Ectopic Prostatic Tissue in Female Urethral Diverticulum.

BACKGROUND: Ectopic prostatic tissue in female patients is rare. It is theorized that the presence of prostatic tissue in female patients is likely a Wolffian remnant or transformation of hormonally mediated tissue of the uterus, cervix, Skene's gland, and, rarely, periurethral tissue. Due to the increase in the use of testosterone and gender-affirming therapies, it is important to understand the role of testosterone in mediating the presence of ectopic prostatic tissue. CASE: We present a case of ectopic prostatic tissue in a urethral diverticulum in a female patient with exposure to testosterone hormone therapy and review the literature on this finding. CONCLUSION: Although rare, ectopic prostatic tissue should be considered in the differential diagnosis of anterior vaginal cysts, especially in the setting of testosterone supplementation.

Longitudinal Fluctuations in Treatment Response After OnabotulinumToxinA and Sacral Neuromodulation for Refractory Urgency Incontinence.

PURPOSE: We compared fluctuations in treatment response after onabotulinumtoxinA and sacral neuromodulation for urgency incontinence using Markov models. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We fit data from a randomized trial to Markov models to compare transitions of success/failure over 6 months between 200 U onabotulinumtoxinA and sacral neuromodulation. Objective failure was <50% reduction in urgency incontinence episodes from baseline; subjective failure "strongly disagree" to "neutral" to the Patient Global Symptom Control questionnaire. RESULTS: Of the 357 participants (median baseline daily urgency incontinence episodes 4.7 [IQR 3.7-6.0]) 61% vs 51% and 3.2% vs 6.1% reported persistent states of objective success and failure over 6 months after onabotulinumtoxinA vs sacral neuromodulation. Participants receiving onabotulinumtoxinA vs sacral neuromodulation had lower 30-day transition probabilities from objective and subjective success to failure (10% vs 14%, ratio 0.75 [95% CI 0.55-0.95]; 14% vs 21%, ratio 0.70 [95% CI 0.51-0.89]). The 30-day transition probability from objective and subjective failure to success did not differ between onabotulinumtoxinA and sacral neuromodulation (40% vs 36%, ratio 1.11 [95% CI 0.73-1.50]; 18% vs 17%, ratio 1.14 [95% CI 0.65-1.64]). CONCLUSIONS: Over 6 months after treatment, 2 in 5 women's symptoms fluctuate. Within these initial 6 months, women receiving onabotulinumtoxinA transitioned from success to failure over 30 days less often than sacral neuromodulation. For both treatments, there was an almost 20%-40% probability over 30 days that women returned to subjective and objective success after failure. Markov models add important information to longitudinal models on how symptoms fluctuate after urgency incontinence treatment.

Postpartum readmission for hypertension and pre-eclampsia: development and validation of a predictive model.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a model for predicting postpartum readmission for hypertension and pre-eclampsia at delivery discharge and assess external validation or model transportability across clinical sites. DESIGN: Prediction model using data available in the electronic health record from two clinical sites. SETTING: Two tertiary care health systems from the Southern (2014-2015) and Northeastern USA (2017-2019). POPULATION: A total of 28 201 postpartum individuals: 10 100 in the South and 18 101 in the Northeast. METHODS: An internal-external cross validation (IECV) approach was used to assess external validation or model transportability across the two sites. In IECV, data from each health system were first used to develop and internally validate a prediction model; each model was then externally validated using the other health system. Models were fit using penalised logistic regression, and accuracy was estimated using discrimination (concordance index), calibration curves and decision curves. Internal validation was performed using bootstrapping with bias-corrected performance measures. Decision curve analysis was used to display potential cut points where the model provided net benefit for clinical decision-making. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The outcome was postpartum readmission for either hypertension or pre-eclampsia <6 weeks after delivery. RESULTS: The postpartum readmission rate for hypertension and pre-eclampsia overall was 0.9% (0.3% and 1.2% by site, respectively). The final model included six variables: age, parity, maximum postpartum diastolic blood pressure, birthweight, pre-eclampsia before discharge and delivery mode (and interaction between pre-eclampsia × delivery mode). Discrimination was adequate at both health systems on internal validation (c-statistic South: 0.88; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.87-0.89; Northeast: 0.74; 95% CI 0.74-0.74). In IECV, discrimination was inconsistent across sites, with improved discrimination for the Northeastern model on the Southern cohort (c-statistic 0.61 and 0.86, respectively), but calibration was not adequate. Next, model updating was performed using the combined dataset to develop a new model. This final model had adequate discrimination (c-statistic: 0.80, 95% CI 0.80-0.80), moderate calibration (intercept -0.153, slope 0.960, Emax 0.042) and provided superior net benefit at clinical decision-making thresholds between 1% and 7% for interventions preventing readmission. An online calculator is provided here. CONCLUSIONS: Postpartum readmission for hypertension and pre-eclampsia may be accurately predicted but further model validation is needed. Model updating using data from multiple sites will be needed before use across clinical settings.

