The compound event that triggered the destructive fires of October 2017 in Portugal.

Portugal is regularly affected by destructive wildfires that have severe social, economic, and ecological impacts. The total burnt area in 2017 (∼540,000 ha) marked the all-time record value since 1980 with a tragic toll of 114 fatalities that occurred in June and October events. The local insurance sector declared it was the costliest natural disaster in Portugal with payouts exceeding USD295 million. Here, the 2017 October event, responsible for more than 200,000 ha of burnt area and 50 fatalities is analyzed from a compound perspective. A prolonged drought led to preconditioned cumulative hydric stress of vegetation in October 2017. In addition, on 15 October 2017, two other major drivers played a critical role: 1) the passage of hurricane Ophelia off the Coast of Portugal, responsible for exceptional meteorological conditions and 2) the human agent, responsible for an extremely elevated number of negligent ignitions. This disastrous combination of natural and anthropogenic drivers led to the uncontrolled wildfires observed on 15 October.

Drought-heatwave nexus in Brazil and related impacts on health and fires: A comprehensive review.

Climate change is drastically altering the frequency, duration, and severity of compound drought-heatwave (CDHW) episodes, which present a new challenge in environmental and socioeconomic sectors. These threats are of particular importance in low-income regions with growing populations, fragile infrastructure, and threatened ecosystems. This review synthesizes emerging progress in the understanding of CDHW patterns in Brazil while providing insights about the impacts on fire occurrence and public health. Evidence is mounting that heatwaves are becoming increasingly linked with droughts in northeastern and southeastern Brazil, the Amazonia, and the Pantanal. In those regions, recent studies have begun to build a better understanding of the physical mechanisms behind CDHW events, such as the soil moisture-atmosphere coupling, promoted by exceptional atmospheric blocking conditions. Results hint at a synergy between CDHW events and high fire activity in the country over the last decades, with the most recent example being the catastrophic 2020 fires in the Pantanal. Moreover, we show that HWs were responsible for increasing mortality and preterm births during record-breaking droughts in southeastern Brazil. This work paves the way for a more in-depth understanding on CDHW events and their impacts, which is crucial to enhance the adaptive capacity of different Brazilian sectors.

Putting fire on the map of Brazilian savanna ecoregions.

The Brazilian savanna (Cerrado) is considered the most floristically diverse savanna in the world, home to more than seven thousand species. The region is a mosaic of savannas, grasslands and forests whose unique biophysical and landscape attributes are on the basis of a recent ecoregional map, paving the way to improved region-based strategies for land management actions. However, as a fire-prone ecosystem, Cerrado owes much of its distribution and ecological properties to the fire regime and contributes to an important parcel of South America burned area. Accordingly, any attempt to use ecoregion geography as a guide for management strategies should take fire into account, as an essential variable. The main aim of this study is to complement the ecoregional map of the Cerrado with information related to the fire component. Using remotely sensed information, we identify patterns and trends of fire frequency, intensity, seasonality, extent and scar size, and combine this information for each ecoregion, relying on a simple classification that summarizes the main fire characteristics over the last two decades. Results show a marked north-south fire activity gradient, with increased contributions from MATOPIBA, the latest agricultural frontier. Five ecoregions alone account for two thirds of yearly burned area. More intense fires are found in the Arc of Deforestation and eastern ecoregions, while ecoregions in MATOPIBA display decreasing fire intensity. An innovative analysis of fire scars stratified by size class shows that infrequent large fires are responsible for the majority of burned area. These large fires display positive trends over many ecoregions, whereas smaller fires, albeit more frequent, have been decreasing in number. The final fire classification scheme shows well defined spatially-aggregated groups, where trends are found to be the key factor to evaluate fire within their regional contexts. Results presented here provide new insights to improve fire management strategies under a changing climate.

Assigning dates and identifying areas affected by fires in Portugal based on MODIS data.

