysis of a Nationally Representative Cross-Sectional Survey.

OBJECTIVES: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden is increasing among persons living with HIV (PLWH) in sub-Saharan Africa. It is unclear whether this reflects absolute increase in HIV-related CVD risk or unmasking by improved survival. Therefore, we examined whether HIV is associated with adverse cardiometabolic profiles among South African adults. METHODS: We analyzed a nationally representative dataset (n=6420), estimating the weighted prevalence of hypertension, diabetes, and 10-year predicted risk of incident fatal/nonfatal CVD (if aged ≥40 years). Associations between HIV and cardiometabolic indices were assessed using log-binomial regression models adjusted for sociodemographic factors. RESULTS: HIV population prevalence was 18.9%, with a median age of 36 years. Hypertension (44.2% vs 45.4%), diabetes (18.6% vs 20.4%), and overweight/obesity (body mass index ≥25 kg/m2: 54.9% vs 52.0%) prevalence did not substantially differ by HIV status, although PLWH had a lower 10-year predicted CVD risk (median: 5.1% vs 13.5%). In adjusted models, females who are HIV-negative had a 5 mm Hg higher median systolic blood pressure (128 vs 123 mmHg) than female PLWH. CONCLUSIONS: PLWH in South Africa have better cardiometabolic disease profiles than the general population, and social determinants, rather than HIV, may have a greater influence on cardiometabolic risk. Designating PLWH a CVD high-risk group in South Africa is likely unwarranted.

Modulating Cell Fate as a Therapeutic Strategy.

In injured tissues, regeneration is often associated with cell fate plasticity, in that cells deviate from their normal lineage paths. It is becoming increasingly clear that this plasticity often creates alternative strategies to restore damaged or lost cells. Alternatively, cell fate plasticity is also part and parcel of pathologic tissue transformations that accompany disease. In this Perspective, we summarize a few illustrative examples of physiologic and aberrant cellular plasticity. Then, we speculate on how one could enhance endogenous plasticity to promote regeneration and reverse pathologic plasticity, perhaps inspiring interest in a new class of therapies targeting cell fate modulation.