Longitudinal Examination of Which Married Young Women Use Contraception to Delay a First Pregnancy in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, India.

Early marriage and childbearing put young women and their babies at risk of poor health and well-being. This study uses two rounds of longitudinal data from young women ages 15-19 in 2015-2016 and followed in 2018-2019 to determine factors associated with contraceptive use before a first pregnancy among young, married women in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, India. Discrete time hazard models were used to analyze time to first use starting from the month of marriage. Overall, use of contraception prior to a first pregnancy was low in this sample (between 12 to 20% used before a first pregnancy). Young women who reported that someone discussed the importance of delaying a first birth at the time of marriage were significantly more likely to have used a method of family planning (FP) before a first pregnancy than those who did not receive this information. Further, women who discussed FP with their husband before a first pregnancy were more likely to use contraception. Finally, among recently married young women, those who experienced pressure to have a child were less likely to use before a first pregnancy. As young women recognize the advantages of delaying a first birth and adopt FP to meet their needs, social norms around early childbearing will slowly adjust and early use to delay a first pregnancy will become more normative.

Choice of a family planning outlet in urban areas: The role of distance and quality of services in Kenya and Uganda.

Introduction: Quality of care and physical access to health facilities affect facility choice for family planning (FP). These factors may disproportionately impact young contraceptive users. Understanding which components of service quality drive facility choice among contraceptive users of all ages can inform strategies to strengthen FP programming for all potential users of FP. Methods: This study uses data from Population Services International's Consumer's Market for Family Planning (CM4FP) project, to examine drivers of facility choice among female FP users. The data collected from female contraceptive users, the outlet where they obtained their contraceptive method, and the complete set of alternative outlets in select urban areas of Kenya and Uganda were used. We use a mixed logit model, with inverse probability weights to correct for selection into categories of nonuse and missing facility data. We consider results separately for youth (18-24) and women aged 25-49 in both countries. Results: We find that in both countries and across age groups, users were willing to travel further to public outlets and to outlets offering more methods. Other outlet attributes, including signage, pharmacy, stockouts, and provider training, were important to women in certain age groups or country. Discussion: These results shed light on what components of service quality drive outlet choice among young and older users and can inform strategies to strengthen FP programming for all potential users of FP in urban settings.

Does Provider Bias Affect Choice of a Facility for Family Planning Services by Women in Urban Senegal?

Few studies to date have determined the effect of provider bias based on age, parity, and marital status on women's method and facility choice. Using data from women using modern methods in six cities of Senegal and a facility survey that included a facility audit and provider interviews, we undertake conditional logit analyses to determine whether women's choice of a family planning facility is associated with provider bias at the facility, controlling for other facility characteristics (e.g., size, sector, and number of methods available). We find that women bypass facilities where there is greater provider bias to attain their current family planning method. Women also bypass facilities of lower quality. This is the first study to demonstrate the effects of provider bias on women's contraceptive seeking behaviors and suggests the importance of training providers to reduce age and parity bias that affect access to a full range of methods and facilities for all women.

The direct and indirect effects of community beliefs and attitudes on postpartum contraceptive method choice among young women ages 15-24 in Nigeria.

Understanding what factors influence postpartum contraceptive use among young people (ages 15-24 years) is important since this group often has closely spaced and unintended births. Using secondary data gathered for an evaluation of a Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation funded initiative designed to increase modern contraceptive use in select urban areas of Nigeria, we determine the direct and indirect effects of community beliefs and attitudes on adolescent and youth postpartum contraceptive method choice. Our statistical methods control for the endogenous timing of the initiation of sexual activity and the timing and number of births to each respondent by simultaneous estimation of equations for these choices with the choice of postpartum contraceptive method. We find that community beliefs and attitudes have important effects on our primary outcome of postpartum contraceptive use and we quantify the size of both direct and indirect effects on postpartum contraceptive method choice using simulations. The findings from this study can be used to inform programs seeking to increase young women's postpartum contraceptive use for healthy spacing and timing of births.

Associations Among Select State Policies and the Nutritional Quality of Household Packaged Food Purchases in the United States from 2008 Through 2017.

