Risk factors for African swine fever incursion in Romanian domestic farms during 2019.

African swine fever (ASF) entered Georgia in 2007 and the EU in 2014. In the EU, the virus primarily spread in wild boar (Sus scrofa) in the period from 2014-2018. However, from the summer 2018, numerous domestic pig farms in Romania were affected by ASF. In contrast to the existing knowledge on ASF transmission routes, the understanding of risk factors and the importance of different transmission routes is still limited. In the period from May to September 2019, 655 Romanian pig farms were included in a matched case-control study investigating possible risk factors for ASF incursion in commercial and backyard pig farms. The results showed that close proximity to outbreaks in domestic farms was a risk factor in commercial as well as backyard farms. Furthermore, in backyard farms, herd size, wild boar abundance around the farm, number of domestic outbreaks within 2 km around farms, short distance to wild boar cases and visits of professionals working on farms were statistically significant risk factors. Additionally, growing crops around the farm, which could potentially attract wild boar, and feeding forage from ASF affected areas to the pigs were risk factors for ASF incursion in backyard farms.

Identification and characterization of lumpy skin disease virus isolated from cattle in the Republic of North Ossetia-Alania in 2015.

The first notifications of the unknown disease of cattle appeared in September-October 2015 in North Caucasus region of Russia (Republic of North Ossetia-Alania). The clinical signs included watery discharge from eyes, apathy, loss of appetite, salivation, lameness and nodular skin lesions. Capripoxvirus genome was detected by real-time PCR in the tissue samples of sick animals. The aetiological agent was isolated in the primary cell cultures of lamb testis and goat testis, as well as in the continuous MDBK cell culture. Further sequencing of the GPCR gene and phylogenetic analysis showed the close genetic relationship of isolated capripoxvirus with a group of lumpy skin disease virus. Koch's postulates were fulfilled by the experimental infection of four calves with a suspension of tissue samples from sick animals.

Inferring within-herd transmission parameters for African swine fever virus using mortality data from outbreaks in the Russian Federation.

Mortality data are routinely collected for many livestock and poultry species, and they are often used for epidemiological purposes, including estimating transmission parameters. In this study, we infer transmission rates for African swine fever virus (ASFV), an important transboundary disease of swine, using mortality data collected from nine pig herds in the Russian Federation with confirmed outbreaks of ASFV. Parameters in a stochastic model for the transmission of ASFV within a herd were estimated using approximate Bayesian computation. Estimates for the basic reproduction number varied amongst herds, ranging from 4.4 to 17.3. This was primarily a consequence of differences in transmission rate (range: 0.7-2.2), but also differences in the mean infectious period (range: 4.5-8.3 days). We also found differences amongst herds in the mean latent period (range: 5.8-9.7 days). Furthermore, our results suggest that ASFV could be circulating in a herd for several weeks before a substantial increase in mortality is observed in a herd, limiting the usefulness of mortality data as a means of early detection of an outbreak. However, our results also show that mortality data are a potential source of data from which to infer transmission parameters, at least for diseases which cause high mortality.

Estimating the Basic Reproductive Number for African Swine Fever Using the Ukrainian Historical Epidemic of 1977.

In 1977, Ukraine experienced a local epidemic of African swine fever (ASF) in the Odessa region. A total of 20 settlements were affected during the course of the epidemic, including both large farms and backyard households. Thanks to timely interventions, the virus circulation was successfully eradicated within 6 months, leading to no additional outbreaks. Detailed report of the outbreak's investigation has been publically available from 2014. The report contains some quantitative data that allow studying the ASF-spread dynamics in the course of the epidemic. In our study, we used this historical epidemic to estimate the basic reproductive number of the ASF virus both within and between farms. The basic reproductive number (R0 ) represents the average number of secondary infections caused by one infectious unit during its infectious period in a susceptible population. Calculations were made under assumption of an exponential initial growth by fitting the approximating curve to the initial segments of the epidemic curves. The R0 both within farm and between farms was estimated at 7.46 (95% confidence interval: 5.68-9.21) and 1.65 (1.42-1.88), respectively. Corresponding daily transmission rates were estimated at 1.07 (0.81-1.32) and 0.09 (0.07-0.10). These estimations based on historical data are consistent with those using data generated by the recent epidemic currently affecting eastern Europe. Such results contribute to the published knowledge on the ASF transmission dynamics under natural conditions and could be used to model and predict the spread of ASF in affected and non-affected regions and to evaluate the effectiveness of different control measures.

