Comparison for the effects of different components of temperature variability on mortality: A multi-country time-series study.

BACKGROUND: Temperature variability (TV) is associated with increased mortality risk. However, it is still unknown whether intra-day or inter-day TV has different effects. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to assess the association of intra-day TV and inter-day TV with all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. METHODS: We collected data on total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality and meteorology from 758 locations in 47 countries or regions from 1972 to 2020. We defined inter-day TV as the standard deviation (SD) of daily mean temperatures across the lag interval, and intra-day TV as the average SD of minimum and maximum temperatures on each day. In the first stage, inter-day and intra-day TVs were modelled simultaneously in the quasi-Poisson time-series model for each location. In the second stage, a multi-level analysis was used to pool the location-specific estimates. RESULTS: Overall, the mortality risk due to each interquartile range [IQR] increase was higher for intra-day TV than for inter-day TV. The risk increased by 0.59% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.53, 0.65) for all-cause mortality, 0.64% (95% CI: 0.56, 0.73) for cardiovascular mortality, and 0.65% (95% CI: 0.49, 0.80) for respiratory mortality per IQR increase in intra-day TV0-7 (0.9 °C). An IQR increase in inter-day TV0-7 (1.6 °C) was associated with 0.22% (95% CI: 0.18, 0.26) increase in all-cause mortality, 0.44% (95% CI: 0.37, 0.50) increase in cardiovascular mortality, and 0.31% (95% CI: 0.21, 0.41) increase in respiratory mortality. The proportion of all-cause deaths attributable to intra-day TV0-7 and inter-day TV0-7 was 1.45% and 0.35%, respectively. The mortality risks varied by lag interval, climate area, season, and climate type. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicated that intra-day TV may explain the main part of the mortality risk related to TV and suggested that comprehensive evaluations should be proposed in more countries to help protect human health.

Global, regional, and national burden of heatwave-related mortality from 1990 to 2019: A three-stage modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The regional disparity of heatwave-related mortality over a long period has not been sufficiently assessed across the globe, impeding the localisation of adaptation planning and risk management towards climate change. We quantified the global mortality burden associated with heatwaves at a spatial resolution of 0.5°×0.5° and the temporal change from 1990 to 2019. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We collected data on daily deaths and temperature from 750 locations of 43 countries or regions, and 5 meta-predictors in 0.5°×0.5° resolution across the world. Heatwaves were defined as location-specific daily mean temperature ≥95th percentiles of year-round temperature range with duration ≥2 days. We first estimated the location-specific heatwave-mortality association. Secondly, a multivariate meta-regression was fitted between location-specific associations and 5 meta-predictors, which was in the third stage used with grid cell-specific meta-predictors to predict grid cell-specific association. Heatwave-related excess deaths were calculated for each grid and aggregated. During 1990 to 2019, 0.94% (95% CI: 0.68-1.19) of deaths [i.e., 153,078 cases (95% eCI: 109,950-194,227)] per warm season were estimated to be from heatwaves, accounting for 236 (95% eCI: 170-300) deaths per 10 million residents. The ratio between heatwave-related excess deaths and all premature deaths per warm season remained relatively unchanged over the 30 years, while the number of heatwave-related excess deaths per 10 million residents per warm season declined by 7.2% per decade in comparison to the 30-year average. Locations with the highest heatwave-related death ratio and rate were in Southern and Eastern Europe or areas had polar and alpine climates, and/or their residents had high incomes. The temporal change of heatwave-related mortality burden showed geographic disparities, such that locations with tropical climate or low incomes were observed with the greatest decline. The main limitation of this study was the lack of data from certain regions, e.g., Arabian Peninsula and South Asia. CONCLUSIONS: Heatwaves were associated with substantial mortality burden that varied spatiotemporally over the globe in the past 30 years. The findings indicate the potential benefit of governmental actions to enhance health sector adaptation and resilience, accounting for inequalities across communities.

Excess mortality in Europe coincides with peaks of COVID-19, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), November 2023 to February 2024.

Since the end of November 2023, the European Mortality Monitoring Network (EuroMOMO) has observed excess mortality in Europe. During weeks 48 2023-6 2024, preliminary results show a substantially increased rate of 95.3 (95% CI:  91.7-98.9) excess all-cause deaths per 100,000 person-years for all ages. This excess mortality is seen in adults aged 45 years and older, and coincides with widespread presence of COVID-19, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) observed in many European countries during the 2023/24 winter season.

Trends in liver transplantation for primary sclerosing cholangitis.

