Long-term trends in cycle threshold values: a comprehensive analysis of COVID-19 dynamics, viral load, and reproduction number in South Korea.

Background: With the emergence of COVID-19 cases, governments quickly responded with aggressive testing, contact tracing, isolation and quarantine measures. South Korea's testing strategy primarily relied on real-time reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (real-time RT-PCR), focusing on cycle threshold (Ct) values, indicative of viral load, to determine COVID-19 positivity. This study examined the long-term time series distribution of Ct values measured in the same laboratory using a nationally standardized testing type and sampling method in South Korea. It aimed to link Ct values, new COVID-19 cases, and the reproduction number (Rt), setting the stage for using Ct values effectively. Methods: This study analyzed nationally collected 296,347 samples Ct values from February 2020 to January 2022 and examined their associations with the number of new cases and Rt trends. The data were categorized into four COVID-19 periods for in-depth analysis. Statistical methods included time series trend analysis, local regression for smoothing, linear regression for association analysis, and calculation of correlation coefficients. Results: The median Ct values across four COVID-19 periods decreased gradually from 31.71 in the initial period to 21.27 in the fourth period, indicating higher viral load. The comparison of trends between Ct values and the number of new cases revealed that the decline in Ct values preceded the surge in new cases, particularly evident during the initial stages when new cases did not undergo a significant increase. Also, during variant emergence and vaccination rollout, marked shifts in Ct values were observed. Results from linear regression analysis revealed a significant negative relationship between Ct values and new cases (ß = -0.33, p < 0.001, R 2 = 0.67). This implies that as Ct values decrease, new case numbers increase. Conclusion: This study demonstrates the potential of Ct values as early indicators for predicting confirmed COVID-19 cases during the initial stages of the epidemic and suggests their relevance in large-scale epidemic monitoring, even when case numbers are similar.

Factors Associated with Postoperative Recurrence in Stage I to IIIA Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer with Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor Mutation: Analysis of Korean National Population Data.

Purpose: Recent development in perioperative treatment of resectable non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) have changed the landscape of early lung cancer management. The ADAURA trial has demonstrated the efficacy of adjuvant osimertinib treatment in resectable NSCLC patients; however, studies are required to show which subgroup of patients are at a high risk of relapse and require adjuvant epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) treatment. This study evaluated risk factors for postoperative relapse among patients who underwent complete resection. Materials and Methods: Data were obtained from the Korean Association for Lung Cancer Registry (KALC-R), a database created using a retrospective sampling survey by the Korean Central Cancer Registry (KCCR) and the Lung Cancer Registration Committee. Results: A total of 3,176 patients who underwent curative resection was evaluated. The mean observation time was approximately 35.4 months. Among stage I to IIIA NSCLC patients, the EGFR-mutant subgroup included 867 patients, and 75.2%, 11.2%, and 11.8% were classified as stage I, stage II, and stage III, respectively. Within the EGFR-mutant subgroup, 44 (5.1%) and 121 (14.0%) patients showed early and late recurrence, respectively. Multivariate analysis on association with postoperative relapse among the EGFR-mutant subgroup showed that age, pathologic N and TNM stages, pleural invasion status, and surgery type were independent significant factors. Conclusion: Among the population that underwent complete resection for early NSCLC with EGFR mutation, patients with advanced stage, pleural invasion, or limited resection are more likely to show postoperative relapse.

Risk compensation after COVID-19 vaccination: Evidence from vaccine rollout by exact birth date in South Korea.

We utilize the phased rollout of COVID-19 vaccines by exact birth date in South Korea as a natural experiment for testing risk compensation. People may resume face-to-face social activities following vaccination because they perceive lower risk of infection. Applying a regression discontinuity design based on birth date cutoffs for vaccine eligibility, we find no evidence of risk-compensating behaviors, as measured by large, high-frequency data from credit card and airline companies as well as survey data. We find some evidence of self-selection into vaccine take-up based on perception toward vaccine effectiveness and side effects, but the treatment effects do not differ between compliers and never-takers.

Spatiotemporal Analysis of Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest Incidence and Survival Outcomes in Korea (2009-2021).

