Adapting an Atmospheric Dispersion Model to Assess the Risk of Windborne Transmission of Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome Virus between Swine Farms.

Modeling the windborne transmission of aerosolized pathogens is challenging. We adapted an atmospheric dispersion model (ADM) to simulate the windborne dispersion of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSv) between swine farms. This work focuses on determining ADM applicable parameter values for PRRSv through a literature and expert opinion-based approach. The parameters included epidemiological features of PRRSv, characteristics of the aerosolized particles, and survival of aerosolized virus in relation to key meteorological features. A case study was undertaken to perform a sensitivity analysis on key parameters. Farms experiencing ongoing PRRSv outbreaks were assigned as particle emitting sources. The wind data from the North American Mesoscale Forecast System was used to simulate dispersion. The risk was estimated semi-quantitatively based on the median daily deposition of particles and the distance to the closest emitting farm. Among the parameters tested, the ADM was most sensitive to the number of particles emitted, followed by the model runtime, and the release height was the least sensitive. Farms within 25 km from an emitting farm were at the highest risk; with 53.66% being within 10 km. An ADM-based risk estimation of windborne transmission of PRRSv may inform optimum time intervals for air sampling, plan preventive measures, and aid in ruling out the windborne dispersion in outbreak investigations.

Sero-Monitoring of Horses Demonstrates the Equivac® HeV Hendra Virus Vaccine to Be Highly Effective in Inducing Neutralising Antibody Titres.

Hendra virus (HeV) is a high consequence zoonotic pathogen found in Australia. The HeV vaccine was developed for use in horses and provides a One Health solution to the prevention of human disease. By protecting horses from infection, the vaccine indirectly protects humans as well, as horses are the only known source of infection for humans. The sub-unit-based vaccine, containing recombinant HeV soluble G (sG) glycoprotein, was released by Pfizer Animal Health (now Zoetis) for use in Australia at the end of 2012. The purpose of this study was to collate post-vaccination serum neutralising antibody titres as a way of assessing how the vaccine has been performing in the field. Serum neutralization tests (SNTs) were performed on serum samples from vaccinated horses submitted to the laboratory by veterinarians. The SNT results have been analysed, together with age, dates of vaccinations, date of sampling and location. Results from 332 horses formed the data set. Provided horses received at least three vaccinations (consisting of two doses 3-6 weeks apart, and a third dose six months later), horses had high neutralising titres (median titre for three or more vaccinations was 2048), and none tested negative.

Production diseases in smallholder pig systems in rural Lao PDR.

Pigs in Lao People's Democratic Republic are important for income and food security, particularly in rural households. The majority of pigs are reared in smallholder systems, which may challenge the implementation of any disease control strategies. To investigate risk factors for pig production diseases in such farming systems in the country a serological survey was conducted during 2011. A total of 647 pigs were sampled, accounting for 294 households in Luang Prabang and 353 in Savannakhet province representing upland and lowland, respectively. The results demonstrated that pigs in Lao PDR had antibodies against erysipelas (45.2%), CSF (11.2%), PRRS (8.6%), FMD O (17.2%) and FMD Asia 1, (3.5%). Differences in the housing systems influenced disease risk, for example, penned pigs had reduced odds of FMD and CSF, compared to those in scavenger systems. Pigs owned by farms using a sanaam (a communal area where pigs are kept for some time of the year) had 3.93 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.09-14.7) times the odds of having pigs seropositive for FMD. Farms on which sudden piglet deaths had been experienced were more likely to have pigs seropositive for FMD O and erysipelas. These diseases constrain the development of village farming and the wider livestock industry due to their impact on productivity and trade. Vaccination coverage for FMD and CSF was low and there was a lack of national funding for livestock disease control at the time of the study. Further investigation into sustainable low-cost control strategies for these pathogens is warranted.

Sellers' Revisited: A Big Data Reassessment of Historical Outbreaks of Bluetongue and African Horse Sickness due to the Long-Distance Wind Dispersion of Culicoides Midges.

