Benefit of adjuvant chemotherapy on recurrence free survival per consensus molecular subtype in stage III colon cancer.

The consensus molecular subtype (CMS) classification divides colon tumors into four subtypes holding promise as a predictive biomarker. However, the effect of adjuvant chemotherapy on recurrence free survival (RFS) per CMS in stage III patients remains inadequately explored. With this intention, we selected stage III colon cancer (CC) patients from the MATCH cohort (n = 575) and RadboudUMC (n = 276) diagnosed between 2005 and 2018. Patients treated with and without adjuvant chemotherapy were matched based on tumor location, T- and N-stage (n = 522). Tumor material was available for 464 patients, with successful RNA extraction and CMS subtyping achieved in 390 patients (surgery alone group: 192, adjuvant chemotherapy group: 198). In the overall cohort, CMS4 was associated with poorest prognosis (HR 1.55; p = .03). Multivariate analysis revealed favorable RFS for the adjuvant chemotherapy group in CMS1, CMS2, and CMS4 tumors (HR 0.19; p = .01, HR 0.27; p < .01, HR 0.19; p < .01, respectively), while no significant difference between treatment groups was observed within CMS3 (HR 0.68; p = .51). CMS subtyping in this non-randomized cohort identified patients with poor prognosis and patients who may not benefit significantly from adjuvant chemotherapy.

Discovering novel germline genetic variants linked to severe fluoropyrimidine-related toxicity in- and outside DPYD.

BACKGROUND: The Alpe-DPD study (NCT02324452) demonstrated that prospective genotyping and dose-individualization using four alleles in DPYD (DPYD*2A/rs3918290, c.1236G > A/rs75017182, c.2846A > T/rs67376798 and c.1679 T > G/rs56038477) can mitigate the risk of severe fluoropyrimidine toxicity. However, this could not prevent all toxicities. The goal of this study was to identify additional genetic variants, both inside and outside DPYD, that may contribute to fluoropyrimidine toxicity. METHODS: Biospecimens and data from the Alpe-DPD study were used. Exon sequencing was performed to identify risk variants inside DPYD. In silico and in vitro analyses were used to classify DPYD variants. A genome-wide association study (GWAS) with severe fluoropyrimidine-related toxicity was performed to identify variants outside DPYD. Association with severe toxicity was assessed using matched-pair analyses for the exon sequencing and logistic, Cox, and ordinal regression analyses for GWAS. RESULTS: Twenty-four non-synonymous, frameshift, and splice site DPYD variants were detected in ten of 986 patients. Seven of these variants (c.1670C > T, c.1913 T > C, c.1925 T > C, c.506delC, c.731A > C, c.1740 + 1G > T, c.763 - 2A > G) were predicted to be deleterious. The carriers of either of these variants showed a trend towards a 2.14-fold (95% CI, 0.41-11.3, P = 0.388) increased risk of severe toxicity compared to matched controls (N = 30). After GWAS of 942 patients, no individual single nucleotide polymorphisms achieved genome-wide significance (P ≤ 5 × 10-8), however, five variants were suggestive of association (P < 5 × 10-6) with severe toxicity. CONCLUSIONS: Results from DPYD exon sequencing and GWAS analysis did not identify additional genetic variants associated with severe toxicity, which suggests that testing for single markers at a population level currently has limited clinical value. Identifying additional variants on an individual level is still promising to explain fluoropyrimidine-related severe toxicity. In addition, studies with larger samples sizes, in more diverse cohorts are needed to identify potential clinically relevant genetic variants related to severe fluoropyrimidine toxicity.

Dietary and lifestyle inflammation scores in relation to colorectal cancer recurrence and all-cause mortality: A longitudinal analysis.

AIM: The aim of this study was to longitudinally investigate dietary and lifestyle inflammation scores and their interaction in relation to risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) recurrence and all-cause mortality. METHODS: Data of two prospective cohort studies among CRC survivors was used. Information about diet and/or lifestyle was available for 2739 individuals for at least one of the following time points: at diagnosis, six months after diagnosis and two years after diagnosis. The dietary and lifestyle inflammation scores (DIS and LIS) were used to evaluate the inflammatory potential of diet and lifestyle. Joint modelling, combining mixed models and Cox proportional hazards regression, were used to assess associations between DIS and LIS over time and CRC recurrence and all-cause mortality. Interactions between DIS and LIS were assessed using time-dependent Cox proportional hazard regression. RESULTS: The median follow-up time was 4.8 (IQR 2.9-6.9) years for recurrence and 5.7 (IQR 3.5-8.5) years for all-cause mortality, with 363 and 453 events, respectively. A higher DIS as well as LIS was associated with a higher risk of all-cause mortality (HRDIScontinuous 1.09 95%CI 1.02; 1.15; HRLIScontinuous 1.24 95%CI 1.05; 1.46). Individuals who were in the upper tertile of both DIS and LIS had the highest all-cause mortality risk (HR 1.62 95%CI 1.16; 2.28), compared to the individuals in the lowest tertile of both DIS and LIS. No consistent associations with recurrence were observed. CONCLUSION: A more pro-inflammatory diet and lifestyle was associated with a higher risk of all-cause mortality, but not recurrence, in CRC survivors.