BACKGROUND: Policy interventions are important public health tools because they can reach large numbers of people. State context has been associated with health outcomes, yet few studies have examined the extent to which state-level policies are associated with dietary quality. OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to evaluate whether state policies are associated with the nutritional quality of household packaged food purchases. DESIGN: This observational study used data from Nielsen Homescan, an open-cohort household panel where participants track purchases, and a combination of state-level food and social safety net policy variables from 2008 through 2017. PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING: This study included 615,634 household-year observations in the United States from 2008 through 2017. Household-year observations were excluded in the case that a household did not make a minimum number of purchases and in the case that they had incorrect geographic information. The final analytic sample was 611,719 household-years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Study outcomes included a set of nutrition-related measures of public health interest, including nutrients of concern (eg, sugar, saturated fat, and sodium) and calories from specific food groups (eg, fruits, nonstarchy vegetables, processed meats, mixed dishes, sugar-sweetened beverages, and desserts and snacks). STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: This study used multilevel generalized linear models with state fixed effects on three samples: all households, only households with low income, and only households with low educational attainment. RESULTS: Few significant associations were found between healthy food retail policies and the nutritional quality of purchases, and mixed associations were found between social safety net policies and lower or higher quality packaged food purchases. CONCLUSIONS: Little evidence was found that state policy context in 2008 through 2017 was associated with the quality of packaged food purchases. However, variation in state policies is increasing over time, warranting future research into the relationship between these policies, the quality of packaged food purchases, and the rest of the diet.

The Examination of Diffusion Effects on Modern Contraceptive Use in Nigeria.

This study uses data gathered for an evaluation of a Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation-funded initiative designed to increase modern contraceptive use in select urban areas of Nigeria. When the initiative was conceived, the hope was that any positive momentum in the cities would diffuse to surrounding areas. Using a variety of statistical methods, we study three aspects of diffusion and their effects on modern contraceptive use: spread through mass communications, social learning, and social influence. Using a dynamic causal model, we find strong evidence of social multiplier effects through social learning. The results for social influence and spread through mass communications are promising, but we are unable to identify definitive causal impacts.

Longitudinal examination of changing fertility intentions and behaviors over a four-year period in urban Senegal.

BACKGROUND: Fertility intentions and contraceptive use are often used to demonstrate gaps in programs and policies to meet the contraceptive needs of women and couples. Prior work demonstrated that fertility intentions are fluid and change over a woman's (or couple's) life course with changing marital status, childbearing, and education/employment opportunities. This study uses longitudinal data to better examine the fluidity of women's fertility intentions and disentangle the complex interrelationships between fertility and contraceptive use. METHODS: Using survey data from three time points and three urban sites in Senegal, this study examines how women's fertility intentions and contraceptive use in an earlier period affect pregnancy experience and the intentionality of experienced pregnancies among a sample of 1050 women who were in union at all three time points. We apply correlated random effect longitudinal regression methods to predict a subsequent birth by fertility intentions and modern contraceptive use at an earlier period addressing endogeneity concerns of earlier analyses that only include two time periods. RESULTS: Descriptive results demonstrate some change in fertility desires over time such that 6-8% of women who reported their pregnancy as intended (i.e., wanted to get pregnant at time of pregnancy) reported earlier that they did not want any(more) children. Multivariate analyses demonstrate that women who want to delay or avoid a pregnancy and are using modern contraception are the least likely to get pregnant. Among women who became pregnant, the only factor differentiating whether the pregnancy is reported as intended or unintended (mistimed or unwanted) was prior fertility intention. Women who wanted to delay a pregnancy previously were more likely to report the pregnancy as unintended compared to women who wanted to get pregnant soon. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest some post-hoc rationalization among women who are getting pregnant. Women who say they do not want to get pregnant may be choosing not to use a contraceptive method in this urban Senegal context of high fertility. Programs seeking to reach these women need to consider their complex situations including their fertility intentions, family planning use, and the community norms within which they are reporting these intentions and behaviors.

The caloric and sugar content of beverages purchased at different store-types changed after the sugary drinks taxation in Mexico.

