Understanding reticence to occupy free, novel-design homes: A qualitative study in Mtwara, Southeast Tanzania.

INTRODUCTION: The population of Africa set to reach 2 billion by 2050. There is therefore great demand for housing across the continent. Research on modified novel designs for housing is a priority to ensure that these homes are not sites of infection for diseases transmission such as malaria. One trial to assess the protection afforded by novel design houses is underway in Mtwara Region, southeastern Tanzania. After constructing 110 of such homes across 60 villages, project staff encountered a certain reticence of the target population to occupy the homes and were faced with accusations of having nefarious intentions. This article explores these accusations, their impacts on home occupancy and lessons for future housing studies. METHODS: This qualitative study drew on in-depth interviews and focus group discussions with ten occupants of the intervention homes, six community leaders and a further 24 community members. Interviews were recorded, transcribed verbatim and translated to English for qualitative content analysis. RESULTS: In communities around the Star Homes, during construction and handover, project staff were widely associated with 'Freemasons', a term used to practices, secrecy, and other conspiracy theories in rural Tanzania. These connections were attributed to other community members and explained in terms of knowledge deficit or envy, with others hoping to be allocated the home. The stories were embedded in assumptions of reciprocity and suspicions about study motives, linked to limited experience of research. The relationship between the accusations of freemasonry and reticence to occupy the houses was not straightforward, with project staff or relatives playing a role in decisions. The stakes were high, because the recipients of Star Homes were the poorest families in targeted communities. CONCLUSION: The results indicate the need for long-term and proactive community engagement, which focuses on building relationships and providing information through recognizable voices and formats. Given the stakes at play in housing interventions, research teams should be prepared for the social upheaval the provision of free new housing can cause.

Studying the health benefits of improved housing in rural Tanzania: challenges and progress.

Millions of affordable healthy homes are needed for the rapidly expanding population of sub-Saharan Africa. This enormous challenge is an opportunity to address pervasive health issues linked to housing, where diseases that most impact children-malaria, diarrhoea and respiratory tract infections-are often acquired. A pilot project in northern Tanzania demonstrated the potential of novel house designs to reduce infectious disease transmission in homes. To conduct a randomized controlled trial of one novel-design house, the research team moved to the southeast of the country. This article describes the challenges experienced during the construction and initial evaluation of the novel house.

Entomological impact of mass administration of ivermectin and dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine in The Gambia: a cluster-randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Vector control interventions in sub-Saharan Africa rely on insecticide-treated nets and indoor residual spraying. Insecticide resistance, poor coverage of interventions, poor quality nets and changes in vector behavior threaten the effectiveness of these interventions and, consequently, alternative tools are needed. Mosquitoes die after feeding on humans or animals treated with ivermectin (IVM). Mass drug administration (MDA) with IVM could reduce vector survival and decrease malaria transmission. The entomological impact of MDA of combined IVM and dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine was assessed in a community-based, cluster-randomized trial. METHODS: A cluster-randomized trial was implemented in 2018 and 2019 in 32 villages in the Upper River Region, The Gambia. The with the inhabitants of 16 intervention villages eligible to receive three monthly rounds of MDA at the beginning of the malaria transmission season. Entomological surveillance with light traps and human landing catches (HLC) was carried out during a 7- to 14-day period after each round of MDA, and then monthly until the end of the year. The mosquitocidal effect of IVM was determined by direct membrane feeding assays. RESULTS: Of the 15,017 mosquitoes collected during the study period, 99.65% (n = 14,965) were Anopheles gambiae sensu lato (An. gambiae s.l.), comprising Anopheles arabiensis (56.2%), Anopheles coluzzii (24.5%), Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto (An. gembiae s.s.; 16.0%) and Anopheles funestus sensu lato (An. funestus s.l.; 0.35%). No effect of the intervention on vector parity was observed. Vector density determined on light trap collections was significantly lower in the intervention villages in 2019 (adjusted incidence rate ratio: 0.39; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.20, 0.74; P = 0.005) but not in 2018. However, vector density determined in HLC collections was similar in both the intervention and control villages. The entomological inoculation rate was significantly lower in the intervention villages than in the control villages (odds ratio: 0.36, 95% CI: 0.19, 0.70; P = 0·003). Mosquito mortality was significantly higher when blood fed on IVM-treated individuals up to 21 days post-treatment, particularly in adults and individuals with a higher body mass index. CONCLUSION: Mass drug administration with IVM decreased vector density and the entomological inoculation rate while the effect on vector parity was less clear. Survival of mosquitoes fed on blood collected from IVM-treated individuals was significantly lower than that in mosquitoes which fed on controls. The influence of host characteristics on mosquito survivorship indicated that dose optimization could improve IVM efficacy. Future detailed entomological evaluation trials in which IVM is administered as stand-alone intervention may elucidate the contribution of this drug to the observed reduction in transmission.