The possibility that outbreaks of bluetongue (BT) and African horse sickness (AHS) might occur via long-distance wind dispersion (LDWD) of their insect vector (Culicoides spp.) was proposed by R. F. Sellers in a series of papers published between 1977 and 1991. These investigated the role of LDWD by means of visual examination of the wind direction of synoptic weather charts. Based on the hypothesis that simple wind direction analysis, which does not allow for wind speed, might have led to spurious conclusions, we reanalyzed six of the outbreak scenarios described in Sellers' papers. For this reanalysis, we used a custom-built Big Data application ("TAPPAS") which couples a user-friendly web-interface with an established atmospheric dispersal model ("HYSPLIT"), thus enabling more sophisticated modeling than was possible when Sellers undertook his analyzes. For the two AHS outbreaks, there was strong support from our reanalysis of the role of LDWD for that in Spain (1966), and to a lesser degree, for the outbreak in Cyprus (1960). However, for the BT outbreaks, the reassessments were more complex, and for one of these (western Turkey, 1977) we could discount LDWD as the means of direct introduction of the virus. By contrast, while the outbreak in Cyprus (1977) showed LDWD was a possible means of introduction, there is an apparent inconsistency in that the outbreaks were localized while the dispersion events covered much of the island. For Portugal (1956), LDWD from Morocco on the dates suggested by Sellers is very unlikely to have been the pathway for introduction, and for the detection of serotype 2 in Florida (1982), LDWD from Cuba would require an assumption of a lengthy survival time of the midges in the air column. Except for western Turkey, the BT reanalyses show the limitation of LDWD modeling when used by itself, and indicates the need to integrate susceptible host population distribution (and other covariate) data into the modeling process. A further refinement, which will become increasingly important to assess LDWD, will be the use of virus and vector genome sequence data collected from potential source and the incursion sites.

Endemicity of Zoonotic Diseases in Pigs and Humans in Lowland and Upland Lao PDR: Identification of Socio-cultural Risk Factors.

In Lao People's Democratic Republic pigs are kept in close contact with families. Human risk of infection with pig zoonoses arises from direct contact and consumption of unsafe pig products. This cross-sectional study was conducted in Luang Prabang (north) and Savannakhet (central-south) Provinces. A total of 59 villages, 895 humans and 647 pigs were sampled and serologically tested for zoonotic pathogens including: hepatitis E virus (HEV), Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) and Trichinella spiralis; In addition, human sera were tested for Taenia spp. and cysticercosis. Seroprevalence of zoonotic pathogens in humans was high for HEV (Luang Prabang: 48.6%, Savannakhet: 77.7%) and T. spiralis (Luang Prabang: 59.0%, Savannakhet: 40.5%), and lower for JEV (around 5%), Taenia spp. (around 3%) and cysticercosis (Luang Prabang: 6.1, Savannakhet 1.5%). Multiple correspondence analysis and hierarchical clustering of principal components was performed on descriptive data of human hygiene practices, contact with pigs and consumption of pork products. Three clusters were identified: Cluster 1 had low pig contact and good hygiene practices, but had higher risk of T. spiralis. Most people in cluster 2 were involved in pig slaughter (83.7%), handled raw meat or offal (99.4%) and consumed raw pigs' blood (76.4%). Compared to cluster 1, cluster 2 had increased odds of testing seropositive for HEV and JEV. Cluster 3 had the lowest sanitation access and had the highest risk of HEV, cysticercosis and Taenia spp. Farmers which kept their pigs tethered (as opposed to penned) and disposed of manure in water sources had 0.85 (95% CI: 0.18 to 0.91) and 2.39 (95% CI: 1.07 to 5.34) times the odds of having pigs test seropositive for HEV, respectively. The results have been used to identify entry-points for intervention and management strategies to reduce disease exposure in humans and pigs, informing control activities in a cysticercosis hyper-endemic village.

Absence of MERS-CoV antibodies in feral camels in Australia: Implications for the pathogen's origin and spread.

Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) infections continue to be a serious emerging disease problem internationally with well over 1000 cases and a major outbreak outside of the Middle East region. While the hypothesis that dromedary camels are the likely major source of MERS-CoV infection in humans is gaining acceptance, conjecture continues over the original natural reservoir host(s) and specifically the role of bats in the emergence of the virus. Dromedary camels were imported to Australia, principally between 1880 and 1907 and have since become a large feral population inhabiting extensive parts of the continent. Here we report that during a focussed surveillance study, no serological evidence was found for the presence of MERS-CoV in the camels in the Australian population. This finding presents various hypotheses about the timing of the emergence and spread of MERS-CoV throughout populations of camels in Africa and Asia, which can be partially resolved by testing sera from camels from the original source region, which we have inferred was mainly northwestern Pakistan. In addition, we identify bat species which overlap (or neighbour) the range of the Australian camel population with a higher likelihood of carrying CoVs of the same lineage as MERS-CoV. Both of these proposed follow-on studies are examples of "proactive surveillance", a concept that has particular relevance to a One Health approach to emerging zoonotic diseases with a complex epidemiology and aetiology.