Early evaluation of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of ctDNA-guided selection for adjuvant chemotherapy in stage II colon cancer.

Background: Current patient selection for adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT) after curative surgery for stage II colon cancer (CC) is suboptimal, causing overtreatment of high-risk patients and undertreatment of low-risk patients. Postoperative circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) could improve patient selection for ACT. Objectives: We conducted an early model-based evaluation of the (cost-)effectiveness of ctDNA-guided selection for ACT in stage II CC in the Netherlands to assess the conditions for cost-effective implementation. Methods: A validated Markov model, simulating 1000 stage II CC patients from diagnosis to death, was supplemented with ctDNA data. Five ACT selection strategies were evaluated: the current guideline (pT4, pMMR), ctDNA-only, and three strategies that combined ctDNA status with pT4 and pMMR status in different ways. For each strategy, the costs, life years, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), recurrences, and CC deaths were estimated. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the impact of the costs of ctDNA testing, strategy adherence, ctDNA as a predictive biomarker, and ctDNA test performance. Results: Model predictions showed that compared to current guidelines, the ctDNA-only strategy was less effective (+2.2% recurrences, -0.016 QALYs), while the combination strategies were more effective (-3.6% recurrences, +0.038 QALYs). The combination strategies were not cost-effective, since the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was €67,413 per QALY, exceeding the willingness-to-pay threshold of €50,000 per QALY. Sensitivity analyses showed that the combination strategies would be cost-effective if the ctDNA test costs were lower than €1500, or if ctDNA status was predictive of treatment response, or if the ctDNA test performance improved substantially. Conclusion: Adding ctDNA to current high-risk clinicopathological features (pT4 and pMMR) can improve patient selection for ACT and can also potentially be cost-effective. Future studies should investigate the predictive value of post-surgery ctDNA status to accurately evaluate the cost-effectiveness of ctDNA testing for ACT decisions in stage II CC.

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of circulating tumour DNA-guided selection for adjuvant chemotherapy in patients with stage II colon cancer Most patients with stage II colon cancer (CC) are cured by surgery. Therefore, guidelines recommend to only offer adjuvant chemotherapy to patients who have a tumor with high-risk features. However, current selection is suboptimal, leading to recurrence of cancer in 13% of low-risk patients and unnecessary administration of chemotherapy in some high-risk patients. Previous studies indicate that a biomarker, so-called circulating tumour DNA (ctDNA), could improve the selection of high-risk patients for adjuvant chemotherapy, as patients who have detectable ctDNA in their blood after surgery are likely to develop a recurrence. Despite its potential, implementation is still pending. Our study assessed the long-term effectiveness and costs associated with various ctDNA-guided strategies for selecting high-risk patients for adjuvant chemotherapy in stage II CC. We used an health-economic model to simulate a cohort of 1000 Dutch patients with stage II CC from diagnosis to death. Next, we compared the health outcomes and costs of the ctDNA-guided strategies to those when selection is based on the Dutch guideline. We found that a combination of the Dutch guideline and ctDNA was the most effective strategy, but not cost-effective. Additional analyses showed that ctDNA-guided selection were cost-effective if the costs of the ctDNA test were below 1500 euros, if the ctDNA test performed significantly better, or if patients with detectable ctDNA responded better to chemotherapy. Thus, while post-surgery ctDNA status is a good indicator for recurrence risk, specific criteria related to ctDNA test performance and costs, in addition to combining ctDNA with current high-risk features, should be met to achieve cost-effective implementation. Looking ahead, future studies should explore how patients with detectable ctDNA respond to chemotherapy for next assessments of the cost-effectiveness of ctDNA-guided strategies in selecting patients with stage II CC for adjuvant chemotherapy.

Use of automated assessment for determining associations of low muscle mass and muscle loss with overall survival in patients with colorectal cancer - A validation study.

