Coeliac Disease and Microscopic Colitis: The Largest Study Assessing Prognosis and Risk of Hospital Admission.

Microscopic colitis (MC) and coeliac disease (CD) are common associated gastrointestinal conditions. We present the largest study assessing hospitalisation in patients with MC and the effect of a concomitant diagnosis of CD. Data were retrospectively collected between January 2007 and December 2021 from all patients diagnosed with MC and compared to a database of patients with only CD. In total, 892 patients with MC (65% female, median age 65 years (IQR: 54-74 years) were identified, with 6.4% admitted to hospital due to a flare of MC. Patients admitted were older (76 vs. 65 years, p < 0.001) and presented with diarrhoea (87.7%), abdominal pain (26.3%), and acute kidney injury (17.5%). Treatment was given in 75.9% of patients, including intravenous fluids (39.5%), steroids (20.9%), and loperamide (16.3%). Concomitant CD was diagnosed in 3.3% of patients and diagnosed before MC (57 versus 64 years, p < 0.001). Patients with both conditions were diagnosed with CD later than patients with only CD (57 years versus 44 years, p < 0.001). In conclusion, older patients are at a higher risk of hospitalisation due to MC, and this is seen in patients with a concomitant diagnosis of CD too. Patients with MC are diagnosed with CD later than those without.

Earthquake forecasting from paleoseismic records.

Forecasting large earthquakes along active faults is of critical importance for seismic hazard assessment. Statistical models of recurrence intervals based on compilations of paleoseismic data provide a forecasting tool. Here we compare five models and use Bayesian model-averaging to produce time-dependent, probabilistic forecasts of large earthquakes along 93 fault segments worldwide. This approach allows better use of the measurement errors associated with paleoseismic records and accounts for the uncertainty around model choice. Our results indicate that although the majority of fault segments (65/93) in the catalogue favour a single best model, 28 benefit from a model-averaging approach. We provide earthquake rupture probabilities for the next 50 years and forecast the occurrence times of the next rupture for all the fault segments. Our findings suggest that there is no universal model for large earthquake recurrence, and an ensemble forecasting approach is desirable when dealing with paleoseismic records with few data points and large measurement errors.