Adherence to Perioperative Behavioral Therapy With Pelvic Floor Muscle Training in Women Receiving Vaginal Reconstructive Surgery for Pelvic Organ Prolapse.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to describe adherence to behavioral and pelvic floor muscle training in women undergoing vaginal reconstructive surgery for organ prolapse and to examine whether adherence was associated with 24-month outcomes. METHODS: Participants were women ≥18 years of age, with vaginal bulge and stress urinary incontinence symptoms, planning to undergo vaginal reconstructive surgery for stages 2 to 4 vaginal or uterine prolapse. They were randomized to either sacrospinous ligament fixation or uterosacral ligament suspension and to perioperative behavioral and pelvic floor muscle training or usual care. Measurements included anatomic failure, pelvic floor muscle strength, participant-reported symptoms, and perceived improvement. Analyses compared women with lower versus higher adherence. RESULTS: Forty-eight percent of women performed pelvic floor muscle exercises (PFMEs) daily at the 4- to 6-week visit. Only 33% performed the prescribed number of muscle contractions. At 8 weeks, 37% performed PFMEs daily, and 28% performed the prescribed number of contractions. No significant relationships were found between adherence and 24-month outcomes. CONCLUSION: Adherence to a behavioral intervention was low following vaginal reconstructive surgery for pelvic organ prolapse. The degree of adherence to perioperative training did not appear to influence 24-month outcomes in women undergoing vaginal prolapse surgery. IMPACT: This study contributes to the understanding of participant adherence to PFMEs and the impact that participant adherence has on outcomes at 2, 4 to 6, 8, and 12 weeks and 24 months postoperatively. It is important to educate women to follow up with their therapist or physician to report new or unresolved pelvic symptoms.

Intraoperative Predictors of Sacral Neuromodulation Implantation and Treatment Response: Results From the ROSETTA Trial.

PURPOSE: We determined the utility of intraoperative data in predicting sacral neuromodulation outcomes in urgency urinary incontinence. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Intraoperative details of sacral neuromodulation stage 1 were recorded during the prospective, randomized, multicenter ROSETTA trial, including responsive electrodes, amplitudes, and response strengths (motor and sensory Likert scales). Stage 2 implant was performed for stage 1 success on 3-day diary with 24-month follow-up. An intraoperative amplitude response score for each electrode was calculated ranging from 0 (no response) to 99.5 (maximum response, 0.5 V). Predictors for stage 1 success and improvement at 24 months were identified by stepwise logistic regression confirmed with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and stepwise linear regression. RESULTS: Intraoperative data from 161 women showed 139 (86%) had stage 1 success, which was not associated with number of electrodes generating an intraoperative motor and/or sensory response, average amplitude at responsive electrodes, or minimum amplitude-producing responses. However, relative to other electrodes, a best amplitude response score for bellows at electrode 3 was associated with stage 1 failure, a lower reduction in daily urgency urinary incontinence episodes during stage 1, and most strongly predicted stage 1 outcome in logistic modeling. At 24 months, those who had electrode 3 intraoperative sensory response had lower mean reduction in daily urgency urinary incontinence episodes than those who had no response. CONCLUSIONS: Specific parameters routinely assessed intraoperatively during stage 1 sacral neuromodulation for urgency urinary incontinence show limited utility in predicting both acute and long-term outcomes. However, lead position as it relates to the trajectory of the sacral nerve root appears to be important.