BACKGROUND: Following the 2014 sugary drinks tax implementation in Mexico, promising reduction in the volume of purchases of taxed beverages were observed overall and at different store-types. However, the tax's effects on purchasing patterns of calories and sugar remain unclear. METHODS: Using longitudinal data from Mexican households (n = 7038), we examined changes in volume, calories and total sugar of packaged beverages purchased from 2012 to 2016 overall and by store-type. We used fixed effects models to estimate means for volume, calories, and sugar of households. To address the potential selectivity from households shopping at different stores, we calculated inverse probability weights to model the purchases changes over time by store-type. RESULTS: For taxed beverages, the volume of purchases declined by - 49 ml and -30 ml in the first year and second year post tax (2014 and 2015, respectively), while purchases leveled off in the third year of the tax (2016). Calories and sugar from taxed beverage purchases decreased over time, with the majority of the declines occurring in the first two years post-tax implementation. The volume of untaxed beverage purchases increased, whereas changes in calories and total sugar of untaxed beverages were minimal. Store level purchases of taxed beverages significantly decreased in the first two years post taxation (2014 and to 2015) only in supermarkets and traditional stores. The steepest declines in purchases of taxed beverages in 2014 were observed at supermarkets (- 40 ml or - 45%). The volume of purchases of untaxed beverages increased over time in almost all store-types, while calories and sugar minimally decreased over time. CONCLUSION: Although the Mexican tax on SSBs has lowered the purchases of sugary drinks 3 years after the tax implementation, the tax should be strengthened and store-specific interventions should be implemented to further reduce SSBs purchases in the Mexican population.

On the sustainability of a family planning program in Nigeria when funding ends.

Few studies have examined the sustainability of family planning program outcomes in the post-program period. This article presents the results of a natural experiment where the Nigerian Urban Reproductive Health Initiative Phase I programming ended in early 2015 and Phase II activities continued in a subset of cities. Using data collected in 2015 and 2017, we compare contraceptive ideation and modern family planning use in two cities: Ilorin where program activities concluded in 2015 and Kaduna where program activities continued. The results demonstrate that exposure to program activities decreased in Ilorin but for those individuals reporting continuing exposure, the effect size of exposure on modern family planning use remained the same and was not significantly different from Kaduna. Modern family planning use continued to increase in both cites but at a lower rate than during Phase I. The results are useful for designing family planning programs that sustain beyond the life of the program.

Assessing the sustainability of the Nigerian urban reproductive health initiative facility-level programming: longitudinal analysis of service quality.

BACKGROUND: To date, there is little information on the sustainability of family planning (FP) service quality after completion of a donor-funded program. This paper examines the sustainability of the Nigerian Urban Reproductive Health Initiative (NURHI) program on quality of FP services in two cities: Ilorin, where the program ended in March 2015 and Kaduna where the program continued. METHODS: Data come from three time periods: 2011, before program implementation; 2014, near Phase 1 completion; and 2017, two-years post Phase 1. In 2011, we undertook a facility audit and provider surveys in all public sector facilities in each city as well as all private facilities mentioned as the source for FP or maternal, newborn, and child health services in a 2010 women's household survey. In 2014 and 2017, we returned to the same facilities to undertake the facility audit and provider surveys. Quality is measured from principal component analyses of 30 items from the facility audit and provider surveys. Service use outcomes are measured as the ratio of FP clients (total and new) to the number of reproductive health staff members. Multivariate random effect models are estimated to examine changes in the outcomes over time, between NURHI and non-NURHI facilities and by city. RESULTS: We demonstrate that NURHI facilities had better quality and higher service use than non-NURHI facilities. Further, while quality of services was higher in Ilorin in 2011, by 2014 and three years later (2017), the quality was better in Kaduna where the program continued. In addition, while no difference was found in service utilization between Ilorin and Kaduna in 2014, by 2017, Kaduna had significantly more new FP users than Ilorin. CONCLUSIONS: In Ilorin, quality of services did not continue its strong upward trend after the program ended. Programs need to consider long-term strategies that support continuation of program components post program implementation. This may include ensuring continued training of providers and addressing equipment and commodity stock-outs through system changes rather than specific facility-level changes. The findings from this study can be used to inform future programs seeking to improve quality of FP services in a sustainable manner.

Measurement Error in Discrete Health Facility Choice Models: an Example from Urban Senegal.

