Fire-driven animal evolution in the Pyrocene.

Fire regimes are a major agent of evolution in terrestrial animals. Changing fire regimes and the capacity for rapid evolution in wild animal populations suggests the potential for rapid, fire-driven adaptive animal evolution in the Pyrocene. Fire drives multiple modes of evolutionary change, including stabilizing, directional, disruptive, and fluctuating selection, and can strongly influence gene flow and genetic drift. Ongoing and future research in fire-driven animal evolution will benefit from further development of generalizable hypotheses, studies conducted in highly responsive taxa, and linking fire-adapted phenotypes to their underlying genetic basis. A better understanding of evolutionary responses to fire has the potential to positively influence conservation strategies that embrace evolutionary resilience to fire in the Pyrocene.

Does the evolution of ontogenetic niche shifts favour species coexistence? An empirical test in Trinidadian streams.

A major question in ecology is how often competing species evolve to reduce competitive interactions and facilitate coexistence. One untested route for a reduction in competitive interactions is through ontogenetic changes in the trophic niche of one or more of the interacting species. In such cases, theory predicts that two species can coexist if the weaker competitor changes its resource niche to a greater degree with increased body size than the superior competitor. We tested this prediction using stable isotopes that yield information about the trophic position (δ15 N) and carbon source (δ13 C) of two coexisting fish species: Trinidadian guppies Poecilia reticulata and killifish Rivulus hartii. We examined fish from locations representing three natural community types: (1) where killifish and guppies live with predators, (2) where killifish and guppies live without predators and (3) where killifish are the only fish species. We also examined killifish from communities in which we had introduced guppies, providing a temporal sequence of the community changes following the transition from a killifish only to a killifish-guppy community. We found that killifish, which are the weaker competitor, had a much larger ontogenetic niche shift in trophic position than guppies in the community where competition is most intense (killifish-guppy only). This result is consistent with theory for size-structured populations, which predicts that these results should lead to stable coexistence of the two species. Comparisons with other communities containing guppies, killifish and predators and ones where killifish live by themselves revealed that these results are caused primarily by a loss of ontogenetic niche changes in guppies, even though they are the stronger competitor. Comparisons of these natural communities with communities in which guppies were translocated into sites containing only killifish showed that the experimental communities were intermediate between the natural killifish-guppy community and the killifish-guppy-predator community, suggesting contemporary evolution in these ontogenetic trophic differences. These results provide comparative evidence for ontogenetic niche shifts in contributing to species coexistence and comparative and experimental evidence for evolutionary or plastic changes in ontogenetic niche shifts following the formation of new communities.

Differential habitat use and recruitment facilitate coexistence in a community with intraguild predation.

Theory predicts that species engaged in intraguild predation (IGP) can only coexist under limited conditions, yet IGP is common in nature. Habitat complexity can promote coexistence by reducing encounter rates, but little information is known about the contribution of differential habitat use. We hypothesized that differential use of alternative habitats promotes coexistence of an intraguild (IG) predator and prey. We evaluated predictions of this hypothesis with an experimental introduction of an IG predator fish into four natural stream communities that previously contained only the IG prey fish. We monitored the development of this IGP over the course of four years to determine how each species used alternative stream habitats. The introduced species preferred pool habitats while the resident species was more evenly distributed across pools and riffles. The density of the resident decreased in the pool habitat preferred by the invader, accompanied by a local increase in the mean of the resident size distribution. Selective predation by the invader on hatchling residents appears to impact the residents' demographic response. The continued recruitment of resident juveniles in riffles, where the introduced species is rare, facilitated the persistence of the resident. This differential use of habitats was not accompanied by a change in the resident's growth rates in either habitat. Our results showed that differential habitat selection and recruitment promoted persistence during an invasion involving IGP, which helps to bridge the gap between theory and observation in explaining coexistence in IGP systems.

Estimating large carnivore populations at global scale based on spatial predictions of density and distribution - Application to the jaguar (Panthera onca).

Broad scale population estimates of declining species are desired for conservation efforts. However, for many secretive species including large carnivores, such estimates are often difficult. Based on published density estimates obtained through camera trapping, presence/absence data, and globally available predictive variables derived from satellite imagery, we modelled density and occurrence of a large carnivore, the jaguar, across the species' entire range. We then combined these models in a hierarchical framework to estimate the total population. Our models indicate that potential jaguar density is best predicted by measures of primary productivity, with the highest densities in the most productive tropical habitats and a clear declining gradient with distance from the equator. Jaguar distribution, in contrast, is determined by the combined effects of human impacts and environmental factors: probability of jaguar occurrence increased with forest cover, mean temperature, and annual precipitation and declined with increases in human foot print index and human density. Probability of occurrence was also significantly higher for protected areas than outside of them. We estimated the world's jaguar population at 173,000 (95% CI: 138,000-208,000) individuals, mostly concentrated in the Amazon Basin; elsewhere, populations tend to be small and fragmented. The high number of jaguars results from the large total area still occupied (almost 9 million km2) and low human densities (< 1 person/km2) coinciding with high primary productivity in the core area of jaguar range. Our results show the importance of protected areas for jaguar persistence. We conclude that combining modelling of density and distribution can reveal ecological patterns and processes at global scales, can provide robust estimates for use in species assessments, and can guide broad-scale conservation actions.

