Development and external validation of a nomogram for predicting postoperative adverse events in elderly patients undergoing lumbar fusion surgery: comparison of three predictive models.

BACKGROUND: The burden of lumbar degenerative diseases (LDD) has increased substantially with the unprecedented aging population. Identifying elderly patients with high risk of postoperative adverse events (AEs) and establishing individualized perioperative management is critical to mitigate added costs and optimize cost-effectiveness to the healthcare system. We aimed to develop a predictive tool for AEs in elderly patients with transforaminal lumbar interbody fusion (TLIF), utilizing multivariate logistic regression, single classification and regression tree (hereafter, "classification tree"), and random forest machine learning algorithms. METHODS: This study was a retrospective review of a prospective Geriatric Lumbar Disease Database (age ≥ 65). Our outcome measure was postoperative AEs, including prolonged hospital stays, postoperative complications, readmission, and reoperation within 90 days. Patients were grouped as either having at least one adverse event (AEs group) or not (No-AEs group). Three models for predicting postoperative AEs were developed using training dataset and internal validation using testing dataset. Finally, online tool was developed to assess its validity in the clinical setting (external validation). RESULTS: The development set included 1025 patients (mean [SD] age, 72.8 [5.6] years; 632 [61.7%] female), and the external validation set included 175 patients (73.2 [5.9] years; 97 [55.4%] female). The predictive ability of our three models was comparable, with no significant differences in AUC (0.73 vs. 0.72 vs. 0.70, respectively). The logistic regression model had a higher net benefit for clinical intervention than the other models. A nomogram based on logistic regression was developed, and the C-index of external validation for AEs was 0.69 (95% CI 0.65-0.76). CONCLUSION: The predictive ability of our three models was comparable. Logistic regression model had a higher net benefit for clinical intervention than the other models. Our nomogram and online tool ( https://xuanwumodel.shinyapps.io/Model_for_AEs/ ) could inform physicians about elderly patients with a high risk of AEs within the 90 days after TLIF surgery.

Development and external validation of a predictive model for prolonged length of hospital stay in elderly patients undergoing lumbar fusion surgery: comparison of three predictive models.

PURPOSE: This study aimed to develop a predictive model for prolonged length of hospital stay (pLOS) in elderly patients undergoing lumbar fusion surgery, utilizing multivariate logistic regression, single classification and regression tree (hereafter, "classification tree") and random forest machine-learning algorithms. METHODS: This study was a retrospective review of a prospective Geriatric Lumbar Disease Database. The primary outcome measure was pLOS, which was defined as the LOS greater than the 75th percentile. All patients were grouped as pLOS group and non-pLOS. Three models (including logistic regression, single-classification tree and random forest algorithms) for predicting pLOS were developed using training dataset and internal validation using testing dataset. Finally, online tool based on our model was developed to assess its validity in the clinical setting (external validation). RESULTS: The development set included 1025 patients (mean [SD] age, 72.8 [5.6] years; 632 [61.7%] female), and the external validation set included 175 patients (73.2 [5.9] years; 97[55.4%] female). Multivariate logistic analyses revealed that older age (odds ratio [OR] 1.06, p < 0.001), higher BMI (OR 1.08, p = 0.002), number of fused segments (OR 1.41, p < 0.001), longer operative time (OR 1.02, p < 0.001), and diabetes (OR 1.05, p = 0.046) were independent risk factors for pLOS in elderly patients undergoing lumbar fusion surgery. The single-classification tree revealed that operative time ≥ 232 min, delayed ambulation, and BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2 as particularly influential predictors for pLOS. A random forest model was developed using the remaining 14 variables. Intraoperative EBL, operative time, delayed ambulation, age, number of fused segments, BMI, and RBC count were the most significant variables in the final model. The predictive ability of our three models was comparable, with no significant differences in AUC (0.73 vs. 0.71 vs. 0.70, respectively). The logistic regression model had a higher net benefit for clinical intervention than the other models. The nomogram was developed, and the C-index of external validation for PLOS was 0.69 (95% CI, 0.65-0.76). CONCLUSION: This investigation produced three predictive models for pLOS in elderly patients undergoing lumbar fusion surgery. The predictive ability of our three models was comparable. Logistic regression model had a higher net benefit for clinical intervention than the other models. Our predictive model could inform physicians about elderly patients with a high risk of pLOS after surgery.

