Demystifying global climate models for use in the life sciences.

For each assessment cycle of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), researchers in the life sciences are called upon to provide evidence to policymakers planning for a changing future. This research increasingly relies on highly technical and complex outputs from climate models. The strengths and weaknesses of these data may not be fully appreciated beyond the climate modelling community; therefore, uninformed use of raw or preprocessed climate data could lead to overconfident or spurious conclusions. We provide an accessible introduction to climate model outputs that is intended to empower the life science community to robustly address questions about human and natural systems in a changing world.

Interventions to Reduce Risk for Pathogen Spillover and Early Disease Spread to Prevent Outbreaks, Epidemics, and Pandemics.

The pathogens that cause most emerging infectious diseases in humans originate in animals, particularly wildlife, and then spill over into humans. The accelerating frequency with which humans and domestic animals encounter wildlife because of activities such as land-use change, animal husbandry, and markets and trade in live wildlife has created growing opportunities for pathogen spillover. The risk of pathogen spillover and early disease spread among domestic animals and humans, however, can be reduced by stopping the clearing and degradation of tropical and subtropical forests, improving health and economic security of communities living in emerging infectious disease hotspots, enhancing biosecurity in animal husbandry, shutting down or strictly regulating wildlife markets and trade, and expanding pathogen surveillance. We summarize expert opinions on how to implement these goals to prevent outbreaks, epidemics, and pandemics.

Representational integration and differentiation in the human hippocampus following goal-directed navigation.

As we learn, dynamic memory processes build structured knowledge across our experiences. Such knowledge enables the formation of internal models of the world that we use to plan, make decisions, and act. Recent theorizing posits that mnemonic mechanisms of differentiation and integration - which at one level may seem to be at odds - both contribute to the emergence of structured knowledge. We tested this possibility using fMRI as human participants learned to navigate within local and global virtual environments over the course of 3 days. Pattern similarity analyses on entorhinal cortical and hippocampal patterns revealed evidence that differentiation and integration work concurrently to build local and global environmental representations, and that variability in integration relates to differences in navigation efficiency. These results offer new insights into the neural machinery and the underlying mechanisms that translate experiences into structured knowledge that allows us to navigate to achieve goals.

Assessing protected area vulnerability to climate change in a case study of South African national parks.

Climate change is challenging the ability of protected areas (PAs) to meet their objectives. To improve PA planning, we developed a framework for assessing PA vulnerability to climate change based on consideration of potential climate change impacts on species and their habitats and resource use. Furthermore, the capacity of PAs to adapt to these climate threats was determined through assessment of PA management effectiveness, adjacent land use, and financial resilience. Users reach a PA-specific vulnerability score and rank based on scoring of these categories. We applied the framework to South Africa's 19 national parks. Because the 19 parks are managed as a national network, we explored how resources might be best allocated to address climate change. Each park's importance to the network's biodiversity conservation and revenue generation was estimated and used to weight overall vulnerability scores and ranks. Park vulnerability profiles showed distinct combinations of potential impacts of climate change and adaptive capacities; the former had a greater influence on vulnerability. Mapungubwe National Park emerged as the most vulnerable to climate change, despite its relatively high adaptive capacity, largely owing to large projected changes in species and resource use. Table Mountain National Park scored the lowest in overall vulnerability. Climate change vulnerability rankings differed markedly once importance weightings were applied; Kruger National Park was the most vulnerable under both importance scenarios. Climate change vulnerability assessment is fundamental to effective adaptation planning. Our PA assessment tool is the only tool that quantifies PA vulnerability to climate change in a comparative index. It may be used in data-rich and data-poor contexts to prioritize resource allocation across PA networks and can be applied from local to global scales.

