Burden of 30 cancers among men: Global statistics in 2022 and projections for 2050 using population-based estimates.

BACKGROUND: Men exhibit higher prevalence of modifiable risk factors, such as smoking and alcohol consumption, leading to greater cancer incidence and lower survival rates. Comprehensive evidence on global cancer burden among men, including disparities by age group and country, is sparse. To address this, the authors analyzed 30 cancer types among men in 2022, with projections estimated for 2050. METHODS: The 2022 GLOBOCAN estimates were used to describe cancer statistics for men in 185 countries/territories worldwide. Mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs) were calculated by dividing age-standardized mortality rates by incidence rates. RESULTS: In 2022, a high MIR (indicating poor survival) was observed among older men (aged 65 years and older; 61%) for rare cancer types (pancreatic cancer, 91%) and in countries with low a Human Development Index (HDI; 74%). Between 2022 and 2050, cancer cases are projected to increase from 10.3 million to 19 million (≥84%). Deaths are projected to increase from 5.4 million to 10.5 million (≥93%), with a greater than two-fold increase among men aged 65 years and older (≥117%) and for low-HDI and medium-HDI countries/territories (≥160%). Cancer cases and deaths are projected to increase among working-age groups (≥39%) and very-high-HDI countries/territories (≥50%). CONCLUSIONS: Substantial disparities in cancer cases and deaths were observed among men in 2022, and these are projected to widen by 2050. Strengthening health infrastructure, enhancing workforce quality and access, fostering national and international collaborations, and promoting universal health coverage are crucial to reducing cancer disparities and ensuring cancer equity among men globally.

The intergenerational association of preterm birth: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Around half of preterm births lack identifiable causes, indicating the need for further investigation to understand preterm birth risk factors. Existing studies on the intergenerational association of preterm birth showed inconsistency in effect size and direction. OBJECTIVE: This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to review existing studies and provide comprehensive evidence on the intergenerational association of preterm births. SEARCH STRATEGY: We searched MEDLINE, Embase and Maternity and Infant Care databases, from the inception of each database to 04 April 2024. SELECTION CRITERIA: Eligibility criteria included studies that reported on women who had given birth and had recorded information about a family history of preterm birth in one or both of the child's biological parents. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Data were extracted by two independent reviewers. A random-effects model was used to compute pooled estimates using odds ratios. MAIN RESULTS: Sixteen eligible studies with a total of 2 271 612 mothers were included. The findings indicated a 1.44 (OR = 1.44, 95% CI: 1.34, 1.54) fold increase in odds of giving preterm births among women who were born preterm. Additionally, having a sibling born preterm (OR = 1.53, 95% CI: 1.24, 1.87) and having a partner born preterm (OR = 1.12, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.25) were associated with increased likelihood of giving preterm births among women. CONCLUSION: The study revealed that women with a family history of preterm birth face an increased risk of giving preterm births. Screening pregnant women for a family history of preterm birth is essential, with those having a positive family history requiring closer follow-up.

Population modifiable risk factors associated with neonatal mortality in 35 sub-Saharan Africa countries: analysis of data from demographic and health surveys.

Background: Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has the highest burden of neonatal mortality in the world. Identifying the most critical modifiable risk factors is imperative for reducing neonatal mortality rates. This study is the first to calculate population-attributable fractions (PAFs) for modifiable risk factors of neonatal mortality in SSA. Methods: We analysed the most recent Demographic and Health Surveys data sets from 35 SSA countries conducted between 2010 and 2022. Generalized linear latent and mixed models were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) along with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). PAFs adjusted for communality were calculated using ORs and prevalence estimates for key modifiable risk factors. Subregional analyses were conducted to examine variations in modifiable risk factors for neonatal mortality across Central, Eastern, Southern, and Western SSA regions. Findings: In this study, we included 255,891 live births in the five years before the survey. The highest PAFs of neonatal mortality among singleton children were attributed to delayed initiation of breastfeeding (>1 h after birth: PAF = 23.88%; 95% CI: 15.91, 24.86), uncleaned cooking fuel (PAF = 5.27%; 95% CI: 1.41, 8.73), mother's lacking formal education (PAF = 4.34%; 95% CI: 1.15, 6.31), mother's lacking tetanus vaccination (PAF = 3.54%; 95% CI: 1.55, 4.92), and infrequent antenatal care (ANC) visits (PAF = 2.45; 95% CI: 0.76, 3.63). Together, these five modifiable risk factors were associated with 39.49% (95% CI: 21.13, 48.44) of neonatal deaths among singleton children in SSA. Our subregional analyses revealed some variations in modifiable risk factors for neonatal mortality. Notably, delayed initiation of breastfeeding consistently contributed to the highest PAFs of neonatal mortality across all four regions of SSA: Central, Eastern, Southern, and Western SSA. Interpretation: The PAF estimates in the present study indicate that a considerable proportion of neonatal deaths in SSA are preventable. We identified five modifiable risk factors that accounted for approximately 40% of neonatal deaths in SSA. The findings have policy implications. Funding: None.

