LLIN Evaluation in Uganda Project (LLINEUP): modelling the impact of COVID-19-related disruptions on delivery of long-lasting insecticidal nets on malaria indicators in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Disruptions in malaria control due to COVID-19 mitigation measures were predicted to increase malaria morbidity and mortality in Africa substantially. In Uganda, long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) are distributed nationwide every 3-4 years, but the 2020-2021 campaign was altered because of COVID-19 restrictions so that the timing of delivery of new nets was different from the original plans made by the National Malaria Control Programme. METHODS: A transmission dynamics modelling exercise was conducted to explore how the altered delivery of LLINs in 2020-2021 impacted malaria burden in Uganda. Data were available on the planned LLIN distribution schedule for 2020-2021, and the actual delivery. The transmission model was used to simulate 100 health sub-districts, and parameterized to match understanding of local mosquito bionomics, net use estimates, and seasonal patterns based on data collected in 2017-2019 during a cluster-randomized trial (LLINEUP). Two scenarios were compared; simulated LLIN distributions matching the actual delivery schedule, and a comparable scenario simulating LLIN distributions as originally planned. Model parameters were otherwise matched between simulations. RESULTS: Approximately 70% of the study population received LLINs later than scheduled in 2020-2021, although some areas received LLINs earlier than planned. The model indicates that malaria incidence in 2020 was substantially higher in areas that received LLINs late. In some areas, early distribution of LLINs appeared less effective than the original distribution schedule, possibly due to attrition of LLINs prior to transmission peaks, and waning LLIN efficacy after distribution. On average, the model simulations predicted broadly similar overall mean malaria incidence in 2021 and 2022. After accounting for differences in cluster population size and LLIN distribution dates, no substantial increase in malaria burden was detected. CONCLUSIONS: The model results suggest that the disruptions in the 2020-2021 LLIN distribution campaign in Uganda did not substantially increase malaria burden in the study areas.

Effect of long-lasting insecticidal nets with and without piperonyl butoxide on malaria indicators in Uganda (LLINEUP): final results of a cluster-randomised trial embedded in a national distribution campaign.

BACKGROUND: Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) are the foundation of malaria control but resistance of mosquito vectors to pyrethroids threatens their effectiveness. We embedded a cluster-randomised trial into Uganda's 2017-18 campaign to distribute LLINs. LLINs with piperonyl butoxide (PBO) reduced parasite prevalence more effectively than conventional LLINs (without PBO) for 18 months. Here, we report the final 25-month survey results. METHODS: LLINEUP was a cluster-randomised trial conducted in 48 districts in eastern and western Uganda. 104 health subdistricts (clusters) without ongoing or planned indoor residual spraying with pirimiphos-methyl (Actellic, Basel, Switzerland) were eligible for inclusion in the trial. Clusters were randomly assigned to PBO LLINs (PermaNet 3.0 or Olyset Plus) and conventional LLINs (PermaNet 2.0 or Olyset Net) with proportionate randomisation using STATA version 14.2. LLINs were delivered from March 25, 2017, to March 18, 2018. Between April 23, 2019, and Sept 13, 2019, community surveys were conducted in 50 randomly selected households per cluster; ten households per cluster were randomly selected for entomology surveys. Mosquitoes were collected in the morning from indoor surfaces of households using Prokopack aspirators. Due to COVID-19 restrictions, only 90 of the 104 clusters were surveyed at 25 months. The primary outcome was parasite prevalence by microscopy in children aged 2-10 years, assessed in the as-treated population, determined using the results from the 6-month household survey on the type of LLINs received in each cluster. This trial is registered with ISRCTN, ISRCTN17516395, and is now completed. FINDINGS: In the as-treated analysis, two clusters were excluded (no predominant LLIN received) and four were reassigned; 40 PBO LLIN clusters (30 PermaNet 3.0, ten Olyset Plus) and 48 non-PBO LLIN (36 PermaNet 2.0, 12 Olyset Net) were included. Parasite prevalence was 17·1% (506 of 2958 participants) in the PBO group and 19·8% (701 of 3534) in the non-PBO group (prevalence ratio adjusted for baseline 0·80 [95% CI 0·69-0·93], p=0·0048). Comparing within-treatment group parasite prevalence to baseline, parasite prevalence ratios were lower in the PBO groups at all timepoints, but the difference was greatest at 6 months (PBO LLINs parasite prevalence at baseline 28·8% [1001 of 3472, 95% CI 27·3-30·4] vs at 6 months 12·0% [361 of 3009, 10·9-13·2], prevalence ratio [PR] 0·43 [95% CI 0·36-0·52], p<0·0001; non-PBO LLINs parasite prevalence at baseline 25·4% [1015 of 4004, 24·0-26·7] vs 6 months 14·8% [526 of 3551, 13·7-16·0], PR 0·60 [0·54-0·68], p<0·0001) and 25 months (PBO LLINs parasite prevalence at 25 months 17·1% [506 of 2958, 15·8-18·5], PR 0·63 [95% CI 0·57-0·71], p<0·0001; non-PBO LLINs parasite prevalence at 25 months 19·8% [701 of 3534, 18·5-21·2], PR 0·79 [0·73-0·86], p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION: In Uganda, PBO LLINs outperformed pyrethroid-only LLINs for 25 months. WHO concluded that PBO LLINs are more effective against malaria than non-PBO LLINs when resistance to pyrethroids is high and issued a conditional recommendation suggesting PBO LLINs should be deployed in areas of pyrethroid resistance. FUNDING: The Against Malaria Foundation, UK Department for International Development, Innovative Vector Control Consortium, and Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

LLIN evaluation in Uganda project (LLINEUP): The fabric integrity, chemical content and bioefficacy of long-lasting insecticidal nets treated with and without piperonyl butoxide across two years of operational use in Uganda.

Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) supplemented with the synergist piperonyl butoxide have been developed in response to growing pyrethroid resistance; however, their durability in the field remains poorly described. A pragmatic cluster-randomised trial was embedded into Uganda's 2017-2018 LLIN distribution to compare the durability of LLINs with and without PBO. A total of 104 clusters (health sub-districts) were included with each receiving one of four LLIN products, two with pyrethroid + PBO (Olyset Plus and PermaNet 3.0) and two pyrethroid-only (Olyset Net and PermaNet 2.0). Nets were sampled at baseline, 12 and 25 months post-distribution to assess physical condition, chemical content, and bioefficacy. Physical condition was quantified using proportionate Hole Index and chemical content measured using high-performance liquid chromatography. Bioefficacy was assessed with three-minute World Health Organisation (WHO) Cone and Wireball assays using pyrethroid-resistant Anopheles gambiae, with 1-h knockdown and 24-h mortality recorded. There was no difference in physical durability between LLIN products assessed (P = 0.644). The pyrethroid content of all products remained relatively stable across time-points but PBO content declined by 55% (P < 0.001) and 58% (P < 0.001) for Olyset Plus and PermaNet 3.0 respectively. Both PBO LLINs were highly effective against pyrethroid-resistant mosquitoes when new, knocking down all mosquitoes. However, bioefficacy declined over time with Olyset Plus knocking down 45.72% (95% CI: 22.84-68.62%, P = 0.021) and Permanent 3.0 knocking down 78.57% (95% CI: 63.57-93.58%, P < 0.001) after 25 months. Here we demonstrate that both Olyset Plus and PermaNet 3.0 are as durable as their pyrethroid-only equivalents and had superior bioefficacy against pyrethroid-resistant An. gambiae. However, the superiority of PBO-LLINs decreased with operational use, correlating with a reduction in total PBO content. This decline in bioefficacy after just two years is concerning and there is an urgent need to assess the durability of PBO LLINs in other settings.

Improved hypertension control at six months using an adapted WHO HEARTS-based implementation strategy at a large urban HIV clinic in Uganda.

OBJECTIVES: To adapt a World Health Organization HEARTS-based implementation strategy for hypertension (HTN) control at a large urban HIV clinic in Uganda and determine six-month HTN and HIV outcomes among a cohort of adult persons living with HIV (PLHIV). METHODS: Our implementation strategy included six elements: health education, medication adherence, and lifestyle counseling; routine HTN screening; task shifting of HTN treatment; evidence-based HTN treatment protocol; consistent supply of HTN medicines free to patients; and inclusion of HTN-specific monitoring and evaluation tools. We conducted a pre-post study from October 2019 to March 2020 to determine the effect of this strategy on HTN and HIV outcomes at baseline and six months. Our cohort comprised adult PLHIV diagnosed with HTN who made at least one clinic visit within two months prior to study onset. FINDINGS: We enrolled 1,015 hypertensive PLHIV. The mean age was 50.1 ± 9.5 years and 62.6% were female. HTN outcomes improved between baseline and six months: mean systolic BP (154.3 ± 20.0 to 132.3 ± 13.8 mmHg, p < 0.001); mean diastolic BP (97.7 ± 13.1 to 85.3 ± 9.5 mmHg, p < 0.001) and proportion of patients with controlled HTN (9.3% to 74.1%, p < 0.001). The HTN care cascade also improved: treatment initiation (13.4% to 100%), retention in care (16.2% to 98.5%), monitoring (16.2% to 98.5%), and BP control among those initiated on HTN treatment (2.2% to 75.2%). HIV cascade steps remained high (> 95% at baseline and six months) and viral suppression was unchanged (98.7% to 99.2%, p = 0.712). Taking ART for more than two years and HIV viral suppression were independent predictors of HTN control at six months. CONCLUSIONS: A HEARTS-based implementation strategy at a large, urban HIV center facilitates integration of HTN and HIV care and improves HTN outcomes while sustaining HIV control. Further implementation research is needed to study HTN/HIV integration in varied clinical settings among diverse populations.

Hypertension care cascade at a large urban HIV clinic in Uganda: a mixed methods study using the Capability, Opportunity, Motivation for Behavior change (COM-B) model.