Natural history of lower urinary tract symptoms in treatment-seeking women with pelvic organ prolapse; the Symptoms of Lower Urinary Tract Dysfunction Research Network (LURN).

BACKGROUND: The association of pelvic organ prolapse with overactive bladder and other lower urinary tract symptoms, and the natural history of those symptoms are not well characterized. Previous cross-sectional studies demonstrated conflicting relationships between prolapse and lower urinary tract symptoms. OBJECTIVE: This study primarily aimed to determine the baseline association between lower urinary tract symptoms and prolapse and to assess longitudinal differences in symptoms over 12 months in women with and without prolapse. Secondary aims were to explore associations between lower urinary tract symptoms and prolapse treatment. We hypothesized that: (1) prolapse is associated with the presence of lower urinary tract symptoms, (2) lower urinary tract symptoms are stable over time in patients with and without prolapse, and (3) prolapse treatment is associated with lower urinary tract symptom improvement. STUDY DESIGN: Women enrolled in the Symptoms of Lower Urinary Tract Dysfunction Research Network Observational Cohort Study with adequate 12-month follow-up data were included. Prolapse and lower urinary tract symptom treatment during follow-up was guided by standard of care. Outcome measures included the Lower Urinary Tract Symptoms Tool total severity score (in addition to overactive bladder, obstructive, and stress urinary incontinence subscales) and Urogenital Distress Inventory-6 Short Form. Prolapse (yes or no) was defined primarily when Pelvic Organ Prolapse Quantification System points Ba, C or Bp were >0 (beyond the hymen). Mixed-effects models with random effects for patient slopes and intercepts were fitted for each lower urinary tract symptom outcome and prolapse predictor, adjusted for other covariates. The study had >90% power to detect differences as small as 0.4 standard deviation for less prevalent group comparisons (eg, prolapse vs not). RESULTS: A total of 371 women were analyzed, including 313 (84%) with no prolapse and 58 (16%) with prolapse. Women with prolapse were older (64.6±8.8 vs 55.3±14.1 years; P<.001) and more likely to have prolapse surgery (28% vs 1%; P<.001) and pessary treatment (26% vs 4%; P<.001) during the study. Average baseline Lower Urinary Tract Symptoms Tool total severity scores were lower (fewer symptoms) for participants with prolapse compared with those without (38.9±14.0 vs 43.2±14.0; P=.036), but there were no differences in average scores between prolapse groups for other scales. For all urinary outcomes, average scores were significantly lower (improved) at 3 and 12 months compared with baseline (all P<.05). In mixed-effects models, there were no statistically significant interactions between pelvic organ prolapse measurement and visit and time-dependent prolapse treatment groups (P>.05 for all regression interaction coefficients). The Lower Urinary Tract Symptoms Tool obstructive severity score had a statistically significant positive association with Pelvic Organ Prolapse Quantification System Ba, Bp, and point of maximum vaginal descent. The Lower Urinary Tract Symptoms Tool total severity scale had a statistically significant negative association with Pelvic Organ Prolapse Quantification System Ba and point of maximum vaginal descent. No other associations between prolapse and lower urinary tract symptoms were significant (P>.05 for all regression coefficients). Symptom differences between prolapse groups were small: all regression coefficients (interpretable as additive percentage change in each score) were between -5 and 5 (standard deviation of outcomes ranged from 14.0-32.4). CONCLUSION: Among treatment-seeking women with urinary symptoms, obstructive symptoms were positively associated with prolapse, and overall lower urinary tract symptom severity was negatively associated with prolapse. Lower Urinary Tract Symptoms Tool scores improved over 12 months regardless of prolapse status, including in those with treated prolapse, untreated prolapse, and without prolapse.

Development and Validation of a Model for Predicting Surgical Site Infection After Pelvic Organ Prolapse Surgery.