BACKGROUND: Low muscle mass and skeletal muscle mass (SMM) loss are associated with adverse patient outcomes, but the time-consuming nature of manual SMM quantification prohibits implementation of this metric in clinical practice. Therefore, we assessed the feasibility of automated SMM quantification compared to manual quantification. We evaluated both diagnostic accuracy for low muscle mass and associations of SMM (change) with survival in colorectal cancer (CRC) patients. METHODS: Computed tomography (CT) images from CRC patients enrolled in two clinical studies were analyzed. We compared i) manual vs. automated segmentation of preselected slices at the third lumbar [L3] vertebra ("semi-automated"), and ii) manual L3-slice-selection + manual segmentation vs. automated L3-slice-selection + automated segmentation ("fully-automated"). Automated L3-selection and automated segmentation was performed with Quantib Body Composition v0.2.1. Bland-Altman analyses, within-subject coefficients of variation (WSCVs) and Intraclass Correlation Coefficients (ICCs) were used to evaluate the agreement between manual and automatic segmentation. Diagnostic accuracy for low muscle mass (defined by an established sarcopenia cut-off) was calculated with manual assessment as the "gold standard". Using either manual or automated assessment, Cox proportional hazard ratios (HRs) were used to study the association between changes in SMM (>5% decrease yes/no) during first-line metastatic CRC treatment and mortality adjusted for prognostic factors. SMM change was also assessed separately in weight-stable (<5%, i.e. occult SMM loss) patients. RESULTS: In total, 1580 CT scans were analyzed, while a subset of 307 scans were analyzed in the fully-automated comparison. Included patients (n = 553) had a mean age of 63 ± 9 years and 39% were female. The semi-automated comparison revealed a bias of -2.41 cm2, 95% limits of agreement [-9.02 to 4.20], a WSCV of 2.25%, and an ICC of 0.99 (95% confidence intervals (CI) 0.97 to 1.00). The fully-automated comparison method revealed a bias of -0.08 cm2 [-10.91 to 10.75], a WSCV of 2.85% and an ICC of 0.98 (95% CI 0.98 to 0.99). Sensitivity and specificity for low muscle mass were 0.99 and 0.89 for the semi-automated comparison and 0.96 and 0.90 for the fully-automated comparison. SMM decrease was associated with shorter survival in both manual and automated assessment (n = 78/280, HR 1.36 [95% CI 1.03 to 1.80] and n = 89/280, HR 1.38 [95% CI 1.05 to 1.81]). Occult SMM loss was associated with shorter survival in manual assessment, but not significantly in automated assessment (n = 44/263, HR 1.43 [95% CI 1.01 to 2.03] and n = 51/2639, HR 1.23 [95% CI 0.87 to 1.74]). CONCLUSION: Deep-learning based assessment of SMM at L3 shows reliable performance, enabling the use of CT measures to guide clinical decision making. Implementation in clinical practice helps to identify patients with low muscle mass or (occult) SMM loss who may benefit from lifestyle interventions.

Survival and patient-reported outcomes of real-world high-risk stage II and stage III colon cancer patients after reduction of adjuvant CAPOX duration from 6 to 3 months.

AIM: Adjuvant chemotherapy has been advised for high-risk stage II and III colon cancer since 2004. After the IDEA study showed no clinically relevant difference in outcome, reduction of adjuvant CAPOX duration from 6 to 3 months was rapidly adopted in the Dutch treatment guideline in 2017. This study investigates the real-world impact of the guideline change on overall survival (OS) and patient-reported outcomes (PROs). METHODS: Patients with high-risk stage II (pT4 +) and III (pN+) colon cancer were selected from the Netherlands Cancer Registry, based on surgical resection and adjuvant CAPOX before (2015-2016) versus after (2018-2019) the guideline change. Both groups were compared on OS, using multivariable Cox regression, and on PROs. RESULTS: Patients treated before (n = 2330) and after (n = 2108) the guideline change showed similar OS (HR 1.02; 95 %CI [0.89-1.16]), also in high-risk stage III (pT4/N2, HR 1.06 [0.89-1.26]). After the guideline change, 90 % of patients were treated for 3 months with no inferior OS to those still receiving 6 months (HR 0.89 [0.66-1.20]). PROs 2 years after CAPOX completion, available for a subset of patients, suggest a lower neuropathy (n = 366; 26.2 [21.3-31.1] to 16.5 [14.4-18.6]) and better quality of life (n = 396; 80.9 [78.6-83.2] to 83.9 [82.8-84.9]), but no significant difference in workability (n = 120; 31.5 [27.9-35.1]) to 35.3 [33.8-36.7]), with reduction from 6 to 3 months of CAPOX. CONCLUSION: This real-world study confirmed that shorter adjuvant CAPOX did not compromise OS and may improve PROs, complementing the IDEA study and supporting 3 months of adjuvant CAPOX in daily clinical practice.