Estimating abundance and density of Amur tigers along the Sino-Russian border.

As an apex predator the Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica) could play a pivotal role in maintaining the integrity of forest ecosystems in Northeast Asia. Due to habitat loss and harvest over the past century, tigers rapidly declined in China and are now restricted to the Russian Far East and bordering habitat in nearby China. To facilitate restoration of the tiger in its historical range, reliable estimates of population size are essential to assess effectiveness of conservation interventions. Here we used camera trap data collected in Hunchun National Nature Reserve from April to June 2013 and 2014 to estimate tiger density and abundance using both maximum likelihood and Bayesian spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) methods. A minimum of 8 individuals were detected in both sample periods and the documentation of marking behavior and reproduction suggests the presence of a resident population. Using Bayesian SECR modeling within the 11 400 km(2) state space, density estimates were 0.33 and 0.40 individuals/100 km(2) in 2013 and 2014, respectively, corresponding to an estimated abundance of 38 and 45 animals for this transboundary Sino-Russian population. In a maximum likelihood framework, we estimated densities of 0.30 and 0.24 individuals/100 km(2) corresponding to abundances of 34 and 27, in 2013 and 2014, respectively. These density estimates are comparable to other published estimates for resident Amur tiger populations in the Russian Far East. This study reveals promising signs of tiger recovery in Northeast China, and demonstrates the importance of connectivity between the Russian and Chinese populations for recovering tigers in Northeast China.

Examining Temporal Sample Scale and Model Choice with Spatial Capture-Recapture Models in the Common Leopard Panthera pardus.

Many large carnivores occupy a wide geographic distribution, and face threats from habitat loss and fragmentation, poaching, prey depletion, and human wildlife-conflicts. Conservation requires robust techniques for estimating population densities and trends, but the elusive nature and low densities of many large carnivores make them difficult to detect. Spatial capture-recapture (SCR) models provide a means for handling imperfect detectability, while linking population estimates to individual movement patterns to provide more accurate estimates than standard approaches. Within this framework, we investigate the effect of different sample interval lengths on density estimates, using simulations and a common leopard (Panthera pardus) model system. We apply Bayesian SCR methods to 89 simulated datasets and camera-trapping data from 22 leopards captured 82 times during winter 2010-2011 in Royal Manas National Park, Bhutan. We show that sample interval length from daily, weekly, monthly or quarterly periods did not appreciably affect median abundance or density, but did influence precision. We observed the largest gains in precision when moving from quarterly to shorter intervals. We therefore recommend daily sampling intervals for monitoring rare or elusive species where practicable, but note that monthly or quarterly sample periods can have similar informative value. We further develop a novel application of Bayes factors to select models where multiple ecological factors are integrated into density estimation. Our simulations demonstrate that these methods can help identify the "true" explanatory mechanisms underlying the data. Using this method, we found strong evidence for sex-specific movement distributions in leopards, suggesting that sexual patterns of space-use influence density. This model estimated a density of 10.0 leopards/100 km2 (95% credibility interval: 6.25-15.93), comparable to contemporary estimates in Asia. These SCR methods provide a guide to monitor and observe the effect of management interventions on leopards and other species of conservation interest.

Consequences of a refuge for the predator-prey dynamics of a wolf-elk system in Banff National Park, Alberta, Canada.

Refugia can affect predator-prey dynamics via movements between refuge and non-refuge areas. We examine the influence of a refuge on population dynamics in a large mammal predator-prey system. Wolves (Canis lupus) have recolonized much of their former range in North America, and as a result, ungulate prey have exploited refugia to reduce predation risk with unknown impacts on wolf-prey dynamics. We examined the influence of a refuge on elk (Cervus elaphus) and wolf population dynamics in Banff National Park. Elk occupy the Banff townsite with little predation, whereas elk in the adjoining Bow Valley experience higher wolf predation. The Banff refuge may influence Bow Valley predator-prey dynamics through source-sink movements. To test this hypothesis, we used 26 years of wolf and elk population counts and the Delayed Rejection Adaptive Metropolis Markov chain Monte Carlo method to fit five predator-prey models: 1) with no source-sink movements, 2) with elk density-dependent dispersal from the refuge to the non-refuge, 3) with elk predation risk avoidance movements from the non-refuge to the refuge, 4) with differential movement rates between refuge and non-refuge, and 5) with short-term, source-sink wolf movements. Model 1 provided the best fit of the data, as measured by Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). In the top model, Banff and Bow Valley elk had median growth rates of 0.08 and 0.03 (95% credibility intervals [CIs]: 0.027-0.186 and 0.001-0.143), respectively, Banff had a median carrying capacity of 630 elk (95% CI: 471.9-2676.9), Bow Valley elk had a median wolf encounter rate of 0.02 (95% CI: 0.013-0.030), and wolves had a median death rate of 0.23 (95% CI: 0.146-0.335) and a median conversion efficiency of 0.07 (95% CI: 0.031-0.124). We found little evidence for potential source-sink movements influencing the predator-prey dynamics of this system. This result suggests that the refuge was isolated from the non-refuge.