Structural Integrity, Flexibility, and Timing: Introduction to a Special Issue on Resilience.

This introduction to a special issue of Nonlinear Dynamics, Psychology and Life Sciences on the topic of resilience discusses the contributing articles in terms of their flexibility in methods, models, scale, and contexts combined with their integrity in shared theoretical understanding and generative knowledge. The ubiquity of resilience is discussed, a feature of potentially any living or non-living system and substance. This breadth calls for a flexible set of models and methods, along with the quest for integrative theory to make resilience science more resilient. Since resilience involves the ability of a substance or system to persist, to repair or recover, and to evolve, any common theory would consider structural integrity (the ability to hold together), flexibility (the ability to adjust and return), time and timing. Nonlinear dynamical systems theory is proposed as the only scientific perspective capable of building this sort of common knowledge of a ubiquitous process involving these specific features. The synopsis of each article's contribution to the issue includes an analysis of the flexibility the article adds in terms of models, methods, scale, and applied context, along with the theoretical integrity produced with respect to these common features of resilient processes: flexibility, integrity, time, and timing.

Who Syncs? Elasticity-Rigidity in Dynamic Decision Teams.

Autonomic synchrony plays an important role in work team performance where coordinated actions are required on the part of the team members. The present study examined the connection between nine psychological variables that represent types of elasticity-rigidity, which are closely related to adaptability and autonomic synchrony, within teams playing a computer game that involved dynamic decision making. Elasticity-rigidity variables were first identified as part of the dynamics that transpire between workload and performance. They are used here to determine why some individuals within teams synchronize with teammates more strongly than others. The driver-empath model of group synchrony produces a single metric of synchrony (SE) within a team of three or more members. Driver scores, which are produced from the algorithm, indicate each person's total influence on the other group members. Empath scores, which are also produced from the SE algorithm, indicate a person's total receptivity to all other group members. It was found that coping flexibility, monitoring, emotional intelligence, and solving anagrams significantly predicted empath scores in the earlier part of the session. Anxiety and monitoring significantly predicted empath scores in the later part of the session. There were no significant correlations between driver scores and elasticity-rigidity variables.

Elasticity, Rigidity, and Resilience in Occupational Contexts.

The necessity for resilient responses in occupational contexts often takes the form of unusual levels of workload that could have a dramatic impact on the performance of individuals or teams. Empirical research with the cusp catastrophe model for cognitive workload and performance, which are reviewed here, has isolated a class of variables known as elasticity versus rigidity that act as bifurcation variables in the process. Elasticity-rigidity variables derive from five sources â affect, cognitive coping strategies, conscientiousness and impulsivity, fluid intelligence, and the degrees of flexibility that are afforded by the task itself. The resilience process for work teams presents additional workload demands requiring team coordination and communication efforts and back-up, redundancy, behaviors. Finer-grained nonlinear time series analyses of performance and its surrounding events revealed that team self-efficacy varies chaotically as the team responds to a series of challenging events. The two types of dynamics combine to produce chaotic hysteresis in team performance.

Nonlinearity in Economics and Social Science: The Outstanding Contributions of John Barkley Rosser Jr.

The pioneering work of John Barkley Rosser Jr. (1948-2023) in various subfields of economics emphasizes the fact that economic and social phenomena are inherently nonlinear and often discontinuous. From this standpoint, Barkley has contributed substantially to a paradigm shift in economic theory and modelling. Both his influential research work and his unceasing survey work on different approaches and schools of thought in economics and social science, carried out through the lens of complexity theory, have succeeded to develop a broader view on economic thinking and continue to inspire many researchers worldwide. The articles in this issue cover a number of research areas and themes that were central to Barkley's work, from technological progress to evolutionary competition between firms, from regional science to income inequality, from environmental economics to more general macroeconomic themes, such as bubbles and crashes, financial instabilities and policy issues.

Cusp Catastrophe Models for Cognitive Workload and Fatigue for Teams Making Dynamic Decisions.