BACKGROUND: Persons living with HIV (PLHIV) receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) have a high prevalence of hypertension (HTN) and increased risk of mortality from cardiovascular diseases. HTN and HIV care integration is recommended in Uganda, though its implementation has lagged. In this study, we sought to analyze the HTN and HIV care cascades and explore barriers and facilitators of HTN/HIV integration within a large HIV clinic in urban Uganda. METHODS: We conducted an explanatory sequential mixed methods study at Mulago ISS clinic in Kampala, Uganda. We determined proportions of patients in HTN and HIV care cascade steps of screened, diagnosed, initiated on treatment, retained, and controlled. Guided by the Capability, Opportunity, Motivation and Behavior (COM-B) model, we then conducted semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions with healthcare providers (n = 13) and hypertensive PLHIV (n = 32). We coded the qualitative data deductively and analyzed the data thematically categorizing them as themes that influenced HTN care positively or negatively. These denoted barriers and facilitators, respectively. RESULTS: Of 15,953 adult PLHIV, 99.1% were initiated on ART, 89.5% were retained in care, and 98.0% achieved control (viral suppression) at 1 year. All 15,953 (100%) participants were screened for HTN, of whom 24.3% had HTN. HTN treatment initiation, 1-year retention, and control were low at 1.0%, 15.4%, and 5.0%, respectively. Barriers and facilitators of HTN/HIV integration appeared in all three COM-B domains. Barriers included low patient knowledge of HTN complications, less priority by patients for HTN treatment compared to ART, sub-optimal provider knowledge of HTN treatment, lack of HTN treatment protocols, inadequate supply of anti-hypertensive medicines, and lack of HTN care performance targets. Facilitators included patients' and providers' interest in HTN/HIV integration, patients' interest in PLHIV peer support, providers' knowledge and skills for HTN screening, optimal ART adherence counseling, and availability of automated BP machines. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of HTN among PLHIV is high, but the HTN care cascade is sub-optimal in this successful HIV clinic. To close these gaps, models of integrated HTN/HIV care are urgently needed. These findings provide a basis for designing contextually appropriate interventions for HTN/HIV integration in Uganda and other low- and middle-income countries.

Effectiveness of in-service training plus the collaborative improvement strategy on the quality of routine malaria surveillance data: results of a pilot study in Kayunga District, Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Surveillance data are essential for malaria control, but quality is often poor. The aim of the study was to evaluate the effectiveness of the novel combination of training plus an innovative quality improvement method-collaborative improvement (CI)-on the quality of malaria surveillance data in Uganda. METHODS: The intervention (training plus CI, or TCI), including brief in-service training and CI, was delivered in 5 health facilities (HFs) in Kayunga District from November 2015 to August 2016. HF teams monitored data quality, conducted plan-do-study-act cycles to test changes, attended periodic learning sessions, and received CI coaching. An independent evaluation was conducted to assess data completeness, accuracy, and timeliness. Using an interrupted time series design without a separate control group, data were abstracted from 156,707 outpatient department (OPD) records, laboratory registers, and aggregated monthly reports (MR) for 4 time periods: baseline-12 months, TCI scale-up-5 months; CI implementation-9 months; post-intervention-4 months. Monthly OPD register completeness was measured as the proportion of patient records with a malaria diagnosis with: (1) all data fields completed, and (2) all clinically-relevant fields completed. Accuracy was the relative difference between: (1) number of monthly malaria patients reported in OPD register versus MR, and (2) proportion of positive malaria tests reported in the laboratory register versus MR. Data were analysed with segmented linear regression modelling. RESULTS: Data completeness increased substantially following TCI. Compared to baseline, all-field completeness increased by 60.1%-points (95% confidence interval [CI]: 46.9-73.2%) at mid-point, and clinically-relevant completeness increased by 61.6%-points (95% CI: 56.6-66.7%). A relative - 57.4%-point (95% confidence interval: - 105.5, - 9.3%) change, indicating an improvement in accuracy of malaria test positivity reporting, but no effect on data accuracy for monthly malaria patients, were observed. Cost per additional malaria patient, for whom complete clinically-relevant data were recorded in the OPD register, was $3.53 (95% confidence interval: $3.03, $4.15). CONCLUSIONS: TCI improved malaria surveillance completeness considerably, with limited impact on accuracy. Although these results are promising, the intervention's effectiveness should be evaluated in more HFs, with longer follow-up, ideally in a randomized trial, before recommending CI for wide-scale use.

Impact of seasonality and malaria control interventions on Anopheles density and species composition from three areas of Uganda with differing malaria endemicity.