IMPORTANCE: Surgical site infection (SSI) is a common and costly complication. Targeted interventions in high-risk patients may lead to a reduction in SSI; at present, there is no method to consistently identify patients at increased risk of SSI. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to develop and validate a model for predicting risk of SSI after pelvic organ prolapse surgery. STUDY DESIGN: Women undergoing surgery between 2011 and 2017 were identified using Current Procedural Terminology codes from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services 5% Limited Data Set. Surgical site infection ≤90 days of surgery was the primary outcome, with 41 candidate predictors identified, including demographics, comorbidities, and perioperative variables. Generalized linear regression was used to fit a full specified model, including all predictors and a reduced penalized model approximating the full model. Model performance was measured using the c-statistic, Brier score, and calibration curves. Accuracy measures were internally validated using bootstrapping to correct for bias and overfitting. Decision curves were used to determine the net benefit of using the model. RESULTS: Of 12,334 women, 4.7% experienced SSI. The approximated model included 10 predictors. Model accuracy was acceptable (bias-corrected c-statistic [95% confidence interval], 0.603 [0.578-0.624]; Brier score, 0.045). The model was moderately calibrated when predicting up to 5-6 times the average risk of SSI between 0 and 25-30%. There was a net benefit for clinical use when risk thresholds for intervention were between 3% and 12%. CONCLUSIONS: This model provides estimates of probability of SSI within 90 days after pelvic organ prolapse surgery and demonstrates net benefit when considering prevention strategies to reduce SSI.

Development and Validation of a Model for Opioid Prescribing Following Gynecological Surgery.

Importance: Overprescription of opioid medications following surgery is well documented. Current prescribing models have been proposed in narrow patient populations, which limits their generalizability. Objective: To develop and validate a model for predicting outpatient opioid use following a range of gynecological surgical procedures. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this prognostic study, statistical models were explored using data from a training cohort of participants undergoing gynecological surgery for benign and malignant indications enrolled prospectively at a single institution's academic gynecologic oncology practice from February 2018 to March 2019 (cohort 1) and considering 39 candidate predictors of opioid use. Final models were internally validated using a separate testing cohort enrolled from May 2019 to February 2020 (cohort 2). The best final model was updated by combining cohorts, and an online calculator was created. Data analysis was performed from March to May 2020. Exposures: Participants completed a preoperative survey and weekly postoperative assessments (up to 6 weeks) following gynecological surgery. Pain management was at the discretion of clinical practitioners. Main Outcomes and Measures: The response variable used in model development was number of pills used postoperatively, and the primary outcome was model performance using ordinal concordance and Brier score. Results: Data from 382 female adult participants (mean age, 56 years; range, 18-87 years) undergoing gynecological surgery (minimally invasive procedures, 158 patients [73%] in cohort 1 and 118 patients [71%] in cohort 2; open surgical procedures, 58 patients [27%] in cohort 1 and 48 patients [29%] in cohort 2) were included in model development. One hundred forty-seven patients (38%) used 0 pills after hospital discharge, and the mean (SD) number of pills used was 7 (10) (median [IQR], 3 [0-10] pills). The model used 7 predictors: age, educational attainment, smoking history, anticipated pain medication use, anxiety regarding surgery, operative time, and preoperative pregabalin administration. The ordinal concordance was 0.65 (95% CI, 0.62-0.68) for predicting 5 or more pills (Brier score, 0.22), 0.65 (95% CI, 0.62-0.68) for predicting 10 or more pills (Brier score, 0.18), and 0.65 (95% CI, 0.62-0.68) for predicting 15 or more pills (Brier score, 0.14). Conclusions and Relevance: This model provides individualized estimates of outpatient opioid use following a range of gynecological surgical procedures for benign and malignant indications with all model inputs available at the time of procedure closing. Implementation of this model into the clinical setting is currently ongoing, with plans for additional validation in other surgical populations.

Subtyping of common complex diseases and disorders by integrating heterogeneous data. Identifying clusters among women with lower urinary tract symptoms in the LURN study.