This study evaluated cusp models of workload and fatigue experienced by teams on a dynamic decision making task. Cognitive workload is the amount of information that a person is required to process in a given way in a fixed amount of time. Fatigue, which is captured by a work curve or a cubic polynomial function, is the loss of work capacity that is produced by an extended amount of time spent on a particular cognitive or physical task. In this experiment, 32 groups of three, four or five members (136 individuals) played two matches of a first-person shooter computer game, and completed subjective measures of workload and cognitive measures of elasticity versus rigidity. For the workload cusp models with elasticity-rigidity components, the bifurcation in performance levels occurred when teams expressed greater emotional intelligence, anxiety, levels of fluid intelligence, coping flexibility, cognitive flexibility, and were more decisive (R2=.54-.56, linear alternative, .09-.23). For workload cusp models assessing subjective ratings of workload, bifurcation occurred with groups who reported greater levels of performance demand and effort required (R2=.51, linear alternative, .20). For fatigue cusp models, bifurcation occurred for groups that played fewer rounds of the game before winning or losing the match, or came from the smaller-sized groups, which were supplemented by computer-generated agents (R2=.66-.67, linear alternative, .21-.68). Results supported the general-ization of the cusp models for workload and fatigue to situations requiring teamwork in dynamic decision making environments. The study also raised new questions about the role of autonomic synchrony in the workload or fatigue processes and similarity of the dynamics of human-autonomy teams compared to all-human teams.

Team Situation Awareness, Cohesion, and Autonomic Synchrony 2: Group-level Effects and their Combined Influence on Team Performance.

Situation awareness (SA) is a mental state that is instrumental to performance of complex dynamic tasks. SA within teams is thought to be supported by favorable social conditions within the team. The present study was organized in two parts: (a) causal relationships among SA, group cohesion, and autonomic synchrony, the latter being a fundamentally nonlinear process, and (b) the combined impact of the three variables on performance in a dynamic decisions task. Experimental conditions assessed changes in task difficulty, group size, and method of obtaining SA measures. Participants were 136 undergraduates organized into 32 teams of three to five members engaged in two matches of a first-person shooter computer game. They completed self-report measures of cohesion and SA. Synchrony was determined through time series analysis of electrodermal responses using the driver-empath framework. ANOVA results showed that cohesion and SA improved over the two matches, and SA was better in smaller groups during the second match. Synchrony was stronger in larger groups. Granger regression indicated no causal or circular relationship between SA and cohesion. Synchrony had a small positive effect on cohesion during the first match. SA had a strong negative impact on synchrony early on and dissipated afterwards. The best performing teams during the first match were those that: were larger, were measured for SA without pausing the simulation, were less synchronized, showed more accurate SA, and reported stronger cohesion. The study opens new questions concerning the role of synchrony in volatile situations and the role of automated team members operating alongside humans.

Approach and Avoidance Coping Dynamics during the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Approach-avoidance conflicts were one of the earliest applications of catastrophe theory. Empirical studies evaluating the cusp catastrophe model for approach-avoidance dynamics have only started to appear recently, however. The present study reviews the extant research and expands the concept to approach and avoidance coping styles. Research participants were 333 adults from the general population recruited through Amazon Mechanical Turk. They completed measures of psychological symptoms, quality of life (QOL), approach and avoidance coping styles, and COVID-related stress. Cusp models for symptoms (R2 = .84) and QOL (R2 = .89) illustrated approach and avoidance functioning as bifurcation gradients for both psychological symptoms and QOL. Both models provided more accurate representations of the data than the linear alternatives (R2 = .54 and .24 respectively), thus providing further support for the cusp dynamics. The cusp catastrophe model has extensive applicability to approach-avoidance behaviors. There was greater variability (hysteresis) in outcomes for people who used fewer coping strategies of either the approach or avoidance types.

Team Situation Awareness, Cohesion, and Autonomic Synchrony.