BACKGROUND: Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS) are the malaria control interventions primarily responsible for reductions in transmission intensity across sub-Saharan Africa. These interventions, however, may have differential impact on Anopheles species composition and density. This study examined the changing pattern of Anopheles species in three areas of Uganda with markedly different transmission intensities and different levels of vector control. METHODS: From October 2011 to June 2016 mosquitoes were collected monthly using CDC light traps from 100 randomly selected households in three areas: Walukuba (low transmission), Kihihi (moderate transmission) and Nagongera (high transmission). LLINs were distributed in November 2013 in Walukuba and Nagongera and in June 2014 in Kihihi. IRS was implemented only in Nagongera, with three rounds of bendiocarb delivered between December 2014 and June 2015. Mosquito species were identified morphologically and by PCR (Polymerase Chain Reaction). RESULTS: In Walukuba, LLIN distribution was associated with a decline in Anopheles funestus vector density (0.07 vs 0.02 mosquitoes per house per night, density ratio [DR] 0.34, 95% CI: 0.18-0.65, p = 0.001), but not Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto (s.s.) nor Anopheles arabiensis. In Kihihi, over 98% of mosquitoes were An. gambiae s.s. and LLIN distribution was associated with a decline in An. gambiae s.s. vector density (4.00 vs 2.46, DR 0.68, 95% CI: 0.49-0.94, p = 0.02). In Nagongera, the combination of LLINs and multiple rounds of IRS was associated with almost complete elimination of An. gambiae s.s. (28.0 vs 0.17, DR 0.004, 95% CI: 0.002-0.009, p < 0.001), and An. funestus sensu lato (s.l.) (3.90 vs 0.006, DR 0.001, 95% CI: 0.0005-0.004, p < 0.001), with a less pronounced decline in An. arabiensis (9.18 vs 2.00, DR 0.15 95% CI: 0.07-0.33, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: LLIN distribution was associated with reductions in An. funestus s.l. in the lowest transmission site and An. gambiae s.s. in the moderate transmission site. In the highest transmission site, a combination of LLINs and multiple rounds of IRS was associated with the near collapse of An. gambiae s.s. and An. funestus s.l. Following IRS, An. arabiensis, a behaviourally resilient vector, became the predominant species, which may have implications for malaria vector control activities. Development of interventions targeted at outdoor biting remains a priority.

Relationships between test positivity rate, total laboratory confirmed cases of malaria, and malaria incidence in high burden settings of Uganda: an ecological analysis.

BACKGROUND: Malaria surveillance is critical for monitoring changes in malaria morbidity over time. National Malaria Control Programmes often rely on surrogate measures of malaria incidence, including the test positivity rate (TPR) and total laboratory confirmed cases of malaria (TCM), to monitor trends in malaria morbidity. However, there are limited data on the accuracy of TPR and TCM for predicting temporal changes in malaria incidence, especially in high burden settings. METHODS: This study leveraged data from 5 malaria reference centres (MRCs) located in high burden settings over a 15-month period from November 2018 through January 2020 as part of an enhanced health facility-based surveillance system established in Uganda. Individual level data were collected from all outpatients including demographics, laboratory test results, and village of residence. Estimates of malaria incidence were derived from catchment areas around the MRCs. Temporal relationships between monthly aggregate measures of TPR and TCM relative to estimates of malaria incidence were examined using linear and exponential regression models. RESULTS: A total of 149,739 outpatient visits to the 5 MRCs were recorded. Overall, malaria was suspected in 73.4% of visits, 99.1% of patients with suspected malaria received a diagnostic test, and 69.7% of those tested for malaria were positive. Temporal correlations between monthly measures of TPR and malaria incidence using linear and exponential regression models were relatively poor, with small changes in TPR frequently associated with large changes in malaria incidence. Linear regression models of temporal changes in TCM provided the most parsimonious and accurate predictor of changes in malaria incidence, with adjusted R2 values ranging from 0.81 to 0.98 across the 5 MRCs. However, the slope of the regression lines indicating the change in malaria incidence per unit change in TCM varied from 0.57 to 2.13 across the 5 MRCs, and when combining data across all 5 sites, the R2 value reduced to 0.38. CONCLUSIONS: In high malaria burden areas of Uganda, site-specific temporal changes in TCM had a strong linear relationship with malaria incidence and were a more useful metric than TPR. However, caution should be taken when comparing changes in TCM across sites.

Spatial-temporal patterns of malaria incidence in Uganda using HMIS data from 2015 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: As global progress to reduce malaria transmission continues, it is increasingly important to track changes in malaria incidence rather than prevalence. Risk estimates for Africa have largely underutilized available health management information systems (HMIS) data to monitor trends. This study uses national HMIS data, together with environmental and geographical data, to assess spatial-temporal patterns of malaria incidence at facility catchment level in Uganda, over a recent 5-year period. METHODS: Data reported by 3446 health facilities in Uganda, between July 2015 and September 2019, was analysed. To assess the geographic accessibility of the health facilities network, AccessMod was employed to determine a three-hour cost-distance catchment around each facility. Using confirmed malaria cases and total catchment population by facility, an ecological Bayesian conditional autoregressive spatial-temporal Poisson model was fitted to generate monthly posterior incidence rate estimates, adjusted for caregiver education, rainfall, land surface temperature, night-time light (an indicator of urbanicity), and vegetation index. RESULTS: An estimated 38.8 million (95% Credible Interval [CI]: 37.9-40.9) confirmed cases of malaria occurred over the period, with a national mean monthly incidence rate of 20.4 (95% CI: 19.9-21.5) cases per 1000, ranging from 8.9 (95% CI: 8.7-9.4) to 36.6 (95% CI: 35.7-38.5) across the study period. Strong seasonality was observed, with June-July experiencing highest peaks and February-March the lowest peaks. There was also considerable geographic heterogeneity in incidence, with health facility catchment relative risk during peak transmission months ranging from 0 to 50.5 (95% CI: 49.0-50.8) times higher than national average. Both districts and health facility catchments showed significant positive spatial autocorrelation; health facility catchments had global Moran's I = 0.3 (p < 0.001) and districts Moran's I = 0.4 (p < 0.001). Notably, significant clusters of high-risk health facility catchments were concentrated in Acholi, West Nile, Karamoja, and East Central - Busoga regions. CONCLUSION: Findings showed clear countrywide spatial-temporal patterns with clustering of malaria risk across districts and health facility catchments within high risk regions, which can facilitate targeting of interventions to those areas at highest risk. Moreover, despite high and perennial transmission, seasonality for malaria incidence highlights the potential for optimal and timely implementation of targeted interventions.