BACKGROUND: Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest is a major public health concern in Korea. Identifying spatiotemporal patterns of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest incidence and survival outcomes is crucial for effective resource allocation and targeted interventions. Thus, this study aimed to investigate the spatiotemporal epidemiology of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in Korea, with a focus on identifying high-risk areas and populations and examining factors associated with prehospital outcomes. METHODS: We conducted this population-based observational study using data from the Korean out-of-hospital cardiac arrest registry from January 2009 to December 2021. Using a Bayesian spatiotemporal model based on the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation, we calculated the standardized incidence ratio and assessed the relative risk to compare the spatial and temporal distributions over time. The primary outcome was out-of-hospital cardiac arrest incidence, and the secondary outcomes included prehospital return of spontaneous circulation, survival to hospital admission and discharge, and good neurological outcomes. RESULTS: Although the number of cases increased over time, the spatiotemporal analysis exhibited a discernible temporal pattern in the standardized incidence ratio of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest with a gradual decline over time (1.07; 95% credible interval [CrI], 1.04-1.09 in 2009 vs. 1.00; 95% CrI, 0.98-1.03 in 2021). The district-specific risk ratios of survival outcomes were more favorable in the metropolitan and major metropolitan areas. In particular, the neurological outcomes were significantly improved from relative risk 0.35 (0.31-0.39) in 2009 to 1.75 (1.65-1.86) in 2021. CONCLUSION: This study emphasized the significance of small-area analyses in identifying high-risk regions and populations using spatiotemporal analyses. These findings have implications for public health planning efforts to alleviate the burden of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in Korea.

Role of invasive mediastinal nodal staging in survival outcomes of patients with non-small cell lung cancer and without radiologic lymph node metastasis: a retrospective cohort study.

Background: Lung cancer diagnostic guidelines advocate for invasive mediastinal nodal staging (IMNS), but the survival benefits of this approach in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) without radiologic evidence of lymph node metastasis (rN0) remain uncertain. We aimed to investigate the impact of IMNS in patients with rN0 NSCLC by comparing the long-term survival between patients who underwent IMNS and those who did not (non-IMNS). Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, we included patients with NSCLC but without radiologic evidence of lymph node metastasis from the Registry for Thoracic Cancer Surgery and the clinical data warehouse at the Samsung Medical Centre, Republic of Korea between January 2, 2008 and December 31, 2016. We compared the 5-year overall survival (OS) rate as the primary outcome after propensity score matching between the IMNS and non-IMNS groups. The age, sex, performance statue, tumor size, centrality, solidity, lung function, FDG uptake in PET-CT, and histological examination of the tumor before surgery were matched. Findings: A total of 4545 patients (887 in the IMNS group and 3658 in the non-IMNS group) who received curative treatment for NSCLC were included in this study. By the mediastinal node dissection, the overall incidence of unforeseen mediastinal node metastasis (N2) was 7.2% (317/4378 patients). Despite the IMNS, 67% of pathological N2 was missed (61/91 patients with unforeseen N2). Based on propensity score matching, 866 patients each for the IMNS and non-IMNS groups were assigned. There was no significant difference in 5-year OS and recurrence-free survival (RFS) between two groups: 5-year OS was 73.9% (95% confidence interval, CI: 71%-77%) for IMNS and 71.7% (95% CI: 68.6%-74.9%; p = 0.23), for non-IMNS (hazard ratio, HR 0.90, 95% CI: 0.77-1.07), while 5-year RFS was 64.7% (95% CI: 61.5%-68.2%) and 67.5% (95% CI: 64.3%-70.9%; p = 0.35 (HR 1.08, 95% CI: 0.92-1.27), respectively. Moreover, the timing and locations of recurrence were similar in both groups. Interpretation: IMNS might not be required before surgery for patients with NSCLC without LN suspicious of metastasis. Further randomised trials are required to validate the findings of the present study. Funding: None.

Predicted Cervical Cancer Prevention: Impact of National HPV Vaccination Program on Young Women in South Korea.