Improving sustainability of a patient decision aid for systemic treatment of metastatic colorectal cancer: A qualitative study.

Objective: To improve sustainability of a patient decision aid for systemic treatment of metastatic colorectal cancer, we evaluated real-world experiences and identified ways to optimize decision aid content and future implementation. Methods: Semi-structured interviews with patients and medical oncologists addressed two main subjects: user experience and decision aid content. Content analysis was applied. Fifteen experts discussed the results and devised improvements based on experience and literature review. Results: Thirteen users were interviewed. They confirmed the relevance of the decision aid for shared decision making. Areas for improvement of content concerned; 1) outdated and missing information, 2) an imbalance in presentation of treatment benefits and harms, and 3) medical oncologists' expressed preference for a more center-specific or patient individualized decision aid, presenting a selection of the guideline recommended treatment options. Key points for improvement of implementation were better alignment within the care pathway, and clear instruction to users. Conclusion: We identified relevant opportunities for improvement of an existing decision aid and developed an updated version and accompanying implementation strategy accordingly. Innovation: This paper outlines an approach for continued decision aid and implementation strategy development which will add to sustainability. Implementation success of the improved decision aid is currently being studied in a multi-center mixed-methods implementation study.

Predicting Benefit From FOLFOXIRI Plus Bevacizumab in Patients With Metastatic Colorectal Cancer.

PURPOSE: Patient outcomes may differ from randomized trial averages. We aimed to predict benefit from FOLFOXIRI versus infusional fluorouracil, leucovorin, and oxaliplatin/fluorouracil, leucovorin, and irinotecan (FOLFOX/FOLFIRI), both plus bevacizumab, in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). METHODS: A Cox model with prespecified clinical, molecular, and laboratory variables was developed in 639 patients from the TRIBE2 trial for predicting 2-year mortality. Data from the CHARTA (n = 232), TRIBE1 (n = 504), and CAIRO5 (liver-only mCRC, n = 287) trials were used for external validation and heterogeneity of treatment effects (HTE) analysis. This involves categorizing patients into risk groups and assessing treatment effects across these groups. Performance was assessed by the C-index and calibration plots. The C-for-benefit was calculated to assess evidence for HTE. The c-for-benefit is specifically designed for HTE analysis. Like the commonly known c-statistic, it summarizes the discrimination of a model. Values over 0.5 indicate evidence for HTE. RESULTS: In TRIBE2, the overoptimism-corrected C-index was 0.66 (95% CI, 0.63 to 0.69). At external validation, the C-index was 0.69 (95% CI, 0.64 to 0.75), 0.68 (95% CI, 0.64 to 0.72), and 0.65 (95% CI, 0.65 to 0.66), in CHARTA, TRIBE1, and CAIRO5, respectively. Calibration plots indicated slight underestimation of mortality. The c-for-benefit indicated evidence for HTE in CHARTA (0.56, 95% CI, 0.48 to 0.65), but not in TRIBE1 (0.49, 95% CI, 0.44 to 0.55) and CAIRO5 (0.40, 95% CI, 0.32 to 0.48). CONCLUSION: Although 2-year mortality could be reasonably estimated, the HTE analysis showed that clinically available variables did not reliably identify which patients with mCRC benefit from FOLFOXIRI versus FOLFOX/FOLFIRI, both plus bevacizumab, across the three studies.

Prognostic value of liver metastases in colorectal cancer treated by systemic therapy: An ARCAD pooled analysis.

