Modeling of Parkinson's Disease Progression and Implications for Detection of Disease Modification in Treatment Trials.

Background: Objectively measuring Parkinson's disease (PD) signs and symptoms over time is critical for the successful development of treatments aimed at halting the disease progression of people with PD. Objective: To create a clinical trial simulation tool that characterizes the natural history of PD progression and enables a data-driven design of randomized controlled studies testing potential disease-modifying treatments (DMT) in early-stage PD. Methods: Data from the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative (PPMI) were analyzed with nonlinear mixed-effect modeling techniques to characterize the progression of MDS-UPDRS part I (non-motor aspects of experiences of daily living), part II (motor aspects of experiences of daily living), and part III (motor signs). A clinical trial simulation tool was built from these disease models and used to predict probability of success as a function of trial design. Results: MDS-UPDRS part III progresses approximately 3 times faster than MDS-UPDRS part II and I, with an increase of 3 versus 1 points/year. Higher amounts of symptomatic therapy is associated with slower progression of MDS-UPDRS part II and III. The modeling framework predicts that a DMT effect on MDS-UPDRS part III could precede effect on part II by approximately 2 to 3 years. Conclusions: Our clinical trial simulation tool predicted that in a two-year randomized controlled trial, MDS-UPDRS part III could be used to evaluate a potential novel DMT, while part II would require longer trials of a minimum duration of 3 to 5 years underscoring the need for innovative trial design approaches including novel patient-centric measures.

To develop effective medicines that can slow down or stop the progression of Parkinson's disease (PD), it is important to accurately understand how the disease worsens over time. We used data from an observational study, led by the Michael J. Fox Foundation, called the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative (PPMI) to understand the natural progression of  PD. We simulated clinical trials on a computer using different scales to measure the progression of PD. We specifically looked at a physician-reported measure MDS-UPDRS part III, and at a patient-reported measure MDS-UPDRS part II of how PD symptoms worsen over time. To measure the effect of a new medicine slowing down the progression of PD using patient-reported measure MDS-UPDRS part II, we estimate that we may need to conduct a clinical trial of at least 3 to 5 years. On the other hand, to measure an effect using physician-reported measure MDS-UPDRS part III, the duration of the trial could be shorter than 2 years. We were also able to show that worsening recorded by the physician-reported measure MDS-UPDRS part III could be predictive of a later worsening recorded by the patient-reported measure MDS-UPDRS part II. We concluded that MDS-UPDRS part III may be a good endpoint for a clinical trial of a reasonable duration and that MDS-UPDRS part II could be measured in longer studies, for example, open-label extensions.

Occupational Pesticide Exposure in Parkinson's Disease Related to GBA and LRRK2 Variants.

Background: The penetrance of common genetic risk variants for Parkinson's disease (PD) is low. Pesticide exposure increases PD risk, but how exposure affects penetrance is not well understood. Objective: To determine the relationship between occupational pesticide exposure and PD in people with LRRK2 and GBA risk variants. Methods: Participants of the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative (PPMI) with a LRRK2-G2019 S or GBA risk variant provided information about occupational pesticide exposure. We compared exposure in carriers with and without PD. Among carriers with PD, we used Cox proportional hazard models to compare time-to impairment in balance, cognition, and activities of daily living (ADLs) between participants with and without prior occupational pesticide exposure. Results: 378 participants with a risk variant provided exposure information; 176 with LRRK2-G2019 S (54 with and 122 without PD) and 202 with GBA variants (47 with and 155 without PD). Twenty-six participants reported pesticide exposure. People with a GBA variant and occupational pesticide exposure had much higher odds of PD (aOR: 5.4, 95% CI 1.7-18.5, p < 0.01). People with a LRRK2 variant and a history of occupational pesticide exposure had non-significantly elevated odds of PD (aOR 1.3, 95% CI 0.4-4.6, p = 0.7). Among those with PD, pesticide exposure was associated with a higher risk of balance problems and cognitive impairment in LRRK2-PD and functional impairment in GBA-PD, although associations were not statistically significant. Conclusions: Occupational pesticide exposure may increase penetrance of GBA-PD and may be associated with faster symptom progression. Further studies in larger cohorts are necessary.