One-Year Anti-VEGF Therapy Outcomes in Diabetic Macular Edema Based on Treatment Intensity: Data from the Fight Retinal Blindness! Registry.

PURPOSE: To compare 1-year outcomes of eyes with diabetic macular edema (DME) treated in routine clinical practice based on the proportion of visits where intravitreal VEGF inhibitor injections were delivered. DESIGN: Cohort study. PARTICIPANTS: There were 2288 treatment-naive eyes with DME starting intravitreal VEGF inhibitor therapy from October 31, 2015 to October 31, 2021 from the Fight Retinal Blindness! international outcomes registry. METHODS: Eyes were grouped according to the proportion of visits at which an injection was received, Group A with less than the median of 67% (n = 1172) versus Group B with greater than the median (n = 1116). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Mean visual acuity (VA) change after 12 months of treatment. RESULTS: The mean (95% confidence interval [CI]) VA change after 12 months of treatment was 3.6 (2.8-4.4) letters for eyes in Group A versus 5.2 (4.4-5.9) letters for eyes in Group B (P = 0.005). The mean (95% CI) central subfield thickness (CST) change was -69 (-76 to -61) µm and -85 (-92 to -78) µm for eyes in Group A versus Group B, respectively (P = 0.002). A moderate positive correlation was observed between the number of injections received over 12 months of treatment and the change in VA (P < 0.001). Additionally, eyes that received more injections had a moderately greater CST reduction. CONCLUSIONS: This registry analysis found that overall VA and anatomic outcomes tended to be better in DME eyes treated at a greater proportion of visits in the first year of intravitreal VEGF inhibitor therapy. FINANCIAL DISCLOSURE(S): Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found in the Footnotes and Disclosures at the end of this article.

Population modifiable risk factors associated with under-5 acute respiratory tract infections and diarrhoea in 25 countries in sub-Saharan Africa (2014-2021): an analysis of data from demographic and health surveys.

Background: Identifying the critical modifiable risk factors for acute respiratory tract infections (ARIs) and diarrhoea is crucial to reduce the burden of disease and mortality among children under 5 years of age in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and ultimately achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We investigated the modifiable risk factors of ARI and diarrhoea among children under five using nationally representative surveys. Methods: We used the most recent demographic and health survey (DHS) data (2014-2021) from 25 SSA countries, encompassing a total of 253,167 children. Countries were selected based on the availability of recent datasets (e.g., DHS-VII or DHS-VIII) that represent the current socioeconomic situations. Generalised linear latent mixed models were used to compute odds ratios (ORs). Population attributable fractions (PAFs) were calculated using adjusted ORs and prevalence estimates for key modifiable risk factors among ARI and diarrhoeal cases. Findings: This study involved 253,167 children, with a mean age of 28.7 (±17.3) months, and 50.5% were male. The highest PAFs for ARI were attributed to unclean cooking fuel (PAF = 15.7%; 95% CI: 8.1, 23.1), poor maternal education (PAF = 13.4%; 95% CI: 8.7, 18.5), delayed initiation of breastfeeding (PAF = 12.4%; 95% CI: 9.0, 15.3), and poor toilets (PAF = 8.5%; 95% CI: 4.7, 11.9). These four modifiable risk factors contributed to 41.5% (95% CI: 27.2, 52.9) of ARI cases in SSA. The largest PAFs of diarrhoea were observed for unclean cooking fuel (PAF = 17.3%; 95% CI: 13.5, 22.3), delayed initiation of breastfeeding (PAF = 9.2%; 95% CI: 7.5, 10.5), household poverty (PAF = 7.0%; 95% CI: 5.0, 9.1) and poor maternal education (PAF = 5.6%; 95% CI: 2.9, 8.8). These four modifiable risk factors contributed to 34.0% (95% CI: 26.2, 42.3) of cases of diarrhoea in SSA. Interpretation: This cross-sectional study identified four modifiable risk factors for ARI and diarrhoea that should be a priority for policymakers in SSA. Enhancing home-based care and leveraging female community health workers is crucial for accelerating the reduction in under-5 mortality linked to ARI and diarrhoea in SSA. Funding: None.