OBJECTIVE: This study evaluated the causal relationships among situation awareness (SA), cohesion, and autonomic synchrony (SE) within teams. SA is often a team effort and should be more accurate in better-functioning teams. BACKGROUND: Cohesive teams perform better overall, although the relationship appears reciprocal; the relationship to SA has not been considered previously. SE is a collective neurocognitive activity that has been connected to team coordination, communication, and performance in some circumstances. METHOD: In this experiment, 71 undergraduates, organized into 16 teams, played two matches of a first-person shooter computer game and completed self-report measures of cohesion and SA. SE was determined through time series analysis of electrodermal responses using the driver-empath framework. RESULTS: Empaths and those who came from more synchronized teams reported less cohesion in the team. Granger causality regression showed reciprocal relations among SA, SE, and cohesion that were both positive and negative after controlling for match difficulty. CONCLUSION: The cohesion-SA relationship is similar to the reciprocal cohesion-performance relationship. SE plays an important and independent role in both the social and cognitive aspects of team behavior. It is possible, furthermore, that individuals who are more attuned to their co-workers reported a more accurate, and less obliging, social situation. APPLICATION: Results are applicable to situations requiring teamwork in a dynamic environment.

The Relative Influence of Drivers and Empaths on Team Synchronization.

To further the understanding of how to build or reduce synchrony in a work team, we examined two principles for defining the optimal condition to produce or limit synchrony: (a) the empath-driver ratio (relative strength of the stronger influencer compared to the receptive strength of any member in the group), and (b) the balance between autocorrelated autonomic arousal (degree to which members' signals are independent of other group members) and the degree of influence that transfers from each group member to other group members. In study 1, we employed a series of computational simulations designed to manipulate the four variables. The results indicated that there is a four-way balance between driver strength, empath strength, autocorrelational and transfer effects among team members. The relationship between the synchronization coefficient and the empath-driver ratio was moderated by whether the group adopted a network structure for group problem solving or command-and-control. In study 2 we analyzed autonomic arousal (electrodermal response) in four teams of five participants playing a first-person shooter computer game. The correlation between the synchronization coefficient and the empath-driver ratio was 0.280 (p < .001) based on 64 pairs of observations. The relationship was moderated by both the network structure and the statistical model that one adopted to analyze dyadic relationships within the group. The implications of these relationships for a growing theory of team synchrony are discussed.

A Comparison of Four Dyadic Synchronization Models.

Synchronization is a special case of self-organization in which one can observe close mimicry in behavior of the system components. Synchrony in body movements, autonomic arousal, and EEG activity among human individuals has attracted considerable attention for their possible roles in social interaction. This article is specifically concerned with autonomic synchrony and finding the best model for the dyadic relationships, with regard to both theoretical and empirical accuracy, that could be extrapolated to synchrony levels for groups and teams of three or more people. The four models that are compared in this study have different theoretical origins: the two-variable linear regression function, a three-parameter nonlinear regression function, the logistic map function stated in polynomial form, and the logistic map function stated as an exponential regression structure. The data for this study were electrodermal responses collected from a team of four people engaged in an emergency response simulation that produced 12 dyadic time series. Results shows strong levels of fit between the data and all four models, although there were significant differences among them. Further research directions point toward finding conditions that favor one model over another and exploring other possible nonlinear structures.

Autonomic Synchronization, Leadership Emergence, and the Roles of Drivers and Empaths.

Synchronization of autonomic arousal levels within dyads and larger teams has been associated with several types of social-behavioral outcome. One previous study reported greater physiological influence (brain activity in one area of the parietal lobe associated with verbal activity) of leaders on followers than of followers on leaders; influence was measured pairwise within triadic problem solving groups. The present study explored synchronized autonomic arousal with leadership outcomes in two experiments with group sizes of three to eight members. Drivers, who had the greatest physiological impact on other team members were consistently less like the leader of the group. Empaths, who were the most receptive to autonomic signals from others, were not consistently associated with leadership roles, although they did show sensitivity to team dynamics in their ratings of cognitive and social sources of workload. The tentative conclusion, subject to future research, is that successful leadership requires a balance between the driver and empath orientations.

Cognitive Workload and Fatigue Dynamics in a Chaotic Forecasting Task.