Prasinezumab slows motor progression in rapidly progressing early-stage Parkinson's disease.

Prasinezumab, a monoclonal antibody that binds aggregated α-synuclein, is being investigated as a potential disease-modifying therapy in early-stage Parkinson's disease. Although in the PASADENA phase 2 study, the primary endpoint (Movement Disorder Society Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (MDS-UPDRS) sum of Parts I + II + III) was not met, prasinezumab-treated individuals exhibited slower progression of motor signs than placebo-treated participants (MDS-UPDRS Part III). We report here an exploratory analysis assessing whether prasinezumab showed greater benefits on motor signs progression in prespecified subgroups with faster motor progression. Prasinezumab's potential effects on disease progression were assessed in four prespecified and six exploratory subpopulations of PASADENA: use of monoamine oxidase B inhibitors at baseline (yes versus no); Hoehn and Yahr stage (2 versus 1); rapid eye movement sleep behavior disorder (yes versus no); data-driven subphenotypes (diffuse malignant versus nondiffuse malignant); age at baseline (≥60 years versus <60 years); sex (male versus female); disease duration (>12 months versus <12 months); age at diagnosis (≥60 years versus <60 years); motor subphenotypes (akinetic-rigid versus tremor-dominant); and motor subphenotypes (postural instability gait dysfunction versus tremor-dominant). In these subpopulations, the effect of prasinezumab on slowing motor signs progression (MDS-UPDRS Part III) was greater in the rapidly progressing subpopulations (for example, participants who were diffuse malignant or taking monoamine oxidase B inhibitors at baseline). This exploratory analysis suggests that, in a trial of 1-year duration, prasinezumab might reduce motor progression to a greater extent in individuals with more rapidly progressing Parkinson's disease. However, because this was a post hoc analysis, additional randomized clinical trials are needed to validate these findings.

Evaluation of ATNPD Framework and Biofluid Markers to Predict Cognitive Decline in Early Parkinson Disease.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: In Parkinson disease (PD), Alzheimer disease (AD) copathology is common and clinically relevant. However, the longitudinal progression of AD CSF biomarkers-ß-amyloid 1-42 (Aß42), phosphorylated tau 181 (p-tau181), and total tau (t-tau)-in PD is poorly understood and may be distinct from clinical AD. Moreover, it is unclear whether CSF p-tau181 and serum neurofilament light (NfL) have added prognostic utility in PD, when combined with CSF Aß42. First, we describe longitudinal trajectories of biofluid markers in PD. Second, we modified the AD ß-amyloid/tau/neurodegeneration (ATN) framework for application in PD (ATNPD) using CSF Aß42 (A), p-tau181 (T), and serum NfL (N) and tested ATNPD prediction of longitudinal cognitive decline in PD. METHODS: Participants were selected from the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative cohort, clinically diagnosed with sporadic PD or as controls, and followed up annually for 5 years. Linear mixed-effects models (LMEMs) tested the interaction of diagnosis with longitudinal trajectories of analytes (log transformed, false discovery rate [FDR] corrected). In patients with PD, LMEMs tested how baseline ATNPD status (AD [A+T+N±] vs not) predicted clinical outcomes, including Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA; rank transformed, FDR corrected). RESULTS: Participants were 364 patients with PD and 168 controls, with comparable baseline mean (±SD) age (patients with PD = 62 ± 10 years; controls = 61 ± 11 years]; Mann-Whitney Wilcoxon: p = 0.4) and sex distribution (patients with PD = 231 male individuals [63%]; controls = 107 male individuals [64%]; χ2: p = 1). Patients with PD had overall lower CSF p-tau181 (ß = -0.16, 95% CI -0.23 to -0.092, p = 2.2e-05) and t-tau than controls (ß = -0.13, 95% CI -0.19 to -0.065, p = 4e-04), but not Aß42 (p = 0.061) or NfL (p = 0.32). Over time, patients with PD had greater increases in serum NfL than controls (ß = 0.035, 95% CI 0.022 to 0.048, p = 9.8e-07); slopes of patients with PD did not differ from those of controls for CSF Aß42 (p = 0.18), p-tau181 (p = 1), or t-tau (p = 0.96). Using ATNPD, PD classified as A+T+N± (n = 32; 9%) had worse cognitive decline on global MoCA (ß = -73, 95% CI -110 to -37, p = 0.00077) than all other ATNPD statuses including A+ alone (A+T-N-; n = 75; 21%). DISCUSSION: In patients with early PD, CSF p-tau181 and t-tau were low compared with those in controls and did not increase over 5 years of follow-up. Our study shows that classification using modified ATNPD (incorporating CSF Aß42, CSF p-tau181, and serum NfL) can identify biologically relevant subgroups of PD to improve prediction of cognitive decline in early PD.