We use individual-level health facility choice data from urban Senegal to estimate consumer preferences for facility characteristics related to maternal health services. We find that consumers consider a large number of quality related facility characteristics, as well as travel costs, when making their health facility choice. In contrast to the typical assumption in the literature, our findings indicate that individuals frequently bypass the facility nearest their home. In light of this, we show that the mismeasured data used commonly in the literature produces biased preference estimates; most notably, the literature likely overestimates consumer distaste for travel.

Pathways of Health and Human Capital from Adolescence into Young Adulthood.

Social inequalities in health and human capital are core concerns of sociologists, but little research examines the developmental stage when such inequalities are likely to emerge-the transition to adulthood. With new data and innovative statistical methods we conceptually develop, and empirically operationalize, pathways of physical health and human capital accumulation from adolescence into young adulthood, using an autoregressive cross-lagged structural equation model. Results reveal that pathways of health and human capital accumulate at differential rates across the transition to adulthood; evidence of cross-lagged effects lend support for both social causation and health selection hypotheses. We then apply this model to assess the presence of social inequality in metabolic syndrome-the leading risk factor of cardiovascular disease in the U.S. Findings document social stratification of cardiovascular health that is robust to both observed and unobserved social and health selection mechanisms. We speculate that this social stratification will only increase as this cohort ages.

Association of men's exposure to family planning programming and reported discussion with partner and family planning use: The case of urban Senegal.

BACKGROUND: Family planning programs increasingly aim to encourage men to be involved in women's reproductive health decision-making as well as support men to be active agents of change for their own and the couple's reproductive health needs. This study contributes to this area of work by examining men's exposure to family planning (FP) program activities in urban Senegal and determining whether exposure is associated with reported FP use and discussion of family planning with female partners. METHODS: This study uses data from two cross-sectional surveys of men in four urban sites of Senegal (Dakar, Pikine, Guédiawaye, Mbao). In 2011 and 2015, men ages 15-59 in a random sample of households from study clusters were approached and asked to participate in a survey about their fertility and family planning experiences. These data were used to determine the association between exposure to the Initiative Sénégalaise de Santé Urbaine (in English: Senegal Urban Reproductive Health Initiative) family planning program interventions with men's reported modern family planning use and their reported discussion of FP with their partners. Since data come from the same study clusters at each time period, fixed effects methods at the cluster level allowed us to control for possible program targeting by geographic area. RESULTS: Multivariate models demonstrate that religious leaders speaking favorably about family planning, seeing FP messages on the television, hearing FP messages on the radio, and exposure to community outreach activities with a FP focus (e.g., house to house and community religious dialogues) are associated with reported modern family planning use and discussion of family planning with partners among men in the four urban sites of Senegal. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates that it is possible to reach men with FP program activities in urban Senegal and that these activities are positively associated with reported FP behaviors.

Reaching Urban Female Adolescents at Key Points of Sexual and Reproductive Health Transitions: Evidence from a Longitudinal Study from Kenya.

Urban areas include large numbers of adolescents (ages 15-19) and young adults (ages 20-24) who may have unmet sexual and reproductive health (SRH) needs. Worldwide, adolescents contribute 11% of births, many of which are in low and middle-income countries. This study uses recently collected longitudinal data from urban Kenyan women to examine the association between targeted intervention activities and adolescents' SRH transitions. The focus was on a female adolescent (15-19) sample and their transition to first sex and first pregnancy/birth. Multinomial logistic regression methods were used to examine whether exposure to program activities was associated with delays in transitions. Overall, a high percentage of adolescents were exposed to television activities with family planning messages. About a third were exposed to community events, program posters, or the Shujaaz comic book that included themes related to relationships and positive health outcomes using recognizable characters. Multivariate analyses found that exposure to the Shujaaz comic book was associated with remaining sexually inexperienced and never pregnant at end line. Future programs for urban adolescents should implement interventions that test novel media strategies, like the Shujaaz comic book, that may be more interesting for young people. Innovative strategies are needed to reach female adolescents in urban settings.

Impact of the Urban Reproductive Health Initiative on family planning uptake at facilities in Kenya, Nigeria, and Senegal.