Statistical Exploration of Local Transmission Routes for African Swine Fever in Pigs in the Russian Federation, 2007-2014.

African swine fever (ASF) is a devastating viral disease of swine that is present in both pigs and wild boar in the western part of the Russian Federation and the eastern part of the European Union. It represents a significant threat for the European pig production industry as neither treatment nor vaccine is available. This study analysed the spatial and spatio-temporal distributions of ASF cases that were reported in domestic pigs and wild boar for assessing the likelihood of wild boar-to-domestic pig and farm-to-farm transmission routes in the epidemic that occurred from 2007 to 2014 in the Krasnodar and the Tver regions, two of the most affected areas of the Russian Federation. Results suggest that in both regions, the spatial proximity to an infectious farm was a strong risk factor for infection of a susceptible farm. In the Krasnodar region, the results of the statistical analysis suggest that the epidemics in wild boar and in domestic pigs were independent from each other. In contrast, there seemed to be a dependence between the two epidemics in the Tver region. But because outbreaks in domestic pigs were not statistically significantly clustered around wild boar cases, the joint spatial distribution of wild boar cases and of outbreaks in domestic pigs in the Tver region may be explained by regular spillovers from the domestic pig to the wild boar population. These findings confirm the need to maintain high biosecurity standards on pig farms and justify strict control measures targeted at domestic pig production such as culling of infected herds and local movement restrictions.

Attitudes and Beliefs of Pig Farmers and Wild Boar Hunters Towards Reporting of African Swine Fever in Bulgaria, Germany and the Western Part of the Russian Federation.

This study investigated the attitudes and beliefs of pig farmers and hunters in Germany, Bulgaria and the western part of the Russian Federation towards reporting suspected cases of African swine fever (ASF). Data were collected using a web-based questionnaire survey targeting pig farmers and hunters in these three study areas. Separate multivariable logistic regression models identified key variables associated with each of the three binary outcome variables whether or not farmers would immediately report suspected cases of ASF, whether or not hunters would submit samples from hunted wild boar for diagnostic testing and whether or not hunters would report wild boar carcasses. The results showed that farmers who would not immediately report suspected cases of ASF are more likely to believe that their reputation in the local community would be adversely affected if they were to report it, that they can control the outbreak themselves without the involvement of veterinary services and that laboratory confirmation would take too long. The modelling also indicated that hunters who did not usually submit samples of their harvested wild boar for ASF diagnosis, and hunters who did not report wild boar carcasses are more likely to justify their behaviour through a lack of awareness of the possibility of reporting. These findings emphasize the need to develop more effective communication strategies targeted at pig farmers and hunters about the disease, its epidemiology, consequences and control methods, to increase the likelihood of early reporting, especially in the Russian Federation where the virus circulates.

Reproductive Ratio for the Local Spread of African Swine Fever in Wild Boars in the Russian Federation.

African swine fever (ASF) has caused the swine industry of the Russian Federation substantial economic losses over the last 7 years, and the disease spread from there to a number of neighbouring countries. Wild boar has been involved in the spread of the disease both at local and at transboundary levels. Understanding ASF dynamics in wild boars is prerequisite to preventing the spread and to designing and applying effective surveillance and control plans. The reproductive ratio (R0 ) is an epidemiological indicator commonly used to quantify the extent of disease spread. Here, it was estimated in nine spatio-temporal clusters of ASF in wild boar cases in the Russian Federation (2007-2013). Clusters were defined by exploring the maximum distance of association of ASF cases using K Ripley analysis and spatio-temporal scan statistics. A maximum spatial association of 133 km in wild boar cases was identified which is within de the conventional radius of surveillance zone (100-150 km). The mean range value of R0  = 1.58 (1.13-3.77) was lower compared to values previously estimated for ASF transmission within farms but similar to early estimates between farm (R0  = 2-3), in domestic pigs using notification data in the Russian Federation. Results obtained provide quantitative knowledge on the epidemiology of ASF in wild boars in the Russian Federation. They identify the ASF transmission rate value in affected natural wild populations, for the first time, which could provide basis for modelling ASF transmission and suggest that current surveillance radius should be reviewed to make surveillance in wild nature more targeted and effective.