Many real-world tasks require people to forecast chaotic events in order to take adaptive action. This ability is considered rare, and less understood than other cognitive processes. The present study examined how the performance dynamics in a chaotic forecasting task would be affected by stressors such as cognitive workload and fatigue using two cusp catastrophe models. Participants were 147 undergraduates who were shown graphs and brief chaotic number series for which they needed to forecast the next four values. Performance data were complemented by variables known to represent cognitive elasticity versus rigidity, compensatory abilities for fatigue, and NASA TLX ratings of subjective workload. R2 for the workload cusp was .56, which compared favorably to the next best linear alternative model (.12); it contained six bifurcation variables and three measures of workload (asymmetry). R2 for the fatigue cusp was .54, which also compared favorably to the next best linear alternative (.07); it contained one bifurcation variable and two compensatory abilities. The role of field independence as an elasticity variable in the workload model and as a compensatory ability in fatigue was particularly noteworthy. Several elasticity-rigidity variables have now been identified over a series of studies. They appear to be operating in unison to produce a bifurcation effect, and different variables become salient depending on the task. Future research should consider how the ability to forecast chaos and its susceptibility to workload and fatigue carry over to dynamical decisions made while managing a complex system. Key Words.

Autonomic Synchronization under Three Task Conditions and its Impact on Team Performance.

Psychologists have had a long-standing interest in the connections between group processes and team performance. The biopsychosocial perspective has piqued an interest in the connection between team processes and performance and coordinated and synchronized physiological arousal levels among team members. Studies of synchronization in work teams have been stalled by the lack of a metric that captures the total synchronization within teams of three or more people. This study examined how synchronized physiological arousal does in fact connect to team performance and related group process outcomes by utilizing the SE coefficient developed by Guastello and Peressini. Forty-three groups of 3 to 8 participants (total N = 197) participated in a survival simulation. Synchroniza-tion coefficients were produced for three task segments: watching an orientation video together, an individual decision task, and a group decision task. Primary results showed: (a) Synchronization was greater in larger groups across the three task segments. (b) A combination of the three synchronization coefficients - higher during the team task and lower otherwise - was correlated with higher workload ratings for performance demands, greater team dissatisfaction, and lower demands for time-sharing between the individual and the team.

Physiological Synchronization and Subjective Workload in a Competitive Emergency Response Task.

Human dyads and larger teams tend to acquire synchronized movements and autonomic arousal levels while working together or simply socializing. The synchronization of arousal patterns is of theoretical interest for group dynamics because they may add predictive value to the dynamics of group cohesion and team performance. This study examined the four-way relationship among experimental conditions: team size, task difficulty, time pressure (between-subjects) and subsequent experimental sessions (within-subjects). Previously, we have shown these conditions affect subjective ratings of workload that come from individual and group-level sources, synchronization of arousal, and team performance. In an experiment involving an emergency response (ER) simulation, 360 undergraduates, who were wearing electrodermal sensors, were organized into 44 teams of various sizes. Workload was experimentally varied by team size (three, four, seven or eight members), number of opponents (one or two), and time pressure; the latter was introduced sooner or later across two experimental sessions. Results showed that the experimental conditions affected synchronization levels, either at the beginning of a session or in the middle; synchronization and experimental conditions were not directly related to team performance. Subjective group workload ratings of the coordination demand of the task correlated with synchronization at the beginning of a session while team satisfaction was correlated with greater synchrony at the end of a session. The competitive nature of the ER task, as compared to strictly cooperative tasks, could be responsible for the complexity of these empirical relationships.

Cusp catastrophe models for cognitive workload and fatigue in teams.

The use of two cusp catastrophe models has been effective for untangling the effects of cognitive workload, fatigue, and other complications on the performance of individuals. This study is the first to use the two models to separate workload and fatigue effects on team performance. In an experiment involving an emergency response simulation, 360 undergraduates were organized into 44 teams. Workload was varied by team size, number of opponents, and time pressure. The cusp models for workload and fatigue were more accurate for describing trends in team performance criteria compared to linear alternatives. Individual differences in elasticity-rigidity were less important than subjective workload and experimental conditions as control variables. Fluid intelligence within the team was an important compensatory ability in the fatigue model. Results further supported the nonlinear paradigm for the assessment of cognitive workload and fatigue and demonstrated its effectiveness for understanding team phenomena.

Time Granularity, Lag Length, and Down-Sampling Rates for Neurocognitive Data.