BACKGROUND: The 2012 London Summit on Family Planning set ambitious goals to enable 120 million more women and adolescent girls to use modern contraceptives by 2020. The Urban Reproductive Health Initiative (URHI) was a Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation funded program designed to help contribute to these goals in urban areas in India, Kenya, Nigeria, and Senegal. URHI implemented a range of country-specific demand and supply side interventions, with supply interventions generally focused on improved service quality, provider training, outreach to patients, and commodity stock management. This study uses data collected by the Measurement, Learning & Evaluation (MLE) Project to examine the effectiveness of these supply-side interventions by considering URHI's influence on the number of family planning clients at health facilities over a four-year period in Kenya, Nigeria, and Senegal. METHODS: The analysis used facility audits and provider surveys. Principal-components analysis was used to create country-specific program exposure variables for health facilities. Fixed-effects regression was used to determine whether family planning uptake increased at facilities with higher exposure. Outcomes of interest were the number of new family planning acceptors and the total number of family planning clients per reproductive health care provider in the last year. RESULTS: Higher program component scores were associated with an increase in new family planning acceptors per provider in Kenya (ß = 18, 95% CI = 7-29), Nigeria (ß = 14, 95% CI = 8-20), and Senegal (ß = 7, 95% CI = 3-12). Higher scores were also associated with more family planning clients per provider in Kenya (ß = 31, 95% CI = 7-56) and Nigeria (ß = 26, 95% CI = 15-38), but not in Senegal. CONCLUSIONS: Supply-side interventions have increased the number of new family planning acceptors at facilities in urban Nigeria, Kenya, and Senegal and the overall number of clients in urban Nigeria and Kenya. While tailoring to the local environment, programs seeking to increase family planning use should include components to improve availability and quality of family planning services, which are part of a rights-based approach to family planning programming.

The Senegal urban reproductive health initiative: a longitudinal program impact evaluation.

OBJECTIVES: This paper presents the impact of key components of the Senegal Urban Reproductive Health Initiative, including radio, television, community-based activities, Muslim religious-leader engagement and service quality improvement on modern contraceptive use by all women and the sub-sample of poor women. STUDY DESIGN: This study uses baseline (2011) and endline (2015) longitudinal data from a representative sample of urban women first surveyed in 2011 to examine the impact of the Initiative's demand- and supply-side activities on modern contraceptive use. RESULTS: By endline, there was increased exposure to radio and television programming, religious leaders speaking favorably about contraception, and community-based initiatives. In the same period, modern contraceptive use increased from 16.9% to 22.1% with a slightly larger increase among the poor (16.6% to 24.1%). Multivariate analyses demonstrate that women exposed to community-based activities were more likely to use modern contraception by endline (marginal effect (ME): 5.12; 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.50-7.74) than those not exposed. Further, women living within 1 km of a facility with family planning guidelines were more likely to use (ME: 3.54; 95% CI: 1.88-5.20) than women without a nearby facility with guidelines. Among poor women, community-based activities, radio exposure (ME: 4.21; 95% CI: 0.49-7.93), and living close to program facilities (ME: 4.32; 95% CI: 0.04-8.59) impacted use. CONCLUSIONS: Community-based activities are important for reaching urban women, including poor women, to achieve increased contraceptive use. Radio programming is also an important tool for increasing demand, particularly among poor women. Impacts of other program activities on contraceptive use were modest. IMPLICATIONS: This study demonstrates that community-based activities led to increased modern contraceptive use among all women and poor women in urban Senegal. These findings can inform future programs in urban Senegal and elsewhere in francophone Africa.

The effects of health facility access and quality on family planning decisions in urban Senegal.

Research in developing countries is rarely focused on examining how supply side factors affect family planning decisions due to a lack of facility-level data. When these data exist, analyses tend to focus on rural environments. In this paper, we study the effects that health facility access and quality have on contraceptive use and desired number of children for women in urban Senegal. Unlike related studies focusing on rural environments, we find no evidence that greater access to health facilities and pharmacies increases contraceptive use among urban women. However, we do find that contraceptive use among urban women is higher with greater facility quality. For example, we find that increasing the proportion of pharmacies employing multiple pharmacists from 0% to 50% would increase contraceptive use by 6.0 percentage points, and increasing the proportion of facilities with family planning guidelines/protocols from 50% to 100% would increase use by 2.1 percentage points.

The Effect of the Removal of User Fees for Delivery at Public Health Facilities on Institutional Delivery in Urban Kenya.

