A comprehensive, predictive mortality score for patients with bloodstream infections (PROBAC): a prospective, multicentre cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: Bloodstream infections (BSI) are an important cause of mortality, although they show heterogeneity depending on patients and aetiological factors. Comprehensive and specific mortality scores for BSI are scarce. The objective of this study was to develop a mortality predictive score in BSI based on a multicentre prospective cohort. METHODS: A prospective cohort including consecutive adults with bacteraemia recruited between October 2016 and March 2017 in 26 Spanish hospitals was randomly divided into a derivation cohort (DC) and a validation cohort (VC). The outcome was all-cause 30-day mortality. Predictors were assessed the day of blood culture growth. A logistic regression model and score were developed in the DC for mortality predictors; the model was applied to the VC. RESULTS: Overall, 4102 patients formed the DC and 2009 the VC. Mortality was 11.8% in the DC and 12.34% in the CV; the patients and aetiological features were similar for both cohorts. The mortality predictors selected in the final multivariate model in the DC were age, cancer, liver cirrhosis, fatal McCabe underlying condition, polymicrobial bacteraemia, high-risk aetiologies, high-risk source of infection, recent use of broad-spectrum antibiotics, stupor or coma, mean blood pressure <70 mmHg and PaO2/FiO2 ≤ 300 or equivalent. Mortality in the DC was <2% for ≤2 points, 6%-14% for 3-7 points, 26%-45% for 8-12 points and ≥60% for ≥13 points. The predictive score had areas under the receiving operating curves of 0.81 (95% CI 0.79-0.83) in the DC and 0.80 (0.78-0.83) in the VC. CONCLUSIONS: A 30 day mortality predictive score in BSI with good discrimination ability was developed and internally validated.

Epidemiology and Risk Factors of Mycotic Aneurysm in Patients With Infective Endocarditis and the Impact of its Rupture in Outcomes. Analysis of a National Prospective Cohort.

Background: Several aspects of the occurrence and management of mycotic aneurysm (MA) in patients with infective endocarditis (IE) have not been studied. Objectives: To determine the incidence and factors associated with MA presence and rupture and to assess the evolution of those initially unruptured MA. Methods: Prospective multicenter cohort including all patients with definite IE between January 2008 and December 2020. Results: Of 4548 IE cases, 85 (1.9%) developed MA. Forty-six (54.1%) had intracranial MA and 39 (45.9%) extracranial MA. Rupture of MA occurred in 39 patients (45.9%). Patients with ruptured MA had higher 1-year mortality (hazard ratio, 2.33; 95% confidence interval, 1.49-3.67). Of the 55 patients with initially unruptured MA, 9 (16.4%) presented rupture after a median of 3 days (interquartile range, 1-7) after diagnosis, being more frequent in intracranial MA (32% vs 3.3%, P = .004). Of patients with initially unruptured MA, there was a trend toward better outcomes among those who received early specific intervention, including lower follow-up rupture (7.1% vs 25.0%, P = .170), higher rate of aneurysm resolution in control imaging (66.7% vs 31.3%, P = .087), lower MA-related mortality (7.1% vs 16.7%, P = .232), and lower MA-related sequalae (0% vs 27.8%, P = .045). Conclusions: MA occurred in 2% of the patients with IE. Half of the Mas occurred in an intracranial location. Their rupture is frequent and associated with poor prognosis. A significant proportion of initially unruptured aneurysms result from rupture during the first several days, being more common in intracranial aneurysms. Early specific treatment could potentially lead to better outcomes.