Joint models reveal genetic architecture of pubertal stage transitions and their association with BMI in admixed Chilean population.

Early or late pubertal onset can lead to disease in adulthood, including cancer, obesity, type 2 diabetes, metabolic disorders, bone fractures, and psychopathologies. Thus, knowing the age at which puberty is attained is crucial as it can serve as a risk factor for future diseases. Pubertal development is divided into five stages of sexual maturation in boys and girls according to the standardized Tanner scale. We performed genome-wide association studies (GWAS) on the "Growth and Obesity Chilean Cohort Study" cohort composed of admixed children with mainly European and Native American ancestry. Using joint models that integrate time-to-event data with longitudinal trajectories of body mass index (BMI), we identified genetic variants associated with phenotypic transitions between pairs of Tanner stages. We identified $42$ novel significant associations, most of them in boys. The GWAS on Tanner $3\rightarrow 4$ transition in boys captured an association peak around the growth-related genes LARS2 and LIMD1 genes, the former of which causes ovarian dysfunction when mutated. The associated variants are expression and splicing Quantitative Trait Loci regulating gene expression and alternative splicing in multiple tissues. Further, higher individual Native American genetic ancestry proportions predicted a significantly earlier puberty onset in boys but not in girls. Finally, the joint models identified a longitudinal BMI parameter significantly associated with several Tanner stages' transitions, confirming the association of BMI with pubertal timing.

New insights from GWAS on BMI-related growth traits in a longitudinal cohort of admixed children with Native American and European ancestry.

Body-mass index (BMI) is a hallmark of adiposity. In contrast with adulthood, the genetic architecture of BMI during childhood is poorly understood. The few genome-wide association studies (GWAS) on children have been performed almost exclusively in Europeans and at single ages. We performed cross-sectional and longitudinal GWAS for BMI-related traits on 904 admixed children with mostly Mapuche Native American and European ancestries. We found regulatory variants of the immune gene HLA-DQB3 strongly associated with BMI at 1.5 - 2.5 years old. A variant in the sex-determining gene DMRT1 was associated with the age at adiposity rebound (Age-AR) in girls (P = 9.8 × 10 - 9 ). BMI was significantly higher in Mapuche than in Europeans between 5.5 and 16.5 years old. Finally, Age-AR was significantly lower (P = 0.004 ) by 1.94 years and BMI at AR was significantly higher (P = 0.04 ) by 1.2 kg/ m 2 , in Mapuche children compared with Europeans.

A Two-Stage Approach for Bayesian Joint Models of Longitudinal and Survival Data: Correcting Bias with Informative Prior.

Joint models of longitudinal and survival outcomes have gained much popularity in recent years, both in applications and in methodological development. This type of modelling is usually characterised by two submodels, one longitudinal (e.g., mixed-effects model) and one survival (e.g., Cox model), which are connected by some common term. Naturally, sharing information makes the inferential process highly time-consuming. In particular, the Bayesian framework requires even more time for Markov chains to reach stationarity. Hence, in order to reduce the modelling complexity while maintaining the accuracy of the estimates, we propose a two-stage strategy that first fits the longitudinal submodel and then plug the shared information into the survival submodel. Unlike a standard two-stage approach, we apply a correction by incorporating an individual and multiplicative fixed-effect with informative prior into the survival submodel. Based on simulation studies and sensitivity analyses, we empirically compare our proposal with joint specification and standard two-stage approaches. The results show that our methodology is very promising, since it reduces the estimation bias compared to the other two-stage method and requires less processing time than the joint specification approach.