A biological definition of neuronal α-synuclein disease: towards an integrated staging system for research.

Parkinson's disease and dementia with Lewy bodies are currently defined by their clinical features, with α-synuclein pathology as the gold standard to establish the definitive diagnosis. We propose that, given biomarker advances enabling accurate detection of pathological α-synuclein (ie, misfolded and aggregated) in CSF using the seed amplification assay, it is time to redefine Parkinson's disease and dementia with Lewy bodies as neuronal α-synuclein disease rather than as clinical syndromes. This major shift from a clinical to a biological definition of Parkinson's disease and dementia with Lewy bodies takes advantage of the availability of tools to assess the gold standard for diagnosis of neuronal α-synuclein (n-αsyn) in human beings during life. Neuronal α-synuclein disease is defined by the presence of pathological n-αsyn species detected in vivo (S; the first biological anchor) regardless of the presence of any specific clinical syndrome. On the basis of this definition, we propose that individuals with pathological n-αsyn aggregates are at risk for dopaminergic neuronal dysfunction (D; the second biological anchor). Our biological definition establishes a staging system, the neuronal α-synuclein disease integrated staging system (NSD-ISS), rooted in the biological anchors (S and D) and the degree of functional impairment caused by clinical signs or symptoms. Stages 0-1 occur without signs or symptoms and are defined by the presence of pathogenic variants in the SNCA gene (stage 0), S alone (stage 1A), or S and D (stage 1B). The presence of clinical manifestations marks the transition to stage 2 and beyond. Stage 2 is characterised by subtle signs or symptoms but without functional impairment. Stages 2B-6 require both S and D and stage-specific increases in functional impairment. A biological definition of neuronal α-synuclein disease and an NSD-ISS research framework are essential to enable interventional trials at early disease stages. The NSD-ISS will evolve to include the incorporation of data-driven definitions of stage-specific functional anchors and additional biomarkers as they emerge and are validated. Presently, the NSD-ISS is intended for research use only; its application in the clinical setting is premature and inappropriate.

Flortaucipir tau PET findings from former professional and college American football players in the DIAGNOSE CTE research project.

INTRODUCTION: Tau is a key pathology in chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE). Here, we report our findings in tau positron emission tomography (PET) measurements from the DIAGNOSE CTE Research Project. METHOD: We compare flortaucipir PET measures from 104 former professional players (PRO), 58 former college football players (COL), and 56 same-age men without exposure to repetitive head impacts (RHI) or traumatic brain injury (unexposed [UE]); characterize their associations with RHI exposure; and compare players who did or did not meet diagnostic criteria for traumatic encephalopathy syndrome (TES). RESULTS: Significantly elevated flortaucipir uptake was observed in former football players (PRO+COL) in prespecified regions (p < 0.05). Association between regional flortaucipir uptake and estimated cumulative head impact exposure was only observed in the superior frontal region in former players over 60 years old. Flortaucipir PET was not able to differentiate TES groups. DISCUSSION: Additional studies are needed to further understand tau pathology in CTE and other individuals with a history of RHI.