Time series analysis, nonlinear or otherwise, requires an appropriate lag length between observations. The choice of lag length is contingent to some extent on whether the source data are under- or over-sampled. For neuro-cognitive data, the time granularity should represent psychologically meaningful units. Automatic methods for determining optimal lag length are not readily available, particularly for potentially oversampled data and if the eventual goal is to compare linear versus nonlinear models in large quantities across experimental conditions. The present study examined the interacting roles of down-sampling rate, natural lag rates, task types, real-time lapse, and lag units on the accuracy of linear and nonlinear (exponential structures) autocor-relational models, starting with electrodermal data sampled at 200 obs/sec. Participants were 197 undergraduates organized into groups of 3-7 people in three sequential task conditions: watching a video that explained the problem situation, an individual mental task, and a group problem-solving task. Results showed that the optimal lag structures came from natural rates of 2 obs/sec at 1 sec lag or 3 obs/sec at 1 lag unit. Results varied modestly across the subtasks such that greater stability occurred when participants watched the video, followed by the group task, followed by the individual task. Nonlinear models were more accurate than ARMA generally, although there were specific experimental conditions in which the reverse was true. Future research across disciplines should investigate optimal lags from a perspective of naturally occurring change processes rate rather than rely on automatic computations.

Autonomic Synchronization, Team Coordination, Participation, and Performance.

The synchronization of autonomic arousal levels within dyads and larger teams has become a potentially important variable in the explanation of team performance and group processes. Synchronization research with groups of three or more members has been challenging because of limited means for quantifying relationships that are more extensive than dyads. This article presents an empirical investigation of group performance and participation using a new synchronization coefficient that is grounded in nonlinear dynamical systems theory. We introduce the concept of a driver, a person with whom the group tends to synchronize the most, and an empath, a person who is most synchronized with other team members. Fifty-five undergraduate research participants, who were organized into 11 groups of three or four participants, played six emergency response simulations against an opponent while generating electrodermal data. Results showed that greater physiological synchronization resulted from better team performance and greater par-ticipation levels. Synchronization was higher for groups of four team members compared to three. Synchronization was also observed between the opponent and team members. Further opportunities for using the synchronization coefficient in group process research are discussed.

Turn Taking, Team Synchronization, and Non-stationarity in Physiological Time Series.

This study investigated the stationarity of electrodermal time series collected in situations where turn taking in human interactions are involved. In this context, the stationarity of the time series is the extent to which a simple model can be used to fit the entire time series. The experiment involved seven participants in an emergency response simulation against one opponent. They generated 48 time series across six simulations, which were split and re-spliced to separate the team's turns and the opponent's turns. Significant differences in R2 coefficients were found for both linear and nonlinear statistical models between experimental conditions, but the difference only amounted to 3% of the accuracy of those models relative to the original data. It was thus concluded that the impact of turn taking on stationarity was a small effect at most. A comparison of synchronization coefficients for the team data, which rely on the collective accuracy of the individual time series models, indicated stronger synchronization during periods when the team was watching the opponent's actions compared to when they took their own turns. It was thus concluded, furthermore, that the common focus of attention prevailed against any non-stationarity that was introduced by turn taking.

Temporal Dynamics of Rituals in Obsessive Compulsive Disorder.

Obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) is characterized by obsessions, defined as intrusive and persistent thoughts, and compulsions, defined as repetitive ritualistic behaviors that attempt to neutralize the anxiety associated with the obsessions. The present study investigated the patterns of symptoms as they occur over time in order to generate new insights about the triggers to symptoms. Fourteen adult participants who met the DSM-5 criteria for OCD completed 7-day logbooks of daily activities including the times when they engaged in compulsive rituals. Orbital Decomposition (ORBDE) was used to extract symptom patterns and revealed a wide range of symptom cycle lengths, some of which were hierarchically organized in time and some were not. Furthermore the results of the ORBDE analysis were logically consistent with those of a previously reported nonlinear regression analysis. Both analytic techniques supported a turbulence model for OCD onset: Combinations of cognition, emotion, and behavioral responses that would occur randomly for nonclinical samples self-organize into deterministic and chaotic patterns for clinical samples. It is speculated that knowledge of the individuals' temporal dynamics could inform effective treatment strategies, allowing a therapist to develop an individualized yet empirically supported treatment plan.