We present a methodology for subtyping of persons with a common clinical symptom complex by integrating heterogeneous continuous and categorical data. We illustrate it by clustering women with lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS), who represent a heterogeneous cohort with overlapping symptoms and multifactorial etiology. Data collected in the Symptoms of Lower Urinary Tract Dysfunction Research Network (LURN), a multi-center observational study, included self-reported urinary and non-urinary symptoms, bladder diaries, and physical examination data for 545 women. Heterogeneity in these multidimensional data required thorough and non-trivial preprocessing, including scaling by controls and weighting to mitigate data redundancy, while the various data types (continuous and categorical) required novel methodology using a weighted Tanimoto indices approach. Data domains only available on a subset of the cohort were integrated using a semi-supervised clustering approach. Novel contrast criterion for determination of the optimal number of clusters in consensus clustering was introduced and compared with existing criteria. Distinctiveness of the clusters was confirmed by using multiple criteria for cluster quality, and by testing for significantly different variables in pairwise comparisons of the clusters. Cluster dynamics were explored by analyzing longitudinal data at 3- and 12-month follow-up. Five clusters of women with LUTS were identified using the developed methodology. None of the clusters could be characterized by a single symptom, but rather by a distinct combination of symptoms with various levels of severity. Targeted proteomics of serum samples demonstrated that differentially abundant proteins and affected pathways are different across the clusters. The clinical relevance of the identified clusters is discussed and compared with the current conventional approaches to the evaluation of LUTS patients. The rationale and thought process are described for the selection of procedures for data preprocessing, clustering, and cluster evaluation. Suggestions are provided for minimum reporting requirements in publications utilizing clustering methodology with multiple heterogeneous data domains.

Quantifying the Added Value of 2 Common Frailty Measures for Predicting Adverse Outcomes After Elective Hysterectomy.

IMPORTANCE: Although frailty is predictive of adverse outcomes in predominantly male general and orthopedic surgical populations, the utility of American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program-based frailty measurement for hysterectomy is unclear. OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to measure the added contribution of the modified frailty index (mFI) and Risk Analysis Index (RAI) for predicting adverse outcomes after hysterectomy. STUDY DESIGN: A secondary analysis of the 2011 to 2014 American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement database was conducted. Benign elective hysterectomy by any route was included. The primary outcome was readmission within 30 days of surgery. Secondary outcomes were major (Clavien-Dindo grade ≥3) and minor (grade 1-2) complications. The fraction of new prognostic information attributable to each frailty measure was estimated by the ratio of model likelihood-ratio χ 2 values compared with a baseline model, including American Society of Anesthesiologists classification, age, body mass index (BMI), smoking status, and surgical route. RESULTS: Among 70,649 cases, 3.0% (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.9-3.1) were readmitted within 30 days and 2.8% (95% CI, 2.7-2.9) and 5.2% (95% CI, 5.0-5.4) had major and minor complications, respectively. The RAI provided a greater fraction of new prognostic information than the mFI when predicting readmission (4.8 vs 2.7%) and major complications (4.8 vs 2.3%). Interaction analysis showed a stronger association of frailty and outcomes among individuals undergoing abdominal hysterectomy and with BMI of 40 of higher or less than 20. CONCLUSIONS: The RAI and mFI provided modest improvement in the ability to predict adverse outcomes, which limits its clinical utility. Surgeons may consider selective utilization among those individuals undergoing abdominal hysterectomy or with BMI of 40 of higher or less than 20.

Trends in Performance of Anti-Incontinence Treatment at the Time of Pelvic Organ Prolapse Repair From 2011 to 2019.