BACKGROUND: The liver is the most frequent site of metastases in colorectal cancer (CRC). This study aimed to assess the response rate and survival outcomes in metastatic CRC patients with non-liver metastases (NLM) compared to those with liver metastases (LM) across different lines of treatment. METHODS: A total of 17,924 mCRC patients included in 26 trials from the ARCAD CRC database were analyzed. The analysis was conducted based on the presence or absence of LM across different treatment groups: chemotherapy (CT) alone, CT + anti-VEGF, CT + anti-EGFR in KRAS wild-type tumors, within the first-line (1 L) and second-line (2 L), and patients enrolled in third-line (≥3 L) trials treated with trifluridine/tipiracil or regorafenib or placebo. The endpoints were overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), and overall response rate (ORR). RESULTS: Out of the 17,924 patients, 14,066 had LM (30.6 % with only liver involvement and 69.4 % with liver and other metastatic sites), while 3858 patients had NLM. In the CT alone and CT + anti-VEGF subgroups, NLM patients showed better OS and PFS in the 1 L and 2 L settings. However, in the CT + anti-EGFR 1 L and 2 L subgroups, there was no significant difference in OS and PFS between NLM and LM patients. In the ≥ 3 L subgroups, better OS and PFS were observed in NLM patients. ORRs were higher in LM patients than in NLM patients across all cohorts treated in the 1 L and only in the anti-EGFR cohort in the 2 L. CONCLUSION: LM is a poor prognostic factor for mCRC increasing from 1 L to ≥ 3 L except for patients in 1 L and 2 L receiving CT+anti-EGFR. These data justify using LM as a stratification factor in future trials for patients with unresectable mCRC.

Efficacy-effectiveness analysis on survival in a population-based real-world study of BRAF-mutated metastatic colorectal cancer patients treated with encorafenib-cetuximab.

BACKGROUND: Encorafenib-cetuximab has been approved for pretreated BRAFV600E-mutated metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) patients based on efficacy demonstrated in the randomized phase III BEACON trial. The aim of this real-world effectiveness study is to improve knowledge on the generalizability of trial results. METHODS: This population-based real-world study includes all mCRC patients in the Netherlands treated with encorafenib-cetuximab since approval. Individual patient data and pathology reports were collected. Overall survival (OS) was compared to BEACON and subgroup analyses were conducted for patients who would have been eligible and ineligible for BEACON. RESULTS: 166 patients were included with a median follow-up time of 14.5 months. Median OS was 6.7 months (95% CI:6.0-8.3) and differed from BEACON (9.3 months; 95% CI:8.0-11.3, p-value 0.002). Thirty-six percent of real-world patients would have been ineligible for the BEACON trial. Trial ineligible subgroups with symptomatic brain metastases and WHO performance status ≥2 had the poorest median OS of 5.0 months (95% CI:4.0-NR) and 3.9 months (95% CI:2.4-NR). CONCLUSION: This real-world cohort of mCRC patients treated with encorafenib-cetuximab showed a clinically relevant efficacy-effectiveness gap for OS. The chance of survival benefit from encorafenib-cetuximab in patients with brain metastases and/or WHO performance status ≥2 is negligible as neither efficacy nor effectiveness has been demonstrated.

Associations between low- and high-fat dairy intake and recurrence risk in people with stage I-III colorectal cancer differ by sex and primary tumour location.

We previously demonstrated that intake of low-fat dairy, but not high-fat dairy, was associated with a decreased colorectal cancer (CRC) recurrence risk. These risks, however, may differ by sex, primary tumour location, and disease stage. Combining data from two similar prospective cohort studies of people with stage I-III CRC enabled these subgroup analyses. Participants completed a food frequency questionnaire at diagnosis (n = 2283). We examined associations between low- and high-fat dairy intake and recurrence risk using multivariable Cox proportional hazard models, stratified by sex, and primary tumour location (colon and rectum), and disease stage (I/II and III). Upper quartiles were compared to lower quartiles of intake, and recurrence was defined as a locoregional recurrence and/or metastasis. During a median follow-up of 5.0 years, 331 recurrences were detected. A higher intake of low-fat dairy was associated with a reduced risk of recurrence (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.60, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.43-0.83), which seemed more pronounced in men (HR: 0.51, 95% CI: 0.34-0.77) than in women (HR: 0.84, 95% CI: 0.47-1.49). A higher intake of high-fat dairy was associated with an increased risk of recurrence in participants with colon cancer (HR: 1.60, 95% CI: 1.03-2.50), but not rectal cancer (HR: 0.88, 95% CI: 0.54-1.45). No differences in associations were observed between strata of disease stage. Concluding, our findings imply that dietary advice regarding low-fat dairy intake may be especially important for men with CRC, and that dietary advice regarding high-fat dairy intake may be specifically important in people with colon cancer.

Harnessing the Potential of Real-World Evidence in the Treatment of Colorectal Cancer: Where Do We Stand?