PURPOSE: This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of the national human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination program of South Korea among its entire female population, particularly among younger age groups. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We first predicted the incidence of cervical cancer over the next 20 years (2021-2040) using the Nordpred package based on Møller's age-period-cohort model under several scenarios for the national HPV vaccination program. We calculated the potential impact fractions and proportional differences under the current national vaccination programs, and alternative scenarios using the no-vaccination assumption as a reference. RESULTS: We estimated that the current national vaccination program would prevent 4.13% of cervical cancer cases and reduce the age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) by 8.79% in the overall population by 2036-2040. Under the alternative scenario of implementing the nine-valent vaccine, 5.13% of cervical cancer cases could be prevented and the ASR reduced by 10.93% during the same period. In another scenario, expanding the vaccination age to 9-17 years could prevent 10.19% of cervical cancer cases, with the ASR reduced by 18.57% during the same period. When restricted to ages < 40 years, the prevention effect was remarkably greater. We predict that the current national HPV program will reduce its incidence by more than 30% between 2036 and 2040 in women aged < 40 years. CONCLUSION: The effectiveness of the vaccination program in reducing the incidence of cervical cancer was confirmed, with a considerable impact anticipated in younger age groups.

Utilization of the Unlinked Case Proportion to Control COVID-19: A Focus on the Non-pharmaceutical Interventional Policies of the Korea and Japan.

OBJECTIVES: Korea and Japan have managed the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) using markedly different policies, referred to as the "3T" and "3C" strategies, respectively. This study examined these differences to assess the roles of active testing and contact tracing as non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). We compared the proportion of unlinked cases (UCs) and test positivity rate (TPR) as indicators of tracing and testing capacities. METHODS: We outlined the evolution of NPI policies and investigated temporal trends in their correlations with UCs, confirmed cases, and TPR prior to the Omicron peak. Spearman correlation coefficients were reported between the proportion of UCs, confirmed cases, and TPR. The Fisher r-to-z transformation was employed to examine the significance of differences between correlation coefficients. RESULTS: The proportion of UCs was significantly correlated with confirmed cases (r=0.995, p<0.001) and TPR (r=0.659, p<0.001) in Korea and with confirmed cases (r=0.437, p<0.001) and TPR (r=0.429, p<0.001) in Japan. The Fisher r-to-z test revealed significant differences in correlation coefficients between the proportion of UCs and confirmed cases (z=16.07, p<0.001) and between the proportion of UCs and TPR (z=2.12, p=0.034) in Korea and Japan. CONCLUSIONS: Higher UCs were associated with increases in confirmed cases and TPR, indicating the importance of combining testing and contact tracing in controlling COVID-19. The implementation of stricter policies led to stronger correlations between these indicators. The proportion of UCs and TPR effectively indicated the effectiveness of NPIs. If the proportion of UCs shows an upward trend, more testing and contact tracing may be required.

Circulating Vitamin D Level and Risk of Sudden Cardiac Death and Cardiovascular Mortality: A Dose-Response Meta-Analysis of Prospective Studies.

BACKGROUND: We conducted a comprehensive meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies to analyze the effect of circulating vitamin D level on the risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. METHODS: Prospective cohort studies evaluating the association between circulating vitamin D and risk of SCD and CVD mortality were systematically searched in the PubMed and Embase. Extracted data were analyzed using a random effects model and results were expressed in terms of hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). Restricted cubic spline analysis was used to estimate the dose-response relationships. RESULTS: Of the 1,321 records identified using the search strategy, a total of 19 cohort studies were included in the final meta-analysis. The pooled estimate of HR (95% CI) for low vs. high circulating vitamin D level was 1.75 (1.49-2.06) with I² value of 30.4%. In subgroup analysis, strong effects of circulating vitamin D were observed in healthy general population (pooled HR, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.43-2.38) and the clinical endpoint of SCD (pooled HRs, 2.68; 95% CI, 1.48-4.83). The dose-response analysis at the reference level of < 50 nmol/L showed a significant negative association between circulating vitamin D and risk of SCD and CVD mortality. CONCLUSION: Our meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies showed that lower circulating vitamin D level significantly increased the risk of SCD and CVD mortality.

Establishing reference values for percentage of appendicular skeletal muscle mass and their association with metabolic syndrome in Korean adolescents.