Comparative short-term outcomes of enhanced recovery after surgery (ERAS) program and non-ERAS traditional care in elderly patients undergoing lumbar arthrodesis: a retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: Enhanced recovery after surgery (ERAS) program is an evidence-based improvement over non-ERAS traditional care. The aim of the present study was to analyze the safety, feasibility, and efficacy of an ERAS program in patients over 70 years undergoing lumbar arthrodesis by comparison with non-ERAS traditional care. METHODS: During January 2018 to December 2018, patients enrolled received non-ERAS traditional care, while the ERAS program was implemented from January to December 2019. Demographic characteristics, comorbidities, surgical data and postoperative recovery parameters were collected from all patients. Postoperative pain scores were evaluated by visual analog scales (VAS). The clinical outcomes were length of stay (LOS), postoperative complications and postoperative pain scores. Compliance results were also collected. RESULT: A total of 127 patients were enrolled, including 67 patients in the non-ERAS traditional care group and 60 patients in the ERAS group. The demographic characteristics and comorbidities of the two groups showed no significant differences. The LOS of patients treated with ERAS program (13.6 ± 4.0 days) was significantly less than that of patients treated with non-ERAS traditional care (15.6 ± 3.9 days) (p = 0.034). Complication rate was 8.3% in the ERAS group versus 20.9% in the non-ERAS traditional care group (p = 0.048). VAS (back) in the ERAS group was significantly lower on postoperative day (POD) 1 and POD2. Postoperative recovery parameters were improved in the ERAS group. The overall compliance with the ERAS program was 94%. CONCLUSIONS: Based on our results, ERAS program is safer and more effective for elderly patients over 70 undergoing lumbar arthrodesis than non-ERAS traditional care.

A prospective comparative study of the MNA-SF and GNRI nutritional screening tools in predicting infectious complications among elderly patients over 70 years undergoing posterior lumbar arthrodesis.

Malnutrition is a risk factor for postoperative infectious complications of elderly patients undergoing posterior lumbar arthrodesis. At present, there is no gold standard for nutrition screening tools. We analyzed the value of predicting infectious complications among elderly patients over 70 years undergoing posterior lumbar arthrodesis by comparing the MNA-SF and GNRI. Demographic data, anthropometric measurements, serum albumin, surgical data and the occurrence of infectious complications and LOS were collected. Mini Nutritional Assessment short form (MNA-SF), Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index (GNRI) were performed within 24 h before surgery. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to identify predictors of infectious complications. The discriminatory performances of GNRI and MNA-SF scores for the occurrence of infectious complications were determined by receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC) analyses and the area under the curve (AUC). The study included 252 patients with a median age of 76.82 ± 6.41 years (range 70-84 years), and 142 patients (56.3%) were female. There were no significant differences in infectious complications (p = 0.236) and LOS (p = 0.580) among different GNRI categories. 27.3% malnourished patients evaluated by the MNA-SF suffered from infectious complications and 10.1% patients at risk of malnourished had infectious complications. Those patients had statistically significant higher prevalence of infectious complications (p = 0.002) and longer LOS (p = 0.023) than well-nourished patients. Multivariable analysis revealed that preoperative malnutrition and at risk of malnourished by the MNA-SF was significantly associated with infections. The area under the curve (AUC) of MNA-SF was 0.754, which was significantly high than AUC of GNRI (0.623) (Delong's test, p = 0.033). This study demonstrated that MNA-SF is a simple and effective tool for predicting the risk of infectious complications in elderly patients undergoing posterior lumbar arthrodesis.