Unmet Supportive Care Needs Among Cancer Patients in Sub-Saharan African Countries: A Mixed Method Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Supportive cancer care is vital to reducing the current disparities in cancer outcomes in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), including poor survival and low quality of life, and ultimately achieving equity in cancer care. This is the first review aimed to evaluate the extent of unmet supportive care needs and identify their contributing factors among patients with cancer in SSA. METHODS: Six electronic databases (CINAHL, Embase, Medline [Ovid], PsycINFO, PubMed, and Cochrane Library of Databases] were systematically searched. Studies that addressed one or more domains of unmet supportive cancer care needs were included. Findings were analyzed using narrative analysis and meta-analysis, as appropriate. RESULT: Eleven articles out of 2732 were retained in the review. The pooled prevalence of perceived unmet need for cancer care in SSA was 63% (95% CI: 45, 81) for physical, 59% (95% CI: 45, 72) for health information and system, 58% (95% CI: 42, 74) for psychological, 44% (95% CI: 29, 59) for patient care and support, and 43% (95% CI: 23, 63) for sexual. Older age, female sex, rural residence, advanced cancer stage, and low access to health information were related to high rates of multiple unmet needs within supportive care domains. CONCLUSION: In SSA, optimal cancer care provision was low, up to two-thirds of patients reported unmet needs for one or more domains. Strengthening efforts to develop comprehensive and integrated systems for supportive care services are keys to improving the clinical outcome, survival, and quality of life of cancer patients in SSA.

Global burden of 34 cancers among women in 2020 and projections to 2040: Population-based data from 185 countries/territories.

Globally women face inequality in cancer outcomes; for example, smaller improvements in life expectancy due to decreased cancer-related deaths than men (0.5 vs 0.8 years, 1981-2010). However, comprehensive global evidence on the burden of cancer among women (including by reproductive age spectrum) as well as disparities by region, remains limited. This study aimed to address these evidence gaps by considering 34 cancer types in 2020 and their projections for 2040. The cancer burden among women in 2020 was estimated using population-based data from 185 countries/territories sourced from GLOBOCAN. Mortality to Incidence Ratios (MIR), a proxy for survival, were estimated by dividing the age-standardised mortality rates by the age-standardised incidence rates. Demographic projections were performed to 2040. In 2020, there were an estimated 9.3 million cancer cases and 4.4 million cancer deaths globally. Projections showed an increase to 13.3 million (↑44%) and 7.1 million (↑60%) in 2040, respectively, with larger proportional increases in low- and middle-income countries. MIR among women was higher (poorer survival) in rare cancers and with increasing age. Countries with low Human Development Indexes (HDIs) had higher MIRs (69%) than countries with very high HDIs (30%). There was inequality in cancer incidence and mortality worldwide among women in 2020, which will further widen by 2040. Implementing cancer prevention efforts and providing basic cancer treatments by expanding universal health coverage through a human rights approach, expanding early screening opportunities and strengthening medical infrastructure are key to improving and ensuring equity in cancer control and outcomes.