IMPORTANCE: There are no publications on national trends in performance of concomitant stress urinary incontinence (SUI) treatment with pelvic organ prolapse surgery over the past decade. OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to describe trends in the performance and type of concomitant SUI treatment from 2011 to 2019. STUDY DESIGN: Surgical procedures for pelvic organ prolapse and coding for prolapse repair were identified from the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database. An autoregressive interrupted time series model estimated temporal trends in concomitant SUI treatment associated with 3 consequential events: U.S. Food and Drug Administration's (FDA) requirement for postmarketing studies from mesh manufacturers (January 2012), publication of the Outcomes following Vaginal Prolapse Repair and Midurethral Sling (OPUS) trial (June 2012), and the FDA's reclassification of vaginal mesh as a high-risk device (January 2016). RESULTS: There were 43,370 cases identified. The rate of concomitant SUI treatment decreased from 46.1% to 35.7% across the analysis period. No significant trend before postmarketing studies (-0.2%; 95% confidence interval [CI], -0.8 to 1.1) was observed. After postmarketing studies, there was a downward deflection of -2.0% per quarter (95% CI, -3.6 to -0.4). After OPUS, we observed a flattening of the trend to -0.2% (95% CI, -0.8 to 0.4) that persisted after FDA reclassification. Sling procedures remained predominant (96.2% of SUI procedures) and performance of urethropexy decreased across the analysis period (-0.1%; 95% CI, -0.08 to -0.2). CONCLUSIONS: After the FDA's order for postmarketing studies, rates of concomitant SUI treatment significantly decreased. Rates stabilized after the OPUS trial at around 35% and did not subsequently change. Rates of nonmesh concomitant SUI treatment decreased during the analysis period.

A framework for the oversight and local deployment of safe and high-quality prediction models.

Artificial intelligence/machine learning models are being rapidly developed and used in clinical practice. However, many models are deployed without a clear understanding of clinical or operational impact and frequently lack monitoring plans that can detect potential safety signals. There is a lack of consensus in establishing governance to deploy, pilot, and monitor algorithms within operational healthcare delivery workflows. Here, we describe a governance framework that combines current regulatory best practices and lifecycle management of predictive models being used for clinical care. Since January 2021, we have successfully added models to our governance portfolio and are currently managing 52 models.

Changes in Performance of Apical Suspension at the Time of Surgery for Prolapse: Assessment of the Influence of the American Urogynecologic Society and American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists Practice Bulletin.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the association of publication of the American Urogynecologic Society (AUGS)/American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (ACOG) Practice Bulletin on pelvic organ prolapse and performance of an apical suspension at the time of surgery for pelvic organ prolapse. METHODS: Surgical procedures performed with a primary diagnosis of uterovaginal or female genital prolapse, cystocele, or enterocele were isolated from the 2011 to 2019 American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Database. An autoregressive interrupted time series regression estimated the overall temporal trend in performance of an apical suspension and assessed for a change in trend associated with publication of the AUGS/ACOG Practice Bulletin in April 2017. A stratified analysis was also performed depending on performance of a concomitant hysterectomy, and sensitivity analysis was performed using only diagnoses of uterovaginal or vaginal vault prolapse. RESULTS: There were 72,194 individuals identified; 83.4% had a diagnosis of uterovaginal or female genital prolapse, 15.2% cystocele and 1.4% enterocele. Only 36.6% of cases had an apical suspension. Prior to the practice bulletin publication, performance of an apical suspension grew at 0.19% per quarter (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.07-0.31), with a trend toward increased utilization (+0.12%; 95% CI, -0.06 to 0.30) after publication. The increase was greater among cases with a concomitant hysterectomy (+0.35%; 95% CI, 0.08-0.62). Sensitivity analyses found similar changes in trend. CONCLUSIONS: Performance of apical suspensions during surgery for prolapse remains low and is increasing at less than 1% per year. The AUGS/ACOG practice guidelines were associated with minimal changes in this pattern. Incentives or other strategies may be needed to further encourage standard of care management of prolapse.

External Validation of Postpartum Hemorrhage Prediction Models Using Electronic Health Record Data.