Resumen El cambio climático es un gran obstáculo para que las áreas protegidas (AP) logren sus objetivos. Para mejorar la planeación de las AP, desarrollamos un marco de trabajo para evaluar la vulnerabilidad de estas ante el cambio climático con base en la consideración de los impactos potenciales del cambio climático sobre las especies, sus hábitats y los recursos que usan. Además, determinamos la capacidad de las AP para adaptarse a estas amenazas climáticas mediante la valoración de las categorías efectividad de la gestión de las AP, las tierras adyacentes y la resiliencia económica. Los usuarios logran un puntaje y clasificación de vulnerabilidad específicas de la AP con base en las calificaciones de estas categorías. Aplicamos el marco de trabajo a los 19 parques nacionales de Sudáfrica. Ya que todos los parques se manejan como una red nacional, exploramos cómo pueden asignarse de mejor manera los recursos para lidiar con el cambio climático. Se estimaron la importancia de cada parque para la conservación de la biodiversidad de la red y la generación de ganancias. Después usamos las estimaciones para sopesar los puntajes y las clasificaciones generales de vulnerabilidad. Los perfiles de vulnerabilidad de los parques mostraron combinaciones distintivas de impactos potenciales del cambio climático y capacidades de adaptación; los impactos tuvieron una mayor influencia sobre la vulnerabilidad. El Parque Nacional Mapungubwe se ubicó como el más vulnerable ante el cambio climático, a pesar de tener una capacidad de adaptación relativamente alta, principalmente debida a grandes cambios proyectados para el uso de recursos y especies. El Parque Nacional Table Mountain tuvo el puntaje más bajo de vulnerabilidad generalizada. Las clasificaciones de vulnerabilidad al cambio climático difirieron notablemente una vez que se aplicaron los factores de importancia; el Parque Nacional Kruger fue el más vulnerable bajo ambos escenarios de importancia. La evaluación de vulnerabilidad al cambio climático es fundamental para la planeación efectiva de la adaptación. Nuestra herramienta de valoración de las AP es la única que cuantifica la vulnerabilidad de las AP al cambio climático en un índice comparativo. Puede usarse en contextos con muchos o pocos datos para priorizar la asignación de recursos en las redes de AP y puede aplicarse desde la escala local hasta la mundial.

The costs and benefits of primary prevention of zoonotic pandemics.

The lives lost and economic costs of viral zoonotic pandemics have steadily increased over the past century. Prominent policymakers have promoted plans that argue the best ways to address future pandemic catastrophes should entail, "detecting and containing emerging zoonotic threats." In other words, we should take actions only after humans get sick. We sharply disagree. Humans have extensive contact with wildlife known to harbor vast numbers of viruses, many of which have not yet spilled into humans. We compute the annualized damages from emerging viral zoonoses. We explore three practical actions to minimize the impact of future pandemics: better surveillance of pathogen spillover and development of global databases of virus genomics and serology, better management of wildlife trade, and substantial reduction of deforestation. We find that these primary pandemic prevention actions cost less than 1/20th the value of lives lost each year to emerging viral zoonoses and have substantial cobenefits.

Perfectionism and alcohol-related problems: The role of procrastination.

OBJECTIVE: College drinking is a significant individual and societal problem, and thus, identifying risk factors to alcohol-related problems has been an important line of inquiry. Adding to this rich literature, the current study examined whether perfectionism dimensions were associated with alcohol-related problems and whether a poor self-regulation process linked these associations. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 410 university students completed measures pertaining to perfectionism, procrastination, and negative consequences of alcohol use. METHODS: Parallel mediation models were tested. RESULTS: There was support for an indirect effect in the association between perfectionistic concerns and alcohol-related problems through susceptibility to temptation but not through pure procrastination or irrational procrastination. Perfectionistic strivings dimension was not associated with alcohol-related problems and this relation was not mediated by any procrastination dimensions. CONCLUSIONS: Building internal resources to better resist immediately gratifying yet long-run detrimental behavioral habits is important, especially so for highly self-critical students.

How deregulation, drought and increasing fire impact Amazonian biodiversity.