Birth asphyxia related mortality in Northwest Ethiopia: A multi-centre cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Birth asphyxia is the second leading cause of neonatal death in Ethiopia, next to preterm-associated infections. Understanding the causes of death in asphyxiated newborns will help to design appropriate care. This study identifies predictors of neonatal mortality in asphyxiated newborns in selected hospitals in Northwest Ethiopia. METHODS: An institution-based prospective cohort study of 480 newborns with birth asphyxia was conducted at Debre Markos Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Shegaw Motta District Hospital, and Injibara General Hospital. All newborns with asphyxia admitted to the neonatal critical care unit from the first of November 2018 to the first of November 2019 were included. Data were obtained prospectively from mothers using an interviewer's administered questionnaire. The Kaplan-Meier survival curve was used to estimate survival time, and Log rank test was used to compare the survival curves. Bivariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were fitted to identify the independent predictors of mortality in asphyxiated newborns. Adjusted hazard Ratios (AHRs) with 95% Cis (Confidence Intervals) were used to measure the strength of association and test statistical significance. RESULTS: The overall cumulative incidence of mortality among asphyxiated newborns was 42.29% (95% CI: 38%, 46). Asphyxiated neonates with other comorbidities (sepsis, neonatal anemia) (AHR = 2.63, 95% CI:1.69, 4.10), oxygen saturation of 50-69 (AHR = 4.62, 95% CI:2.55, 8.37), oxygen saturation of 70-89 (AHR = 2.82, 95% CI: 1.80, 4.42), severe Apgar score at one minute (AHR = 1.59, 95% CI:1.12, 2.25), neonates with Hypoxic Ischemic Encephalopathy (HIE) (AHR = 6.12, 95% CI:2.23, 16.75) were at higher risk of mortality. CONCLUSIONS: The mortality rate among asphyxiated neonates remains high, and slightly higher than previous studies. Asphyxiated newborns with other comorbidities, severe Apgar score at one minute, who develop HIE, and low oxygen saturation were at higher risk of death. Therefore, designing appropriate interventions and prevention methods should be considered for identified variables.

The effect of distance to health facility on neonatal mortality in Ethiopia.

INTRODUCTION: In Ethiopia, more than half of newborn babies do not have access to Emergency Obstetric and Neonatal Care (EmONC) services. Understanding the effect of distance to health facilities on service use and neonatal survival is crucial to recommend policymakers and improving resource distribution. We aimed to investigate the effect of distance to health services on maternal service use and neonatal mortality. METHODS: We implemented a data integration method based on geographic coordinates. We calculated straight-line (Euclidean) distances from the Ethiopian 2016 demographic and health survey (EDHS) clusters to the closest health facility. We computed the distance in ESRI ArcGIS Version 10.3 using the geographic coordinates of DHS clusters and health facilities. Generalised Structural Equation Modelling (GSEM) was used to estimate the effect of distance on neonatal mortality. RESULTS: Poor geographic accessibility to health facilities affects maternal service usage and increases the risk of newborn mortality. For every ten kilometres (km) increase in distance to a health facility, the odds of neonatal mortality increased by 1.33% (95% CI: 1.06% to 1.67%). Distance also negatively affected antenatal care, facility delivery and postnatal counselling service use. CONCLUSIONS: A lack of geographical access to health facilities decreases the likelihood of newborns surviving their first month of life and affects health services use during pregnancy and immediately after birth. The study also showed that antenatal care use was positively associated with facility delivery service use and that both positively influenced postnatal care use, demonstrating the interconnectedness of the components of continuum of care for maternal and neonatal care services. Policymakers can leverage the findings from this study to improve accessibility barriers to health services.

Dental caries and associated factors among diabetic and nondiabetic adult patients attending Bichena Primary Hospital's Outpatient Department.

Purpose: Dental caries is a significant public health issue affecting both the diabetic and nondiabetic populations. However, the problem and associated factors of dental caries among diabetics and nondiabetics patients are not well-known in Ethiopia. This study aims to compare the prevalence of dental caries and associated factors among diabetic and nondiabetic patients at the Outpatient Department of Bichena Primary Hospital in Northwest, Ethiopia. Methods: Institutional based, comparative cross-sectional study was conducted from October 7 to December 6, 2019, among 200 diabetes and 400 nondiabetic adult patients. A consecutive sampling technique was implemented to recruit study participants. Data were collected by a pretested structured questionnaire and analysis was performed in Statistical Package for Social Science version 20. Bivariable and multivariable logistic regressions were employed and variables with a p-value < 0.05 were declared statistically significant. Results: A total of 582 patients were involved in the study with a response rate of 97.0%. The prevalence of dental caries was 67.9% [95% confidence interval (CI): 63.2%-72.8%] and 79.6% (95% CI: 74.0%-85.70%) in nondiabetic and diabetic group, respectively. Females gender [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 1.79, 95% CI: 1.15-2.77], poor oral hygiene (AOR = 2.95, 95% CI: 1.71-5.11), lack of regular teeth cleaning habits (AOR = 3.26, 95% CI: 2.13-4.97), feeling dry mouth (AOR = 2.31, 95% CI: 1.11-4.81), sugared tea drinking (AOR = 2.00, 95% CI: 1.18-3.38), inadequate oral health knowledge (AOR = 3.51, 95% CI: 2.19-5.62), and khat chewing (AOR = 2.14, 95% CI: 1.24-3.71) were significantly associated factors with high prevalence of dental caries. Conclusion: The prevalence of caries was significantly higher among diabetics than nondiabetics. Oral health education with preventive measures such as improving teeth cleaning practice, reducing sugary foods and drinks intake, and improving oral hygiene practice of patients should be mainstreamed along with diabetic follow-up care.