BACKGROUND: Primary sclerosing cholangitis is a cholestatic disease with a low prevalence in Italy. Indications for liver transplantation and the time of listing are not stated. AIM: We performed a national survey to investigate the listing criteria, comorbidities, and outcomes. METHODS: In April 2022, we surveyed liver transplantation in primary sclerosing cholangitis nationwide for the last 15 years. RESULTS: From 2007 to 2021, 445 patients were included on waiting lists, and 411 had undergone liver transplants. The median age at transplantation was 46 years (males 63.9%); 262 patients (59%) presented an inflammatory bowel disease. Transplants increased over the years, from 1.8 % in 2007 to 3.0 % in 2021. Cholangitis (51%) and hepatic decompensation (45%) were the main indications for listing. The disease recurred in 81 patients (20%). Patient survival after the first transplant was 94 %, 86% and 84% at one, five, and ten years. Twenty-four died in the first year (50% surgical complications, 25% infections); 33 between one to five years (36% recurrence, 21% cholangiocarcinoma recurrence) and nine after five years (56% de novo cancer, 44% recurrence). CONCLUSIONS: Primary sclerosing cholangitis has been an increasing indication for transplantation in Italy. Cholangitis and decompensation were the main indications for listing. Recurrence and cancer were the leading causes of death.

Implementation of climate adaptation in the public health sector in Europe: qualitative thematic analysis.

BACKGROUND: Adaptation, to reduce the health impacts of climate change, is driven by political action, public support and events (extreme weather). National adaptation policies or strategies are limited in addressing human health risks and implementation of adaptation in the public health community is not well understood. AIM: To identify key issues in climate change adaptation implementation for public health in Europe. METHODS: Key informant interviews with decision-makers in international, national and local city governments in 19 European countries. Participants were recruited if a senior decision-maker working in public health, environmental health or climate adaptation. INTERVIEWS ADDRESSED: Barriers and levers for adaptation, policy alignment, networks and evidence needs. RESULTS: Thirty-two interviews were completed between June and October 2021 with 4 international, 5 national and 23 city/local government stakeholders. Respondents reported inadequate resources (funding, training and personnel) for health-adaptation implementation and the marginal role of health in adaptation policy. A clear mandate to act was key for implementation and resource allocation. Limited cross-departmental collaboration and poor understanding of the role of public health in climate policy were barriers to implementation. CONCLUSIONS: Across Europe, progress is varied in implementation of climate adaptation in public health planning. Providing appropriate resources, training, knowledge mobilization and supporting cross-departmental collaboration and multi-level governance will facilitate adaptation to protect human health.

Reproducibility and accuracy of a pocket-size ultrasound device in assessing liver steatosis.

BACKGROUND: This diagnostic prospective study compared the feasibility and diagnostic accuracy of Pocket-size Ultrasound Devices (PUDs) against standard ultrasound (US) in detecting liver steatosis using the controlled attenuation parameter (CAP) and liver biopsy as reference standards. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Consecutive patients with chronic liver diseases were assessed for the presence of steatosis using PUD and US. A CAP cut-off value >275 dB/m was applied to establish ≥S1. A 26-patient subgroup underwent liver biopsy. PUD reproducibility was evaluated using Cohen's k statistic. Diagnostic accuracy of PUD and US was given as Sensibility (Sn), Specificity (Sp), Positive and Negative Predictive Values (PPV, NPV), positive and negative Likelihood Ratio (LR+, LR-). RESULTS: 81 consecutive patients (69% males) with multiple etiologies were enroled. PUD inter-observer agreement was good (k 0.77, 95%CI 0.62-0.93). PUD and US identified ≥S1 according to CAP values respectively with Sn 0.87, Sp 0.61, PPV 0.49, NPV 0.91, LR+ 2.04, LR- 0.07, AUROC 0.74 and Sn 0.96, Sp 0.54, PPV 0.47, NPV 0.97, LR+ 2.10, LR- 0.07, AUROC 0.75. CONCLUSIONS: PUD shows good reproducibility and diagnostic accuracy in ruling liver steatosis out, representing a useful point-of-care tool to avail of hepatologists interested in excluding NAFLD, but with basic US skills.

Assessing heat effects on respiratory mortality and location characteristics as modifiers of heat effects at a small area scale in Central-Northern Europe.