OBJECTIVE: A recent study leveraging machine learning methods found that postpartum hemorrhage (PPH) can be predicted accurately at the time of labor admission in the U.S. Consortium for Safe Labor (CSL) dataset, with a C-statistic as high as 0.93. These CSL models were developed in older data (2002-2008) and used an estimated blood loss (EBL) of ≥1,000 mL to define PPH. We sought to externally validate these models using a more recent cohort of births where blood loss was measured using quantitative blood loss (QBL) methods. STUDY DESIGN: Using data from 5,261 deliveries between February 1, 2019 and May 11, 2020 at a single tertiary hospital, we mapped our electronic health record (EHR) data to the 55 predictors described in previously published CSL models. PPH was defined as QBL ≥1,000 mL within 24 hours after delivery. Model discrimination and calibration of the four CSL models were measured using our cohort. In a secondary analysis, we fit new models in our study cohort using the same predictors and algorithms as the original CSL models. RESULTS: The original study cohort had a substantially lower rate of PPH, 4.8% (7,279/228,438) versus 25% (1,321/5,261), possibly due to differences in measurement. The CSL models had lower discrimination in our study cohort, with a C-statistic as high as 0.57 (logistic regression). Models refit in our study cohort achieved better discrimination, with a C-statistic as high as 0.64 (random forest). Calibration improved in the refit models as compared with the original models. CONCLUSION: The CSL models' accuracy was lower in a contemporary EHR where PPH is assessed using QBL. As institutions continue to adopt QBL methods, further data are needed to understand the differences between EBL and QBL to enable accurate prediction of PPH. KEY POINTS: · Machine learning methods may help predict PPH.. · EBL models do not generalize when QBL is used.. · Blood loss estimation alters model accuracy..

Predicting outcomes after intradetrusor onabotulinumtoxina for non-neurogenic urgency incontinence in women.

AIMS: Develop models to predict outcomes after intradetrusor injection of 100 or 200 units of onabotulinumtoxinA in women with non-neurogenic urgency urinary incontinence (UUI). METHODS: Models were developed using 307 women from two randomized trials assessing efficacy of onabotulinumtoxinA for non-neurogenic UUI. Cox, linear and logistic regression models were fit using: (1) time to recurrence over 12 months, (2) change from baseline daily UUI episodes (UUIE) at 6 months, and (3) need for self-catheterization over 6 months. Model discrimination of Cox and logistic regression models was calculated using c-index. Mean absolute error determined accuracy of the linear model. Calibration was demonstrated using calibration curves. All models were internally validated using bootstrapping. RESULTS: Median time to recurrence was 6 (interquartile range [IQR]: 2-12) months. Increasing age, 200 units of onabotulinumtoxinA, higher body mass index (BMI) and baseline UUIE were associated with decreased time to recurrence. The c-index was 0.63 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.59, 0.67). Median change in daily UUIE from baseline at 6 months was -3.5 (IQR: -5.0, -2.3). Increasing age, lower baseline UUIE, 200 units of onabotulinumtoxinA, higher BMI and IIQ-SF were associated with less improvement in UUIE. The mean absolute error predicting change in UUIE was accurate to 1.6 (95% CI: 1.5, 1.7) UUI episodes. The overall rate of self-catheterization was 17.6% (95% CI: 13.6%-22.4%). Lower BMI, 200 units of onabotulinumtoxinA, increased baseline postvoid residual and maximum capacity were associated with higher risk of self-catheterization. The c-index was 0.66 (95% CI: 0.61, 0.76). The three calculators are available at http://riskcalc.duke.edu. CONCLUSIONS: After external validation, these models will assist clinicians in providing more accurate estimates of expected treatment outcomes after onabotulinumtoxinA for non-neurogenic UUI in women.

Subgroups of failure after surgery for pelvic organ prolapse and associations with quality of life outcomes: a longitudinal cluster analysis.