PURPOSE: The association between appendicular skeletal muscle mass (ASM) and cardiometabolic risk has been emphasized. We estimated reference values of the percentage of ASM (PASM) and investigated their association with metabolic syndrome (MS) in Korean adolescents. METHODS: Data from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey performed between 2009 and 2011 were used. Tables and graphs of reference PASM were generated using 1,522 subjects, 807 of whom were boys aged 10 to 18. The relationship between PASM and each component of MS in adolescents was further analyzed in 1,174 subjects, 613 of whom were boys. Moreover, the pediatric simple MS score (PsiMS), the homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), and the triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index were analyzed. Multivariate linear and logistic regressions adjusting for age, sex, household income, and daily energy intake were performed. RESULTS: In boys, PASM increased with age; the trend was different in girls, in whom PASM declined with age. PsiMS, HOMA-IR, and TyG index showed inverse associations with PASM (PsiMS, ß=-0.105, P<0.001; HOMA-IR, ß=-0.104, P<0.001; and TyG index, ß=-0.013, P<0.001). PASM z-score was negatively associated with obesity (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.22; 95% CI, 0.17-0.30), abdominal obesity (aOR, 0.27; 95% CI, 0.20-0.36), hypertension (aOR, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.52-0.80), and elevated triglycerides (aOR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.56-0.79). CONCLUSION: The probability of acquiring MS and insulin resistance decreased as PASM values increased. The reference range may offer clinicians information to aid in the effective management of patients. We urge clinicians to monitor body composition using standard reference databases.

Temporal Trends of the Prevalence of Abdominal Obesity and Metabolic Syndrome in Korean Children and Adolescents between 2007 and 2020.

Background: The prevalence of obesity in children and adolescents is increasing worldwide, which is of concern because obesity can lead to various complications such as metabolic syndrome (MS). Waist circumference (WC) and waist-height ratio (WHtR) are useful indicators of abdominal obesity and MS. In this study, we investigate trends in the prevalence of abdominal obesity and MS using two different references. Methods: Data from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2007 to 2020) were used. In total, 21,652 participants aged 2 to 18 years and 9,592 participants aged 10 to 18 years were analyzed for abdominal obesity and MS, respectively. The prevalence of abdominal obesity and that of MS were compared using the Korean National Growth Chart in 2007 (REF2007) and the newly published WC and WHtR reference values in 2022 (REF2022). Results: Both WC and WHtR showed an increasing trend. The prevalence of abdominal obesity was 14.71% based on REF2022, 5.85% points higher than that of 8.86% based on REF2007. MS based on REF2022 had a higher prevalence for both the National Cholesterol Education Program definition (3.90% by REF2007, 4.78% by REF2022) and the International Diabetes Federation definition (2.29% by REF2007, 3.10% by REF2022). The prevalence of both abdominal obesity and MS increased over time. Conclusion: The prevalence of abdominal obesity and MS increased in Korean children and adolescents from 2007 to 2020. When analyzed by REF2022, both abdominal obesity and MS showed higher prevalence rates than when using REF2007, indicating that previous reports were underestimated. Follow-up for abdominal obesity and MS using REF2022 is needed.

Annual Endovascular Thrombectomy Case Volume and Thrombectomy-capable Hospitals of Korea in Acute Stroke Care.

OBJECTIVES: Although it is difficult to define the quality of stroke care, acute ischemic stroke (AIS) patients with moderate-to-severe neurological deficits may benefit from thrombectomy-capable hospitals (TCHs) that have a stroke unit, stroke specialists, and a substantial endovascular thrombectomy (EVT) case volume. METHODS: From national audit data collected between 2013 and 2016, potential EVT candidates arriving within 24 hours with a baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score ≥6 were identified. Hospitals were classified as TCHs (≥15 EVT case/y, stroke unit, and stroke specialists), primary stroke hospitals (PSHs) without EVT (PSHs-without-EVT, 0 case/y), and PSHs-with-EVT. Thirty-day and 1-year case-fatality rates (CFRs) were analyzed using random intercept multilevel logistic regression. RESULTS: Out of 35 004 AIS patients, 7954 (22.7%) EVT candidates were included in this study. The average 30-day CFR was 16.3% in PSHs-without-EVT, 14.8% in PSHs-with-EVT, and 11.0% in TCHs. The average 1-year CFR was 37.5% in PSHs-without-EVT, 31.3% in PSHs-with-EVT, and 26.2% in TCHs. In TCHs, a significant reduction was not found in the 30-day CFR (odds ratio [OR], 0.92; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.76 to 1.12), but was found in the 1-year CFR (OR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.73 to 0.96). CONCLUSIONS: The 1-year CFR was significantly reduced when EVT candidates were treated at TCHs. TCHs are not defined based solely on the number of EVTs, but also based on the presence of a stroke unit and stroke specialists. This supports the need for TCH certification in Korea and suggests that annual EVT case volume could be used to qualify TCHs.