Background: Heat effects on respiratory mortality are known, mostly from time-series studies of city-wide data. A limited number of studies have been conducted at the national level or covering non-urban areas. Effect modification by area-level factors has not been extensively investigated. Our study assessed the heat effects on respiratory mortality at a small administrative area level in Norway, Germany, and England and Wales, in the warm period (May-September) within 1996-2018. Also, we examined possible effect modification by several area-level characteristics in the framework of the EU-Horizon2020 EXHAUSTION project. Methods: Daily respiratory mortality counts and modeled air temperature data were collected for Norway, Germany, and England and Wales at a small administrative area level. The temperature-mortality association was assessed by small area-specific Poisson regression allowing for overdispersion, using distributed lag non-linear models. Estimates were pooled at the national level and overall using a random-effect meta-analysis. Age- and sex-specific models were also applied. A multilevel random-effects model was applied to investigate the modification of the heat effects by area-level factors. Results: A rise in temperature from the 75th to 99th percentile was associated with a 27% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 19%, 34%) increase in respiratory mortality, with higher effects for females. Increased population density and PM2.5 concentrations were associated with stronger heat effects on mortality. Conclusions: Our study strengthens the evidence of adverse heat effects on respiratory mortality in Northern Europe by identifying vulnerable subgroups and subregions. This may contribute to the development of targeted policies for adaptation to climate change.

Open Science Training in TRIPLE.

This case study focuses on the online training activities on Open Science delivered within the H2020 project Transforming Research through Innovative Practices for Linked Interdisciplinary Exploration (TRIPLE, Grant Agreement 863420). The project is dedicated to building a discovery platform for the Social Sciences and Humanities (SSH) and is committed to promoting and supporting the uptake of Open Science within research practices. In order to address SSH research and training communities' needs for enhanced competencies on Open Science and for stronger support in the Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, Reusable (FAIR) management of digital training materials, two reusable outputs were produced. The work carried out is presented as a novel approach to tackle the issues related to FAIRifying research and training practices and to create training resources whose reusability and relevance reaches beyond the project lifetime and framework. The case study presents the methods by which the results were produced so as to encourage and enable their future adaptation and reuse. The TRIPLE Open Science training series (result 1) targets SSH researchers, research support personnel and infrastructure developers in need of practical tools and specific skills to integrate Open Science practices in their workflows. The training series provides 12 competence-oriented online training events in Open Access whose training materials are available as Open Educational Resources (OER). The TRIPLE Training Toolkit (result 2) targets training organisers and research performing organisations who wish to design and manage training events as OERs and increase the impact of their training following good practice. The Toolkit is an easily reproducible workflow designed to help trainers minimise the time they spend in managing training events following FAIR practice. The workflow follows a FAIR-by-design method to address the frequent findability and reusability issues related to the management of digital training resources .

Occupational heat stress, heat-related effects and the related social and economic loss: a scoping literature review.

Introduction: While there is consistent evidence on the effects of heat on workers' health and safety, the evidence on the resulting social and economic impacts is still limited. A scoping literature review was carried out to update the knowledge about social and economic impacts related to workplace heat exposure. Methods: The literature search was conducted in two bibliographic databases (Web of Science and PubMed), to select publications from 2010 to April 2022. Results: A total of 89 studies were included in the qualitative synthesis (32 field studies, 8 studies estimating healthcare-related costs, and 49 economic studies). Overall, consistent evidence of the socioeconomic impacts of heat exposure in the workplace emerges. Actual productivity losses at the global level are nearly 10% and are expected to increase up to 30-40% under the worst climate change scenario by the end of the century. Vulnerable regions are mainly low-latitude and low- and middle-income countries with a greater proportion of outdoor workers but include also areas from developed countries such as southern Europe. The most affected sectors are agriculture and construction. There is limited evidence regarding the role of cooling measures and changes in the work/rest schedule in mitigating heat-related productivity loss. Conclusion: The available evidence highlights the need for strengthening prevention efforts to enhance workers' awareness and resilience toward occupational heat exposure, particularly in low- and middle-income countries but also in some areas of developed countries where an increase in frequency and intensity of heat waves is expected under future climate change scenarios.

Assessment of short-term heat effects on cardiovascular mortality and vulnerability factors using small area data in Europe.