Practical Implications of a Relationship between Health Management Information System and Community Cohort-Based Malaria Incidence Rates.

Global malaria burden is reducing with effective control interventions, and surveillance is vital to maintain progress. Health management information system (HMIS) data provide a powerful surveillance tool; however, its estimates of burden need to be better understood for effectiveness. We aimed to investigate the relationship between HMIS and cohort incidence rates and identify sources of bias in HMIS-based incidence. Malaria incidence was estimated using HMIS data from 15 health facilities in three subcounties in Uganda. This was compared with a gold standard of representative cohort studies conducted in children aged 0.5 to < 11 years, followed concurrently in these sites. Between October 2011 and September 2014, 153,079 children were captured through HMISs and 995 followed up through enhanced community cohorts in Walukuba, Kihihi, and Nagongera subcounties. Although HMISs substantially underestimated malaria incidence in all sites compared with data from the cohort studies, there was a strong linear relationship between these rates in the lower transmission settings (Walukuba and Kihihi), but not the lowest HMIS performance highest transmission site (Nagongera), with calendar year as a significant modifier. Although health facility accessibility, availability, and recording completeness were associated with HMIS incidence, they were not significantly associated with bias in estimates from any site. Health management information systems still require improvements; however, their strong predictive power of unbiased malaria burden when improved highlights the important role they could play as a cost-effective tool for monitoring trends and estimating impact of control interventions. This has important implications for malaria control in low-resource, high-burden countries.

Effect of long-lasting insecticidal nets with and without piperonyl butoxide on malaria indicators in Uganda (LLINEUP): a pragmatic, cluster-randomised trial embedded in a national LLIN distribution campaign.

BACKGROUND: Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) are the primary malaria prevention tool, but their effectiveness is threatened by pyrethroid resistance. We embedded a pragmatic cluster-randomised trial into Uganda's national LLIN campaign to compare conventional LLINs with those containing piperonyl butoxide (PBO), a synergist that can partially restore pyrethroid susceptibility in mosquito vectors. METHODS: 104 health sub-districts, from 48 districts in Uganda, were randomly assigned to LLINs with PBO (PermaNet 3.0 and Olyset Plus) and conventional LLINs (PermaNet 2.0 and Olyset Net) by proportionate randomisation using an iterative process. At baseline 6, 12, and 18 months after LLIN distribution, cross-sectional surveys were done in 50 randomly selected households per cluster (5200 per survey); a subset of ten households per cluster (1040 per survey) were randomly selected for entomological surveys. The primary outcome was parasite prevalence by microscopy in children aged 2-10 years, assessed in the as-treated population at 6, 12, and 18 months. This trial is registered with ISRCTN, ISRCTN17516395. FINDINGS: LLINs were delivered to households from March 25, 2017, to March 18, 2018, 32 clusters were randomly assigned to PermaNet 3.0, 20 to Olyset Plus, 37 to PermaNet 2.0, and 15 to Olyset Net. In the as-treated analysis, three clusters were excluded because no dominant LLIN was received, and four clusters were reassigned, resulting in 49 PBO LLIN clusters (31 received PermaNet 3.0 and 18 received Olyset Plus) and 52 non-PBO LLIN clusters (39 received PermaNet 2.0 and 13 received Olyset Net). At 6 months, parasite prevalence was 11% (386/3614) in the PBO group compared with 15% (556/3844) in the non-PBO group (prevalence ratio [PR] adjusted for baseline values 0·74, 95% CI 0·62-0·87; p=0·0003). Parasite prevalence was similar at month 12 (11% vs 13%; PR 0·73, 95% CI 0·63-0·85; p=0·0001) and month 18 (12% vs 14%; PR 0·84, 95% CI 0·72-0·98; p=0·029). INTERPRETATION: In Uganda, where pyrethroid resistance is high, PBO LLINs reduced parasite prevalence more effectively than did conventional LLINs for up to 18 months. This study provides evidence needed to support WHO's final recommendation on use of PBO LLINs. FUNDING: The Against Malaria Foundation, UK Department for International Development, Innovative Vector Control Consortium, and Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Rapid shifts in the age-specific burden of malaria following successful control interventions in four regions of Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Malaria control using long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying of insecticide (IRS) has been associated with reduced transmission throughout Africa. However, the impact of transmission reduction on the age distribution of malaria cases remains unclear. METHODS: Over a 10-year period (January 2009 to July 2018), outpatient surveillance data from four health facilities in Uganda were used to estimate the impact of control interventions on temporal changes in the age distribution of malaria cases using multinomial regression. Interventions included mass distribution of LLINs at all sites and IRS at two sites. RESULTS: Overall, 896,550 patient visits were included in the study; 211,632 aged < 5 years, 171,166 aged 5-15 years and 513,752 > 15 years. Over time, the age distribution of patients not suspected of malaria and those malaria negative either declined or remained the same across all sites. In contrast, the age distribution of suspected and confirmed malaria cases increased across all four sites. In the two LLINs-only sites, the proportion of malaria cases in < 5 years decreased from 31 to 16% and 35 to 25%, respectively. In the two sites receiving LLINs plus IRS, these proportions decreased from 58 to 30% and 64 to 47%, respectively. Similarly, in the LLINs-only sites, the proportion of malaria cases > 15 years increased from 40 to 61% and 29 to 39%, respectively. In the sites receiving LLINs plus IRS, these proportions increased from 19 to 44% and 18 to 31%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: These findings demonstrate a shift in the burden of malaria from younger to older individuals following implementation of successful control interventions, which has important implications for malaria prevention, surveillance, case management and control strategies.