BACKGROUND: Treatment outcomes after pelvic organ prolapse surgery are often presented as dichotomous "success or failure" based on anatomic and symptom criteria. However, clinical experience suggests that some women with outcome "failures" are asymptomatic and perceive their surgery to be successful and that other women have anatomic resolution but continue to report symptoms. Characterizing failure types could be a useful step to clarify definitions of success, understand mechanisms of failure, and identify individuals who may benefit from specific therapies. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to identify clusters of women with similar failure patterns over time and assess associations among clusters and the Pelvic Organ Prolapse Distress Inventory, Short-Form Six-Dimension health index, Patient Global Impression of Improvement, patient satisfaction item questionnaire, and quality-adjusted life-year. STUDY DESIGN: Outcomes were evaluated for up to 5 years in a cohort of participants (N=709) with stage ≥2 pelvic organ prolapse who underwent surgical pelvic organ prolapse repair and had sufficient follow-up in 1 of 4 multicenter surgical trials conducted by the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Pelvic Floor Disorders Network. Surgical success was defined as a composite measure requiring anatomic success (Pelvic Organ Prolapse Quantification system points Ba, Bp, and C of ≤0), subjective success (absence of bothersome vaginal bulge symptoms), and absence of retreatment for pelvic organ prolapse. Participants who experienced surgical failure and attended ≥4 visits from baseline to 60 months after surgery were longitudinally clustered, accounting for similar trajectories in Ba, Bp, and C and degree of vaginal bulge bother; moreover, missing data were imputed. Participants with surgical success were grouped into a separate cluster. RESULTS: Surgical failure was reported in 276 of 709 women (39%) included in the analysis. Failures clustered into the following 4 mutually exclusive subgroups: (1) asymptomatic intermittent anterior wall failures, (2) symptomatic intermittent anterior wall failures, (3) asymptomatic intermittent anterior and posterior wall failures, and (4) symptomatic all-compartment failures. Each cluster had different bulge symptoms, anatomy, and retreatment associations with quality of life outcomes. Asymptomatic intermittent anterior wall failures (n=150) were similar to surgical successes with Ba values that averaged around -1 cm but fluctuated between anatomic success (Ba≤0) and failure (Ba>0) over time. Symptomatic intermittent anterior wall failures (n=82) were anatomically similar to asymptomatic intermittent anterior failures, but women in this cluster persistently reported bothersome bulge symptoms and the lowest quality of life, Short-Form Six-Dimension health index scores, and perceived success. Women with asymptomatic intermittent anterior and posterior wall failures (n=28) had the most severe preoperative pelvic organ prolapse but the lowest symptomatic failure rate and retreatment rate. Participants with symptomatic all-compartment failures (n=16) had symptomatic and anatomic failure early after surgery and the highest retreatment of any cluster. CONCLUSION: In particular, the following 4 clusters of pelvic organ prolapse surgical failure were identified in participants up to 5 years after pelvic organ prolapse surgery: asymptomatic intermittent anterior wall failures, symptomatic intermittent anterior wall failures, asymptomatic intermittent anterior and posterior wall failures, and symptomatic all-compartment failures. These groups provide granularity about the nature of surgical failures after pelvic organ prolapse surgery. Future work is planned for predicting these distinct outcomes using patient characteristics that can be used for counseling women individually.

Design of a Randomized Controlled Trial of Percutaneous Posterior Tibial Nerve Stimulation for the Treatment of Refractory Fecal Incontinence in Women: The NeurOmodulaTion for Accidental Bowel Leakage Study.

OBJECTIVES: High-level evidence for second-line noninvasive treatments for fecal incontinence in women is limited. We present the rationale for and design of the NeuromOdulaTion for Accidental Bowel Leakage trial, a randomized controlled trial of percutaneous tibial nerve stimulation (PTNS) and validated sham stimulation in women with refractory accidental bowel leakage. METHODS: The rationale and goals for a 2-part study with a run-in phase, use of a generic pulse generator for PTNS and sham stimulation, masking, participant inclusion, primary and secondary outcome measures, and adverse event collection are described. A superiority design will be used to compare change from baseline in St. Mark's score after 12 weekly stimulation sessions between PTNS and sham. Responders to initial treatment (PTNS or sham) will be assigned to scheduled or "as needed" intervention for up to 1 year. Secondary outcome measures include incontinence episodes and other bowel events recorded in a 14-day electronic bowel diary, general and condition-specific quality of life instruments, adaptive behavior, global impression of improvement, symptom control, and sexual function. RESULTS: Sample size calculations determined that 165 participants (110 PTNS and 55 sham) would provide 90% power to detect greater than or equal to 4-point difference between PTNS and sham in change from baseline in St. Mark's score at 12 weeks. CONCLUSIONS: The methods for the NeuromOdulaTion for Accidental Bowel Leakage trial will provide high-level evidence of the effectiveness and optimal maintenance therapy schedule of a low-cost PTNS protocol in community-dwelling women seeking second-line intervention for refractory accidental bowel leakage.