Assessing the impact of a novel house design on the incidence of malaria in children in rural Africa: study protocol for a household-cluster randomized controlled superiority trial.

BACKGROUND: Traditional rural housing in hot, humid regions of sub-Saharan Africa usually consists of single-level, poorly ventilated dwellings. Houses are mostly poorly screened against malaria mosquitoes and limited airflow discourages the use of bednets resulting in high indoor transmission. This study aims to determine whether living in a novel design house with elevated bedrooms and permeable screened walls reduces malaria, respiratory tract infections, and diarrhoea among children in rural Tanzania. METHODS/STUDY DESIGN: This is a household-randomized, controlled study in 60 villages in Mtwara, Tanzania. A total of 550 households are randomly selected, 110 of which are allocated a novel design house and 440 households continue to reside in traditional houses. A dynamic cohort of about 1650 children under 13 years will be enrolled and followed for 3 years, approximately 330 living in novel design houses and 1320 in traditional rural houses. The primary endpoint is the incidence of malaria; secondary endpoints are incidences of acute respiratory tract infections and diarrhoea diseases detected by passive and active surveillance. Exposure to malaria vectors will be assessed using light traps in all study houses. Structural, economic, and social science studies will assess the durability, cost-effectiveness, and acceptability of the new houses compared with traditional housing. Environmental data will be collected indoors and outdoors in study homes to assess the differences between house typologies. DISCUSSION: This is the first randomized controlled trial to assess the protective efficacy of a new house design targeting malaria in sub-Saharan Africa. The findings of this study could influence the future construction of homes in hot and humid zones of Africa. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04529434 . Registered on August 27, 2020.

Risk factors associated with house entry of malaria vectors in an area of Burkina Faso with high, persistent malaria transmission and high insecticide resistance.

BACKGROUND: In rural Burkina Faso, the primary malaria vector Anopheles gambiae sensu lato (s.l.) primarily feeds indoors at night. Identification of factors which influence mosquito house entry could lead to development of novel malaria vector control interventions. A study was therefore carried out to identify risk factors associated with house entry of An. gambiae s.l. in south-west Burkina Faso, an area of high insecticide resistance. METHODS: Mosquitoes were sampled monthly during the malaria transmission season using CDC light traps in 252 houses from 10 villages, each house sleeping at least one child aged five to 15 years old. Potential risk factors for house entry of An. gambiae s.l. were measured, including socio-economic status, caregiver's education and occupation, number of people sleeping in the same part of the house as the child, use of anti-mosquito measures, house construction and fittings, proximity of anopheline aquatic habitats and presence of animals near the house. Mosquito counts were compared using a generalized linear mixed-effect model with negative binomial and log link function, adjusting for repeated collections. RESULTS: 20,929 mosquitoes were caught, of which 16,270 (77.7%) were An. gambiae s.l. Of the 6691 An. gambiae s.l. identified to species, 4101 (61.3%) were An. gambiae sensu stricto and 2590 (38.7%) Anopheles coluzzii. Having a metal-roof on the child's sleeping space (IRR = 0.55, 95% CI 0.32-0.95, p = 0.03) was associated with fewer malaria vectors inside the home. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrated that the rate of An. gambiae s.l. was 45% lower in sleeping spaces with a metal roof, compared to those with thatch roofs. Improvements in house construction, including installation of metal roofs, should be considered in endemic areas of Africa to reduce the burden of malaria.

Estimating intervention effectiveness in trials of malaria interventions with contamination.