African swine fever in the Russian Federation: spatio-temporal analysis and epidemiological overview.

African swine fever is viral disease of domestic and wild pigs which leads to almost total mortality and causes great economic losses due to absence of vaccine. Having been introduced into the Russian Federation in 2007 the disease has spread widely in the southern region of the country and since 2011 has demonstrated a tendency to form a secondary endemic zone in the central part of the country. In the present study spatio-temporal patterns of ASF diffusion in the populations of wild and domestic pigs are analyzed. The structure of the domestic swine population is conventionally divided into a sub-population at low biosecurity (77% of the total number of outbreaks in domestic pigs) and a population at high biosecurity (23%). The statistics of ASF cases registered in each of these sub-populations is presented. The possible causes of ASF diffusion across the country are discussed. The use of geo-information technologies (GIS) enabled confirmation of the conclusion that an epidemic center has shifted into the central part of Russia. The main conclusions of this study are that: (1) anthropogenic factors play the leading role in the spread of ASF across the territory of the RF; (2) small-scale private holdings (low biosecurity population) are more exposed to ASF virus introduction; (3) there is a high risk of diffusion of ASFV from the secondary endemic zone in the central part of the RF to neighboring regions.

African swine fever in the North Caucasus region and the Russian Federation in years 2007-2012.

Since the introduction of the virus into the Republic of Georgia in 2007 African swine fever (ASF) has become a large-scale epidemic involving the domestic pig population but wild boars are involved as well. From 2008 to 2009 the ASF epidemic affected wild and domestic pigs in all the southern regions of the Russian Federation (RF). The driving force of the epidemic in its initial stages was direct contact between infected wild boars and between wild boars and traditionally free-ranging domestic pigs in backyard farms. Driving forces of the epidemic at the its first stages was direct contact of infected wild boars between each other and with traditionally free ranged domestic pigs in backyard farms. The next stage developed due to illegal movement of pig products contaminated by African swine fever virus (ASFV) from affected regions and swill feeding, and inefficient implementation of measures to prevent and control ASF. From 2010 through 2012, ASF spread to other, previously unaffected regions of the RF. Most of outbreaks in the southern regions (Krasnodar, Stavropol, Rostov regions) are secondary. Currently, the disease situation observed in endemic areas of the RF, including the southern Krasnodar and Volgograd regions and the central Tver' region, is very complicated. In 2012, a large number of outbreaks in domestic pigs and in wild boars were reported. The circulating ASFV is highly virulent and has maintained its virulence throughout the epidemic since its introduction in 2007. Considering the forces currently driving the ASF epidemic - circulation of ASF virus in wild boars, ineffectiveness of prevention and control measures, lack of common interest in eradicating the disease and absence of a nationally funded eradication program - continued outbreaks, including those in previously unaffected regions of the RF, can be expected.

[Urea as an antimicrobial and dehydration agent for the local treatment of suppurative surgical infection]. / Mochevina kak antimikrobnoe i degidratatsionnoe sredstvo dlia mestnogo lecheniia pri gnoino-khirurgicheskoi infektsii.

The 30% solution of urea is found to be an effective quick-acting means against gram-positive and gram-negative pyogenic microflora. Microorganisms discharged from purulent foci of patients were sensitive to the drug in 100% of cases. The local application of the 30% urea solution as irrigation used in 156 patients with pyo-surgical infection has shown the drug to be well endured by the patients. It has no side effects. The purulent process can be cupped off 1,5-1,7 times quicker.