Panarchy theory for convergence.

Coping with surprise and uncertainty resulting from the emergence of undesired and unexpected novelty or the sudden reorganization of systems at multiple spatiotemporal scales requires both a scientific process that can incorporate diverse expertise and viewpoints, and a scientific framework that can account for the structure and dynamics of interacting social-ecological systems (SES) and the inherent uncertainty of what might emerge in the future. We argue that combining a convergence scientific process with a panarchy framework provides a pathway for improving our understanding of, and response to, emergence. Emergent phenomena are often unexpected (e.g., pandemics, regime shifts) and can be highly disruptive, so can pose a significant challenge to the development of sustainable and resilient SES. Convergence science is a new approach promoted by the U.S. National Science Foundation for tackling complex problems confronting humanity through the integration of multiple perspectives, expertise, methods, tools, and analytical approaches. Panarchy theory is a framework useful for studying emergence, because it characterizes complex systems of people and nature as dynamically organized and structured within and across scales of space and time. It accounts for the fundamental tenets of complex systems and explicitly grapples with emergence, including the emergence of novelty, and the emergent property of social-ecological resilience. We provide an overview of panarchy, convergence science, and emergence. We discuss the significant data and methodological challenges of using panarchy in a convergence approach to address emergent phenomena, as well as state-of-the-art methods for overcoming them. We present two examples that would benefit from such an approach: climate change and its impacts on social-ecological systems, and the relationships between infectious disease and social-ecological systems.

Mapping Heat Vulnerability Index Based on Different Urbanization Levels in Nebraska, USA.

Heatwaves cause excess mortality and physiological impacts on humans throughout the world, and climate change will intensify and increase the frequency of heat events. Many adaptation and mitigation studies use spatial distribution of highly vulnerable local populations to inform heat reduction and response plans. However, most available heat vulnerability studies focus on urban areas with high heat intensification by Urban Heat Islands (UHIs). Rural areas encompass different environmental and socioeconomic issues that require alternate analyses of vulnerability. We categorized Nebraska census tracts into four urbanization levels, then conducted factor analyses on each group and captured different patterns of socioeconomic vulnerabilities among resultant Heat Vulnerability Indices (HVIs). While disability is the major component of HVI in two urbanized classes, lower education, and races other than white have higher contributions in HVI for the two rural classes. To account for environmental vulnerability of HVI, we considered different land type combinations for each urban class based on their percentage areas and their differences in heat intensifications. Our results demonstrate different combinations of initial variables in heat vulnerability among urban classes of Nebraska and clustering of high and low heat vulnerable areas within the highest urbanized sections. Less urbanized areas show no spatial clustering of HVI. More studies with separation on urbanization level of residence can give insights into different socioeconomic vulnerability patterns in rural and urban areas, while also identifying changes in environmental variables that better capture heat intensification in rural settings.

Influence of Land Cover and Soil Moisture based Brown Ocean Effect on an Extreme Rainfall Event from a Louisiana Gulf Coast Tropical System.

Extreme flooding over southern Louisiana in mid-August of 2016 resulted from an unusual tropical low that formed and intensified over land. We used numerical experiments to highlight the role of the 'Brown Ocean' effect (where saturated soils function similar to a warm ocean surface) on intensification and it's modulation by land cover change. A numerical modeling experiment that successfully captured the flood event (control) was modified to alter moisture availability by converting wetlands to open water, wet croplands, and dry croplands. Storm evolution in the control experiment with wet antecedent soils most resembles tropical lows that form and intensify over oceans. Irrespective of soil moisture conditions, conversion of wetlands to croplands reduced storm intensity, and also, non-saturated soils reduced rain by 20% and caused shorter durations of high intensity wind conditions. Developing agricultural croplands and more so restoring wetlands and not converting them into open water can impede intensification of tropical systems that affect the area.

Droughts of the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries: Influences on the production of beef and forage in Kentucky, USA.

Drought affects societies world-wide in many different ways. It is a natural hazard that is complex and not well understood and as a result, its impacts are often poorly documented. The purpose of this research is to quantify (in dollars) the impacts of drought on Kentucky's beef and forage (hay) production. Observations suggest that the most important droughts in Kentucky occurred in 1930-31, 1940-42, 1952-55, 1987-88, 1999-2000 and 2007. The total state revenue for these commodities were analyzed during these severe drought years and non-drought years. The research estimated revenue deficit from these severe droughts in Kentucky for these (beef and hay) agricultural commodities. This study is important to the general public as well as planners and policy makers. Proper documentation of drought impacts should help identify drought vulnerabilities and result in better risk management and mitigation.

Twentieth century droughts and agriculture: Examples from impacts on soybean production in Kentucky, USA.

Drought is a significant natural hazard that slowly evolves over time. Because of its character, drought is difficult to monitor and impacts are often poorly documented. Agriculture is one of the most sensitive sectors that are prone to drought. The objective of this research is to assess the impacts of drought on soybean production and revenue in Kentucky. Soybeans are one of Kentucky's most important commodities. In this study, impacts of 1930-1931, 1940-1942, 1952-1955, 1987-1988, 1999-2000, and 2007 droughts were considered. It was found that over the recent years, up to 56 % of the revenue from soybeans was lost due to drought. During the first half of the twentieth century, revenue loss reached up to 77 %. This research is valuable to the general public as well as planners and policy makers. Proper documentation of impacts of past droughts will help identify drought vulnerabilities and results in better risk management and mitigation.

Equilibrium sampling used to monitor malodors in a Swine waste lagoon.

The concentrations of malodorous compounds in a 0.4-ha anaerobic lagoon that received waste from approximately 2000 sows were monitored during the late summer to late fall of 2006 to gain insight into the factors influencing their concentrations. Selected malodorous compounds were measured by the use of equilibrium samplers consisting of submersible stir plates and stir bar sorbtive sampling with polydimethylsiloxane-coated magnetic stir bars. During the same period, air and water temperatures, suspended solids, total organic carbon and nitrogen content, and wastewater pH were recorded. Concentrations of malodorous compounds were higher at the surface of the lagoon than at the middle or bottom of the lagoon. Skatole concentration, for instance, averaged 54, 24, and 38 microg L(-1) near the surface, in the middle, and at the lowest sampling depths, respectively. While the lagoon was being pumped down during field application of wastewater, concentrations of malodorous compounds fluctuated widely, increased 16-fold as compared with the sampling period before pumping, and continued to increase as fall progressed and temperatures cooled. Suspended solids, volatile suspended solids, and total organic carbon increased near the bottom of the lagoon during this same period. The increases in the concentrations of malodorous compounds in the wastewater during the fall could have been due to a combination of several factors. These factors include reduced degradation by lagoon bacteria, less wind stripping of volatile compounds from the lagoon surface due to lowering of the lagoon surface after crop application, and/or reduced evaporation of malodorous compounds due to falling temperatures.