Intermittent preventive treatment of malaria delivered to primary schoolchildren provided effective individual protection in Jinja, Uganda: secondary outcomes of a cluster-randomized trial (START-IPT).

BACKGROUND: Intermittent preventive treatment (IPT) of malaria is recommended as policy for certain high-risk populations, but not currently for schoolchildren. A cluster-randomized trial was conducted to evaluate the effect of IPT with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) on primary schoolchildren in Jinja, Uganda. Results of the impact of IPT of schoolchildren on community-level transmission have been reported previously. Here, secondary outcomes from a school-based survey are presented. METHODS: Eighty-four clusters (one primary school plus 100 households) were randomized to intervention and control (1:1 ratio). Participants from intervention schools received monthly IPT with DP for up to 6 rounds (June-December 2014). At endline (November-December 2014), randomly selected children from all 84 schools were surveyed (13 per school) and thick blood smears were done. Those with fever or history of fever were tested with rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) for malaria. Haemoglobin was measured in every fifth participant. Outcome measures included prevalence of asexual parasites and gametocytes (by microscopy), and prevalence of anaemia. Prevalence outcomes were analysed using generalized linear Poisson models with log link function, incorporating a cluster-level random intercept and quantified using prevalence risk ratios. RESULTS: Among 23,280 students listed on the 42 intervention school registers, 10,079 (43.3%) aged 5-20 years were enrolled into the IPT intervention and received at least one dose of DP; of these, 9286 (92.1%) received at least one full (3-day) course. In total, 1092 children were enrolled into the final school survey (546 per arm) and had a thick blood smear done; of these, 255 had haemoglobin measured (129 intervention, 126 control). Children in the intervention arm were less likely to have asexual parasites (9.2% intervention vs 44.1% control, adjusted risk ratio [aRR] 0.22 [95% CI 0.16-0.30] p < 0.001), gametocytes (3.1% intervention vs 9.5% control, aRR 0.34 [95% CI 0.20-0.56] p < 0.001), fever (20.2% intervention vs 56.2% control, aRR 0.35 [95% CI 0.25-0.50] p < 0.001), or symptomatic malaria (5.1% intervention vs 35.7% control, aRR 0.14 [95% CI 0.08-0.26] p < 0.001). Prevalence of anaemia and mean haemoglobin were similar in both study arms. CONCLUSIONS: School-aged children are a major reservoir of malaria parasites. Delivering IPT to schoolchildren would benefit individual children and may reduce transmission. School-based IPT could help to intensify malaria control toward elimination, and should be considered for policies and programmes. Trial registration Clinicaltrials.gov (NCT02009215), Registered 11 December 2013. https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02009215.

Malaria Burden through Routine Reporting: Relationship between Incidence and Test Positivity Rates.

Test positivity rate (TPR)-confirmed cases per 100 suspected cases tested, and test-confirmed malaria case rate (IR)-cases per 1,000 population, are common indicators used routinely for malaria surveillance. However, few studies have explored relationships between these indicators over time and space. We studied the relationship between these indicators in children aged < 11 years presenting with suspected malaria to the outpatient departments of level IV health centers in Nagongera, Kihihi, and Walukuba in Uganda from October 2011 to June 2016. We evaluated trends in indicators over time and space, and explored associations using multivariable regression models. Overall, 65,710 participants visited the three clinics. Pairwise comparisons of TPR and IR by month showed similar trends, particularly for TPRs < 50% and during low-transmission seasons, but by village, the relationship was complex. Village mean annual TPRs remained constant, whereas IRs drastically declined with increasing distance from the health center. Villages that were furthest away from the health centers (fourth quartile for distance) had significantly lower IRs than nearby villages (first quartile), with an incidence rate ratio of 0.40 in Nagongera (95% CI: 0.23-0.63; P = 0.001), 0.55 in Kihihi (0.40-0.75; P < 0.001), and 0.25 in Walukuba (0.12-0.51; P < 0.001). Regression analysis results emphasized a nonlinear (cubic) relationship between TPR and IR, after accounting for month, village, season, and demographic factors. Results show that the two indicators are highly relevant for monitoring malaria burden. However, interpretation differs with TPR primarily indicating demand for malaria treatment resources and IR indicating malaria risk among health facility catchment populations.

Association Between Recent Overnight Travel and Risk of Malaria: A Prospective Cohort Study at 3 Sites in Uganda.