Impact of Awareness Time Interval on the Effect of Bystander Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation on Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest: A Nationwide Study.

PURPOSE: The awareness time interval (ATI), the time from the witnessed event to emergency medical service (EMS) activation, is an important factor influencing out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) outcomes. Since bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation (BCPR) is provided after cardiac arrest is recognized, the effect of BCPR may vary depending on ATI delay. We aimed to investigate whether ATI modifies the effect of BCPR on OHCA outcomes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A population-based observational study was conducted with EMS-treated witnessed adult (≥18 years) OHCAs between 2013 and 2018. The exposure variable was provision of BCPR. The primary outcome was a good neurological outcome defined as cerebral performance category scale 1or 2 (good CPC). Multivariable logistic regression analysis was conducted using the ATI group (-1, 1-5, 5- min) as the interaction term. RESULTS: Of 34366 eligible OHCAs, 65.5% received BCPR. EMS was activated within 1 min in 45.9%, within 1-5 min in 29.2%, and after 5 min in 24.9% cases. In the adjusted interaction model, compared with no BCPR, a longer ATI resulted in smaller adjusted odds ratios for good CPC in the BCPR group [5.33 (4.17-6.82) for ATI ≤1 min, 5.14 (4.00-6.60) for 1-5 min, and 2.14 (1.63-2.81) for ATI >5 min]. CONCLUSION: The effect of BCPR on improving the chances for a good neurological outcome decreased as time from collapse to EMS activation increased. The importance of early recognition of OHCA and EMS activation should be emphasized in BCPR training.

Stratifying non-small cell lung cancer patients using an inverse of the treatment decision rules: validation using electronic health records with application to an administrative database.

BACKGROUND: To validate a stratification method using an inverse of treatment decision rules that can classify non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients in real-world treatment records. METHODS: (1) To validate the index classifier against the TNM 7th edition, we analyzed electronic health records of NSCLC patients diagnosed from 2011 to 2015 in a tertiary referral hospital in Seoul, Korea. Predictive accuracy, stage-specific sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, F1 score, and c-statistic were measured. (2) To apply the index classifier in an administrative database, we analyzed NSCLC patients in Korean National Health Insurance Database, 2002-2013. Differential survival rates among the classes were examined with the log-rank test, and class-specific survival rates were compared with the reference survival rates. RESULTS: (1) In the validation study (N = 1375), the overall accuracy was 93.8% (95% CI: 92.5-95.0%). Stage-specific c-statistic was the highest for stage I (0.97, 95% CI: 0.96-0.98) and the lowest for stage III (0.82, 95% CI: 0.77-0.87). (2) In the application study (N = 71,593), the index classifier showed a tendency for differentiating survival probabilities among classes. Compared to the reference TNM survival rates, the index classification under-estimated the survival probability for stages IA, IIIB, and IV, and over-estimated it for stages IIA and IIB. CONCLUSION: The inverse of the treatment decision rules has a potential to supplement a routinely collected database with information encoded in the treatment decision rules to classify NSCLC patients. It requires further validation and replication in multiple clinical settings.

Associations of cold exposure with hospital admission and mortality due to acute kidney injury: A nationwide time-series study in Korea.