OPINION STATEMENT: Treatment guidelines for colorectal cancer (CRC) are primarily based on the results of randomized clinical trials (RCTs), the gold standard methodology to evaluate safety and efficacy of oncological treatments. However, generalizability of trial results is often limited due to stringent eligibility criteria, underrepresentation of specific populations, and more heterogeneity in clinical practice. This may result in an efficacy-effectiveness gap and uncertainty regarding meaningful benefit versus treatment harm. Meanwhile, conduct of traditional RCTs has become increasingly challenging due to identification of a growing number of (small) molecular subtypes. These challenges-combined with the digitalization of health records-have led to growing interest in use of real-world data (RWD) to complement evidence from RCTs. RWD is used to evaluate epidemiological trends, quality of care, treatment effectiveness, long-term (rare) safety, and quality of life (QoL) measures. In addition, RWD is increasingly considered in decision-making by clinicians, regulators, and payers. In this narrative review, we elaborate on these applications in CRC, and provide illustrative examples. As long as the quality of RWD is safeguarded, ongoing developments, such as common data models, federated learning, and predictive modelling, will further unfold its potential. First, whenever possible, we recommend conducting pragmatic trials, such as registry-based RCTs, to optimize generalizability and answer clinical questions that are not addressed in registrational trials. Second, we argue that marketing approval should be conditional for patients who would have been ineligible for the registrational trial, awaiting planned (non) randomized evaluation of outcomes in the real world. Third, high-quality effectiveness results should be incorporated in treatment guidelines to aid in patient counseling. We believe that a coordinated effort from all stakeholders is essential to improve the quality of RWD, create a learning healthcare system with optimal use of trials and real-world evidence (RWE), and ultimately ensure personalized care for every CRC patient.

Oncologic outcomes of screen-detected and non-screen-detected T1 colorectal cancers.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of T1 colorectal cancer (CRC) has increased with the implementation of CRC screening programs. It is unknown whether the outcomes and risk models for T1 CRC based on non-screen-detected patients can be extrapolated to screen-detected T1 CRC. This study aimed to compare the stage distribution and oncologic outcomes of T1 CRC patients within and outside the screening program. METHODS: Data from T1 CRC patients diagnosed between 2014 and 2017 were collected from 12 hospitals in the Netherlands. The presence of lymph node metastasis (LNM) at diagnosis was compared between screen-detected and non-screen-detected patients using multivariable logistic regression. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to analyze differences in the time to recurrence (TTR), metastasis-free survival (MFS), cancer-specific survival (CSS), and overall survival. Additionally, the performance of conventional risk factors for LNM was evaluated across the groups. RESULTS: 1803 patients were included (1114 [62%] screen-detected), with median follow-up of 51 months (interquartile range 30). The proportion of LNM did not significantly differ between screen- and non-screen-detected patients (12.6% vs. 8.9%; odds ratio 1.41; 95%CI 0.89-2.23); a prediction model for LNM performed equally in both groups. The 3- and 5-year TTR, MFS, and CSS were similar for patients within and outside the screening program. However, overall survival was significantly longer in screen-detected T1 CRC patients (adjusted hazard ratio 0.51; 95%CI 0.38-0.68). CONCLUSIONS: Screen-detected and non-screen-detected T1 CRCs have similar stage distributions and oncologic outcomes and can therefore be treated equally. However, screen-detected T1 CRC patients exhibit a lower rate of non-CRC-related mortality, resulting in longer overall survival.

Organoids as a biomarker for personalized treatment in metastatic colorectal cancer: drug screen optimization and correlation with patient response.

BACKGROUND: The inability to predict treatment response of colorectal cancer patients results in unnecessary toxicity, decreased efficacy and survival. Response testing on patient-derived organoids (PDOs) is a promising biomarker for treatment efficacy. The aim of this study is to optimize PDO drug screening methods for correlation with patient response and explore the potential to predict responses to standard chemotherapies. METHODS: We optimized drug screen methods on 5-11 PDOs per condition of the complete set of 23 PDOs from patients treated for metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). PDOs were exposed to 5-fluorouracil (5-FU), irinotecan- and oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy. We compared medium with and without N-acetylcysteine (NAC), different readouts and different combination treatment set-ups to capture the strongest association with patient response. We expanded the screens using the optimized methods for all PDOs. Organoid sensitivity was correlated to the patient's response, determined by % change in the size of target lesions. We assessed organoid sensitivity in relation to prior exposure to chemotherapy, mutational status and sidedness. RESULTS: Drug screen optimization involved excluding N-acetylcysteine from the medium and biphasic curve fitting for 5-FU & oxaliplatin combination screens. CellTiter-Glo measurements were comparable with CyQUANT and did not affect the correlation with patient response. Furthermore, the correlation improved with application of growth rate metrics, when 5-FU & oxaliplatin was screened in a ratio, and 5-FU & SN-38 using a fixed dose of SN-38. Area under the curve was the most robust drug response curve metric. After optimization, organoid and patient response showed a correlation coefficient of 0.58 for 5-FU (n = 6, 95% CI -0.44,0.95), 0.61 for irinotecan- (n = 10, 95% CI -0.03,0.90) and 0.60 for oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy (n = 11, 95% CI -0.01,0.88). Median progression-free survival of patients with resistant PDOs to oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy was significantly shorter than sensitive PDOs (3.3 vs 10.9 months, p = 0.007). Increased resistance to 5-FU in patients with prior exposure to 5-FU/capecitabine was adequately reflected in PDOs (p = 0.003). CONCLUSIONS: Our study emphasizes the critical impact of the screening methods for determining correlation between PDO drug screens and mCRC patient outcomes. Our 5-step optimization strategy provides a basis for future research on the clinical utility of PDO screens.