Biodiversity contributes to the ecological and climatic stability of the Amazon Basin1,2, but is increasingly threatened by deforestation and fire3,4. Here we quantify these impacts over the past two decades using remote-sensing estimates of fire and deforestation and comprehensive range estimates of 11,514 plant species and 3,079 vertebrate species in the Amazon. Deforestation has led to large amounts of habitat loss, and fires further exacerbate this already substantial impact on Amazonian biodiversity. Since 2001, 103,079-189,755 km2 of Amazon rainforest has been impacted by fires, potentially impacting the ranges of 77.3-85.2% of species that are listed as threatened in this region5. The impacts of fire on the ranges of species in Amazonia could be as high as 64%, and greater impacts are typically associated with species that have restricted ranges. We find close associations between forest policy, fire-impacted forest area and their potential impacts on biodiversity. In Brazil, forest policies that were initiated in the mid-2000s corresponded to reduced rates of burning. However, relaxed enforcement of these policies in 2019 has seemingly begun to reverse this trend: approximately 4,253-10,343 km2 of forest has been impacted by fire, leading to some of the most severe potential impacts on biodiversity since 2009. These results highlight the critical role of policy enforcement in the preservation of biodiversity in the Amazon.

Areas of global importance for conserving terrestrial biodiversity, carbon and water.

To meet the ambitious objectives of biodiversity and climate conventions, the international community requires clarity on how these objectives can be operationalized spatially and how multiple targets can be pursued concurrently. To support goal setting and the implementation of international strategies and action plans, spatial guidance is needed to identify which land areas have the potential to generate the greatest synergies between conserving biodiversity and nature's contributions to people. Here we present results from a joint optimization that minimizes the number of threatened species, maximizes carbon retention and water quality regulation, and ranks terrestrial conservation priorities globally. We found that selecting the top-ranked 30% and 50% of terrestrial land area would conserve respectively 60.7% and 85.3% of the estimated total carbon stock and 66% and 89.8% of all clean water, in addition to meeting conservation targets for 57.9% and 79% of all species considered. Our data and prioritization further suggest that adequately conserving all species considered (vertebrates and plants) would require giving conservation attention to ~70% of the terrestrial land surface. If priority was given to biodiversity only, managing 30% of optimally located land area for conservation may be sufficient to meet conservation targets for 81.3% of the terrestrial plant and vertebrate species considered. Our results provide a global assessment of where land could be optimally managed for conservation. We discuss how such a spatial prioritization framework can support the implementation of the biodiversity and climate conventions.

Perceptions towards an interaction partner predict social anxiety: an ecological momentary assessment study.

Social anxiety occurs in everyday social interactions, yet the real-world factors that shape the moment-to-moment experience of social anxiety have not been fully explored. Using ecological momentary assessments (smartphone-based, five signals a day for 21 days), the present study examined the associations between state social anxiety (SSA) and characteristics of interaction partners in varied contexts, and how these momentary associations differed with trait social anxiety (TSA). Ninety-two participants (54% female, age from 18 to 34) completed 4185 momentary reports. Results from multilevel models showed that perceived judgmentalness and unfamiliarity of interaction partners were positively associated with SSA, and the associations were stronger for the high TSA group (n = 30) compared to a control group (n = 62). Exploratory analyses with various types of interaction partners and social settings revealed noticeable group differences in how the types were associated with SSA (e.g. acquaintance, close friend/romantic partner) and how they influenced the effect of judgmentalness and unfamiliarity on SSA (e.g. authority, work/school). Overall, the findings highlight the role of contextual associations in social anxiety, and the benefits and the need for more comprehensive approaches with EMA in studying social anxiety, particularly its contextual aspects.

Ground-dwelling arthropods of pinyon-juniper woodlands: Arthropod community patterns are driven by climate and overall plant productivity, not host tree species.