Bayesian spatial analysis of factors influencing neonatal mortality and its geographic variation in Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Ethiopia is a Sub-Saharan country with very high neonatal mortality rates, varying across its regions. The rate of neonatal mortality reduction in Ethiopia is slow, and Ethiopia may not meet the third United Nations sustainable development target by 2030. This study aimed to investigate the spatial variations and contributing factors for neonatal mortality rates in Ethiopia. METHODS: We analysed data from the 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS), which used a two-stage cluster sampling technique with a census enumeration area as primary and households as secondary sampling units. A Bayesian spatial logistic regression model using the Stochastic Partial Differential Equation (SPDE) method was fitted accounting for socio-economic, health service-related and geographic factors. RESULTS: Higher neonatal mortality rates were observed in eastern, northeastern and southeastern Ethiopia, and the Somali region had higher risks of neonatal mortality. Neonates from frequently drought-affected areas had a higher mortality risk than less drought-affected areas. Application of traditional substances on the cord increased the risk of neonatal mortality (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) = 2.07, 95% Credible Interval (CrI): 1.12 to 4.30) and getting health facility delivery services had a lower odds of neonatal mortality (AOR = 0.60, 95% CrI: 0.37, 0.98). CONCLUSIONS: Residing in drought-affected areas, applying traditional substances on the umbilical cord and not delivering at health facilities were associated with a higher risk of neonatal mortality. Policy-makers and resource administrators at different administrative levels could leverage the findings to prioritise and target areas identified with higher neonatal mortality rates.

Geographical accessibility of emergency neonatal care services in Ethiopia: analysis using the 2016 Ethiopian Emergency Obstetric and Neonatal Care Survey.

INTRODUCTION: Access to emergency neonatal health services has not been explored widely in the Ethiopian context. Accessibility to health services is a function of the distribution and location of services, including distance, travel time, cost and convenience. Measuring the physical accessibility of health services contributes to understanding the performance of health systems, thereby enabling evidence-based health planning and policies. The physical accessibility of Ethiopian health services, particularly emergency neonatal care (EmNeC) services, is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To analyse the physical accessibility of EmNeC services at the national and subnational levels in Ethiopia. METHODS: We analysed the physical accessibility of EmNeC services within 30, 60 and 120 min of travel time in Ethiopia at a national and subnational level. We used the 2016 Ethiopian Emergency Obstetric and Neonatal Care survey in addition to several geospatial data sources. RESULTS: We estimated that 21.4%, 35.9% and 46.4% of live births in 2016 were within 30, 60 and 120 min of travel time of fully EmNeC services, but there was considerable variation across regions. Addis Ababa and the Hareri regional state had full access (100% coverage) to EmNeC services within 2 hours travel time, while the Afar (15.3%) and Somali (16.3%) regional states had the lowest access. CONCLUSIONS: The physical access to EmNeC services in Ethiopia is well below the universal health coverage expectations stated by the United Nations. Increasing the availability of EmNeC to health facilities where routine delivery services currently are taking place would significantly increase physical access. Our results reinforce the need to revise service allocations across administrative regions and consider improving disadvantaged areas in future health service planning.

The COVID-19 pandemic and healthcare systems in Africa: a scoping review of preparedness, impact and response.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has overwhelmed health systems in both developed and developing nations alike. Africa has one of the weakest health systems globally, but there is limited evidence on how the region is prepared for, impacted by and responded to the pandemic. METHODS: We conducted a scoping review of PubMed, Scopus, CINAHL to search peer-reviewed articles and Google, Google Scholar and preprint sites for grey literature. The scoping review captured studies on either preparedness or impacts or responses associated with COVID-19 or covering one or more of the three topics and guided by Arksey and O'Malley's methodological framework. The extracted information was documented following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension checklist for scoping reviews. Finally, the resulting data were thematically analysed. RESULTS: Twenty-two eligible studies, of which 6 reported on health system preparedness, 19 described the impacts of COVID-19 on access to general and essential health services and 7 focused on responses taken by the healthcare systems were included. The main setbacks in health system preparation included lack of available health services needed for the pandemic, inadequate resources and equipment, and limited testing ability and surge capacity for COVID-19. Reduced flow of patients and missing scheduled appointments were among the most common impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Health system responses identified in this review included the availability of telephone consultations, re-purposing of available services and establishment of isolation centres, and provisions of COVID-19 guidelines in some settings. CONCLUSIONS: The health systems in Africa were inadequately prepared for the pandemic, and its impact was substantial. Responses were slow and did not match the magnitude of the problem. Interventions that will improve and strengthen health system resilience and financing through local, national and global engagement should be prioritised.