Adjuvant chemotherapy in patients with clinically node-negative but pathologically node-positive rectal cancer in the Netherlands: A retrospective analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Accurate clinical staging of rectal cancer is hampered by suboptimal sensitivity of MRI in the detection of regional lymph node metastases. Consequently, some patients may be understaged and have been withheld neoadjuvant (chemo)radiotherapy in retrospect. Although Dutch guidelines do not advocate adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT) in rectal cancer, some of these clinically understaged patients receive ACT according to local policy. We aim to assess the benefit of ACT in these patients. METHODS: Population-based data from patients with clinically node-negative (cN0) but pathologically node-positive (pN+) rectal cancer that underwent total mesorectal excision (TME) without neoadjuvant treatment between 2008 and 2018 were obtained from the Netherlands Cancer Registry. Missing data were handled by multiple imputation. Stabilised inverse probability treatment weighting (sIPTW) was used to balance clinical characteristics. Overall survival (OS) was compared in ACT and non-ACT patients. RESULTS: Of 34,724 patients, 13,861 had cN0 disease of whom 3016 were pN+ (21.8%). 1466 (48.6%) of these patients underwent upfront TME and were included. Median follow-up was 84 months (95% confidence interval [CI] 76-97) versus 79 months (95% CI 77-81) in patients that did (n = 290, 19.8%) and did not (n = 1176, 80.2%) receive ACT, respectively. After sIPTW adjustment, ACT was associated with improved OS (hazard ratio 0.70; 95% CI 0.49-0.99; p = 0.04). The estimated 5-year OS rate was 74.2% versus 65.3%, respectively. CONCLUSION: In this population-based cohort of patients with cN0 but pN+ rectal cancer who underwent upfront TME, ACT was associated with a significant OS benefit. These data support to discuss ACT in this population.

Determinants of Physical Activity among Patients with Colorectal Cancer: From Diagnosis to 5 Years after Diagnosis.

INTRODUCTION: Physical activity (PA) is associated with higher quality of life and probably better prognosis among colorectal cancer (CRC) patients. This study focuses on determinants of PA among CRC patients from diagnosis until 5 yr postdiagnosis. METHODS: Sociodemographic and disease-related factors of participants of two large CRC cohort studies were combined. Moderate-to-vigorous PA during sport and leisure time (MVPA-SL) was measured at diagnosis (T0) and 6, 12, 24, and 60 months (T6 to T60) postdiagnosis, using the SQUASH questionnaire. Mixed-effects models were performed to identify sociodemographic and disease-related determinants of MVPA-SL, separately for stage I-III colon (CC), stage I-III rectal cancer (RC), and stage IV CRC (T0 and T6 only). Associations were defined as consistently present when significant at ≥4 timepoints for the stage I-III subsets. MVPA-SL levels were compared with an age- and sex-matched sample of the general Dutch population. RESULTS: In total, 2905 CC, 1459 RC and 436 stage IV CRC patients were included. Patients with higher fatigue scores, and women compared with men had consistently lower MVPA-SL levels over time, regardless of tumor type and stage. At T6, having a stoma was significantly associated with lower MVPA-SL among stage I-III RC patients. Systemic therapy and radiotherapy were not significantly associated with MVPA-SL changes at T6. Compared with the general population, MVPA-SL levels of CRC patients were lower at all timepoints, most notably at T6. CONCLUSIONS: Female sex and higher fatigue scores were consistent determinants of lower MVPA-SL levels among all CRC patients, and MVPA-SL levels were lowest at 6 months postdiagnosis. Our results can inform the design of intervention studies aimed at improving PA, and guide healthcare professionals in optimizing individualized support.