Background: Human movement can undermine malaria control efforts. However, understanding of the association between travel and malaria infection in Africa is limited. We evaluated the association between recent overnight travel and malaria incidence in Uganda. Methods: All children aged 0.5-10 years and 1 adult living in 266 randomly selected households within 3 different regions of Uganda were followed up prospectively. Information on overnight travel was collected in 2015-2016. Malaria, defined as fever with parasites detected by microscopy, was measured using passive surveillance. Results: At least 1 overnight trip was reported by 64 of 275 (23.3%) participants in Walukuba, 37 of 317 (11.7%) in Nagongera, and 19 of 314 (6.1%) in Kihihi. Among individuals who traveled, the incidence of malaria was higher in the first 60 days after traveling, compared with periods without recent travel at all 3 sites (overall, 1.15 vs 0.33 episodes per person-year; incidence rate ratio, 3.53; 95% confidence interval, 1.85-6.73; P < .001). Risk factors for malaria within 60 days after overnight travel included young age (19.5% in children vs 4.9% in adults; odds ratio, 5.29; 95% confidence interval, 1.34-21.0; P = .02) and not using an insecticide-treated net during travel (18.0% for no use vs 4.1% for any use; 5.10; 1.07-24.5; P = .04). Conclusions: Recent overnight travel was associated with a higher incidence of malaria. Individuals who travel may represent a high-risk group that could be targeted for malaria control interventions, particularly use of insecticide-treated nets.

Changing Molecular Markers of Antimalarial Drug Sensitivity across Uganda.

The potential spread of antimalarial drug resistance to Africa, in particular for artemisinins and key partner drugs, is a major concern. We surveyed Plasmodium falciparum genetic markers associated with drug sensitivity on 3 occasions at ∼6-month intervals in 2016 and 2017 at 10 sites representing a range of epidemiological settings in Uganda. For putative drug transporters, we found continued evolution toward wild-type sequences associated with increased sensitivity to chloroquine. For pfcrt K76T, by 2017 the prevalence of the wild type was >60% at all sites and >90% at 6 sites. For the pfmdr1 N86Y and D1246Y alleles, wild type prevalence ranged from 80 to 100%. We found low prevalence of K13 propeller domain mutations, which are associated with artemisinin resistance in Asia, but one mutation previously identified in northern Uganda, 675V, was seen in 2.0% of samples, including 5.5% of those from the 3 northernmost sites. Amplification of the pfmdr1 and plasmepsin2 genes, associated elsewhere with decreased sensitivity to lumefantrine and piperaquine, respectively, was seen in <1% of samples. For the antifolate targets pfdhfr and pfdhps, 5 mutations previously associated with resistance were very common, and the pfdhfr 164L and pfdhps 581G mutations associated with higher-level resistance were seen at multiple sites, although prevalence did not clearly increase over time. Overall, changes were consistent with the selective pressure of the national treatment regimen, artemether-lumefantrine, with increased sensitivity to chloroquine, and with poor efficacy of antifolates. Strong evidence for resistance to artemisinins was not seen. Continued surveillance of markers that predict antimalarial drug sensitivity is warranted.

Assessment of community-level effects of intermittent preventive treatment for malaria in schoolchildren in Jinja, Uganda (START-IPT trial): a cluster-randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Intermittent preventive treatment (IPT) is a well established malaria control intervention. Evidence that delivering IPT to schoolchildren could provide community-level benefits is limited. We did a cluster-randomised controlled trial to assess the effect of IPT of primary schoolchildren with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) on indicators of malaria transmission in the community, in Jinja, Uganda. METHODS: We included 84 clusters, each comprising one primary school and the 100 closest available households. The clusters were randomly assigned 1:1 to receive IPT with DP or standard care (control) by restricted randomisation to ensure balance by geography and school type. Children in intervention schools received IPT monthly for up to six rounds (June to December, 2014). We did cross-sectional community surveys in randomly selected households at baseline and in January to April, 2015, during which we measured participants' temperatures and obtained finger-prick blood smears for measurement of parasite prevalence by microscopy. We also did entomological surveys 1 night per month in households from 20 randomly selected IPT and 20 control clusters. The primary trial outcome was parasite prevalence in the final community survey. The primary entomological survey outcome was the annual entomological inoculation rate (aEIR) from July, 2014, to April, 2015. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02009215. FINDINGS: Among 23 280 students registered in the 42 intervention schools, 10 079 (43%) aged 5-20 years were enrolled and received at least one dose of DP. 9286 (92%) of 10 079 received at least one full course of DP (three doses). Community-level parasite prevalence was lower in the intervention clusters than in the control clusters (19% vs 23%, adjusted risk ratio 0·85, 95% CI 0·73-1·00, p=0·05). The aEIR was lower in the intervention group than in the control group, but not significantly so (10·1 vs 15·2 infective bites per person, adjusted incidence rate ratio 0·80, 95% CI 0·36-1·80, p=0·59). INTERPRETATION: IPT of schoolchildren with DP might have a positive effect on community-level malaria indicators and be operationally feasible. Studies with greater IPT coverage are needed. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, UK Department for International Development, and Wellcome Trust.

Spatio-temporal analysis of malaria vector density from baseline through intervention in a high transmission setting.