Effect of a self-care educational intervention to improve self-care adherence among patients with chronic heart failure: a clustered randomized controlled trial in Northwest Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: As the burden of cardiovascular disease increases in sub-Saharan Africa, there is a growing need for low-cost interventions to mitigate its impact. Providing self-care health education to patients with chronic heart failure (CHF) is recommended as an intervention to prevent complications, improve quality of life, and reduce financial burdens on fragile health systems. However, little is known about health education's effectiveness at improving CHF self-management adherence in sub-Saharan Africa. Therefore the present study aimed to assess the effectiveness of an educational intervention to improve self-care adherence among patients with CHF at Debre Markos and Felege Hiwot Referral Hospitals in Northwest Ethiopia. METHODS: To address this gap, we adapted a health education intervention based on social cognitive theory comprising of intensive four-day training and, one-day follow-up sessions offered every four months. Patients also received illustrated educational leaflets. We then conducted a clustered randomized control trial of the intervention with 186 randomly-selected patients at Debre Markos and Felege Hiwot referral hospitals. We collected self-reported data on self-care behavior before each educational session. We analyzed these data using a generalized estimating equations model to identify health education's effect on a validated 8-item self-care adherence scale. RESULTS: Self-care adherence scores were balanced at baseline. After the intervention, patients in the intervention group (n = 88) had higher adherence scores than those in the control group (n = 98). This difference was statistically significant (ß = 4.15, p < 0.05) and increased with each round of education. Other factors significantly associated with adherence scores were being single (ß = - 0.25, p < 0.05), taking aspirin (ß = 0.76, p < 0.05), and having a history of hospitalization (ß = 0.91, p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: We find that self-care education significantly improved self-care adherence scores among CHF patients. This suggests that policymakers should consider incorporating self-care education into CHF management. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: PACTR201908812642231.

COVID-19 in Ethiopia: a geospatial analysis of vulnerability to infection, case severity and death.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 has caused a global public health crisis affecting most countries, including Ethiopia, in various ways. This study maps the vulnerability to infection, case severity and likelihood of death from COVID-19 in Ethiopia. METHODS: Thirty-eight potential indicators of vulnerability to COVID-19 infection, case severity and likelihood of death, identified based on a literature review and the availability of nationally representative data at a low geographic scale, were assembled from multiple sources for geospatial analysis. Geospatial analysis techniques were applied to produce maps showing the vulnerability to infection, case severity and likelihood of death in Ethiopia at a spatial resolution of 1 km×1 km. RESULTS: This study showed that vulnerability to COVID-19 infection is likely to be high across most parts of Ethiopia, particularly in the Somali, Afar, Amhara, Oromia and Tigray regions. The number of severe cases of COVID-19 infection requiring hospitalisation and intensive care unit admission is likely to be high across Amhara, most parts of Oromia and some parts of the Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples' Region. The risk of COVID-19-related death is high in the country's border regions, where public health preparedness for responding to COVID-19 is limited. CONCLUSION: This study revealed geographical differences in vulnerability to infection, case severity and likelihood of death from COVID-19 in Ethiopia. The study offers maps that can guide the targeted interventions necessary to contain the spread of COVID-19 in Ethiopia.