An automated procedure is here presented that allows identifying and dating burned areas in Portugal using values of daily reflectance from near-infrared and middle-infrared bands, as obtained from the MODIS instrument. The algorithm detects persistent changes in monthly composites of the so-called (V,W) Burn-Sensitive Index and the day of maximum change in daily time series of W is in turn identified as the day of the burning event. The procedure is tested for 2005, the second worst fire season ever recorded in Portugal. Comparison between the obtained burned area map and the reference derived from Landsat imagery resulted in a Proportion Correct of 95.6%. Despite being applied only to the months of August and September, the algorithm is able to identify almost two-thirds of all scars that have occurred during the entire year of 2005. An assessment of the temporal accuracy of the dating procedure was also conducted, showing that 75% of estimated dates presented deviations between -5 and 5 days from dates of hotspots derived from the MODIS instrument. Information about location and date of burning events as provided by the proposed procedure may be viewed as complementary to the currently available official maps based on end-of-season Landsat imagery.

Assigning dates and identifying areas affected by fires in Portugal based on MODIS data

ABSTRACT An automated procedure is here presented that allows identifying and dating burned areas in Portugal using values of daily reflectance from near-infrared and middle-infrared bands, as obtained from the MODIS instrument. The algorithm detects persistent changes in monthly composites of the so-called (V,W) Burn-Sensitive Index and the day of maximum change in daily time series of W is in turn identified as the day of the burning event. The procedure is tested for 2005, the second worst fire season ever recorded in Portugal. Comparison between the obtained burned area map and the reference derived from Landsat imagery resulted in a Proportion Correct of 95.6%. Despite being applied only to the months of August and September, the algorithm is able to identify almost two-thirds of all scars that have occurred during the entire year of 2005. An assessment of the temporal accuracy of the dating procedure was also conducted, showing that 75% of estimated dates presented deviations between -5 and 5 days from dates of hotspots derived from the MODIS instrument. Information about location and date of burning events as provided by the proposed procedure may be viewed as complementary to the currently available official maps based on end-of-season Landsat imagery.

Atmospheric conditions associated with extreme fire activity in the Western Mediterranean region.

Active fire information provided by TERRA and AQUA instruments on-board sun-synchronous polar MODIS platform is used to describe fire activity in the Western Mediterranean and to identify and characterize the synoptic patterns of several meteorological fields associated with the occurrence of extreme fire activity episodes (EEs). The spatial distribution of the fire pixels during the period of 2003-2012 leads to the identification of two most affected sub-regions, namely the Northern and Western parts of the Iberian Peninsula (NWIP) and Northern Africa (NAFR). The temporal distribution of the fire pixels in these two sub-regions is characterized by: (i) high and non-concurrent inter- and intra-annual variability with maximum values during the summer of 2003 and 2005 in NWIP and 2007 and 2012 in NAFR; and, (ii) high intra-annual variability dominated by a prominent annual cycle with a main peak centred in August in both sub-regions and a less pronounced secondary peak in March only evident in NWIP region. The 34 EEs identified were grouped according to the location, period of occurrence and spatial configuration of the associated synoptic patterns into 3 clusters (NWIP-summer, NWIP-winter and NAFR-summer). Results from the composite analysis reveal similar fire weather conditions (statistically significant positive anomalies of air temperature and negative anomalies of air relative humidity) but associated with different circulation patterns at lower and mid-levels of the atmosphere associated with the occurrence of EEs in each cluster of the Western Mediterranean region.

Multistability, phase diagrams, and intransitivity in the Lorenz-84 low-order atmospheric circulation model.

We report phase diagrams detailing the intransitivity observed in the climate scenarios supported by a prototype atmospheric general circulation model, namely, the Lorenz-84 low-order model. So far, this model was known to have a pair of coexisting climates described originally by Lorenz. Bifurcation analysis allows the identification of a remarkably wide parameter region where up to four climates coexist simultaneously. In this region the dynamical behavior depends crucially on subtle and minute tuning of the model parameters. This strong parameter sensitivity makes the Lorenz-84 model a promising candidate of testing ground to validate techniques of assessing the sensitivity of low-order models to perturbations of parameters.