Impact of Compliance with an Enhanced Recovery After Surgery Program on the Outcomes Among Elderly Patients Undergoing Lumbar Fusion Surgery.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: The benefits of the enhanced recovery after surgery (ERAS) program to elderly patients have not been evaluated in lumbar fusion surgery. Compliance with the ERAS program is associated with prognosis. There is currently no adequate assessment about the importance of the individual components of ERAS program in lumbar fusion surgery. The aim of the study was to analyze the effect of compliance with our ERAS program and the relative importance of the individual ERAS program components among elderly patients undergoing lumbar fusion surgery. METHODS: A retrospective case-review study was conducted from March 2018 to March 2020. The ERAS program for lumbar fusion surgery at our department was implemented. Overall compliance was found to be 92.9%, and this was used as a cutoff for dividing patients into higher compliance and lower compliance groups. Patient characteristics and clinical outcomes were compared between groups. RESULTS: The overall compliance rate was 92.9%, distributing 91 patients into the higher compliance group and 169 patients into the lower compliance group. Patients with higher compliance were younger (p=0.045). The length of stay (LOS) of patients with higher compliance was significantly shorter than that of patients with lower compliance. Patients with higher compliance had significantly fewer complications (p=0.031). A multivariate analysis showed that surgical time (p=0.029), lower compliance (p=0.034), and early oral feeding (p=0.026) were predictors of any postoperative complications. On multivariate analysis, the following items remained correlated with prolonged LOS (LOS≥12 days): older age (p=0.010), lower compliance (p<0.0001), early ambulation (p=0.018), and stick to discharge criteria (p=0.040). CONCLUSION: Low compliance with ERAS program among elderly patients undergoing lumbar fusion surgery was associated with a higher incidence of complications and prolonged LOS. The failure of early oral feeding was associated with increased complications, and the failure of early ambulation or sticking to discharge criteria was significantly more influential on prolonged LOS.

Ocular surface changes after strabismus surgery with different incisions.

OBJECTIVES: To compare ocular surface changes after strabismus surgery with different incisions. METHODS: One hundred and twenty eyes with exotropia were randomly assigned to Group A (limbal incision) or Group B (fornix incision). Dry eye questionnaire, corneal sensitivity, tear film breakup time (TFBUT), Schirmer I test (SIT), and corneal fluorescein staining (CFS) were assessed at 1 day preoperatively and at different postoperative times. RESULTS: In the A group, dry eye questionnaire scores increased and TFBUT decreased at postoperative weeks 1, 2, and 4. Corneal sensitivity decreased at postoperative weeks 1 and 2. In the B group, dry eye questionnaire scores increased and TFBUT decreased at postoperative weeks 1 and 2. Corneal sensitivity did not change. Postoperative between-group differences were significant in dry eye questionnaire scores (P = 0.0009, 1 week; P < 0.0001, 2 weeks; P = 0.0001, 4 weeks) and TFBUT (P = 0.004, 1 week; P = 0.0003, 2 weeks; P = 0.0001, 4 weeks). Between-group differences in CFS were significant postoperatively (P = 0.045, 1 week; P = 0.020, 2 weeks). CONCLUSION: Compared to fornix incision, limbal incision results in more serious dry eye symptoms and has a greater impact on corneal sensitivity and tear film stability.

Optical correction of aphakia following unilateral infantile cataract removal.

PURPOSE: To compare primary intra-ocular lens (IOL) implantation with use of press-on spherical lens for aphakia correction following unilateral infantile cataract removal. METHODS: Sixty infants with a unilateral cataract underwent cataract surgery and were randomly assigned to the IOL (A group) or no IOL group (B group). Residual refractive error was corrected with spectacles in the A group and a press-on spherical lens was used to treat aphakia in the B group. Grating visual acuity (VA) was measured and patients were followed for up to 1 year. RESULTS: LogMAR VA in the operated eyes of both groups was significantly better 1 year than 1 month after surgery. Mean logMAR VA difference between 1 year and 1 month after surgery was higher in the A group (0.457 ± 0.110) than in the B group (0.323 ± 0.114, p < 0.0001). Serious inflammation occurred significantly more often in the A group than in the B group (p = 0.007). Visual axis opacity occurred more often in the A group than in the B group (pupillary membrane: A: six eyes, 20%, B: none, p = 0.024; lens reproliferation: A: 10 eyes, 33%, B: two eyes, 7%, p = 0.021). Glaucoma occurred equally in both groups (p = 0.612). No other complications occurred. CONCLUSIONS: Primary IOL implantation appears to be a relatively safe, effective optical correction strategy following unilateral cataract extraction in this age group. Patients for whom an IOL is not suitable can be treated with a press-on spherical lens for optical correction.