BACKGROUND: Short-term associations between heat and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality have been examined mostly in large cities. However, different vulnerability and exposure levels may contribute to spatial heterogeneity. This study assessed heat effects on CVD mortality and potential vulnerability factors using data from three European countries, including urban and rural settings. METHODS: We collected daily counts of CVD deaths aggregated at the small-area level in Norway (small-area level: municipality), England and Wales (lower super output areas), and Germany (district) during the warm season (May-September) from 1996 to 2018. Daily mean air temperatures estimated by spatial-temporal models were assigned to each small area. Within each country, we applied area-specific Quasi-Poisson regression using distributed lag nonlinear models to examine the heat effects at lag 0-1 days. The area-specific estimates were pooled by random-effects meta-analysis to derive country-specific and overall heat effects. We examined individual- and area-level heat vulnerability factors by subgroup analyses and meta-regression, respectively. RESULTS: We included 2.84 million CVD deaths in analyses. For an increase in temperature from the 75th to the 99th percentile, the pooled relative risk (RR) for CVD mortality was 1.14 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.26), with the country-specific RRs ranging from 1.04 (1.00, 1.09) in Norway to 1.24 (1.23, 1.26) in Germany. Heat effects were stronger among women [RRs (95% CIs) for women and men: 1.18 (1.08, 1.28) vs. 1.12 (1.00, 1.24)]. Greater heat vulnerability was observed in areas with high population density, high degree of urbanization, low green coverage, and high levels of fine particulate matter. CONCLUSION: This study provides evidence for the heat effects on CVD mortality in European countries using high-resolution data from both urban and rural areas. Besides, we identified individual- and area-level heat vulnerability factors. Our findings may facilitate the development of heat-health action plans to increase resilience to climate change.

Lancet Countdown indicators for Italy: tracking progress on climate change and health

OBJECTIVES: to provide evidence of the health impacts of climate change in Italy. DESIGN: descriptive study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: the indicators published in the 2022 Lancet Countdown report were adapted and refined to provide the most recent data relevant to Italy. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: twelve indicators were measured, organized within five sections mirroring those of the 2022 Lancet Countdown report: climate change impacts, exposures, and vulnerabilities; adaptation, planning, and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; economics and finance; and public and political engagement. RESULTS: the overall picture depicted by the analysis of the 12 indicators reveals two key findings. First, climate change is already affecting the health of Italian populations, with effects not being uniform across the Country and with the most vulnerable groups being disproportionately at risk. Second, results showed that Italy's mitigation response has been partial, with major costs to human health. Accelerated climate change mitigation through energy system decarbonisation and shifts to more sustainable modes of transport could offer major benefits to health from cleaner air locally and from more active lifestyles, and to climate change from reduction of global warming. The decarbonisation of agricultural systems would similarly offer health co-benefits to Italian population. Conclusions: through accelerated action on climate change mitigation, Italy has the opportunity of delivering major and immediate health benefits to its population. Developing a key set of local indicators to monitor the impacts of climate change and evaluate response actions, in terms of adaptation and mitigation, can help support and enhance policy and action to fight climate changes.

Health impact of air pollution and air temperature in Italy: evidence for policy actions

OBJECTIVES: to estimate the impact (number of deaths and attributable fraction) of air pollution (chronic exposure to PM2.5 and NO2) and high summer temperatures (acute exposure) on mortality in Italy. DESIGN: observational study. Time series analysis (for estimating acute effects of air temperature), and computation of deaths attributable to heat/pollution using standard health impact assessment functions. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: for the assessment of the impact due to chronic exposure to air pollutants, the study period considered was 2016-2019. For the assessment of the acute effects of air temperature and related impacts, the municipal daily series of deaths from all causes relating to the period 2003-2015 were used. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: mortality for all causes (effects and impacts of acute exposure to air temperature), cause-specific mortality (impact of chronic exposure to pollution). RESULTS: concerning chronic exposure to PM2.5, each year during 2016-2019, 72,083 deaths (11.7%) were estimated to be attributable to annual mean levels of PM2.5 above 5 µg/m3 (WHO-2021 Air Quality Guideline value). Of these, 39,628 were estimated in the regions of the Po Valley and 10,232 in the 6 Italian cities with >500,000 inhabitants. With reference to acute effects of air temperature, over 14,500 deaths (2.3%) were estimated to be attributable to daily temperature increases from the 75th to the 99th percentile of the municipality-specific distribution for the year 2015. Conclusions: high air pollution concentrations and summer temperatures are two environmental risk factors extremely relevant for public health. Although the prevention and mitigation interventions carried out in recent years have contributed to reducing the exposure of the population, there are still alarming numbers of deaths attributable to high levels of particulate matter, nitrogen oxides, and air temperature in the Italian population.

[Acute effects of air pollution and extreme temperatures on cause-specific mortality in Italy. Results of the BIGEPI project.] / Effetti acuti dell'inquinamento atmosferico e delle temperature estreme sulla mortalità causa-specifica in Italia. Risultati del progetto BIGEPI.

