Warming and shifts in litter quality drive multiple responses in freshwater detritivore communities.

Aquatic detritivores are highly sensitive to changes in temperature and leaf litter quality caused by increases in atmospheric CO2. While impacts on detritivores are evident at the organismal and population level, the mechanisms shaping ecological communities remain unclear. Here, we conducted field and laboratory experiments to examine the interactive effects of changes in leaf litter quality, due to increasing atmospheric CO2, and warming, on detritivore survival (at both organismal and community levels) and detritus consumption rates. Detritivore community consisted of the collector-gathering Polypedilum (Chironomidae), the scraper and facultative filtering-collector Atalophlebiinae (Leptophlebiidae), and Calamoceratidae (Trichoptera), a typical shredder. Our findings reveal intricate responses across taxonomic levels. At the organismal level, poor-quality leaf litter decreased survivorship of Polypedilum and Atalophlebiinae. We observed taxon-specific responses to warming, with varying effects on growth and consumption rates. Notably, species interactions (competition, facilitation) might have mediated detritivore responses to climate stressors, influencing community dynamics. While poor-quality leaf litter and warming independently affected detritivore larvae abundance of Atalophebiinae and Calamoceratidae, their combined effects altered detritus consumption and emergence of adults of Atalophlebiinae. Furthermore, warming influenced species abundances differently, likely exacerbating intraspecific competition in some taxa while accelerating development in others. Our study underscores the importance of considering complex ecological interactions in predicting the impact of climate change on freshwater ecosystem functioning. Understanding these emergent properties contributes to a better understanding of how detritivore communities may respond to future environmental conditions, providing valuable insights for ecosystem management and conservation efforts.

Precipitation and predation risk alter the diversity and behavior of pollinators and reduce plant fitness.

Biotic and abiotic factors may individually or interactively disrupt plant-pollinator interactions, influencing plant fitness. Although variations in temperature and precipitation are expected to modify the overall impact of predators on plant-pollinator interactions, few empirical studies have assessed if these weather conditions influence anti-predator behaviors and how this context-dependent response may cascade down to plant fitness. To answer this question, we manipulated predation risk (using artificial spiders) in different years to investigate how natural variation in temperature and precipitation may affect diversity (richness and composition) and behavioral (visitation) responses of flower-visiting insects to predation risk, and how these effects influence plant fitness. Our findings indicate that predation risk and an increase in precipitation independently reduced plant fitness (i.e., seed set) by decreasing flower visitation. Predation risk reduced pollinator visitation and richness, and altered species composition of pollinators. Additionally, an increase in precipitation was associated with lower flower visitation and pollinator richness but did not alter pollinator species composition. However, maximum daily temperature did not affect any component of the pollinator assemblage or plant fitness. Our results indicate that biotic and abiotic drivers have different impacts on pollinator behavior and diversity with consequences for plant fitness components. Even small variation in precipitation conditions promotes complex and substantial cascading effects on plants by affecting both pollinator communities and the outcome of plant-pollinator interactions. Tropical communities are expected to be highly susceptible to climatic changes, and these changes may have drastic consequences for biotic interactions in the tropics.

Scenario-modelling for the sustainable management of non-timber forest products in tropical ecosystems / Modelagem de cenários para o manejo sustentável de produtos florestais não-madeireiros em ecossistemas tropicais