BACKGROUND: Emerging evidence supports an association between heat exposure and acute kidney injury (AKI). However, there is a paucity of studies on the association between cold exposure and AKI. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to investigate the associations of cold exposure with hospital admission and mortality due to AKI and to explore whether these associations were influenced by age and sex. METHODS: Information on daily counts of hospital admission and mortality due to AKI in 16 regions of Korea during the cold seasons (2010-2019) was obtained from the National Health Insurance Service (a single national insurer providing universal health coverage) and Statistics Korea. Daily mean temperature and relative humidity were calculated from hourly data obtained from 94 monitoring systems operated by the Korean Meteorological Administration. Associations of low temperatures (<10th percentile of daily mean temperature) and cold spells (≥2 consecutive days with <5th percentile of daily mean temperature) up to 21 days with AKI were estimated using quasi-Poisson regression models adjusted for potential confounders (e.g., relative humidity and air pollutants) with distributed lag models and univariate meta-regression models. RESULTS: Low temperatures were associated with hospital admission due to AKI [relative risk (RR) = 1.12, 95 % confidence interval (CI): 1.09, 1.16]. Cold spells were associated with hospital admission (RR = 1.87, 95 % CI: 1.46, 2.39) and mortality due to AKI (RR = 4.84, 95 % CI: 1.30, 17.98). These associations were stronger among individuals aged ≥65 years than among those aged <65 years. CONCLUSION: Our results underscore the need for the general population, particularly the elderly, physicians, and other healthcare providers to be more vigilant to cold exposure, given the risk of AKI. Government agencies need to develop specific strategies for the prevention and early detection of cold exposure-related AKI.

Mediators of the Effect of Obesity on Stroke and Heart Disease Risk: Decomposing Direct and Indirect Effects.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of overweight and obesity are well known risk factors of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). We aimed to examine the association between body mass index (BMI) and ASCVD over a 23-year follow-up in young adults. We also qualified how much of the effects of obesity on ASCVD were mediated through blood pressure, cholesterol, and glucose. METHODS: Data are from the Korean Life Course Health Study, a cohort study of 226,955 Korean young adults aged 20-39. At baseline, the participants undertook routine health assessments where their BMI was measured in 1992-1994; and the metabolic mediators including systolic blood pressure (SBP), fasting serum glucose (FSG), and total cholesterol (TC) were re-measured in 2002-2004. The main outcomes of the study include incident events of ischemic heart disease (IHD), stroke, and ASCVD between 2005 and 2015. Cox proportional model was used to calculate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for ASCVD. RESULTS: In both men and women, the direct effect of BMI on ASCVD was greater than the indirect effect. The percentage of excess HR of BMI mediated by all of the metabolic mediators, including SBP, FSG, and TC, was 45.7% for stroke and 18.7% for IHD in men and 27.5% for stroke and 17.6% for IHD in women. CONCLUSION: High BMI in young adults increases the risk of metabolic mediators in their middle age, and metabolic mediators explain the adverse effects of high BMI on stroke risk than IHD risk.

Five-Year Overall Survival and Prognostic Factors in Patients with Lung Cancer: Results from the Korean Association of Lung Cancer Registry (KALC-R) 2015.

PURPOSE: This study aimed to provide the clinical characteristics, prognostic factors, and 5-year relative survival rates of lung cancer diagnosed in 2015. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The demographic risk factors of lung cancer were calculated using the KALC-R (Korean Association of Lung Cancer Registry) cohort in 2015, with survival follow-up until December 31, 2020. The 5-year relative survival rates were estimated using Ederer II methods, and the general population data used the death rate adjusted for sex and age published by the Korea Statistical Information Service from 2015 to 2020. RESULTS: We enrolled 2,657 patients with lung cancer who were diagnosed in South Korea in 2015. Of all patients, 2,098 (79.0%) were diagnosed with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and 345 (13.0%) were diagnosed with small cell lung cancer (SCLC), respectively. Old age, poor performance status, and advanced clinical stage were independent risk factors for both NSCLC and SCLC. In addition, the 5-year relative survival rate declined with advanced stage in both NSCLC (82%, 59%, 16%, 10% as the stage progressed) and SCLC (16%, 4% as the stage progressed). In patients with stage IV adenocarcinoma, the 5-year relative survival rate was higher in the presence of epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) mutation (19% vs. 11%) or anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK) translocation (38% vs. 11%). CONCLUSION: In this Korean nationwide survey, the 5-year relative survival rates of NSCLC were 82% at stage I, 59% at stage II, 16% at stage III, and 10% at stage IV, and the 5-year relative survival rates of SCLC were 16% in cases with limited disease, and 4% in cases with extensive disease.

Modified susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model for assessing the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic in Seoul.

Susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) models were applied to assess the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and to study the dynamic behavior of the COVID-19 pandemic. Recently, SEIR models have evolved to address the change of human mobility by some NPIs for predicting the new confirmed cases. However, the models have serious limitations when applied to Seoul. Seoul has two representative quarantine policies, i.e. social distancing and the ban on gatherings. Effects of the two policies need to be reflected in different functional forms in the model because changes in human mobility do not fully reflect the ban on gatherings. Thus we propose a modified SEIR model to assess the effectiveness of social distancing, ban on gatherings and vaccination strategies. The application of the modified SEIR model was illustrated by comparing the model output with real data.

The Impact of Household Economic Deterioration Caused by the COVID-19 Pandemic and Socioeconomic Status on Suicidal Behaviors in Adolescents: A Cross-sectional Study Using 2020 Korea Youth Risk Behavior Web-based Survey Data.

OBJECTIVES: Economic hardship has a serious impact on adolescents' mental health. The financial impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic was more severe for low-income families, and this also impacted adolescents. This study aimed to examine the associations of economic deterioration (ED) caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and low socioeconomic status (SES) with adolescents' suicidal behaviors. METHODS: This study analyzed data from the 2020 Korea Youth Risk Behavior Web-based Survey, which included 54 948 middle and high school students. Odds ratios (ORs) of suicidal ideation, suicidal planning, and suicide attempts related to ED and SES were calculated using multivariable logistic regression. We calculated relative excess risks due to interaction to assess additive interactions. RESULTS: The ORs for suicidal ideation, suicidal planning, and suicide attempts related to combined severe ED and low SES were 3.64 (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.13 to 4.23), 3.88 (95% CI, 3.09 to 4.88), and 4.27 (95% CI, 3.21 to 5.69), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: ED and low SES were significantly associated with suicidal behaviors in adolescents. Although no significant additive interaction was found, the ORs related to suicidal ideation, suicidal planning, and suicide attempts were highest among adolescents from low-income families with severe ED. Special attention is needed for this group, considering the increased impact of economic inequality due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Racial and Ethnic Differences in the Association of Low-Carbohydrate Diet With Mortality in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

Importance: Evidence linking low-carbohydrate diets (LCDs) to mortality is limited among multiethnic populations. Objective: To evaluate the association between LCDs and mortality by race and ethnicity. Design, Setting, and Participants: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis is a large, population-based prospective cohort study of adults aged 45 to 84 years recruited from 6 US communities. A total of 6109 participants without baseline cardiovascular disease were included in this analysis. Baseline data were collected from July 2000 to August 2002, with follow-up completed by December 2017. The data were analyzed between May 2021 and April 2022. Exposures: Food frequency questionnaires were used to assess dietary intake. From these data, overall LCD scores were calculated from the percentages of energy intake from carbohydrates, fats, and proteins. Animal-based (emphasizing saturated fat and animal protein) and vegetable-based (emphasizing monounsaturated fat and vegetable protein) LCD scores were also calculated. Main Outcomes and Measures: All-cause and cause-specific mortality over a median follow-up of 15.9 years (IQR, 14.3-16.6 years). Results: Among the 6109 participants (mean [SD] age, 62.3 [10.3] years; 3190 women [52.2%]; 1623 African American [26.6%], 701 Chinese American [11.5%], 1350 Hispanic [22.1%], and 2435 non-Hispanic White [39.8%]), there were 1391 deaths. Overall, LCD scores were not associated with mortality, but when analyses were stratified by race and ethnicity, a lower risk of all-cause and non-CV mortality was observed among Hispanic participants with moderate carbohydrate intake. Specifically, the hazard ratios for total mortality for overall LCD scores were 0.58 (95% CI, 0.40-0.84) for quintile 2, 0.67 (95% CI, 0.45-0.98) for quintile 3, 0.60 (95% CI, 0.41-0.87) for quintile 4, and 0.83 (95% CI, 0.57-1.21) for quintile 5, with quintile 1 as the reference group. A similar association was observed for animal-based (but not vegetable-based) LCD scores. In contrast, no significant associations were found between LCD scores and mortality risk in the other racial and ethnic groups. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study of multiethnic US adults, LCD score was not associated with mortality in the whole population. However, moderate carbohydrate intake was associated with a lower risk of mortality among Hispanic participants. These findings suggest that the association between carbohydrate intake and mortality may differ according to race and ethnicity. Dietary guidelines considering these differences may be necessary.