Objectives In 2013, Kenya removed delivery fees at public health facilities in an effort to promote equity in access to health services and address high maternal mortality. This study determines the effect of the policy to remove user fees on institutional delivery in a population-based sample of women from urban Kenya. Methods Longitudinal data were collected from a representative sample of 8500 women from five cities in Kenya in 2010 with a follow-up interview in 2014 (response rate 58.9%). Respondents were asked about their most recent birth since 2008 at baseline and 2012 at endline, including the delivery location. Multinomial logistic regression is used, controlling for the temporal time trend and background characteristics, to determine if births which occurred after the national policy change were more likely to occur at a public facility than at home or a private facility. Results Multivariate findings show that women were significantly more likely to deliver at a public facility as compared to a private facility after the policy. Among the poor, the results show that poor women were significantly more likely to deliver in a public facility compared to home or a private facility after policy change. Conclusions for Practice These findings show Kenya's progress towards achieving universal access to delivery services and meeting its national development targets. The removal of delivery fees in the public sector is leading to increased use of facilities for delivery among the urban poor; this is an important first step in reducing maternal death.

Accounting for Selectivity Bias and Correlation Across the Sequence From Elevated Blood Pressure to Hypertension Diagnosis and Treatment.

BACKGROUND: It is unknown whether efforts to reduce hypertension burden in countries with very high prevalence, would be more effective if directed at hypertension diagnosis vs. treatment. Most analyses do not address bias and correlation across the sequence from elevated blood pressure (BP) to hypertension diagnosis and treatment, leading to potentially misleading findings. METHODS: Using data spanning 18 years of the China Health and Nutrition Survey (n = 18,926; ages 18-75 years), we used an innovative 3-step, integrated system of equations to predict the sequence from: (i) elevated BP (systolic/diastolic BP ≥ 140/90 mm Hg) to (ii) diagnosed hypertension conditional on elevated BP, and to (iii) treatment (medication use) conditional on diagnosis, accounting for measured and unmeasured individual- and community-level confounders at each of the 3 steps. We compared results to separate traditional logistic regression models without control for unmeasured confounding. RESULTS: Using our 3-step model, elevated BP increased from 12.6% and 8.5% (1991) to 36.8% and 29% (2009) in men and women, respectively, but diagnosis remained under 50%. We found widening disparities in hypertension diagnosis (higher hypertension at lower vs. higher education (difference of 2% in 1991 that widened to 5% in 2009)) and narrowing disparities in education (difference of 6% in 1991 to 4% in 2009) and insurance status (difference of 7% in 1991 to 2% in 2009) for treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Our 3-step model improved model fit over traditionally used models. Our findings highlight serious barriers to hypertension diagnosis in Chinese adults, particularly among men and individuals of low attained education.

Understanding bias in relationships between the food environment and diet quality: the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between food environment exposures and diet behaviours is unclear, possibly because the majority of studies ignore potential residual confounding. METHODS: We used 20 years (1985-1986, 1992-1993 2005-2006) of data from the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study across four US cities (Birmingham, Alabama; Chicago, Illinois; Minneapolis, Minnesota; Oakland, California) and instrumental variables (IV) regression to obtain causal estimates of longitudinal associations between the percentage of neighbourhood food outlets (per total food outlets within 1 km network distance of respondent residence) and an a priori diet quality score, with higher scores indicating higher diet quality. To assess the presence and magnitude of bias related to residual confounding, we compared results from causal models (IV regression) to non-causal models, including ordinary least squares regression, which does not account for residual confounding at all and fixed-effects regression, which only controls for time-invariant unmeasured characteristics. RESULTS: The mean diet quality score across follow-up was 63.4 (SD=12.7). A 10% increase in fast food restaurants (relative to full-service restaurants) was associated with a lower diet quality score over time using IV regression (ß=-1.01, 95% CI -1.99 to -0.04); estimates were attenuated using non-causal models. The percentage of neighbourhood convenience and grocery stores (relative to supermarkets) was not associated with diet quality in any model, but estimates from non-causal models were similarly attenuated compared with causal models. CONCLUSION: Ignoring residual confounding may generate biased estimated effects of neighbourhood food outlets on diet outcomes and may have contributed to weak findings in the food environment literature.