INTRODUCTION: Air pollution and extreme temperatures have been associated with multiple adverse health effects, especially on the cardiovascular and respiratory systems. The evidence of a relationship between daily exposures and mortality from metabolic, nervous and mental causes needs to be strengthened. The aim of this study is to investigate the association between daily exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and extreme temperatures (heat and cold) with cause-specific mortality in the entire Italian population. METHODS: The daily counts of deaths from natural, cardiovascular, respiratory, metabolic, diabetes, nervous and mental causes were provided by Istat at the municipal level for the period 2006-2015. Through the application of machine-learning models based on satellite data and spatiotemporal variables, population-weighted exposures to daily mean PM2.5 (2013-2015) and air temperature (2006-2015) were estimated at municipality level. Time-series models adjusted for seasonal and long-term trends were applied, and associations between the above exposures and different causes of death at the national level were estimated. RESULTS: The study found a marked effect of PM2.5 on deaths from nervous causes, with a % increase of risk (IR%) of 6.55% (95% confidence interval: 3.38%-9.81%) per PM2.5 increases of 10 µg/m3. The study also highlighted significant effects of low and high temperatures on all study outcomes. The effects were greater for high temperatures. In particular, the effects of heat, expressed as a % increase in risk per temperature increase from the 75th to the 99th percentile, show the highest associations with mortality from nervous causes (58.3%; 95%CI: 49.7%-67.5%), mental causes (48.4%; 95%CI: 40.4%-56.9%), respiratory causes 45.8%; 95%CI: 39.7%-52.1%) and metabolic causes (36.9%; 95%CI: 30.6%-43.5%). DISCUSSION: The study showed a strong association between daily exposure to PM2.5 and extreme temperatures, especially heat, with mortality outcomes, especially those under-investigated, such as diabetes, metabolic, nervous and mental causes.

Community factors and excess mortality in the COVID-19 pandemic in England, Italy and Sweden.

BACKGROUND: Analyses of coronavirus disease 19 suggest specific risk factors make communities more or less vulnerable to pandemic-related deaths within countries. What is unclear is whether the characteristics affecting vulnerability of small communities within countries produce similar patterns of excess mortality across countries with different demographics and public health responses to the pandemic. Our aim is to quantify community-level variations in excess mortality within England, Italy and Sweden and identify how such spatial variability was driven by community-level characteristics. METHODS: We applied a two-stage Bayesian model to quantify inequalities in excess mortality in people aged 40 years and older at the community level in England, Italy and Sweden during the first year of the pandemic (March 2020-February 2021). We used community characteristics measuring deprivation, air pollution, living conditions, population density and movement of people as covariates to quantify their associations with excess mortality. RESULTS: We found just under half of communities in England (48.1%) and Italy (45.8%) had an excess mortality of over 300 per 100 000 males over the age of 40, while for Sweden that covered 23.1% of communities. We showed that deprivation is a strong predictor of excess mortality across the three countries, and communities with high levels of overcrowding were associated with higher excess mortality in England and Sweden. CONCLUSION: These results highlight some international similarities in factors affecting mortality that will help policy makers target public health measures to increase resilience to the mortality impacts of this and future pandemics.

A spatial indicator of environmental and climatic vulnerability in Rome.

BACKGROUND: Urban areas are disproportionately affected by multiple pressures from overbuilding, traffic, air pollution, and heat waves that often interact and are interconnected in producing health effects. A new synthetic tool to summarize environmental and climatic vulnerability has been introduced for the city of Rome, Italy, to provide the basis for environmental and health policies. METHODS: From a literature overview and based on the availability of data, several macro-dimensions were identified on 1,461 grid cells with a width of 1 km2 in Rome: land use, roads and traffic-related exposure, green space data, soil sealing, air pollution (PM2.5, PM10, NO2, C6H6, SO2), urban heat island intensity. The Geographically Weighted Principal Component Analysis (GWPCA) method was performed to produce a composite spatial indicator to describe and interpret each spatial feature by integrating all environmental dimensions. The method of natural breaks was used to define the risk classes. A bivariate map of environmental and social vulnerability was described. RESULTS: The first three components explained most of the variation in the data structure with an average of 78.2% of the total percentage of variance (PTV) explained by the GWPCA, with air pollution and soil sealing contributing most in the first component; green space in the second component; road and traffic density and SO2 in the third component. 56% of the population lives in areas with high or very high levels of environmental and climatic vulnerability, showing a periphery-centre trend, inverse to the deprivation index. CONCLUSIONS: A new environmental and climatic vulnerability indicator for the city of Rome was able to identify the areas and population at risk in the city, and can be integrated with other vulnerability dimensions, such as social deprivation, providing the basis for risk stratification of the population and for the design of policies to address environmental, climatic and social injustice.