BACKGROUND: In cluster randomized trials (CRTs) or stepped wedge cluster randomized trials (SWCRTs) of malaria interventions, mosquito movement leads to contamination between trial arms unless buffer zones separate the clusters. Contamination can be accounted for in the analysis, yielding an estimate of the contamination range, the distance over which contamination measurably biases the effectiveness. METHODS: A previously described analysis for CRTs is extended to SWCRTs and estimates of effectiveness are provided as a function of intervention coverage. The methods are applied to two SWCRTs of malaria interventions, the SolarMal trial on the impact of mass trapping of mosquitoes with odor-baited traps and the AvecNet trial on the effect of adding pyriproxyfen to long-lasting insecticidal nets. RESULTS: For the SolarMal trial, the contamination range was estimated to be 146 m ([Formula: see text] credible interval [Formula: see text] km), together with a [Formula: see text] ([Formula: see text] credible interval [Formula: see text]) reduction of Plasmodium infection, compared to the [Formula: see text] reduction estimated without accounting for contamination. The estimated effectiveness had an approximately linear relationship with coverage. For the AvecNet trial, estimated contamination effects were minimal, with insufficient data from the cluster boundary regions to estimate the effectiveness as a function of coverage. CONCLUSIONS: The contamination range in these trials of malaria interventions is much less than the distances Anopheles mosquitoes can fly. An appropriate analysis makes buffer zones unnecessary, enabling the design of more cost-efficient trials. Estimation of the contamination range requires information from the cluster boundary regions and trials should be designed to collect this.

Risk factors for Plasmodium falciparum infection in pregnant women in Burkina Faso: a community-based cross-sectional survey.

BACKGROUND: Malaria in pregnancy remains a public health problem in sub-Saharan Africa. Identifying risk factors for malaria in pregnancy could assist in developing interventions to reduce the risk of malaria in Burkina Faso and other countries in the region. METHODS: Two cross-sectional surveys were carried out to measure Plasmodium falciparum infection using microscopy in pregnant women in Saponé Health District, central Burkina Faso. Data were collected on individual, household and environmental variables and their association with P. falciparum infection assessed using multivariable analysis. RESULTS: A total of 356 pregnant women were enrolled in the surveys, 174 during the dry season and 182 during the wet season. The mean number of doses of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine for Intermittent Preventive Treatment in pregnancy (IPTp-SP) was 0.4 doses during the first trimester, 1.1 doses at the second and 2.3 doses at the third. Overall prevalence of P. falciparum infection by microscopy was 15.7%; 17.8% in the dry season and 13.7% in the wet season. 88.2% of pregnant women reported sleeping under an insecticide-treated net (ITN) on the previous night. The odds of P. falciparum infection was 65% lower in women who reported using an ITN compared to those that did not use an ITN (Odds ratio, OR = 0.35, 95% CI 0.14-0.86, p = 0.02). IPTp-SP was also associated with reduced P. falciparum infection, with each additional dose of IPTp-SP reducing the odds of infection by 44% (OR = 0.56, 95% CI 0.39-0.79, p = 0.001). Literate women had a 2.54 times higher odds of P. falciparum infection compared to illiterate women (95% CI 1.31-4.91, p = 0.006). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of P. falciparum infection among pregnant women remains high in Burkina Faso, although use of IPTp-SP and ITNs were found to reduce the odds of infection. Despite this, compliance with IPTp-SP remains far from that recommended by the National Malaria Control Programme and World Health Organization. Behaviour change communication should be strengthened to encourage compliance with protective malaria control tools during pregnancy.

Pyriproxyfen-treated bed nets reduce reproductive fitness and longevity of pyrethroid-resistant Anopheles gambiae under laboratory and field conditions.

BACKGROUND: The efficacy of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) containing the insect growth regulator pyriproxyfen (PPF) and pyrethroid insecticides (PPF-ITNs) is being assessed in clinical trials to determine whether they provide greater protection from malaria than standard pyrethroid-treated ITNs in areas where mosquitoes are resistant to pyrethroids. Understanding the entomological mode of action of this new ITN class will aide interpretation of the results from these trials. METHODS: Anopheles gambiae sensu lato (s.l.) mosquitoes from a susceptible laboratory strain were exposed to PPF-treated netting 24 h, 6 h, and immediately prior to, or 24 h post blood feeding, and the impact on fecundity, fertility and longevity recorded. Pyrethroid-resistant populations were exposed to nets containing permethrin and PPF (PPF-ITNs) in cone bioassays and daily mortality recorded. Mosquitoes were also collected from inside houses pre- and post-distribution of PPF-ITNs in a clinical trial conduced in Burkina Faso; female An. gambiae s.l. were then assessed for fecundity and fertility. RESULTS: PPF exposure reduced the median adult lifespan of insecticide-susceptible mosquitoes by 4 to 5 days in all exposure times (p < 0.05) other than 6 h pre-blood meal and resulted in almost complete lifelong sterilization. The longevity of pyrethroid-resistant mosquitoes was also reduced by at least 5 days after exposure to PPF-ITNs compared to untreated nets, but was unaffected by exposure to standard pyrethroid only ITNs. A total of 386 blood-fed or gravid An. gambiae s.l. females were collected from five villages between 1 and 12 months before distribution of PPF-ITNs. Of these mosquitoes, 75% laid eggs and the remaining 25% appeared to have normal ovaries upon dissection. In contrast, only 8.6% of the 631 blood-fed or gravid An. gambiae s.l. collected post PPF-ITN distribution successfully oviposited; 276 (43.7%) did not oviposit but had apparently normal ovaries upon dissection, and 301 (47.7%) did not oviposit and had abnormal eggs upon dissection. Egg numbers were also significantly lower (average of 138/female prior distribution vs 85 post distribution, p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: Exposure to a mixture of PPF and pyrethroids on netting shortens the lifespan of mosquitoes and reduces reproductive output. Sterilization of vectors lasted at least one year under operational conditions. These findings suggest a longer effective lifespan of PPF-pyrethroid nets than reported previously.