Abstract Ecosystems degradation, and consequently biodiversity loss, has severe impacts on people around the world. The Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) is one of the international initiatives that have emerged to inform policy makers and aid decisions to prevent further global biodiversity loss, focusing on the interdependence between natural systems and human culture. IPBES promotes the use of scenarios and modelling approaches as a fundamental tool to advance the understanding of the relationships between drivers of change, Nature's Contributions to People (NCP), and social systems. Local-scale case studies with a system approach demonstrating how current knowledge can be used to inform decision-making are still scarce. Here, we present a comprehensive conceptual model and a series of four scenarios under different policies for shea tree species management, as a case-study of applying systems thinking and the NCP concept to a local-scale socio-ecological system. We first characterized the central processes, NCP, drivers and pressures affecting the shea tree system, to investigate the impacts of the multiple uses of the shea tree species on the system as a whole. We then described potential policy options, developed four scenarios, and evaluated them by a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN). We predicted qualitative outcomes of the proposed scenarios: Business-as-usual (BAU), "Conservation and fair trade", "Agroforestry and fair trade" and "Industrial development". We found that the scenarios focussing on conservation, fair trade and agroforestry, can improve the conservation status of shea trees, and enhance wellbeing in the local communities. In this case study, we demonstrate that the development of a comprehensive conceptual model at a local scale can be a useful exercise to identify opportunities for effective policy strategies and social innovation. The shea tree case study can provide an example for modelling non-timber forest products in other regions around the world that face similar drivers and pressures. Species for which this model could be adapted include Central and South American species such as the Brazilian nut (Bertholletia excelsa), cocoa (Theobroma cacao), andiroba (Carapa guianensis), açai (Euterpe oleracea) and the wax palm (Ceroxylon quindiuense). The model and workflow applied here may thus be used to understand similar socio-ecological systems with local and international economic value across the Neotropical region.

Resumo A degradação dos ecossistemas e sua consequente perda de biodiversidade apresentam graves impactos sobre as pessoas em todo o mundo. A Plataforma Intergovernamental de Biodiversidade e Serviços Ecossistêmicos (IPBES) é uma das iniciativas internacionais que surgiram para informar tomadores de decisão e o desenvolvimento de políticas para evitar mais perdas globais de biodiversidade, com foco na interdependência entre sistemas naturais e a cultura humana. O IPBES promove o uso de cenários futuros e abordagens de modelagem como uma ferramenta fundamental para avançar no entendimento das relações entre fatores motivadores de mudança (vetores), as Contribuições da Natureza para as Pessoas (NCP) e sistemas sociais. Estudos de caso em escala local com uma abordagem de sistemas mostrando como o conhecimento atual pode ser usado para informar a tomada de decisão ainda são poucos. Neste trabalho, apresentamos um modelo conceitual abrangente e um conjunto de quatro cenários sob diferentes políticas para o manejo da árvore de karité, como estudo de caso para a aplicação de uma abordagem de sistemas e do conceito de NCP em um sistema socioecológico em escala local. Primeiro nós caracterizamos os processos centrais, os NCP, e os vetores e pressões que afetam o sistema da árvore de karité, para então, investigar os impactos dos múltiplos usos da espécie no sistema como um todo. Em seguida, descrevemos opções de políticas possíveis, a partir das quais desenvolvemos quatro cenários e os avaliamos por Redes Bayesianas baseadas em Crenças (BBN). Nós avaliamos os resultados qualitativos dos quatro cenários de manejo propostos: "business-as-usual" (BAU), "Conservação e Fair Trade", "Agrofloresta e Fair Trade", e "Desenvolvimento Agroindustrial". Verificamos que os cenários que incluíam medidas de conservação e comércio justo, assim como o que previa práticas agroflorestais indicaram potenciais melhorias no status de conservação das árvores de karité e aprimoramento do bem-estar das comunidades locais. Neste estudo de caso, demonstramos que o desenvolvimento de um modelo conceitual mais completo na escala local pode ser útil na identificação de oportunidades para a proposição de estratégias políticas efetivas e inovação social. O estudo de caso da árvore de karité pode fornecer um exemplo de modelagem de produtos florestais não-madeireiros para outras regiões do mundo que enfrentam vetores de mudança e pressões semelhantes. As espécies para as quais esse modelo pode ser adaptado incluem espécies da América Central e do Sul, como a castanha-do-brasil (Bertholletia excelsa), cacau (Theobroma cacao), andiroba (Carapa guianensis), açaí (Euterpe oleracea) e a palma da cera (Ceroxylon quindiuense). O modelo e a proposta de trabalho aplicados aqui podem, portanto, ser usados para entender sistemas socio-ecológicos semelhantes com espécies de valor econômico local e internacional em toda a região neotropical.