BACKGROUND: An increase in effective malaria control since 2000 has contributed to a decline in global malaria morbidity and mortality. Knowing when and how existing interventions could be combined to maximise their impact on malaria vectors can provide valuable information for national malaria control programs in different malaria endemic settings. Here, we assess the effect of indoor residual spraying on malaria vector densities in a high malaria endemic setting in eastern Uganda as part of a cohort study where the use of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) was high. METHODS: Anopheles mosquitoes were sampled monthly using CDC light traps in 107 households selected randomly. Information on the use of malaria interventions in households was also gathered and recorded via a questionnaire. A Bayesian spatio-temporal model was then used to estimate mosquito densities adjusting for climatic and ecological variables and interventions. RESULTS: Anopheles gambiae (sensu lato) were most abundant (89.1%; n = 119,008) compared to An. funestus (sensu lato) (10.1%, n = 13,529). Modelling results suggest that the addition of indoor residual spraying (bendiocarb) in an area with high coverage of permethrin-impregnated LLINs (99%) was associated with a major decrease in mosquito vector densities. The impact on An. funestus (s.l.) (Rate Ratio 0.1508; 97.5% CI: 0.0144-0.8495) was twice as great as for An. gambiae (s.l.) (RR 0.5941; 97.5% CI: 0.1432-0.8577). CONCLUSIONS: High coverage of active ingredients on walls depressed vector populations in intense malaria transmission settings. Sustained use of combined interventions would have a long-term impact on mosquito densities, limiting infectious biting.

Assessing temporal associations between environmental factors and malaria morbidity at varying transmission settings in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Environmental factors play a major role in transmission of malaria given their relationship to both the development and survival of the mosquito and parasite. The associations between environmental factors and malaria can be used to inform the development of early warning systems for increases in malaria burden. The objective of this study was to assess temporal relationships between rainfall, temperature and vegetation with malaria morbidity across three different transmission settings in Uganda. METHODS: Temporal relationships between environmental factors (weekly total rainfall, mean day time temperature and enhanced vegetation index series) and malaria morbidity (weekly malaria case count data and test positivity rate series) over the period January 2010-May 2013 in three sites located in varying malaria transmission settings in Uganda was explored using cross-correlation with pre-whitening. Sites included Kamwezi (low transmission), Kasambya (moderate transmission) and Nagongera (high transmission). RESULTS: Nagongera received the most rain (30.6 mm) and experienced, on average, the highest daytime temperatures (29.8 °C) per week. In the study period, weekly TPR and number of malaria cases were highest at Kasambya and lowest at Kamwezi. The largest cross-correlation coefficients between environmental factors and malaria morbidity for each site was 0.27 for Kamwezi (rainfall and cases), 0.21 for Kasambya (vegetation and TPR), and -0.27 for Nagongera (daytime temperature and TPR). Temporal associations between environmental factors (rainfall, temperature and vegetation) with malaria morbidity (number of malaria cases and TPR) varied by transmission setting. Longer time lags were observed at Kamwezi and Kasambya compared to Nagongera in the relationship between rainfall and number of malaria cases. Comparable time lags were observed at Kasambya and Nagongera in the relationship between temperature and malaria morbidity. Temporal analysis of vegetation with malaria morbidity revealed longer lags at Kasambya compared to those observed at the other two sites. CONCLUSIONS: This study showed that temporal associations between environmental factors with malaria morbidity vary by transmission setting in Uganda. This suggests the need to incorporate local transmission differences when developing malaria early warning systems that have environmental predictors in Uganda. This will result in development of more accurate early warning systems, which are a prerequisite for effective malaria control in such a setting.

The Impact of an Intervention to Improve Malaria Care in Public Health Centers on Health Indicators of Children in Tororo, Uganda (PRIME): A Cluster-Randomized Trial.

Optimizing quality of care for malaria and other febrile illnesses is a complex challenge of major public health importance. To evaluate the impact of an intervention aiming to improve malaria case management on the health of community children, a cluster-randomized trial was conducted from 2010-2013 in Tororo, Uganda, where malaria transmission is high. Twenty public health centers were included; 10 were randomized in a 1:1 ratio to intervention or control. Households within 2 km of health centers provided the sampling frame for the evaluation. The PRIME intervention included training in fever case management using malaria rapid diagnostic tests (mRDTs), patient-centered services, and health center management; plus provision of mRDTs and artemether-lumefantrine. Cross-sectional community surveys were conducted at baseline and endline (N = 8,766), and a cohort of children was followed for approximately 18 months (N = 992). The primary outcome was prevalence of anemia (hemoglobin < 11.0 g/dL) in children under 5 years of age in the final community survey. The intervention was delivered successfully; however, no differences in prevalence of anemia or parasitemia were observed between the study arms in the final community survey or the cohort. In the final survey, prevalence of anemia in children under 5 years of age was 62.5% in the intervention versus 63.1% in control (adjusted risk ratio = 1.01; 95% confidence interval = 0.91-1.13; P = 0.82). The PRIME intervention, focusing on training and commodities, did not produce the expected health benefits in community children in Tororo. This challenges common assumptions that improving quality of care and access to malaria diagnostics will yield health gains.