Stromal localization of inactive CD8+ T cells in metastatic mismatch repair deficient colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: The determinants of metastasis in mismatch repair deficiency with high levels of microsatellite instability (MSI-H) in colorectal cancer (CRC) are poorly understood. Here, we hypothesized that distinct immune and stromal microenvironments in primary tumors may discriminate between non-metastatic MSI-H CRC and metastatic MSI-H CRC. METHODS: We profiled 46,727 single cells using high-plex imaging mass cytometry and analyzed both differential cell type abundance, and spatial distribution of fibroblasts and immune cells in primary CRC tumors with or without metastatic capacity. We validated our findings in a second independent cohort using immunohistochemistry. RESULTS: High-plex imaging mass cytometry and hierarchical clustering based on microenvironmental markers separated primary MSI-H CRC tumors with and without metastatic capacity. Primary tumors with metastatic capacity displayed a high stromal content and low influx of CD8+ T cells, which expressed significantly lower levels of markers reflecting proliferation (Ki67) and antigen-experience (CD45RO) compared to CD8+ T cells in non-metastatic tumors. CD8+ T cells showed intra-epithelial localization in non-metastatic tumors, but stromal localization in metastatic tumors, which was validated in a second cohort. CONCLUSION: We conclude that localization of phenotypically distinct CD8+ T cells within stroma may predict metastasis formation in MSI-H CRC.

Impact of colorectal cancer screening on survival after metachronous metastasis.

BACKGROUND: An increasing proportion of colorectal cancer (CRC) cases in Europe are detected by screening with faecal immunochemical testing (FIT). Previous studies showed that population screening with FIT leads to a decrease in CRC incidence and to detection at an earlier stage. However, approximately twenty percent of patients with CRC without metastases at initial diagnosis still develop metachronous metastases. We investigated the association between detection mode of the primary tumor and overall survival (OS) after metachronous metastasis in patients with CRC. METHODS: Nationwide registry-based data was obtained of 794 patients who developed metachronous metastases after being diagnosed with stage I-III CRC between January and June 2015. With multivariable Cox PH regression modelling, we analyzed the (causal) association between detection mode of the primary tumor (FIT screen-detected versus non-screen-detected) and OS after metachronous metastasis while adjusting for potential confounders. RESULTS: Median OS and five-year OS after metachronous metastasis were significantly higher for patients with screen-detected (n = 152) vs. non-screen-detected primary tumors (n = 642): 38.3 vs. 19.2 months, and 35.4% vs. 18.8%, respectively, p < 0.0001). After adjustment for potential confounders, the association between detection mode and OS after metachronous metastasis remained significant (HR 0.70 [95% CI 0.56-0.89]). CONCLUSIONS: Screen-detection of the primary tumor was independently associated with longer OS after metachronous metastasis. This may support the clinical utility of the population screening program and it shows the prognostic value of detection mode of the primary tumor once metachronous metastasis is diagnosed.

A tailored approach to horizon scanning for cancer medicines.

BACKGROUND: Horizon scanning (HS) is the systematic identification of emerging therapies to inform policy and decision-makers. We developed an agile and tailored HS methodology that combined multi-criteria decision analysis weighting and Delphi rounds. As secondary objectives, we aimed to identify new medicines in melanoma, non-small cell lung cancer and colorectal cancer most likely to impact the Australian government's pharmaceutical budget by 2025 and to compare clinician and consumer priorities in cancer medicine reimbursement. METHOD: Three cancer-specific clinician panels (total n = 27) and a consumer panel (n = 7) were formed. Six prioritisation criteria were developed with consumer input. Criteria weightings were elicited using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Candidate medicines were identified and filtered from a primary database and validated against secondary and tertiary sources. Clinician panels participated in a three-round Delphi survey to identify and score the top five medicines in each cancer type. RESULTS: The AHP and Delphi process was completed in eight weeks. Prioritisation criteria focused on toxicity, quality of life (QoL), cost savings, strength of evidence, survival, and unmet need. In both curative and non-curative settings, consumers prioritised toxicity and QoL over survival gains, whereas clinicians prioritised survival. HS results project the ongoing prevalence of high-cost medicines. Since completion in October 2021, the HS has identified 70 % of relevant medicines submitted for Pharmaceutical Benefit Advisory Committee assessment and 60% of the medicines that received a positive recommendation. CONCLUSION: Tested in the Australian context, our method appears to be an efficient and flexible approach to HS that can be tailored to address specific disease types by using elicited weights to prioritise according to incremental value from both a consumer and clinical perspective. POLICY SUMMARY: Since HS is of global interest, our example provides a reproducible blueprint for adaptation to other healthcare settings that integrates consumer input and priorities.