Impact of seasonality and malaria control interventions on Anopheles density and species composition from three areas of Uganda with differing malaria endemicity.

BACKGROUND: Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS) are the malaria control interventions primarily responsible for reductions in transmission intensity across sub-Saharan Africa. These interventions, however, may have differential impact on Anopheles species composition and density. This study examined the changing pattern of Anopheles species in three areas of Uganda with markedly different transmission intensities and different levels of vector control. METHODS: From October 2011 to June 2016 mosquitoes were collected monthly using CDC light traps from 100 randomly selected households in three areas: Walukuba (low transmission), Kihihi (moderate transmission) and Nagongera (high transmission). LLINs were distributed in November 2013 in Walukuba and Nagongera and in June 2014 in Kihihi. IRS was implemented only in Nagongera, with three rounds of bendiocarb delivered between December 2014 and June 2015. Mosquito species were identified morphologically and by PCR (Polymerase Chain Reaction). RESULTS: In Walukuba, LLIN distribution was associated with a decline in Anopheles funestus vector density (0.07 vs 0.02 mosquitoes per house per night, density ratio [DR] 0.34, 95% CI: 0.18-0.65, p = 0.001), but not Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto (s.s.) nor Anopheles arabiensis. In Kihihi, over 98% of mosquitoes were An. gambiae s.s. and LLIN distribution was associated with a decline in An. gambiae s.s. vector density (4.00 vs 2.46, DR 0.68, 95% CI: 0.49-0.94, p = 0.02). In Nagongera, the combination of LLINs and multiple rounds of IRS was associated with almost complete elimination of An. gambiae s.s. (28.0 vs 0.17, DR 0.004, 95% CI: 0.002-0.009, p < 0.001), and An. funestus sensu lato (s.l.) (3.90 vs 0.006, DR 0.001, 95% CI: 0.0005-0.004, p < 0.001), with a less pronounced decline in An. arabiensis (9.18 vs 2.00, DR 0.15 95% CI: 0.07-0.33, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: LLIN distribution was associated with reductions in An. funestus s.l. in the lowest transmission site and An. gambiae s.s. in the moderate transmission site. In the highest transmission site, a combination of LLINs and multiple rounds of IRS was associated with the near collapse of An. gambiae s.s. and An. funestus s.l. Following IRS, An. arabiensis, a behaviourally resilient vector, became the predominant species, which may have implications for malaria vector control activities. Development of interventions targeted at outdoor biting remains a priority.

A New Test of a Theory about Old Mosquitoes.

In vector control, it is widely accepted that killing adult mosquitoes would sharply reduce the proportion of old mosquitoes and cause the greatest changes to malaria transmission. The principle is based on a mathematical model of the sporozoite rate (the proportion of infective mosquitoes) that emphasized changes in mosquito age. Killing adult mosquitoes also reduces mosquito population densities, which are directly proportional to human biting rates (the number of bites, per person, per day). Eect sizes of vector control can be compared using sporozoite rates and human biting rates, which are commonly measured. We argue that human biting rates convey more use- ful information for planning, monitoring and evaluating vector control, and operational research should focus on understanding mosquito ecology.

Recommendations for building out mosquito-transmitted diseases in sub-Saharan Africa: the DELIVER mnemonic.