Risk factors for COVID-19 infection, disease severity and related deaths in Africa: a systematic review.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to provide a comprehensive evidence on risk factors for transmission, disease severity and COVID-19 related deaths in Africa. DESIGN: A systematic review has been conducted to synthesise existing evidence on risk factors affecting COVID-19 outcomes across Africa. DATA SOURCES: Data were systematically searched from MEDLINE, Scopus, MedRxiv and BioRxiv. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Studies for review were included if they were published in English and reported at least one risk factor and/or one health outcome. We included all relevant literature published up until 11 August 2020. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: We performed a systematic narrative synthesis to describe the available studies for each outcome. Data were extracted using a standardised Joanna Briggs Institute data extraction form. RESULTS: Fifteen articles met the inclusion criteria of which four were exclusively on Africa and the remaining 11 papers had a global focus with some data from Africa. Higher rates of infection in Africa are associated with high population density, urbanisation, transport connectivity, high volume of tourism and international trade, and high level of economic and political openness. Limited or poor access to healthcare are also associated with higher COVID-19 infection rates. Older people and individuals with chronic conditions such as HIV, tuberculosis and anaemia experience severe forms COVID-19 leading to hospitalisation and death. Similarly, high burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, high prevalence of tobacco consumption and low levels of expenditure on health and low levels of global health security score contribute to COVID-19 related deaths. CONCLUSIONS: Demographic, institutional, ecological, health system and politico-economic factors influenced the spectrum of COVID-19 infection, severity and death. We recommend multidisciplinary and integrated approaches to mitigate the identified factors and strengthen effective prevention strategies.

Incidence and Predictors of Mortality among Preterm Neonates Admitted to the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit at Debre Markos Referral Hospital, Northwest Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Prematurity is the most frequent cause of neonatal death and the second leading cause of under-five mortality. Preterm related complications accounts for 35 % of neonatal deaths within the first week after birth. So far, most studies done in Ethiopia have focused on estimating the prevalence and determinant factors of premature neonatal death. The current study aimed to assess the incidence and predictors of mortality among preterm neonates admitted to neonatal intensive care unit at Debre Markos Referral Hospital. METHODS: An institution-based retrospective follow up study was conducted among premature neonates admitted to Neonatal Intensive Care Unit at Debre Markos Referral Hospital from July 2019 to October 2019. Around 498 patients were selected randomly. A multivariable cox proportional hazards model was fitted to identify predictors of mortality. RESULTS: A total of 498 preterm babies were followed, and the mean age for follow up at the time of admission to NICU was 15 hours ± 38 SD. Death rate in preterm was estimated to be 27.11% (95% CI: 23.3%, 31.1%). Preterm neonates with gestational age of less than 32 weeks (AHR=1.51; 95% CI: 1.02, 2.24), respiratory distress syndrome (AHR=1.49; 95% CI: 1.03, 2.17), perinatal asphyxia (AHR=1.74, 95% CI: 1.01, 2.76) and congenital malformation (AHR=3.38, 95% CI: 1.21, 8.77) were statistically significant predictors of mortality among preterms. CONCLUSION: The incidence of death in preterm neonates is relatively low. Gestational age less than 32 weeks, perinatal asphyxia, respiratory distress syndrome and congenital malformation were found as predictors.

Incidence and predictors of surgical site infection following cesarean section in North-west Ethiopia: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Following delivery by caesarean section, surgical site infection is the most common infectious complication. Despite a large number of caesarean sections performed at Debre Markos Referral Hospital, there was no study documenting the incidence of surgical site infection after caesarean section. Therefore, this study aimed to estimate the incidence of surgical site infection following caesarean section at Debre-Markos Referral Hospital in Amhara region, North-west Ethiopia. METHODS: A prospective cohort study was conducted among 520 pregnant women who had a caesarean section between March 28, 2019 and August 31, 2019. Preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative data were collected using a standardized questionnaire. Data was entered using EpiData™ Entry Version 4.1 software and analyzed using R Version 3.6.1 software. A descriptive analysis was conducted using tables, interquartile ranges and median. The time to development of surgical site infection was estimated using Kaplan-Meier method. The Cox regression model for bivariable and multivariable analyses was done. Adjusted Hazard Ratio (AHR) with 95% Confidence Interval (CI) was reported to show the strength of association. RESULT: The mean age of the study cohort was 27.4 ± 4.8 years. The overall cumulative incidence of surgical site infection was 25.4% with an incidence of 11.7 (95% CI:9.8,13.9) per 1000 person/days. Not able to read and write (AHR = 1.30,95% CI:1.19,2.11), no antenatal care (AHR = 2.16, 95%CI:1.05,4.53), previous history of CS (AHR = 1.21, 95% CI:1.11,2.31), HIV positive (AHR = 1.39, 95% CI:1.21,2.57), emergency procedure (AHR = 1.13, 95% CI:1.11,2.43), vertical type of incision (AHR = 2.60, 95% CI:1.05,6.44), rupture of membrane (AHR = 1.50, 95% CI:1.31,1.64), multiple vaginal examination (AHR = 1.88, 95% CI: 1.71, 3.20) were significant predictors of surgical site infection in this study. CONCLUSION: This study concluded that the incidence of surgical site infection following caesarean section was relatively high compared to previous studies. Not able to read and write, have no ante natal care, previous history of caesarean section, HIV, emergency surgery, vertical type of incision, rupture of membranes before caesarean section, and multiple vaginal examinations were significant predictors of surgical site infection in this study. Therefore, intervention programs should focus on and address the identified factors to minimize and prevent the infection rate after caesarean section.

