Achieving the third 95 in sub-Saharan Africa: application of machine learning approaches to predict viral failure.

OBJECTIVE: Viral failure in people with HIV (PWH) may be influenced by multiple sociobehavioral, clinical, and context-specific factors, and supervised learning approaches may identify novel predictors. We compared the performance of two supervised learning algorithms to predict viral failure in four African countries. DESIGN: Cohort study. METHODS: The African Cohort Study is an ongoing, longitudinal cohort enrolling PWH at 12 sites in Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, and Nigeria. Participants underwent physical examination, medical history-taking, medical record extraction, sociobehavioral interviews, and laboratory testing. In cross-sectional analyses of enrollment data, viral failure was defined as a viral load at least 1000 copies/ml among participants on antiretroviral therapy (ART) for at least 6 months. We compared the performance of lasso-type regularized regression and random forests by calculating area under the curve (AUC) and used each to identify factors associated with viral failure; 94 explanatory variables were considered. RESULTS: Between January 2013 and December 2020, 2941 PWH were enrolled, 1602 had been on antiretroviral therapy (ART) for at least 6 months, and 1571 participants with complete case data were included. At enrollment, 190 (12.0%) had viral failure. The lasso regression model was slightly superior to the random forest in its ability to identify PWH with viral failure (AUC: 0.82 vs. 0.75). Both models identified CD4 + count, ART regimen, age, self-reported ART adherence and duration on ART as important factors associated with viral failure. CONCLUSION: These findings corroborate existing literature primarily based on hypothesis-testing statistical approaches and help to generate questions for future investigations that may impact viral failure.

Coronavirus Antibody Responses before COVID-19 Pandemic, Africa and Thailand.

Prior immune responses to coronaviruses might affect human SARS-CoV-2 response. We screened 2,565 serum and plasma samples collected from 2013 through early 2020, before the COVID-19 pandemic began, from 2,250 persons in 4 countries in Africa (Kenya, Nigeria, Tanzania, and Uganda) and in Thailand, including persons living with HIV-1. We detected IgG responses to SARS-CoV-2 spike (S) subunit 2 protein in 1.8% of participants. Profiling against 23 coronavirus antigens revealed that responses to S, subunit 2, or subunit 1 proteins were significantly more frequent than responses to the receptor-binding domain, S-Trimer, or nucleocapsid proteins (p<0.0001). We observed similar responses in persons with or without HIV-1. Among all coronavirus antigens tested, SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV-1, and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus antibody responses were much higher in participants from Africa than in participants from Thailand (p<0.01). We noted less pronounced differences for endemic coronaviruses. Serosurveys could affect vaccine and monoclonal antibody distribution across global populations.

Acute HIV-1 infection viremia associate with rebound upon treatment interruption.

BACKGROUND: Analytic treatment interruption (ATI) studies evaluate strategies to potentially induce remission in people living with HIV-1 but are often limited in sample size. We combined data from four studies that tested three interventions (vorinostat/hydroxychloroquine/maraviroc before ATI, Ad26/MVA vaccination before ATI, and VRC01 antibody infusion during ATI). METHODS: The statistical validity of combining data from these participants was evaluated. Eleven variables, including HIV-1 viral load at diagnosis, Fiebig stage, and CD4+ T cell count were evaluated using pairwise correlations, statistical tests, and Cox survival models. FINDINGS: Participants had homogeneous demographic and clinical characteristics. Because an antiviral effect was seen in participants who received VRC01 infusion post-ATI, these participants were excluded from the analysis, permitting a pooled analysis of 53 participants. Time to viral rebound was significantly associated with variables measured at the beginning of infection: pre-antiretroviral therapy (ART) viral load (HR = 1.34, p = 0.022), time to viral suppression post-ART initiation (HR = 1.07, p < 0.001), and area under the viral load curve (HR = 1.34, p = 0.026). CONCLUSIONS: We show that higher viral loads in acute HIV-1 infection were associated with faster viral rebound, demonstrating that the initial stage of HIV-1 infection before ART initiation has a strong impact on viral rebound post-ATI years later. FUNDING: This work was supported by a cooperative agreement between the Henry M. Jackson Foundation for the Advancement of Military Medicine and the US Department of the Army (W81XWH-18-2-0040). This research was funded, in part, by the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (AAI20052001) and the I4C Martin Delaney Collaboratory (5UM1AI126603-05).

The changing cultural and economic dynamics of polygyny and concurrent sexual partnerships in Iringa, Tanzania.

Polygyny has been identified both as a 'benign' form of concurrency and as the cultural basis of concurrent partnerships that are considered important drivers of the HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa. This paper investigates the changing cultural and economic dynamics of polygyny in concurrency in Iringa, Tanzania, a region with traditions of polygyny and high prevalence of HIV. Our analysis of focus group discussions, in-depth interviews and key informant interviews indicate that contemporary concurrent partnerships differ from regional traditions of polygyny. Whereas in the past, polygyny reflected men's and their kin group's wealth and garnered additional prestige, polygyny today is increasingly seen as a threat to health, and as leading to poverty. Nevertheless, participants evoked the social prestige of polygyny to explain men's present-day concurrency, even outside the bounds of marriage, and despite continued social prohibitions against extramarital affairs. Difficult economic conditions, combined with this prestige, made it easier for men to engage in concurrency without the considerable obligations to wives and children in polygyny. Local economic conditions also compelled women to seek concurrent partners to meet basic needs and to access consumer goods, but risked greater moral judgement than men, especially if deemed to have excessive 'desire' for money.