In sub-Saharan Africa, most transmission of mosquito-transmitted diseases, such as malaria or dengue, occurs within or around houses. Preventing mosquito house entry and reducing mosquito production around the home would help reduce the transmission of these diseases. Based on recent research, we make key recommendations for reducing the threat of mosquito-transmitted diseases through changes to the built environment. The mnemonic, DELIVER, recommends the following best practices: (i) Doors should be screened, self-closing and without surrounding gaps; (ii) Eaves, the space between the wall and roof, should be closed or screened; (iii) houses should be Lifted above the ground; (iv) Insecticide-treated nets should be used when sleeping in houses at night; (v) houses should be Ventilated, with at least two large-screened windows to facilitate airflow; (vi) Environmental management should be conducted regularly inside and around the home; and (vii) Roofs should be solid, rather than thatch. DELIVER is a package of interventions to be used in combination for maximum impact. Simple changes to the built environment will reduce exposure to mosquito-transmitted diseases and help keep regions free from these diseases after elimination. This article is part of the theme issue 'Novel control strategies for mosquito-borne diseases'.

Mass Drug Administration With High-Dose Ivermectin and Dihydroartemisinin-Piperaquine for Malaria Elimination in an Area of Low Transmission With High Coverage of Malaria Control Interventions: Protocol for the MASSIV Cluster Randomized Clinical Trial.

BACKGROUND: With a decline in malaria burden, innovative interventions and tools are required to reduce malaria transmission further. Mass drug administration (MDA) of artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) has been identified as a potential tool to further reduce malaria transmission, where coverage of vector control interventions is already high. However, the impact is limited in time. Combining an ACT with an endectocide treatment that is able to reduce vector survival, such as ivermectin (IVM), could increase the impact of MDA and offer a new tool to reduce malaria transmission. OBJECTIVE: The study objective is to evaluate the impact of MDA with IVM plus dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) on malaria transmission in an area with high coverage of malaria control interventions. METHODS: The study is a cluster randomized trial in the Upper River Region of The Gambia and included 32 villages (16 control and 16 intervention). A buffer zone of ~2 km was created around all intervention clusters. MDA with IVM plus DP was implemented in all intervention villages and the buffer zones; control villages received standard malaria interventions according to the Gambian National Malaria Control Program plans. RESULTS: The MDA campaigns were carried out from August to October 2018 for the first year and from July to September 2019 for the second year. Statistical analysis will commence once the database is completed, cleaned, and locked. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first cluster randomized clinical trial of MDA with IVM plus DP. The results will provide evidence on the impact of MDA with IVM plus DP on malaria transmission. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03576313; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03576313. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): DERR1-10.2196/20904.

A cohort study to identify risk factors for Plasmodium falciparum infection in Burkinabe children: implications for other high burden high impact countries.

BACKGROUND: Progress in controlling malaria has stalled in recent years. Today the malaria burden is increasingly concentrated in a few countries, including Burkina Faso, where malaria is not declining. A cohort study was conducted to identify risk factors for malaria infection in children in southwest Burkina Faso, an area with high insecticide-treated net (ITN) coverage and insecticide-resistant vectors. METHODS: Incidence of Plasmodium falciparum infection was measured in 252 children aged 5 to 15 years, using active and passive detection, during the 2017 transmission season, following clearance of infection. Demographic, socio-economic, environmental, and entomological risk factors, including use of ITNs and insecticide resistance were monitored. RESULTS: During the six-month follow-up period, the overall incidence of P. falciparum infection was 2.78 episodes per child (95% CI = 2.66-2.91) by microscopy, and 3.11 (95% CI = 2.95-3.28) by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). The entomological inoculation rate (EIR) was 80.4 infective bites per child over the six-month malaria transmission season. At baseline, 80.6% of children were reported as sleeping under an ITN the previous night, although at the last survey, 23.3% of nets were in poor condition and considered no longer protective. No association was found between the rate of P. falciparum infection and either EIR (incidence rate ratio (IRR): 1.00, 95% CI: 1.00-1.00, p = 0.08) or mortality in WHO tube tests when vectors were exposed to 0.05% deltamethrin (IRR: 1.05, 95% CI: 0.73-1.50, p = 0.79). Travel history (IRR: 1.52, 95% CI: 1.45-1.59, p < 0.001) and higher socio-economic status were associated with an increased risk of P. falciparum infection (IRR: 1.05, 95% CI: 1.00-1.11, p = 0.04). CONCLUSIONS: Incidence of P. falciparum infection remains overwhelmingly high in the study area. The study findings suggest that because of the exceptionally high levels of malaria transmission in the study area, malaria elimination cannot be achieved solely by mass deployment of ITNs and additional control measures are needed.