Pinyon-juniper (PJ) woodlands have drastically changed over the last century with juniper encroaching into adjacent habitats and pinyon experiencing large-scale mortality events from drought. Changes in climate and forest composition may pose challenges for animal communities found in PJ woodlands, especially if animals specialize on tree species sensitive to drought. Here we test habitat specialization of ground-dwelling arthropod (GDA) communities underneath pinyon and juniper trees. We also investigate the role of climate and productivity gradients in structuring GDAs within PJ woodlands using two elevational gradients. We sampled 12,365 individuals comprising 115 taxa over two years. We found no evidence that GDAs differ under pinyon or juniper trees, save for a single species of beetle which preferred junipers. Climate and productivity, however, were strongly associated with GDA communities and appeared to drive differences between sites. Precipitation was strongly associated with arthropod richness, while differences in GDA composition were associated with environmental variables (precipitation, temperature, vapor pressure, and normalized difference vegetation index). These relationships varied among different arthropod taxa (e.g. ants and beetles) and community metrics (e.g. richness, abundance, and composition), with individual taxa also responding differently. Overall, our results suggest that GDAs are not dependent on tree type, but are strongly linked to primary productivity and climate, especially precipitation in PJ woodlands. This implies GDAs in PJ woodlands are more susceptible to changes in climate, especially at lower elevations where it is hot and dry, than changes in dominant vegetation. We discuss management implications and compare our findings to GDA relationships with vegetation in other systems.

The environmental consequences of climate-driven agricultural frontiers.

Growing conditions for crops such as coffee and wine grapes are shifting to track climate change. Research on these crop responses has focused principally on impacts to food production impacts, but evidence is emerging that they may have serious environmental consequences as well. Recent research has documented potential environmental impacts of shifting cropping patterns, including impacts on water, wildlife, pollinator interaction, carbon storage and nature conservation, on national to global scales. Multiple crops will be moving in response to shifting climatic suitability, and the cumulative environmental effects of these multi-crop shifts at global scales is not known. Here we model for the first time multiple major global commodity crop suitability changes due to climate change, to estimate the impacts of new crop suitability on water, biodiversity and carbon storage. Areas that become newly suitable for one or more crops are Climate-driven Agricultural Frontiers. These frontiers cover an area equivalent to over 30% of the current agricultural land on the planet and have major potential impacts on biodiversity in tropical mountains, on water resources downstream and on carbon storage in high latitude lands. Frontier soils contain up to 177 Gt of C, which might be subject to release, which is the equivalent of over a century of current United States CO2 emissions. Watersheds serving over 1.8 billion people would be impacted by the cultivation of the climate-driven frontiers. Frontiers intersect 19 global biodiversity hotspots and the habitat of 20% of all global restricted range birds. Sound planning and management of climate-driven agricultural frontiers can therefore help reduce globally significant impacts on people, ecosystems and the climate system.

Integrating climate adaptation and biodiversity conservation in the global ocean.

The impacts of climate change and the socioecological challenges they present are ubiquitous and increasingly severe. Practical efforts to operationalize climate-responsive design and management in the global network of marine protected areas (MPAs) are required to ensure long-term effectiveness for safeguarding marine biodiversity and ecosystem services. Here, we review progress in integrating climate change adaptation into MPA design and management and provide eight recommendations to expedite this process. Climate-smart management objectives should become the default for all protected areas, and made into an explicit international policy target. Furthermore, incentives to use more dynamic management tools would increase the climate change responsiveness of the MPA network as a whole. Given ongoing negotiations on international conservation targets, now is the ideal time to proactively reform management of the global seascape for the dynamic climate-biodiversity reality.

The commonness of rarity: Global and future distribution of rarity across land plants.

A key feature of life's diversity is that some species are common but many more are rare. Nonetheless, at global scales, we do not know what fraction of biodiversity consists of rare species. Here, we present the largest compilation of global plant diversity to quantify the fraction of Earth's plant biodiversity that are rare. A large fraction, ~36.5% of Earth's ~435,000 plant species, are exceedingly rare. Sampling biases and prominent models, such as neutral theory and the k-niche model, cannot account for the observed prevalence of rarity. Our results indicate that (i) climatically more stable regions have harbored rare species and hence a large fraction of Earth's plant species via reduced extinction risk but that (ii) climate change and human land use are now disproportionately impacting rare species. Estimates of global species abundance distributions have important implications for risk assessments and conservation planning in this era of rapid global change.