Prevalence and predictors of uterine rupture among Ethiopian women: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Uterine rupture has a significant public health importance, contributing to 13% of maternal mortality and 74%-92% of perinatal mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa, and 36% of maternal mortality in Ethiopia. The prevalence and predictors of uterine rupture were highly variable and inconclusive across studies in the country. Therefore, this systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to estimate the pooled prevalence and predictor of uterine rupture in Ethiopia. METHODS: This systematic review and meta-analysis followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses 2009 checklist. PubMed, Cochrane Library, Google Scholar, and African Journals Online databases were searched. The Newcastle- Ottawa quality assessment tool was used for critical appraisal. I2 statistic and Egger's tests were used to assess the heterogeneity and publication bias, respectively. The random-effects model was used to estimate the pooled prevalence and odds ratios with a 95% confidence interval. RESULTS: Sixteen studies were included, with a total of 91,784 women in the meta-analysis. The pooled prevalence of uterine rupture was 2% (95% CI: 1.99, 3.01). The highest prevalence was observed in the Amhara regional state (5%) and the lowest was in Tigray region (1%). Previous cesarean delivery (OR = 9.95, 95% CI: 3.09, 32.0), lack of antenatal care visit (OR = 8.40, 95% CI: 4.5, 15.7), rural residence (OR = 4.75, 95% CI: 1.17, 19.3), grand multiparity (OR = 4.49, 95% CI: 2.83, 7.11) and obstructed labor (OR = 6.75, 95%CI: 1.92, 23.8) were predictors of uterine rupture. CONCLUSION: Uterine rupture is still high in Ethiopia. Therefore, proper auditing on the appropriateness of cesarean section and proper labor monitoring, improving antenatal care visit, and birth preparedness and complication readiness plan are needed. Moreover, early referral and family planning utilization are the recommended interventions to reduce the burden of uterine rupture among Ethiopia women.

Incidence and predictors of loss to follow-up among HIV-positive adults in northwest Ethiopia: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Despite the rapid expansion of antiretroviral therapy services, 'loss to follow-up' is a significant public health concern globally. Loss to follow-up of individuals from ART has a countless negative impact on the treatment outcomes. There is, however, limited information about the incidence and predictors of loss to follow-up in our study area. Thus, this study aimed to determine the incidence rate and predictors of loss to follow-up among adult HIV patients on ART. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was undertaken using 484 HIV patients between January 30, 2008, and January 26, 2018, at Debre Markos Referral Hospital. All eligible HIV patients who fulfilled the inclusion criteria were included in this study. Data were entered into Epi-data Version 4.2 and analyzed using STATATM Version 14.0 software. The Nelson-Aalen cumulative hazard estimator was used to estimate the hazard rate of loss to follow-up, and the log-rank test was used to compare the survival curve between different categorical variables. Both bivariable and multivariable Cox-proportional hazard regression models were fitted to identify predictors of LTFU. RESULTS: Among a cohort of 484 HIV patients at Debre Markos Referral Hospital, 84 (17.36%) were loss their ART follow-up. The overall incidence rate of loss to follow-up was 3.7 (95% CI 3.0, 5.0) per 100 adult-years. The total LTFU free time of the participants was 2294.8 person-years. In multivariable Cox-regression analysis, WHO stage IV (AHR 2.8; 95% CI 1.2, 6.2), having no cell phone (AHR 1.9; 95% CI 1.1, 3.4), and rural residence (AHR 0.6; 95% CI 0.37, 0.99) were significant predictors of loss to follow-up. CONCLUSION: The incidence of loss to ART follow-up in this study was low. Having no cell phone and WHO clinical stage IV were causative predictors, and rural residence was the only protective factor of loss to follow-up. Therefore, available intervention modalities should be strengthened to mitigate loss to follow-up by addressing the identified risk factors.