Evidence of high bed net usage from a list randomization experiments in rural Gambia.

BACKGROUND: Recording behaviours that have the potential to impact health can be doubly challenging if the behaviour takes place in private spaces that cannot be observed directly, and where respondents answer what they think the recorder may want to hear. Sleeping under a long-lasting insecticidal net (LLIN) is an important intervention for malaria prevention, yet it is difficult to gauge the extent to which coverage (how many nets are in the community) differs from usage (how many people actually sleep under a net). List randomization, a novel method which partially obscures respondents' answers to sensitive questions, was employed to estimate LLIN usage in The Gambia. METHODS: 802 heads-of-household from 15 villages were recruited into a randomized controlled trial assessing the effect of a housing intervention on malaria. These houses were randomly assigned to a housing intervention versus control, with stratification by village so as to ensure balance between arms. From these, 125 households (63 intervention, 52 control) were randomly selected for participation in the list randomization experiment, along with 68 households from the same villages but which were not part of the housing improvement study, resulting in a total of 196 households for the list randomization experiment. Approximately half (n = 97) of the 196 study participants were randomly assigned to the control group and received a four-question list about non-sensitive behaviours; the intervention group (n = 99) received the same list, with the addition of one question on a sensitive behaviour: whether or not they had used a bed net the previous night. Participants were read the list of questions and then said how many of the statements were true. Bed net usage was estimated by calculating the difference in means between the number of affirmative responses between the two groups. RESULTS: The mean number of affirmative responses in the control group was 2.60 of four statements (95% confidence interval, 95% CI 2.50-2.70), compared with 3.68 (95% CI 3.59-3.78) in the intervention group. Such difference (1.08; 95% CI 94.9-100%) suggests near universal bed net usage. CONCLUSIONS: Bed net usage by household heads in these rural villages was found to be high. Though not entirely unexpected given other studies' estimates of high bed net usage in the area, the list randomization method should be further validated in an area with lower coverage.

Vector bionomics and vectorial capacity as emergent properties of mosquito behaviors and ecology.

Mosquitoes are important vectors for pathogens that infect humans and other vertebrate animals. Some aspects of adult mosquito behavior and mosquito ecology play an important role in determining the capacity of vector populations to transmit pathogens. Here, we re-examine factors affecting the transmission of pathogens by mosquitoes using a new approach. Unlike most previous models, this framework considers the behavioral states and state transitions of adult mosquitoes through a sequence of activity bouts. We developed a new framework for individual-based simulation models called MBITES (Mosquito Bout-based and Individual-based Transmission Ecology Simulator). In MBITES, it is possible to build models that simulate the behavior and ecology of adult mosquitoes in exquisite detail on complex resource landscapes generated by spatial point processes. We also developed an ordinary differential equation model which is the Kolmogorov forward equations for models developed in MBITES under a specific set of simplifying assumptions. While mosquito infection and pathogen development are one possible part of a mosquito's state, that is not our main focus. Using extensive simulation using some models developed in MBITES, we show that vectorial capacity can be understood as an emergent property of simple behavioral algorithms interacting with complex resource landscapes, and that relative density or sparsity of resources and the need to search can have profound consequences for mosquito populations' capacity to transmit pathogens.

Pareto rules for malaria super-spreaders and super-spreading.

Heterogeneity in transmission is a challenge for infectious disease dynamics and control. An 80-20 "Pareto" rule has been proposed to describe this heterogeneity whereby 80% of transmission is accounted for by 20% of individuals, herein called super-spreaders. It is unclear, however, whether super-spreading can be attributed to certain individuals or whether it is an unpredictable and unavoidable feature of epidemics. Here, we investigate heterogeneous malaria transmission at three sites in Uganda and find that super-spreading is negatively correlated with overall malaria transmission intensity. Mosquito biting among humans is 90-10 at the lowest transmission intensities declining to less than 70-30 at the highest intensities. For super-spreaders, biting ranges from 70-30 down to 60-40. The difference, approximately half the total variance, is due to environmental stochasticity. Super-spreading is thus partly due to super-spreaders, but modest gains are expected from targeting super-spreaders.